Monthly Archives: October 2011

ACC Football Rankings

Posted on by acaffrey

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of October 31, 2011:

1.  Clemson–The Confidential is sticking with Clemson here.  Losing to Georgia Tech was disappointing, but not disastrous.

2. Virginia Tech–hard to move the Hokies after they only barely beat Duke.

3. Georgia Tech–the win over Clemson gets things back on track.

4. Florida State–dominant win over North Carolina State suggests that better times are ahead.

5. Miami–the loss to Virginia is a step backward.

6. North Carolina– Almost moved the Tarheels ahead of Miami.  Impressive win over Wake Forest.

7.  Syracuse– Hugely disappointing loss to Louisville.  They get the edge with the win over Wake Forest.

8.  Wake Forest–Needed that North Carolina win to get to the next level.

9.  Virginia– With wins over Miami and Georgia Tech, this is the one team that may be significantly underrated at this point.  The Confidential is feeling a bit guilty here.

10. Pittsburgh– A win over UConn without their best player gets them the nod here, but it may be a short-lived stay this high.

11.  Duke–Playing the Hokies close is better than getting shellacked by the Seminoles.  We still expect NC State and Duke to flip.

12. North Carolina State–hard to not penalize a team that did not score.  I am sure the Wolfpack will rise up a few slots soon enough.

13. Boston College– the head-to-head matters, but the fact that Maryland just seems to have quit on Edsall carries the day.

14. Maryland- Beating Boston College to go to 3-5 was imperative.  This team is reeling.

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No ACC Teams in New AP Top 10

Posted on by acaffrey

The October 30, 2011, AP poll has now been released:

AP Top 25 Ranking

Rank Team Record Pts Last Week
1. LSU (47) 8-0 1439 1
2. Alabama (10) 8-0 1401 2
3. Oklahoma St. 8-0 1305 3
4. Stanford 8-0 1278 4
5. Boise St. (1) 7-0 1241 5
6. Oregon 7-1 1148 7
7. Oklahoma 7-1 1096 11
8. Arkansas 7-1 1035 8
9. Nebraska 7-1 976 13
10. South Carolina 7-1 861 14
11. Clemson 8-1 851 6
12. Virginia Tech 8-1 755 15
13. Michigan 7-1 718 17
14. Houston 8-0 611 18
15. Michigan St. 6-2 586 9
16. Penn St. 8-1 553 21
17. Kansas St. 7-1 536 10
18. Georgia 6-2 446 22
19. Wisconsin 6-2 420 12
20. Arizona St. 6-2 384 23
21. USC 6-2 323 20
22. Georgia Tech 7-2 230 NR
23. Cincinnati 6-1 128 24
24. West Virginia 6-2 111 25
25. Auburn 6-3 107 NR
Others Receiving Votes:

  • Texas 99,
  • Southern Miss 67,
  • Washington 52,
  • Ohio St. 37,
  • TCU 26,
  • Texas A&M 25,
  • Florida St. 4,
  • Notre Dame 1
ACC observations:
  • It is not at all surprising that Clemson dropped in the polls, given the loss to Georgia Tech.
  • And it is perfectly reasonable for Georgia Tech to move back into the standings at #22.
  • Despite narrowly beating Duke, Virginia Tech moved up a few spots in the standings as well.
  • And Florida State’s big win over North Carolina State has them back receiving a few votes.
  • As such, the ACC has 4 of the top 32 teams right now.  Decent, but not outstanding.
General observations:
  • Hard to disagree with the top 5 right now.
  • Boise St. is a BIG Georgia fan, needless to say.
  • Kind of surprising to see Michigan State drop below Michigan.  The Spartans just got done with a four-game stretch involving Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska.  Going 3-1 is fairly impressive.  That Notre Dame loss certainly hurts.
  • The new Big 12 has 5 of the top 30 teams.  The new SEC has 7 of the top 31 teams, including 4 in the top 10.

And then there were none… Clemson loses to Georgia Tech

Posted on by acaffrey

They say that college football is great because every week is a playoff game.  The Confidential tends to agree.  With a few exceptional situations or seasons, only undefeated teams have a chance of being one of the top two teams and, therefore, eligible to play for the national championship.  The season starts with all undefeated teams and gradually whittles its way down to just a few.  Going into Week #9, the ACC was fortunate enough to still have an undefeated team: Clemson.  After Week 9, however, the ACC has been eliminated from the national title picture because Clemson lost to Georgia Tech, 31-17.

At 7-2, the Georgia Tech win over now 8-1 Clemson should not be seen as a total surprise.  And the story should be about Georgia Tech.  Unfortunately, college football is a sport of tiers, with Clemson vying to join the top tier for 2011.  So, with all due respect to Georgia Tech, the lead on this story is Clemson losing, rather than Georgia Tech winning.

But The Confidential will give Georgia Tech its due praise.  After losing at Virginia and Miami, it looked as if the Yellow Jackets 6-0 start was a bit of a mirage.  Neither Virginia nor Miami is in the conference title picture.  With Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia remaining on the schedule, there was certainly a chance of finishing with a very mediocre season result.  In defeating Clemson, Georgia Tech took the first step towards avoiding a second-half collapse.

Amazingly, Georgia Tech was able to beat Clemson with virtually no passing game.  Although Georgia Tech does not put up significant passing numbers in most games, averaging about 120 yards per game, they only passed for 60 yards against Clemson.  That’s not a misprint.  60 yards.  Instead, this win was a product of 300 rushing yards, with more than half coming from quarterback Tevin Washington.  Although he has averaged about 60 yards per game rushing, Washington ran for 174 yards against Clemson.

Another story was turnovers.  As it often the case with a football game at any level, Clemson’s four turnovers told much of the story. In the first quarter, Clemson recovered a punt at its own 36 yard line.  On the second play, it fumbled, allowing Georgia Tech to start a drive at the 19 yard line.   This led to a touchdown.  After intercepting a Georgia Tech pass in the fourth quarter in a two-possession game, Clemson had the ball at the Georgia Tech 9-yard line.  On the very next play, Clemson threw an interception.  Give Georgia Tech credit though.  After getting that 4th quarter interception, they marched the ball down the field in a drive consuming nearly 9 minutes of fourth-quarter time.  Even though that drive did not result in a score, it gave Clemson too little time to mount a comeback.

And just like that, the ACC’s hopes of having a team in the national title game evaporated.  Clemson remains in the hunt for a BCS bowl appearance.  The November 10 matchup between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech will go a long way towards determining who plays in the ACC championship game.

 

Boston College Gets First 2011 ACC Win

Posted on by acaffrey

This has been a tough season for Boston College.  No doubt about it. After going bowling last year, Boston College traveled to College Park to take on a Maryland team that has been only slightly better this year.  This made-for-radio battle between two struggling teams was Boston College’s best remaining chance for a win over an FBS school and a conference win.  To its credit, Boston College rose to the occasion and beat Maryland, 28-17.

In fairness, Boston College has been playing without standout running back, Montel Harris.  Harris had nearly 3,600 rushing yards coming into this season.  Today’s win was fueled by 243 yards of rushing from sophomore Rolandan Finch.  Finch nearly doubled his season rushing output in this one game.

With the weather inclement, Boston College was unable to mount any type of passing game.  Boston College attempted 12 passes for only 32 yards.  That is not a misprint–32 yards of passing!  This Boston College run was all about the running game.  With Finch and Andre Williams combining for more than 300 yards of rushing.

For Maryland, the season just gets worse.  Maryland drops to 2-6 overall, with wins against a suspension-depleted Miami team opening week and FCS Towson.  This was the fourth straight conference loss for the Terrapins.  Of course, the first three losses were against unbeaten Clemson, highly ranked Georgia Tech, and Florida St.  But today’s loss got the much-easier final stretch of games off to a poor start.

In fact, it will be interesting to see what the fan reaction to Randy Edsall will be.  Working in Edsall’s favor is the fact that Maryland was 2-10 in 2009.  However, sandwiched around that season were bowl games.  This is not a historically bad season, as was the case with Rich Rodriguez in Michigan, who never could recover the confidence of the fan base after a very poor first year.  But Maryland was 9-4 last year and went bowling.  The fan base has a basis to argue that the cupboard could not have been THAT bare.  Should be interesting times in College Park as the season winds down.

Tarheels Top Preseason AP Poll

Posted on by acaffrey

The Preseason AP poll has been released and the North Carolina Tarheels were ranked #1.

The Complete Poll is as follows:

1. N. Carolina (62), 1,620
2. Kentucky, 1,501
3. Ohio St. (1), 1,482
4. UConn (2), 1,433
5. Syracuse, 1,338
6. Duke, 1,301
7. Vanderbilt, 1,120
8. Florida, 1,086
9. Louisville, 1,055
10. Pittsburgh, 1,027
11. Memphis, 997
12. Baylor, 892
13. Kansas, 755
14. Xavier, 747
15. Wisconsin, 720
16. Arizona, 616
17. UCLA, 404
18. Michigan, 401
19. Alabama, 395
20. Texas A&M, 357
21. Cincinnati, 353
22. Marquette, 335
23. Gonzaga, 283
24. California, 230
25. Missouri, 139
Others receiving votes: Florida St. 131, Michigan St. 128, Temple 69, Washington 44, New Mexico 33, Butler 25, Texas 21, Villanova 14, Creighton 12, Purdue 10, Belmont 8, Drexel 8, UNLV 7, Saint Mary’s (Cal) 6, George Mason 5, West Virginia 4, Long Beach St. 3, Miami 3, Harvard 2, Illinois 2, Marshall 1, Minnesota 1, San Diego St. 1.

The future version of the ACC has 4 of the top 10 teams, but nobody else in the top 25.  And of the four teams ranked in the top 10, Syracuse and Pitt are so ranked as current members of the Big East.  That makes the conference both top-heavy and weak heading into the season.  A few teams are going to need to have surprising seasons for the conference to generate respect.  Interestingly, perennial football powers Florida St. and Miami were among the others receiving votes.

It is notable that, even removing Big East defectors Syracuse, Pitt, and (now) West Virginia, the Big East still has the #4 team (UConn), the #9 team (Louisville), the #21 team (Cincinnati), the #22 team (Marquette), and Villanova also receiving votes.  The addition of Pitt and Syracuse to the ACC will undoubtedly even the gap in future seasons.

Expansion Sooner?

Posted on by acaffrey

The Big XII’s decision to accept West Virginia to get to 10 schools seemingly does not involve the ACC.  To be sure, The Confidential was a bit more supportive than others of the ACC taking a look at pairing West Virginia with Notre Dame someday.  But most prognosticators believed Rutgers or UConn to be the extra-point to any future addition of Notre Dame.

Where this DOES impact the ACC is that West Virginia is reportedly confident that it can leave the Big East in time to join the Big XII for 2012.   That is news.  There is talk that this is an issue that can be resolved by sheer money, with Pitt being offered the chance to leave earlier for $21 million.  It is difficult to envision a scenario where $21 million is a sensible amount to pay to leave 17 months early.  However, this does suggest that Pitt and Syracuse may be able to extract themselves from the Big East sooner than expected.  If so, the ACC will be “whole” in time for 2012.

There is little doubt that the ACC has contingency plans in place for a 2012 start to a 14-team ACC.  It may actually happen.

NCAA Rules Changes

Posted on by acaffrey

The NCAA has approved some rather radical changes to its rules.

First, the NCAA has allowed schools the ability to add $2,000 to a scholarship.  This would help prevent student-athletes from having a shortfall between the cost of attending a school and what the school is allowed to pride.

The Confidential believes that this rule is long overdue.  For the most part, student-athletes are not allowed to earn income.  That’s a pretty unfortunate Catch-22… money needed, but no ability to earn money.  While some student-athletes have parents that can make up the gap, many other student-athletes do not.  Moreover, $40/week is hardly going to lead to craziness.  I think this is a great move.  Granted, this will not stop boosters from abusing the system.  But I have to figure that having a little spending money has to have some positive impact on temptation.  We’ll give the NCAA an A.

Also, it is noted that the NCAA hopes that this rule will be adopted on a conference-by-conference basis.  The Mac could vote to make it $500.  The Sun Belt could opt against it.  It is certainly expect that the wealthier conferences will not hesitate to take advantage of this.  This will likely lead to a further gap between the AQ schools and the non-AQ schools.  But conferring this benefit on student-athletes, which will remedy a present unfairness, is worth that risk.

Second, individual schools can choose to award multiyear scholarships, which may not be revoked based on performance.  The Confidential is less sure about this one.  For one, who decides what “revoked based on performance” means?  If a kid with an attitude problem does not perform well, he could rather easily be dismissed from the team for “improper conduct.”  That same conduct with a star could be ignored.  I tend to think this will lead to litigation.

That being said, the absence of multiyear scholarships is absurd.  A student-athlete is punished for transferring.  However, a university can revoke a scholarship at will.  And that usually occurs to allow a better player to have the scholarship.  That is patently unfair.  It sends the wrong message.  Also, I think this rule will also work against the AQ schools in recruiting.  If a Houston can offer a student a 4-year scholarship, but Texas Tech will only offer a 1-year scholarship, this may offset any differences regarding stipends.  This is a benefit to the true student-athletes.  All in all, it is hard to quibble with the rule change.  We’ll give the NCAA a B+.

Third, there will now be a rule that schools that fail to meet the Academic Progress Rate benchmark will be ineligible for playoffs, tournaments, and bowl games.  The devil is in the details.  The 4-year phase in is helpful.   There is going to be some pain here.  The Confidential needs to see how this gets implemented before giving it anything more than a C.  The fear is that this will punish schools whose players leave through no fault of the school.  On the other hand, it does emphasize recruiting players who are going to at least do the minimum as students.

Fourth, incoming freshmen will now need a 2.3 GPA, rather than 2.0 GPA.   The Confidential gives this a D.   The difference between 2.3 and 2.0 is meaningless.  Grades vary.  Integrity in grading varies.  The Confidential would rather see the schools create programs to bring the student-athletes with subpar academics UP to par, rather than just exclude them.

Finally, there were some rule changes regarding basketball recruiting activity periods and types of contact.  Again, while attempting to correct problems with recruiting, it remains to be seen whether this will just lead to new problems.  This deserves an incomplete.

In sum, The Confidential gives the NCAA rules an aggregate grade point average of 2.58.   Not exactly demonstrating a good example…

Big Tests This Saturday

Posted on by acaffrey

There are a number of interesting games this Saturday.

College football is about having elite teams.  Having a 9-3 conference champion may show that your league has parity, but the nation only cares about the undefeated teams.  Clemson has a chance of reaching that elite status this year, which would be huge for the ACC.  This week, Clemson will be tested by Georgia Tech.  While the Yellow Jackets are reeling right now, they are a formidable foe.  The league would benefit from having Clemson win this game.  And win out until the conference championship game.

In the 1990′s, Florida State could be counted on for 10 and 11 win seasons.  Now?  Not so much.  A game against North Carolina State is the type of game that the old Florida State would handle. The ACC needs Florida State to return to elite status.  Losing a game like this is another step in the wrong direction.

Wake Forest has been a surprise team this year.  After narrowly losing to Syracuse in the opener, Wake Forest has acquitted itself well this year.  North Carolina did well out-of-conference, but has struggled within the conference.  This should be a great matchup.

Boston College v Maryland is not a good game because of the prowess of the two schools.  But it may represent Boston College’s best chance of winning a conference game this year.  Recall that Maryland lost to Temple.  And it was not even close.

Virginia Tech gets Duke.  Duke is improved this year, so Virginia Tech has to be careful.  The Hokies’ can occasionally be vulnerable in games that the rest of the country considers “easy wins.”

After losing to Maryland in the opener, Miami has done reasonably well this year.  The ACC needs Miami to step up and win the winnable games.  While Virginia is on the upswing, the ACC needs its elite programs to return to prominence.

For the new members, Syracuse heads to Louisville this week.  For ACC fans, the rooting interest is easy.  A return to national respectability for Syracuse will help the conference.

And congrats to Pitt for beating UConn in a rare Wednesday night game.  I am sure Pitt will not miss having to play midweek games.

The Notre Dame Elephant

Posted on by acaffrey

The proverbial elephant in the conference realignment room remains: Notre Dame.  If Notre Dame says it is ready to join a conference, you can expect the Big 10 and the ACC to start recruiting.  Notre Dame to the conferences is like Lebron James times Sid Crosby to the power of Peyton Manning.  The reasons why the Big 10 and the ACC would want Notre Dame do not need to be listed.

But why would Notre Dame consider the ACC?

Well, we all know that Notre Dame is not on the Atlantic Coast.  Or near it.  Or near ANY coast for that matter.  So there is a poor geographic fit, compared to the Big 10.

Also, Notre Dame has a history of playing the nearby Big 10 schools, especially Michigan, Michigan St. and Purdue.  And the ACC cannot match the Big 10 and its lucrative Big 10 network dollar-for-dollar.

However, contrary to the opinions of your garden-variety Internet troll, Notre Dame is not all about the money.  Notre Dame is all about its football independence.  Notre Dame’s NBC contract allows it to remain independent.  They would get a a raise jumping to the Big 10.  But that would compromise football independence.

Why does Notre Dame care about football independence?  Because it sees itself as a national school.  They want to be seen in the Northeast, Southeast, Southwest, and West.  Their main rival is USC–a home and home between California and South Bend.  They are going to play Navy every year.  A game that gives them some visibility in the mid-Atlantic.  They want games in New York City, as evidenced by agreements to play Army and Syracuse in that market.  They will gladly play against Boston College, Stanford, Texas, Georgia Tech,  and Miami.  When you are not confined to a conference schedule, you have the freedom to play a unique schedule every year.  This is HUGE.  It is huge for the alumni.  It is huge for recruiting.  It is Notre Dame.

This is also a strength of the ACC.  The ACC stretches from Boston to Miami.  Notre Dame’s home games cover the Midwest.  It’s away games could include, in any season, trips to Boston, New York City (Syracuse or UConn or Rutgers), the DC area, the Carolinas, Atlanta, and Florida.  That is quite a stretch of real estate.  Throw in a game against USC in California and you’ve got the West coast.  Perhaps when home against USC, Notre Dame could schedule the Navy game for San Diego or play Stanford or Washington.   They already have Texas on the OOC slate.

In the Big 10, Notre Dame would get its 6 or 7 home games, with perhaps only Penn State representing an opportunity to get East Coast viewership.  The addition of Rutgers with Notre Dame would help.  But that is still 9 or 10 games with a Midwest focus.  I have to give the edge to the ACC.

Academically, both the Big 10 and ACC are excellent.  The Big 10 is primarily state schools that focus on research.  The Notre Dame philosophy is closer to Syracuse in that regard than Northwestern (who does several times more research than Notre Dame or Syracuse).  Plus, an ACC with Notre Dame would have several private schools.  The fit is there for Notre Dame.

Nobody knows if or when Notre Dame will join any conference, much less the ACC.  But the ACC has a very real chance of landing Notre Dame someday…

As Lee Corso would say… “NOT SO FAST” West Virginia…

Posted on by acaffrey

Apparently, West Virginia to the Big XII has hit a snag.  According to ESPN:

West Virginia has been notified by the Big 12 Conference that its expansion process is on hold, a school source told ESPN’s Joe Schad on Wednesday.

The Big 12 is waiting on Missouri formally to withdraw from the conference and that there has been some late “hard lobbying” by Louisville for Big 12 inclusion, the source told Schad.

Interestingly, it looks like politics is becoming a factor, as Kentucky’s politicians are getting involved.   This conference realignment stuff has always been very heated.

The ACC knows firsthand about this.  Recall the expansion efforts to include Syracuse and Boston College that were derailed (temporarily in both cases) when Virginia politics got involved.

This could get ugly.