The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the month “September, 2012”

26 Sep 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 5

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams. Last week was a bit better at 10-1… making it a 39-9 start to the season.  It is going to get much worse this week.  Only 2 games are such that upsets are very unlikely.  A lot of surprising wins can happen.  On to the week 5 predictions:

September 29, 2012

Middle Tennessee (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-2), 12:00 p.m.  The Yellow Jackets are 0-2 in conference play, with both being very close games.  One has to think that Georgia Tech will take out its frustrations on this week’s sacrificial lamb, a directional Tennessee school.  Fortunately, Middle Tennessee is not in the Mac.  So Georgia Tech should win easily.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 40, Middle Tennessee 13.

North Carolina State (3-1) @ Miami (3-1), 12:00 p.m.  One of these teams is headed to a 4-1 record.  As such, this is a statement game for both teams.  Miami has given up a lot of points to the FBS teams on its schedule.  Then again, North Carolina State gave up about as many to Tennessee.  This is a close one, but the edge goes to the home team here.  Prediction: Miami 26, North Carolina State 21.

Duke (3-1) @ Wake Forest (3-1), 12:30 p.m.  Another great matchup for the ACC, as North Carolina rivals Duke and Wake Forest will battle to see who gets to 4-1.  While Duke is much improved this year, Wake Forest seems like the better team.  Again, do not be surprised by an upset.  It’s just hard to pick the road team here.  Prediction: Wake Forest 24, Duke 17.

#17 Clemson (3-1) @ Boston College (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Clemson struggled last year after the first loss and this makes Boston College a sneaky upset pick.  But Clemson is (hopefully) a better team from a mental standpoint this year.  If not, it’s going to be a long season.  Prediction: Clemson 34, Boston College 13.

Idaho (0-4) @ North Carolina (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  North Carolina has beaten the patsies and lost to the decent teams.  Idaho is not a decent team.  Prediction: North Carolina 38, Idaho 11.

Louisiana Tech (3-0) @ Virginia (2-2), 3:30 p.m.  Louisiana Tech averages more than 50 points a game.  Something is in the water this year in Louisiana–just look at what Louisiana-Monroe has been doing.  And La Tech destroyed Illinois.  Virginia has been very disappointing this year.  This is an upset special.  Louisiana Tech 33, Virginia 24.

Virginia Tech (3-1) @ Cincinnati (2-0), 3:30 p.m.   Cincinnati looked good while beating Pitt, who now looks to have righted the ship.  This is Cincinnati’s only real test until late October.  A win here could mean that the Bearcats are 6-0 when returning to conference play at that point.  The Hokies looked awful in losing to Pitt.  Cincinnati on the road will be a more hostile environment.  Sorry, Hokies.  This aint your year.  Prediction: Cincinnati 30, Virginia Tech 21.

#4 Florida State (4-0) @ South Florida (2-2), 6:00 p.m.  The good news for South Florida fans is that this game is not being played on a Thursday.  The bad news is that this game is being played against Florida State.  However, the Bulls should be fired up for this one.  Florida State has to avoid the inevitable let down that follows a game like Clemson.  This one may be close simply because the energy of the Bulls is too much early for the Seminoles to handle, requiring a second half rally to make it close.  Or Skip Holtz is just in over his head and the Seminoles will trash them.  Leaning towards the latter.  Prediction: Florida State 42, South Florida 20.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
25 Sep 2012

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25 & Bottom 4: Week 5

Each week, the Confidential will provide its ranking of the top 25 teams in College Football, as well as the Bottom 4 BCS-level teams.  Here is the Week 5 version, with analysis of the top 15 and bottom 4:

  1. Alabama (4-0): Alabama went easy on Florida Atlantic.  Good for them.  They still won by 30+.  Next up: Mississippi.
  2. Florida State (4-0): Nobody in the top 3 has a better win than Florida State, with the Clemson win.  They are outscoring opponents now by a mere 55-10.   Next up: @ South Florida.
  3. LSU (4-0):  The Tigers struggled to beat the Tigers.  Typical SEC game.  Oh yeah–the LSU Tigers beat the Auburn Tigers 12-10.  Next up: Towson.
  4. Oregon (4-0): The Ducks looked very good in dispatching Arizona.  They shut out a Rich Rodriguez-coached team.  Nice.  Next up: @ Washington State.
  5. Kansas State (4-0): Kansas State has beaten top 5 Oklahoma, in Oklahoma, and destroyed 3-1 Miami.  Anyone have a better resume?  Next up: Kansas.
  6. Georgia (4-0): Took Vanderbilt to the cleaners, 48-3.  Georgia is looking like a solid #3 team in the SEC.  Next up: Tennessee.
  7. Notre Dame (4-0): The Fighting Irish beat Navy in Ireland, Purdue, Michigan State, and Michigan.  Pretty impressive set of wins.  Next up: Michigan.
  8. South Carolina (4-0): The Gamecocks had little trouble with Missouri.  Welcome to the SEC, Mizzou!   Next up: @ Kentucky.
  9. West Virginia (3-0): In its first real challenge of the season, West Virginia allowed Maryland to hang around.  Need to turn it up a notch in the Big XII.  Next up: Baylor.
  10. Stanford (3-0): Stanford got the week off.  They play a Thursday game against the Huskies in Washington this week.  Next up: @ Washington.
  11. Florida (4-0): The Gators are beating up on the middling teams of the SEC.  Up next is LSU on October 6th.  Next up: Idle.
  12. Louisville (4-0): Louisville was not exactly dominant against FIU–a team that Duke handled.  At least it was a road game.  Next up: @ Southern Mississippi.
  13. Clemson (3-1): Clemson did well against Florida State, all things considered.  They need to avoid the losing streak of last year though.  Next up: Boston College.
  14. Ohio State (4-0).  Ohio State still hasn’t really played anyone good.  This changes immediately.  Next up: @ Michigan State.
  15. TCU (3-0).  The Horned Frogs looked very good against Virginia.  Have you looked at TCU’s last four games on the season?  Wow.  Next up: @ SMU.
  16. Texas (3-0). Next up: @ Oklahoma State.
  17. Oklahoma (2-1): Next up: Idle.
  18. USC (3-1). Next up: @ Utah.
  19. Michigan State (3-1). Next up: Ohio State.
  20. Oregon State (2-0).  Next up: @ Arizona.
  21. Northwestern (4-0). Next up: Indiana.
  22. Mississippi State (4-0).  Next up: Idle.
  23. Virginia Tech (3-1). Next up: Cincinnati.
  24. Michigan (2-2): Next up: @ Purdue.
  25. Rutgers (4-0). Next up: Idle.

* * *

121. Syracuse (1-3).  Syracuse has played a brutal schedule of USC, Northwestern, and Minnesota (away).  Still, the only Orange victory was against FCS Stony Brook, 28-17.

122. Temple (1-2).  The win over Villanova was nice.  And Penn State and Maryland are improved.  Still–only victory is over an FCS foe.

123. Boston College (1-2).  Boston College has lost to Miami and Northwestern.  No shame in that.  The only victory is over FCS New Hampshire, not exactly a power.

124. Arkansas (1-3).  Arkansas has officially collapsed.  The only win is over an FCS foe.  With its starting QB, they are dominated by Rutgers.  This should not happen to a good SEC team at home.

So there it is.  If you do not like it… sorry.  But feel free to share your reasons why…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
24 Sep 2012

ACC Football Rankings: September 24, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC football teams as of September 24, 2012:

1.  Florida State (4-0)–The Confidential was wise to slide Florida State up over Clemson BEFORE the two teams met.  Florida State has proven that they are a legitimate national championship contender.

2. Clemson (3-1)–Clemson played well enough against Florida State to keep its #2 ranking.  The fact that Auburn played LSU so tough helps also.

3. Virginia Tech (3-1)–The Pitt loss remains a puzzle.  Beating Bowling Green was nice, but unimpressive.  Actually, the way the MAC performed on Saturday, it actually is impressive.

4. Miami (3-1)–The Hurricanes did what they needed to in beating Georgia Tech on the road.  That makes Miami 2-0 in road conference games.  That will work.

5. Wake Forest (3-1)–The Demon Deacons overcame the difficult loss to Florida State by beating Army, 49-37.  Not sure if giving up 89 points total in consecutive games is a stat that can continue.

6. North Carolina State (3-1)–The win over Citadel works.  Next up… Miami and Florida State.  Uh-oh.

7. Duke (3-1)–Duke has beaten exactly nobody.  But they have beaten three teams.

8. Georgia Tech (2-2)–Losing to Virginia Tech and Miami used to be a regular event for teams.  This year, both teams have head scratching losses that weaken the Georgia Tech profile.

9. Maryland (2-2)–Credit to Maryland for hanging tough at West Virginia.  They also deserve credit for playing 3 BCS conference foes in their OOC slate.

10. Virginia (2-2)–Virginia expected this season to be a good one, as demonstrated by games against Penn State and TCU.  So far, Virginia is really not looking like a top ACC team.

11.  Pitt (2-2)–Of the four 2-2 teams, Pitt has the worst loss.   Of the four 1-2 teams, Pitt has the best win.  Not going to drop them behind North Carolina.

12. North Carolina (2-2)–North Carolina has beaten Elon and East Carolina.  Not sure if there are any middling e-named teams left for them to play.

13. Syracuse (1-3)(tie)–Syracuse looked bad against Minnesota, but kept it to a reasonable 17-10 final tally.  Orange opponents are a combined 14-2 on the season… meaning 11-1 in games not involving the ‘Cuse.

13. Boston College (1-2)(tie)–Idle this week.  No reason to separate the two ACC rivals.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
23 Sep 2012
3 Comments

ACC Football Week 4 Recap

Well, with Week 4 in the books, here is how it all went down in ACC-land:

GOOD NEWS:

Florida State looks to be IS for real.  The Seminoles may not have been able to hold Clemson to just a few points, but Clemson is far from Murray State.  The important thing is that Florida State did not squander the opportunity to take it to the next level.  Giving up 37 points to Clemson is tough to swallow as a good effort–but Clemson is a really good offensive team.  Too many playmakers to not be.  EJ Manuel and the Seminoles putting up 49 points is a nice sign too.  It’s all good for another week in Tallahassee after the 49-37 victory.

Clemson also established itself as the #2 team in the ACC with its very competitive performance against FSU.  Recall that Clemson did not fare well the last time it played in Florida.  The offense is for real.  The defense giving up 49 points is a concern.  But do not expect Clemson to finish 8-4 this year.  They are a legitimate threat to stay in the top 15 all year.

Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, Duke, and North Carolina all took care of their overmatched opponents.  Ask Pitt about how it feels to get upset.  Actually, let’s give Pitt some props for defeating Gardner-Webb by a comfortable margin this week as well.

Wake Forest’s 49-37 victory over Army was good in that the Demon Deacons got the needed win.  The 517 yards of offense was pretty nice too.

THE OK NEWS:

The Miami-Georgia Tech game was one of mixed emotions.  On the one hand, Miami’s 42-36 win in overtime means that the Hurricanes are now 2-0 in conference and 3-1 overall.  And they have yet to play a home conference game.  And that Kansas State loss looks a touch better now that KSU beat Oklahoma.  But Miami’s gain is Georgia Tech‘s loss.  The Yellow Jackets were down big, rallied nice, and then lost.  At 2-2 and 0-2 in conference play, things are looking a bit down right now.  Still, there is plenty of time to rally for a nice bowl game.

Maryland may not have won, but nobody expected the game to be close.  A 31-21 loss to the #8 Mountaineers is rather plainly a moral victory for the Terps.  Take it and run.

THE BAD NEWS:

Virginia was a very good team last year.  This year… not so much.  While Virginia was going to be an underdog against ranked TCU, a 27-7 loss is disappointing.  The hope was that the game would be competitive.  It was not.

Syracuse looked overmatched and ineffective against Minnesota, losing 17-10.  While Syracuse’s opponents are a combined 14-2, it would have been nice for the Orange to be 2-2 hitting its bye week.  It is not.

On to Week #4…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
21 Sep 2012

Notre Dame, Penn State and the ACC: Part I

Over at Frank the Tank’s blog, the great commentariat has been analyzing whether the Big 10 expansion to include Nebraska was sufficient.  One of the topics being thrown around is whether Penn State would leave the Big 10 if it did not get a conference partner in the region, such as Rutgers.  Needless to say, the ideas that Penn State would leave the Big 10 or that adding Rutgers to the Big 10 would improve the conference led to a vigorous response.  However, the Confidential cannot help but wonder whether the Notre Dame addition to the ACC could help justify the addition of Penn State.

As a preliminary matter, the Confidential needs to begin by clearly stating that Penn State is not at all likely to leave the Big 10.  How can it?  Penn State gains on so many levels from its Big 10 membership that it would be difficult for any leader to recommend such a move.  And, oh yeah, the money is pretty darn good too.  How does a leader recommend a revenue cut in these tough economic times?  Good luck with that.  So we are delving into the borderline impossible here.

Of course, imagining a football conference with ND, Penn State, Pitt, Maryland, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Syracuse, and BC in the North…wow.  That sure would have to be the “football” move that schools like Florida State and Clemson would love, right?   Penn State will be down for several years, but the school has the infrastructure to be immediately relevant again.  Too much talent in Pennsylvania for Penn State to NOT be a great program.  With a purely geographical split, play 7 division games, plus 2 crossovers… and now you are playing every school, every four years.  It’s hard not to get excited by that.  Increased attendance by having division games with regional appeal.   Increased TV ratings with having more hated rivals on the schedule.

The Confidential questions whether the Grant of Rights is the reason why a Penn State a move to the ACC is impossible.  As the Confidential understands it, the Grant of Rights means that the TV rights to Penn State’s home games belong to the Big 10 for many years.  So, in theory, if Penn State left the Big 10 for the ACC, that Florida State @ Penn State game would be a featured game for the Big 10 Network that week.  And Penn State would get none of that revenue.  Of course, the Big 10 Network would never be foolish enough to pass up that game.  You think Florida State fans would not have an interest in the Big 10 Network that weekend?  Actually, Penn State going to the ACC would be a big boost for the Big 10 Network if that’s where all Penn State’s home games were televised for 20 years.  Penn State fans would still get to see those home games on TV.

True, the ACC would lose the right to receive the TV revenue from Penn State home games until the Grant of Rights expired.  HOWEVER, the ACC just reached a deal with Notre Dame that allows for 2-3 home games for ACC teams.  And the thought process is that this will ADD value to the ACC contract.  The Confidential cannot help but wonder… if 2-3 home games per year featuring Notre Dame adds value to  the TV contract, wouldn’t 4-5 road games at ACC sites featuring Penn State add to the ACC contract too?  From the ACC’s perspective the Grant of Rights is not any worse than the Notre Dame deal.

So the only real question is how to make it work for Penn State.  If they are leaving the Big 10, they are losing their Big 10 revenue.  Instead, they would be getting a partial share of the ACC TV revenue, which is far worse for them than a full share of the Big 10 revenue.  Again, no university could ever accept that.  Unless the ACC schools were willing to give Penn State a full share while awaiting the expiration of the Grant of Rights–which would still be quite a revenue shave for Penn State–it is simply impossible to fathom how Penn State could make such a move.

So the only way to make this work is for the ACC to do something truly radical.

In Part II of this article, the Confidential will explore whether there is a radical way for the ACC to finance the unrealistic, nearly impossible, and purely hypothetical addition of Penn State.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , , ,
20 Sep 2012

Reports: Orange Bowl Deal Finalized

CBS Sportsline is reporting that the Orange Bowl deal has been finalized.  According to the report: “The ACC champion will play the highest-ranked team among Notre Dame and available teams from the SEC and Big Ten beginning after the 2014 season.  As the article notes, this deal secures the ACC within the five power conferences that will be dividing most of the college football money.

Left unsaid, of course, is how it will be determined that an SEC or Big Ten team is “available.”  Nevertheless, even the 3rd or 4th best team in these two conferences will present an outstanding gate/matchup for the Orange Bowl.  Georgia-Virginia Tech anyone?  Clemson-Nebraska?  Florida State-Michigan?  LSU-Miami?  Notre Dame-Wisconsin?  Yeah, the ACC and the Orange Bowl will be fine.

The report also notes at length the way the playoff structure will work in just a few years.  There will be ample tie-ins for the 5 major conferences, and then six more slots reserved for all teams.  If it is 6 SEC teams in the top 12, so be it.  If it is 3 teams from the Big East, so be it.  Everyone will have the same access and it will be filled based on merit.  Or, at the very least, the merit as determined by human beings.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Football, Orange Bowl and tagged , , , , ,
20 Sep 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 4

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.

Last week was a bit better at 10-1… making it a 28-8 start to the season.  On to week 4,where things will get a little tougher matchup-wise:

September 22, 2012

Bowling Green (1-2) @ Virginia Tech (2-1), noon.  Virginia Tech has to be embarrassed by last week.  The last time the Hokies were embarrassed (James Madison), they won 11 straight.  You cannot predict a loss here.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Bowling Green 14.

Maryland (2-1) @ #8 West Virginia (2-0), noon.   The records say “close game.”  The names have historically suggested “close game.”  While West Virginia has played nobody so far, Maryland’s 2-1 is more imaginary than a cartoon character seeing a mirage of an oasis in the desert.  The only question is whether West Virginia agrees to a running clock in the second half.  Prediction: West Virginia 49, Maryland 10.

Virginia (2-1) @ #17 TCU (2-0), noon.  Before the season, this looked like an upset special.  But Virginia has been underwhelming.  Sure, TCU has to play at 11:00 a.m. local time.  That might help keep it close.  Prediction: TCU 30, Virginia 20.

Army (0-2) @ Wake Forest (2-1), 12:30 p.m.  Wake Forest need not be embarrassed by last week’s loss to Florida State.  They need to forget about it and move on.  This is a team that can win 8 or 9 games if things go right.  It all starts against Army.  Prediction: Wake Forest 21, Army 10.

Miami (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-1), 3:00 p.m.  Georgia Tech narrowly lost to a now-questionable Virginia Tech, and looked great in pasting Virginia.  Miami was obliterated by Kansas State, who was only OK against North Texas.  Miami did beat Boston College.  Everything about this suggests Georgia Tech.  Hmmm…. but the Confidential would never place an actual bet on this game.  A hunch that Miami will win–there always seems to be one Georgia Tech or Miami game that is entirely unpredictable.  This may be it.  Despite that, with all meekness and shame, the official prediction is Georgia Tech 38, Miami 34 (OT).

Gardner-Webb (0-3) @ Pitt (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Given that few teams have ever lost to an FCS team once, the odds of Pitt losing to two FCS teams one year is pretty slim.  The win over Va Tech means that if the impossible does happen, the coaching staff would survive to the following Monday.  What would have been an “absolute must win” becomes merely a “must win.”  They have to, right?  Prediction: Pitt 35, Gardner-Webb 10.

East Carolina (2-1) @ North Carolina (1-2), 3:30 p.m.  Once upon a time there was a colony named Carolina.  And then it divided into North Carolina and East Carolina.  And that’s how East Carolina became the 14th colony.  Look it up.  Anyway, returning to reality… North Carolina rallied nicely against Louisville and only barely lost to Wake Forest.  East Carolina has looked decent too.  This could be a very good game.  Prediction: North Carolina 31, East Carolina 21.

Memphis (0-3) @ Duke (2-1), 6:00 p.m.  This game is the opposite of FSU-Clemson.  Memphis is one of the worst football teams in FBS.  Anyone willing to bet lunch money on them being a top FCS team?  Did not think so.   Memphis has lost to three teams called Tennessee-Martin, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee State (bonus points if you know which one was the FCS school).  Meanwhile, Duke has hardly been a football powerhouse.  But Duke has scored 50 points per game in its two wins.  That’s 50 per game!  Big 10 basketball teams wish they could score like that!  No reason for that trend to stop now.  Prediction: Duke 50, Memphis 21 17 20ish (does it matter?).

Citadel (3-0) @ North Carolina State (2-1), 6:00 p.m.  North Carolina State is a good FBS team.  Citadel (is it The Citadel or not?) is a good FCS team.  This one may be closer than desired for a while, but NC State should pull away right about the time everyone is ready to switch over to the big game of the night.  Prediction: North Carolina State 34, Citadel 17.

Syracuse (1-2) @ Minnesota (3-0), 8:00 p.m.  Minnesota’s three wins are not that impressive: UNLV in OT, New Hampshire, and Western Michigan.  But Syracuse’s one win was even less impressive, and that U.S.C. loss now looks less like a “moral victory.”  Nobody should be surprised if Syracuse wins.  But the Confidential has to ignore the heart and recognize the brain saying “home team wins.”  Prediction: Minnesota 31, Syracuse 28.

#10 Clemson (3-0) @ #4 Florida State (3-0), 8:00 p.m.  Clemson looked great in defeating Auburn (suspect win now), Ball State (meh), and Furman (sub-meh).  Florida State has looked outstanding in defeating Murray State (yawn), Savannah State (running clock anyone?), and Wake Forest (nice).  Florida State has outscored its opponents by something like 176-3.  They are on pace to give up 12 points.  14 if they win out.  When Florida State was great, it was defense.  The glory days ended in 2001.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State allowed 200 or more points in just 4 seasons.  And three of those were 206 points or less.  See here.  From 2001 to 2011, Florida State allowed less than 200 points only twice.  You get the picture.

The Confidential appreciates that Clemson has two mega-playmakers in Boyd and Watkins.  But Florida State should be able to, at the very least, contain them.  The real question will be whether Florida State can put up points against Clemson.  Given that FSU is averaging 60 points a game, while Clemson allowed 23 PPG to Auburn and Ball State, FSU should be able to score enough.  This is FSU’s time to return to glory.  The Seminoles just need to reach out and grab it, avoiding the self-inflicted wounds of the past.  Also, if Swofford has any common sense at all… Florida State should get a few calls this time.  Prediction: Florida State 34, Clemson 23.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
19 Sep 2012

ACC To Determine Notre Dame’s 5 Football Opponents

The announcement of the ACC partnership with Notre Dame was accompanied by news that Notre Dame would play 5 opponents per year, as well as every team every there years.  ACC commissioner John Swofford explained recently that the ACC, rather than Notre Dame, will have the decision as to which 5 opponents Notre Dame plays every year:

Q: How will you allocate the five Notre Dame football games to your conference members?

A: It’s up to the ACC to do that. Notre Dame will accept whatever five games the ACC gives them on any given year. Conceptually what we intend to do is rotate through the entire membership — 14 schools for those five games. We do have some teams that currently have contracts with Notre Dame and we need to take a look at that. We would like to accomplish this without disrupting those particular games that are currently under contract. But once we reach a clean point the idea is to rotate the games through the membership. So that every school knows they will get Notre Dame once every three years either in their home stadium or at Notre Dame.

This, of course, is notably different from the Notre Dame “promise” to schedule 3 games a year against Big East teams.  What has been negotiated is Notre Dame limiting itself to 7 games it can schedule and leaving the rest up to the ACC.

While nobody should be under the illusion that the ACC will make these scheduling decisions in total disregard for Notre Dame’s interests, the bottom line is that the deal between the ACC and Notre Dame is quite an acquiescence by Notre Dame.  After all, Notre Dame could have requested the right to determine its opponents each year.  In any event, this allows the ACC to schedule every team, every three years… plus allow one team to play Notre Dame twice in that period.

It will be interesting to see how this impacts the already-existing contracts between Notre Dame and ACC schools.  Even Swofford has no idea how that will work out yet.  Stay tuned.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference News, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , ,
19 Sep 2012
2 Comments

The NCAA: Screwing Student-Athletes Whenever Possible

With the denial of John Raymon’s transfer waiver request, the NCAA has proven that, once again, it is a completely out-of-touch organization looking out for everyone EXCEPT the student-athletes it purports to care about.  The Confidential does not know all the details of why Raymon sought a waiver and does not care.  The bottom line is that a kid of roughly 20-years-old was denied the right of changing his mind in a way that virtually no other segment of American society has to endure. If he was a 50-year-old coach, the move from Iowa to Syracuse would be swift and without penalty.

Look, the Confidential understands the transfer rule generally.  If there was no transfer penalty, then the recruitment process would be ongoing year-after-year for players already on rosters.  If that happened, every star player at Iowa State could be “recruited” to finish his final two seasons at Nebraska.  And so on.  That’s just not how American society chooses to operate.

Except… that is EXACTLY how American society chooses to operate.  If an accountant wants to leave his firm, he can give two weeks notice.  If a lawyer wants to start her own practice, she can give two weeks notice and do so.  If an engineering major wants to transfer from Iowa State to Nebraska, he or she can do so without having to defer pondering differential equations for one year.  If the President of Iowa State wants to become the President of Nebraska, he can do so without “sitting out a year.”

Of course, the response to that is that the NCAA is not a normal business.  No, it is not normal.  It is simply made up of institutions, dozens of whom now make $20,000,000 a year in television revenue.  It is made up of institutions who do not balk at asking alums for money to build stadiums.  It is made up of institutions that are willing to pay coaches $1,000,000+ to tell a bunch of young adults what to do on the athletic field.  The NCAA is not “normal business” anymore, it is big business now.  So, NCAA, spare the world your 19th century morals.  You gave those up long ago.

Indeed, the hypocrisy is astounding.  The NCAA does not punish a coach who chooses to take a job at a new institution.  But it DOES impose a transfer penalty on the players that were recruited to play for that very coach at that very school.  So there is freedom of movement for adult coaches, but not the young adult players who foolishly chose to play for a guy that abandons the program.  And that is just the head coach.  What about the assistants that are on the front lines of recruitment and in many cases closer to the players.  Assistant coaches are even more likely to switch universities–voluntarily or involuntarily.  Just ask the coordinators at Houston and Wisconsin that were fired before mid-September.

So… if a 50-year old coach decides to abandon his $1,400,000 a year job at College A to take a $2,200,000 a year job at College B, he can do so without penalty.  If an 19-year old kid second guesses his decision to attend College A, and wants to transfer to College B, he must sit out a year.  Sure, the kid can still transfer.  But he cannot play his sport for one year.  The coach of that same sport need not sit out a year.  The NCAA is holding kids to decisions made on or before reaching adulthood, but allowing adults to have greater freedom of movement.

By the way, the NCAA has only recently decided that multi-year scholarships might be, say, a fair idea.  In the absence of multi-year scholarships, College A has been able to recruit a kid and decide after his first year that his athletic scholarship is revoked.  But the kid cannot revoke his own scholarship and seek one elsewhere.  Again, anything to screw student-athletes.  Fortunately, the vote to allow multi-year scholarships barely passed.  So at least now the kids restrained from transferring have a chance to bind the schools that bind them.

Of course, now the NCAA might want to drop the term “student-athlete.”  The Confidential is not sure what term will be used to describe who the NCAA screws in the future, but the screwing will likely continue unabated.   That’s just what the NCAA does.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Other Sports, Scandal, Uncategorized and tagged , , , ,
19 Sep 2012
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And then there were two… and soon it will be one. Right?

Since the BCS era began, 9 of the 15 national champions have been undefeated.  This, of course, means that 6 national champions have had losses.  However, once a team loses a game, it invites other parties (voters, computers, etc.) to determine whether it can even play for the national championship.  Ask Oklahoma State about how that worked out last year.  For the ACC, this means that there are only two teams left that control their national championship destiny: Florida State (3-0) and Clemson (3-0).  They play this weekend.  By Saturday evening, the ACC will be down to just one remaining undefeated team.  Or will it…

As noted above, 60% of the recent national champions have been undefeated.  All of those teams have come from BCS conferences.  There are currently a whopping 26 teams from BCS conferences that are undefeated, and 27 if you include Notre Dame.  That seems like a lot, even for this time of year.

Of those 27 teams, only two are from the ACC–FSU and Clemson.  And Clemson travels to FSU this weekend for their annual matchup.  That means that the ACC will be down to its final undefeated team by Saturday night.  To paraphrase Princess Leia: “Help us <insert winner of Saturday’s game>, you’re our only hope.”

And that’s what it comes down to for the ACC right now.  Virginia Tech’s mind numbing loss to Pitt removed a contender.  Miami and North Carolina are talented, but suspended and nowhere near ready for a title run.  Did anyone really think Georgia Tech or Virginia would run the table?  Of course not.  And the rest of the teams?  Please.  Most of them are fighting for mere bowl-eligibility at this point.  So, what was once a three-team race is now down to a two-team race, and soon it will be one.

September is barely gone and the ACC will be down to one national contender.

But, as Lee Corso would say… “not so fast my friend.”

What about Notre Dame?  Notre Dame is undefeated.  They still have to play Michigan, Stanford, Oklahoma, and USC.  If they run THAT table, wow.

But Notre Dame did just announce it was joining the ACC at some point.  Unlike its deal with the Big East, Notre Dame is making a substantially greater commitment to the ACC for football.  In the meantime, Notre Dame’s relationship with the Big East has gone from “sleeping on the couch” to “waiting for lawyers to finalize the divorce.”  If Notre Dame were to run the table, the September partnership would mean that the ACC would have a better right than anyone else to claim some credit for a Notre Dame title.  More so than anyone else (other than Notre Dame, itself, obviously).

So… to paraphrase Yoda, “perhaps there is another.”

And, really, the way things have gone for the ACC in football lately, a convoluted claim to a credit for a national championship by a future partial member is better than what has happened lately.  You take what you can get.

Posted by acaffrey in Uncategorized

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