The 2015 Confidential Preseason ACC Football Poll

FOOTBALL IS BACK!   ACC FOOTBALL IS BACK!   It looks to be a promising year for the ACC, as many experienced quarterbacks return and there is significant coaching stability.  While Wake Forest and Virginia may be the long shots to get to bowl eligibility in each division, there is a significant regression to the mean with FSU losing Winston (among others) and everyone else improving.   In any event, with football here, it is time for the Confidential’s preseason football poll–with 5 Confidential correspondents participating.  Remember to join our individual player fantasy league and our survivor leagues… they are FREE, easy to play, and have CA$H prizes to the winners.  In any event, here is the first poll results, with links to the Confidential’s over/under for each school:

  1. Florida State (48 points, 3 first place votes).  The Seminoles have lost of a lot, but most people figure that they will stay on top.  Jimbo Fisher has reloaded, making it fairly likely.
  2. Clemson (45 points, 2 first place votes).  Quarterback is an essential position in football and Clemson has a dynamic one.  With studs at WR and a solid defense (despite some losses), Clemson has a legitimate claim to the division and conference title.
  3. Notre Dame (38 points).  The Fighting Irish are not sufficiently ACC to be eligible to win it, but they will be good.  Whether they are the 3rd best team of the 15 remains to be seen.  That is the preseason position though.
  4. Georgia Tech (36 points).  The Yellow Jackets may be ready to reclaim the Coastal.  Pitt is loaded at skill positions, Virginia Tech is always a threat, Miami is desperate for a return to greatness, and Duke/UNC want to be more than hoops schools.  We will see.
  5. Louisville (29 points).  The Cardinals are flying under the radar, which is probably how Bobby Petrino likes it.  Certainly not going to resign themselves to the perpetual #3 spot in the Atlantic.
  6. Virginia Tech (27 points).  Is this about name recognition or potential?  The Hokies have not been their typically football selves lately.
  7. NC State (14 points).  With such an easy schedule, it will be hard for NC State not to get to bowl eligibility.  Does that make them better than the schools below them in win totals?  Debatable.
  8. Miami (13 points).  If Miami had NC State’s schedule, perhaps the schools would flip-flop.  Then again, Miami finds new ways to disappoint ever year.  Still waiting for that first Coastal division championship…
  9. North Carolina (12 points).  With solid skill players, the real question is whether that defense can improve.  With new coaching blood on that side of the ball, time will tell.
  10. Boston College (5 points).  For the past two years, Boston College has gone toe-to-toe with Florida State, Clemson, and USC (winning too!).  Regardless of talent, good to see them in this final position in the poll.

Others: Pitt (3 points), Duke (3 points).  Syracuse, Virginia, and Wake Forest did not receive votes.

See the team pages for more analysis.  Welcome any criticism too…

ACC Fantasy Football Contest: 2015!

So, you think you know college football? Especially ACC football?  Prove it.

WHO CAN ENTER? 

Anyone.  It costs $0.00, which fits into nearly every budget.  And there are a few prizes.

WHY SHOULD I ENTER?

Hopefully, you are competitive and think you know ACC football.

Did we mention the free part?  We are a blog, not FanDuel.

Beyond that… there is a $40 prize, payable via PayPal to the winner.

Periodically, we will do prize contests for the best week. 

But, hey you ARE competitive, right?

HOW DO I ENTER?

Enter your Week 1 lineup below.   That’s it.  And then each week, let us know if you are making any changes to that roster.   

WHAT ARE THE RULES?

Rule #1: Anyone desiring to enter must submit ONE (and only one) comment announcing the following:

  • One Quarterback from “an ACC school” (i.e. the 14 ACC schools, plus Notre Dame)
  • One Running Back from an ACC school
  • One Wide Receiver from an ACC school
  • One more Running Back, Wide Receiver, or Tight End from an ACC school
  • One defense for an ACC school.
  • One coach for an ACC school

Example of a great entry from last year: Jameis Winston (QB) FSU; Duke Williams (RB) Miami; Jamison Crowder (WR) Duke; Ryan Switzer (WR), UNC; Clemson Defense; and Coach Dave Doeren.  Note the use of first names, positions, and schools.  There are obviously more than one Williams in the ACC.  Also, see Rule #5 regarding diversity in selecting your team.

And then on a weekly basis, just indicate any changes.  If you do not want any changes, you can remain silent.  Your roster from the previous week will still work.

Rule #2: The scoring is as follows for QBs, RBs, WR’s, and TE’s:

  1. 1 point for every 20 yards passing
  2. 1 point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving.
  3. 5 points for a touchdown of any variety (i.e. includes special teams)
  4. For a QB only… 3 bonus points for winning a game in which he attempted at least 90% of the teams passes or personally scored enough points to defeat the opponent (i.e. 3 touchdown passes in a 21-10 win).

Rule #3: The scoring is as follows for a Defense:

  1. Scoring formula = (30 MINUS the number of points the defense allows in regulation)Example, if your team allows 21 points, the defense gets 9 points.  If your team allows 52 points, the defense gets -22 points.  If the score is 30-30 in regulation, but 52-50 in overtime, the defense gets 0 points.
  2. 1 points for a recovered fumble, interception, or sack.
  3. -4 points for allowing 500 yards of offense, 400 yards of passing, and/or 300 yards of rushing.

Rule #4: The scoring is as follows for a Coach:

  1. 5 points for winning a game against an FBS opponent
  2. Bonus points for defeating a ranked team: 20 points for top 5, 15 points for #6-#15, 10 points for #16-#25.  We will use the ESPN poll until the College Football Playoff standings are announced–then that will be the guide 

Rule #5: Bonus points: If your entry uses players/coaches from six different ACC schools, you will receive 5 bonus points that week.

Rule #6:  Transaction demerits.  If you change your lineup from week to week, that is fine.  But there is an ever-increasing penalty for each roster move above one per week.  For each roster change from the week before, you lose that number of points.  So if your Week 2 roster is 6 completely different guys from Week 1, you get a -5.  You can get that back, of course, by having a diverse roster.  See Rule #5.  If you do not make changes, so be it.  Your roster from the week before will apply without any reduction.

Rule #7: The source of the statistics will be the ESPN boxscore, as of the date that it is reviewed by the Confidential for tabulation.  Once the Confidential reviews the ESPN boxscore, the scoring is final–even if ESPN is inaccurate or there is a change to the boxscore.  Defensive statistics will come from a reputable source if not provided by ESPN.

Rule #8: We are a global head-to-head league.  You play EVERYONE every week!  The goal is to get a win–by finishing in the top half of the standings that week.  Example, if there are 20 teams, the 10 highest scores each week get a win, the 10 lowest scores get a loss.  But, if there are 21 teams, the 11th team gets a tie, with the 10 higher scores getting a win and the 10 lower scores getting a loss.  This way, you do not have to beat everyone, you just need to beat half the field each week.

Rule #9:  The team with the best record after the week of November 28th is the winner.  If there are ties, they will be resolved by which team had the most wins.  Next, the team with the better record head-to-head all season.  If there is still a tie, most points on the season.  Beyond that, the prize is just split.  The Confidential does not flip coins or penalty kicks or any other lame tiebreakers.

Rule #10: If someone quits, their score will stop accumulating on a week-to-week basis.  We are not going to have a bunch of quitters taking losses.  Sorry.

To make your entry for Week 1, post it below or in the special Week 1 entry post that will be posted game week.  You can make changes or add your lineup until 1 hour before the first ACC game kicks off.  You can join after Week 1.  Remember to also make lineup changes for each week if you so desire.  Or not.

Recap of the Confidential Football Over-Unders for 2015

Here is a quick recap of the Confidential ACC Football Over-Unders for 2015… in order by over-under win total:

See the team pages for more analysis.  Welcome any criticism too…

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: Clemson

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The final team up: Clemson.  We are going with an over/under of 10.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 5 vs Wofford
  2. September 12 vs Appalachian St
  3. September 17 @ Louisville
  4. October 3 vs Notre Dame
  5. October 10 vs Georgia Tech
  6. October 17 vs Boston College
  7. October 24 @ Miami
  8. October 31 @ NC State
  9. November 7 vs Florida State
  10. November 14 @ Syracuse
  11. November 21 vs Wake Forest
  12. November 28 @ South Carolina

Likely losses: Two of South Carolina, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Louisville

Likely wins: Wofford, Appalachian State, BC, NC State, Wake Forest

Summary:  This is a tough, but decent, schedule for Clemson.   A couple cupcakes to open the season before a trip to Louisville.  Then, a long rest before hosting Notre dame and Georgia Tech.  Trips to Miami and NC State are challenges before the visit from Florida State.  Then games against Syracuse and Wake Forest before heading to South Carolina.  Clemson could run the table, they could lose all four of the “Likely losses,” or somewhere in between.  Ultimately, the Confidential goes with an over-under of 10.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State Duke Boston College UNC

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: Syracuse

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The next team up: Syracuse (see recent discussion of Syracuse).  We are going with an over/under of 5.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 4 vs Rhode Island
  2. September 12 vs Wake Forest
  3. September 19 vs Central Michigan
  4. September 26 vs Louisiana State
  5. October 10 @ South Florida
  6. October 17 @ Virginia
  7. October 24 vs Pittsburgh
  8. October 31 @ Florida State
  9. November 7 @ Louisville
  10. November 14 vs Clemson
  11. November 21 @ NC State
  12. November 28 vs Boston College

Likely losses: LSU, Florida State, Louisville, Clemson

Likely wins: Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Central Michigan

Summary:  Syracuse finally scheduled somewhat appropriately–with only one P5 school, LSU.  Still, LSU is a tough opponent for a school like Syracuse, which rarely fares well against 10-win teams.  But there is a legitimate chance for Syracuse to start 3-0, and perhaps even get to 6-1 before the Florida State game.  They might have to if they want to be bowl-eligible because you have to think that the three game stretch of FSU, Louisville, and Clemson is going to be a three-loss stretch.  We think Syracuse improves a notch over last–but bowl eligibility may require Syracuse to go 3-1 OOC and then beat 3 of Virginia, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest, and BC?  It is easy to say yes in August.  Let’s see if the ‘Cuse can actually do it.  Ultimately, the Confidential deems it a toss up and goes with an over-under of 5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State Duke Boston College UNC

Syracuse Football Reality

Eschewing the requisite third-person writing format for a moment, I am a diehard fan of Syracuse University.  I went to football games at Archbold Stadium, including the last one ever played there.  I went to a game during the year in between that stadium and the Dome.  I was a student attending the game in 1987 where an undefeated Syracuse team utterly destroyed hated Penn State.  I have been to road games and bowl games.  I bleed orange.  But, with a rumor that Syracuse is planning to schedule Wisconsin, I can only shake my head at the institutional delusion inside the athletic department (shared by some fans).

Continue reading

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: North Carolina

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The next team up: North Carolina.  We are going with an over/under of 7.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 3 vs South Carolina (Charlotte, NC)
  2. September 12 vs North Carolina A&T
  3. September 19 vs Illinois
  4. September 26 vs Delaware
  5. October 3 @ Georgia Tech
  6. October 17 vs Wake Forest
  7. October 24 vs Virginia
  8. October 29 @ Pittsburgh
  9. November 7 vs Duke
  10. November 14 vs Miami
  11. November 21 @ Virginia Tech
  12. November 28 @ NC State

Likely losses: South Carolina, @Georgia Tech

Likely wins: NC A&T, Delaware, Wake Forest, Illinois or NC State

Summary:  Like Boston College, North Carolina has two games against FCS opponents–North Carolina A&T and Delaware.  In addition, UNC also plays all but one of its first seven games in the state of North Carolina and 9 overall in the state.  Make no mistake, South Carolina will be tough, and Illinois is no pushover despite its recent futility.  Still, with a Coastal slate and Atlantic games against Wake Forest and NC State, North Carolina has a path to the ACC Championship Game.  That being said, the Confidential does not expect same.  Ultimately, the Confidential goes with an over-under of 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State Duke Boston College