ACC Basketball: A Decade in Review and Prediction for the New ACC

Posted on May 18, 2013 by wtnoleacc

The ACC records for the last decade of football was posted by acaffrey earlier this week so I thought it would be fun to see the numbers for the basketball side of the conference. I believe the biggest surprise over the last decade of ACC basketball has been the emergence of Florida State as the third winningest program in the conference behind Duke and North Carolina, a period that includes an ACC tournament championship for the Noles.

1. Duke 123-39 76%: Arguable one of the most successful decades in conference history. Duke has won at least 10 conference games in 9 of the last 10 years. During the last decade Duke has won one NCAA title, 3 ACC Regular Season titles, and 6 ACC Tournament titles.

2. North Carolina 117-45 72%: The baby blue (UNC) and navy blue (Duke) have dominated the conference in hoops. Although Duke has a better conference record, North Carolina won 2 NCAA titles during the Roy Williams era (which started in 2003-04). The Heels have also won 6 ACC Regular Season titles and 2 ACC Tournament titles during that time.

3. Florida State 85-77 52%: How in the world did the biggest name in ACC college football climb so high in the basketball centric ACC? Leonard Hamilton. Hamilton’s teams consistently play above their talent level through hard work and relentless defense. However, FSU could be hit the hardest from the most recent conference expansion as the competition for 3rd place in the conference gets considerably tougher.

4. Maryland 81-81 50%

5. Miami 67-79 46%: Another “football” school in the top half of the conference. Jim Larranaga and the Hurricanes had a “once in a decade” season last year. Can history repeat itself moving forward?

5. Boston College 60-70 46%: BC started conference play by winning 21 of their first 31 games, but have fallen on hard times winning only 11 contests in the last two years.

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Syracuse’s Michael Carter-Williams Stock Falling

Posted on May 17, 2013 by acaffrey

Few questioned the decision by Syracuse’s Michael Carter-Williams to forego his last two years of college basketball and enter the NBA draft. After all, NBA draftniks had been drooling and fawning over MCW for the entire season. The phrase “certain lottery pick” is enough to convince the Confidential that any player should turn pro. But this one is getting ugly.

The good news for MCW is that Chad Ford has stated to Syracuse.com that scouts either “love” or “hate” MCW. So some scouts still love him. But others hate him? That seems harsh… presumably they just dislike his game. But that is bad news.

Even worse is this quote from Ford:

“I know his agent thinks that I’m insane to have him, I think right now, I have him projected outside the lottery,” Ford said. “I think Dallas is a very good possibility for him at 13 and Sacramento is a good possibility for him if Anthony Bennett is off the board. Other than that, I just haven’t identified the other teams where I think he is a fit and they’re high on him.”

The good news for MCW is that he is still likely to be a first-round pick and get guaranteed money. If so, the decision to go pro was unquestionably a sound move. If the flaws in his game were not corrected next year, that extra year of college would be wasted.

But it is still a shame to see someone leave school when the “potential” outweighs the “actual.” If only the NBA and college basketball could work together to allow kids a chance to continue to develop their game in college, without making that a risky proposition from a business sense.

ACC Football: Decade in Review

Posted on May 15, 2013 by acaffrey

Most sports fans are willing to make fun of a school based on its perceived on-field or on-court performance. Sometimes it is accurate; other times it is not. So, what we set out to do was look at the records of ACC schools in football over the past decade. Who do YOU think had the best record in conference games between 2003 and 2012? Worst? Courtesy of stassen.com, we were able to easily make the calculations.

Virginia Tech had the best record in ACC conference games this past decade, going 64-20.
Florida State was #2, albeit significantly behind the Hokies in win total, going 54-29.
Clemson narrowly edged Georgia Tech for the #3 spot, with a 51-31 record.
Georgia Tech misses out because of that ACC-CG appearance last year to finish #4 at 51-32.
Miami comes in at #5 with a 44-35 overall record.
Boston College has to be a surprise at #6, making it 3 out of the top 6 as former Big East schools, with a 41-38 record.
North Carolina & Virginia tie at 35-45.
see above.
Wake Forest went 35-46.
North Carolina State went 34-46.
Maryland went 33-47.
Duke was 12-68.

So, Big 10 fans, you are getting a Maryland team that was 11th in conference wins the past decade. While Maryland has had financial troubles, they were operating under the same system as the rest of its ACC peers. So, good luck with that.

What do you think the rankings would be for hoops? Would it be Duke, North Carolina, or someone else at the top? Who would be at the bottom?

Seminole Territory: ACC Meetings and Andrew Wiggins

Posted on May 14, 2013 by wtnoleacc

The ACC ‘s annual meetings began in earnest yesterday and there are several topics of interest for Florida State fans:

1. Bowl tie-ins for football: We should learn the bowl lineup for the post BCS era this week. Here’s hoping the addition of Notre Dame results in an appealing slate. After the first day of meetings ESPN’s Brett Murphy has mentioned the potential for the Russell Athletic Bowl to host the #2 ACC team. Most FSU fans would be disappointed with this result.

2. ACC Network: Can the ACC really generate enough interest at ESPN to support another college oriented network? If the answer is yes, then how much money will it bring to the conference? FSU fans are anxious to fill the conference money gap as soon as possible.

3. Basketball Tournament Sites: Will the ACC consider a geographic rotation of sites for the ACC basketball tournament to better represent the geographic foot print of the conference? Can the new ACC programs influence the other non Carolina schools to become less Carolina centric? The selection of future sites for the ACC tournament could shed some light on the future direction of the conference.

Ranking the ACC-B1G Challenge Games

Posted on May 10, 2013 by acaffrey

The ACC-B1G Challenge games were announced a few days ago. After looking to see who your school played, the next thought was probably to check out whether any other games were intriguing. And there are several. So let’s just go ahead and rank them for interest.

Gold Medal Games:

1. North Carolina @ Michigan State. Tom Izzo v Roy Williams. That’s a lot of Final Four appearances. MSU always reloads, and North Carolina never stays quiet for long. This one should be a battle in Breslin.

2. Michigan @ Duke. Both teams had good seasons in 2012-2013, with Michigan exceeding expectations by making a run to the title game. Both have a lot of production to replace. Will be a great game though.

3. Indiana @ Syracuse. A rematch of a March Madness game that went for the Orange. A lot of new faces in 2013-2014, but a lot of star power will be back and new to both campuses.

4. Wisconsin @ Virginia. The first one to 40 wins? Don’t expect a lot of points in this one. But this is still a darn good matchup.

Silver Medal Games:

5. Notre Dame @ Iowa. Any time ANY Fighting Irish team comes to town, it is a big deal. A nice regional battle too.

6. Penn State @ Pittsburgh. A battle for Pennsylvania. This one should be close too–Penn State has experience coming back.

7. Miami @ Nebraska. The Hurricanes invested in their program by hiring a dynamic coach. Nebraska is investing in its facilities. A better game on the gridiron, but one to keep an eye on anyway.

8. Florida State @ Minnesota. Both teams fell short of expectations last year. A lot of new faces.

Bronze Medal Games:

9. Northwestern @ North Carolina State. This game might be underrated at #9. But until the Wildcats make a Big Dance, it is hard to take them seriously on the hardcourt.

10. Illinois @ Georgia Tech. Still waiting for that Georgia Tech team to turn the corner. Illinois fans may feel the same way.

11. Boston College @ Purdue. Not exactly the old Patriots-Colts battles featuring Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. It is what it is.

12. Maryland @ Ohio State. Big 10 fans will be rooting for Ohio State. ACC fans will be rooting for Ohio State. Not much of a “challenge.”

Participation Ribbons:

Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest are left out of the challenge. We’ll give them participation ribbons even though they are not, obviously, participating.

ACC-Big 10 Challenge Schedule

Posted on May 8, 2013 by mikemab2000

Listening to ESPN Radio on the way home from work and heard that the schedule for next season’s ACC-Big 10 Challenge had been released.

Here’s the lineup:

Tuesday, December 3

Florida State at Minnesota

Illinois at Georgia Tech

Indiana at Syracuse

Michigan at Duke

Notre Dame at Iowa

Penn State at Pittsburgh

Wednesday, December 4

Boston College at Purdue

Maryland at Ohio State

Miami, FL at Nebraska

North Carolina at Michigan State

Northwestern at North Carolina State

Wisconsin at Virginia

Admittedly NC State does not have the most attractive draw. This is only right after the debacle of 2012/13; however I do believe the coming year will see a less star-laden but more focused Pack. Meaning, of course, this game is winnable, especially at Raleigh.

However there are some great matchups here. Duke/Michigan and UNC/Michigan State, of course, but also the Battle of Pennsylvania, Pitt/Penn State; Syracuse/Indiana looks huge; and the first Challenge appearance of the Irish, Notre Dame/Iowa.

There is even a game in which I might end up rooting for the B1G team; er, go Buckeyes?

B1G TV Revenue, Popsicles, and Trophies

Posted on May 7, 2013 by acaffrey

Big 10 fans were scrambling around yesterday applauding the announcement that the conference would be distributing $25.7 this year. It is unclear why the St. Louis Dispatch was issuing the report. After all, the Big 10 did not want Missouri. But it is what it is.

However, before Big 10 fans start looking for a popsicle to suck, it should be noted that the TV revenue contribution to each school decreased. ESPN reported this regarding the Big 10 distributions:

The league’s fiscal year doesn’t end until June 30, but according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Stu Durando, conference payouts to member schools should reach another record high this year. Figures provided by Illinois show that Big Ten distributions are expected to be $25.7 million per school, including $7.6 million from the Big Ten Network.

Last year, schools got $24.6 million from the league, including $8.1 million from BTN. In 2011, the number was $22.6 million per school and $7.9 million from BTN. The Big Ten continues to distribute more revenue to its member schools than any other conference, which explains why Maryland was eager to dump decades of tradition in the ACC to jump on board.

People scoffed at the Big Ten Network when it first began, but Durando writes that the venture will have resulted in $42.5 million per full league member over the past six years. The figure has decreased this year for the first time, but that’s likely due to an increased slice of the pie given to Nebraska, which does not receive a full share of league revenue until 2017.

So there you go. Stu Durando calls it a “record” distribution, even though the to-school distribution is expected to be lower than either 2012 or 2011. Oh wait, there is an excuse. The lower distribution is because Nebraska is being given a larger slice of the pie. And Nebraska will not even get a full share until 2017! So apparently Nebraska’s mere increase in share caused a decrease in payouts per school.

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Notes from Recent Preseason Polls

Posted on May 1, 2013 by wtnoleacc

On Monday, I noticed two offseason polls of interest: the first one was a post Spring football poll for 2013 by ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and the second poll was for college basketball on CBS Sportsline.

Here’s a quick breakdown of each:

Football Top 25

ACC (3) 4. Louisville, 12. Clemson, 14. Florida State

Big 10 (5)

Big 12 (5)

SEC (6)

Pac 12 (4)

Notre Dame was ranked #10.

I’m excited about the GOR signed last week, but I’m embarrassed by the lack of solid football programs in the conference. The potential is there-I’m speaking about Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, NC State-for the ACC to consistently have at least five teams in the Top 25.

Basketball Top 26

On the other hand, the new ACC received a ton of respect in the Sportline Poll. Four ACC teams were ranked in the Top 11 and seven were ranked overall.

ACC (7) Louisville, Duke, UNC, Syracuse in Top 11

BIG 10 (5)

BIG 12 (1)

Pac 12 (2)

SEC (3)

Florida State and Louisville were the only ACC schools to appear in both (football and basketball) polls. FSU will certainly move up in basketball if Andrew Wiggins picks the Seminoles in the next two weeks.

Strength in Basketball Helpful for ACC Network?

Most media pundits have pointed to the direct correlation between football performance and television money. However, few mention the fact that conference network money is driven by “quality” inventory beyond football. I believe the number of solid basketball programs with diehard fan bases will make the ACC Network viable for ESPN and profitable for all of the teams that recently made a commitment to the conference. How many people are going to be watching the SEC network? (FYI: I will not watch.) All of the notable football games are covered by the national networks. Are people going to watch Alabama vs. Vanderbilt in basketball? Meanwhile, the Big 10 has a similar advantage to the ACC with several viable non-football programs to provide year round inventory and interest.

2014 College Basketball: Overview of the Previews

Posted on April 21, 2013 by acaffrey

It’s apparently NEVER too early to talk college basketball. All of the pundits have their early–very early–predictions for 2013-2014 started up. Even though it is not even clear who is staying and who is leaving (players have until April 28, 2013, to declare for the NBA), these projections are being made. So we must analyze.

First, the Confidential is a huge fan of Jay Bilas. Most of his opinions are fair and make a lot of sense. Not all of them. But most of them. Here is the early Bilas index for 2013-2014, truncated to 25, rather than 68:

Kentucky
Louisville
Duke
Michigan State

Hmmm… four of the best college basketball coaches. Not exactly reaching here.

Any other ACC schools in the mix? Yep: #6 is North Carolina, #11 is Syracuse, #13 is Notre Dame, and #23 is Virginia. Pittsburgh, Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina State did not make the list….but would likely be in his top 68, had he done one.

Second, if the start of the 2013-2014 is far away, how about the 2014 selection Sunday? But that did not stop Bracketologist Joe Lunardi from taking an early look at the field. He has Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, and Arizona as the four #1 seeds. For the ACC schools:

Duke is a #1 seed
Syracuse and Louisville are seeded at #2
North Carolina is a #3 seed
Virginia is a #4 seed
Notre Dame is a #6 seed

That, all in all, is not TOO different from the Bilas index. And, although Lunardi goes out to 68 teams, no other ACC team cracks a top 68 where 30 teams are given automatic bids. Joe also needs to update things to reflect that Notre Dame, Pitt, and Syracuse are part of the ACC. But we’ll cut him some slack since the change is not implemented yet.

Third, the Big Lead has a top 25. The top 4 teams are–surprise–Kentucky, Duke, Michigan State, and Ohio State. North Carolina, Syracuse, Virginia, and Notre Dame–and no others (except Louisville, obviously)–crack the top 25.

So there you have it. There is a consensus that Kentucky, Duke, and Michigan State are the top 3 teams heading into 2013-2014. For the ACC, five teams (plus Louisville) will be ranked. Hard to disagree with any of those projections.

Can you?

NBA Draft & The ACC

Posted on April 18, 2013 by acaffrey

The April 16, 2013, deadline has come and gone, meaning that anyone who decides to go pro between now and April 28, 2013, will make that decision as a point-of-no-return. That will not stop folks from doing so, but the consequences will be a bit sharper. At this point, those eligible for the NBA draft are what they are. There are a number of ACC players that will be among the players drafted. Who are they?

First of all, who are the early entries from ACC schools so far? CBS Sportsline has a nice list going. Here are the players from the ACC schools on the list:

Steven Adams, Pitt
Lorenzo Brown, NC State
Reggie Bullock, North Carolina
Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse
Gorgui Dieng, Louisville
Alex Len, Maryland
CJ Leslie, NC State

Second, where will these kids go? Well, here is where Chad Ford slots these guys, and other ACC draft-eligibles, in terms of overall NBA talent:

Len, #8
Carter-Williams, #10
Dieng, #17
Mason Plumlee, Duke, #18
Adams, #26
Brown, #42
Bullock, #45
Russ Smith, Louisville, #53
Leslie, #61
James Southerland, Syracuse, #81
Richard Howell, NC State, #82
Ryan Kelly, Duke, #88
Michael Snaer, Florida State, #92

A few other players to note. These guys are all still undecided: Shane Larkin of Miami is at #30; Rasheed Sulaimon of Duke is at #48; and CJ Fair of Syracuse is at 71. The decision should be tough for Larkin, but fairly easy for Fair. You want to be pretty certain you get a first round contract if you are going to leave.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFIDENTIAL

Covering the ACC (with Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame and Louisville)

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