ACC Basketball: A Decade in Review and Prediction for the New ACC

Posted on May 18, 2013 by wtnoleacc

The ACC records for the last decade of football was posted by acaffrey earlier this week so I thought it would be fun to see the numbers for the basketball side of the conference. I believe the biggest surprise over the last decade of ACC basketball has been the emergence of Florida State as the third winningest program in the conference behind Duke and North Carolina, a period that includes an ACC tournament championship for the Noles.

1. Duke 123-39 76%: Arguable one of the most successful decades in conference history. Duke has won at least 10 conference games in 9 of the last 10 years. During the last decade Duke has won one NCAA title, 3 ACC Regular Season titles, and 6 ACC Tournament titles.

2. North Carolina 117-45 72%: The baby blue (UNC) and navy blue (Duke) have dominated the conference in hoops. Although Duke has a better conference record, North Carolina won 2 NCAA titles during the Roy Williams era (which started in 2003-04). The Heels have also won 6 ACC Regular Season titles and 2 ACC Tournament titles during that time.

3. Florida State 85-77 52%: How in the world did the biggest name in ACC college football climb so high in the basketball centric ACC? Leonard Hamilton. Hamilton’s teams consistently play above their talent level through hard work and relentless defense. However, FSU could be hit the hardest from the most recent conference expansion as the competition for 3rd place in the conference gets considerably tougher.

4. Maryland 81-81 50%

5. Miami 67-79 46%: Another “football” school in the top half of the conference. Jim Larranaga and the Hurricanes had a “once in a decade” season last year. Can history repeat itself moving forward?

5. Boston College 60-70 46%: BC started conference play by winning 21 of their first 31 games, but have fallen on hard times winning only 11 contests in the last two years.

Continue reading →

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ESPN’s Most-Talented Football Teams for 2013

Posted on May 16, 2013 by acaffrey

The other day, the Confidential ran through the most successful ACC football teams for the past decade. Today, ESPN’s Travis Haney has a list of the 10 most talented football teams for 2013. Three of the top 10 teams in talent are in our very own ACC. Moreover, Clemson is in the next five.

The top 10 is, itself, a whos-who of college football elite. Obviously, one can find Alabama, Texas, and Ohio State on the list. But where does the ACC stack up?

Well, Florida State is #4 on the list. Here is some of the blurb on the Seminoles from the article:

Schlabach’s ranking: 14
Kiper’s top 50 prospects: 3
Kiper’s positional prospects: 14
Four-year recruiting class average rank: 4.5

Considering the above numbers/rankings, there is no reason for Florida State to lose games the way it did to NC State in 2012 or Virginia in 2011. Injuries and inexperience played a part in those losses and others, but the Seminoles are better on paper than any team in the ACC. At least FSU managed a BCS berth — and win — last season, but it should have been a bigger year.

Pretty fair, actually. FSU has to stop losing to inferior opponents.

In a bit of a surprise, Miami is #8. Here is some of Haney’s explanation:

Schlabach’s ranking: NR
Kiper’s top 50 prospects: 0
Kiper’s positional prospects: 11
Four-year recruiting class average rank: 16.5

Am I reaching here? Maybe, but there isn’t a whole lot to differentiate among programs such as Miami, Michigan, Clemson or the ones listed below. I just find the Hurricanes interesting because of how many players return, including the entire offense. They’re kind of easy to forget about, because of the self-imposed bowl ban, but they did win five of their seven games in the ACC — and no team has a hold on the league, not even the Seminoles.

And Notre Dame finished #10. Haney listed Clemson at #12, meaning 25% of the top 12 is in the ACC, while 33% of the top 12 is ACC or ACC-affiliated. Niot bad!

Here is the full list:

Alabama
Texas
LSU
Florida State
Georgia
Oregon
Ohio State
Miami
Stanford
Notre Dame
Michigan
Clemson
Florida
Auburn
Texas A&M

So… that’s 6 SEC schools, 3/4 ACC schools, 2 SEC schools, 2 Pac-12 schools, and 1 Big XII school.

An argument could be made for Nebraska, Wisconsin, USC, Virginia Tech, and Louisville to be on this list. But, alas, such is not the case.

What do you think… is ESPN stretching for the ACC now that they have a long-term partnership or is this a legit ranking?

ACC Football: Decade in Review

Posted on May 15, 2013 by acaffrey

Most sports fans are willing to make fun of a school based on its perceived on-field or on-court performance. Sometimes it is accurate; other times it is not. So, what we set out to do was look at the records of ACC schools in football over the past decade. Who do YOU think had the best record in conference games between 2003 and 2012? Worst? Courtesy of stassen.com, we were able to easily make the calculations.

Virginia Tech had the best record in ACC conference games this past decade, going 64-20.
Florida State was #2, albeit significantly behind the Hokies in win total, going 54-29.
Clemson narrowly edged Georgia Tech for the #3 spot, with a 51-31 record.
Georgia Tech misses out because of that ACC-CG appearance last year to finish #4 at 51-32.
Miami comes in at #5 with a 44-35 overall record.
Boston College has to be a surprise at #6, making it 3 out of the top 6 as former Big East schools, with a 41-38 record.
North Carolina & Virginia tie at 35-45.
see above.
Wake Forest went 35-46.
North Carolina State went 34-46.
Maryland went 33-47.
Duke was 12-68.

So, Big 10 fans, you are getting a Maryland team that was 11th in conference wins the past decade. While Maryland has had financial troubles, they were operating under the same system as the rest of its ACC peers. So, good luck with that.

What do you think the rankings would be for hoops? Would it be Duke, North Carolina, or someone else at the top? Who would be at the bottom?

Seminole Territory: ACC Meetings and Andrew Wiggins

Posted on May 14, 2013 by wtnoleacc

The ACC ‘s annual meetings began in earnest yesterday and there are several topics of interest for Florida State fans:

1. Bowl tie-ins for football: We should learn the bowl lineup for the post BCS era this week. Here’s hoping the addition of Notre Dame results in an appealing slate. After the first day of meetings ESPN’s Brett Murphy has mentioned the potential for the Russell Athletic Bowl to host the #2 ACC team. Most FSU fans would be disappointed with this result.

2. ACC Network: Can the ACC really generate enough interest at ESPN to support another college oriented network? If the answer is yes, then how much money will it bring to the conference? FSU fans are anxious to fill the conference money gap as soon as possible.

3. Basketball Tournament Sites: Will the ACC consider a geographic rotation of sites for the ACC basketball tournament to better represent the geographic foot print of the conference? Can the new ACC programs influence the other non Carolina schools to become less Carolina centric? The selection of future sites for the ACC tournament could shed some light on the future direction of the conference.

Ranking the ACC-B1G Challenge Games

Posted on May 10, 2013 by acaffrey

The ACC-B1G Challenge games were announced a few days ago. After looking to see who your school played, the next thought was probably to check out whether any other games were intriguing. And there are several. So let’s just go ahead and rank them for interest.

Gold Medal Games:

1. North Carolina @ Michigan State. Tom Izzo v Roy Williams. That’s a lot of Final Four appearances. MSU always reloads, and North Carolina never stays quiet for long. This one should be a battle in Breslin.

2. Michigan @ Duke. Both teams had good seasons in 2012-2013, with Michigan exceeding expectations by making a run to the title game. Both have a lot of production to replace. Will be a great game though.

3. Indiana @ Syracuse. A rematch of a March Madness game that went for the Orange. A lot of new faces in 2013-2014, but a lot of star power will be back and new to both campuses.

4. Wisconsin @ Virginia. The first one to 40 wins? Don’t expect a lot of points in this one. But this is still a darn good matchup.

Silver Medal Games:

5. Notre Dame @ Iowa. Any time ANY Fighting Irish team comes to town, it is a big deal. A nice regional battle too.

6. Penn State @ Pittsburgh. A battle for Pennsylvania. This one should be close too–Penn State has experience coming back.

7. Miami @ Nebraska. The Hurricanes invested in their program by hiring a dynamic coach. Nebraska is investing in its facilities. A better game on the gridiron, but one to keep an eye on anyway.

8. Florida State @ Minnesota. Both teams fell short of expectations last year. A lot of new faces.

Bronze Medal Games:

9. Northwestern @ North Carolina State. This game might be underrated at #9. But until the Wildcats make a Big Dance, it is hard to take them seriously on the hardcourt.

10. Illinois @ Georgia Tech. Still waiting for that Georgia Tech team to turn the corner. Illinois fans may feel the same way.

11. Boston College @ Purdue. Not exactly the old Patriots-Colts battles featuring Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. It is what it is.

12. Maryland @ Ohio State. Big 10 fans will be rooting for Ohio State. ACC fans will be rooting for Ohio State. Not much of a “challenge.”

Participation Ribbons:

Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Wake Forest are left out of the challenge. We’ll give them participation ribbons even though they are not, obviously, participating.

ACC-Big 10 Challenge Schedule

Posted on May 8, 2013 by mikemab2000

Listening to ESPN Radio on the way home from work and heard that the schedule for next season’s ACC-Big 10 Challenge had been released.

Here’s the lineup:

Tuesday, December 3

Florida State at Minnesota

Illinois at Georgia Tech

Indiana at Syracuse

Michigan at Duke

Notre Dame at Iowa

Penn State at Pittsburgh

Wednesday, December 4

Boston College at Purdue

Maryland at Ohio State

Miami, FL at Nebraska

North Carolina at Michigan State

Northwestern at North Carolina State

Wisconsin at Virginia

Admittedly NC State does not have the most attractive draw. This is only right after the debacle of 2012/13; however I do believe the coming year will see a less star-laden but more focused Pack. Meaning, of course, this game is winnable, especially at Raleigh.

However there are some great matchups here. Duke/Michigan and UNC/Michigan State, of course, but also the Battle of Pennsylvania, Pitt/Penn State; Syracuse/Indiana looks huge; and the first Challenge appearance of the Irish, Notre Dame/Iowa.

There is even a game in which I might end up rooting for the B1G team; er, go Buckeyes?

Weekend Topic: ACC Football Divisions

Posted on May 4, 2013 by acaffrey

The folks over at Tomahawk Nation have a nice debate, albeit FSU-centric, as to how the ACC divisions should be reconfigured. So let’s delve in and discuss.

Given that the current divisions are just a random collection of whatever that nobody could possibly remember, here are they are as of right now:

Atlantic: Florida State, Clemson, NC State, Wake Forest, Maryland (Louisville in 2014), Boston College, Syracuse

Coastal: Miami, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Duke, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh

The Confidential has previously advocated for a quasi-geographic breakdown of the teams. John Cassillo over at atlanticcoastconvos proposed the same thing on the Tomahawk Nation blog (midway down):

Atlantic: Miami, Virginia Tech, Virginia, Syracuse, Boston College, Pitt, Maryland (Louisville)

Coastal: Florida State, Clemson, North Carolina, Duke, Wake Forest, North Carolina State, Georgia Tech

The teams are listed above/below a permanent crossover.

This is essentially the “Old ACC less Virginia.” Or N/S, plus Miami and Louisville. Miami works with the North. Virginia? Maybe, maybe not. But they would play UNC every year.

But the FSU folks have an interesting suggestion or two, including a straight–let’s get a strong strength of schedule method proposed by SirChancelot:

Atlantic: Florida State, Virginia Tech, Clemson, Miami, Louisville, Pitt, Virginia

Coastal: Duke, UNC, NC State, Wake Forest, BC, Syracuse, and Georgia Tech

The logic being that the football schools can beat up on each other and establish a strength of schedule that matches up with the SEC. And if the ACC-Championship Game is garbage, so what? It always is anyway. Better to have the 11-1 team get to 12-1 without hassle. Frankly, the Confidential sees some logic in it, but questions the choice of schools. How about this instead:

Atlantic: FSU, Miami, Va Tech, Clemson, Georgia Tech, NC State, Louisville

Coastal, UNC, Duke, Wake Forest, BC, Syracuse, Pitt, Virginia

If anyone runs the table in the Atlantic, they should be sitting pretty from a strength-of-schedule standpoint.

Of course, if anyone runs the table in the ACC in any format, will they be excluded from a strength-of-schedule standpoint anyway? That seems to be a fabricated issue. It is not strength of schedule that harms the ACC schools, it is losing to teams that one should not lose to.

Moreover, playing all those games may help the strength of schedule, but wouldn’t it increase the chances of a bunch of 4-3 teams.

The Confidential’s perspective is that the ACC has a poor image because it is not top-heavy enough. The B1G is Michigan and Ohio State usually. The Big XII is Texas and Oklahoma usually. The Pac-12 is USC or Oregon usually. Exceptions happen obviously, but that is what we can expect. The SEC is great because there are 5 teams that have the ability to run the table–and one or two of them usually do. The ACC may have a couple of schools that “can,” but they always falter along the way to middling schools. Bunching up the great teams is not going to help. However, the idea of ignoring competitive balance has merit. One can never get it straight anyway.

Otherwise, the suggestions over there involve a re-assortment of the current system. Swap Miami for Florida State, or Clemson for Georgia Tech.

Nobody suggested this one… organize by number of words it takes to state the school:

Atlantic (1 word): Clemson, Miami, Pitt, Louisville, Virginia, Duke, Syracuse

Coastal (2 words): Georgia Tech, Florida State, NC State, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Boston College, Wake Forest

Actually, that is not bad competitive balance for football. Hmmmm.

From the Confidential’s perspective, the priority of the conference should be as follows:

Maximizing TV revenue–gotta keep up with the Joneses
Maintaining traditional rivalries
Easy of remembering divisions –nobody should have to look up who is in each division, whether an ACC fan or not
Maximizing gate revenue–more $$$
Competitive balance
Ensuring high strength of schedule
Other?

What do you think–what is THE most important thing that the ACC must consider if/when rearranging the divisions for football? What is your proposal?

ACC & 2014 NFL Draft

Posted on May 2, 2013 by acaffrey

After a great 2013 NFL Draft weekend, it is time to start looking ahead to the 2014 NFL Draft. At least that is the case if you are a draftnik like ESPN’s Todd McShay! He already has a ranking of the top 32 NFL Draft prospects for 2014.

There are a handful of guys with ACC ties on this preliminary list. Obviously, much will change in the next 12 months. But here are the guys with ACC ties getting love from McShay:

#2 Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
#7 Louis Nix III NT Notre Dame
#8 Tajh Boyd QB Clemson
#14 Timmy Jernigan DT Florida State
#18 Stephon Tuitt DT Notre Dame
#20 Jeremiah Attauchu WR Georgia Tech
#21 Sammy Watkins WR Clemson

So that is 4 guys playing in the ACC and 7 guys with ACC ties. Not sure what anyone else thinks, but the ACC is claiming Notre Dame effective immediately. So we will call it 6.

As always, the SEC is the dominant conference, with 14 guys on the list. The Big 2/Little 12….err… B1G has 3–exclusively represented by Michigan and Ohio State. The Big XII has two. The Pac-12 actually finishes ahead of the Big XII and B1G with 5 guys on the list.

What do you think? Who is McShay leaving out from the ACC?

Notes from Recent Preseason Polls

Posted on May 1, 2013 by wtnoleacc

On Monday, I noticed two offseason polls of interest: the first one was a post Spring football poll for 2013 by ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and the second poll was for college basketball on CBS Sportsline.

Here’s a quick breakdown of each:

Football Top 25

ACC (3) 4. Louisville, 12. Clemson, 14. Florida State

Big 10 (5)

Big 12 (5)

SEC (6)

Pac 12 (4)

Notre Dame was ranked #10.

I’m excited about the GOR signed last week, but I’m embarrassed by the lack of solid football programs in the conference. The potential is there-I’m speaking about Miami, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, NC State-for the ACC to consistently have at least five teams in the Top 25.

Basketball Top 26

On the other hand, the new ACC received a ton of respect in the Sportline Poll. Four ACC teams were ranked in the Top 11 and seven were ranked overall.

ACC (7) Louisville, Duke, UNC, Syracuse in Top 11

BIG 10 (5)

BIG 12 (1)

Pac 12 (2)

SEC (3)

Florida State and Louisville were the only ACC schools to appear in both (football and basketball) polls. FSU will certainly move up in basketball if Andrew Wiggins picks the Seminoles in the next two weeks.

Strength in Basketball Helpful for ACC Network?

Most media pundits have pointed to the direct correlation between football performance and television money. However, few mention the fact that conference network money is driven by “quality” inventory beyond football. I believe the number of solid basketball programs with diehard fan bases will make the ACC Network viable for ESPN and profitable for all of the teams that recently made a commitment to the conference. How many people are going to be watching the SEC network? (FYI: I will not watch.) All of the notable football games are covered by the national networks. Are people going to watch Alabama vs. Vanderbilt in basketball? Meanwhile, the Big 10 has a similar advantage to the ACC with several viable non-football programs to provide year round inventory and interest.

FSU Sets School Record – Tops for NFL Draft

Posted on April 28, 2013 by wtnoleacc

This is my first post for ACC Confidential as the new contributor for the Seminoles of Florida State. I grew up in the middle of Big 10 country (Indiana), but fell in love with all things FSU during my first game at the Doak. Im looking forward to a turn around in ACC football and total domination during the basketball season.

Let’s begin…

Florida State had 11 former players drafted in this week’s NFL draft setting an all-time school record and leading all teams. 2012 Champion Alabama had 9 players drafted. The Noles got off to a fast start with three players drafted in the first round on Thursday evening and another two in the early portion of the second round accounting for 5 of the first 42 picks.

Seminoles drafted in the Top 42 picks:
EJ Manual QB 16th (Bills)
Bjoern Werner DE 24th (Colts)
Xavier Rhodes CB 25th (Vikings)
Tank Carradine DE 40th (49ers)
Menelik Wilson OT 42nd (Raiders)

Obviously the cupboard was filled with talent for the Noles last year.

Jimbo and Quarterback U?

With the selection of EJ Manual in the first round of the draft, Jimbo Fisher has solidified his reputation for developing quarterback talent. Fisher has now coached three recent quarterbacks that were drafted in the first round. In addition to Manual, Christian Ponder (2011) and JaMarcus Russell (2007)-from Fisher’s days in LSU-were drafted in the first round.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFIDENTIAL

Covering the ACC (with Syracuse, Pitt, Notre Dame and Louisville)

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