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22 Mar 2013

State of the Pack: Tournament Postmortem

One and done.  The saddest words in NCAA Basketball fandom.

This year, they apply to the Wolfpack.  Yes, I am going to once more whine about What Went Wrong, but first the all-important Disclaimer:

No disrespect intended to the Temple Owls.  They are a very good team and played an excellent game.  Hey, they were a Nine seed; can we really be surprised that they upset an Eight?  Not me, folks; I had them to win this one in my bracket.  It’s one of the few things that are going right there, and the one thing I wanted to be wrong about.

As usual, the Pack came out with an air of entitlement, as if they could just walk out there and would be awarded victory.  They didn’t realize until they were down 18 that this was a bad plan.  When they did, they went to the usual Plan B:  Scott Wood.

Unfortunately, Temple remembered to guard Wood, and he was stifled until late in the 2nd.  Meanwhile, the Owls had a three-point threat of their own in Jake O’Brien, and he dropped 4 of 6 from behind the arc for 12 of his 18 pts.  State rarely got a hand up against him.  Frankly, it seems the Pack had one player who played defense with any consistency all year, that being Richard Howell.

Just when all seemed lost, State started to rally.  Wood began to hit, starting with a couple of free throws followed by threes on two successive possesions. But it was late in the second half by then.  Still, Pack nation had new hope.

Things really got interesting when the lead was cut to two on a Lorenzo Brown three-changed-to-two with two seconds left (no gripe though, his foot was clearly on the line per the replay).  But Temple guard Khalif Wyatt would have none of it.  When he was fouled on the next possession, he calmly sank two free throws to bury the Pack.  Wyatt finished with 31 points to lead all scorers, while Lorenzo Brown led State with 22.

In addition to the forementioned problems, State could not buy a free throw of their own.  This had been a season-long problem as well, and is inexcusable.  Only Wood gets a pass on this one; the rest of the team should spend the entire summer shooting free throws.

So goes another season, and it is not likely anyone will be picking State to win the conference next year.  That won’t be a bad thing, as we seem to fare better when we can sneak up on people.  Except for 1974, and David Thompson isn’t coming back.

So what now?  I suggest the usual:  watch and root for (or against, if you are one of those nobody-but-us fans)  Carolina, Miami and yes, even Duke.  Enjoy the upsets.  Writhe in pain as your bracket inevitably crumbles (or maybe that’s just me).

Football is coming.  And the expectations will be close to zero.

Just the way we like it.

Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, Basketball, March Madness, NC State Correspondent, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , ,
12 Mar 2013

State of the Pack: What has gone before…

So we, the Wolfpack nation, were reduced to this:  pulling for the Maryland Quitterpins vs the favored Virginia Cavaliers.  To make matter worse, the Terps teased us, at times controlling the game before falling short by only four points.  So that was that; no first-round bye in the Acc Tournament, instead a meeting with Virginia Tech on Thursday afternoon.

But how did we get to this point? Time for a (not very) nostalgic look back at the 2013 season…

It started with rampant optimism.  Many prognosticators had NCSU winning the conference, with at least one preaseason magazine picking the Pack to make the Final Four.  The first sign that this might be inacurate came on the sunny isle of Puerto Rico, where State came out flat and lost to Oklahoma State 76-56 in a rout that may not have been as close as the score indicated.  While the Cowboys would prove better than expected, the Pack would not meet their lofty expectations at all.

Still, the ship seemed to be righted on January 12th when State dominated then-number-one Duke 84-76.  Standing at 14-2 and 3-0 in conference play, the Pack looked like they could handle anybody.

At least until the following Wednesday, when the game that perhaps defined this maddening rollercoaster ride occured:  the 51-50 loss at Maryland.  That’s when we all had to admit that despite the great recruiting class, despite the preseason predictions, despite last season’s surprise Sweet 16 appearance, this was no Final Four candidate.

There would be other peaks and valleys this year, beating North Carolina in Raleigh, losing to Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, but the Pack slid slowly down the ratings from a preseason #6  to the current position of a team unranked but at least certain of an NCAA bid.

If force to give this team a letter grade based solely on the regular season, I would go B-.  C+ if not for the split with both Duke and Carolina, B+ if not for the losses to Wake and Maryland, and to FSU when the bye was still ours to lose.

I am a bit disturbed as I check out State message boards around the net.  Some are already howling for Mark Gottfried’s head.  While much did go wrong this year, I urge patience.  We are pretty much guaranteed a second straight trip to the Dance, and as all State fans know, once you get there, who knows?  Our lack of depth is all that is holding us back at this point.

As for the upcoming ACC tournament, we open, as mentioned above, on Thursday vs Virginia Tech at 2 pm.  We should expect to win that one.  Then it will be Virginia on Friday, and I am smelling a Pack victory there as well, although it would be something of an upset.  If so, Miami will likely be waiting in the semifinals, and that should be that.  But if, and I cannot see it happening, we somehow stun the Canes, either Duke or Carolina will be waiting.  I think Carolina; Duke tends to look ahead to the NCAAs and sometimes stumble in the conference tourney.

Anyway, the winner of State/Miami would then face the winner of Duke/UNC.  Any matchup of these four teams will be a final for the ages.  I think Miami vs UNC, and all bets are off.

Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, Basketball, NC State Correspondent, Opinion, Predictions, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , ,
23 Feb 2013
1 Comment

UNC Dominates!!!

Break a three-way tie for third in the ACC standings? Check!

Defend your homecourt and defeat your 2nd-biggest conference rival in the process? Check!

The Tar Heels left little doubt that they are back to form with their 76-65 rout  of NC State. Reggie Bullock, who was injured when these teams met in Raleigh, led all scorers with 22 and added 13 rebounds as Roy Williams’ Heels remained unbeaten against the Wolfpack in Chapel Hill.  James Michael McAdoo could do no wrong, with 14 points and 7 rebounds of his own.

The game itself was a bit ugly for a while.  Despite early turnover troubles, State hung in and were only down 34-28 at half. After a run of their own, the Pack led by four a couple of times.  But at about the six minute mark in the final segment, things changed dramatically.

Suddenly the Heels could do no wrong.  Even on the rare occasion in which they turned the ball over, the Pack could not finish and either missed or gave the possesion back.  To say that Carolina looked like the Harlem Globetrotters vs the Washington Generals is a profound insult to the Generals.

Not to say that the win was the result of Pack ineptitude.  Roy Williams obviously had his squad ready and when the game was on the line, the Heels were able to turn up the heat and secure the win.  That’s what champions do.

It’s probably too late for the Heels to make a run at the regular-season crown.  But I would be very nervous if I were a Duke or Miami fan going into Greensboro…very nervous indeed.

Disclaimer:

Fellow State fans, I am deeply sorry.  However, a bet’s a bet, and to be honest, it was kind of interesting to try and view this from another perspective.  And very, very painful.

Mr. Tar Heel, thanks for agreeing to this and I will (probably) never suggest it again. Congrats on the victory.

Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, NC State Correspondent, Uncategorized and tagged , , ,
22 Feb 2013
4 Comments

State of the Pa…Tar Heels??

What? Here is the deal:

Last time State and UNC met, in a game that went the Wolfpack’s way but not by much, I gave you stats about the rivalry in my preview. This time, I have a slightly different idea.

Last time, ACC Confidential did not have a UNC correspondent. Now we do, in the guise of Mr. Tar Heel, whose posts have been consistently informative and engrossing, as have the posts from my other correspondent colleagues as well as our moderator’s.

So, on the eve of the rematch, I have a proposal for Mr. Tar Heel. Although I am not a betting man, I offer a friendly wager as follows:

If UNC wins, a distinct possibility since we are going to to their place and since this is being billed as a battle for 4th and a bye in the ACC tournament, then I will write a post praising the Heel’s performance. If State wins, then Mr. Tar Heel would write one praising the way the Pack took UNC to task. Simple. Elegant.

I haven’t brought this up via email or any other medium with Mr. Heel, so it may be that he will reject the idea faster than Richard Howell blocking a James Michael McAdoo layup. And that would be fair enough, since I am kind of putting him on the spot.

So, what say you, Mr. Tar Heel? Up for this?


Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, Basketball, NC State Correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , ,
15 Feb 2013

State of the Pack: Basketball Red Zone

OK, now we find out who the Wolfpack really are.  Are we the team that was the ACC preseason favorite or the one that lost so many games they were supposed to win? Admittedly, winning the regular season is a ship that has sailed; it’s pretty much down to Duke and Miami at this point.

However, the close win over Clemson gave some reason to hope.  This game was the kind the Pack had been losing; a close contest in front of a rabid road crowd (no other kind in the ACC).  But when the Tigers had State on the ropes a funny thing happened; for perhaps the first time this season, the Wolfpack responded and were able to eke out a win over a lower-ranked team.

This is an excellent time to discover that State can win these games.  If you look at the rest of the season, there are no ranked teams left.  Per the most recent poll in the Confidential, and despite Virginia being ahead of them in the standings, NCSU is the third-best in the ACC (current membership, not the “futures”) at this point.  With apologies to our own Mr. Tar Heel, every game is winnable from here on out and I would not be surprised if we did finish 24-7 going into the conference tournament.  Of course, we could also go the other way, but my glass is half full and so, I believe, is the Pack’s.

All starts with Saturday’s game vs Va Tech.  Playing at home, we should show out and not be challenged.  This being the ACC, however, I would be satisfied with a nail-biter victory over Erick Green and company.  In the event of a loss, this post will self-destruct…sorry, watching Ghost Protocol on Netflix…

Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, Basketball, NC State Correspondent, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , ,
06 Feb 2013

Why Debbie Yow was right

I know this is a controversial subject, at least among Wolfpack fans, but I believe that Debbie Yow was right to let Tom O’Brien go. To support my position, let’s take a look at O’Brien’s tenure at State:

2007 – After 3 straight 9-3 seasons and eight straight bowl apperances at Boston College, TOB announces that he will be taking his talents to South Beach…er, NC State.  Most State fans, including yours truly, are pretty ecstatic.  His reason for what most view as a lateral move is the fan support he saw when BC visited Raleigh; State seems to be to him as Notre Dame is to Lou Holtz, a destination rather than a stepping-stone (like the Pack was for the aforementioned Holtz).  But an instant miracle is not in the cards; State finishes 5-7 and does not go bowling.

2008 – Fair enough, Coach needs some time to recruit. The team starts slow but provides a feel-good ending with 4 straight wins including a thrashing of UNC that leaves them bowl-eligible. They lose to Rutgers in the PapaJohns.com bowl, but it’s a start.

2009 – This one qualifies as a lost season.  Only a season-ending win vs the Heels that knocks them out of bowl eligibility gives State fans anything to cheer about.  The low point for Coach had to be the 52-20 drubbing the Pack took at BC.  Let the grumbling begin…

2010 – The high point, the one O’Brien will point to when he tells the story of his time at State.  He calms his critics with an 8-4 mark followed by a rout of West Virginia in the Champs Sports Bowl, 23-7.  This is the TOBPack we dreamed of.

2011 – State falls back to 7-5.  There is good news, with a last-game rout of Maryland 56-41, a powerful defensive performance vs UNC 13-0, and a thrilling Belk Bowl win against Louisville 31-24.  But after the 2010 season this really felt like somewhat of a step back. And there would be more of the same in…

2012 – Really? 6-6? Had to beat BC in the final game to get to a bowl again?  Then they lost to Vandy, though that one was on Dana Bible as our Yow had already pulled the trigger and frankly, the team looked a bit lost in this one.

Now, does the body of work mandate a firing?  No.  Is Tom O’Brien a bad coach? No.  I wish him all sucess in his new post as Associate Head Coach at Virginia and feel that he will return to the HC ranks at some point if he so desires.

But here’s the point: O’Brien had taken State about as far as he was likely to.  Yes, we went bowling four times in his six seasons, but we were almost always just this side of mediocre.   Sometimes it is just time, and this was one of those cases.

Will Dave Doeren do better? I don’t have a crystal ball, but he did take a team from a non-BCS conference to the Orange Bowl, a place State has yet to go.  Admittedly this is a completely different challenge than facing the likes of Clemson, Florida State and Virginia Tech on a regular basis, not to mention the newcomers about to change the face of the ACC.  But I look forward to finding out.

As for Yow, I am still pretty psyched about that basketball coach she chose. So let’s give this thing a chance.

Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, Football, NC State Correspondent, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
29 Jan 2013
2 Comments

State of the Pack: Virginia Preview

Let’s take a moment, just one, to relish the victory over UNC.  The Pack got the Heels by the throat in the first half, but a Roy Williams team will never go away.  Still, this win was terrific.

However, as Dick Vitale reminded those of us taking it in on ESPN again…and again…and again, great teams don’t lose to Wake and Maryland on the road.  So tonight, we face Virginia.

The Cavs have had sucess of late after a shaky start. They are on a 3-game win streak including perhaps their signature win so far vs. Florida State. They hang their hat on defense and will likely be able to keep State from breaking out as often as they did against UNC.

However, if the Wolfpack can manufacture some intensity without the home crowd, they should be OK. I’m thinking they are just as tired as the fans of hearing about their road woes, and that they saw a little of what they can be in the first half Sunday night.

Here’s a look at the stat matchup:

Leading scorers: State:  CJ Leslie 15.4, Va:  Joe Harris 14.8

Rebounders:  State:  Richard Howell 11.1, Va:  Akil Mitchell 8.8

Assists:  State:  Lorenzo Brown 7.2,  Va:  Jontel Evans 4.2

Posted by mikemab2000 in Uncategorized
26 Jan 2013
1 Comment

State/Carolina Preview

It’s on tonight, State vs UNC.  So I thought it would be a good time to look at some stats, as follows:

All-time record: UNC 147, State 75

At Raleigh: UNC 57, State 44

Roy Williams vs State: 24-1, 19-1 at Carolina

Mark Gottfried vs UNC: 0-3, all at State

This decade: UNC 7, State 0

Last Pack win: 2/3/2007

And with the recent State loss combined with the resurgence of the Heels, the deck seems stacked against us.  However this cockeyed optimist believes that Coach Gottfried, the PNC crowd and our extremely talented players will rise to the occasion the same way they did against Duke and end the streak tonight.

From an overall perspective, this game has long been overshadowed by the UNC-Duke rivalry.  That at least is finally beginning to change, and however this comes out, the nation will pay attention.

Wish I could take credit for knowing all those stats by heart, but the numbers came from the Wikipedia page about the rivalry and the Yahoo! preview.

Hope we land a UNC blogger soon so we can get a little friendly back-and-forth going in the future.  Come on, Tar Heel Nation, step up!

Posted by mikemab2000 in Uncategorized and tagged , ,
24 Jan 2013
2 Comments

New Contributor: NC State

Hi all, my name is Mike and I will be the NC State blogger on ACC Confidential. I am a lifelong Pack fan who enjoyed both the ’74 and ’83 hoops title seasons, not to mention all the football action (no NCAA crowns yet, but not giving up…).
Like most of you, I am also a booster of the ACC; the gold standard for basketball and better than most think in football. Realignment is the hot topic right now for the league, but I am optimistic it will survive and thrive in the whatever the new normal turns out to be.
As for the Wolfpack’s current basketball season, what a rollercoaster! Beating Duke but losing to Maryland and now Wake…seems to me the Pack is loaded but not playing as a team. I have no doubt coach Gottfried can turn that around, though.
More about that next time. For now, just happy to join the community and looking forward to adding whatever I can to the conversation.

Posted by mikemab2000 in Uncategorized and tagged

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