The Confidential

ACC Football: The Need for Florida State and Miami

The formula is pretty simple for the ACC.  It needs Miami and Florida State to play like kings.  It needs Virginia Tech and Clemson to be the next closes thing to a king.  And it needs a few other schools to rise up every few years and/or win impressive out-of-conference games, including bowl games.  But none of that works unless Miami and Florida State can return to something closer to the glory days.  They are the schools that need to carry the conference in football.

The Kings

Football is an elitist sport.  No matter how bad Ohio State and Florida might be, a win over those schools means a lot and a loss to these schools is respectable.  In contrast, losing to Iowa State is an unacceptable result.  Nevermind that Iowa State had the same regular season record as those schools in 2011, Oklahoma State was punished substantially for its loss to Iowa State.  Iowa State is simply not Ohio State or Florida, regardless of the record.

Once upon a time, Miami and Florida State were kings.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State went 11-1, 11-1, 10-2, 10-2, 11-2, 11-1, 12-1, 10-1-1, 10-2, 11-1, 11-1, 11-2, 12-0, and 11-2.  From 1983 to 2003, Miami had more than a dozen 10 win seasons, including three undefeated seasons. That is how you become a king–you win 10 or more games more often than not (or consecutively) for so long that people do not even know what it is like for you to not be in the top 10, much less unranked.

But that all ended in 2004, when Miami joined the ACC.  Perhaps not because of the move to the ACC.  But the move has certainly coincided with the fall from the top.  Since then, Miami has not had a 10-win season.  Florida State had one–in 2010.  Instead of playing like kings, these schools have played like princes.  Or worse.  Boston College won 10 games in both 2006 and 2007.  Wake Forest won 11 in 2006.  Obviously, it is not impossible to win 10+ games in the ACC.  The Florida schools just have not been able to do so.

For 2011, it was more of the same.  Miami went a pedestrian 6-6.  Good enough for a bowl, but the looming scandal persuaded the administrators to prudently pass that up.  Florida State did better, going 9-4.  But that is still not king territory.

What Went Wrong

The easiest answer is to blame the coaching situation.  Bobby Bowden might have stayed a bit too long–past his prime.  And Miami fired Larry Coker for having the audacity to not win 10 games and did not replace him.  Unlike the pros, college sports is dominated by coaches.

But the Confidential thinks it goes deeper than that.  In recent years, many schools have taken to recruiting Florida heavily.  When Greg Schiano moved up to Rutgers, he kept his Florida ties and established a pipeline from Miami to New Jersey.  The Louisville coaching staffs have consistently focused on Florida, from John L. Smith to present.  Wherever Rich Rodriguez was during the 2000’s, he recruited top athletes from Florida.  Add in the usual suspects, such as all of the SEC and ACC, as well as Notre Dame, and Florida talent is not slipping by.

Meanwhile, South Florida and Central Florida have arrived on the scene.  These schools have the ability to siphon off some of the great talent, while also keeping some of the good talent at home.  South Florida has made great strides toward converting Florida into a Big Four.

Will it Change?

Well, this is two straight 9-4 seasons for Florida State.  And it is a young team that can legitimately be projected to get over the 10-win barrier next year.  They have continued to stockpile talent via recent recruiting classes.  If it can translate into on-field performance, then Florida State will be back.

Miami is a different story.  While the scandal from last summer has died down, the NCAA is likely to dole out some sort of punishment.  So it is going to get worse before it gets better.  But Al Golden seems like the right fit to get the job done.  He kept that team together for most of the season.  Take away the head-scratching losses to Maryland (suspension-filled) and BC (already announced it was not bowling), and Miami was only beaten by Virginia, Va Tech, Kansas State and Florida State.  Four games by a total of 18 points.  If the sanctions are not too significant, Miami can rebound in a few years.

The bottom line is that the ACC needs things to change.  Virginia Tech and Clemson may win a national title some day, but failing to do so when Miami and FSU were reeling suggests otherwise.  As the bowl losses and national-reputation hits mount, it is going to take one or both of the Florida schools to state the ACC’s case on the national picture.  The sooner, the better.