The Confidential

Latest Mock Brackets–North Carolina State and Miami Still Nervous

With only one game left involving ACC teams, and few games left overall, the mock brackets are increasingly relevant.  For Miami and North Carolina State, there will be no exhaling until they see good news when the brackets are announced.  In the meantime, all anyone can do is look at what the experts are predicting.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has North Carolina State in the field, but Miami on the outside.  This is unchanged.  Overall, Lunardi considers the bubble to be 17 teams fighting for 9 spots.  And, really, it is not clear that Seton Hall’s profile is that much better than Miami’s.  The tournament committee may very well conclude that 9 Big East teams are plenty and allow Miami to take that spot.

Also at ESPN, Bubble Watch had this to say about the ACC, North Carolina State, and Miami:

After NC State’s close loss to rival North Carolina on Saturday, the remaining ACC bubble teams have officially bowed out of the conference postseason. So where do they stand? Miami is in trouble after Friday’s loss to Florida State, but not totally out of the picture, depending on how much weight the committee gives to that marquee win at Duke. NC State, meanwhile, has to feel more confident about its bid. If the committee saw Saturday’s loss (preceded by a win over Virginia), they saw a team play one of the nation’s best close for all 40 minutes — the last eight of which came without its best player, C.J. Leslie, who fouled out on a massive mistake by the NCSU coaching staff — and one that received the worst end of a universally bad officiating performance by the ACC referees. (When Pack fans complain that Duke and UNC get all the calls, Kendall Marshall’s apparent game-winning charge is what they mean.) In any case, the committee was no doubt in front of the TV, and even without the win, NC State’s effort seems likely to be rewarded.

North Carolina State [22-12 (9-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 30] Mark Gottfried’s team entered the day as one of Joe Lunardi’s last four teams in the tournament, which is a pretty good spot to be in when your worst-case scenario is a loss to putative No. 1 seed North Carolina. An uncompetitive blowout loss might have changed this status for the worse, but what NC State did — playing UNC close to the final buzzer, and getting the wrong end of a couple of key calls (the refs were bad for both teams, but there’s little question that NC State felt the lion’s share of the pain) — certainly can’t hurt their chances, can it? The Pack is far from a lock, of course (there’s that pesky 1-8 record against the top 50), but they’re in much better shape than when they arrived in Atlanta. That much is for sure.

Miami (FL) [19-12 (9-7), RPI: 58, SOS: 51] Can the Hurricanes still get in the tournament? To do so, they’ll need some help, some confluence of bubble losses around them that pave the way, because after Friday night’s loss to Florida State, Jim Larranaga’s team finds itself most likely outside the bubble (as per Joe Lunardi) — and without another game to boost its credentials with less than 48 hours until the bracket is revealed. After Friday’s loss, Miami is 2-8 against the RPI top 50, with a good win over Florida State and a great win at Duke but only one other victory — and three more losses (or 3-11 overall) — in the top 100. The near-60 RPI isn’t necessarily prohibitive, but it ain’t pretty. Taken as a whole with the rest of this profile, there’s just not as much here as you’d like. Miami’s fate is in the committee’s hands, and if we had to guess, we’d say the Canes aren’t going to like what they hear Sunday. But hey, it’s March. You never know.

Not exactly painting the ACC referees with a positive picture.  In any event, the commentary regarding the resumes of both teams is accurate enough for both teams to expect to sweat it out tomorrow.

One other very interesting thing was the report that the tournament committee has already selected the at-large teams.  All that is left is seeding.  It makes some sense given the absence of bubble teams still playing.  But it is surprising that someone would go so far as to say it.  If you are a bubble team, you are hoping that due consideration was given to your resume.