The Confidential

Penn State and ACC Football

While the Penn State situation impacts all of college football, it may have a direct impact on ACC football.  Quite obviously, there is the proximity of many schools.  But the ACC’s recent expansion to include Syracuse and Pittsburgh may result in adding the two main beneficiaries in the Penn State decline that is inevitably to occur in the upcoming decade.

Interestingly, while the Florida State fans may dismiss the addition of Pittsburgh and Syracuse from a football standpoint, both schools have had substantial football moments.  Beginning in 1978, look at the records:

• 1976: Pittsburgh 12-0, Penn State 7-5, Syracuse 3-8 = 22-13
• 1977: Penn State 11-1, Pitt 9-2-1, Syracuse 6-5 = 26-8-1
• 1978: Penn State 11-1, Pitt 8-4, Syracuse 3-8 = 22-13
• 1979: Pitt 11-1; Penn State 8-4, Syracuse 7-5 = 26-10
• 1980: Pitt 11-1; Penn State 10-2, Syracuse 5-6 = 26-9
• 1981: Pitt 11-1, Penn State 10-2, Syracuse 4-6-1 = 25-9-1
• 1982: Penn State 11-1, Pitt 9-3, Syracuse 2-9 = 22-13
• 1983: Pitt 8-3-1, Penn State 8-4-1, Syracuse 6-5 = 22-12-2
• 1984: Syracuse 6-5, Penn State 6-5, Pitt 3-7-1 = 15-17-1
• 1985: Penn State 11-1, Syracuse 7-5, Pitt 5-5-1 = 23-11-1
• 1986: Penn State 12-0, Pitt 5-5-1, Syracuse 5-6 = 22-11-1
• 1987: Syracuse 11-0-1, Penn State 8-4, Pitt 8-4 = 27-8-1
• 1988: Syracuse 10-2, Pitt 8-4, Penn State 5-6 = 23-12
• 1989: Penn State 8-3-1, Pitt 8-3-1, Syracuse 8-4 = 24-10-2
• 1990: Penn State 9-3, Syracuse 7-4-2, Pitt 3-7-1 = 19-14-3
• 1991: Penn State 11-2, Syracuse 10-2, Pitt 6-5 = 27-9
• 1992: Syracuse 10-2, Penn State 7-5, Pitt 3-9 = 20-16
• 1993: Penn State 10-2,  Syracuse 6-4-1, Pitt 3-8 = 19-14-1
• 1994: Penn State 12-0, Syracuse 7-4, Pitt 3-8 = 22-12
• 1995: Penn State 9-3, Syracuse 9-3, Pitt 2-9 = 20-15
• 1996: Penn State 11-2, Syracuse 9-3, Pitt 4-7 = 24-12
• 1997: Penn State 9-3, Syracuse 9-4, Pitt 6-6 = 24-13
• 1998: Penn State 9-3, Syracuse 8-4, Pitt 2-9 = 19-16
• 1999: Penn State 10-3, Syracuse 7-5, Pitt 5-6 = 22-13
• 2000: Pitt 7-5, Syracuse 6-5, Penn State 5-7 = 18-17
• 2001: Syracuse 10-3, Pitt 7-5, Penn State 5-6 = 22-12
• 2002: Pitt 9-4, Penn State 9-4, Syracuse 4-8 = 22-16
• 2003: Pitt 8-5, Syracuse 6-6, Penn State 3-9 = 17-20
• 2004: Pitt 8-4, Syracuse 6-6; Penn State 4-7 = 18-17
• 2005: Penn State 11-1, Pitt 5-6, Syracuse 1-10 = 17-17
• 2006: Penn State 9-4, Pitt 6-6, Syracuse 4-8 = 17-18
• 2007: Penn State 9-4, Pitt 5-7, Syracuse 2-10 = 16-21
• 2008: Penn State 11-2, Pitt 9-4, Syracuse 3-9 = 23-15
• 2009: Penn State 11-2, Pitt 10-3, Syracuse 4-8 = 25-13
• 2010: Syracuse 8-5, Pitt 8-5, Penn State 7-6 = 23- 16
• 2011: Penn State 9-4, Pitt 6-7, Syracuse 5-7 = 20-18
• 2012: TBD

During this entire period, there were only two seasons (2005 and 2007) where two of these teams were not bowl eligible at the end of the season.  Both of those seasons just happened to come during Syracuse’s dreadful Greg Robinson era.* Pitt had a similarly dreadful era from 1992 to 1995, where Paul Hackett and Johnny Majors led them to a combined 11-34.  But, for the most part, Syracuse and Pitt have ordinarily managed to have bad seasons with 4 wins or so.

If Penn State drops to a point where they are not capable of fielding a team able to win more than 2 or 3 FBS games a year, those players have to go  somewhere.  If Pitt and Syracuse are able to siphon off some of that talent, it only stands to reason that both can improve by one or two wins a year.

To be sure, there was not Rutgers or UConn to contend with in the 1980’s and 1990’s.  Even Temple is finally playing up to its potential.  So nothing guarantees that Pitt and Syracuse will pick up the slack.  The move to the ACC might, however, be the shot in the arm that convinces more of these players to go with Pitt and Syracuse (and BC), rather than Rutgers, UConn, and Temple.

Still, the three teams have historically averaged about 22 to 23 wins between them.  If Penn State is only  contributing 2 or 3 wins, that could mean 9 or 10 win seasons for Pitt and/or Syracuse.  If so, the ACC will have to be pleased with these two schools’ contributions to the football equation.

* In the three seasons preceding his era, coaches were 16-20.  In the three seasons after his era, coaches were 17-20.  During his era, Syracuse was 10-37.