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03 Jan 2012

#21 Virginia Defeats LSU, Improves to 13-1

At the beginning of the year, the ACC only had two ranked teams–Duke and North Carolina.  Virginia has climbed into the rankings with a solid November and December.  Virginia’s January got off to a great start, as the #21 Cavaliers traveled to Baton Rouge to defeat LSU, 57-52, to improve to 13-1.

This game was a very close, defensive struggle as both teams shot less than 45% from the field.  It was tied at halftime, 26-26.  And, with five minutes to go, the Cavs trailed 47-46.  But Virginia was fairly clutch down the stretch with its free throw shooting and three-point shots to pull off the victory.

Virginia was led by Sammy Zeglinski’s 17 points.  Joe Harris added 14 points, while Mike Scott had 12 points and 9 rebounds.  Virginia opens the ACC schedule on Saturday against Miami.

Speaking of Miami, the ended the out-of-conference schedule with a 99-89 win over North Carolina-Greensboro.  Kenny Kadji scored led Miami with 30 points and 12 rebounds.  Three other Hurricanes finished in double-digits in scoring.

But the rest of the ACC fared poorly. Wake Forest lost some significant momentum by losing to Wofford, at home, 56-52.   Wake Forest had won 3 in a row and was looking to get its 10th overall win.  With the loss, Wake drops to 9-5 as it heads into conference play.

Meanwhile, Boston College continued to cement its position as the cellar-dweller in the ACC, losing to Rhode Island in double-overtime, 78-72.  The Eagles dropped to 5-9 with the home loss to the Rams (who improved to 3-12).  It’s going to be a very long season for Boston College.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , ,
02 Jan 2012

The Confidential’s Basketball Top 30 for January 2, 2012

With over 300 teams in college basketball, the top 25 is just not enough anymore.  Here is the Confidential’s Top 30 for January 12, 2012:

  1. Syracuse (15-0).  One of only four unbeatens.  Travel to Providence before hosting scrappy Marquette on Saturday.  Marquette has had Syracuse’s number lately.
  2. Kentucky (13-1).  Loss to Indiana hurts, but rallied to beat Louisville.  Next test is Saturday against South Carolina.
  3. North Carolina (13-2).  No real tough games for a while.  Duke will be tested more often over the next few weeks.
  4. Duke (12-1).  Ready to leapfrog North Carolina with a few more wins.  Upcoming game against Temple is a start.
  5. Missouri (13-0).  The Tigers are undefeated and have better wins than Baylor.  That will not last forever, but that is how it is right now.
  6. Baylor (13-0).  The Big XII will separate the men from the boys.  Soon enough Baylor and Missouri will sort things out.
  7. UConn (12-1).  12-1 and rolling.  UConn has improving Seton Hall and up-and-down Rutgers this week.
  8. Michigan State (13-2).  Win over Indiana was big.  So far, only two losses are to North Carolina and Duke.
  9. Indiana (13-1).  Only loss was to MSU–at MSU.  Wins over Kentucky and Ohio State are very nice.
  10. Ohio State (13-2).  Loss to Kansas short-handed and lost to Indiana (just like Kentucky did).  Some nice wins too.
  11. Georgetown (12-1).  Watch out  for the Hoyas–young players that are starting to get on a roll.
  12. Kansas (10-3).  Kansas could go up and they could go down.  The feeling is that they are not staying right here though.
  13. UNLV (15-2).  Impressive wins over UNC and Illinois.  No shame in losing to Wisconsin or Wichita State.
  14. Louisville (12-2).  Two losses in a row–even to Georgetown and Kentucky–cause a drop in the standings.  This is about right for the Cards.
  15. Harvard (12-1).  Only loss is to UConn.  The teams behind them cannot say that–all have at least one head-scratcher.
  16. Murray State (14-0).  Likely to be the last team to get a loss.  It’s going to take one heck of an upset.
  17. Marquette (12-2).  Gets the nod here by virtue of beating Wisconsin head-to-head.  Had “one of those games” against Vanderbilt.
  18. Wisconsin (12-3).  Loss to Iowa is a perplexing.  Wisconsin was on a mini-roll.
  19. Mississippi State (13-2).  Had a chance to really climb, but fell to still-undefeated Butler.  Only game this week is Arkansas.
  20. Florida (10-3).  Losses to Syracuse and Ohio State were reasonable.  Rutgers?  Not so much.
  21. Virginia (12-1).  If they can get to 14-1, things will look better.  LSU beat Marquette.  Miami will give them a game.
  22. Michigan (12-2).  If they can get to 14-2, they will leapfrog Virginia and others.  That would require beating Indiana and Wisconsin!
  23. Creighton (11-2).  Hard to figure–suffered an upset loss, but then rebounded with an upset win over Wichita State.  Parity.
  24. San Diego State (12-2).  Not challenging itself right now.  Hard not to win.
  25. Kansas State (11-1).  They have Kansas and Missouri this week.  Tough week.
  26. Gonzaga (11-2).  Only losses were to Michigan State and Illinois.  Win over Xavier looked better than it does now.
  27. Seton Hall (12-2).  Losses to Syracuse and Northwestern.  #4 RPI so far.
  28. Virginia Tech (11-3).  Two wins over Oklahoma State, plus they gave Syracuse their best test so far this year.
  29. Purdue (12-3).  Realistically, could and should be higher.  A tough January will allow Purdue to prove same.
  30. Stanford (12-2).  Only losses were to Syracuse and Butler.  This team will only get better too.

Tell us what you think.  How would you differ?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , ,
02 Jan 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 2, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of January 2, 2012:

1.  Syracuse (15-0)  Still rolling.  #1 in the country and just picked up a win in Chicago over DePaul.

2. North Carolina (13-2)  The Tar Heels are still winding their way through a weak part of the schedule.

3. Duke (12-1)  Temple and Georgia Tech this week.  The OOC is almost over.

4. Virginia (12-1)  Things are looking good for the Cavs.  12-1, with conference play on the horizon.

5. Virginia Tech (11-3)  Great win over Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Wake Forest looms this weekend.

6. North Carolina State (10-4) 4-0 since losing to Syracuse.  One more OOC to plod through before the conference games start.

7. Maryland (9-3) 6 wins in a row, with Cornell up next.

8. Florida State (8-5)  Loss to Florida was disappointing.  Lost to Princeton is a serious blow.

9. Pittsburgh (11-4)  Another loss.  Wheels are starting to fall off here.

10. Wake Forest (9-4)  Record is nice, but the level of opponents is just not there.

11. Miami (8-4)  The Hurricanes need to do some damage in early conference play.

12. Georgia Tech (7-6) The wheels have fallen off.   This team is too good to be struggling at .500.

13. Clemson (8-6)  13th, but a lot of room to move up.  Clemson may be better than a few teams ahead of them.

14. Boston College (5-8)  Still in the cellar.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
01 Jan 2012

ACC Basketball Recap: December 31, 2011

The last day of 2011 basketball games went very well for the ACC, as it won all three games.

Leading the way was Virginia Tech defeating Oklahoma State, 67-61.  If this matchup sounds familiar, it is.  The Hokies defeated Oklahoma State in the consolation game of the NIT Season Tip-Off in New York City.  This time, Virginia Tech traveled to Stillwater to defeat the Cowboys.  Although this is not a great Oklahoma State team (7-6), this is an important win for the Hokies, who seem to perennially be on the Big Dance Bubble.  With the win, Virginia Tech moves to 11-3.  Dorenzo Hudson led Virginia Tech with 18 points.  The Hokies begin conference play next Saturday by traveling to Wake Forest.

North Carolina State improved to 10-4 with its 82-55 win over West Carolina.  All five starters for the Wolfpack finished in double-figures in scoring, led by CJ Williams’ 21 points.  Richard Howell added 14 rebounds.  That’s four straight wins for NC State since losing to #1 Syracuse in early December.  They get Delaware State on Wednesday before their January 8th ACC opener against Maryland.

And Maryland improved to 9-3 by edging pesky Samford, 75-63.  It was the Terrell Stoglin show for Maryland, as he led the team with 24 points.  ESPN’s recap added:

Maryland (9-3) has won six straight and finished the month of December undefeated — the Terrapins’ last loss coming Nov. 29.

It was the ninth time in 12 games that Stoglin, the Atlantic Coast Conference’s leading scorer, scored 20 points or more. He hit six 3-pointers, a career best, for the second game in a row. Maryland was 9 of 17 (52.9 percent) beyond the arc.

Indeed, the Terps were only 3-3 at the end of November and looking to match their football team in terms of disappointment.  Maryland hosts struggling Cornell (4-8) on Tuesday as the final tune-up for its opener against NC State.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , ,
31 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Final 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the final 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Clemson, Virginia Tech, and future member Pittsburgh.  So far, the Confidential is 3-1, correctly predicting the results on all but the Wake Forest game.

On January 3rd, the Sugar Bowl will feature Virginia Tech (11-2) and Michigan (10-2).  This game will be a battle between the explosive running attack of the Wolverines and the stingy rushing defense of Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech was able to bottle up Georgia Tech earlier in the year.  However, Michigan was able to move the ball against a good Nebraska defense.  Neither team had an extraordinarily difficult schedule.  The Hokies will be playing without their kicker, which might make a difference if this comes down to a low-scoring game.  Giving the Hokies defense this much time to prepare is the difference.   Prediction: Virginia Tech 21-Michigan 16.

On January 4th, the Orange Bowl will put ACC Champion Clemson (10-3) against Big East Champion West Virginia (9-3). Both of these teams had disappointing seasons for conference champions.  West Virginia certainly wishes it could redo a few of its games, especially the blowout loss to 5-7 Syracuse.  Clemson had that perplexing blowout loss to North Carolina State.  In losing to these teams, both foes showed that they can be shutdown completely.  At the same time, Clemson showed that it could beat tough teams, as demonstrated by wins over Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech.  West Virginia played LSU tough for a spell, but really lacks that quality win.  Prediction: Clemson 35 – West Virginia 27. 

Last, but certainly least, future ACC member Pittsburgh takes its 6-6 record into Birmingham to face 7-5 SMU in the BBVA Compass Bowl.  Pittsburgh has been in a state of coaching flux.  SMU was able to keep June Jones from wandering away.  Maybe Pitt can win this one to stick it to former coach Todd Graham, but the Confidential just does not see it.  Prediction: SMU 24- Pittsburgh 20.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
30 Dec 2011

ACC Basketball Recap: December 29, 2011

December 29 was a tough night for the ACC, as two of its five teams in action suffered defeats.

Boston College lost to Harvard at home, 67-46.  That Boston College lost was not surprising, as Harvard is 11-1 on the year now and ranked in the top 25.  What is disappointing is that, according to CBS, it was “the fourth straight season that Harvard has beaten Boston College on the Eagles’ home court.”  That is how far things have fallen for the Eagles.  Losing to Harvard is part of a trend, not an anomaly.  With the loss, Boston College drops to 5-8 on the season.

Georgia Tech lost to Fordham, 72-66.   If there is a good news, it is that Georgia Tech did not lose at home.  Still, this is a Fordham team that is now 6-6 and has already lost to Monmouth and Lehigh.  There is no reason for an ACC school to lose a game like this.  With the loss, the Yellow Jackets drop to a disappointing 7-6.  Jason Morris came off the bench to lead Georgia Tech with 17 points.

Wake Forest had some serious trouble with Yale, before ultimately winning 72-71.  Actually, at one point, Wake Forest had a 19 point lead over the visitors.  And Wake Forest never trailed in the game.  Nevertheless, Yale rallied to close the gap during the second half to make for some antacid moments down the stretch.  With the loss, Yale drops to a respectable 8-3.  With the win, Wake Forest improves to 9-4.  CJ Harris led the Demon Deacons with 23 points.

North Carolina State also improved to 9-4 with its 87-81 victory over visiting Campbell.  Lorenzo Brown led the Wolfpack with 24 points, 8 rebounds, and 8 assists.  Richard Howell had 17 points and 17 rebounds.  Yes, that is not a misprint…. 17 rebounds.  In fact, North Carolina State outrebounded Campbell 40-22.  They also went an impressive 28 for 31 from the free throw line.  Only Campbell’s hot shooting–50.9% from the field and 64.3% from three-point range–kept this game close.

Finally, #5 North Carolina improved to 12-2 by defeating overmatched Elon, 100-62.  No surprises here.  The Tar Heels held Elon to 33.3% shooting, outrebounded them 57-31, had a 25-5 free throw attempt advantage, and only committed 8 fouls en route to a blowout win.  The usual suspects did the early damage, as Tyler Zeller had 19 points and 13 rebounds, while Harrison Barnes added 18 points.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , ,
29 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Middle 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the middle 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.  Not to get cocky, but the Confidential is 2 for 2 so far, having predicted Missouri to defeat North Carolina by 11 (actual margin 17) and North Carolina State to defeat Louisville by 4 (actual margin 7).  While tonight will feature the final game of the first three, it is time to move onto the next three–the games of December 30 and 31.

On December 30, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) will travel to Nashville to take on Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) in the Music City Bowl.  As the .500 records suggest, neither team does a particularly outstanding job at anything.  Mississippi State is currently favored by 6.5 points, as perhaps the SEC pedigree is dictating Vegas.  After all, their losses were to stud teams LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn.  The problem is that their best win was against Louisiana Tech.  In contrast, Wake Forest stumbled to a season-opening loss at Syracuse in overtime (who was 5-2 at one point this year), but otherwise lost only to bowl teams.  And Wake Forest did beat Florida State and North Carolina State.  Edge to Wake Forest.  Prediction: Wake Forest 23-Mississippi State 21.

On December 31, Georgia Tech (8-4) faces off against Utah (7-5) in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.  You know what you are going to get from the Yellow Jackets.  About 300 yards of rushing and maybe 150 yards of passing.  Meanwhile, Utah has been outstanding against the run–giving up only 98 yards per game on the ground.  That is 8th in the nation.  Plus, the Utes will have several weeks to prepare for the Georgia Tech attack–something most teams do not get week-to-week.  But the bigger question is whether Utah can move the ball against Georgia Tech.  If Utah’s defense does what it can do, it will not need to score much to win.  Prediction: Utah 20 – Georgia Tech 14. 

On December 31, the final ACC game during the calendar year 2011 will involve Virginia (8-4) playing Auburn (7-5) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia.  Auburn has had its offensive woes this year as it transitions out of the Cam Newton era.  To be sure, they have to do that in the ever-difficult SEC.  Meanwhile, Virginia was only able to score 14 points in its final two games of the season against Florida State and Virginia Tech.  This has all the makings of a defensive struggle.  Maybe The Confidential is just a little too fond of Mike London.  This may be a case of having the ACC-Goggles on.  Prediction: Virginia 24-Auburn 14.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
29 Dec 2011
1 Comment

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 29, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 29, 2011:

1.  Syracuse (14-0)  Still rolling.  Destroyed a decent Seton Hall team in the conference opener.

2. North Carolina (12-2)  The Tar Heels don’t play a ranked team until February 8th against Duke.

3. Duke (10-1)  If Duke wins the next five, including games against Temple and Virginia, they have to move ahead of North Carolina.

4. Virginia (11-1)  The Confidential moved the Cavs ahead of Pittsburgh in the last rankings… and Virginia is now ranked in the polls too.

5. Virginia Tech (10-3)  An upcoming game against Oklahoma State is a rare in-season rematch against an OOC foe.

6. Florida State (8-4)  Loss to Florida was disappointing.  But Florida is really, really good this year.

7. Pittsburgh (11-3)  No excuse for loss to Wagner.  Even the loss at Notre Dame is a head shaker.

8.  North Carolina State (8-4) 2-0 since losing to Syracuse.  All winnable games for a few more weeks.  Need to keep the momentum going.

9. Maryland (8-3) Maryland rises another spot–the Terps have won FIVE in a row now.

10. Wake Forest (8-4)  A few wins in a row now against middling competition.

11. Miami (7-4) Played some tough opponents, but Miami needs to start stringing together wins.

12. Georgia Tech (7-5) Lost to Mercer was unacceptable.

13. Clemson (7-6)  Just not winning enough.  Got to win early in the season to have a chance.

14. Boston College (5-7)  Three in a row going into game against ranked Harvard.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Dec 2011

Conference Scheduling Arrangements–Not Likely for the ACC

Today’s news in college sports is that the Big 10 and Pac-12 have reached an agreement to have conference foes matchup in football every year beginning in 2017.  The arrangement in football will actually lag well behind the other sports, as the conferences hope to have basketball schools play each other next year.  The question, of course, is whether the ACC try to find a similar arrangement.  The Confidential is skeptical that the ACC will try to reach a similar cooperative plan with any other conference.

Unlike the Big 10 and Pac-12, the ACC does not have a conference that is a natural partner/rival.  If the ACC was to try to drum up a similar plan, the Confidential believes that the SEC could work.  While not too meaningful from a geographic expansion standpoint, the closeness of the locations of the schools would perhaps make it even more contentious. In fact, there are already several games featuring rivals from the two conferences.  And there are often games between schools from the two conferences.  So, perhaps the ACC and SEC could consider a scheduling arrangement that builds off of the natural rivalries already being played.

As an example, the ACC and SEC could plan to have games like this in a typical season:

  • Florida State: Florida
  • Georgia Tech: Georgia
  • Clemson: South Carolina
  • Duke: Vanderbilt
  • North Carolina: Tennessee
  • Wake Forest: Mississippi
  • North Carolina State: Texas A&M
  • Virginia: Arkansas
  • Virginia Tech: LSU
  • Boston College: Missouri
  • Syracuse: Kentucky
  • Maryland: Mississippi State
  • Miami: Alabama
  • Pittsburgh: Auburn

Those would be pretty competitive games.  It would also help ensure that the ACC trio of Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson are not at a competitive disadvantage simply because their rivalries force them to play SEC schools.  While not everyone in the ACC can play an elite SEC school, a game against Kentucky or Mississippi State is more challenging than a Sun Belt or MAC opponent.

The detriment, of course, is that such agreements erode scheduling flexibility.  If you are Boston College, 8 or 9 conference games, plus the annual Notre Dame game and a mandatory SEC game would leave only 1 or 2 openings.

But there is an even greater reason for the ACC to eschew a scheduling arrangement like the Big 10 and Pac-12 have reached.  Money.  Both the Big 10 and Pac-12 have network agreements that give tangible incentives to expand the geographic scope of the network.  For the Big 10, it can expand into a new region–say New Jersey to take Rutgers–and reap the benefits of one new market.  Instead, it just gave everyone on the West Coast a reason to want the Big 10 Network.  If that’s the only way to see the big USC-Ohio State game, people will add the channel.

In contrast, the ACC and SEC have deals with ESPN that do not confer a direct benefit for expanding the footprint.  So, in the end, it is difficult to see the ACC trying to duplicate what the Big 10 and Pac-12 have done.  There is just not enough of an incentive to do it.  At least right now.  Time will tell.

What do you think?  Should the ACC try to set-up a scheduling arrangement?  If so, with what conference?

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , ,
28 Dec 2011

North Carolina State Takes Home the Belk

North Carolina State finished the 2011 season with an 8-5 record, after defeating Louisville in the Belk Bowl by a 31-24 score.   Junior quarterback Mike Glennon led the way for the Wolfpack, passing for 264 yards and three touchdowns.

The good game for Glennon was all the more necessary as Louisville was able to shutdown North Carolina State’s ground game.  James Washington was held to 45 yards on 16 carries.  But the passing attack allowed North Carolina State to jump out to a 21-10 lead at halftime.  TJ Graham was the other offensive star, converting 7 receptions into 116 yards and two touchdowns.  Of course, the defense did its part too, scoring on a 65-yard interception return in the third quarter to improve the score to 31-10.

Give credit to Louisville and its coach Charlie Strong.  The Cardinals rallied in the second half to narrow the score after relying on trick plays, such as a fake punt and onside kick.  And freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater made it interesting with his 274 yards passing and three touchdowns of his own.  But the damage was done in the first three quarters as North Carolina State got the big lead and held on to the victory.

For the Wolfpack, the season ends on a high note.  After being upset by Boston College, North Carolina State defeated Clemson, Maryland, and Louisville to finish with an 8-5 record.  That’s two bowl wins in a row, following last year’s defeat of West Virginia in the Champs Bowl.

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Game Review and tagged , , , , ,

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