The Confidential

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The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: North Carolina

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For North Carolina, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Tar Heels ended up with 11 regular season wins, sweeping the regular season after a disappointing loss to an underwhelming South Carolina team in Week 1.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for North Carolina at 8.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/3 Sat @ Georgia
9/10 Sat @ Illinois
9/17 Sat vs. James Madison
9/24 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
10/1 Sat @ *Florida State
10/8 Sat vs. *Virginia Tech
10/15 Sat @ *Miami (Florida)
10/22 Sat @ *Virginia
11/5 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech
11/10 Thu @ *Duke
11/19 Sat vs. Citadel
11/25 Fri vs. *North Carolina State

Very likely wins: James Madison, Citadel

Very likely losses: @ Georgia, @ Florida State

Verdict: Last year was a great year for North Carolina, with a final record of 11-3.  The 11-straight regular season wins was substantially impressive and the one regular season loss to South Carolina was in Game 1.  This year, North Carolina starts with an even more difficult SEC foe–Georgia.  Then, Illinois on the road.  Should be a win, but a Big 10 school at home is hard to characterize as a “very likely” win, regardless of the talent.  Despite the talent in Chapel Hill, it is hard to find “very likely” wins on a schedule that has many wins that would not be surprising, but just not enough certainty to be even surprised by a loss.  Virginia and Duke are on the road.  Who knows what Miami and Virginia Tech will be under new coaches?  All in all, the Confidential just does not see North Carolina doing nearly as well as last year.  That means an over-under of 8.5 regular season wins.

What do you think?  Will North Carolina go over or under 8.5 regular season wins?


Belk Kickoff Classic – Watch for a Carolina Victory

Just days away from what should be an exciting game in Charlotte between North Carolina and South Carolina, it’s time to preview the two teams and pick a winner.

In one of the more intriguing matchups coming Thursday night, a high powered Tar Heel offense and questionable defense meet a questionable offense and below average defense in the Gamecocks. So we’ll divide the two teams up by these two lines (and these two alone) and predict a winner.

Battle Fronts (stats from 2014 via

North Carolina offense – 35th in the nation with 55 touchdowns and 429.8 yards per game.
Returns one of the most underrated dual-threat QBs in the nation in Marquise Williams.

South Carolina defense – 92nd in the nation allowing 432.7 yards per game.
Returns 8 starters

North Carolina defense – ranked 117th in the nation allowing 497.8 yards per game
New scheme under first year DC Gene Chizik

South Carolina offense – ranked 33rd in the nation with 51 touchdowns and 443.4 yards per game
Returns 5 starters and will begin with a new QB.

Expect South Carolina to improve on their defensive numbers from last year having returned 8 starters from the defensive line. Expect North Carolina to improve from their offensive numbers from last year having returned essentially an entire offensive line headlined by dual-threat QB Marquise Williams. Expect South Carolina offense to be about average in this game and/or slightly off their averages from last year given the new QB and questionable North Carolina defense. Expect North Carolina to improve slightly from their defensive numbers (or the defense that wasn’t) from a season ago.

Having said that, what happens with this game? North Carolina SHOULD win in a thriller over a new QB even though it will be a homecoming of sorts for the former Wakefield star Conner Mitch. The biggest question mark surrounding the Tar Heels is that defense. You’ve all seen the numbers and graphics from what new DC Chizik has been able to do in his first year at every team he has gone to, and if you have, you know some of us have been saying that ANY defense that isn’t last years’ will put us in position to win some games. This is one of them.

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: North Carolina

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The next team up: North Carolina.  We are going with an over/under of 7.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 3 vs South Carolina (Charlotte, NC)
  2. September 12 vs North Carolina A&T
  3. September 19 vs Illinois
  4. September 26 vs Delaware
  5. October 3 @ Georgia Tech
  6. October 17 vs Wake Forest
  7. October 24 vs Virginia
  8. October 29 @ Pittsburgh
  9. November 7 vs Duke
  10. November 14 vs Miami
  11. November 21 @ Virginia Tech
  12. November 28 @ NC State

Likely losses: South Carolina, @Georgia Tech

Likely wins: NC A&T, Delaware, Wake Forest, Illinois or NC State

Summary:  Like Boston College, North Carolina has two games against FCS opponents–North Carolina A&T and Delaware.  In addition, UNC also plays all but one of its first seven games in the state of North Carolina and 9 overall in the state.  Make no mistake, South Carolina will be tough, and Illinois is no pushover despite its recent futility.  Still, with a Coastal slate and Atlantic games against Wake Forest and NC State, North Carolina has a path to the ACC Championship Game.  That being said, the Confidential does not expect same.  Ultimately, the Confidential goes with an over-under of 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State Duke Boston College

Lindsay, Jones exit – MLB draft kind to Diamond Heels

This time last year, coach Mike Fox and the Diamond Heels were reeling after losing 10 commits to the 2014 MLB draft which showed up significantly (in a bad way) in both the regular season and ACC tournament in the form of pitching. After losing many talented freshman, there just seemed to not be enough manpower in that particular area to sustain momentum down the stretch. This ultimately led to the Heels missing taking part in the NCAAT for the first time since 2001.

Even though the top 2 recruits the Diamond Heels had signed ended up being drafted, the class is still loaded and with some much needed relief in the form of pitchers. One of those pitching commits (two total) ranks in the Top 75 nationally.

The in-state class is led by 2nd ranked RHP and 10th ranked player overall in the state of North Carolina- Cole Aker and will be looked at to help add stability at the mound similar to what they enjoyed back in 2014.

I’ll have a breakdown of the entire recruiting class this summer along with the other UNC teams as we gear up for the new season.

Hello Confidential!

I’d just like to introduce myself since I’ve now officially joined The Confidential as a contributor from a North Carolina Tar Heels perspective.

Over the past two years I’ve been handling the unc_tarheelfan Twitter handle and every now and then I’ve found 140 characters just isn’t enough. Nor is tweeting out an entire paragraph of information in broken tweets. I looked at many alternatives that would work in correlation with that handle and decided that becoming a blog contributor would serve both myself and the blog community. I’m grateful to have had an invitation extended and I look forward to covering North Carolina athletics and the entire ACC community for and with you in the months ahead.

Long live the ACC!


Editor’s Note: Welcome to the team Julius! 


The Confidential’s All School Teams Poll: Ranking The Top

UPDATE: Final Voting in Poll:

  1. North Carolina 41.03%
  2. Louisville 36.32%
  3. Syracuse 16.24%
  4. Duke 3.47%
  5. NC State 1.28%
  6. Ga Tech and ND .85%

Thanks to all for voting!  Congrats to the Tar Heels and their fans!

The Confidential has spent several weeks determining the best 12-player teams that could be put together for each ACC school.  Here is a list of those teams.  Yesterday’s task was to determine which school’s team is the worst.  Today’s task is to determine which school has the best team!


Center: Christian Laettner, Mike Gminski

Power Forward: Shane Battier, Danny Ferry

Small Forward:  Grant Hill, Art Heyman

Shooting Guard: JJ Reddick, Johnny Dawkins, Dick Groat

Point Guard: Bobby Hurley, Jason Williams, Tommy Amaker

Georgia Tech:

Center: John Salley, Matt Geiger

Power Forward: Malcolm Mackey, Rich Yunkus

Small Forward: Dennis Scott, Matt Harping

Shooting Guard: Stephon Marbury, Tom Hammonds, Roger Kaiser

Point Guard: Mark Price, Kenny Anderson, Jarrett Jack


Center: Wes Unseld, Pervis Ellison

Power Forward: Rodney McCray, Charlie Tyra

Small Forward: Derek Smith, Junior Bridgeman

Shooting Guard: Darrell Griffith, Butch Beard, Peyton Siva

Point Guard: Milt Wagner, DeJuan Wheat, Russ Smith

North Carolina:

Center: Tyler Hansbrough, Bob McAdoo

Power Forward: James Worthy, Sam Perkins

Small Forward: Lennie Rosenbluth, Billy Cunningham, Antawn Jamison

Shooting Guard: Michael Jordan, Walter Davis, Charlie Scott

Point Guard: Phil Ford, Kenny Smith

North Carolina State:

Center: Tom Burleson, Ronnie Shavlik

Power Forward: David Thompson, Tom Guggliota, Thurl Bailey

Small Forward: Lorenzo Charles, TJ Warren

Shooting Guard: Derek Whittenburg, Julius Hodge

Point Guard: Sidney Lowe, Chris Corchani, Monty Towe

Notre Dame:

Center: Bill Laimbeer, Troy Murphy

Power Forward: Tom Hawkins, Pat Garrity, John Shumate

Small Forward: Adrian Dantley, Orlando Woolidge, Kelly Tripucka

Shooting Guard: Austin Carr, John Paxson

Point Guard: David Rivers, Chris Thomas


Center:  Rony Seikaly, Roosevelt Bouie

Power Forward: Derrick Coleman, Louis Orr

Small Forward: Carmelo Anthony, John Wallace, Rafael Addison

Shooting Guard: Dave Bing, Lawrence Moten, Gerry McNamara

Point Guard: Pearl Washington, Sherman Douglas

The Confidential’s All-Time North Carolina Team

Suppose you had to play one game… for all the marbles… and you could use your time machine (or TARDIS) to put together a team of 12 players at their peaks.  Who would you pick?  Well, the Confidential does not know who YOU would pick.  But here is who the Confidential would pick for North Carolina:

Read more…

Thoughts on Syracuse – North Carolina

If you read the final score, you will see that North Carolina won comfortably over Syracuse last night.  If you watched the game, you saw that it was anything but comfortable, as Syracuse lead for large parts of the game and played quite well.  To be sure, North Carolina was careless with the ball–but that is not uncommon for teams that rarely see the aggressive 2-3 zone.  In many ways, this game was a positive for Syracuse, as it showed it can fully compete with top 15 teams.  I know I am more positive than before.  Still… a few nagging things to note.

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The Duke-North Carolina Rivalry…Middle School Fiction?

Duke-North Carolina. Two schools, eight miles apart. It’s been called the Greatest Rivalry Ever. It’s basketball, it’s football. It’s even lacrosse. But is it…middle school fiction? You’ve probably been wondering where I’ve been the past few weeks. With the release of the Wainstein Report, most North Carolina fans have been either hiding in shame, or vocally sharing their anger. I’ve been doing neither. I’ve been writing a book.

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The Tar Heel Football Gauntlet- One Week In

Last week, we looked at North Carolina Football’s difficult four-game stretch and examined some of the statistics and intangibles they held that may or may not be good indicators of future success. While there were some bold predictions and unlikely scenarios presented, it all seemed semi-plausible until East Carolina completely dismantled the Tar Heels on the way to a 70-41 victory last Saturday. In a record-setting performance, the dynamic Pirates offense, led by quarterback Shane Carden, totaled 789 yards of offense. With an 0-1 record  one week into the gauntlet, and a 2-1 record overall, it’s important to take last week’s performance into account when looking at North Carolina’s next three games. For the sake of some hope of predictability, we’ll just look at the most immediate game, Saturday AT Clemson, for now.

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