The Football Over-Unders for 2015: Florida State
This article is the first in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015. We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.” We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under. If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too. The first team up: Florida State. We are going with an over/under of 10.5 regular season wins.
- September 5 vs. Texas State
- September 12 vs. South Florida
- September 18 @ Boston College
- October 3 @ Wake Forest
- October 10 vs. Miami
- October 17 vs. Louisville
- October 24 @ Georgia Tech
- October 31 vs. Syracuse
- November 7 @ Clemson
- November 14 vs. NC State
- November 21 vs. Chattanooga
- November 28 @ Florida
Summary: Florida State is hard this year. This team could go 12-0 and nobody would be shocked. However, after losing Winston and a second-straight set of studs to the NFL, the Seminoles are bound to take a step back. Whether that is a step back to 11 wins or 8 wins is anybody’s guess. Look, Wake Forest upset them a few years back. Boston College has played them tough recently. Syracuse and North Carolina State hung on for way too long last year. With road games at Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Florida–as well as tough home games against Miami and Louisville, the Confidential sees one or two losses. And if that is a rebuilding year, then Jimbo Fisher is doing a great job in Tallahassee. The Confidential goes with an over/under of 10.5 for the Seminoles.
What do you think? Over or under? Let us know.
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FSU will def be going below 10.5 in wins. Honestly I can see my Noles dropping as many as 6 games, and it would be great if it was only 2 during the regular season. First, it is not just Winston we lost, but 3 strait drafts of NFL talent (we now hold the record for the most players drafted in a 3 year run). Second, in some ways our schedule is harder. Yes we are taking on easier non-conf opponents, but the ones we played last year were unexpectedly worse. Also, this year we have a many tough road games (Clemson, GT, BC, and UF).
Here is my % chance of FSU winning in each game;
September 5 vs. Texas State: 95% (Although first game w/ new qb, so who knows)
September 12 vs. South Florida: 85% (USF has recruited well, could be a big jump up yr)
September 18 @ Boston College: 51% (BC has played FSU better than any other ACC team for 2 years, when FSU was really good, and this game is a road WeekNight game -Friday- which are always dangerous for FSU)
October 3 @ Wake Forest: 75% (Should be a win, but FSU has its troubles at Wake)
October 10 vs. Miami: 51% (about the same team played FSU to the brink last year, and plays FSU well on the road)
October 17 vs. Louisville: 55% (played us well last year, and Petrino gets a whole lot out of his team after his first year usually)
October 24 @ Georgia Tech: 40% (Similar team took us to the limit a year ago, and this game is in Atlanta in late October… upset time of the year).
October 31 vs. Syracuse: 80% (Should be a win… but you never know)
November 7 @ Clemson: 20% (Yeah chalk this up as a loss, CU will be good and its at Death Valley)
November 14 vs. NC State: 50% (Originally I was not worried, but the more I look at this game the more I see a loss, they have a whole lot coming back and they almost got us a year ago)
November 21 vs. Chattanooga: 99.9% (Yeah this should be a win)
November 28 @ Florida: 49% (At the swamp, where we always struggle… it would be worse odds if UF had a good team going into the season)
So we have 2 likely losses in GT and CU. 5 Coin FLip games in BC, NCSU, UF, UM, and UL. We also have 3 games where if FSU utterly implodes and the opponent plays the game of their lives, FSU could suffer a major upset in USF, Syracuse, and Wake. So lets call it 4 losses
Wow, Brian. You forget that FSU redshirted players that would have started for BC, Wake Forest, and Syracuse last year. The size and speed of FSU is simply overwhelming. I think the downside for FSU is 8-4, but 10 is very doable. Fisher is no fool.
I agree about FSU’s talent, but also their schedule is not that difficult. They could rest their starters and still get to 6 wins (Texas St., USF, WtF, Syracuse, NCSt., Chattanooga), and should win against teams that can play them tough for 3 quarters (BC, Miami, GaTech).
The biggest challenges come from Clemson and L’Ville.
As for Florida, they have a new coach and they should be much improved from last year, but I don’t think they’ll be able to beat FSU.
There is nothing that tells me that FSU cannot go undefeated next year, but I don’t see them losing more than 1 game.
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Wow I watch this team pretty closely, and I just don’t see a team better than 10-2… at most. I think 8-4 is to be expected, and maybe 9-3 if we play fairly well. 10-2 if things go really well. This team is very young, and reminds me of the the 2011 team in some ways. If you go back to that season it was a young but very talented squad. Everyone had them going 11-1 or 12-0 during the regular season. They played the sooners at home and lost, and things spiraled down hill fast. Losses to Clemson, Wake, and then UVA. Young teams like this, no matter how talented, tend to have weird games they lose. Yeah 2011 had injuries, but even with those injuries they should have beaten Wake and UVA. A major issue that season was stupid mistakes. I see BC, NCSU, Louisville, UF, and UM all like those 2011 games FSU lost. FSU on paper has the talent, but do they have the experience, not sure about that. GT and CU will be tough tough road games. That’s how I get to 4 losses or more.
Also, NCSU is a dark-horse this year for the ACC. Watch out for them on offense… defense could use some work. Honestly this is the most wide open the ACC has been since 2011, probably even since 2008. I can see any of these teams going on a run: GT, NCSU, CU, FSU, VT, UNC, Pitt, and UM. I think Duke takes a step back. Louisville will be rebuilding a bit, but they wont be bad. My prediction is CU will play well enough to win 12 games, but it will have to tough it out like last years Noles (many close calls). Although, every time I think CU is about to be great… they aren’t lol so who knows.
I meant they do not have the experience in paragraph 1.
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