The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the category “Over/Under”

27 Nov 2016

The Confidential’s ACC Football Over-Unders: Recap.

Every year, the Confidential does over-unders for each ACC school, based solely on the regular season.  In 2014, we had 6 schools correctly pegged within 1/2 a win of their ultimate totals.  In 2015, we improved to 7 schools correctly pegged within a 1/2 a win of their ultimate total.  And now it is on to 2016.  Remember, these are regular season wins only.  No bowl games or playoffs.  Here is the final tally of the Confidential’s over-unders for 2016, as well as the final results/analysis:

Clemson: 11.5 wins.  CORRECT!  At 11-1, Clemson ended up within 1/2 a win of the Confidential’s projection.  And Clemson certainly could have beaten Pitt.  Of course, Clemson should have lost to NC State, Troy, or both.  It is what it is.

Notre Dame: 10.5 wins.  WOEFULLY INCORRECT.  At 4-8, Notre Dame blew a season with a weak schedule.  They lost to Texas (who fired its coach), Michigan State (down season), and Duke (down season), among others.  Just a horrible, terrible season.

Florida State: 9.5 wins.  CORRECT!  At 9-3, Florida State fell a bit short of the under, but this was always setting up to be a tough season for the Seminoles.  They did fine overall.

Miami: 8.5 wins.  CORRECT!  A streaky season for the Hurricanes, with blocks of 4 wins surrounding a block of four losses.

North Carolina: 8.5 wins.  CORRECT!  UNC fell one game short of its win total, like several of the above teams.  In fact, the ACC ended up fairly down by the end of the year.  However, it it was a decent OOC season and the ACC teams fared well in their SEC rivalry games (3-1) again.

Louisville: 7.5 wins.  INCORRECT!  Many folks criticized this one and perhaps deservedly so.  But Louisville losing to Kentucky should silence Cards fans for a while.

Virginia Tech: 7.5 wins.  INCORRECT!  Like Louisville, the Hokies did much better than expected at 9-3.

Pitt: 7.5 wins.   CORRECT!  Despite the difficult schedule, Pitt fared well at 8-4, including the sole win over Clemson so far.

Duke: 6.5 wins.  INCORRECT!   Duke finished at 4-8, well short of the estimated over-under.

North Carolina State: 5.5 wins.   CORRECT!  This one was correct heading into the surprise  victory over UNC, which pushed NC State into the “over” category.

Georgia Tech: 5.5 wins.  INCORRECT.  The Yellow Jackets did much better than expected with an 8-4 regular season.

Virginia: 5.5 wins.  INCORRECT!  Virginia only managed 2 wins.  On to 2017.

Boston College: 5.5 wins.  CORRECT!  BC had an easy OOC schedule and fared well.  Wins over NC State and Wake Forest gave the Eagles the “over.”

Syracuse: 4.5 wins.  CORRECT!  Losing to USF, Wake Forest, and NC State meant that Syracuse could not get the over, despite the Virginia Tech upset.

Wake Forest: 3.5 wins.  INCORRECT!  At 6-wins, the Demon Deacons went way over and are going bowling!

PRESEASON ANALYSIS: By far, the most controversial selection was Louisville at only 7.5 wins.  However, with road trips to Syracuse, Marshall, Virginia, Boston College, and Houston–it is asking a lot of the Cardinals to avoid tripping up against three of its four easiest conference games and two challenging OOC games.  Meanwhile, Florida State and Clemson remain on the schedule.  Notre Dame at 10.5 wins surprised some folks too, but look at who the Fighting Irish play and where.  In any event, it is what it is.  The Coastal, of course, is a mess.  Would any team winning it be a true surprise?  Meanwhile, the Atlantic has NC State, Boston College, Syracuse, and Wake Forest in a perpetual battle to avoid the cellar, it seems.

POSTSEASON ANALYSIS: Well, the Confidential edged up to 8 teams picked correctly (within 1/2 game of their final win total).  ND and Duke were the biggest disappointments (along with Virginia), while Wake Forest, Va Tech, Louisville, and Georgia Tech all did better than expected.  Louisville ended up handling its difficult road games, except Houston.  And they almost nipped Clemson.  Anyway, it is an improvement for the Confidential!

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Opinion, Over/Under and tagged , , , , ,
16 Aug 2016
1 Comment

The Confidential’s ACC Football Over-Unders

Every year, the Confidential does over-unders for each ACC school, based solely on the regular season.  In 2014, we had 6 schools correctly pegged within 1/2 a win of their ultimate totals.  In 2015, we improved to 7 schools correctly pegged within a 1/2 a win of their ultimate total.  And now it is on to 2016.  Remember, these are regular season wins only.  No bowl games or playoffs.  Here is the final tally of the Confidential’s over-unders for 2016:

Clemson: 11.5 wins

Notre Dame: 10.5 wins

Florida State: 9.5 wins

Miami: 8.5 wins

North Carolina: 8.5 wins

Louisville: 7.5 wins

Virginia Tech: 7.5 wins

Pitt: 7.5 wins

Duke: 6.5 wins

North Carolina State: 5.5 wins

Georgia Tech: 5.5 wins

Virginia: 5.5 wins

Boston College: 5.5 wins

Syracuse: 4.5 wins

Wake Forest: 3.5 wins

By far, the most controversial selection was Louisville at only 7.5 wins.  However, with road trips to Syracuse, Marshall, Virginia, Boston College, and Houston–it is asking a lot of the Cardinals to avoid tripping up against three of its four easiest conference games and two challenging OOC games.  Meanwhile, Florida State and Clemson remain on the schedule.  Notre Dame at 10.5 wins surprised some folks too, but look at who the Fighting Irish play and where.  In any event, it is what it is.  The Coastal, of course, is a mess.  Would any team winning it be a true surprise?  Meanwhile, the Atlantic has NC State, Boston College, Syracuse, and Wake Forest in a perpetual battle to avoid the cellar, it seems.

What do you think?  Would you raise Louisville and Florida State?  Lower Notre Dame or Clemson?  How many over-unders do you think will end up within 1 game (i.e. 5.5 wins resulting in 5 or 6 wins)?

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Opinion, Over/Under and tagged , , , ,
16 Aug 2016
1 Comment

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Clemson

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Clemson, the over-under was set at 10 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Tigers had an awesome season, going 12-0 (ultimately 14-1).  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Clemson at 11.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/3 Sat @ Auburn
9/10 Sat vs. Troy
9/17 Sat vs. South Carolina State
9/22 Thu @ *Georgia Tech
10/1 Sat vs. *Louisville
10/7 Fri @ *Boston College
10/15 Sat vs. *North Carolina State
10/29 Sat @ *Florida State
11/5 Sat vs. *Syracuse
11/12 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
11/19 Sat @ *Wake Forest
11/26 Sat vs. South Carolina

Very likely wins: Troy, South Carolina State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Boston College, NC State, Syracuse, Pitt, Wake Forest, South Carolina

Very likely losses: None

Verdict: Clemson is the best team in the A.C.C. unless the prove otherwise.  With a Heisman candidate at QB and an experienced team at many positions, how can anyone be confident that Clemson will not run the table again?  Well, upsets happen in college football.  Pretty much every year.  So Clemson could be upset by someone.  Still, the only games with realistic potential for non-upset losses are Auburn to begin the season and Florida State, neither of which are home games.  Better teams have stumbled with less difficult schedules.  So, while Clemson and ACC fans may be rooting for Clemson to go undefeated, it will be difficult.  Still, the Confidential will set the over-under for the loaded Tigers at 11.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Clemson go over or under 11.5 regular season wins?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
15 Aug 2016
1 Comment

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Duke

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Duke, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Blue Devils racked up 7 regular season wins, adding a bowl victory over Indiana to conclude the season.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Duke at 6.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/3 Sat vs. North Carolina Central
9/10 Sat vs. *Wake Forest
9/17 Sat @ Northwestern
9/24 Sat @ Notre Dame
10/1 Sat vs. *Virginia
10/8 Sat vs. Army
10/14 Fri @ *Louisville
10/29 Sat @ *Georgia Tech
11/5 Sat vs. *Virginia Tech
11/10 Thu vs. *North Carolina
11/19 Sat @ *Pittsburgh
11/26 Sat @ *Miami (Florida)

Very likely wins: North Carolina Central, Wake Forest, Virginia, Army

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, Northwestern

Verdict: Duke followed up a few good seasons with an 8-win season to keep momentum going.  This year, Duke has a rough two-game stretch in Chicagoland against Notre Dame and Northwestern.  Beyond that, North Carolina Central and Army should be wins.  The conference schedule features a tough trip to Louisville, as well as a home game against Wake Forest.  Thus, it will all come down to the Coastal games.  It is not hard to see Duke match last year’s win total.  However, Duke’s specific slate is somewhat tough, with trips to Louisville, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, and Miami.  In contrast, the home game slate is North Carolina (local anyway), Wake Forest (other North Carolina foe), Virginia, and Virginia Tech.  With a tough schedule, not going to project improvement.  In fact, the Confidential goes with 6.5 regular season wins.

What do you think?  Will Duke go over or under 6.5 regular season wins?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
12 Aug 2016
1 Comment

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Georgia Tech

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Georgia Tech, the over-under was set at 8.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Yellow Jackets struggled mightily, ending up with just 3 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Georgia Tech at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/3 Sat @ *Boston College
9/10 Sat vs. Mercer
9/17 Sat vs. Vanderbilt
9/22 Thu vs. *Clemson
10/1 Sat vs. *Miami (Florida)
10/8 Sat @ *Pittsburgh
10/15 Sat vs. Georgia Southern
10/29 Sat vs. *Duke
11/5 Sat @ *North Carolina
11/12 Sat @ *Virginia Tech
11/19 Sat vs. *Virginia
11/26 Sat @ Georgia

Very likely wins: Mercer, Georgia Southern, Virginia

Very likely losses: Clemson, Georgia

Verdict: Georgia Tech struggled badly last year.  Despite beating Florida State somehow, the Yellow Jackets were unable to do much of anything else.  Perhaps Paul Johnson is even on the hot seat.  In looking for very likely wins, it was a stretch.  Even Georgia Southern could pull the upset.  But the odds are that Georgia Tech will do better.  Law of averages.  Plus, a bowl game is far from unrealistic, with potential wins over Boston College, Mercer, Vanderbilt, Georgia Southern, Virginia and Duke at home.  Will that happen?  Maybe, maybe not.  We’ll set the over/under at 5.5 regular season wins.

What do you think?  Will Georgia Tech go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
11 Aug 2016
1 Comment

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Wake Forest

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Wake Forest, the over-under was set at 3.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Demon Deacons ended up with 3 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Wake Forest at 3.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/1 Thu vs. Tulane
9/10 Sat @ *Duke
9/17 Sat vs. Delaware
9/24 Sat @ Indiana
10/1 Sat @ *North Carolina State
10/8 Sat vs. *Syracuse
10/15 Sat @ *Florida State
10/29 Sat vs. Army
11/5 Sat vs. *Virginia
11/12 Sat @ *Louisville
11/19 Sat vs. *Clemson
11/26 Sat vs. *Boston College

Very likely wins: Tulane, Delaware, Army

Very likely losses: Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, @ Duke

Verdict: Wake Forest is in a tough position.  In a conference with Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville, they are battling with Syracuse, Boston College, and North Carolina State for relevance.  This year’s crossover games are Virginia and Duke.  The out-of-conference schedule is not too daunting, with Army, Indiana, Tulane, and Delaware.  While that may lend itself to three wins, that is about it. And don’t sleep on Tulane under its new coach.  All in all, there are six “toss-up” games for the Demon Deacons.  Wake Forest has a decent chance to beat Boston College or Syracuse at home.  Heck, Wake Forest could beat both and Indiana or Virginia to go bowling.  But we’ll need to see improvement over last first.  The Wake Forest over-under is set at 3.5.

What do you think?  Will Wake Forest go over or under 3.5 regular season wins?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
08 Aug 2016
1 Comment

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: North Carolina

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For North Carolina, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Tar Heels ended up with 11 regular season wins, sweeping the regular season after a disappointing loss to an underwhelming South Carolina team in Week 1.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for North Carolina at 8.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/3 Sat @ Georgia
9/10 Sat @ Illinois
9/17 Sat vs. James Madison
9/24 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
10/1 Sat @ *Florida State
10/8 Sat vs. *Virginia Tech
10/15 Sat @ *Miami (Florida)
10/22 Sat @ *Virginia
11/5 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech
11/10 Thu @ *Duke
11/19 Sat vs. Citadel
11/25 Fri vs. *North Carolina State

Very likely wins: James Madison, Citadel

Very likely losses: @ Georgia, @ Florida State

Verdict: Last year was a great year for North Carolina, with a final record of 11-3.  The 11-straight regular season wins was substantially impressive and the one regular season loss to South Carolina was in Game 1.  This year, North Carolina starts with an even more difficult SEC foe–Georgia.  Then, Illinois on the road.  Should be a win, but a Big 10 school at home is hard to characterize as a “very likely” win, regardless of the talent.  Despite the talent in Chapel Hill, it is hard to find “very likely” wins on a schedule that has many wins that would not be surprising, but just not enough certainty to be even surprised by a loss.  Virginia and Duke are on the road.  Who knows what Miami and Virginia Tech will be under new coaches?  All in all, the Confidential just does not see North Carolina doing nearly as well as last year.  That means an over-under of 8.5 regular season wins.

What do you think?  Will North Carolina go over or under 8.5 regular season wins?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
07 Aug 2016

Keeping Up With the Over-Unders

Every year, the Confidential does over-unders for each ACC school, based solely on the regular season.  In 2014, we had 6 schools correctly pegged within 1/2 a win of their ultimate totals.  In 2015, we improved to 7 schools correctly pegged within a 1/2 a win of their ultimate total.  And now it is on to 2016.  Here is a running look at the Confidential’s over-unders for 2016:

Notre Dame: 10.5 wins

Florida State: 9.5 wins

Miami: 8.5 wins

Louisville: 7.5 wins

Virginia Tech: 7.5 wins

Pitt: 7.5 wins

North Carolina State: 5.5 wins

Virginia: 5.5 wins

Boston College: 5.5 wins

Syracuse: 4.5 wins

By far, the most controversial selection was Louisville at only 7.5 wins.  However, with road trips to Syracuse, Marshall, Virginia, Boston College, and Houston–it is asking a lot of the Cardinals to avoid tripping up against three of its four easiest conference games and two challenging OOC games.  Meanwhile, Florida State and Clemson remain on the schedule.  Notre Dame at 10.5 wins surprised some folks too, but look at who the Fighting Irish play and where.  In any event, it is what it is.

Still to come: Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina, Wake Forest

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Opinion, Over/Under and tagged , , , ,
07 Aug 2016
2 Comments

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: North Carolina State

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For North Carolina State, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, NC State ended up with 7 regular season wins, bolstered by four easy out-of-conference games scheduled.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for NC State at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/1 Thu vs. William & Mary
9/10 Sat @ East Carolina
9/17 Sat vs. Old Dominion
10/1 Sat vs. *Wake Forest
10/8 Sat vs. Notre Dame
10/15 Sat @ *Clemson
10/22 Sat @ *Louisville
10/29 Sat vs. *Boston College
11/5 Sat vs. *Florida State
11/12 Sat @ *Syracuse
11/19 Sat vs. *Miami (Florida)
11/25 Fri @ *North Carolina

Very likely wins: William & Mary, Old Dominion, one of Boston College or Wake Forest

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, @ Clemson, Florida State

Verdict: Last year’s out-of-conference schedule for North Carolina State was pathetically easy.  This year, there is a slight uptick.  Of course, with the forced game against Notre Dame, it was the ACC, rather than the school, making the change.  At the same time, East Carolina will be a self-inflicted challenge.  Ask Virginia Tech.  So this is a definite increase in scheduling difficulty.  Within the conference, the Wolfpack have it very tough also, with road trips to North Carolina, Syracuse, and Louisville within the toss-up games.  With only six toss-ups, and three very likely losses, it is not hard to see NC State taking a step back from its 7 win season.  In fact, this much tougher schedule could mean a few steps back, including potentially missing a bowl.  The Confidential goes with an over-under at that mark–5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will NC State go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,
02 Aug 2016
2 Comments

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Virginia

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Virginia, the over-under was set at 4.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Virginia ended up with 4 regular season wins, under an already-low number and enough to lead to a coaching change.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Virginia at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/3 Sat vs. Richmond
9/10 Sat @ Oregon
9/17 Sat @ Connecticut
9/24 Sat vs. Central Michigan
10/1 Sat @ *Duke
10/15 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
10/22 Sat vs. *North Carolina
10/29 Sat vs. *Louisville
11/5 Sat @ *Wake Forest
11/12 Sat vs. *Miami (Florida)
11/19 Sat @ *Georgia Tech
11/26 Sat @ *Virginia Tech

Very likely wins: Richmond, Central Michigan

Very likely losses: @ Oregon, @ Virginia Tech

Verdict: Virginia has an interesting schedule.  Avoiding Clemson, Florida State, and Notre Dame makes it softish in-conference.  Trips to Connecticut and Wake Forest make those games less winnable.  Hosting Pitt, UNC, Miami, and Louisville makes those games less automatically losable.  Trips to Duke, Georgia Tech, and Virginia Tech will, or at least should be, very tough.  All in all, it is not hard to see Virginia winning anywhere from 3 to 8 games.  Still, it is tough to envision Virginia being likely to come out on the high side of that range.  So the Confidential will go with an over-under of 5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Virginia go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Over/Under, Schedule and tagged , , ,

Post Navigation

← Older Entries
%d bloggers like this: