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The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Virginia Tech

Happy Independence Day!  Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school. For Virginia Tech, the over-under was set at 6.5 regular season wins. Ultimately, Frank Beamer’s last season resulted in 6 wins (under) and a bowl win, allowing him to go out on a great streak of 23 straight bowl appearances.  But now it is on to 2016 and a new coach. The Confidential sets the over-under for Va Tech at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great college football website:

9/3 Sat vs. Liberty
9/10 Sat @ Tennessee
9/17 Sat vs. *Boston College
9/24 Sat vs. East Carolina
10/8 Sat @ *North Carolina
10/15 Sat @ *Syracuse
10/20 Thu vs. *Miami (Florida)
10/27 Thu @ *Pittsburgh
11/5 Sat @ *Duke
11/12 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech
11/19 Sat @ Notre Dame
11/26 Sat vs. *Virginia

Very likely wins: Liberty, Boston College, Syracuse, Virginia

Very likely losses: Notre Dame

Verdict: Like Miami, it is hard to know whether a new coach will take a step back or step forward.  Or neither.  Virginia Tech lost a legend, make no mistake.  In the end, every game is winnable, while upsets of the Hokies are certainly possible as well.  Tennessee will be a huge test, as the Volunteers should be a very good squad.  At the same time, East Carolina always plays the Hokies tough.  There are few guarantees.  The Confidential sets the over-under at 7.5 wins.

What do you think? Will BC go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Boston College

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Boston College, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, B.C. started out by out-scoring its opponents 100-3, and held tight with Florida State until suffering a QB injury.  After beating Northern Illinois, the Eagles would lose out.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Boston College at 5.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great college football website:

9/3 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech
9/10 Sat vs. Massachusetts @ Foxboro, MA
9/17 Sat @ *Virginia Tech
9/24 Sat vs. Wagner
10/1 Sat vs. Buffalo
10/7 Fri vs. *Clemson
10/22 Sat vs. *Syracuse
10/29 Sat @ *North Carolina State
11/5 Sat vs. *Louisville
11/11 Fri @ *Florida State
11/19 Sat vs. Connecticut
11/26 Sat @ *Wake Forest

Very likely wins: UMass, Wagner, Buffalo, UConn (wow, weak OOC schedule this year for the Eagles)

Very likely losses: FSU, Clemson, @ Virginia Tech

Verdict: Unlike Syracuse, Boston College appears to be eschewing the over-scheduling curse.  Gone is Southern Cal–enter a Mac-tastic opponent in Buffalo, local foes UConn and UMass, and an FCS-tilt against Wagner.  This is a legitimate chance at 4 wins.  The conference slate it typically tough, with trips to Wake Forest and NC State making things a challenge.  But if B.C. can upset Georgia Tech week one at home, the Eagles will be well-positioned to go 2-6 in conference, yet find themselves a bowl bid even without a single upset.  This is what a rebuilding program MUST DO to regain relevance.  The Confidential sets the over-under at 5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will BC go over or under 5.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Miami

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Miami, the over-under was set at 6.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Miami ended up with 8 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Miami at 8.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great college football website:

9/3 Sat vs. Florida A&M
9/10 Sat vs. Florida Atlantic
9/17 Sat @ Appalachian State
10/1 Sat @ *Georgia Tech
10/8 Sat vs. *Florida State
10/15 Sat vs. *North Carolina
10/20 Thu @ *Virginia Tech
10/29 Sat @ Notre Dame
11/5 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
11/12 Sat @ *Virginia
11/19 Sat @ *North Carolina State
11/26 Sat vs. *Duke

Very likely wins: Florida Atlantic, @ App State

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, Florida State

Verdict: Miami had a good season last year relative to outsider expectations, but it was not enough to save Al Golden’s job.  Moreover, the team seemed to improve without him.  Enter the Mark Richt era.  Some new coaches immediately improve teams, others take a season to adjust.  Who knows with Miami?  It is difficult to see many “very likely wins,” as even a trip to Appalachian State can be dangerous.  The lighter conference foes on the schedule (Virginia, NC State, Georgia Tech) are all road games.  But there is not a game on the schedule that cannot be won–even FSU and Notre Dame–either.  This becomes a crap shoot.  Improvement is expected, but it might not yet result in more wins.  Or it might.  The Confidential goes with an over-under of 8.5 regular season wins.

What do you think?  Will Pitt go over or under 8.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Syracuse

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Syracuse, the over-under was set at 5.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Orange fell short of that, resulting in a coaching change.  This year, there is optimism with a new coaching staff and scheme–but concern regarding the defense and the ordinarily challenging OOC schedule.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Syracuse at 4.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/2/16: Colgate
  • 9/9/16: Louisville
  • 9/17/16: South Florida
  • 9/24/16: @ UConn
  • 10/1/16: Notre Dame (neutral site)
  • 10/8/16: @ Wake Forest
  • 10/15/16: Virginia Tech
  • 10/22/16: @ Boston College
  • 11/5/16: @ Clemson
  • 11/12/16: NC State
  • 11/19/16: Florida State
  • 11/26/16: @ Pitt

Very likely wins: Colgate, UConn

Very likely losses: Notre Dame, Clemson, Florida State, Pitt

Verdict: Syracuse has struggled to beat Pitt on the road (since 2001) and is a long shot to beat Notre Dame, Clemson, or Florida State.  Still, it is not hard to believe that the team cannot find a few wins among USF, Wake Forest, Boston College, and North Carolina State.  Also, look for Dino Babers’ squad to pull at least one mild upset–perhaps Louisville or Virginia Tech.  A bowl game may be a year away though.  The Confidential sets the over-under at 4.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Syracuse go over or under 4.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Pitt

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Pitt, the over-under was set at 6.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Pitt ended up with 8 regular season wins.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Pitt at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/3/16: Villanova
  • 9/10/16: Penn State
  • 9/17/16: @ Oklahoma State
  • 9/24/16: @ North Carolina
  • 10/1/16: Marshall
  • 10/8/16: Georgia Tech
  • 10/15/16: @ Virginia
  • 10/27/16: Virginia Tech
  • 11/5/16: @ Miami
  • 11/12/16: @ Clemson
  • 11/19/16: Duke
  • 11/26/16: Syracuse

Very likely wins: Villanova, Marshall, Syracuse

Very likely losses: @ Oklahoma State, @ Clemson

Verdict: Pitt had a very good season last year, but the schedule is tougher in 2016.  Villanova will be a feisty FCS opponent (ask Syracuse), while Penn State returns to the schedule the following week creating a chance for a “look ahead” situation.  But you have to beat your FCS opponent and your non-P5 opponent (Marshall).  Meanwhile, Syracuse has not beaten Pitt in Pitt since… 2001… so that’s three wins.  Road trips to Oklahoma State and Clemson should be losses.  That leaves 7 middle-ground games.  Trips to Virginia, Miami,and North Carolina are far from certain losses, obviously.  Home games against Duke, Virginia Tech, and Georgia Tech are all winnable, obviously.  Would losses in any of them be shocking though?  Nope.  With a tough OOC, we’ll leave Pitt where it was last year–straddling the 7-8 win mark.

What do you think?  Will Pitt go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Notre Dame

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Notre Dame, the over-under was set at 9.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Fighting Irish ended up with 10 regular season wins, with losses at Clemson and Stanford being the only regular season blemishes.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Notre Dame at 10.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/4/16: @ Texas
  • 9/10/16: Nevada
  • 9/17/16: Michigan State
  • 9/24/16: Duke
  • 10/1/16: Syracuse (neutral site)
  • 10/8/16: @ NC State
  • 10/15/16: Stanford
  • 10/29/16: Miami
  • 11/5/16: Army
  • 11/12/16: Navy
  • 11/19/16: Virginia Tech
  • 11/26/16: @ USC

Very likely wins: Nevada, Syracuse, @ NC State, Army, Navy

Very likely losses: Texas or USC

Verdict: Wow… pretty rare to see a football schedule with only three road games.  The neutral site game against Syracuse will likely be a de facto home game.  How can Notre Dame not have a great season?   Well, do not sleep on Michigan State, Duke, Miami, and Va Tech.  And Stanford is always a potential loss.  Meanwhile, one of Texas or USC–elite programs struggling recently–can pull off a home win over Notre Dame.  Still, this is a very favorable schedule.  The over/under, therefore, is set at 10.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Notre Dame go over or under 10.5 regular season wins?

The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: Louisville

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For Louisville, the over-under was set at 9.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, Louisville ended up with 7 regular season wins, with the losses to Houston and Pittsburgh being relative “surprises.”  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for Louisville at 7.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016:

  • 9/1/16: Charlotte
  • 9/9/16: @ Syracuse
  • 9/17/16: Florida State
  • 9/24/16: @ Marshall
  • 10/1/16: @ Clemson
  • 10/14/16: Duke
  • 10/22/16: NC State
  • 10/29/16: @ Virginia
  • 11/5/16: @ Boston College
  • 11/12/16: Wake Forest
  • 11/17/16: @ Houston
  • 11/26/16: Kentucky

Very likely wins: Charlotte, Wake Forest, Kentucky

Very likely losses: Florida State, @ Clemson

Verdict: With OOC trips to Marshall and Houston, Louisville has scheduled outside of the P5 conferences, but challenged itself significantly.  Throw in trips to Syracuse, Boston College, and Virginia, and three “very likely home wins” become three very challenging road conference games.  Duke and NC State will not be pushovers from the home slate either.  A sweep of all seven of those games is not impossible, but realistically not likely either.  In fact, it is certainly plausible for two or three of those games to be losses.  All in all, this is looking like a tough year for Louisville compared to the expectations of the fan base.  It is hard to envision wins over Florida State and Clemson.  Even assuming significant success beyond those two games, that does not give much cushion in an improving conference.  The over/under, therefore, is set at 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Will Louisville go over or under 7.5 regular season wins?

Recap of the Confidential Football Over-Unders for 2015

Here is a quick recap of the Confidential ACC Football Over-Unders for 2015… in order by over-under win total:

See the team pages for more analysis.  Welcome any criticism too…

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: Clemson

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The final team up: Clemson.  We are going with an over/under of 10.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 5 vs Wofford
  2. September 12 vs Appalachian St
  3. September 17 @ Louisville
  4. October 3 vs Notre Dame
  5. October 10 vs Georgia Tech
  6. October 17 vs Boston College
  7. October 24 @ Miami
  8. October 31 @ NC State
  9. November 7 vs Florida State
  10. November 14 @ Syracuse
  11. November 21 vs Wake Forest
  12. November 28 @ South Carolina

Likely losses: Two of South Carolina, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Louisville

Likely wins: Wofford, Appalachian State, BC, NC State, Wake Forest

Summary:  This is a tough, but decent, schedule for Clemson.   A couple cupcakes to open the season before a trip to Louisville.  Then, a long rest before hosting Notre dame and Georgia Tech.  Trips to Miami and NC State are challenges before the visit from Florida State.  Then games against Syracuse and Wake Forest before heading to South Carolina.  Clemson could run the table, they could lose all four of the “Likely losses,” or somewhere in between.  Ultimately, the Confidential goes with an over-under of 10.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State Duke Boston College UNC

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: Syracuse

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The next team up: Syracuse (see recent discussion of Syracuse).  We are going with an over/under of 5.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 4 vs Rhode Island
  2. September 12 vs Wake Forest
  3. September 19 vs Central Michigan
  4. September 26 vs Louisiana State
  5. October 10 @ South Florida
  6. October 17 @ Virginia
  7. October 24 vs Pittsburgh
  8. October 31 @ Florida State
  9. November 7 @ Louisville
  10. November 14 vs Clemson
  11. November 21 @ NC State
  12. November 28 vs Boston College

Likely losses: LSU, Florida State, Louisville, Clemson

Likely wins: Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Central Michigan

Summary:  Syracuse finally scheduled somewhat appropriately–with only one P5 school, LSU.  Still, LSU is a tough opponent for a school like Syracuse, which rarely fares well against 10-win teams.  But there is a legitimate chance for Syracuse to start 3-0, and perhaps even get to 6-1 before the Florida State game.  They might have to if they want to be bowl-eligible because you have to think that the three game stretch of FSU, Louisville, and Clemson is going to be a three-loss stretch.  We think Syracuse improves a notch over last–but bowl eligibility may require Syracuse to go 3-1 OOC and then beat 3 of Virginia, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest, and BC?  It is easy to say yes in August.  Let’s see if the ‘Cuse can actually do it.  Ultimately, the Confidential deems it a toss up and goes with an over-under of 5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State Duke Boston College UNC

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