The Confidential

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The Confidential’s 2016 Football Over-Under: North Carolina

Last year, the Confidential unveiled over-unders for each ACC school.  For North Carolina, the over-under was set at 7.5 regular season wins.  Ultimately, the Tar Heels ended up with 11 regular season wins, sweeping the regular season after a disappointing loss to an underwhelming South Carolina team in Week 1.  But now it is on to 2016.  The Confidential sets the over-under for North Carolina at 8.5 regular season wins.

Here is the schedule for 2016, courtesy of a great football site:

9/3 Sat @ Georgia
9/10 Sat @ Illinois
9/17 Sat vs. James Madison
9/24 Sat vs. *Pittsburgh
10/1 Sat @ *Florida State
10/8 Sat vs. *Virginia Tech
10/15 Sat @ *Miami (Florida)
10/22 Sat @ *Virginia
11/5 Sat vs. *Georgia Tech
11/10 Thu @ *Duke
11/19 Sat vs. Citadel
11/25 Fri vs. *North Carolina State

Very likely wins: James Madison, Citadel

Very likely losses: @ Georgia, @ Florida State

Verdict: Last year was a great year for North Carolina, with a final record of 11-3.  The 11-straight regular season wins was substantially impressive and the one regular season loss to South Carolina was in Game 1.  This year, North Carolina starts with an even more difficult SEC foe–Georgia.  Then, Illinois on the road.  Should be a win, but a Big 10 school at home is hard to characterize as a “very likely” win, regardless of the talent.  Despite the talent in Chapel Hill, it is hard to find “very likely” wins on a schedule that has many wins that would not be surprising, but just not enough certainty to be even surprised by a loss.  Virginia and Duke are on the road.  Who knows what Miami and Virginia Tech will be under new coaches?  All in all, the Confidential just does not see North Carolina doing nearly as well as last year.  That means an over-under of 8.5 regular season wins.

What do you think?  Will North Carolina go over or under 8.5 regular season wins?


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