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04 Nov 2016

The Confidential’s ACC Basketball Preseason Rankings

The Confidential’s football top 15 rankings are a regular thing.  With basketball right around the corner, it is time to roll out a preseason ranking.  This is sure to fire up some folks–but, remember, no games have even been played yet.  And if bubble teams can make Final Fours every few years, even a middle of the pack team has a chance.  In any event, here are the preseason rankings:

  1. Duke. Duke is as stacked as ever, with top recruits and a lot of returning experience surrounding Grayson Allen.  More than enough ingredients for Coach K to bake a Final Four cake.     
  2. North Carolina.  The Tar Heels have lost considerable talent, but Virginia and Syracuse have lost a lot too.  It will probably be a step back, but don’t be surprised to see UNC in the hunt to win the ACC.
  3. Syracuse.  Huh?  Syracuse lost some players to the NBA off a team that barely eked into the Big Dance, but has had an influx of transfers to fill out the roster.  Hard to argue against that.
  4. Virginia.  The Wahoos are one of several teams battling for the #2 spot behind Duke, and a potential surprise to win it all.  One wonders if there will be a hangover from the difficult loss to Syracuse in the Big Dance last year.
  5. Louisville.  A very good team.  And even if it is not in November, Rick Pitino will find a way to make them even more dangerous by March.
  6. Florida State.  The second tier is led by Florida State, who is capable of threatening to rise to the top tier under Leonard Hamilton.
  7. Miami.  The Hurricanes take a step back this year, but don’t expect them to drop TOO far.  The Florida hoops teams are doing quite well of late.
  8. Notre Dame.  The Fighting Irish lost a great player, but still return three starters.
  9. Virginia Tech.  Sooner or later, Buzz Williams will have the Hokies making some noise.
  10. Clemson.  Clemson had a few nice upsets last year and will look to build on that this year.
  11. Wake Forest.  Danny Manning has things moving in the right direction.
  12. Pittsburgh.  The loss of Jamie Dixon will be felt this year.
  13. North Carolina State.  The offense will lag behind the defense this year.
  14. Georgia Tech.  Still rebuilding under Josh Pastner.
  15. Boston College.  Oh well.

Projected NCAA bids: BOLD.  Projected Post-Season bids: Italics.

What do you think?  How would you rank the top 5, top 10, and/or top 15? 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Predictions, Rankings and tagged , , , ,
19 Aug 2016
2 Comments

2016 Syracuse Football–Are Any Prognosticators Optimistic?

The Confidential has already disclosed its over-under for Syracuse, placing it at 4.5 regular season wins.  Turns out, many are projecting Syracuse to win 3 or fewer games, and perhaps even finish last in the ACC Atlantic.  Well, for whatever its worth, Las Vegas used an over-under of 4 wins for Syracuse.  But, most of the feedback to the Confidential was that 4.5 regular season wins was a fair estimate given the new coaching staff, existing talent, and the typical overscheduling by the Orange.  But any prognosticators projecting Syracuse to go “over” the 4.5 regular season win total?  Did some research today.  Turns out there are some:

TodaysU predicts that the Orange will go 5-7, beating Colgate, South Florida, UConn, Wake Forest, and Boston College.

CollegeFootball News was more optimistic for the Orange, predicting 6-6.  They have Syracuse beating Colgate, South Florida, UConn, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina State.

CampusInsiders, similarly, has Syracuse at 6-6 by beating Colgate, South Florida, UConn, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and North Carolina State.

Way back in January, Brent Axe predicted 5-7, with wins over Colgate, UConn, Wake Forest, Boston College, and NC State.

The NunesMagician blog also did some “fuzzy math” projections in January, coming up with 4.6 wins.  Hey, it’s “over” the 4.5 over-under!

SB Nation had a TON of analysis of the 2016 Orange football team, settling on 5.5 wins.  Definitely check out that article.

So… Syracuse fans… not everyone is doom and gloom.  There is some reason to not already look ahead to 2017 and instead see the very real possibility of a bowl game in 2016.

Did we miss anyone’s positive preview/projection?  What do you think?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Predictions, Syracuse correspondent and tagged , , ,
27 Jan 2016
3 Comments

2016 ACC Football: Games of the Week

The ACC released the football schedules for all schools earlier this week.  By now, fans have had their first thoughts on how positive and negative the specific schedule will be.  From an ACC fan perspective, the schedule analysis is broader–for example, what is the “must see” game of the week.  Here is the Confidential’s early prediction on what will be the games to watch each week:

  1. Week 1… with all due respect to Florida State and UNC, who are coming off great 2015 seasons, it was Clemson that carried the ACC in 2015 and the Tigers open Week 1 against Auburn.  If they can pull of that road win against a tough SEC foe, it will be a good omen.
  2. Week 2… with apologies to Virginia Tech and Syracuse/Louisville… Pitt hosting Penn State gets the nod.  These two Pennsylvania rivals have not faced each other often of late, but it will be ACC vs Big 10 in week 2.
  3. Week 3… no real contest here… if Louisville and Florida State are both 2-0 at this point, it will be all the more important to the Atlantic/ACC race.  And if either school has lost heading into this one, there could be desperation.
  4. Week 4… Duke vs. Notre Dame has historically been more interesting in basketball, but these are different times and the Blue Devils are quite competent.  They will give the Fighting Irish something to think about.
  5. Week 5…  a fair amount of good conference games, but the slight edge goes to Clemson-Louisville.  If Clemson is a top ranked team, the Cardinals will either be rolling or desperate.
  6. Week 6… Florida State traveling to Miami should be interesting.  Miami under a new coaching staff needs to start taking advantage of its talent.  An upset win over FSU would be a big momentum boost.
  7. Week 7… Virginia Tech and Syracuse used to play annually in the Big East.  While Frank Beamer coached all of those games for the Hokies, these two former rivals play as ACC foes in 2016, in the Dome, with Syracuse under a new coaching staff as well.
  8. Week 8… Speaking of new coaching staffs, Virginia has one as well.  In Week 8, rival North Carolina will come to Charlottesville.  Keep an eye on this one.
  9. Week 9… The biggest ACC game of the year in recent years has not been the conference championship game, but Clemson-FSU.  This year, Clemson will travel to Florida State.  Circle this one on your calendar for sure.
  10. Week 10… a difficult week to know which game will be the most important.  Will Clemson have looked past Syracuse in a post-FSU matchup?  Florida State has struggled at NC State recently.  Pitt-Miami is a Coastal clash, as is Georgia Tech-North Carolina.
  11. Week 11… with apologies to Duke-UNC, the Confidential ponders whether Pitt traveling to Clemson may feature the top teams in each division.
  12. Week 12… while many teams are slowing down to prepare for ACC/SEC rivalry games, a Northeast rivalry between BC and UConn will resume.  This game may feature less than 10 total points, but both schools detest each other.  Tune in.
  13. Week 13… of all the rivalry games, chances are that Florida State/Florida will be the best combination of high ranked teams and great teams.  South Carolina should struggle this year.

What do you think?  How do you rank the games of the week for each week?  Let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Predictions, Schedule and tagged , , ,
28 Aug 2015
1 Comment

The 2015 Confidential Preseason ACC Football Poll

FOOTBALL IS BACK!   ACC FOOTBALL IS BACK!   It looks to be a promising year for the ACC, as many experienced quarterbacks return and there is significant coaching stability.  While Wake Forest and Virginia may be the long shots to get to bowl eligibility in each division, there is a significant regression to the mean with FSU losing Winston (among others) and everyone else improving.   In any event, with football here, it is time for the Confidential’s preseason football poll–with 5 Confidential correspondents participating.  Remember to join our individual player fantasy league and our survivor leagues… they are FREE, easy to play, and have CA$H prizes to the winners.  In any event, here is the first poll results, with links to the Confidential’s over/under for each school:

  1. Florida State (48 points, 3 first place votes).  The Seminoles have lost of a lot, but most people figure that they will stay on top.  Jimbo Fisher has reloaded, making it fairly likely.
  2. Clemson (45 points, 2 first place votes).  Quarterback is an essential position in football and Clemson has a dynamic one.  With studs at WR and a solid defense (despite some losses), Clemson has a legitimate claim to the division and conference title.
  3. Notre Dame (38 points).  The Fighting Irish are not sufficiently ACC to be eligible to win it, but they will be good.  Whether they are the 3rd best team of the 15 remains to be seen.  That is the preseason position though.
  4. Georgia Tech (36 points).  The Yellow Jackets may be ready to reclaim the Coastal.  Pitt is loaded at skill positions, Virginia Tech is always a threat, Miami is desperate for a return to greatness, and Duke/UNC want to be more than hoops schools.  We will see.
  5. Louisville (29 points).  The Cardinals are flying under the radar, which is probably how Bobby Petrino likes it.  Certainly not going to resign themselves to the perpetual #3 spot in the Atlantic.
  6. Virginia Tech (27 points).  Is this about name recognition or potential?  The Hokies have not been their typically football selves lately.
  7. NC State (14 points).  With such an easy schedule, it will be hard for NC State not to get to bowl eligibility.  Does that make them better than the schools below them in win totals?  Debatable.
  8. Miami (13 points).  If Miami had NC State’s schedule, perhaps the schools would flip-flop.  Then again, Miami finds new ways to disappoint ever year.  Still waiting for that first Coastal division championship…
  9. North Carolina (12 points).  With solid skill players, the real question is whether that defense can improve.  With new coaching blood on that side of the ball, time will tell.
  10. Boston College (5 points).  For the past two years, Boston College has gone toe-to-toe with Florida State, Clemson, and USC (winning too!).  Regardless of talent, good to see them in this final position in the poll.

Others: Pitt (3 points), Duke (3 points).  Syracuse, Virginia, and Wake Forest did not receive votes.

See the team pages for more analysis.  Welcome any criticism too…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Poll, Predictions, Top 10 and tagged , , , , ,
07 Aug 2015

Recap of the Confidential Football Over-Unders for 2015

Here is a quick recap of the Confidential ACC Football Over-Unders for 2015… in order by over-under win total:

See the team pages for more analysis.  Welcome any criticism too…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Over/Under, Predictions and tagged , , ,
05 Aug 2015
3 Comments

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: Clemson

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The final team up: Clemson.  We are going with an over/under of 10.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 5 vs Wofford
  2. September 12 vs Appalachian St
  3. September 17 @ Louisville
  4. October 3 vs Notre Dame
  5. October 10 vs Georgia Tech
  6. October 17 vs Boston College
  7. October 24 @ Miami
  8. October 31 @ NC State
  9. November 7 vs Florida State
  10. November 14 @ Syracuse
  11. November 21 vs Wake Forest
  12. November 28 @ South Carolina

Likely losses: Two of South Carolina, Florida State, Notre Dame, and Louisville

Likely wins: Wofford, Appalachian State, BC, NC State, Wake Forest

Summary:  This is a tough, but decent, schedule for Clemson.   A couple cupcakes to open the season before a trip to Louisville.  Then, a long rest before hosting Notre dame and Georgia Tech.  Trips to Miami and NC State are challenges before the visit from Florida State.  Then games against Syracuse and Wake Forest before heading to South Carolina.  Clemson could run the table, they could lose all four of the “Likely losses,” or somewhere in between.  Ultimately, the Confidential goes with an over-under of 10.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State Duke Boston College UNC

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Over/Under, Poll, Predictions and tagged , , , , , ,
04 Aug 2015
4 Comments

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: Syracuse

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The next team up: Syracuse (see recent discussion of Syracuse).  We are going with an over/under of 5.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 4 vs Rhode Island
  2. September 12 vs Wake Forest
  3. September 19 vs Central Michigan
  4. September 26 vs Louisiana State
  5. October 10 @ South Florida
  6. October 17 @ Virginia
  7. October 24 vs Pittsburgh
  8. October 31 @ Florida State
  9. November 7 @ Louisville
  10. November 14 vs Clemson
  11. November 21 @ NC State
  12. November 28 vs Boston College

Likely losses: LSU, Florida State, Louisville, Clemson

Likely wins: Rhode Island, Wake Forest, Central Michigan

Summary:  Syracuse finally scheduled somewhat appropriately–with only one P5 school, LSU.  Still, LSU is a tough opponent for a school like Syracuse, which rarely fares well against 10-win teams.  But there is a legitimate chance for Syracuse to start 3-0, and perhaps even get to 6-1 before the Florida State game.  They might have to if they want to be bowl-eligible because you have to think that the three game stretch of FSU, Louisville, and Clemson is going to be a three-loss stretch.  We think Syracuse improves a notch over last–but bowl eligibility may require Syracuse to go 3-1 OOC and then beat 3 of Virginia, Pitt, NC State, Wake Forest, and BC?  It is easy to say yes in August.  Let’s see if the ‘Cuse can actually do it.  Ultimately, the Confidential deems it a toss up and goes with an over-under of 5.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State Duke Boston College UNC

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Over/Under, Poll, Predictions and tagged , , , , , ,
04 Aug 2015
4 Comments

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: North Carolina

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The next team up: North Carolina.  We are going with an over/under of 7.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 3 vs South Carolina (Charlotte, NC)
  2. September 12 vs North Carolina A&T
  3. September 19 vs Illinois
  4. September 26 vs Delaware
  5. October 3 @ Georgia Tech
  6. October 17 vs Wake Forest
  7. October 24 vs Virginia
  8. October 29 @ Pittsburgh
  9. November 7 vs Duke
  10. November 14 vs Miami
  11. November 21 @ Virginia Tech
  12. November 28 @ NC State

Likely losses: South Carolina, @Georgia Tech

Likely wins: NC A&T, Delaware, Wake Forest, Illinois or NC State

Summary:  Like Boston College, North Carolina has two games against FCS opponents–North Carolina A&T and Delaware.  In addition, UNC also plays all but one of its first seven games in the state of North Carolina and 9 overall in the state.  Make no mistake, South Carolina will be tough, and Illinois is no pushover despite its recent futility.  Still, with a Coastal slate and Atlantic games against Wake Forest and NC State, North Carolina has a path to the ACC Championship Game.  That being said, the Confidential does not expect same.  Ultimately, the Confidential goes with an over-under of 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State Duke Boston College

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Over/Under, Poll, Predictions and tagged , , , , , ,
03 Aug 2015
6 Comments

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: Boston College

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The next team up: Boston College.  We are going with an over/under of 7.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 5 vs Maine
  2. September 12 vs Howard
  3. September 18 vs Florida State
  4. September 26 vs Northern Illinois
  5. October 3 @ Duke
  6. October 10 vs Wake Forest
  7. October 17 @ Clemson
  8. October 24 @ Louisville
  9. October 31 vs Virginia Tech
  10. November 7 vs NC State
  11. November 21 @ Notre Dame (Fenway Park)
  12. November 28 @ Syracuse

Likely losses: Florida State, Clemson and Louisville

Likely wins: Maine, Howard, Wake Forest and NC State

Summary:  With 8 games in Massachusetts, including that “road game” against Notre Dame at Fenway Park, Boston College has one good thing going for it.  The scheduling of Maine and Howard should equal two more wins.  Hosting Florida State, as well as trips to Clemson and Louisville, should be three losses.  However, Boston College has played everyone close the past two years–nothing should be taken for granted.  One wonders about health and attrition, as the only bye week comes on November 14–late in the season.  But we see good things for the Eagles overall.   Ultimately, the Confidential goes with an over-under of 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State Duke Boston College

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Over/Under, Poll, Predictions and tagged , , , , , ,
22 Jul 2015
6 Comments

The Football Over-Unders for 2015: Duke

This article is another in a series of articles in which the Confidential opines regarding the over/under for football wins in 2015.  We’ll take a cursory look at the schedule and determine what we think is the point where folks will struggle to select “over” or “under.”  We hope people will share their comments as to “why” they are going over/under.  If you disagree with our over/under choice, of course, feel free to let us know too.  The next team up: Duke.  We are going with an over/under of 7.5 regular season wins.

  1. September 3 @ Tulane
  2. September 12 vs North Carolina Central
  3. September 19 vs Northwestern
  4. September 26 vs Georgia Tech
  5. October 3 vs Boston College
  6. October 10 @ Army
  7. October 24 @ Virginia Tech
  8. October 31  vs Miami
  9. November 7 @ North Carolina
  10. November 14 vs Pittsburgh
  11. November 21 @ Virginia
  12. November 28 @ Wake Forest

Likely losses: Who knows?  Have to be some in here, right?

Likely wins: Tulane, NC Central, Army

Summary:  Duke rivals North Carolina State for schedule ease, but similarly goes on the road for two of its foes–Tulane and Army.  This, of course, is sandwiched around four home games.  The Confidential has no idea how Duke will do this year.  None.  Home losses to Northwestern, Georgia Tech, Miami, and Pitt could happen… or not.  Road losses to Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and Virginia could happen.  Or not.  Heck, even Wake Forest could beat Duke–especially with Wake hosting the game.  Or not.  Kind of absurd that Duke avoids all of Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville in crossover games.  Seriously, anything could happen here.  0-12.  12-0.  Ultimately, however, the Confidential goes with a a default over-under of 7.5 wins.

What do you think?  Over or under?  Let us know.

Prior discussions: Florida State Georgia Tech Wake Forest Pitt Virginia Virginia Tech Louisville Miami Notre Dame NC State

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Over/Under, Poll, Predictions and tagged , , , , , ,

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