The Confidential

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The Confidential’s Basketball Top 30 for December 13, 2011

With over 300 teams in college basketball, the top 25 is just not enough anymore.  Here is the Confidential’s Top 30 for December 13, 2011:

  1. Syracuse (10-0).  Although Syracuse has not faced the same level of difficult opponents as some of the other elite programs, they have beaten Florida, Stanford, and Va Tech.  Big test at North Carolina State on Saturday
  2. Ohio State (8-1).  Losing to Kansas is nothing to be embarrassed about.  Doing it without your best player (perhaps the best player in the nation) makes it all the more reasonable.  Wins over Duke and Florida.
  3. Kentucky (8-1).  Again, losing to undefeated Indiana is not the end of the world here, especially for a team that has beaten North Carolina and Kansas.
  4. North Carolina (8-2).  There is no reason for a two-loss team to be this high in the standings.  But the rest of the undefeated teams have played far weaker schedules.  Wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State already.
  5. Duke (9-1).  Not many teams can lose by 20 and still be ranked in the top 5.  But Duke has beaten Kansas, Michigan, and Michigan State.
  6. Louisville (9-0).  Undefeated, but not the best grouping of wins.  Vanderbilt is decent though.  They get Memphis this weekend.
  7. Marquette (9-0). Like North Carolina, they have a win over Wisconsin.  Unlike North Carolina, no notable wins anywhere else.  Mississippi is probably the best.
  8. Kansas (7-2).  Losses to Kentucky and Duke hurt, but the Jayhawks already have wins over Georgetown, UCLA, and now Ohio State.
  9. Missouri (9-0).  The Tigers are undefeated and have wins over Villanova, Notre Dame, and California.  Not too shabby.
  10. Florida (7-2).  Like Baylor, Florida has 7 mediocre wins.  Unlike Baylor, they tested themselves in road losses to Syracuse and Ohio State.  Why punish the team that tries?
  11. Baylor (7-0).  Not going to reward Baylor for slotting them ahead of a team that schedules harder and has the same resume of wins.
  12. Xavier (8-0).  They have wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Butler, and now Cincinnati.  Unfortunately, having to play short-handed the next few games is not going to help.
  13. Georgetown (8-1).  Wins over Alabama and Memphis give Georgetown the edge over Big East foes.  Only loss is to Kansas.
  14. UConn (8-1).  Loss to UCF remains a head scratcher, but the Huskies now have wins over Harvard, Arkansas, and Florida State.
  15. Pittsburgh (8-1).  Loss to Long Beach State is even more curious, but Pitt is rebounding nicely.  Wins over Tennessee and Oklahoma State are good starts.
  16. Wisconsin (8-2).  Losses to UNC and Marquette hurt, but Wisconsin has rebounded with a win over UNLV.  We’ll learn more when Big 10 play starts.
  17. Indiana (9-0).  Win over Kentucky, last-second or otherwise, is that chip to merit a ranking.  Next up?  Notre Dame.
  18. Michigan State (8-2).  Rebounded nicely from the losses to UNC and Duke.  Wins over Florida State and now Gonzaga.
  19. Illinois (10-0).  Only test so far is Gonzaga.  Maryland is not the usual Maryland.
  20. Murray State (10-0).  Win at Memphis is nice.  They also have a win over Dayton.
  21. Mississippi State (9-1).  Nice wins over West Virginia, Arizona, and Texas A&M.  The loss to Akron is hard to explain though.
  22. Vanderbilt (6-3).  Losses to Louisville and Xavier are excusable.  Cleveland State???  What is going on in Ohio?
  23. Harvard (9-1).  Handled pretty easily by UConn.  The win over Florida State is the big one.
  24. Michigan (7-2).  No shame in losing to Duke.  Virginia was winnable, but ultimately a loss.  Best win is over Memphis.
  25. UNLV (7-2).  The win over North Carolina was huge.  The loss to Wisconsin on the road is understandable.  Looking forward to game against Illinois.
  26. Stanford (8-1).  Wins over North Carolina State and Oklahoma State.  Only loss was after giving Syracuse a run for its money in New York City.
  27. Alabama (8-2).  Losses to Georgetown and Dayton.  Wins over Wichita State and Purdue though.
  28. Northwestern (7-1).  Drubbed by Baylor, but nice wins over Seton Hall and Georgia Tech.
  29. Virginia (8-1).  Only decent win is over Michigan.  Time will tell on the Cavs.
  30. Mississippi (8-1).  Very bad loss to Marquette.  Decent wins over Miami and Drake.

If the season ended today, all of these teams could be in the Big Dance.  We will see how it plays out though…

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 12, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 12, 2011:

1Syracuse–Not overly impressive in defeating Marshall, but an appropriately lopsided win over George Washington.  At 10-0, likely to be #1 in the nation.

2. North Carolina–At 8-2, the Tar Heels look to have righted things again.  The win over Long Beach State was closer than expected against even a battle-tested team.  Still, no reason to drop the Tar Heels yet.

3. Duke–Duke’s win over Washington was nice, but not enough to leapfrog North Carolina.  The Blue Devils are 9-1 on the season though.

4. Virginia–At 8-1, the Cavs had a light week this week.  But they took care of George Mason by 20 points.  No reason to drop them in the standings.

5. Pittsburgh–At 9-1, the Panthers have rebounded nicely from the loss to Long Beach State.  A very good win over Oklahoma on Saturday.

6. Virginia Tech–One of two 7-3 teams, the edge goes to the Hokies here.  They lost to a challenging Kansas State team, before rallying late in the week to beat Rhode Island and Norfolk State.

7. Florida State– The Seminoles are also 7-3, but remain in need of a quality win.  For now, this keeps Florida State behind Georgia Tech.

8North Carolina State–At 6-3, the Wolfpack will get their chance to make a move this week.  Syracuse visits on Saturday.

9. Georgia Tech–At 6-4, Georgia Tech had a nice rebound week by beating instate rival Georgia and instate foe Savannah State.

10. Maryland–At 5-3, Maryland is showing some life again.  The win over St. Mary was another step in the right direction.

11. Miami-At 5-4, Miami is reeling against tough competition.  Games against Memphis and West Virginia would be challenging for the top 5 teams in the conference, much less the Hurricanes.

12. Wake Forest– At 6-4, the Demon Deacons are a tough team to figure out.  After beating Texas Tech, there was hope that Wake could beat Seton Hall.  It was not to be.

13. Clemson–At 4-4, the Tigers last two losses were to South Carolina and Arizona.  They need an easier game soon to stop the current slump

14. Boston College--At 3-7, the only team in the ACC with a losing record.  For more on the Eagles, see this analysis.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Hoops Recap: Sunday Improvement for the ACC

Yesterday, the ACC struggled to a 3-3 record among current conference teams.  Sunday got much better as the league went 4-0.

Florida State improved to 7-3 with a 75-60 over North Carolina-Greensboro.  The Seminoles’ defense did the job, allowing only a 35% shooting percentage.  However, the offense struggled to the tune of 26 turnovers.  Overall, Florida State has a balanced attack, with none of the 9 players to get action to exceed 30 minutes.  Michael Snaer led the way with 14 points.

Virginia Tech also improved to 7-3 with its 73-60 win over Norfolk State.  The score was a bit misleading, as CBS noted:

The Spartans (6-4), who have quality victories over Drexel and Texas Christian and lost to Marquette by just two points, kept the game close throughout and cut the lead to 65-59 on Chris McEachin’s 3-pointer with 2:58 left in the game. But Virginia Tech’s Dorenzo Hudson hit a free throw with 2:05 left to make it 66-59. After McEachin missed a 3-pointer for Norfolk State with 1:40 to go, Eddie put the game away, draining his final 3-pointer with 1:07 remaining to push the Hokies’ lead back to 10.

But the Hokies were able to fend off this surprisingly tough foe, led by Jarell Eddie’s 24 points.

In its final tune-up before hosting Syracuse on Saturday, North Carolina State defeated North Carolina Central, 65-60.  The Wolfpack held a 10-point lead at halftime, but were never able to put away the Eagles.  C.J. Williams led the way for North Carolina State with 21 points.  Credit the team board work too; although no individual put up gaudy rebounding totals, North Carolina State held a 41-30 advantage in that category.

Finally, the ACC’s day was so good that even Boston College nabbed a rare win.  The Eagles were able to defeat Stony Brook soundly, 66-51.   Patrick Heckmann came off the bench to lead Boston College with 18 points.  With the win, Boston College improves to 3-7.  A win is a win is a win.

Hoops Recap: Saturday Not Kind to the ACC

Although future ACC member Syracuse was able to win and likely grab onto to #1 in the next polls, the current ACC did not fare as well–splitting its 6 games on Saturday.

Actually, another future ACC member, #15 Pittsburgh, did its job with 74-68 win over 6-3 Oklahoma State.  As is typical, the Panthers were outstanding defensively and on the boards.  The Cowboys were held to 40.9% shooting and were outrebounded 37-23.  Ashton Gibbs led Pitt with 17 points, while Lamar Patterson was a box score stuffer with 12 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists.  With the win, Pitt moves to 9-1.

And #7 Duke certainly did its part, defeating a surprisingly tough Washington Huskies squad, 86-80.  Although the Blue Devils opened strong with a 14-point halftime lead, Washington made it interesting late.  This was particularly impressive as the Huskies had been in New York all week, starting with a Jimmy V Classic loss to Marquette.  But credit Duke for starting strong and doing enough at the free throw stripe down the stretch to win.  Duke had 7 players play 20 minutes, and 6 of them contributed at least 8 points.  Austin Rivers led Duke with 18 points, allowing Duke to get to 9-1.

Similarly, #4 North Carolina was able to fend off upstart Long Beach State, 84-78.  This one was the opposite of the Duke game, with Long Beach State controlling the first half before succumbing to the Tar Heels talent advantage in the second half.  While the knee-jerk reaction is to wonder how North Carolina was not able to destroy a 4-5 team from California, recall that Long Beach State upset Pitt on the road and only narrowly lost to Kansas too.  The North Carolina quartet of Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Reggie Bullock, and Tyler Zeller scored 78 of North Carolina’s 84 points.  But credit Kendall Marshall too–he dished out 16 assists, the fourth time this year he has had 14 assists or more.  North Carolina is now 8-2 on the season.

In a test game for Wake Forest, they lost to Seton Hall on the road, 68-54.  The Demon Deacons were unable to stop Herb Pope, who scored 26 points and grabbed 14 rebounds for the host Pirates.  While nobody was expecting a win over 9-1 Seton Hall, this game  certainly was not one where Wake Forest was going to be overmatched from a talent standpoints.  Overall, Seton Hall figures to little more than a middle-of-the-pack Big East team.  But that was still too much for Wake, which falls to 6-4.  Wake Forest was led by Travis McKie’s 17 points.

In another ACC-Big East matchup, West Virginia handled Miami, 77-66.  Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers were coming off a win over Kansas State on Thursday, but had enough in the tank to defeat the visiting Hurricanes.  Truck Bryant led West Virginia with 27 points, including 5 three-pointers.  Miami was led by Malcolm Grant’s 17 points.  Although the early season started with great promise, the Hurricanes have now lost 4 of 5 in this very tough stretch of non-conference games.  Fortunately for Jim Larranaga, the difficulty eases up a bit before conference games start.

Clemson provided the third loss for the ACC on Saturday, falling to 7-3 Arizona, 63-47 in Tucson.  For the 4-4 Tigers, a trip to 7-3 Arizona was always going to be quite a test.  Unfortunately, only Andre Young was able to score effectively, as he led the Tigers with 17 points.  The team as a whole shot 31.7% from the field–which will never get it done.

Finally, Georgia Tech defeated Savannah State, 65-45.  While the Yellow Jackets deserve credit for being willing to travel to an in-state opponent of this caliber, this was never going to be much of a contest.  Brandon Reed and Daniel Miller combined to go 12 for 13 from the field, as Savannah State was simply overmatched.  With the win, Georgia Tech gets to 6-4.

Future ACC Member Syracuse Wins, Looks to Jump to #1 in Hoops!

While nobody knows when Syracuse (and Pittsburgh) will be joining the ACC, the Confidential is pleased to note that the Orange are starting to make a larger percentage of their noise on the court these days.  As the Bernie Fine issue fades into the background, the Orange moved to 10-0 on the season with an 85-50 win over George Washington.  Most importantly, with the win, Syracuse is primed to jump to #1 in the polls Monday.

The reason why Syracuse is likely to move to #1 is that the two teams ahead of them in the rankings, Kentucky and Ohio State, both lost on Saturday.  Meanwhile, the 4 teams behind Syracuse–Louisville, North Carolina, Baylor, and Duke–are unlikely to leapfrog a Syracuse team that has beaten Virginia Tech, Stanford, and Florida on the young season.

Once again, the Syracuse depth was too much for an overmatched opponent.  10 different players logged at least 13 minutes for Syracuse and each of them scored at least 4 points.  No starter was in double-figures in scoring; however, super-sub Dion Waiters scored 19 points–including an incredible dunk in transition.

In addition to Syracuse’s depth, the defense continues to be outstanding.  The Orange held George Washington to 30.6% shooting, including 16.7% from three-point range.  Syracuse had 11 steals, 8 blocks, and forced 18 turnovers.  Syracuse came into the game leading the nation with 12.44 steals per game.  They are in the top 10 in the nation in blocks.  Oh, and they are averaging nearly 80 points per game.  The season is young, but they are simply off to an outstanding start.

While it is too early for the ACC to take full credit for Syracuse being #1, if it cannot be one of the current ACC teams, at least it is a future ACC team!

Syracuse's Fab Melo (51) and CJ Fair (5) team up for the block (AP Photo/Kevin Rivoli)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For more game photos, click here: (AP Photo/Kevin Rivoli)

Another Hoops Loss for Boston College

The Boston College Eagles dropped to 2-7 with a 64-57 loss to the Providence Friars on Thursday evening.  About the only good news is that Boston College were not blown out by the hosts.  After all, Providence is 8-2.

It is no secret that the Eagles were going to have a rebuilding season.  CBS noted as follows regarding the turnover between last year’s Eagles win and this year’s Eagles loss to Providence:

Only two players who scored against the Friars last season played for BC in this year’s matchup. After losing 10 letter winners from last year, the Eagles’ top four scorers Thursday were all freshmen.

That is a lot of turnover.  All in all, it is not surprising that Providence avenged last year’s loss.

The issue here is just how bad the start of the  season has been for Boston College.  The Confidential certainly gets that losing 10 players means starting over.  However, with the exception of this loss, just look at the teams that have beaten Boston College on the early season:

  • Holy Cross (3-6) by 18
  • UMass (7-3) by 16
  • St. Louis (8-1)  by 11
  • New Mexico (6-2) by 8
  • Penn State (6-4) by 8
  • Boston University (4-5) by 14
  • Providence (8-2) by 7

While not an embarrassing slate, this is far from the competition that other major conference school teams are facing in tournaments.  And yet only 9 teams in the 6 major-conferences (70 total teams) are under .500.  At 2-7, only Utah has a worse record among the major conference teams.  This is the time of year for these teams to feast on lesser opponents before failing victim to the brutal conference schedule.

But perhaps the REAL issue is that there is a reason to be hopeful.  The Confidential can think of several reasons why Eagles’ fans should keep the faith:

  1. Perhaps the Eagles are road warriors, as Providence was the first road game and the closest margin of loss!
  2. The loss margins are on the improve.  Setting aside the Boston University debacle, there has been consistent improvement in the margins of loss.  And, really, the margins of loss have not been that bad.  Better teams have been blown-out by much more this year.
  3. There may not be any final four teams on the schedule, but there are no patsies either.  A lot of midmajors that will be making some noise in March.
  4. The best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores, Al McGuire once said.  When you have 10 freshmen, you have 10 future sophomores

So, while there are few reasons to cheer right now, there is no reason for utter despair.  In fact, Boston College fans need only look to their football season.  After starting 1-7, the Eagles rallied to finish 4-8.  If the basketball team can show that much growth in the final portion of the season, there will be much reason for optimism heading into 2012-2013.  That does not help today, but should not be forgotten.

 

 

ACC Expansion Still on Hold

Yesterday, the Big East announced that it would stretch coast-to-coast by adding Boise State, San Diego State, Houston, SMU, and Central Florida.  If this move surprised you, then you are likely living without the Internet (how are you even reading this?) because this had been rumored and discussed for many weeks now.  The announcement was mere anti-climactic confirmation of what everyone had already known.  But it does impact the ACC because the addition did not in any way alter the Big East’s stance that Syracuse and Pittsburgh must stick around for the full 27-months before departing.

Indeed, according to ESPN, Big East Commissioner John Marinatto remains firm in holding Syracuse and Pittsburgh to that time frame:

Meanwhile, Marinatto said the conference is still determined to hold the three departing schools to the Big East bylaw that each signed and helped craft, especially Pitt, when it was the chair of the conference board, to a 27-month departure. That would mean the three schools couldn’t leave until the fall of 2014.

Pitt and Syracuse are joining the ACC and haven’t pushed to leave early.

While West Virginia has sued the Big East to leave early, Syracuse and Pittsburgh are placing nice.  And it is not being reciprocated.

The ESPN report further notes that ACC commissioner John Swofford has indicated that the ACC will accept those schools at any point over the next three years.  While there will be no battle over the schools, the ACC will not get caught flat-footed if they are released early.

The question that begs is why the Big East would really want to keep these schools around.  If Syracuse and Pitt have good seasons, that will just make their departure all the more painful.  Just think about what happens if either school defeats Boise State.  How much would the Broncos’ reputation be hurt the following year once those schools are gone?  And if Syracuse and Pitt have poor seasons, this will simply drag down the schedule strength of the current schools.  The Confidential understands that the Big East would want to keep Syracuse and Pitt around for basketball purposes–but that is the one area where the Big East does not need any help.  Why have your elite, remaining schools run the risk of losses to departing programs?  From an on-field perspective, there is little reason for the Big East to dig its heels in, especially now that the Big East has the Plan B in place.

One can only assume that the Big East’s position is one that can be negotiated with $$$.  If the schools offer to pay the Big East some additional funds, the Big East will release them.  It seems likely that there will be no changes for 2012, as the Big East cannot secure replacements that soon.  But, by 2013, that problem should be gone.

For the ACC, this means that expansion is still on hold.  It will be, at least, 2013 before we find out how many Syracuse fans will cram into the Carrier Dome to watch a game against Duke or North Carolina.

ACC Mens Hoops Teams Go 5 for 5 on Wednesday Night!

A week ago, the Confidential was lamenting a poor performance in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge.  A week later, things are looking a little better.  The ACC celebrated a perfect Wednesday, going 5 for 5.  You cannot do any better than that!

The #7 Duke Blue Devils improved to 8-1 with an 87-54 romp over Colorado State.  To be fair, Colorado State was probably distracted by wondering whether it was going to be selected to join the Big East.  After all, the Big East spent the day gobbling up teams nowhere near the East, but at least they are working on the “Big” side of the equation.  Returning to basketball, Duke was just way too much for Colorado State, shooting 56.4% from the field and holding Colorado State to 40.7%.  The Blue Devils had four players score in the teens, led by Freshman Austin Rivers with 17.  Duke will host the battled-tested Washington Huskies on Saturday.

In a rivalry game featuring two 4-4 teams , Georgia Tech was able to get a road win against Georgia, 68-56, avoid falling under .500 on the season.  This was a big win for Georgia Tech and new coach Brian Gregory (he of the growing Tom Izzo coaching tree) as the Yellow Jackets broke some historical futility in the process, as CBS noted that this was Georgia Tech’s first win at Georgia since November 26, 1976.  One can only wonder if then-President-elect Jimmy Carter was in town for the rivalry battle that year.  Kind of puts it in perspective.  All of Georgia Tech’s scoring came from 6 players, with reserve Jason Morris leading the team with 15 points.  The Yellow Jackets travel to Savannah State on Saturday.

Virginia Tech was able to defeat host Rhode Island, 78-67.  Credit the bench for this victory, as the reserves accounted for 44 of the Hokies 78 points.  They were led by Erick Green’s 24 points.  With the win, Virginia Tech is now 6-3.  They will host the Norfolk State Spartans on Sunday.

Although it was a little closer than desired, Maryland will take any wins it can get at this point, including their 77-74 win over Mount St. Mary’s.  The Terrapins benefited greatly from the charity stripe, converting 25 of 35 free throw attempts.  In contrast, Mount St. Mary’s only attempted 17 free throws.  Guard Terrell Stoglin led Maryland with 23 points.  Maryland gets a week off before hosting Florida International on Wednesday.  After a terrible start, Maryland is now sitting at 5-3.  It could be worse.

Capping off the ACC’s perfect night was an 87-83 victory for Wake Forest over High Point.  The Demon Deacons had to overcome a 35-point effort by High Point Guard Nick Barbour, who was not shy in launching 18 shots.  Along the way he converted 7 three-pointers.  But Wake Forest’s offense also came to play, with three starters–C.J. Harris (20), Tony Chennault (20), and Travis McKie (18)–combining for 58 points.  Wake Forest improves to 6-3 and will travel to Seton Hall on Saturday.  This will be a very tough game, as the Pirates are off to a somehow surprising 7-1 start.

Fedora to North Carolina Imminent

ESPN and other media outlets are reporting that Larry Fedora will leave Southern Mississippi to become the next head football coach for the North Carolina Tar Heels.  Fedora was 33-19 in four seasons at Southern Miss, including four straight bowl appearances.  The Golden Eagles will face Nevada in the 2011 Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl on December 24th.

For North Carolina, this ends several months of speculation since the firing of Butch Davis.  Although North Carolina had some very good years under Mack Brown in the 1990’s, they have not had a 10-win season since that decade.  Davis was unable to fix that and, worse yet, saw various NCAA infractions allegedly occur on his watch.

Still, Fedora enters a situation where the cupboard is far from bare.  The Tar Heels have been to four straight bowl games.  The ACC is good enough to merit two BCS bowl participants, but not so good to prevent a team like North Carolina from rising to the top.  Time will tell, but this certainly seems like a win-win hire for all parties.

North Carolina and Virginia Win, Miami Loses

The ACC had a decent night in men’s basketball, as North Carolina returned to its winning ways, Virginia held serve, and future members Pittsburgh and Syracuse won.  Indeed, the only blemish on the night was Miami losing to Memphis.

For #4 North Carolina, the Tar Heels rebounded from its Kentucky loss by doubling up visiting Evansville, 97-48.  In fact, UNC raced out to a 52-22 lead at the half, before coasting to the win.  Given the margin of victory, Coach Roy Williams was able to limit the starters to no more than 25 minutes.  Amazingly, the rebounding advantage was 59 for UNC and 26 for Evansville.  With the win, North Carolina is now 7-2.

Unranked, but hoping to change that, the Virginia Cavaliers improved to 8-1 with a 68-48 win over George Mason.  The Cavaliers shot an impressive 60.5% from the field in the win.   Sammy Zeglinski led the Cavs with 18 points, while three others chipped in 11.

Miami did not fare as well.  Credit the Hurricanes for a decent OOC schedule, but visiting Memphis, ranked #18, spanked Miami 71-54.  The game was actually close at the half, with Memphis leading 27-26.  But the Tigers’ offense took over in the second half.  Will Barton scored 27 points for Memphis, showing that he is not shy by launching 20 shots.  Miami’s scoring output was the lowest of the season.  The Hurricanes will take their 5-3 record into West Virginia on Saturday.

Future member Pittsburgh improved to 8-1 with a 97-70 win over VMI.  The 15th ranked Panthers had 5 players in double figures, led by Ashton Gibbs with 20 points.  They also outrebounded VMI 55 to 27, and held VMI to just 36.8% shooting.  That is Jamie Dixon basketball at its finest.

Finally, #3 Syracuse got to 9-0 by holding off Marshall, 62-56.  For the Orange, 10 players played more than 10 minutes.  Although Marshall outrebounded Syracuse (which was not a surprise), the Thundering Herd shot only 33.8% from the field and 20.8% from behind the arc.  Syracuse also forced 19 turnovers and had 10 blocks.  They won it with defense tonight.

 

 

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