The Confidential

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Archive for the category “Football”

06 Jan 2012

The ACC Bowl Disaster

Yesterday, the Confidential noted that the ACC needed Miami and Florida State to return to King status soon.  As the bowl season comes to a conclusion, it is clear that something is just not right with the conference from a football standpoint.

The bowl season began with the optimism of the ACC landing two teams in BCS bowls–Clemson and Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech was a surprise entrant into the Sugar Bowl and acquitted itself reasonably well in shutting down Michigan and only losing in overtime.  In many respects, Virginia Tech outplayed the Wolverines and deserved to win.  But they did not.  Another BCS loss for the ACC.

The hope on Wednesday night was that Clemson could do its part to carry the ACC by “taking care of” West Virginia in the Orange Bowl.  This is the same West Virginia team that beat 2-10 Maryland by 6 points.  The same West Virginia team that lost to Syracuse 49-23.  Clemson would have no trouble, right?

Wrong.

Instead, Clemson had one of the most embarrassing big stage performances in the history of the big stage, losing 70-33.  70 points.  35 in the second quarter.  A 99-yard fumble return.  589 yards of offense allowed.  The most points EVER scored by a team in a bowl game.  Conversely, Clemson allowed more points than any other team in bowl history has ever allowed.  And this was not to Oregon, Stanford, or Wisconsin.  This was not LSU or Alabama.  This was the West Virginia described above.  Utterly embarrassing.

According to CBS, the ACC has dropped to 1-5 in the last 6 Orange Bowl games:

ACC Champions in Orange Bowl
Year ACC Champ Result
2012 Clemson L, West Virginia 70-33
2011 Va. Tech L, Stanford 40-12
2010 Va. Tech W, Cincinnati 20-7
2009 Va. Tech L, Kansas 24-21
2008 Wake Forest L, Louisville 24-13
2007 Florida St. L, Penn State 26-23

4 different teams, the same dismal results.  In fact, according to ESPN, the ACC is now 2-13 in BCS bowl games.

In addition to the BCS games, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and North Carolina also lost their bowl games.  Fortunately, North Carolina State and Florida State won its bowl games.  That leaves the ACC at 2-6, with Pittsburgh yet to face SMU.

Wait, Florida State won its bowl game?  If you believe that the ACC needs Florida State to be leading the charge for the ACC, that is about the only good news to come out of this bowl season.  Two straight 9-win seasons.  If Florida State can take it up another level, maybe the ACC can deliver on its promise to be home to great football.  That’s the closest to good news that ACC football will have until kickoff next year.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Jan 2012
1 Comment

ACC Football: The Need for Florida State and Miami

The formula is pretty simple for the ACC.  It needs Miami and Florida State to play like kings.  It needs Virginia Tech and Clemson to be the next closes thing to a king.  And it needs a few other schools to rise up every few years and/or win impressive out-of-conference games, including bowl games.  But none of that works unless Miami and Florida State can return to something closer to the glory days.  They are the schools that need to carry the conference in football.

The Kings

Football is an elitist sport.  No matter how bad Ohio State and Florida might be, a win over those schools means a lot and a loss to these schools is respectable.  In contrast, losing to Iowa State is an unacceptable result.  Nevermind that Iowa State had the same regular season record as those schools in 2011, Oklahoma State was punished substantially for its loss to Iowa State.  Iowa State is simply not Ohio State or Florida, regardless of the record.

Once upon a time, Miami and Florida State were kings.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State went 11-1, 11-1, 10-2, 10-2, 11-2, 11-1, 12-1, 10-1-1, 10-2, 11-1, 11-1, 11-2, 12-0, and 11-2.  From 1983 to 2003, Miami had more than a dozen 10 win seasons, including three undefeated seasons. That is how you become a king–you win 10 or more games more often than not (or consecutively) for so long that people do not even know what it is like for you to not be in the top 10, much less unranked.

But that all ended in 2004, when Miami joined the ACC.  Perhaps not because of the move to the ACC.  But the move has certainly coincided with the fall from the top.  Since then, Miami has not had a 10-win season.  Florida State had one–in 2010.  Instead of playing like kings, these schools have played like princes.  Or worse.  Boston College won 10 games in both 2006 and 2007.  Wake Forest won 11 in 2006.  Obviously, it is not impossible to win 10+ games in the ACC.  The Florida schools just have not been able to do so.

For 2011, it was more of the same.  Miami went a pedestrian 6-6.  Good enough for a bowl, but the looming scandal persuaded the administrators to prudently pass that up.  Florida State did better, going 9-4.  But that is still not king territory.

What Went Wrong

The easiest answer is to blame the coaching situation.  Bobby Bowden might have stayed a bit too long–past his prime.  And Miami fired Larry Coker for having the audacity to not win 10 games and did not replace him.  Unlike the pros, college sports is dominated by coaches.

But the Confidential thinks it goes deeper than that.  In recent years, many schools have taken to recruiting Florida heavily.  When Greg Schiano moved up to Rutgers, he kept his Florida ties and established a pipeline from Miami to New Jersey.  The Louisville coaching staffs have consistently focused on Florida, from John L. Smith to present.  Wherever Rich Rodriguez was during the 2000’s, he recruited top athletes from Florida.  Add in the usual suspects, such as all of the SEC and ACC, as well as Notre Dame, and Florida talent is not slipping by.

Meanwhile, South Florida and Central Florida have arrived on the scene.  These schools have the ability to siphon off some of the great talent, while also keeping some of the good talent at home.  South Florida has made great strides toward converting Florida into a Big Four.

Will it Change?

Well, this is two straight 9-4 seasons for Florida State.  And it is a young team that can legitimately be projected to get over the 10-win barrier next year.  They have continued to stockpile talent via recent recruiting classes.  If it can translate into on-field performance, then Florida State will be back.

Miami is a different story.  While the scandal from last summer has died down, the NCAA is likely to dole out some sort of punishment.  So it is going to get worse before it gets better.  But Al Golden seems like the right fit to get the job done.  He kept that team together for most of the season.  Take away the head-scratching losses to Maryland (suspension-filled) and BC (already announced it was not bowling), and Miami was only beaten by Virginia, Va Tech, Kansas State and Florida State.  Four games by a total of 18 points.  If the sanctions are not too significant, Miami can rebound in a few years.

The bottom line is that the ACC needs things to change.  Virginia Tech and Clemson may win a national title some day, but failing to do so when Miami and FSU were reeling suggests otherwise.  As the bowl losses and national-reputation hits mount, it is going to take one or both of the Florida schools to state the ACC’s case on the national picture.  The sooner, the better.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , ,
31 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Final 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the final 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Clemson, Virginia Tech, and future member Pittsburgh.  So far, the Confidential is 3-1, correctly predicting the results on all but the Wake Forest game.

On January 3rd, the Sugar Bowl will feature Virginia Tech (11-2) and Michigan (10-2).  This game will be a battle between the explosive running attack of the Wolverines and the stingy rushing defense of Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech was able to bottle up Georgia Tech earlier in the year.  However, Michigan was able to move the ball against a good Nebraska defense.  Neither team had an extraordinarily difficult schedule.  The Hokies will be playing without their kicker, which might make a difference if this comes down to a low-scoring game.  Giving the Hokies defense this much time to prepare is the difference.   Prediction: Virginia Tech 21-Michigan 16.

On January 4th, the Orange Bowl will put ACC Champion Clemson (10-3) against Big East Champion West Virginia (9-3). Both of these teams had disappointing seasons for conference champions.  West Virginia certainly wishes it could redo a few of its games, especially the blowout loss to 5-7 Syracuse.  Clemson had that perplexing blowout loss to North Carolina State.  In losing to these teams, both foes showed that they can be shutdown completely.  At the same time, Clemson showed that it could beat tough teams, as demonstrated by wins over Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech.  West Virginia played LSU tough for a spell, but really lacks that quality win.  Prediction: Clemson 35 – West Virginia 27. 

Last, but certainly least, future ACC member Pittsburgh takes its 6-6 record into Birmingham to face 7-5 SMU in the BBVA Compass Bowl.  Pittsburgh has been in a state of coaching flux.  SMU was able to keep June Jones from wandering away.  Maybe Pitt can win this one to stick it to former coach Todd Graham, but the Confidential just does not see it.  Prediction: SMU 24- Pittsburgh 20.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
29 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Middle 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the middle 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.  Not to get cocky, but the Confidential is 2 for 2 so far, having predicted Missouri to defeat North Carolina by 11 (actual margin 17) and North Carolina State to defeat Louisville by 4 (actual margin 7).  While tonight will feature the final game of the first three, it is time to move onto the next three–the games of December 30 and 31.

On December 30, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) will travel to Nashville to take on Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) in the Music City Bowl.  As the .500 records suggest, neither team does a particularly outstanding job at anything.  Mississippi State is currently favored by 6.5 points, as perhaps the SEC pedigree is dictating Vegas.  After all, their losses were to stud teams LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn.  The problem is that their best win was against Louisiana Tech.  In contrast, Wake Forest stumbled to a season-opening loss at Syracuse in overtime (who was 5-2 at one point this year), but otherwise lost only to bowl teams.  And Wake Forest did beat Florida State and North Carolina State.  Edge to Wake Forest.  Prediction: Wake Forest 23-Mississippi State 21.

On December 31, Georgia Tech (8-4) faces off against Utah (7-5) in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.  You know what you are going to get from the Yellow Jackets.  About 300 yards of rushing and maybe 150 yards of passing.  Meanwhile, Utah has been outstanding against the run–giving up only 98 yards per game on the ground.  That is 8th in the nation.  Plus, the Utes will have several weeks to prepare for the Georgia Tech attack–something most teams do not get week-to-week.  But the bigger question is whether Utah can move the ball against Georgia Tech.  If Utah’s defense does what it can do, it will not need to score much to win.  Prediction: Utah 20 – Georgia Tech 14. 

On December 31, the final ACC game during the calendar year 2011 will involve Virginia (8-4) playing Auburn (7-5) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia.  Auburn has had its offensive woes this year as it transitions out of the Cam Newton era.  To be sure, they have to do that in the ever-difficult SEC.  Meanwhile, Virginia was only able to score 14 points in its final two games of the season against Florida State and Virginia Tech.  This has all the makings of a defensive struggle.  Maybe The Confidential is just a little too fond of Mike London.  This may be a case of having the ACC-Goggles on.  Prediction: Virginia 24-Auburn 14.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
28 Dec 2011

North Carolina State Takes Home the Belk

North Carolina State finished the 2011 season with an 8-5 record, after defeating Louisville in the Belk Bowl by a 31-24 score.   Junior quarterback Mike Glennon led the way for the Wolfpack, passing for 264 yards and three touchdowns.

The good game for Glennon was all the more necessary as Louisville was able to shutdown North Carolina State’s ground game.  James Washington was held to 45 yards on 16 carries.  But the passing attack allowed North Carolina State to jump out to a 21-10 lead at halftime.  TJ Graham was the other offensive star, converting 7 receptions into 116 yards and two touchdowns.  Of course, the defense did its part too, scoring on a 65-yard interception return in the third quarter to improve the score to 31-10.

Give credit to Louisville and its coach Charlie Strong.  The Cardinals rallied in the second half to narrow the score after relying on trick plays, such as a fake punt and onside kick.  And freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater made it interesting with his 274 yards passing and three touchdowns of his own.  But the damage was done in the first three quarters as North Carolina State got the big lead and held on to the victory.

For the Wolfpack, the season ends on a high note.  After being upset by Boston College, North Carolina State defeated Clemson, Maryland, and Louisville to finish with an 8-5 record.  That’s two bowl wins in a row, following last year’s defeat of West Virginia in the Champs Bowl.

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Game Review and tagged , , , , ,
17 Dec 2011

Good News for Maryland & Boston College Football

After tough 2011 football seasons, the Maryland Terrapins and Boston College Eagles received some good off-season news.   After finishing their seasons a combined 6-18, there was little to cheer about in 2011.  But the good news is thatnine of their football players were granted medical redshirts by the ACC conference.

For Maryland, four players will get a medical redshirt.  According to umterps.com:

Maryland was notified Friday by the Atlantic Coast Conference office that wide receiver Tyrek Cheeseboro, defensive back Matt Robinson, defensive lineman Isaiah Ross and linebacker Kenny Tate were approved for medical hardship waivers.  

The three defensive players began the season as starters for Randy Edsall.  Tate, pictured below, was an all-ACC player in 2012.

Meanwhile, the Boston College athletics website is reporting that five players were granted medical redshirts.  The websites noted that the following five players had their medical hardship waivers approved: Montel Harris, Kaleb Ramsey, Ifeanyi Momah, C.J. Jones and Connor Wujciak.  The big name on this list is Harris, as noted by Boston College:

Harris, a senior running back who was the 2011 ACC preseason Player of the Year, missed the first three games of the season, then played in two games (vs. UMass and Wake Forest), sustaining a season-ending knee injury against the Demon Deacons. Before his injury, Harris broke the BC all-time rushing record with a 26-yard rush in the fourth quarter. He will have one year of eligibility remaining.

For both programs, they need as many playmakers as possible in every season moving forward.  So this news is really some good news after otherwise dreary 2011 campaigns.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , ,
16 Dec 2011
1 Comment

Bowl Predictions: First 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the first 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Florida State.  Although it will still be a while before the ACC bowl season kicks off, it is still bowl season eve, as a few mid-majors will get things started on Saturday.  Without further adieu, here are the first thee predictions.

On December 26, the North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) will travel to Shreveport, Louisiana to take on Missouri (7-5).  This will be an interesting game as Missouri will bring the #11 rushing game in FBS into a game against the #14 rushing defense in North Carolina.  Something will have to give there.  If you look deeper at Missouri, you see a team that lost at Arizona State… and then to tough Big XII foes Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas State.  Not a bad loss there.  Of course, no great wins either.  Similarly, the Tar Heels really did not upset any team all year.  At the same time, all of their losses were to bowl teams.  There is not a lot jumping off the page in terms of distinguishing these teams.  The overall toughness of the Big XII suggests that Missouri will be more battle tested.  Prediction: Missouri 28-North Carolina 17.

On December 27, North Carolina State ambles into Charlotte for its Belk Bowl matchup against Louisville.  Both teams finished 7-5 on the season.  However, Louisville started the season 2-4, only to finish strong with a 5-1 second-half.  This also occurred right around the time that Louisville switched offensive coordinators and Freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater stepped up his game.  Louisville’s defense was very tough all year.  The teams had two common opponents.  Cincinnati beat North Carolina State 44-14, but only beat Louisville 25-16.  On the other hand, North Carolina beat Louisville 14-7, but lost to North Carolina State 13-0.  Charlie Strong has put together an outstanding coaching staff at Louisville and will have several weeks to prepare.  Still, the Confidential thinks that North Carolina State will end up with a de facto home field advantage.  And they were 6-1 at home this year, losing only to Georgia Tech.  Prediction: North Carolina State 24-Louisville 20. 

On December 29, Florida State and Notre Dame will square off in a rematch of some great battles of the 1990’s.  However, these aren’t your older brother’s Notre Dame and Florida State teams.  Both teams head to Orlando with 8-4 records.  Nevertheless, these are two of the so-called “Kings” of college football.  Florida State will present Notre Dame with a very stingy defense that is 6th in the country.  Where Florida State struggles is offense, slotting in the bottom half.  Notre Dame is just outside the top quartile in both of those categories.  This is a very tough game to predict, but Notre Dame’s propensity for turnover implosions seems like the deciding factor here.  Prediction: Florida State 21–Notre Dame 13.

These are three very tough games.  (Already got the excuses ready).  Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , ,
15 Dec 2011
3 Comments

Where Does Pittsburgh Football Go From Here?

As noted yesterday, Todd Graham fled Pittsburgh his head coaching position at Pittsburgh yesterday to take the same position for Arizona State.  The question is–where does Pitt go from here?

Before even addressing who the next coach should be, there is the business of anger management.  The blogosophere is none-too-pleased with Mr. Graham.  The folks over at Cardiac Hill did not hold anything back:

Now comes the hard part, Todd. The part where we part ways. Parting is such sweet sorrow, isn’t it? I’ll be watching you out in Arizona State, Todd. Don’t get me wrong – there’s no way I’ll root for one of your teams. You’ve joined my list of people I’ll love to see fail. That’s because, Todd, you’re the worst type of person.

You’re a fraud.

We don’t expect to hear back from you … unless it’s by email, that is.

So there’s that.  Meanwhile, other bloggers put the blame squarely on Pittsburgh athletic director Steve Pederson for what will now end up being four head coaches in one 12 month period (off in the distance, Nebraska fans are struggling to not say “we told you so”).

Next up is the question of who coaches Pitt in their upcoming bowl game.  It looks like defensive coordinator Keith Patterson will get that particular job.

Only after that does the question turn to who gets to be the head coach for the next 30 years 5 years 1 year.  Can Pitt get one full year out of a head coach before he gets arrested or flees?  Let’s hope so.  Here is an early list of potential candidates in no particular order or level of seriousness:

  • Jim Tressel.  Why not?  He is unemployed.  From the same general area.  Pitt is a AQ job and is headed to the ACC.  Seems like a good fit.  Except for that whole NCAA issue looming.
  • Dave Wannstedt.  Oh yeah, Pitt fired him.  Nevertheless, the fan base seems pretty interested in having him take over as A.D.  Interesting.
  • Tom Clements.  “Packers’ QB coach, long history in western Pennsylvania,” as per ESPN’s list of Penn State candidates.
  • Tom Bradley.  C’mon, Western Pennsylvania roots and zero.zero chance of being the Penn State head coach.
  • Johnny Majors.  You do the math.  Coached Pitt from 1973 to 1976.  Coached Pitt from 1993 to 1996.  Why can’t he coach from 2013 to 2016?  If only it was 2013.
  • Russ Grimm.  Former player and coach for the Arizona Cardinals.
  • Keith Patterson.  A solid bowl game win and who knows what happens.  A jilted team can get emotional and plea for an assistant to be hired full-time.  Right West Virginia?
  • Everyone else.  See this uber-exhaustive list prepared by a Pitt blogger.  The key names here are Paul Rhoads (Pitt coaching ties) and Mario Christobal (rising star in coaching).

This will be interesting to watch play out.  Will Pitt get cautious and make a very conservative selection?  Will Pederson feel the pressure mounting and make a splash by throwing a ton of money at a name?  Time will tell…

Posted by acaffrey in Football and tagged , ,
14 Dec 2011
2 Comments

Todd Graham to Leave Pitt for Arizona State

Todd Graham will leave Pittsburgh to become the new football coach at Arizona State.  According to ESPN, Graham has issued the following statement via text to his team:

“I have resigned my position at Pitt in the best interest of my family to pursue the head coaching position at Arizona State,” Graham said in a text message sent to players on the Pittsburgh team. “Coaching there has always been a dream of ours and we have family there. The timing of the circumstances have prohibited me from telling you this directly. I now am on my way to Tempe to continue those discussions. God Bless. Coach Graham.”

If so, this will force Pitt to endure a coaching change for two consecutive years (not to mention the whole Mike Haywood debacle).  Worse yet, this is not exactly a great market for head coaches right now.  As it is, Graham is somewhat of a consolation choice for the Sun Devils.

If true, the next question will be who should coach Pittsburgh.  Or who will?  One has to wonder if the Panthers will at least inquire about the availability of Jim Tressel?  Although he turned down Akron, Pittsburgh is nearby and a talent-rich area.  Also, with the looming move to the ACC, it might not be a bad way for the Sweater Vest to re-establish his image.  This is not even rumor though.  Just throwing it out there as an idea.  Beyond that, it is difficult to know where Pitt should turn.  Let the rumor mill get started.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , ,
12 Dec 2011

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 12, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 12, 2011:

1.  Syracuse–Not overly impressive in defeating Marshall, but an appropriately lopsided win over George Washington.  At 10-0, likely to be #1 in the nation.

2. North Carolina–At 8-2, the Tar Heels look to have righted things again.  The win over Long Beach State was closer than expected against even a battle-tested team.  Still, no reason to drop the Tar Heels yet.

3. Duke–Duke’s win over Washington was nice, but not enough to leapfrog North Carolina.  The Blue Devils are 9-1 on the season though.

4. Virginia–At 8-1, the Cavs had a light week this week.  But they took care of George Mason by 20 points.  No reason to drop them in the standings.

5. Pittsburgh–At 9-1, the Panthers have rebounded nicely from the loss to Long Beach State.  A very good win over Oklahoma on Saturday.

6. Virginia Tech–One of two 7-3 teams, the edge goes to the Hokies here.  They lost to a challenging Kansas State team, before rallying late in the week to beat Rhode Island and Norfolk State.

7. Florida State– The Seminoles are also 7-3, but remain in need of a quality win.  For now, this keeps Florida State behind Georgia Tech.

8.  North Carolina State–At 6-3, the Wolfpack will get their chance to make a move this week.  Syracuse visits on Saturday.

9. Georgia Tech–At 6-4, Georgia Tech had a nice rebound week by beating instate rival Georgia and instate foe Savannah State.

10. Maryland–At 5-3, Maryland is showing some life again.  The win over St. Mary was another step in the right direction.

11. Miami-At 5-4, Miami is reeling against tough competition.  Games against Memphis and West Virginia would be challenging for the top 5 teams in the conference, much less the Hurricanes.

12. Wake Forest– At 6-4, the Demon Deacons are a tough team to figure out.  After beating Texas Tech, there was hope that Wake could beat Seton Hall.  It was not to be.

13. Clemson–At 4-4, the Tigers last two losses were to South Carolina and Arizona.  They need an easier game soon to stop the current slump

14. Boston College--At 3-7, the only team in the ACC with a losing record.  For more on the Eagles, see this analysis.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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