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22 Sep 2016

ACC Football Rankings: Week 3-4

Each week, the Confidential will rank the top 15 teams (includes Notre Dame) in the A.C.C. and provide a brief explanation for the decision.  Feel free to list your own below or otherwise comment.  Here it goes for the week between Weeks 3 and 3:

  1. Louisville.  The Clemson win at Auburn was nice, but what Louisville did to Florida State was staggering.  The Confidential actually expected the Cardinals to win, but to win so convincingly was a surprise.  Again, Lamar Jackson is the real deal. Louisville needs to handle Marshall and not look forward to the game at Clemson in two weeks.
  2. Clemson.  Clemson finally started looking like Clemson.  Unfortunately, it was against an FCS opponent.  Clemson needs to get it together ASAP against an improved Georgia Tech squad that is 3-0 with wins over Boston College and Vanderbilt.  If Clemson is looking ahead to Louisville, there could be trouble.
  3. Florida State.  Logically, Florida State should drop substantially given that they have one loss, while a few ACC teams are still undefeated.  But the win against Ole Miss is still better than the wins that Miami< Georgia Tech, and Wake Forest have put up.  As bad as Louisville made the Seminoles look, we’ll leave them at #3. They travel to South Florida this week, the second straight week of playing a team on the road that just beat Syracuse on the road.
  4. Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets are 3-0, with wins over Boston College and Vanderbilt.  Nobody else below them in these standings has two wins over P5 teams (Louisville does, though).  If Georgia Tech can beat Clemson, they will be the early favorites in the Coastal.
  5. Miami.  Miami continues to win and is starting to make some noise about being an ACC contender.  The schedule strength is going to ramp up and we’ll learn a lot in two weeks when the Hurricanes make their ACC debut this year against Georgia Tech.
  6. Wake Forest.  Don’t look now, but the Demon Deacons are 3-0, and their next three opponents are @ Indiana, @ NC State, and home against Syracuse.  They still have Boston College, Army, and Virginia on the schedule.  It is not impossible for them to sweep all of these games en route to a 9-3 season, right?  We’ll see.  But better to be 3-0 than what the teams below have.
  7. Virginia Tech.  At 2-1, the Hokies have wins over Liberty and Boston College.  The latter was impressive, given that the Eagles defense is ordinarily quite stout and 49 points was surprising.  Still, it is “just” Boston College, so the Hokies are plugged in at #7.
  8. Pittsburgh.  At 2-0, Pitt had a real chance to make its mark against an Oklahoma State team that had lost to Central Michigan.  But the Panthers defense was not strong, allowing 45 points in a 45-38 loss.  For Pitt, this puts them squarely in the middle of these standings, and the team on their heels is, no pun intended, the Tar Heels–Pitt’s next opponent.
  9. North Carolina. The Tar Heels went to Illinois and won and then held serve against James Madison.  They get to host Pitt this week to battle for a more significant move up these standings.
  10. NC State.  NC State bounced back from the East Carolina loss to beat Old Dominion 49-22.  This puts them at 2-1 and the slight edge over what is likely a “better” Notre Dame team.  Of course, the Fighting Irish come to town on October 8, so this edge will have to be earned shortly.  Next up is Wake Forest, though.
  11. Notre Dame.  Notre Dame is 1-2, having lost to an improved Texas team and a solid Michigan State team.  Of the 1-2 teams, these are the two most impressive losses (so far, anyway).  Duke is up next.
  12. Boston College.  Boston College is 1-2, like Syracuse.  B.C.’s losses were to 2-1 Virginia Tech and 3-0 Georgia Tech.  The Eagles have a win over UMass, and FBS opponent.  This gives them the slight edge over Syracuse (and Duke).  Next up are Wagner and Buffalo–two good chances for wins.
  13. Syracuse.  The Orange “D” was atrocious against Louisville and not much better against South Florida.  After jumping out to a 17-0 lead, the Orange stopped moving the ball and stopped stopping the movement of the ball.  As Louisville and South Florida are better opponents than Wake Forest and Northwestern, Syracuse gets a clear edge over Duke for the #13 spot.  The FCS opponents favor Syracuse slightly too.  Up next, a chance for a win against similarly-talented UConn, albeit on the road.
  14. Duke.  Look, losing to Wake Forest at home is not the end of the world, but losing to a Northwestern team with losses to West Michigan and Illinois State is not great.  1-2 keeps them out of the basement, but Duke is trending down.  And Notre Dame is up next.
  15. Virginia.  The only 0-3 team–Virginia looked better against Oregon than Richmond, and looked much better against UConn.  Perhaps Virginia can pull out a few victories this year after all?  Well, with Central Michigan up next, you would think MAC opponent, but the Chippewas beat Oklahoma State on the road, which Pitt could not do.  We’ll see.

So, what do you think?  Should we have dropped Florida State farther?  Any other errors in your opinion?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , ,
18 Sep 2016

The Confidential’s College Football Top 25

Now that we are three weeks into the season, the time has come to start ranking all of the college football teams.  At this point, there is a solid basis to start fairly comparing and contrasting.  So here it is:

  1. Alabama.  At 3-0, the Crimson Tide has beaten two major programs in USC (badly) and Ole Miss (barely).
  2. Louisville.  While some teams have big wins, Louisville has only big wins, including a huge win over Florida State.
  3. Ohio State.  An argument for #2 could be made here, with a win over Oklahoma.  However, Houston has that same win.
  4. Houston.  See above.  Actually, given Houston’s win over Cincinnati, an argument could be made to slot them ahead of Ohio State.
  5. Clemson.  With a win over Auburn, only a pedestrian win over Troy hurts the Tigers.  This will resolve itself in short order, with games against Louisville and Florida State looming.
  6. Stanford.  With wins over Kansas State and USC, Stanford has only played good programs so far.  What else can you ask of the Cardinal?
  7. Michigan.  At 3-0, Michigan has not played anyone outstanding, but that win over 2-1 Colorado has to count for something.  UCF and Hawaii are certainly not FCS teams.
  8. Michigan State.  A win over Notre Dame is usually impressive, but it remains to be seen just how impressive.  With the only other win being Furman, Sparty can go no higher than #8.
  9. Washington. When your best win is Rutgers–who struggled early against Howard and narrowly defeated New Mexico–this is not going to get you far.  However, the Huskies have been dominant so far.
  10. Tennessee.  Style points are not there, but at 3-0 with a win over Virginia Tech anchoring things, the Volunteers sneak into the top 10.
  11. Georgia (3-0)
  12. Wisconsin (3-0)
  13. Texas A&M (3-0)
  14. Arkansas (3-0)
  15. Nebraska (3-0)
  16. Georgia Tech (3-0)
  17. Arizona State (3-0)
  18. Boise State (2-0)
  19. Florida State (2-1).  Losing to Louisville, and only Louisville, cannot be enough to be unranked.  Sorry.  Ole Miss has lost to FSU and Alabama, still that is two losses.  Oklahoma has lost to Ohio State and Houston–still that is two losses.
  20. Florida (3-0)
  21. Baylor (3-0)
  22. Miami (3-0)
  23. Central Michigan (3-0)
  24. West Virginia (2-0)
  25. Georgia Southern (3-0); Memphis (3-0); Indiana (2-0); Minnesota (2-0); Navy (3-0); San Diego State (3-0); South Florida (3-0); Toledo (3-0); Utah (3-0); Maryland (3-0); Wake Forest (3-0); Army (3-0); Western Michigan (3-0) (TIE–no undefeated team deserves to be left out of the top 25.. are we sure that Baylor is THAT MUCH better than Maryland or Wake Forest based on quality of opponents beat and 2016 only?  Of course not.  Only history makes us think that some 3-0 teams are better than others).

So there it is.  What do YOU think?

Posted by acaffrey in Rankings and tagged ,
14 Sep 2016
2 Comments

ACC Football Rankings: Week 2-3

Each week, the Confidential will rank the top 15 teams (includes Notre Dame) in the A.C.C. and provide a brief explanation for the decision.  Feel free to list your own below or otherwise comment.  Here it goes for the week between Weeks 2 and 3:

  1. Clemson.  The Tigers did not look impressive against Troy, barely winning 30-24.  Troy did win their first game, however, by 40+ points.  So maybe this is a better than expected Troy team.  Regardless, Clemson gets the nod here because of its win AT the Auburn Tigers, which is the best win of the top 3 teams.
  2. Florida State.  The Seminoles took care of its FCS opponent, Charleston Southern, 52-8.  Coupled with a win on a neutral site against Ole Miss, FSU is a clear #2.  Whether they keep it after this week is another story.
  3. Louisville.  As good as Louisville looked in beating Charlotte, they looked even better beating Syracuse.  But Syracuse is no Auburn or Ole Miss.  So Louisville will have to earn its surge up these standings on the field… which comes this week in a game against Florida State.  Lamar Jackson is the real deal.  The Louisville defense looks stout.  Not only is Louisville “capable” of winning, Louisville may actually take it to the Seminoles.  We’ll see.
  4. Miami.  Miami continued its parade of games against middling Florida opponents, beating Florida Atlantic, 38-10.  With Kaaya at QB, the Hurricanes get to keep their slot–even if the true tests do not come until later.
  5. Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets are 2-0, adding a win over Mercer to their resume.  Vanderbilt is up next–we shall see what happens.
  6. North Carolina. The Tar Heels went to Illinois and won–and, although Mac teams seem to do it every year–for a P5 team to win at a Big 10 school is always worthy of maintaining its spot in the standings.  So, we keep UNC here.
  7. Notre Dame.  Notre Dame beat Nevada, entitling it to also keep its place in the standings.  Next up for the Fighting Irish is Michigan State.  We’ll learn a lot about Notre Dame’s fortunes this week.
  8. Wake Forest.  Although most ACC power rankings had Wake Forest low, they had a win over Tulane, whereas other schools had wins over F.C.S. opponents.  Well, the Demon Deacons went to Duke and got another win.  At 2-0, with a win over Duke, Wake Forest deserves its #8 ranking all the more.  It stays ahead of Pitt by having a road win.  Not sure Penn State is any better than Duke.
  9. Pittsburgh.  5 teams were tied for #10 last week because they were 1-0 with a win against an FCS opponent.  only one pulled out a victory in Week 2, as the Panthers beat Penn State, albeit at home.  A win over Penn State has to be enough to put a 2-0 team ahead of a 1-1 team.
  10. Boston College.  Boston College is 1-1, with a loss to Georgia Tech and a win over UMass–an FBS opponent.  Despite the win, B.C. at 1-1 with a win over UMass simply cannot be atop Pitt with a win over Penn State.
  11. Virginia Tech.  There are 4 ACC teams at 1-1 with a win over an FCS foe only.  Of them, Virginia Tech lost on a neutral site to a top 15 team in Tennessee.  This is more impressive, or less unimpressive, than the other three teams combined loss/win characteristics.  Ergo, the Hokies get the nod.
  12. Syracuse.  The Orange “D” was atrocious against Louisville, but the Cardinals may make a lot of defenses look atrocious.  Compared to Duke losing at home to Wake Forest and NC State losing to East Carolina, Syracuse gets the #12 spot this week.
  13. NC State.  East Carolina may or may not be “better” than Wake Forest, but Duke lost at home, while NC State lost on the road.  Both teams were playing in-school opponents, but this loss just seems more understandable overall.  Edge to the Pack.
  14. Duke.  Look, losing to Wake Forest at home is not the end of the world, but it might just show that the Duke surge of recent years may be waning.
  15. Virginia.  The only 0-2 team–Virginia looked better against Oregon than Richmond.  Perhaps the Spiders are better than the Ducks?  Well, this happens from time-to-time.  At least there is some momentum for the Wahoos–who do have prior history to look at in terms of FCS losses and rebounds.

So, what do you think?  Should we have re-arranged Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville?  Are you finally ready to believe that Wake Forest is top 8?  

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , ,
08 Sep 2016
2 Comments

ACC Football Rankings: Week 1-2

Each week, the Confidential will rank the top 15 teams (includes Notre Dame) in the A.C.C. and provide a brief explanation for the decision.  Feel free to list your own below or otherwise comment.  Here it goes for the week between Weeks 1 and 2:

  1. Clemson.  The Tigers get the nod here because they did not fall way behind against Auburn.  That gives them a slight edge over Florida State.
  2. Florida State.  Again, Clemson looked slightly better in beating Auburn, but Florida State certainly dominated the second half.  Then again, the opposite happened in the first half.  These things will sort themselves out in due time.
  3. Louisville.  We are having some fun at Bobby Petrino’s expense, and others have REALLY taken him to task, but Louisville looked real, real good in beating Charlotte.  The Confidential may have under-valued Louisville by a win.  Still, need to take care of business against upstart Syracuse.
  4. Miami.  With a lot of teams beating FCS opponents, the nod has to go to a team beating an FBS opponent, even if a lesser opponent, but a substantial margin.
  5. Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets beat Boston College, but it is possible that “hapless” may end up being a modifier for Boston College this year.  Then again, the Eagles have a pathetically easy schedule.  So we’ll slot Ga Tech behind Louisville and Miami, but ahead of the other winners.  Also skeptical that Georgia Tech can stay here, while the above teams have more perceived staying power.
  6. North Carolina. This came down to a battle between Notre Dame and North Carolina for the 6th spot, with the Tar Heels taking the edge this week.  Georgia was primed for a victory under its new coach and had a home field advantage (despite a technically neutral location).  If UNC cannot topple Illinois, could be a big step back for the Tar Heels this year.
  7. Notre Dame.  Losing to Texas usually is not shameful.  Losing to Charlie Strong usually is not shameful.  But the recent struggles suggest otherwise.  Plus, Texas played Notre Dame last year, so there should have been some familiarity.  Edge to the Tar Heels.
  8. Wake Forest.  On the one hand, Wake Forest beat Tulane–a well coached team in the American.  On the other hand, Tulane’s not a defensive team and the Demon Deacons mustered only 7 points.  On yet another hand, Wake Forest BEAT an FBS foe.  SO we give them #8.
  9. Boston College.  If losing to Texas and Georgia are enough to keep UNC and Notre Dame above Georgia Tech, what about losing to Georgia Tech?  Well, B.C. just did not look good enough to inspire confidence.  But fair is fair.
  10. Pittsburgh/Virginia Tech/Syracuse/Duke/NC State.  Rather than try to separate them this week, we can just lump them together into one slot–as they all did what they needed to against FCS opponents.
  11. Virginia.  If beating an FCS foe is unimpressive, losing to one is disastrous.  Being blown out is indescribable.  The easiest ranking of the week is Virginia in last.

So, what do you think?  Should we have dropped Wake Forest and BC behind the FCS beaters?  Swapped Clemson/FSU?  Let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , ,
24 Aug 2016
4 Comments

A Quick Look at the ACC Schools’ Out-of-Conference Opponents

The Confidential has already done its over-under projections for each team in 2016.  In doing so, it became obvious that some ACC teams are scheduling tough, and some ACC teams are scheduling weak opponents.  Let’s take a closer look (bold games are rivalries or conference-dictated games with Notre Dame).

  • Boston College: UMass, Wagner, Buffalo, UConn
  • Clemson: Auburn, Troy, S Carolina State, South Carolina
  • Duke: NC Central, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Army
  • FSU: Ole Miss, Charleston Southern, USF, Florida
  • Georgia Tech: Mercer, Vanderbilt, Georgia Southern, Georgia
  • Louisville: Charlotte, Marshall, Houston, Kentucky
  • Miami: Florida A&M, Florida Atlantic, Appalachian State, Notre Dame
  • North Carolina: Georgia, Illinois, James Madison, Citadel
  • North Carolina State: William & Mary, East Carolina, Old Dominion, Notre Dame
  • Pittsburgh: Villanova, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Marshall
  • Syracuse: Colgate, USF, UConn, Notre Dame
  • Virginia: Richmond, Oregon, UConn, Central Michigan
  • Virginia Tech: Liberty, Tennessee, East Carolina, Notre Dame
  • Wake Forest: Tulane, Delaware, Indiana, Army

The Annual Greg Schiano Pansy Scheduling Award:

Boston College–after years of decent, tough scheduling, the Eagles decided to go to the opposite extreme with UConn being the toughest opponent.  Not a single P5 opponent, which is unique to the conference and earns this spot.

Runner-up: Wake Forest gets the nod by having Indiana on its schedule.  Do not sleep on Tulane under its new coach. Army is never a pushover either.

The To Be The Best, You Must Beat the Best Award:

Pittsburgh: After a great leap last year, the Panthers are looking to not only win the Coastal, but make playoff noise if they can win out.  Villanova is a tougher-than-normal FCS opponent.  Then, Penn State and Oklahoma State will be two huge out-of-conference tussles.  Marshall is no slouch either, especially for a late-season game.

Runner-up: North Carolina is taking on an SEC foe and a Big 10 foe (albeit Illinois).  Although Virginia Tech has Tennessee and Notre Dame, the latter was dictated by the ACC.  Credit to the Hokies, but UNC did its two major conference opponents 100% voluntarily.

The That’s Just How Champions Schedule Award:

Clemson (tie): With South Carolina at the back end of the schedule, Clemson still went ahead and scheduled Auburn at the front end.  When you are in the hunt for the playoffs year-after-year, only then does scheduling matter and Clemson is doing the right thing by having two SEC schools.  Not Clemson’s fault if South Carolina is/becomes a dumpster fire.

Florida State (tie): Florida State added Mississippi to Florida,  This may be an even tougher combination than Clemson’s.  Or it may not be.  Either way, credit to the Seminoles for scheduling tough, as a potential playoff team should.

If we had to rank the schedule difficulty, without regard to how the teams were scheduled, we would do it this way

  1. Florida State–USF as a third opponent trumps Troy
  2. Clemson–see above
  3. Virginia Tech–Tennessee and Notre Dame are two very difficult opponents for the Hokies
  4. Pittsburgh–Penn State and Oklahoma State are two very difficult opponents scheduled voluntarily, while Villanova and Marshall are local teams with the motivation to ruin Pitt’s season
  5. North Carolina–like Pitt, UNC had to get Georgia and Illinois on its schedule without the ACC’s help.  Still, it is only Illinois.
  6. Duke–the ACC forced Duke’s hand on Notre Dame, but Northwestern is a quality add.
  7. Georgia Tech–Georgia is an annual foe, but Vanderbilt is a second P5 school.
  8. Louisville–Kentucky is what it is… the Indiana of the SEC.  Houston will/should be very good. A very challenging schedule, on top of Clemson/FSU.
  9. Syracuse–usually at the top of this list, Notre Dame keeps Syracuse above many schools, while USF is a good AAC team.  Probably.  Neither USF or UConn are P5 teams.
  10. Virginia–Oregon will be tough, the remainder is not
  11. NC State–Notre Dame is tough, East Carolina is good.  William & Mary and Old Dominion?
  12. Miami–Notre Dame and little else, although App State is always capable of the upset, while the local schools will WANT to win badly
  13. Wake Forest–Indiana is what keeps Wake Forest out of the basement.  Pretty sad.
  14. B.C.–when UConn anchors your OOC schedule, you have made your path as easy as possible.  A team that upset USC a few years ago is capable of a little bit more challenge than this.

What do you think?  Did we get these awards/rankings right or wrong?

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Rankings and tagged , ,
04 Feb 2016
2 Comments

ACC Recruiting Recap

With another football letter of intent signing day passing by yesterday, the analysis begins.  The major outlets take their subjective weight given to players and look at how those players accumulated at schools.  If there was ever an example of “garbage-in, garbage-out,” it would be this task.  Nevertheless, throwing out all the subjectives, there is certainly some sort of correlation between “good recruiting classes” and results (except at Texas and Miami).  So here is what folks think of the 2016 football recruiting classes.

RIVALS

Here is the overall top ten listed at Rivals.  As you can see, Florida State and Clemson crack the top 25.

Rank School Total 5 Stars 4 Stars 3 Stars Avg Points
1
Alabama
 24 5 10 9 3.83 2885
2
Florida State
 25 1 18 4 3.72 2816
3
Ohio State
 24 2 15 7 3.79 2704
4
Michigan
 28 1 15 12 3.61 2603
5
Clemson
 22 3 10 6 3.59 2530
6
LSU
 23 0 15 6 3.57 2515
7
Mississippi
 24 2 10 12 3.58 2507
8
USC
 20 2 11 7 3.75 2429
9
Auburn
 21 2 11 6 3.62 2403
10
Georgia
 20 3 10 6 3.75 2387

As for all the ACC schools:

  • #2  Florida State-twitter seems to suggest a disappointment that this is not deemed the #1 class.  But the Seminoles would certainly prefer a national title over a recruiting rankings title.
  • #5 Clemson–in-state rival South Carolina was way down at #26.
  • #12 Notre Dame–between UCLA, Texas, and Florida makes sense.  Behind Mississippi does not.  And rival USC is a few spots up at #8, while Stanford is a few spots down at #18.
  • #22 Miami–Miami has never had trouble getting talent and this is a decent class for Mark Richt in just a few weeks.
  • #24 North Carolina–ahead of historical blue blood Nebraska, neighbor South Carolina, and current elite school Oregon.  Good things happening in Chapel Hill.
  • #30 Pittsburgh–Pitt has had good recruiting classes year after year–the benefit of being located in Pennsylvania, adjacted to Ohio, and next to both New Jersey and the D.C. Corridor.
  • #31 Duke–we are used to top classes in hoops, but the Blue Devils on-field success is translating into better football recruiting classes, including a class better than football stalwarts Wisconsin and Arkansas… and a top half class within the ACC.
  • #37 Louisville–a decent class, but Cards fans cannot like seeing Kentucky up at #28.  There is an SEC bias, to be sure, but who would have expected that?  Still, #3 in the Atlantic.
  • #43 NC State–squarely in the middle of the Atlantic at #4.  Ahead of Wake Forest, but behind Duke and UNC.  Ahead of Syracuse in the division, but behind Louisville.  Not good, not bad.
  • #49 Virginia Tech–as a ranking, this must be disappointing.  Houston, Northwestern, and Brigham Young should generally not out-recruit the Hokies.  Chalk it up to a new coach.
  • #57 Syracuse–being behind Washington State, Iowa State, and Indiana is ordinarily disappointing, but new coach Dino Babers worked some magic to get Syracuse above four other ACC schools in just a few weeks.
  • #62 Virginia–former coach Mike London was a good recruiter, and the coaching switch seemed to cost Virignia slightly.  Not much of a new coach bounce.  UCF, Temple, Vanderbilt, and Colorado State were among the schools to have better ranked classes.
  • #63 Wake Forest–hey, anytime the Demon Deacons avoid the basement, it is a good thing.
  • #68 Georgia Tech–having only 18 recruits hurts, but should Georgia Tech EVER be below Western Michigan in recruiting?  They do recruit for a system, though, and the system players usually suffer in the rankings.
  • #82 Boston College–sigh.  Only Kansas has a worse recruiting class among P5 schools.  Miami of Ohio has a better class.  But better than neighbors UConn and UMass.  And similar classes did not prevent BC from having a great defense.

What do you think?  Are you happy with your school’s class? Disappointed?  Dispute these RIVALS rankings?  Let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion, Rankings, Recruiting and tagged , , ,
17 Dec 2015
3 Comments

Learfield Sports Directors’ Cup Standings: ACC Dominating

The latest Division 1 Learfield Sports Directors’ Cup Standings have been released and the ACC continues to dominate, with Syracuse #1 and four schools in the top 10.

Here is a look at the top 10:

  1. Syracuse
  2. Stanford
  3. Virginia
  4. North Carolina
  5. UCLA
  6. Notre Dame
  7. Georgetown (actually, tied for 6th… but screw Georgetown)
  8. Michigan
  9. UConn
  10. Princeton

The other ACC schools with points so far are as follows:

  • Boston College #11
  • Duke #14
  • Florida State #19
  • Clemson #24
  • NC State #29
  • Wake Forest #40
  • Louisville #42
  • Virginia Tech #42

Miami, Pittsburgh, and Georgia Tech are not ranked due to not having points yet.

Congratulations to the ACC schools, especially those in the top 10, for making the ACC look good across a variety of sports so far this year!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Rankings and tagged , , , , ,
06 Oct 2015
2 Comments

The Confidential’s Correspondents’ Football Poll: October 6, 2015

Here is this week’s Confidential Correspondents Football Poll!  Still hard to differentiate a lot of these teams… even at the bottom.

13-15. Wake Forest (2-3); Virginia (1-3), and Virginia Tech (2-3)(0 points).  Welp, these three teams did not receive ANY votes.  Nothing to say, other than the obvious–only wins will change that.

12  Boston College (2-2)(5 points).  So far, BC has lost to undefeated Florida State and once-defeated Duke.  And somehow folks have Louisville, Georgia Tech, and North Carolina State ranked above them.

11. Georgia Tech (2-3) (7 points).  With losses to Notre Dame, Duke, and North Carolina, the Yellow Jackets difficult season is going even worse than expected.  No rest for the weary as they must travel to Clemson next.  With Florida State and Georgia on the schedule, bowl eligibility is not a certainty.

10. Miami (3-1, 9 points).  From 4 to 10, as the correspondents recognize that, once again, Miami is just not ready to return to prominence.  A loss at Cincinnati is not the end of the world.  But, needless to say, you are not a playoff team if you cannot beat ANY of the AAC teams on the road.  The idea of Miami as a football powerhouse is simply as obsolete as referring to DePaul as a basketball powerhouse.  An entire generation simply does not remember “the U” that way.

9. North Carolina State (4-1, 10 points).  We mocked NC State’s schedule.  Deep down, however, we wondered if they could be a very good football team.  The loss to 1-3 Louisville is more reasonable in real life than the records suggest.  With trips to Virginia Tech and Wake Forest (see above), this team could reach bowl eligibility by mid-October.

8. Pittsburgh (3-1, 13 points).  After Iowa’s upset of Wisconsin, the Pitt loss to the Hawkeyes is not looking nearly as bad.  And the Panthers welcome Virginia to town this week, a realistic chance at getting to 4-1.

7.  Louisville (2-3, 17 points).  Yes, two correspondents from Louisville lead to such things as the Cardinals being the only team below .500 in the top 10–and they are ranked #7 overall.  In fairness, the Louisville schedule was very frontloaded–with a back six of BC, Wake Forest, Syracuse, Virginia, Pitt, and Kentucky.  Much more daunting in hoops than the gridiron.  With Florida State up next in two weeks, Louisville may be 2-4 heading into that back half.

6.  Syracuse (3-1, 22 points).  Winston Wolf had a particularly relevant quote in Pulp Fiction about getting excited prematurely.  In other words, at 3-1, Syracuse has done exactly what was expected–even if Syracuse fans feared it might not happen.  Now it comes down to whether Syracuse can exceed expectations the rest of the way.  A trip to South Florida is the last OOC game and the first road game.  The Orange cannot afford to lose this game.

5. UNC (4-1, 23 points).  All of the sudden, North Carolina is making some serious noise in the Coastal.  There is a potential Duke-UNC showdown for the division title looming.  You know, just like ACC leadership expected when it added Miami, Virginia Tech, and Pittsburgh to that division.  Kudos to the Tar Heels for taking care of business so far.

4. Duke (4-1, 34 points).  The loss to Northwestern suddenly does not look so bad.  It was not an indication that Duke was retreating into irrelevance again.  Even better, Duke has a trip to Army coming up.  This will be a tough matchup…tougher than one might expect.  Duke’s defense will have to continue to carry the day.  So far, this has not been a problem.

3.  Notre Dame (4-1, 41 points).  The Fighting Irish played valiantly in Death Valley, but this team is not ready for the playoff.  Moreover, injuries are really starting to take a toll.  Still, this is a team that could very well get back to and stay in the top 10 all season long.  USC and Stanford are the only remaining ranked foes.

2. Florida State (4-0, 44 points).  Florida State has not really looked great in a few seasons now, right?  Seriously, has this team overwhelmed any competent opponent since the national title?  At the same time, the Seminoles’ record speaks for itself over that same span.  It will be interesting to see what FSU does with hapless Miami this week.  Will the Hurricanes out-effort FSU and stay in the game?  Or will FSU be up for the game and put its rival out if its misery early?

1. Clemson (4-0, 50 points, 5 first place vote).  Clemson beat Notre Dame.  In doing so, it made this poll very easy—as the Tigers were a unanimous #!.  No other position had unanimity.  But there are still 9 games standing between Clemson and the playoffs.  Some will be obviously difficult (FSU, South Carolina).  But it is games against desperate opponents–as in Georgia Tech this week–that has burst the Clemson bubble in years’ past.  Has Dabo Swinney eliminated this from the program?  We will see soon enough.

What do you think?  How do you rank these teams?

Posted by acaffrey in Correspondent Poll, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , ,
29 Sep 2015

The Confidential’s Correspondents’ Football Poll: September 29, 2015

Here is this week’s Confidential Correspondents Football Poll!  Still hard to differentiate a lot of these teams… even at the bottom.

13-15. Wake Forest (2-2); Virginia (1-3), and Pitt (2-1)(0 points).  It may not be fair for these teams to be at the bottom, but it is what it is.  Wake Forest has two wins, but two losses against Syracuse (3-1) and Indiana (4-0).  Pitt beat Akron (who may go bowling this year) and an FCS foe, with a loss to Iowa.  Virginia, meanwhile, has an FCS win and losses to three very good programs in UCLA, Boise State, and Notre Dame.  What would Duke’s record be with that schedule?  Or North Carolina State.  But it is what it is.

11-12.  Louisville (1-3) and Virginia Tech (2-2) (3 points).  These schools got some love from the correspondents, but perhaps this is more based on history than present performance.  Virginia Tech lost to Ohio State, but also lost to East Carolina–and the win over hapless Purdue is not too impressive.  Meanwhile, Louisville has played 3 FBS teams and lost to them all.  The history says do not count these teams out, but for now they are outside the top 10.

9.  Boston College (3-1) and North Carolina (3-1) (7 points).  These two teams tied in the poll.  They each looked good against seemingly top foes (Florida State and South Carolina, respectfully).  They each have looked good against lesser foes.  They both have wins over good Illinois teams–Northern Illinois and Illinois, respectfully.  In fact, Northern Illinois may even be the better team.  In any event, these two teams are half-way to a bowl game with 2/3 the season remaining.

8.  Syracuse (3-1, 10 points).  Syracuse lost–but moved UP in this poll.  The win over Wake Forest and the overtime win over Central Michigan did not impress anyone, but going toe-to-toe with LSU with a 5th string, walk-on QB apparently did.  Syracuse now has a week to rest to prepare for South Florida.  However, how will Syracuse play on the road in Tampa and then the next week at Virginia.  If they can sweep–that would be great.  Get swept?  Well, it will be bottom 3 for Syracuse.  Nobody expects the Orange to beat Clemson or FSU, but they need to win the winnable games.

7.  Georgia Tech (2-2, 14 points).  The Yellow Jackets are reeling, with consecutive losses.  The triple option has not been effective lately, and without a running game there is no offense.  With North Carolina coming to town, they will need to put up points.

6.  North Carolina State (4-0, 17 points).  The cupcakes are eaten, now it is on to reality for NC State.  First up is a Louisville team that cannot afford any more losses in the division.  In fact, with Florida State looming, there are only so many losses that Louisville can suffer at all if they want to go bowling.  Which will prevail–desperation for a win (Louisville) or desperation for respect after a win (NC State)?

5. Duke (3-1, 23 points).  The loss to Northwestern was a disappointment, he Yellow Jackets had a great opportunity against Notre Dame, but fell short.  However, they can still take home the Coastal title.  It all begins this week with a trip to Duke.  With Miami, UNC, and Virginia Tech looking good also, they will have to earn that particular title.  Next up?  @ Duke.

4. Miami (3-0, 28 points).  Miami has the nice win over Nebraska, but that is a bit questionable given Nebraska’s performance this year.  Up next is a midweek game against Cincinnati.  The Bearcats are a tough team to beat at home on a Thursday.  If Al Golden wants Miami to take the next step, they need to start winning these games.

3.  Florida State (3-0, 34 points).  Florida State looked pedestrian in beating Boston College.  Wake Forest is likely a step down from BC, but that has not stopped the Demon Deacons in the past.  Of course, in the two most recent contests, the Seminoles have destroyed them.  Can this Florida State team dominate for 60 minutes?

2. Notre Dame (4-0, 36 points, 2 first place votes).  Notre Dame won, but UMass was in the game for a bit longer than expected.  Now the Fighting Irish get to travel to Clemson and see what Death Valley is all about.  Notre Dame is getting a taste of what life might be like in the ACC permanently–with games at Florida State last year and Clemson this year.  Hopefully, we will see Notre Dame join full-time someday.

1. Clemson (3-0, 38 points, 2 first place vote).  Despite being idle, the Tigers have slightly more love from the Confidential correspondents.  With Notre Dame coming to town, this is a huge game for the Tigers and the ACC.  The winner will be talked about as a playoff team.

What do you think?  How do you rank these teams?

Posted by acaffrey in Correspondent Poll, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , ,
23 Sep 2015
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The Confidential’s Correspondents’ Football Poll: September 23, 2015

Here is this week’s Confidential Correspondents Football Poll!  Still hard to differentiate a lot of these teams… even at the bottom.

15.  Wake Forest (2-1, 0 points).  The Demon Deacons lose their QB, but find a way to win over Army.  Nobody thinks that Wake Forest is a top 10 ACC team though.  Maybe a win over Indiana will help a little?  Next up for Wake Forest?  Indiana.

14.  Pittsburgh (2-1, 2 points).  The Panthers almost beat Iowa on the road and drop in the standings?  Well that will happen at this point in the year.  Next up?  A bye.

12.  Boston College (2-1, 3 points) and Virginia (1-2, 3 points).  Boston College and Virginia have looked good in their defeats this year.  The wins, however, are exclusively against FCS teams–with BC’s being far more impressive.  Maybe it is the QB injury, but BC seems too low here.  Next up?  BC hosts Northern Illinois, while Virginia hosts Boise State.  Yikes.

11.  Duke (2-1, 5 points).  The Blue Devils were a great story the past few years, but the schedules have been favorable.  The loss to Northwestern shows that Duke may not be a fixture at the top of the Coastal.  These are games that division contenders must win–for themselves and for ACC statute.  Next up?  Georgia Tech.

10.  Louisville (0-3, 8 points).  Louisville has played a tough schedule so far.  But 0-3 is 0-3.  Kudos to the Correspondents for avoiding a knee-jerk reaction and placing the Cards at #15.  But is Louisville a top 10 team right now?  Not so sure.  Auburn looks pretty iffy.  Nor will a win this week alter that analysis much.  Next up: Samford.

9.  Syracuse (3-0, 9 points).  The Orange have used 4 Quarterbacks en route to 3 wins.  Granted, the schedule has not been daunting–but how many teams can say that?  The win streak certainly seems like to end this week with Louisiana State coming to town–but a healthy Eric Dungey for Syracuse might along be enough to send the Cuse bowling.  Next up?  LSU.

8.  Virginia Tech (2-1, 13 points).  The Hokies sole loss is to Ohio State–still #1 in the country.  Frank Beamer may not have a top 25 team, but Virginia Tech should not be counted out in the wide-open Coastal.  Next up? @ East Carolina.

7.  UNC (2-1, 14 points).  The Tar Heels took care of previously unbeaten Illinois, as expected.  Is this the year that UNC works its way into the Coastal title picture?  Marquise Williams could go a long way towards making that happen.  Next up?  Delaware.

6.  North Carolina State (3-0, 21 points).  North Carolina State seems entrenched in the #6 spot, #3 in the Atlantic.  The final cupcake on the OOC schedule is South Alabama–a road game.  A win here means that NC State can lose 6 of its last 8 games and go bowling.  That is an A.D. playing the game right.  Next up?  @ South Alabama.

5. Georgia Tech (2-1, 33 points).  The Yellow Jackets had a great opportunity against Notre Dame, but fell short.  However, they can still take home the Coastal title.  It all begins this week with a trip to Duke.  With Miami, UNC, and Virginia Tech looking good also, they will have to earn that particular title.  Next up?  @ Duke.

4. Miami (3-0, 34 points).  Miami got the needed win over Nebraska to get halfway to a bowl.  Miami has had decent OOC wins in recent years.  The key for Al Golden is to have a good conference schedule–say 5 wins.  Anything less than 8 wins and one has to wonder if Al Golden can take the team to the next step.  One also has to wonder if Miami would look at Steve Addazio in that circumstance.  Next up?  Bye.

3.  Notre Dame (3-0, 39 points, 2 first place votes).  The Fighting Irish have withstood injuries to get to 3-0.  They have the depth and the talent to keep winning.  But they also need to avoid a collapse like last year.  Until then, the Correspondents are very split on whether to believe in Notre Dame.  Next up?  UMass.

2. Florida State (3-0, 44 points).  The Seminoles, again, merely looked OK against Boston College.  It is hard to get a read on FSU this year.  A win is a win though, and that is what Jimbo Fisher’s team has been doing lately.  The tests will keep on coming though.  Next up?  Bye.

1. Clemson (3-0, 47 points, 3 first place vote).  A win over a desperate Louisville team that always plays its best football on Thursdays was impressive.  Clemson should be gaining confidence that the team can beat Notre Dame and, in turn, really move up in the national rankings.  Next up?  Bye.

What do you think?  How do you rank these teams?

Posted by acaffrey in Correspondent Poll, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , ,

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