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29 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Middle 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the middle 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.  Not to get cocky, but the Confidential is 2 for 2 so far, having predicted Missouri to defeat North Carolina by 11 (actual margin 17) and North Carolina State to defeat Louisville by 4 (actual margin 7).  While tonight will feature the final game of the first three, it is time to move onto the next three–the games of December 30 and 31.

On December 30, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) will travel to Nashville to take on Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) in the Music City Bowl.  As the .500 records suggest, neither team does a particularly outstanding job at anything.  Mississippi State is currently favored by 6.5 points, as perhaps the SEC pedigree is dictating Vegas.  After all, their losses were to stud teams LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn.  The problem is that their best win was against Louisiana Tech.  In contrast, Wake Forest stumbled to a season-opening loss at Syracuse in overtime (who was 5-2 at one point this year), but otherwise lost only to bowl teams.  And Wake Forest did beat Florida State and North Carolina State.  Edge to Wake Forest.  Prediction: Wake Forest 23-Mississippi State 21.

On December 31, Georgia Tech (8-4) faces off against Utah (7-5) in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.  You know what you are going to get from the Yellow Jackets.  About 300 yards of rushing and maybe 150 yards of passing.  Meanwhile, Utah has been outstanding against the run–giving up only 98 yards per game on the ground.  That is 8th in the nation.  Plus, the Utes will have several weeks to prepare for the Georgia Tech attack–something most teams do not get week-to-week.  But the bigger question is whether Utah can move the ball against Georgia Tech.  If Utah’s defense does what it can do, it will not need to score much to win.  Prediction: Utah 20 – Georgia Tech 14. 

On December 31, the final ACC game during the calendar year 2011 will involve Virginia (8-4) playing Auburn (7-5) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia.  Auburn has had its offensive woes this year as it transitions out of the Cam Newton era.  To be sure, they have to do that in the ever-difficult SEC.  Meanwhile, Virginia was only able to score 14 points in its final two games of the season against Florida State and Virginia Tech.  This has all the makings of a defensive struggle.  Maybe The Confidential is just a little too fond of Mike London.  This may be a case of having the ACC-Goggles on.  Prediction: Virginia 24-Auburn 14.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
29 Dec 2011
1 Comment

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 29, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 29, 2011:

1.  Syracuse (14-0)  Still rolling.  Destroyed a decent Seton Hall team in the conference opener.

2. North Carolina (12-2)  The Tar Heels don’t play a ranked team until February 8th against Duke.

3. Duke (10-1)  If Duke wins the next five, including games against Temple and Virginia, they have to move ahead of North Carolina.

4. Virginia (11-1)  The Confidential moved the Cavs ahead of Pittsburgh in the last rankings… and Virginia is now ranked in the polls too.

5. Virginia Tech (10-3)  An upcoming game against Oklahoma State is a rare in-season rematch against an OOC foe.

6. Florida State (8-4)  Loss to Florida was disappointing.  But Florida is really, really good this year.

7. Pittsburgh (11-3)  No excuse for loss to Wagner.  Even the loss at Notre Dame is a head shaker.

8.  North Carolina State (8-4) 2-0 since losing to Syracuse.  All winnable games for a few more weeks.  Need to keep the momentum going.

9. Maryland (8-3) Maryland rises another spot–the Terps have won FIVE in a row now.

10. Wake Forest (8-4)  A few wins in a row now against middling competition.

11. Miami (7-4) Played some tough opponents, but Miami needs to start stringing together wins.

12. Georgia Tech (7-5) Lost to Mercer was unacceptable.

13. Clemson (7-6)  Just not winning enough.  Got to win early in the season to have a chance.

14. Boston College (5-7)  Three in a row going into game against ranked Harvard.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Dec 2011

Conference Scheduling Arrangements–Not Likely for the ACC

Today’s news in college sports is that the Big 10 and Pac-12 have reached an agreement to have conference foes matchup in football every year beginning in 2017.  The arrangement in football will actually lag well behind the other sports, as the conferences hope to have basketball schools play each other next year.  The question, of course, is whether the ACC try to find a similar arrangement.  The Confidential is skeptical that the ACC will try to reach a similar cooperative plan with any other conference.

Unlike the Big 10 and Pac-12, the ACC does not have a conference that is a natural partner/rival.  If the ACC was to try to drum up a similar plan, the Confidential believes that the SEC could work.  While not too meaningful from a geographic expansion standpoint, the closeness of the locations of the schools would perhaps make it even more contentious. In fact, there are already several games featuring rivals from the two conferences.  And there are often games between schools from the two conferences.  So, perhaps the ACC and SEC could consider a scheduling arrangement that builds off of the natural rivalries already being played.

As an example, the ACC and SEC could plan to have games like this in a typical season:

  • Florida State: Florida
  • Georgia Tech: Georgia
  • Clemson: South Carolina
  • Duke: Vanderbilt
  • North Carolina: Tennessee
  • Wake Forest: Mississippi
  • North Carolina State: Texas A&M
  • Virginia: Arkansas
  • Virginia Tech: LSU
  • Boston College: Missouri
  • Syracuse: Kentucky
  • Maryland: Mississippi State
  • Miami: Alabama
  • Pittsburgh: Auburn

Those would be pretty competitive games.  It would also help ensure that the ACC trio of Florida State, Georgia Tech, and Clemson are not at a competitive disadvantage simply because their rivalries force them to play SEC schools.  While not everyone in the ACC can play an elite SEC school, a game against Kentucky or Mississippi State is more challenging than a Sun Belt or MAC opponent.

The detriment, of course, is that such agreements erode scheduling flexibility.  If you are Boston College, 8 or 9 conference games, plus the annual Notre Dame game and a mandatory SEC game would leave only 1 or 2 openings.

But there is an even greater reason for the ACC to eschew a scheduling arrangement like the Big 10 and Pac-12 have reached.  Money.  Both the Big 10 and Pac-12 have network agreements that give tangible incentives to expand the geographic scope of the network.  For the Big 10, it can expand into a new region–say New Jersey to take Rutgers–and reap the benefits of one new market.  Instead, it just gave everyone on the West Coast a reason to want the Big 10 Network.  If that’s the only way to see the big USC-Ohio State game, people will add the channel.

In contrast, the ACC and SEC have deals with ESPN that do not confer a direct benefit for expanding the footprint.  So, in the end, it is difficult to see the ACC trying to duplicate what the Big 10 and Pac-12 have done.  There is just not enough of an incentive to do it.  At least right now.  Time will tell.

What do you think?  Should the ACC try to set-up a scheduling arrangement?  If so, with what conference?

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , ,
28 Dec 2011

North Carolina State Takes Home the Belk

North Carolina State finished the 2011 season with an 8-5 record, after defeating Louisville in the Belk Bowl by a 31-24 score.   Junior quarterback Mike Glennon led the way for the Wolfpack, passing for 264 yards and three touchdowns.

The good game for Glennon was all the more necessary as Louisville was able to shutdown North Carolina State’s ground game.  James Washington was held to 45 yards on 16 carries.  But the passing attack allowed North Carolina State to jump out to a 21-10 lead at halftime.  TJ Graham was the other offensive star, converting 7 receptions into 116 yards and two touchdowns.  Of course, the defense did its part too, scoring on a 65-yard interception return in the third quarter to improve the score to 31-10.

Give credit to Louisville and its coach Charlie Strong.  The Cardinals rallied in the second half to narrow the score after relying on trick plays, such as a fake punt and onside kick.  And freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater made it interesting with his 274 yards passing and three touchdowns of his own.  But the damage was done in the first three quarters as North Carolina State got the big lead and held on to the victory.

For the Wolfpack, the season ends on a high note.  After being upset by Boston College, North Carolina State defeated Clemson, Maryland, and Louisville to finish with an 8-5 record.  That’s two bowl wins in a row, following last year’s defeat of West Virginia in the Champs Bowl.

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Game Review and tagged , , , , ,
21 Dec 2011

The Confidential’s Basketball Top 30 for December 21, 2011

With over 300 teams in college basketball, the top 25 is just not enough anymore.  Here is the Confidential’s Top 30 for December 13, 2011:

  1. Syracuse (12-0).  Survived North Carolina State and held off tourney perennial Bucknell.
  2. Ohio State (11-1).  Cruising along, even without Sullinger.  Conference play is here now though.  Indiana on Saturday.
  3. Kentucky (10-1).  So much talent.  Huge game versus Louisville in two Saturdays.
  4. North Carolina (10-2).  Really not too impressive to start the season.  If they lose to Texas tonight, going to have to drop them down to 10th place or so.  The benefit of the doubt is getting weaker.
  5. Duke (10-1).  A real tough schedule to begin the season, but December finishes without much of a test.  If Louisville beats Georgetown and Kentucky, they will be leapfrogged.
  6. Louisville (11-0).  The win over Memphis was nice, but not enough to jump over UNC or Duke.  Georgetown in 7 days though.  And then Kentucky.
  7. Missouri (11-0).  The Tigers are undefeated and have better wins than Baylor and Florida.
  8. Florida (9-2).  Big game against Florida State on Thursday.  Both teams need that win.
  9. Baylor (10-0).  Baylor needs a signature win to start leapfrogging teams ahead of it in the standings.  Not sure West Virginia is it.
  10. UConn (9-1).  That mystery loss to UCF remains perplexing.  The Big East schedule will sort things out.
  11. Georgetown (9-1).  The Hoyas need to take care of business against disappointing Memphis.
  12. Pittsburgh (11-1).  Conference play starts next week against Notre Dame.
  13. Kansas (7-3).  Brutal schedule and lots of good wins.  But need to beat Davidson to stay in the top 10.
  14. Xavier (8-1).  The suspensions hurt, but scoring 42 points against Oral Roberts?
  15. Marquette (10-1). Win over Wisconsin is nice, but losing to LSU is a red flag.
  16. Wisconsin (10-2).  Losses to UNC and Marquette hurt, but Wisconsin has rebounded with a win over UNLV.  And we now know that UNLV is very tough.
  17. Indiana (11-0).  Wins over Kentucky and Notre Dame now.  This team may be for real.
  18. Michigan State (10-2).  MSU may not be top 5, but they have only lost to the top 5.  10 in a row since then.
  19. UNLV (12-2).  Wins over North Carolina and at Illinois are very good signs.  Might be looking at the #3 or #4 seed in the West.
  20. Murray State (12-0).  May run the table.  Who is going to beat them?
  21. Harvard (9-1).  Like Murray State, hard to see where the next loss comes from.
  22. Illinois (11-1).  Once the Big 10 season kicks off, the real Illinois will reveal itself.  For better or for worse.
  23. Mississippi State (11-1).  The loss to Akron remains the only blip.  Some decent wins.
  24. Virginia (9-1).  Hard to tell on the Cavs, but the ACC schedule starting in January will tell the story.
  25. Michigan (9-2).  No shame in losing to Duke.  Still needs more good wins.
  26. Creighton (9-1).  Big game against Northwestern this week.
  27. Northwestern (10-1).  Big game against Creighton this week.
  28. San Diego State (10-2).  Only losses are to undefeated Baylor and 1-loss Creighton.
  29. Stanford (10-1).  Looking like the best of a down Pac-12.
  30. Minnesota (11-1).  Eleven wins is eleven wins.  We’ll see.

If the season ended today, all of these teams could be in the Big Dance.  Time will tell as to how it plays out though…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , ,
20 Dec 2011

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 20, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 20, 2011:

1.  Syracuse (11-0)  The win over North Carolina State gives Syracuse that coveted win in a true road game.  Up this week?  Bucknell and surprising Tulane.

2. North Carolina (10-2) Win over Appalachian State does not move the dial.  Coasted in the second half too.

3. Duke (10-1) No games last week.  No reason to move them up or down.

4. Virginia (9-1) Other than Syracuse, Virginia had the best win of the week by taking down Oregon at Oregon.  Enough to crack the top 25.

5. Pittsburgh (10-1)  Not really tested this past week.  Only a game against South Carolina State.

6. Virginia Tech (9-3)  Two wins over overmatched foes is not nearly enough to break into the top 5.

7. Florida State (8-3)  As with most ACC teams, the Seminoles had an easy week with two rather easy opponents.

8.  North Carolina State (6-4) The Wolfpack held their own against Syracuse for most of the game.  Syracuse was just too much in the end.

9. Georgia Tech (7-4) No wins of significance in the past week.

10. Maryland (6-3) Maryland is starting to string some wins together.  As the difficulty level increases, so to will Maryland’s rank here.

11. Wake Forest (7-4)  The Demon Deacons climb a spot after beating George Washington.  This was one of the more impressive wins of the week.

12. Miami (6-4) But it took overtime for Miami to hold off Florida Atlantic.  Not a good sign.

13. Clemson (6-4)  Beat up a few creampuffs to get to 6-4.  Could be worse. 

14. Boston College (4-7)  Things are getting better for the Eagles.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
19 Dec 2011

Weekend ACC Basketball Recap: December 19, 2011

While the big news of the weekend was Syracuse defending its #1 ranking on the road against North Carolina State, there were plenty of other noteworthy results.

On Saturday, Miami survived a double-overtime thriller against Florida Atlantic, 93-90.  The big news for Miami was the return of Center Reggie Johnson, who made his season debut after undergoing right knee surgery in June, and filled up the box score: 15 points, nine rebounds, five blocks and five assists.  Three other players chipped in 15 points or more for the Hurricanes, led by Kenny Kadji’s 21 points.  With the win, Miami nudges up to 6-4.

Surprisingly, the next closest game of the day on Saturday was #5 North Carolina’s 97-82 victory over Appalachian State.  To be fair, the Tar Heels jumped out to a 16-point lead at halftime and coasted to the win.  Tyler Zeller scored 31 points and added 10 rebounds.  North Carolina is now 9-2.

In other Saturday games, Clemson improved to 5-4 by defeating Winthrop 60-40.  Virginia Tech defeated Campbell 85-60 to get to 8-3 overall.  It should also be noted that future ACC member, #15 Pittsburgh, defeated South Carolina State 69-55.  The Panthers are now 10-1.

On Sunday, the ACC went 4 for 4.  The big game was Virginia’s 67-54 road victory over Oregon.  The Ducks went into the game with a 6-2 record, with losses to only BYU and Vanderbilt.  But the Cavaliers continued their good early season performance by holding Oregon to 42.6% shooting.  Virginia also dominated the boards, capturing a 39-24 edge.  Mike Scott led Virginia with 17 points and 13 rebounds.  Virginia is now 9-1 on the season and poised to move into the top 25.

Florida State improved to 8-3 with a 77-61 victory over Loyola Marymount.  Once again, the ACC team dominated the boards as the Seminoles crashed the boards for a ridiculous 49 to 32 edge.  The teams helped those numbers by shooting below average, 49 for 123 between the two teams.  Bernard James led the Seminoles with 17 points and 12 rebounds.

In other Sunday action, Wake Forest defeated Gardner-Webb 67-59 to get to 7-4.  And how about those Boston College Eagles, who got their fourth win on the season with a 20-point romp over Bryant, 75-55.  That’s two wins in a row.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
18 Dec 2011
1 Comment

#1 Syracuse Picks Up Win AT North Carolina State

In a preview of future ACC basketball games to come, the #1 Syracuse Orange traveled to North Carolina State on Saturday and left with an impressive 88-72 victory.  With the win, Syracuse assures itself of retaining the #1 ranking for at least another week.  More importantly, this team showed the country that it can respond well to adversity in a fairly hostile environment.  As the 2011 portion of the 2011-2012 schedule comes to a close, this Syracuse team is absolutely legit.

Of course, the big news leading up to the game was that Syracuse was playing its first true road game.  For whatever reason, media types do not hesitate to hammer on Syracuse for not playing enough “true road games” in December.  Perhaps the reason is that most Syracuse fans react as if their grandmothers were accused of being terrorists.  It is perfectly logical that a Big East team would hold back a bit on the out-of-conference scheduling because of the grueling nature of the Big East schedule.  That makes the Syracuse early season schedule a legitimate discussion point when weighing a December Syracuse squad against already battle-tested squads.  It is the nature of the beast more than a media conspiracy.

But the win over North Carolina State should put some of this debate to rest.  Syracuse was punched hard by North Carolina State hard in the first portion of both halves.  North Carolina State jumped out to a 12-4 lead to begin the game.  At the beginning of the second half, North Carolina State went on a crowd-fueled 17-3 run to start the second half.  The Wolfpack shot better than Syracuse, out-rebounded Syracuse, and had a 21-10 assist advantage.  And they still lost by 16.

The difference between the teams is that Syracuse’s 2-3 zone is manned by players who bring a defensive intensity that has not been matched in several years.  Syracuse forced 18 turnovers and was outstanding in converting them into points.  The Orange relied on turnovers and three-point shooting to go on a 20-0 run in the first half.  The Orange relied on turnovers and penetration with the dribble to finish the game on a 38-22 run.

As has become the pattern, Syracuse’s depth was also a significant factor.  While Brandon Triche was suffering from an off night, super-sub Dion Waiters stepped in to lead the team with 22 points.  Meanwhile, subs CJ Fair and James Southerland added 22 more points off the bench and used their length on the defensive end.  Meanwhile, senior starters Scoop Jardine and Kris Joseph scored 37 points, went 5 for 10 from three-point range, and added 9 rebounds.  You never know who is going to step up tallest for Syracuse.  When Triche and Fab Melo can have pedestrian games and it does not matter, that is impressive.

For North Carolina State, they will have to take solace in playing the #1 team closely for substantial portions of the game.  Senior guard CJ Williams certainly did his part, going 9 for 13 from the field en route to a career-high 25 points.  Point guard Lorenzo Brown led the team with 13 assists and 6 rebounds.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , , ,
17 Dec 2011

Good News for Maryland & Boston College Football

After tough 2011 football seasons, the Maryland Terrapins and Boston College Eagles received some good off-season news.   After finishing their seasons a combined 6-18, there was little to cheer about in 2011.  But the good news is thatnine of their football players were granted medical redshirts by the ACC conference.

For Maryland, four players will get a medical redshirt.  According to umterps.com:

Maryland was notified Friday by the Atlantic Coast Conference office that wide receiver Tyrek Cheeseboro, defensive back Matt Robinson, defensive lineman Isaiah Ross and linebacker Kenny Tate were approved for medical hardship waivers.  

The three defensive players began the season as starters for Randy Edsall.  Tate, pictured below, was an all-ACC player in 2012.

Meanwhile, the Boston College athletics website is reporting that five players were granted medical redshirts.  The websites noted that the following five players had their medical hardship waivers approved: Montel Harris, Kaleb Ramsey, Ifeanyi Momah, C.J. Jones and Connor Wujciak.  The big name on this list is Harris, as noted by Boston College:

Harris, a senior running back who was the 2011 ACC preseason Player of the Year, missed the first three games of the season, then played in two games (vs. UMass and Wake Forest), sustaining a season-ending knee injury against the Demon Deacons. Before his injury, Harris broke the BC all-time rushing record with a 26-yard rush in the fourth quarter. He will have one year of eligibility remaining.

For both programs, they need as many playmakers as possible in every season moving forward.  So this news is really some good news after otherwise dreary 2011 campaigns.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , ,
16 Dec 2011
1 Comment

Bowl Predictions: First 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the first 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Florida State.  Although it will still be a while before the ACC bowl season kicks off, it is still bowl season eve, as a few mid-majors will get things started on Saturday.  Without further adieu, here are the first thee predictions.

On December 26, the North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) will travel to Shreveport, Louisiana to take on Missouri (7-5).  This will be an interesting game as Missouri will bring the #11 rushing game in FBS into a game against the #14 rushing defense in North Carolina.  Something will have to give there.  If you look deeper at Missouri, you see a team that lost at Arizona State… and then to tough Big XII foes Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas State.  Not a bad loss there.  Of course, no great wins either.  Similarly, the Tar Heels really did not upset any team all year.  At the same time, all of their losses were to bowl teams.  There is not a lot jumping off the page in terms of distinguishing these teams.  The overall toughness of the Big XII suggests that Missouri will be more battle tested.  Prediction: Missouri 28-North Carolina 17.

On December 27, North Carolina State ambles into Charlotte for its Belk Bowl matchup against Louisville.  Both teams finished 7-5 on the season.  However, Louisville started the season 2-4, only to finish strong with a 5-1 second-half.  This also occurred right around the time that Louisville switched offensive coordinators and Freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater stepped up his game.  Louisville’s defense was very tough all year.  The teams had two common opponents.  Cincinnati beat North Carolina State 44-14, but only beat Louisville 25-16.  On the other hand, North Carolina beat Louisville 14-7, but lost to North Carolina State 13-0.  Charlie Strong has put together an outstanding coaching staff at Louisville and will have several weeks to prepare.  Still, the Confidential thinks that North Carolina State will end up with a de facto home field advantage.  And they were 6-1 at home this year, losing only to Georgia Tech.  Prediction: North Carolina State 24-Louisville 20. 

On December 29, Florida State and Notre Dame will square off in a rematch of some great battles of the 1990’s.  However, these aren’t your older brother’s Notre Dame and Florida State teams.  Both teams head to Orlando with 8-4 records.  Nevertheless, these are two of the so-called “Kings” of college football.  Florida State will present Notre Dame with a very stingy defense that is 6th in the country.  Where Florida State struggles is offense, slotting in the bottom half.  Notre Dame is just outside the top quartile in both of those categories.  This is a very tough game to predict, but Notre Dame’s propensity for turnover implosions seems like the deciding factor here.  Prediction: Florida State 21–Notre Dame 13.

These are three very tough games.  (Already got the excuses ready).  Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , ,

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