The Confidential

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ACC Basketball Rankings: December 20, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 20, 2011:

1Syracuse (11-0)  The win over North Carolina State gives Syracuse that coveted win in a true road game.  Up this week?  Bucknell and surprising Tulane.

2. North Carolina (10-2) Win over Appalachian State does not move the dial.  Coasted in the second half too.

3. Duke (10-1) No games last week.  No reason to move them up or down.

4. Virginia (9-1) Other than Syracuse, Virginia had the best win of the week by taking down Oregon at Oregon.  Enough to crack the top 25.

5. Pittsburgh (10-1)  Not really tested this past week.  Only a game against South Carolina State.

6. Virginia Tech (9-3)  Two wins over overmatched foes is not nearly enough to break into the top 5.

7. Florida State (8-3)  As with most ACC teams, the Seminoles had an easy week with two rather easy opponents.

8North Carolina State (6-4) The Wolfpack held their own against Syracuse for most of the game.  Syracuse was just too much in the end.

9. Georgia Tech (7-4) No wins of significance in the past week.

10. Maryland (6-3) Maryland is starting to string some wins together.  As the difficulty level increases, so to will Maryland’s rank here.

11. Wake Forest (7-4)  The Demon Deacons climb a spot after beating George Washington.  This was one of the more impressive wins of the week.

12. Miami (6-4) But it took overtime for Miami to hold off Florida Atlantic.  Not a good sign.

13. Clemson (6-4)  Beat up a few creampuffs to get to 6-4.  Could be worse. 

14. Boston College (4-7)  Things are getting better for the Eagles.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

The Confidential’s Basketball Top 30 for December 13, 2011

With over 300 teams in college basketball, the top 25 is just not enough anymore.  Here is the Confidential’s Top 30 for December 13, 2011:

  1. Syracuse (10-0).  Although Syracuse has not faced the same level of difficult opponents as some of the other elite programs, they have beaten Florida, Stanford, and Va Tech.  Big test at North Carolina State on Saturday
  2. Ohio State (8-1).  Losing to Kansas is nothing to be embarrassed about.  Doing it without your best player (perhaps the best player in the nation) makes it all the more reasonable.  Wins over Duke and Florida.
  3. Kentucky (8-1).  Again, losing to undefeated Indiana is not the end of the world here, especially for a team that has beaten North Carolina and Kansas.
  4. North Carolina (8-2).  There is no reason for a two-loss team to be this high in the standings.  But the rest of the undefeated teams have played far weaker schedules.  Wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State already.
  5. Duke (9-1).  Not many teams can lose by 20 and still be ranked in the top 5.  But Duke has beaten Kansas, Michigan, and Michigan State.
  6. Louisville (9-0).  Undefeated, but not the best grouping of wins.  Vanderbilt is decent though.  They get Memphis this weekend.
  7. Marquette (9-0). Like North Carolina, they have a win over Wisconsin.  Unlike North Carolina, no notable wins anywhere else.  Mississippi is probably the best.
  8. Kansas (7-2).  Losses to Kentucky and Duke hurt, but the Jayhawks already have wins over Georgetown, UCLA, and now Ohio State.
  9. Missouri (9-0).  The Tigers are undefeated and have wins over Villanova, Notre Dame, and California.  Not too shabby.
  10. Florida (7-2).  Like Baylor, Florida has 7 mediocre wins.  Unlike Baylor, they tested themselves in road losses to Syracuse and Ohio State.  Why punish the team that tries?
  11. Baylor (7-0).  Not going to reward Baylor for slotting them ahead of a team that schedules harder and has the same resume of wins.
  12. Xavier (8-0).  They have wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Butler, and now Cincinnati.  Unfortunately, having to play short-handed the next few games is not going to help.
  13. Georgetown (8-1).  Wins over Alabama and Memphis give Georgetown the edge over Big East foes.  Only loss is to Kansas.
  14. UConn (8-1).  Loss to UCF remains a head scratcher, but the Huskies now have wins over Harvard, Arkansas, and Florida State.
  15. Pittsburgh (8-1).  Loss to Long Beach State is even more curious, but Pitt is rebounding nicely.  Wins over Tennessee and Oklahoma State are good starts.
  16. Wisconsin (8-2).  Losses to UNC and Marquette hurt, but Wisconsin has rebounded with a win over UNLV.  We’ll learn more when Big 10 play starts.
  17. Indiana (9-0).  Win over Kentucky, last-second or otherwise, is that chip to merit a ranking.  Next up?  Notre Dame.
  18. Michigan State (8-2).  Rebounded nicely from the losses to UNC and Duke.  Wins over Florida State and now Gonzaga.
  19. Illinois (10-0).  Only test so far is Gonzaga.  Maryland is not the usual Maryland.
  20. Murray State (10-0).  Win at Memphis is nice.  They also have a win over Dayton.
  21. Mississippi State (9-1).  Nice wins over West Virginia, Arizona, and Texas A&M.  The loss to Akron is hard to explain though.
  22. Vanderbilt (6-3).  Losses to Louisville and Xavier are excusable.  Cleveland State???  What is going on in Ohio?
  23. Harvard (9-1).  Handled pretty easily by UConn.  The win over Florida State is the big one.
  24. Michigan (7-2).  No shame in losing to Duke.  Virginia was winnable, but ultimately a loss.  Best win is over Memphis.
  25. UNLV (7-2).  The win over North Carolina was huge.  The loss to Wisconsin on the road is understandable.  Looking forward to game against Illinois.
  26. Stanford (8-1).  Wins over North Carolina State and Oklahoma State.  Only loss was after giving Syracuse a run for its money in New York City.
  27. Alabama (8-2).  Losses to Georgetown and Dayton.  Wins over Wichita State and Purdue though.
  28. Northwestern (7-1).  Drubbed by Baylor, but nice wins over Seton Hall and Georgia Tech.
  29. Virginia (8-1).  Only decent win is over Michigan.  Time will tell on the Cavs.
  30. Mississippi (8-1).  Very bad loss to Marquette.  Decent wins over Miami and Drake.

If the season ended today, all of these teams could be in the Big Dance.  We will see how it plays out though…

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 12, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 12, 2011:

1Syracuse–Not overly impressive in defeating Marshall, but an appropriately lopsided win over George Washington.  At 10-0, likely to be #1 in the nation.

2. North Carolina–At 8-2, the Tar Heels look to have righted things again.  The win over Long Beach State was closer than expected against even a battle-tested team.  Still, no reason to drop the Tar Heels yet.

3. Duke–Duke’s win over Washington was nice, but not enough to leapfrog North Carolina.  The Blue Devils are 9-1 on the season though.

4. Virginia–At 8-1, the Cavs had a light week this week.  But they took care of George Mason by 20 points.  No reason to drop them in the standings.

5. Pittsburgh–At 9-1, the Panthers have rebounded nicely from the loss to Long Beach State.  A very good win over Oklahoma on Saturday.

6. Virginia Tech–One of two 7-3 teams, the edge goes to the Hokies here.  They lost to a challenging Kansas State team, before rallying late in the week to beat Rhode Island and Norfolk State.

7. Florida State– The Seminoles are also 7-3, but remain in need of a quality win.  For now, this keeps Florida State behind Georgia Tech.

8North Carolina State–At 6-3, the Wolfpack will get their chance to make a move this week.  Syracuse visits on Saturday.

9. Georgia Tech–At 6-4, Georgia Tech had a nice rebound week by beating instate rival Georgia and instate foe Savannah State.

10. Maryland–At 5-3, Maryland is showing some life again.  The win over St. Mary was another step in the right direction.

11. Miami-At 5-4, Miami is reeling against tough competition.  Games against Memphis and West Virginia would be challenging for the top 5 teams in the conference, much less the Hurricanes.

12. Wake Forest– At 6-4, the Demon Deacons are a tough team to figure out.  After beating Texas Tech, there was hope that Wake could beat Seton Hall.  It was not to be.

13. Clemson–At 4-4, the Tigers last two losses were to South Carolina and Arizona.  They need an easier game soon to stop the current slump

14. Boston College--At 3-7, the only team in the ACC with a losing record.  For more on the Eagles, see this analysis.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Hoops Recap: Sunday Improvement for the ACC

Yesterday, the ACC struggled to a 3-3 record among current conference teams.  Sunday got much better as the league went 4-0.

Florida State improved to 7-3 with a 75-60 over North Carolina-Greensboro.  The Seminoles’ defense did the job, allowing only a 35% shooting percentage.  However, the offense struggled to the tune of 26 turnovers.  Overall, Florida State has a balanced attack, with none of the 9 players to get action to exceed 30 minutes.  Michael Snaer led the way with 14 points.

Virginia Tech also improved to 7-3 with its 73-60 win over Norfolk State.  The score was a bit misleading, as CBS noted:

The Spartans (6-4), who have quality victories over Drexel and Texas Christian and lost to Marquette by just two points, kept the game close throughout and cut the lead to 65-59 on Chris McEachin’s 3-pointer with 2:58 left in the game. But Virginia Tech’s Dorenzo Hudson hit a free throw with 2:05 left to make it 66-59. After McEachin missed a 3-pointer for Norfolk State with 1:40 to go, Eddie put the game away, draining his final 3-pointer with 1:07 remaining to push the Hokies’ lead back to 10.

But the Hokies were able to fend off this surprisingly tough foe, led by Jarell Eddie’s 24 points.

In its final tune-up before hosting Syracuse on Saturday, North Carolina State defeated North Carolina Central, 65-60.  The Wolfpack held a 10-point lead at halftime, but were never able to put away the Eagles.  C.J. Williams led the way for North Carolina State with 21 points.  Credit the team board work too; although no individual put up gaudy rebounding totals, North Carolina State held a 41-30 advantage in that category.

Finally, the ACC’s day was so good that even Boston College nabbed a rare win.  The Eagles were able to defeat Stony Brook soundly, 66-51.   Patrick Heckmann came off the bench to lead Boston College with 18 points.  With the win, Boston College improves to 3-7.  A win is a win is a win.

Hoops Recap: Saturday Not Kind to the ACC

Although future ACC member Syracuse was able to win and likely grab onto to #1 in the next polls, the current ACC did not fare as well–splitting its 6 games on Saturday.

Actually, another future ACC member, #15 Pittsburgh, did its job with 74-68 win over 6-3 Oklahoma State.  As is typical, the Panthers were outstanding defensively and on the boards.  The Cowboys were held to 40.9% shooting and were outrebounded 37-23.  Ashton Gibbs led Pitt with 17 points, while Lamar Patterson was a box score stuffer with 12 points, 10 rebounds, and 7 assists.  With the win, Pitt moves to 9-1.

And #7 Duke certainly did its part, defeating a surprisingly tough Washington Huskies squad, 86-80.  Although the Blue Devils opened strong with a 14-point halftime lead, Washington made it interesting late.  This was particularly impressive as the Huskies had been in New York all week, starting with a Jimmy V Classic loss to Marquette.  But credit Duke for starting strong and doing enough at the free throw stripe down the stretch to win.  Duke had 7 players play 20 minutes, and 6 of them contributed at least 8 points.  Austin Rivers led Duke with 18 points, allowing Duke to get to 9-1.

Similarly, #4 North Carolina was able to fend off upstart Long Beach State, 84-78.  This one was the opposite of the Duke game, with Long Beach State controlling the first half before succumbing to the Tar Heels talent advantage in the second half.  While the knee-jerk reaction is to wonder how North Carolina was not able to destroy a 4-5 team from California, recall that Long Beach State upset Pitt on the road and only narrowly lost to Kansas too.  The North Carolina quartet of Harrison Barnes, John Henson, Reggie Bullock, and Tyler Zeller scored 78 of North Carolina’s 84 points.  But credit Kendall Marshall too–he dished out 16 assists, the fourth time this year he has had 14 assists or more.  North Carolina is now 8-2 on the season.

In a test game for Wake Forest, they lost to Seton Hall on the road, 68-54.  The Demon Deacons were unable to stop Herb Pope, who scored 26 points and grabbed 14 rebounds for the host Pirates.  While nobody was expecting a win over 9-1 Seton Hall, this game  certainly was not one where Wake Forest was going to be overmatched from a talent standpoints.  Overall, Seton Hall figures to little more than a middle-of-the-pack Big East team.  But that was still too much for Wake, which falls to 6-4.  Wake Forest was led by Travis McKie’s 17 points.

In another ACC-Big East matchup, West Virginia handled Miami, 77-66.  Bob Huggins’ Mountaineers were coming off a win over Kansas State on Thursday, but had enough in the tank to defeat the visiting Hurricanes.  Truck Bryant led West Virginia with 27 points, including 5 three-pointers.  Miami was led by Malcolm Grant’s 17 points.  Although the early season started with great promise, the Hurricanes have now lost 4 of 5 in this very tough stretch of non-conference games.  Fortunately for Jim Larranaga, the difficulty eases up a bit before conference games start.

Clemson provided the third loss for the ACC on Saturday, falling to 7-3 Arizona, 63-47 in Tucson.  For the 4-4 Tigers, a trip to 7-3 Arizona was always going to be quite a test.  Unfortunately, only Andre Young was able to score effectively, as he led the Tigers with 17 points.  The team as a whole shot 31.7% from the field–which will never get it done.

Finally, Georgia Tech defeated Savannah State, 65-45.  While the Yellow Jackets deserve credit for being willing to travel to an in-state opponent of this caliber, this was never going to be much of a contest.  Brandon Reed and Daniel Miller combined to go 12 for 13 from the field, as Savannah State was simply overmatched.  With the win, Georgia Tech gets to 6-4.

ACC Mens Hoops Teams Go 5 for 5 on Wednesday Night!

A week ago, the Confidential was lamenting a poor performance in the ACC-Big 10 Challenge.  A week later, things are looking a little better.  The ACC celebrated a perfect Wednesday, going 5 for 5.  You cannot do any better than that!

The #7 Duke Blue Devils improved to 8-1 with an 87-54 romp over Colorado State.  To be fair, Colorado State was probably distracted by wondering whether it was going to be selected to join the Big East.  After all, the Big East spent the day gobbling up teams nowhere near the East, but at least they are working on the “Big” side of the equation.  Returning to basketball, Duke was just way too much for Colorado State, shooting 56.4% from the field and holding Colorado State to 40.7%.  The Blue Devils had four players score in the teens, led by Freshman Austin Rivers with 17.  Duke will host the battled-tested Washington Huskies on Saturday.

In a rivalry game featuring two 4-4 teams , Georgia Tech was able to get a road win against Georgia, 68-56, avoid falling under .500 on the season.  This was a big win for Georgia Tech and new coach Brian Gregory (he of the growing Tom Izzo coaching tree) as the Yellow Jackets broke some historical futility in the process, as CBS noted that this was Georgia Tech’s first win at Georgia since November 26, 1976.  One can only wonder if then-President-elect Jimmy Carter was in town for the rivalry battle that year.  Kind of puts it in perspective.  All of Georgia Tech’s scoring came from 6 players, with reserve Jason Morris leading the team with 15 points.  The Yellow Jackets travel to Savannah State on Saturday.

Virginia Tech was able to defeat host Rhode Island, 78-67.  Credit the bench for this victory, as the reserves accounted for 44 of the Hokies 78 points.  They were led by Erick Green’s 24 points.  With the win, Virginia Tech is now 6-3.  They will host the Norfolk State Spartans on Sunday.

Although it was a little closer than desired, Maryland will take any wins it can get at this point, including their 77-74 win over Mount St. Mary’s.  The Terrapins benefited greatly from the charity stripe, converting 25 of 35 free throw attempts.  In contrast, Mount St. Mary’s only attempted 17 free throws.  Guard Terrell Stoglin led Maryland with 23 points.  Maryland gets a week off before hosting Florida International on Wednesday.  After a terrible start, Maryland is now sitting at 5-3.  It could be worse.

Capping off the ACC’s perfect night was an 87-83 victory for Wake Forest over High Point.  The Demon Deacons had to overcome a 35-point effort by High Point Guard Nick Barbour, who was not shy in launching 18 shots.  Along the way he converted 7 three-pointers.  But Wake Forest’s offense also came to play, with three starters–C.J. Harris (20), Tony Chennault (20), and Travis McKie (18)–combining for 58 points.  Wake Forest improves to 6-3 and will travel to Seton Hall on Saturday.  This will be a very tough game, as the Pirates are off to a somehow surprising 7-1 start.

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 5, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 5, 2011:

1Syracuse–Win over top 10 Florida keeps the Orange rolling at 8-0.  Fab Melo and Dion Waiters are much improved sophomores.

2. North Carolina–At 6-2, the Tarheels have lost twice.  Both were on the road in tough games.  The loss to Kentucky carries no shame.  Nice win over Wisconsin.

3. Duke–At 7-1, Duke has also beaten some good teams.  The 20-point loss to Ohio State is hard to ignore though.

4. Virginia–At 7-1, the Cavaliers finally got that nice win (over Michigan).  In fact, the Cavs were one of just 4 ACC teams to win their matchup against a Big 10 foe.

5. Pittsburgh–At 7-1, the Panthers are circling the wagons.  Tennessee is not a great team, but a good road win though.

6Miami–At 5-2, the win over UMass helps offset the loss to a very good Purdue team on the road.

7. Virginia Tech–One of four 5-3 teams, the Hokies get the edge based on the quality of losses–Syracuse (8-0), Minnesota (8-1), and Kansas State (5-0).

8. Florida State– At 5-3, the Seminoles have also lost to three very good teams in Harvard (8-0), UConn (7-1), and Michigan State (6-2).  Narrowly behind the Hokies in this regard.

9North Carolina State–At 5-3, losing at home to Indiana was a bit of a surprise.  Indiana is off to a good start at 8-0, but the Wolfpack need to protect home court.  Stanford and Texas are decent losses too.

10. Wake Forest– At 5-3, the Demon Deacons started the week well by defeating Texas Tech and Nebraska, but closed poorly losing to Richmond.

11. Clemson–at 4-3, with a decent win over Iowa and tough loss to South Carolina.

12. Georgia Tech–at 4-4, Georgia Tech gets the edge over Maryland based on the quality of the losses this week Tulane (9-0) and Northwestern (7-1).

13. Maryland–at 4-3, Maryland showed some life by beating Notre Dame, who is still reeling from the loss of Tim Abromaitis.  A positive sign that a surge may be on the horizon though.

14. Boston College--at 2-6.  Ugh.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Virginia Tech and Clemson BOTH Heading for BCS Bowls!

The bowl matchups are complete and BOTH Virginia Tech and Clemson are heading for BCS games this year.  The collective wisdom was that the ACC Championship was for the right to play in the Orange Bowl as the ACC’s sole BCS representative.  Nobody expected the loser, in this case Virginia Tech, to sneak in the backdoor and snare the at-large bid to the Sugar Bowl.  But that is exactly what happened–meaning a larger payout to the ACC.

Here are all the bowl matchups:

ORANGE BOWL, January 4, 2012

Clemson (10-3) vs. West Virginia (9-3) in a matchup of two excellent traveling fan bases who consider themselves overdue for a BCS appearance.

SUGAR BOWL, January 3, 2012

Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Michigan (10-2).  Only Clemson could beat the Hokies.  Can the Hokies stop Denard Robinson?

CHICK-FIL-A Bowl, December 31, 2011

Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5)

SUN BOWL, December 31, 2011

Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Utah (7-5)

MUSIC CITY BOWL, December 30, 2011

Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (6-6)

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL, December 29, 2011

Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

BELK BOWL, December 27, 2011

North Carolina St. (7-5) vs. Louisville (7-5)

INDEPENDENCE BOWL, December 26, 2011

North Carolina (7-5) vs. Missouri (7-5)

Notes:

  • With the Virginia Tech selection to the Sugar Bowl, the ACC was unable to fill all of its bowl slots.  The Military Bowl will now feature Toledo and Air Force.
  • Miami was bowl-eligible, but self-imposed a bowl ban due to possible NCAA rules violations.
  • Future members Syracuse and Pittsburgh battled for a bowl spot, with Pitt winning and earning the right to play in the BBVA Compass Bowl against SMU on January 7, 2012.

ACC Football Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  With only bowl games remaining, here is how we view the ACC football schools as of December 5, 2011:

1 Clemson–At 10-3, the Tigers lost more games than Va Tech, but beat the Hokies soundly.  Twice.  Without hosting them in either game.

2. Virginia Tech–at 11-2, Virginia Tech need not be ashamed of its season.  A Sugar Bowl bid as an at-large BCS team now awaits.

3. Virginia–of the three 8-4 teams, Virginia beat both of them.

4. Georgia Tech–at 8-4, the Yellow Jackets’ losses were to teams with a combined record of 35-13.

5. Florida State–at 8-4, the Seminoles losses were to teams with a combined record of 32-16.

6. North Carolina State–North Carolina State gets the edge here for beating North Carolina.

7. North Carolina–same 7-5 record as NC State, who shutout the Tar Heels.

8. Wake Forest–the same 6-6 record as Miami, but Wake Forest gets the edge here.  Wake Forest’s season was bookended by losses to Syracuse and Vanderbilt.

9. Miami–the same 6-6 record as Miami.  Too bad Miami’s season was sandwiched between losses to Maryland and Boston College.

10.  Pittsburgh–the win over Syracuse to get to 6-6 gives them the easy edge.

11Syracuse–second-half of season collapse drops them from 5-2 to 5-7 and outside the bowl picture.

12Boston College–rallied at the end.

13. Duke–made some strides

14. Maryland–the less said, the better.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

ACC Fairs Poorly in Day One of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge

Six games into the 2011-2012 ACC/Big 10 Challenge, the ACC has gotten off to a very poor start.  In fact, only two of the six games were won by ACC teams.

The most important game of the night was between #2 Ohio State and #3 Duke.  Ohio State jumped out to a 9-0 lead, and widened the score to 47-28 at the half.  The final result was a romp over the visiting Blue Devils, 85-63.  Four Ohio State players combined for 76 of those points, led by Jared Sullinger’s 21 points.  For Duke, this loss takes away the momentum from the great run in Maui.  In its first true road game of the year, Duke was utterly outplayed.

Virginia did salvage some respect for the ACC by defeating #14 Michigan at home, 70-58.  This legitimizes Virginia’s 6-1 start by adding that first quality win to the resume.  Things are looking up in Charlottesville.

Miami hoped to add a similar notch in its belt by traveling to Purdue.  However, the Boilermakers were just too much for the Hurricanes, winning 76-65. Miami fell to 4-2 on the season.

But not all home teams fared well.  Northwestern improved to 6-0 by defeating host Georgia Tech.  In fact, Northwestern dominated to the tune of a 76-60 score.  This may be the year for Northwestern to finally make it to the Big Dance.  For Georgia Tech, they drop to 4-3.

Illinois also notched a win over Maryland in College Park.  The Illini improved to 7-0 in the 71-62 victory.  Maryland is now a disappointing 3-3 as the post-Gary Williams era is off to a slow start.

Thankfully, Clemson was able to topple Iowa in the ACC’s sole road victory.  In fact, Clemson jumped to a 34-20 halftime lead and then coasted to a 71-55 record.  With the win, Clemson is now 4-2.  This was a much-needed win to help offset the two disappointing losses to College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina.

The day belonged to the Big 10 though.  Tomorrow’s big matchup, of course, is #9 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina.  The Tar Heels look to rebound from their upset loss to UNLV.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin is one of five Big 10 teams that is still unbeaten.  Florida State and Michigan State is another matchup to keep an eye on, even though both teams have started a bit slow due to tough schedules.

 

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