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25 Feb 2013
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The Confidential Correspondent Weekly Poll: February 25, 2013

If you are a football fan, check out the newly-released full ACC schedules.  But, as this is basketball season, here is the weekly Top 12, with 5 precincts reporting:

#1 Duke, 3 first place votes, 57 points.

#2 Miami. 2 first place votes. 55 pts.

#3 (tie) Louisville & Syracuse.  48 pts.

#5 Notre Dame. 39 pts.

#6 Pittsburgh. 35 pts.

#7 North Carolina. 30 pts.

#8 North Carolina State. 26 pts.

#9 Maryland. 19 pts.

#10 Virginia. 18 pts.

#11 Florida State. 8 pts.

#12 Clemson. 7 pts.

With a win over Miami, Wake Forest got a vote!  Good for the Demon Deacons.

Some huge ranges…. some voters had North Carolina as low as 9th.  Same with Pitt.  Other voters had both schools has high as #4 (Pitt) and #5 (UNC).  One voter dropped Syracuse to 6th, while another put Syracuse ahead of Duke.  And, no, it was not the Syracuse correspondent.

Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your top 12…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Correspondent Poll, Opinion, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
19 Feb 2013

The Confidential Correspondent Weekly Poll: February 18, 2013

With apologies to all, the Confidential is on the road.  Anyway, the votes for this weeks’ poll were submitted before the Monday games, but the Confidential was slow to issue the rankings.  Here they are for February 18, 2013:

  1. Miami  21-3  (5 first place votes)  81 points
  2. Duke 22-3 (2 first place votes)  79 points
  3. Syracuse 21-4   70 points
  4. Louisville 21-5   58 points
  5. Notre Dame 20-6  51 points
  6. Pittsburgh  20-6  49 points
  7. NC State  18-7   46 points
  8. North Carolina  17-8   35 points
  9. Virginia  18-7  31 points
  10. Maryland  18-7  24 points
  11. Florida State 14-11  13 points
  12. Clemson 13-12   9 points

None of the bottom four received votes.  In case you were wondering.

If there standings were to be replicated in 2015, it would mean that 5 of the top 6 teams were formerly in the Big East.  Are the ACC’s veteran teams going to stand for that?

 

The poll continues to be variable between #4 and #8.  Louisville was the most consistent team in that spot, with all votes putting them 4th, 5th, or 6th.  No other school from #4 to #8 had that small a range.

 

What do you think?  How is the poll good or bad?

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Correspondent Poll, Opinion, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
14 Feb 2013
3 Comments

Rutgers Very Nervous: Big 10 Will Not Schedule FCS Games

According to Barry Alvarez, or more accurately according to CBS Sports quoting Alvarez, the Big 10 will no longer schedule games against FCS schools.  The most immediate reaction is extreme nervousness in Rutgers.  However, Rutgers has perfected the art of scheduling crappy FBS teams, so the need for panic is overblown.

For fun, let’s just look at Rutgers’ history in the Big East era (stats courtesy of http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/Rutgers.htm#2012).  From 1993 to 2000, Rutgers record was a well below-average 24-63. But at least there are some decent OOC opponents each year, such as Penn State, Notre Dame, and Texas.  In fact, one year–1999–featured Texas, California, and Wake Forest, three major conference opponents.  There were three seasons where Rutgers took on two major conference opponents, 1993, 1995, and 2000.  Not that Duke is that strong an opponent, but it’s still reasonable.

But then in 2001, a scheduling philosophy emerged–cupcake city.  From 2001 to 2011, the BEST OOC opponents scheduled by Rutgers for each season were as follows:

  • 2001: A 1-10 California team
  • 2002: Tough schedule–Tennessee and Notre Dame
  • 2003: Michigan State
  • 2004: Michigan State
  • 2005: Navy (only BCS foe was Illinois)
  • 2006: North Carolina
  • 2007: Maryland
  • 2008: North Carolina
  • 2009: Maryland
  • 2010: North Carolina
  • 2011: North Carolina
  • 2012: Arkansas

Thus, between 2003 and 2011, the toughest opponent Rutgers faced was some combination of North Carolina, Michigan State, Maryland, and Navy.   But it is not like Rutgers was scheduling in quantity, with three BCS foes.  Instead, for the most part, it was Army and Navy that would provide the more difficult 2nd and 3rd games.  The rest of the schedule would be MACtion and FCS.  Not surprisingly, playing these soft schedules led to a historical surge in wins.

Sure, you say… the Big East was too strong for Rutgers to schedule tough.  Really?  In 2002, equally inept Temple scheduled South Carolina and Oregon State.  Pitt scheduled Notre Dame and Texas A&M.  Boston College scheduled Stanford and Notre Dame.  West Virginia scheduled Wisconsin and Maryland.  Syracuse scheduled Auburn and North Carolina.  Virginia Tech scheduled LSU and Texas A&M (in addition to rivalry game against Virginia).  Miami scheduled Tennessee and Florida (in addition to rivalry game against Florida State).

OK, perhaps you can rationalize that because that was the older, tougher Big East.  Fast forward to 2007.  Rutgers OOC slate was Maryland (6-7), Buffalo (MAC), Navy (8-5), Army (3-9), and Norfolk State (FCS).  In contrast, Syracuse scheduled Washington, Illinois, and Iowa.  Pitt scheduled Michigan State and Virginia.  Louisville had Utah, Kentucky, and NC State on the slate.  UConn–just making the move to FBS–scheduled Virginia and Duke.  South Florida challenged itself with North Carolina and Auburn.  Cincinnati had a weak schedule too, with only Oregon State having any relevance. West Virginia had Maryland and Mississippi State.  Again, if Rutgers was not the weakest schedule, it was second weakest to only Cincinnati.

2012?  With the recent success, surely Rutgers would have taken on some tough opponents?  Nah.  Rutgers deserves credit for scheduling a trip to Arkansas–the first game against an arguable king of college football since 2002.  But the rest of the schedule was Tulane, Howard, Kent, and Army.  Wow.  Again, the other Big East schools were way ahead of Rutgers.  Temple could not get a 5th OOC game, but still found room for Penn State and Maryland.  UConn missed a bowl, but scheduled North Carolina State and Maryland.  Pitt had Virginia Tech and Notre Dame on the slate.  South Florida faced local kings Miami and Florida State.  Syracuse had an incredible Northwestern, Minnesota (road), USC (neutral), and Missouri (road).  Cincinnati was weak–with only Virginia Tech being a tough foe.  Finally, Louisville had North Carolina and Kentucky.  Again, Cincinnati is the only school providing Rutgers competition for weakest schedule.

While the Big 10 shifts away from FCS games, Rutgers will still be able to sprinkle in the MACtion and Army/Navy games.  At least playing a Big 10 schedule will provide some toughness.  Although Penn State’s sanctions and Maryland’s woes mean that the two rivals will be well-below par.  But at least Rutgers will see what it is like to play multiple football kings in a single season.  It has not happened much in the past 20 years and almost never in the past dozen.  Winning is impressive, but only when you beat good teams too.  Going big time might mean a return to small time win totals.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
12 Feb 2013
11 Comments

Conference Realignment–ACC Needs to be Wary of History Repeating Itself

Frank the Tank has a new entry for your perusal.  In this latest blog entry, the opinion is that Fox, rather than ESPN, is responsible for the demise of the Big East.  The Confidential disagrees.  Moreover, the Confidential cannot help but think that the ACC needs to be very wary of the destruction of the Big East to prevent, to the extent possible, the demise of our great conference.

As a preliminary matter, there is no doubt that Fox’s entry into the sports networking landscape has been a contributing factor.  If nothing else, the partnership with the Big 10 has dramatically altered the college sports landscape.   Fox’s role in conference realignment is obvious.

But the demise of the Big East began long before the loss of Rutgers, Maryland/Louisville, Notre Dame, and the Catholic-7.  Rather, the demise began with the loss of Pittsburgh and Syracuse.  And, really, the loss of Pittsburgh and Syracuse began with the inability of ESPN and the Big East to negotiate a restructured deal.  While ESPN was willing to ride the Longhorn Network into town to save the Big XII, ESPN did not bother to do anything to save the Big East from demise.  Rather, it allowed (directed?) it’s partner, the ACC, to take two of the Big East’s most valuable properties–Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  Even if Fox was behind every other move that decimated the Big East (see West Virginia, TCU, Maryland, and Rutgers), the reality is that ESPN never stepped up to the plate to save the Big East.

As ESPN continues to lose the rights to major college programs, one wonders if ESPN is going to go the route of MTV.  Once, MTV showed videos… with an occasional non-video show sprinkled in.  At some point, MTV stopped showing videos.  And it’s been decades since this author has cared about MTV.  Every pass through revealed less about “music” and more about reality TV.  Presumably, MTV is still profitable and pleasing to its owners.  Is ESPN going to follow suit and devote more resources to news & shows where reporters yell at each other?   It certainly runs contrary to the prevailing logic that live sports are among the best television products out there because people cannot fast forward through the commercials.

In any event, the question that begs is whether ESPN will step up to the plate to “save the ACC.”   ESPN helped save the Big XII.  But, with every program that moves from the ACC to the Big XII or Big 10, ESPN will lose the exclusive rights to that school.  And one wonders whether Fox will be content to allow ESPN to share in the Big XII and Big 10.  If this is a business battle between Fox and ESPN, Fox seems to be winning.  The Big East was “collateral damage” in that battle.  The ACC needs to ensure that ESPN does not view the ACC as collateral damage.  It is unclear exactly what the ACC can do… but at least being wary of ESPN and history repeating itself is a very small step one.

What do YOU think?  Is ESPN working for or against the ACC these days?


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Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
11 Feb 2013

The Confidential Correspondent Weekly Poll: February 11, 2013

Note: This poll was completed prior to Monday evening’s games. We apologize for the late publication. We DO NOT apologize for the ranking for your team.

#1 Miami. 3 first place votes. 68 pts.

#2 Duke. 2 first place votes. 67 pts.

#3 Syracuse. 1 first place vote. 62 pts.

#4 Notre Dame. 46 pts.

#5 Louisville. 45 pts.

#6 NC State. 44 pts.

#7 Pittsburgh. 38 pts.

#8 North Carolina. 30 pts.

#9 Virginia. 27 pts.

#10 Maryland. 19 pts.

#11 Florida State. 13 pts.

#12 Georgia Tech. 5 pts.

Clemson and Wake Forest also received votes.

Agree? Disagree? Feel free to share your top 12…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Correspondent Poll, Opinion, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
04 Feb 2013

The Weekly Confidential Correspondent Poll: February 4, 2013

Well, the ballots were distributed to the Confidential’s correspondent pool.  With 5 precincts reporting, here is the top 12 for the ACC as of February 4, 2013:

1.  Duke (3 first place votes)     58 points

2.  Miami   (2 first place votes)   55 points

3.  Syracuse    47 points

4.  Notre Dame   41 points

5.  Louisville   40 points

6.  NC State   35 points

7.   Pittsburgh   32 points

8.  North Carolina   29 points

9.   Maryland  21 points

10.  Virginia   19 points

11.   Florida State  11 points

12.  Clemson  3 points

Notes:

Clemson edged Wake Forest 3-2, to land the coveted 12th spot in the standings.

The correspondents are starting to both believe in Miami and question Syracuse.  Nobody had Duke below #2.

Speaking of Syracuse, the Orange and Fighting Irish face off on Monday for the much desired number three spot in the poll.  Syracuse needs a win badly.

Louisville, Pitt, and NC State are a solid number 5 through 7, but the Tar Heels at 8 and only a few points behind them is surprising.

Maryland is only narrowly ahead of Virginia.  Unfortunately, Maryland does not have any ACC rivals, or they would be even better.  Bring on Rutgers and Iowa!

One half of the top 8 continues to be Big East.  Maybe the ACC is not helping football enough, but the basketball improvement will be obvious.  Of course, all four went to bowl games too.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
02 Feb 2013

ACC Hoops Weekend–1st Weekend of February 2013

As we draw ever closer to March madness, the weekends become more and more important for ACC basketball fans.

Saturday, February 2, 2013:

#6 Syracuse suffered only its second loss in 30 conferences games last Saturday.  With an injury to Dajuan Coleman, the Orange are down to seven scholarship players.  They travel to Pittsburgh for a nooner, who narrowly lost to Louisville on Monday.  Going to be a great matchup.

But the big game of the day has to be #14 Miami @ #19 North Carolina State.  These are the two teams to beat DePaul.  Meanwhile, Miami has won 8 straight.  Tune in at 4:00 p.m. for this one.

Another big game is #5 Duke at Florida State.  The Confidential still cannot figure out why the Seminoles are struggling.  But as Duke looks to continue its post-Miami blowout rebound, the Seminoles are going to need to play to their potential.

Notre Dame heads into Chicago to face struggling DePaul.  At 17-4, the Irish are looking to get back into the national rankings.  DePaul has lost 5 straight and is 10-10.

At noon, Virginia Tech faces off at the Dean Dome against North Carolina.  The Hokies are at 11-9, meaning the bubble–as in NIT bubble.  Perhaps they should not have made the coaching change?  Meanwhile, the Tar Heels are a mere shell of their normal selves at 14-6.  Good for some teams, subpar for UNC.

Another nooner is Clemson at Boston College.  The Tigers need every win they can get, while Boston College’s 5-game streak shows that this year will have to be about moral victories (again).  2012-2013 has been better than 2011-2012, as an example.  Clemson MUST win this game.

The final Saturday game is Maryland hosting Wake Forest.  While the Terps are busy spending their future Big 10 riches, Wake Forest is busy…. well, doing very little.  Both teams need to right the ship as they enter the game on two game losing skids.

Sunday, February 3, 2013:

The folks over at Frank the Tank see Virginia and Georgia Tech as the two schools likely to head to the Big 10.  After all, the Big 10 is collecting markets that do not succeed on the field/court.  In any event, these two programs face off at 3:00 pm on Sunday, allowing their fans to avoid most of the pre-game Super Bowl show.  Here is a question… who has a better defense in terms of points-per-game… Virginia basketball or Georgia Tech football?  You can look it up.

The other Sunday matchup is a pair of schools that are fleeing the Big East… Marquette and Louisville.  Both schools are ranked (Louisville at #12/#13, Marquette at #25) and have only four losses.  This should be a very good one.


Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
01 Feb 2013
15 Comments

A Doomsday Scenario For the ACC–MrSEC Provides One

In the blogosphere, Mr. SEC is not someone to throw stuff at the walls.  And it is not happening here.  But the blog does have an article about how the Big XII and SEC could work together to kill off the ACC as a viable 5th big conference.

Part of the premise is that if the Big XII took Florida State, Louisville, Clemson, and Georgia Tech (along with say Miami and ND as a partial member for football), it could engage the SEC with a scheduling agreement.  That way the Florida, Kentucky, South Carolina, and Georgia schools would continue playing each other, while Missouri-Kansas, Texas-A&M, etc., could be renewed.  The question that begs is who that helps?  The in-state rivalry games are going to happen.  The difference between calling them “out-of-conference” and “out-of-conference, but part of the scheduling agreement” is minimal.  That still only leaves a certain number of games for other opponents.  In the meantime, we’d never get to see Florida-Texas or LSU-Florida State, because Florida-FSU would be playing every year in the “alliance game.”

This is not to say that the Big 10, Big XII, and SEC could not figure out a number of ways to divide up the ACC.  The bottom line is that being Syracuse and Wake Forest right now is not fun.  Not much room for private schools in the top 4 conferences.  So a viable ACC is needed to sit at the adults table.  At least BC and Pitt occasionally show up elsewhere in some doomsday scenarios.

Really, unless the ACC moves to a Grant of Rights, the expansion issue is going to loom.  Otherwise, the Big XII has a relative strength advantage over the ACC.  And that makes the ACC a target.

What is your opinion?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , , , ,
28 Jan 2013

The First Weekly Confidential Correspondent Poll: January 28, 2013

Well, the ballots were distributed to the Confidential’s correspondent pool.  With 5 precincts reporting, here is the top 12 for the ACC as of January 28, 2013:

1.  Duke  (2 first place votes)   56 points

2.  Syracuse (1 first place vote)   54 points

3.  Miami (2 first place votes)  49 points

4.  North Carolina State   44 points

5.  (tie) Notre Dame and Pitt  37 points

7.  Louisville  30 points

8.  Virginia   25 points

9.  Maryland   23 points

10.  North Carolina 17 points

11. Florida State  11 points

12. Clemson  6 points

Notes:

Georgia Tech was placed #12 on a ballot each, but Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and Boston College did not crack anyone’s top 12.  Sorry to those teams.

It is clear that name value still matters, as Duke and Syracuse suffered losses but stayed in the top 2.  Meanwhile, not everyone is persuaded that Miami is for real.  Was it just a hot January?  We’ll see.

North Carolina State is generally #4 or #5 in each poll.  It gets interesting thereafter, with the teams very hard to place.  Is Louisville the team that was ranked #1 in the country or the one that has lost 3 in a row?  What are Notre Dame, Pitt, and Maryland REALLY?  And it is odd to see North Carolina so low.  But do its rivals really care?  Enjoy the middle of the pack.  Virginia could find itself several places higher soon enough. 

Anyway, what do YOU think.  Does Duke still deserve the #1 spot?  Does Syracuse?  Miami?  Someone else?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Jan 2013

Weekend Hoops Review: January 28, 2013

As we draw ever closer to March madness, the weekends become more and more important for ACC basketball fans.  Here are the questions posed before the games, as well as the answers.

Games from Saturday, January 26, 2013:

How will Duke respond to its 27-point loss to Miami this week?  We’ll find out when they take on 15-4 Maryland today.  Expect Coach K’s team to rebound at home–but if they lose???   Wow–what a tough week.

Well, Duke rebounded.  Not literally, as Maryland outrebounded the Blue Devils 42-31.  Duke figuratively rebounded, defeating Maryland in convincing fashion, 84-64.  Freshman Rasheed Sulaimon led the Blue Devils with 25 points, but it was a team effort…offensively and defensively.  With the win, Duke improves to 17-2 overall and 4-2 in conference play.  Despite the loss, Maryland is still 15-5, albeit with a 3-4 conference record.

With apologies to others, today’s North Carolina-North Carolina State game is the best of the day.  NC State is 15-4 and ranked #18.  North Carolina is 13-5 and unranked.  Really, North Carolina is closer to the bottom of the ACC than the top right now–if you count the future members.  You know NC State wants to do to the Tar Heels what Miami did to Duke.

Our NC State correspondent was cautiously optimistic, but it was the caution that was the mistake.  The Pack jumped out to a 45-26 lead at halftime, and then coasted to a 91-83 victory.  Three players had double-doubles: CJ Leslie (17 points, 10 rebounds), Richard Howell (16 points, 14 rebounds), and Lorenzo Brown (2o points, 11 assists).  Oh, and two other players scored in double figures too.  With the win, State has now beaten Duke and UNC, and sits at 5-2 in conference play. 

Louisville’s loss to Syracuse was understandable.  Louisville’s loss to Villanova was far less so.  No rest for the weary as the #5 Cardinals head to Georgetown today.  A win–and the ship is back on course.  A loss?  And now you’ve got a 3-game losing streak.  Can Rick Pitino get his team focused?  We’ll see.

Uh-oh.  Louisville lost again.  Offensively inept Georgetown defeated the Cardinals 53-51, making it three-straight losses for Rich Pitino’s squad.  At the very least, Louisville is not being dominated by teams.  It took a tip-in for this loss.  Needless to say, however, Louisville needs to right the ship fast.  And the schedule does not let up–with Pitt on Monday, as well as games against Marquette, St. Johns, and Notre Dame in the next two weeks.

#3 Syracuse travels to Villanova.  If Villanova can pull another upset, that would be quite a week for the Wildcats.  Syracuse has been treading water, but needs to take care of business today.

The Orange had been playing with fire in the games without James Southerland, and it finally came back to haunt them, losing to Villianova in overtime, 75-71.  Without Southerland, foul trouble cost Syracuse two of its bigs in regulation.  33.3% from the field did not help either.  But don’t feel sorry for Syracuse, they are 18-2 overall and 6-1 in conference play.  They have won 28 of their last 30 Big East regular season games too.

#24 Notre Dame leaves the snow to head to Florida to take on South Florida.  The Bulls are better than most think, but at 10-8 aren’t doing themselves any favors.

The Fighting Irish improved to 16-4 overall by toppling the Bulls, 73-65.  With Villanova, Syracuse, and Louisville on the schedule in the next two weeks, Notre Dame needed to win this winnable game.  

At 16-4, Pitt has hardly been awful this year.  They get to host DePaul today to get that 17th win.

Pitt utterly destroyed DePaul, 93-55.  This puts the Panthers at 17-4 overall and 5-3 in conference play.  Are they back?  Not sure a win over DePaul can provide any answers about that.  We’ll see how it goes against Louisville, Syracuse, Cincinnati, and Marquette over the next 5 games.  

Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are both hovering at .500 overall.  Georgia Tech is on a 5-game losing streak and needs a win badly.

Georgia Tech got its first conference win of the year, beating up on Wake Forest, 82 to 62.  The Yellow Jackets jumped on the Demon Deacons, racing to a 52-29 lead at halftime.  Georgia Tech was due, if not overdue, for a win, so let’s give them credit for doing so in convincing fashion.  Wake Forest drops to 3-4 in conference play.

At 13-5, Virginia is having a nice, but unspectacular season.  They cannot afford to lose to 9-9 Boston College, obviously.

Despite trailing at halftime, Virginia rallied in the second half to put Boston College away, 65-51.  For the Wahoos, this means avoiding a very ugly loss on the resume.  This also improves them to 14-5 overall and 4-2 in conference play.

Games on Sunday, January 27, 2013:

If only these were football games.

11-7 Virginia Tech travels to 10-8 Clemson for a 1:00 p.m. matchup.  These teams are not likely to be dancing in March, but they need wins to keep NIT hopes alive.

Clemson moved to 11-8 with a 77-70 victory over the now 11-8 Virginia Tech Hokies.  Senior Milton Jennings had his best game ever, with 28 points and 14 rebounds.  He also had four blocks and was an amazing 16 for 18 from the foul line.  Meanwhile, Virginia Tech has lost two in a row and is only 2-4 in conference play.    

At 14-3 overall and 5-0 in conference play, Miami looks to build off its utter destruction of #1 Duke this week.  A win over disappointing Florida State would be a nice rivalry win, as well as a reason to move Miami up substantially in the polls.  The ACC wisely chose to feature this game as its 6:00 p.m. Sunday game.  The Battle for Florida is on.

Miami destroyed Florida State, 71-47, to move to 6-0 in conference play.  At 15-3, Miami is due for a substantial rise in the polls.  Is it an understatement to say that hiring Jim Larranaga was a good idea?  Meanwhile, Florida State continues to struggle… now 3-3 in conference play and 11-8 overall.  

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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