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#21 Virginia Defeats LSU, Improves to 13-1

At the beginning of the year, the ACC only had two ranked teams–Duke and North Carolina.  Virginia has climbed into the rankings with a solid November and December.  Virginia’s January got off to a great start, as the #21 Cavaliers traveled to Baton Rouge to defeat LSU, 57-52, to improve to 13-1.

This game was a very close, defensive struggle as both teams shot less than 45% from the field.  It was tied at halftime, 26-26.  And, with five minutes to go, the Cavs trailed 47-46.  But Virginia was fairly clutch down the stretch with its free throw shooting and three-point shots to pull off the victory.

Virginia was led by Sammy Zeglinski’s 17 points.  Joe Harris added 14 points, while Mike Scott had 12 points and 9 rebounds.  Virginia opens the ACC schedule on Saturday against Miami.

Speaking of Miami, the ended the out-of-conference schedule with a 99-89 win over North Carolina-Greensboro.  Kenny Kadji scored led Miami with 30 points and 12 rebounds.  Three other Hurricanes finished in double-digits in scoring.

But the rest of the ACC fared poorly. Wake Forest lost some significant momentum by losing to Wofford, at home, 56-52.   Wake Forest had won 3 in a row and was looking to get its 10th overall win.  With the loss, Wake drops to 9-5 as it heads into conference play.

Meanwhile, Boston College continued to cement its position as the cellar-dweller in the ACC, losing to Rhode Island in double-overtime, 78-72.  The Eagles dropped to 5-9 with the home loss to the Rams (who improved to 3-12).  It’s going to be a very long season for Boston College.

The Confidential’s Basketball Top 30 for January 2, 2012

With over 300 teams in college basketball, the top 25 is just not enough anymore.  Here is the Confidential’s Top 30 for January 12, 2012:

  1. Syracuse (15-0).  One of only four unbeatens.  Travel to Providence before hosting scrappy Marquette on Saturday.  Marquette has had Syracuse’s number lately.
  2. Kentucky (13-1).  Loss to Indiana hurts, but rallied to beat Louisville.  Next test is Saturday against South Carolina.
  3. North Carolina (13-2).  No real tough games for a while.  Duke will be tested more often over the next few weeks.
  4. Duke (12-1).  Ready to leapfrog North Carolina with a few more wins.  Upcoming game against Temple is a start.
  5. Missouri (13-0).  The Tigers are undefeated and have better wins than Baylor.  That will not last forever, but that is how it is right now.
  6. Baylor (13-0).  The Big XII will separate the men from the boys.  Soon enough Baylor and Missouri will sort things out.
  7. UConn (12-1).  12-1 and rolling.  UConn has improving Seton Hall and up-and-down Rutgers this week.
  8. Michigan State (13-2).  Win over Indiana was big.  So far, only two losses are to North Carolina and Duke.
  9. Indiana (13-1).  Only loss was to MSU–at MSU.  Wins over Kentucky and Ohio State are very nice.
  10. Ohio State (13-2).  Loss to Kansas short-handed and lost to Indiana (just like Kentucky did).  Some nice wins too.
  11. Georgetown (12-1).  Watch out  for the Hoyas–young players that are starting to get on a roll.
  12. Kansas (10-3).  Kansas could go up and they could go down.  The feeling is that they are not staying right here though.
  13. UNLV (15-2).  Impressive wins over UNC and Illinois.  No shame in losing to Wisconsin or Wichita State.
  14. Louisville (12-2).  Two losses in a row–even to Georgetown and Kentucky–cause a drop in the standings.  This is about right for the Cards.
  15. Harvard (12-1).  Only loss is to UConn.  The teams behind them cannot say that–all have at least one head-scratcher.
  16. Murray State (14-0).  Likely to be the last team to get a loss.  It’s going to take one heck of an upset.
  17. Marquette (12-2).  Gets the nod here by virtue of beating Wisconsin head-to-head.  Had “one of those games” against Vanderbilt.
  18. Wisconsin (12-3).  Loss to Iowa is a perplexing.  Wisconsin was on a mini-roll.
  19. Mississippi State (13-2).  Had a chance to really climb, but fell to still-undefeated Butler.  Only game this week is Arkansas.
  20. Florida (10-3).  Losses to Syracuse and Ohio State were reasonable.  Rutgers?  Not so much.
  21. Virginia (12-1).  If they can get to 14-1, things will look better.  LSU beat Marquette.  Miami will give them a game.
  22. Michigan (12-2).  If they can get to 14-2, they will leapfrog Virginia and others.  That would require beating Indiana and Wisconsin!
  23. Creighton (11-2).  Hard to figure–suffered an upset loss, but then rebounded with an upset win over Wichita State.  Parity.
  24. San Diego State (12-2).  Not challenging itself right now.  Hard not to win.
  25. Kansas State (11-1).  They have Kansas and Missouri this week.  Tough week.
  26. Gonzaga (11-2).  Only losses were to Michigan State and Illinois.  Win over Xavier looked better than it does now.
  27. Seton Hall (12-2).  Losses to Syracuse and Northwestern.  #4 RPI so far.
  28. Virginia Tech (11-3).  Two wins over Oklahoma State, plus they gave Syracuse their best test so far this year.
  29. Purdue (12-3).  Realistically, could and should be higher.  A tough January will allow Purdue to prove same.
  30. Stanford (12-2).  Only losses were to Syracuse and Butler.  This team will only get better too.

Tell us what you think.  How would you differ?

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 2, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of January 2, 2012:

1Syracuse (15-0)  Still rolling.  #1 in the country and just picked up a win in Chicago over DePaul.

2. North Carolina (13-2)  The Tar Heels are still winding their way through a weak part of the schedule.

3. Duke (12-1)  Temple and Georgia Tech this week.  The OOC is almost over.

4. Virginia (12-1)  Things are looking good for the Cavs.  12-1, with conference play on the horizon.

5. Virginia Tech (11-3)  Great win over Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Wake Forest looms this weekend.

6. North Carolina State (10-4) 4-0 since losing to Syracuse.  One more OOC to plod through before the conference games start.

7. Maryland (9-3) 6 wins in a row, with Cornell up next.

8. Florida State (8-5)  Loss to Florida was disappointing.  Lost to Princeton is a serious blow.

9. Pittsburgh (11-4)  Another loss.  Wheels are starting to fall off here.

10. Wake Forest (9-4)  Record is nice, but the level of opponents is just not there.

11. Miami (8-4)  The Hurricanes need to do some damage in early conference play.

12. Georgia Tech (7-6) The wheels have fallen off.   This team is too good to be struggling at .500.

13. Clemson (8-6)  13th, but a lot of room to move up.  Clemson may be better than a few teams ahead of them.

14. Boston College (5-8)  Still in the cellar.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Bowl Predictions: Final 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the final 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Clemson, Virginia Tech, and future member Pittsburgh.  So far, the Confidential is 3-1, correctly predicting the results on all but the Wake Forest game.

On January 3rd, the Sugar Bowl will feature Virginia Tech (11-2) and Michigan (10-2).  This game will be a battle between the explosive running attack of the Wolverines and the stingy rushing defense of Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech was able to bottle up Georgia Tech earlier in the year.  However, Michigan was able to move the ball against a good Nebraska defense.  Neither team had an extraordinarily difficult schedule.  The Hokies will be playing without their kicker, which might make a difference if this comes down to a low-scoring game.  Giving the Hokies defense this much time to prepare is the difference.   Prediction: Virginia Tech 21-Michigan 16.

On January 4th, the Orange Bowl will put ACC Champion Clemson (10-3) against Big East Champion West Virginia (9-3). Both of these teams had disappointing seasons for conference champions.  West Virginia certainly wishes it could redo a few of its games, especially the blowout loss to 5-7 Syracuse.  Clemson had that perplexing blowout loss to North Carolina State.  In losing to these teams, both foes showed that they can be shutdown completely.  At the same time, Clemson showed that it could beat tough teams, as demonstrated by wins over Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech.  West Virginia played LSU tough for a spell, but really lacks that quality win.  Prediction: Clemson 35 – West Virginia 27. 

Last, but certainly least, future ACC member Pittsburgh takes its 6-6 record into Birmingham to face 7-5 SMU in the BBVA Compass Bowl.  Pittsburgh has been in a state of coaching flux.  SMU was able to keep June Jones from wandering away.  Maybe Pitt can win this one to stick it to former coach Todd Graham, but the Confidential just does not see it.  Prediction: SMU 24- Pittsburgh 20.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Bowl Predictions: Middle 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the middle 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.  Not to get cocky, but the Confidential is 2 for 2 so far, having predicted Missouri to defeat North Carolina by 11 (actual margin 17) and North Carolina State to defeat Louisville by 4 (actual margin 7).  While tonight will feature the final game of the first three, it is time to move onto the next three–the games of December 30 and 31.

On December 30, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) will travel to Nashville to take on Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) in the Music City Bowl.  As the .500 records suggest, neither team does a particularly outstanding job at anything.  Mississippi State is currently favored by 6.5 points, as perhaps the SEC pedigree is dictating Vegas.  After all, their losses were to stud teams LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn.  The problem is that their best win was against Louisiana Tech.  In contrast, Wake Forest stumbled to a season-opening loss at Syracuse in overtime (who was 5-2 at one point this year), but otherwise lost only to bowl teams.  And Wake Forest did beat Florida State and North Carolina State.  Edge to Wake Forest.  Prediction: Wake Forest 23-Mississippi State 21.

On December 31, Georgia Tech (8-4) faces off against Utah (7-5) in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.  You know what you are going to get from the Yellow Jackets.  About 300 yards of rushing and maybe 150 yards of passing.  Meanwhile, Utah has been outstanding against the run–giving up only 98 yards per game on the ground.  That is 8th in the nation.  Plus, the Utes will have several weeks to prepare for the Georgia Tech attack–something most teams do not get week-to-week.  But the bigger question is whether Utah can move the ball against Georgia Tech.  If Utah’s defense does what it can do, it will not need to score much to win.  Prediction: Utah 20 – Georgia Tech 14. 

On December 31, the final ACC game during the calendar year 2011 will involve Virginia (8-4) playing Auburn (7-5) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia.  Auburn has had its offensive woes this year as it transitions out of the Cam Newton era.  To be sure, they have to do that in the ever-difficult SEC.  Meanwhile, Virginia was only able to score 14 points in its final two games of the season against Florida State and Virginia Tech.  This has all the makings of a defensive struggle.  Maybe The Confidential is just a little too fond of Mike London.  This may be a case of having the ACC-Goggles on.  Prediction: Virginia 24-Auburn 14.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 29, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 29, 2011:

1Syracuse (14-0)  Still rolling.  Destroyed a decent Seton Hall team in the conference opener.

2. North Carolina (12-2)  The Tar Heels don’t play a ranked team until February 8th against Duke.

3. Duke (10-1)  If Duke wins the next five, including games against Temple and Virginia, they have to move ahead of North Carolina.

4. Virginia (11-1)  The Confidential moved the Cavs ahead of Pittsburgh in the last rankings… and Virginia is now ranked in the polls too.

5. Virginia Tech (10-3)  An upcoming game against Oklahoma State is a rare in-season rematch against an OOC foe.

6. Florida State (8-4)  Loss to Florida was disappointing.  But Florida is really, really good this year.

7. Pittsburgh (11-3)  No excuse for loss to Wagner.  Even the loss at Notre Dame is a head shaker.

8North Carolina State (8-4) 2-0 since losing to Syracuse.  All winnable games for a few more weeks.  Need to keep the momentum going.

9. Maryland (8-3) Maryland rises another spot–the Terps have won FIVE in a row now.

10. Wake Forest (8-4)  A few wins in a row now against middling competition.

11. Miami (7-4) Played some tough opponents, but Miami needs to start stringing together wins.

12. Georgia Tech (7-5) Lost to Mercer was unacceptable.

13. Clemson (7-6)  Just not winning enough.  Got to win early in the season to have a chance.

14. Boston College (5-7)  Three in a row going into game against ranked Harvard.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

The Confidential’s Basketball Top 30 for December 21, 2011

With over 300 teams in college basketball, the top 25 is just not enough anymore.  Here is the Confidential’s Top 30 for December 13, 2011:

  1. Syracuse (12-0).  Survived North Carolina State and held off tourney perennial Bucknell.
  2. Ohio State (11-1).  Cruising along, even without Sullinger.  Conference play is here now though.  Indiana on Saturday.
  3. Kentucky (10-1).  So much talent.  Huge game versus Louisville in two Saturdays.
  4. North Carolina (10-2).  Really not too impressive to start the season.  If they lose to Texas tonight, going to have to drop them down to 10th place or so.  The benefit of the doubt is getting weaker.
  5. Duke (10-1).  A real tough schedule to begin the season, but December finishes without much of a test.  If Louisville beats Georgetown and Kentucky, they will be leapfrogged.
  6. Louisville (11-0).  The win over Memphis was nice, but not enough to jump over UNC or Duke.  Georgetown in 7 days though.  And then Kentucky.
  7. Missouri (11-0).  The Tigers are undefeated and have better wins than Baylor and Florida.
  8. Florida (9-2).  Big game against Florida State on Thursday.  Both teams need that win.
  9. Baylor (10-0).  Baylor needs a signature win to start leapfrogging teams ahead of it in the standings.  Not sure West Virginia is it.
  10. UConn (9-1).  That mystery loss to UCF remains perplexing.  The Big East schedule will sort things out.
  11. Georgetown (9-1).  The Hoyas need to take care of business against disappointing Memphis.
  12. Pittsburgh (11-1).  Conference play starts next week against Notre Dame.
  13. Kansas (7-3).  Brutal schedule and lots of good wins.  But need to beat Davidson to stay in the top 10.
  14. Xavier (8-1).  The suspensions hurt, but scoring 42 points against Oral Roberts?
  15. Marquette (10-1). Win over Wisconsin is nice, but losing to LSU is a red flag.
  16. Wisconsin (10-2).  Losses to UNC and Marquette hurt, but Wisconsin has rebounded with a win over UNLV.  And we now know that UNLV is very tough.
  17. Indiana (11-0).  Wins over Kentucky and Notre Dame now.  This team may be for real.
  18. Michigan State (10-2).  MSU may not be top 5, but they have only lost to the top 5.  10 in a row since then.
  19. UNLV (12-2).  Wins over North Carolina and at Illinois are very good signs.  Might be looking at the #3 or #4 seed in the West.
  20. Murray State (12-0).  May run the table.  Who is going to beat them?
  21. Harvard (9-1).  Like Murray State, hard to see where the next loss comes from.
  22. Illinois (11-1).  Once the Big 10 season kicks off, the real Illinois will reveal itself.  For better or for worse.
  23. Mississippi State (11-1).  The loss to Akron remains the only blip.  Some decent wins.
  24. Virginia (9-1).  Hard to tell on the Cavs, but the ACC schedule starting in January will tell the story.
  25. Michigan (9-2).  No shame in losing to Duke.  Still needs more good wins.
  26. Creighton (9-1).  Big game against Northwestern this week.
  27. Northwestern (10-1).  Big game against Creighton this week.
  28. San Diego State (10-2).  Only losses are to undefeated Baylor and 1-loss Creighton.
  29. Stanford (10-1).  Looking like the best of a down Pac-12.
  30. Minnesota (11-1).  Eleven wins is eleven wins.  We’ll see.

If the season ended today, all of these teams could be in the Big Dance.  Time will tell as to how it plays out though…

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 20, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 20, 2011:

1Syracuse (11-0)  The win over North Carolina State gives Syracuse that coveted win in a true road game.  Up this week?  Bucknell and surprising Tulane.

2. North Carolina (10-2) Win over Appalachian State does not move the dial.  Coasted in the second half too.

3. Duke (10-1) No games last week.  No reason to move them up or down.

4. Virginia (9-1) Other than Syracuse, Virginia had the best win of the week by taking down Oregon at Oregon.  Enough to crack the top 25.

5. Pittsburgh (10-1)  Not really tested this past week.  Only a game against South Carolina State.

6. Virginia Tech (9-3)  Two wins over overmatched foes is not nearly enough to break into the top 5.

7. Florida State (8-3)  As with most ACC teams, the Seminoles had an easy week with two rather easy opponents.

8North Carolina State (6-4) The Wolfpack held their own against Syracuse for most of the game.  Syracuse was just too much in the end.

9. Georgia Tech (7-4) No wins of significance in the past week.

10. Maryland (6-3) Maryland is starting to string some wins together.  As the difficulty level increases, so to will Maryland’s rank here.

11. Wake Forest (7-4)  The Demon Deacons climb a spot after beating George Washington.  This was one of the more impressive wins of the week.

12. Miami (6-4) But it took overtime for Miami to hold off Florida Atlantic.  Not a good sign.

13. Clemson (6-4)  Beat up a few creampuffs to get to 6-4.  Could be worse. 

14. Boston College (4-7)  Things are getting better for the Eagles.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Weekend ACC Basketball Recap: December 19, 2011

While the big news of the weekend was Syracuse defending its #1 ranking on the road against North Carolina State, there were plenty of other noteworthy results.

On Saturday, Miami survived a double-overtime thriller against Florida Atlantic, 93-90.  The big news for Miami was the return of Center Reggie Johnson, who made his season debut after undergoing right knee surgery in June, and filled up the box score: 15 points, nine rebounds, five blocks and five assists.  Three other players chipped in 15 points or more for the Hurricanes, led by Kenny Kadji’s 21 points.  With the win, Miami nudges up to 6-4.

Surprisingly, the next closest game of the day on Saturday was #5 North Carolina’s 97-82 victory over Appalachian State.  To be fair, the Tar Heels jumped out to a 16-point lead at halftime and coasted to the win.  Tyler Zeller scored 31 points and added 10 rebounds.  North Carolina is now 9-2.

In other Saturday games, Clemson improved to 5-4 by defeating Winthrop 60-40.  Virginia Tech defeated Campbell 85-60 to get to 8-3 overall.  It should also be noted that future ACC member, #15 Pittsburgh, defeated South Carolina State 69-55.  The Panthers are now 10-1.

On Sunday, the ACC went 4 for 4.  The big game was Virginia’s 67-54 road victory over Oregon.  The Ducks went into the game with a 6-2 record, with losses to only BYU and Vanderbilt.  But the Cavaliers continued their good early season performance by holding Oregon to 42.6% shooting.  Virginia also dominated the boards, capturing a 39-24 edge.  Mike Scott led Virginia with 17 points and 13 rebounds.  Virginia is now 9-1 on the season and poised to move into the top 25.

Florida State improved to 8-3 with a 77-61 victory over Loyola Marymount.  Once again, the ACC team dominated the boards as the Seminoles crashed the boards for a ridiculous 49 to 32 edge.  The teams helped those numbers by shooting below average, 49 for 123 between the two teams.  Bernard James led the Seminoles with 17 points and 12 rebounds.

In other Sunday action, Wake Forest defeated Gardner-Webb 67-59 to get to 7-4.  And how about those Boston College Eagles, who got their fourth win on the season with a 20-point romp over Bryant, 75-55.  That’s two wins in a row.

The Confidential’s Basketball Top 30 for December 13, 2011

With over 300 teams in college basketball, the top 25 is just not enough anymore.  Here is the Confidential’s Top 30 for December 13, 2011:

  1. Syracuse (10-0).  Although Syracuse has not faced the same level of difficult opponents as some of the other elite programs, they have beaten Florida, Stanford, and Va Tech.  Big test at North Carolina State on Saturday
  2. Ohio State (8-1).  Losing to Kansas is nothing to be embarrassed about.  Doing it without your best player (perhaps the best player in the nation) makes it all the more reasonable.  Wins over Duke and Florida.
  3. Kentucky (8-1).  Again, losing to undefeated Indiana is not the end of the world here, especially for a team that has beaten North Carolina and Kansas.
  4. North Carolina (8-2).  There is no reason for a two-loss team to be this high in the standings.  But the rest of the undefeated teams have played far weaker schedules.  Wins over Wisconsin and Michigan State already.
  5. Duke (9-1).  Not many teams can lose by 20 and still be ranked in the top 5.  But Duke has beaten Kansas, Michigan, and Michigan State.
  6. Louisville (9-0).  Undefeated, but not the best grouping of wins.  Vanderbilt is decent though.  They get Memphis this weekend.
  7. Marquette (9-0). Like North Carolina, they have a win over Wisconsin.  Unlike North Carolina, no notable wins anywhere else.  Mississippi is probably the best.
  8. Kansas (7-2).  Losses to Kentucky and Duke hurt, but the Jayhawks already have wins over Georgetown, UCLA, and now Ohio State.
  9. Missouri (9-0).  The Tigers are undefeated and have wins over Villanova, Notre Dame, and California.  Not too shabby.
  10. Florida (7-2).  Like Baylor, Florida has 7 mediocre wins.  Unlike Baylor, they tested themselves in road losses to Syracuse and Ohio State.  Why punish the team that tries?
  11. Baylor (7-0).  Not going to reward Baylor for slotting them ahead of a team that schedules harder and has the same resume of wins.
  12. Xavier (8-0).  They have wins over Vanderbilt, Purdue, Butler, and now Cincinnati.  Unfortunately, having to play short-handed the next few games is not going to help.
  13. Georgetown (8-1).  Wins over Alabama and Memphis give Georgetown the edge over Big East foes.  Only loss is to Kansas.
  14. UConn (8-1).  Loss to UCF remains a head scratcher, but the Huskies now have wins over Harvard, Arkansas, and Florida State.
  15. Pittsburgh (8-1).  Loss to Long Beach State is even more curious, but Pitt is rebounding nicely.  Wins over Tennessee and Oklahoma State are good starts.
  16. Wisconsin (8-2).  Losses to UNC and Marquette hurt, but Wisconsin has rebounded with a win over UNLV.  We’ll learn more when Big 10 play starts.
  17. Indiana (9-0).  Win over Kentucky, last-second or otherwise, is that chip to merit a ranking.  Next up?  Notre Dame.
  18. Michigan State (8-2).  Rebounded nicely from the losses to UNC and Duke.  Wins over Florida State and now Gonzaga.
  19. Illinois (10-0).  Only test so far is Gonzaga.  Maryland is not the usual Maryland.
  20. Murray State (10-0).  Win at Memphis is nice.  They also have a win over Dayton.
  21. Mississippi State (9-1).  Nice wins over West Virginia, Arizona, and Texas A&M.  The loss to Akron is hard to explain though.
  22. Vanderbilt (6-3).  Losses to Louisville and Xavier are excusable.  Cleveland State???  What is going on in Ohio?
  23. Harvard (9-1).  Handled pretty easily by UConn.  The win over Florida State is the big one.
  24. Michigan (7-2).  No shame in losing to Duke.  Virginia was winnable, but ultimately a loss.  Best win is over Memphis.
  25. UNLV (7-2).  The win over North Carolina was huge.  The loss to Wisconsin on the road is understandable.  Looking forward to game against Illinois.
  26. Stanford (8-1).  Wins over North Carolina State and Oklahoma State.  Only loss was after giving Syracuse a run for its money in New York City.
  27. Alabama (8-2).  Losses to Georgetown and Dayton.  Wins over Wichita State and Purdue though.
  28. Northwestern (7-1).  Drubbed by Baylor, but nice wins over Seton Hall and Georgia Tech.
  29. Virginia (8-1).  Only decent win is over Michigan.  Time will tell on the Cavs.
  30. Mississippi (8-1).  Very bad loss to Marquette.  Decent wins over Miami and Drake.

If the season ended today, all of these teams could be in the Big Dance.  We will see how it plays out though…

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