Future Big East vs. Future ACC
The recent addition of Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC is great news for the future. It is hoped that this move will rejuvenate football, strengthen basketball, add new lucrative markets, solidify the northern core of the conference, and perhaps lead to Notre Dame joining to really add juice to football. That’s the easy part.
The fact of the matter is that it also weakens the Big East. While the Big East was likely to lose a team or two anyway, the ACC’s move means that the Big East lost four total teams. In addition, three of those teams–all but TCU–are great basketball schools too. The Big East’s loss is the ACC’s gain. But, forget basketball for a moment, this is all about football.
As of yesterday, the Big East has apparently sent out 6 invitations. It is expected that these are football only invitations to Boise St., Air Force, and Navy. It is also expected that these are all-sports invitations to UCF, Houston, and SMU. While many have characterized this as a move of desperation, how will the future Big East stack up against the future ACC in football moving forward?
Actually, let’s take a step back. From a prestige standpoint, the new ACC will absolutely crush the Big East. Even the middle of the pack of the ACC will be name schools, such as Virginia, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, etc. These are schools that have had football success in the past 15 to 20 years. BCS appearances. Bowl games. National titles even.
Also, this is not about marketing and money. The new Big East will have new markets, but not domination in markets. Nobody carries NYC, home of Rutgers. Louisville splits Kentucky with, well, Kentucky. Cincy is second chair to Ohio State. Houston and SMU are behind Texas, Texas A&M, and sometimes Oklahoma in the major Texas markets. Boise St. is a small market. Navy and Air Force are national, but nobody is turning in to watch Navy play anyone other than Army or Notre Dame. USF and UCF still have to get over the big three in Miami, FSU, and Florida. Needless to say, this is not about $$$ yet. The ACC wins hands down.
But let’s just look at it from an on-field football performance scenario. According to the CBS, the new Big East will have the current #5, #14, and #23 teams in the AP poll. The new ACC will have #11, #12, and #22. That’s pretty close. Perhaps even an edge to the Big East?
To go beyond the top 25, one needs to look at the CBS Rankings. While The Confidential does not pretend that these have any real merit, it is one (albeit very subjective and debatable) measuring stick.
The new Big East has #4 (Boise St.), #8 (Houston), #26 (Cincy), #42 (SMU), #47 (Rutgers), #53 (USF), #67 (Louisville), #78 (Air Force), #81 (UCF), #92 (UConn), and #93 (Navy)
The new ACC has #10 (Clemson), #12 (Virginia Tech), #24 (Georgia Tech), #32 (UNC), #41 (FSU), #45 (Miami), #46 (Wake Forest), #51 (Syracuse), #58 (Virginia), #75 (NC State), #77 (Pitt), #87 (Duke), #101 (Maryland), and #104 (BC).
Top 25: ACC 3, Big East 2 (could easily be 3)
Top 50: ACC 7 (could be 8 with Syracuse), Big East 5.
Edge for the ACC. Although it should be noted that the ACC does have more teams. And the Big East does not have teams in the bottom 25.
The bigger question, of course, is whether Boise St., Houston, and SMU can sustain their current rankings. The ACC knows that it will have 2 or 3 ranked teams every year. By moving to 12 teams, the Big East makes it far more likely that they will avoid the embarrassment of finishing a season shut out of the top 25.
Finally, let’s not ignore schedule here. If all teams played a schedule at the same level, there is little doubt that these rankings would get shaken up considerably. Boise St. has played Georgia. Cincinnati lost to NC State, despite the 50 placement gap in these CBS rankings. Cincy destroyed NC State, but lost to struggling Tennessee. FSU lost to Oklahoma. Miami lost to Kansas State. UNC beat Rutgers. However, given that the Big East teams will not have the elite opponents on the schedule, they are going to benefit by having a better, but emptier, record. This is something that the ACC will just have to overcome. But, all-in-all, it sure looks like the Big East is not going to fall off the map here.
What do you think?
The Confidential 
I think you’re wrong. Cincy destroyed NC State this year 44-14.
You are correct. Edited. Thanks for the heads up on the error.
However, this is a pretty well researched article and a good read.
Interesting read. Of course, it doesn’t touch on what happens if UConn and Rutgers are invited to the ACC, and Lousiville and Cincy are invited to the Big 12. Which would leave us with a Big East consisting of USF, UCF, Navy, Air Force, SMU, Houston, and Boise State (possibly BYU as well, if some of the rumors are credible). At that point, you’ve got to think that the Big East is obliged to figure out a new name.