ACC Football Predictions for Week 4
The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.
Last week was a bit better at 10-1… making it a 28-8 start to the season. On to week 4,where things will get a little tougher matchup-wise:
September 22, 2012
Bowling Green (1-2) @ Virginia Tech (2-1), noon. Virginia Tech has to be embarrassed by last week. The last time the Hokies were embarrassed (James Madison), they won 11 straight. You cannot predict a loss here. Prediction: Virginia Tech 33, Bowling Green 14.
Maryland (2-1) @ #8 West Virginia (2-0), noon. The records say “close game.” The names have historically suggested “close game.” While West Virginia has played nobody so far, Maryland’s 2-1 is more imaginary than a cartoon character seeing a mirage of an oasis in the desert. The only question is whether West Virginia agrees to a running clock in the second half. Prediction: West Virginia 49, Maryland 10.
Virginia (2-1) @ #17 TCU (2-0), noon. Before the season, this looked like an upset special. But Virginia has been underwhelming. Sure, TCU has to play at 11:00 a.m. local time. That might help keep it close. Prediction: TCU 30, Virginia 20.
Army (0-2) @ Wake Forest (2-1), 12:30 p.m. Wake Forest need not be embarrassed by last week’s loss to Florida State. They need to forget about it and move on. This is a team that can win 8 or 9 games if things go right. It all starts against Army. Prediction: Wake Forest 21, Army 10.
Miami (2-1) @ Georgia Tech (2-1), 3:00 p.m. Georgia Tech narrowly lost to a now-questionable Virginia Tech, and looked great in pasting Virginia. Miami was obliterated by Kansas State, who was only OK against North Texas. Miami did beat Boston College. Everything about this suggests Georgia Tech. Hmmm…. but the Confidential would never place an actual bet on this game. A hunch that Miami will win–there always seems to be one Georgia Tech or Miami game that is entirely unpredictable. This may be it. Despite that, with all meekness and shame, the official prediction is Georgia Tech 38, Miami 34 (OT).
Gardner-Webb (0-3) @ Pitt (1-2), 3:30 p.m. Given that few teams have ever lost to an FCS team once, the odds of Pitt losing to two FCS teams one year is pretty slim. The win over Va Tech means that if the impossible does happen, the coaching staff would survive to the following Monday. What would have been an “absolute must win” becomes merely a “must win.” They have to, right? Prediction: Pitt 35, Gardner-Webb 10.
East Carolina (2-1) @ North Carolina (1-2), 3:30 p.m. Once upon a time there was a colony named Carolina. And then it divided into North Carolina and East Carolina. And that’s how East Carolina became the 14th colony. Look it up. Anyway, returning to reality… North Carolina rallied nicely against Louisville and only barely lost to Wake Forest. East Carolina has looked decent too. This could be a very good game. Prediction: North Carolina 31, East Carolina 21.
Memphis (0-3) @ Duke (2-1), 6:00 p.m. This game is the opposite of FSU-Clemson. Memphis is one of the worst football teams in FBS. Anyone willing to bet lunch money on them being a top FCS team? Did not think so. Memphis has lost to three teams called Tennessee-Martin, Arkansas State, and Middle Tennessee State (bonus points if you know which one was the FCS school). Meanwhile, Duke has hardly been a football powerhouse. But Duke has scored 50 points per game in its two wins. That’s 50 per game! Big 10 basketball teams wish they could score like that! No reason for that trend to stop now. Prediction: Duke 50, Memphis 21 17 20ish (does it matter?).
Citadel (3-0) @ North Carolina State (2-1), 6:00 p.m. North Carolina State is a good FBS team. Citadel (is it The Citadel or not?) is a good FCS team. This one may be closer than desired for a while, but NC State should pull away right about the time everyone is ready to switch over to the big game of the night. Prediction: North Carolina State 34, Citadel 17.
Syracuse (1-2) @ Minnesota (3-0), 8:00 p.m. Minnesota’s three wins are not that impressive: UNLV in OT, New Hampshire, and Western Michigan. But Syracuse’s one win was even less impressive, and that U.S.C. loss now looks less like a “moral victory.” Nobody should be surprised if Syracuse wins. But the Confidential has to ignore the heart and recognize the brain saying “home team wins.” Prediction: Minnesota 31, Syracuse 28.
#10 Clemson (3-0) @ #4 Florida State (3-0), 8:00 p.m. Clemson looked great in defeating Auburn (suspect win now), Ball State (meh), and Furman (sub-meh). Florida State has looked outstanding in defeating Murray State (yawn), Savannah State (running clock anyone?), and Wake Forest (nice). Florida State has outscored its opponents by something like 176-3. They are on pace to give up 12 points. 14 if they win out. When Florida State was great, it was defense. The glory days ended in 2001. From 1987 to 2000, Florida State allowed 200 or more points in just 4 seasons. And three of those were 206 points or less. See here. From 2001 to 2011, Florida State allowed less than 200 points only twice. You get the picture.
The Confidential appreciates that Clemson has two mega-playmakers in Boyd and Watkins. But Florida State should be able to, at the very least, contain them. The real question will be whether Florida State can put up points against Clemson. Given that FSU is averaging 60 points a game, while Clemson allowed 23 PPG to Auburn and Ball State, FSU should be able to score enough. This is FSU’s time to return to glory. The Seminoles just need to reach out and grab it, avoiding the self-inflicted wounds of the past. Also, if Swofford has any common sense at all… Florida State should get a few calls this time. Prediction: Florida State 34, Clemson 23.
The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team. There is also a lot of chalk here. However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial. Feel free to share why we are wrong.
The Confidential 