The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the category “Football”

10 Dec 2011

Heisman Trophy Preview

Later today, the Heisman Trophy will be awarded to college football’s “best” player.  As all know, the linemen and all but the most exceptional defensive players can be eliminated from consideration.  This year, there is one of those exceptional players–Tyrone Mathieu of LSU, a defensive back/specials teams player extraordinaire.  The rest of the contenders play the familiar positions: QB Andrew Luck, Stanford; QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor; RB Trent Richardson, Alabama; and RB Montee Ball, Wisconsin.  Here is how the Confidential ranks them (not a prediction of who will win the award):

1.   Robert Griffin III, Baylor QB.

While he now likely to win, there is good reason for this momentum.  Consider this–the last time Baylor won 9 games was 1986, 25 years ago.  Since the Big XII was formed in 1996, Baylor has put up the following win totals: 4, 2, 2, 1, 2, 3, 3, 3, 3, 5, 4, 3, 4, 4, 7, and 9 (this year).  Under Griffin, Baylor has 16 wins the past two years, including two bowls.  In the non-Griffin, Big XII years Baylor won 39 games in 13 years (3 per year) and went to zero bowls.  8 per year under Griffin, 3 per year without him.  It’s one thing for a player to plug into a system and dominate.  Griffin has been a program changer.

And if you like statistics, look at these.  A 192.3 passer rating, better than Russell Wilson, Case Keenum, Kellen Moore, and some guy named Andrew Luck.  A top 5 completion percentage.  The 6th most yards passing.  An average of 10.8 yards passing per attempt, best in FBS.  36 touchdowns against 6 interceptions.  You can put those numbers up against any QB.  In fact, according to ESPN, Griffin had the highest QB rating ever: “You read that Griffin ‘broke the passing efficiency record’ and it sounds simple and rolls off the tongue. But really think about that: There are 120 FBS teams that suit up every year. That number’s fluctuated, but college football’s been going on for a long, long time.”

For good measure, Griffin chipped in for 644 yards rushing and nine touchdowns.  While there were 10 quarterbacks to rush for more yards, none of them had a better QB passer rating than Griffin.  After all, he had the best passer rating of the season.  And the best passer rating in the history of the rating.  The Confidential has no idea how Griffin’s game will translate to the NFL, but the fact that Luck’s game will easily transfer is no reason to ignore the statistics and impact on a team/program.  Give him the Heisman.

2.  Montee Ball, Wisconsin RB.

Wisconsin finished the season 11-2.  Those two losses were on Hail Mary passes against Big 10 opponents Michigan State and Ohio State.  There is nothing Montee Ball could have done to prevent either result from happening.  In fact, in the Michigan State loss, Ball missed significant time during the game with an injury, before gutting out the rest of the game and scoring the touchdown that put Wisconsin temporarily ahead of the Spartans with less than 2 minutes to go.

And check out the statistics.  1,759 yards was most in the nation.  32 touchdowns rushing and 38 overall.  According to ESPN, only Barry Sanders had more in a single season.

The only reason the edge goes to Griffin here is because Ball played with a top QB.  Griffin was the top passer, but Wisconsin’s Russell Wilson was 2nd in that category.  That took some of the pressure off Ball at times, as teams had to respect both players.  The narrow edge goes to Griffin here.

3.  Andrew Luck, Stanford QB.

You want wins, Luck got 11 of them for the Cardinal.  That allowed Stanford to qualify for its second straight BCS bowl game appearance.  You want passing yards, how about 3,170 in a 12-game season?  You want touchdowns, how about 35 of them?  You want passer rating, how about 167.5?  You name the statistic, Luck put it up for Stanford.

However, it’s just not good enough this year.  Look at Griffin’s statistics–they are better across the board.  Moreover, by all accounts, Luck could be in the NFL this year.  In deciding to come back for one more year, Luck did what media pundits always love to see–the guy choosing college over the pros.  However, his statistics did not improve.  Stanford’s fate did not improve.  And, in the big game against Oregon, Luck had two interceptions and a fumble.  Luck had an outstanding season, but just not enough to justify awarding the historical relevance that comes with winning the Heisman trophy.  He’ll have to settle for a Super Bowl someday.

4.  Trent Richardson, Alabama RB.

Trent Richardson was the key offensive player on a team that will play for the national championship.  He led the SEC with 1,583 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns.  According to ESPN, his 23 total touchdowns were second in school and SEC history.  Against LSU, he rushed for 169 yards.  Not too many TEAMS did that against LSU.

Richardson has a few Heisman moments too, such as the long runs against Auburn and Ole Miss.  But, as you can see, those plays came against the bottom half of the SEC West.  And he cannot leapfrog the statistical season put up by Montee Ball.  Granted, Wisconsin likes to run up the stats against inferior teams, but Montee Ball had 32 touchdowns.  That is a hard number to overlook.  In some years, he had the season to deserve the Heisman.  Just not this year.

Also hurting Richardson is the absence of a Heisman moment.

5.  Tyrone Mathieu, LSU DB.

If you watched the big LSU games this year, you know that this guy was the sparkplug for a 13-0 LSU team.  When things looked bleak in big wins over Arkansas and Georgia, Mathieu took over with long special teams returns for touchdowns.  Against Arkansas, Mathieu had a 92-yard punt return to tie the game at 14-14 in the first half, serving as the catalyst for an LSU romp in the second half over the #3 team in the BCS standings at the time.  Against Georgia in the SEC championship game, LSU had zero first downs in the first half.  However, Mathieu’s 62 yard punt return touchdown kept LSU in the game, leading to another second half romp over the SEC East Champions.  Throw in a whole host of big defensive plays, including forced fumbles and interceptions, and it is easy to see how Mathieu is a finalist.

However, LSU is 13-0.  In this instance, their overall talent works against Mathieu.  The LSU secondary features Morris Claiborne, who led the team in interceptions and had some key specials teams plays of his own, such as the 99-yard kickoff return against West Virginia.  LSU had a top 5 defense overall, including 2 of the top 40 sack leaders in the NCAA.  And, when Mathieu was suspended for a game against then #20 Auburn, LSU still won 45-10.   Mathieu’s suspension has to be a factor too.  Although Mathieu is a special player on a very special team, that is not enough to leapfrog any of the top 4.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football and tagged ,
07 Dec 2011

Fedora to North Carolina Imminent

ESPN and other media outlets are reporting that Larry Fedora will leave Southern Mississippi to become the next head football coach for the North Carolina Tar Heels.  Fedora was 33-19 in four seasons at Southern Miss, including four straight bowl appearances.  The Golden Eagles will face Nevada in the 2011 Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl on December 24th.

For North Carolina, this ends several months of speculation since the firing of Butch Davis.  Although North Carolina had some very good years under Mack Brown in the 1990’s, they have not had a 10-win season since that decade.  Davis was unable to fix that and, worse yet, saw various NCAA infractions allegedly occur on his watch.

Still, Fedora enters a situation where the cupboard is far from bare.  The Tar Heels have been to four straight bowl games.  The ACC is good enough to merit two BCS bowl participants, but not so good to prevent a team like North Carolina from rising to the top.  Time will tell, but this certainly seems like a win-win hire for all parties.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , ,
07 Dec 2011

The College Football Overtime Rules Need to be Revised

With all the other hot topics to discuss, such as alleged molestation and the always-present college football post–season debate, the Confidential is hesitant to start another debate.  But the college football overtime rules stink.  There is no need for the NCAA to continue to use a system that is more “NHL Shootout” than the “Modified Sudden-Death” rules of the NFL during the playoff season.  Let the kids play real football in overtime.

As all college football fans know, the overtime rules allow each team to get one possession at the 25-yard line.  The possession order flips each overtime period.  In the third overtime, teams must go for a 2-point conversion after a touchdown.

The first problem the Confidential has is that the possessions start at the 25-yard line.  For the most part, teams start in field goal position.  If they gain 5 yards, it is a 37-yard field goal.  Even for college kickers, this is not a daunting kick (sorry Boise).  In a game like LSU-Alabama, the defenses came up big all night in denying the opposing offense the opportunity to get into field goal position.  And then in overtime, the rules just gave each team automatic placement there.  It was a field goal contest with LSU winning and Alabama losing.  The result was fair–Alabama has no reason to whine or complain.  But is this really how games should be resolved?  The field goal equivalent to an NHL shootout?  A team does not move the ball, but can win because it has the better kicker?

To be sure, the NFL sudden-death rules are a bit harsh.  The team that wins the coin flip MUST take the ball (ask the Detroit Lions about this) and the majority of time will score via a field goal to end the game.  The other team does not even get the ball.  That seems odd.  Football is not just an offensive sport–it is a game that involves offense, defense, and special teams.  Allowing the recipient to win on a field goal where the opponent does not even get a chance to put its offense on the field against its opponent’s defense diminishes the fairness and reliability of the result.

Even the NFL is moving away from the rule, allowing both teams to at least have possession of the ball in playoff overtime games.  To deprive an overtime game of Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers, simply because their teams had the poor fortune of losing a coin flip, was finally deemed insufficient by the NFL.  The college rules, fortunately,  never wavered in recognizing that both teams deserve to put their offenses on the field.

But the NFL does not adopt entirely new rules for overtime, such as having the teams start from the opponent’s 25-yard line. Nor should college football.  Just guarantee each team a chance to possess the ball and be done with it.  Play normal football and see what happens.

The second problem the Confidential has with the rules is that it is as if the goal of the college football game is to end the game as soon as possible.  What’s the hurry?  Baseball doesn’t start extra innings with a runner on third-base.

Even the NHL plays a 5-minute overtime (albeit with 4 on 4) before resorting to the shootout.  And those rules do not apply to NHL playoff games, which just continue indefinitely until there is a winner.    After all, the NHL playoffs are elimination-type games (some are elimination, all count towards determining elimination).

College basketball provides 5 minute overtime period(s) with the same basic rules–regardless of whether the game is played in November or March.  Who can forget the epic six-overtime Syracuse-Connecticut game?   The game ended at 1:22 a.m.  Is there any reason a college football game cannot extend as long as necessary to reach a reliable result?  Absolutely not.  In fact, college basketball features players fouling out and being unable to return in overtime.  Eight players fouled out of the Syracuse-UConn game.  That led to reduced rosters.  In football, most teams travel with at least 65 players and usually quite a bit more.  There is no concern about not being able to field a team.

That being said, the Confidential does understand that college football is grueling.  Players need to be appropriate hydrated wearing all of those pads.  The game is, itself, physical.  So if there is a reason to not drag out the game by having coaches play a very conservative style of overtime and taking three fifteen-minute overtime periods to resolve.  That is understandable.  But that is why a modified form of sudden-death rules is appropriate.

In light of all of this, the Confidential proposes this for a modified, sudden-death overtime:

  • The overtime game begins with the last team to score in regulation receiving the football via kickoff.
  • The first kickoff by any team in overtime cannot be an onside kick.  The kick must travel beyond the 50-yard line or it is a 10-yard penalty–with the receiving team choosing to apply to the recovery or require a re-kick with the penalty yardage.
  • The team that receives the first kickoff can punt, score, or be scored upon.
  • If the team that receives the first kickoff punts, they lose the game if its opponent scores a TD or FG.
  • If the team that receives the first kickoff is scored upon via a safety, defensive touchdown or punt return touchdown, the game ends without any further action.
  • If the team that receives the first kickoff scores, the other team will get one offensive possession.  That team has the one possession to tie the game or win the game.  If they score to take a lead, they win the game.  But, if they tie the game, the overtime shifts to full sudden-death mode.  The next team that scores by any method wins.
  • After each team has one possession, onside kicks are allowed.
  • A fumbled punt return or kickoff return counts as an offensive possession.

With this rule, both teams would have at least one chance to put its special teams and offense on the field.  If the receiving team gets conservative and does not go for it on 4th down or kicks a FG, they run the risk of losing by a FG or TD later.  If the team that gets the ball second chooses to go for the tie, rather than the win… so be it.  Do not complain that you lost in sudden-death when you had the opportunity to win.

The only unfairness possible is if the first team with possession  scores a TD, goes for two, and converts it…. in that instance, the team with the ball second has no chance to win it.  But even then they could decide to kick an onsides kick if they really did not want their opponent’s offense back on the field for a sudden-death chance to win it.  At least there is a chance.

Return to the LSU-Alabama overtime.  By not having both teams start at the 25-yard line, either Alabama or LSU would have to drive the field to score a TD.  Or have their defense make a play to get them in FG range.  Or have a punt return that sets up field position.  In other words, even the FG would require some performance by the three phases of football.  Whomever won that game would have done something other than have a FG kicking contest.  The result would be that much more reliable.

And given that the FBS system is all about the regular season being the playoff, isn’t that all the more important?  Let Oklahoma State play Iowa State in a real overtime to determine if the Cowboys lose control of their own destiny.  Let Alabama and LSU play real football to decide the outcome in overtime.  Overtimes decide hugely important games.  These overtimes would be thoroughly enjoyable for the fans watching in person and on television.  Everyone wins if the NCAA adopts these more reasonable overtime rules.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Uncategorized and tagged , , ,
06 Dec 2011
6 Comments

College Football Playoffs–Be Careful What You Wish For!

The period between the announcement of the bowl matchups and the crowning of the national championship is the season for many to clamor that college football is a failure and will be until there is a playoff.  ‘Tis the season for media personalities to jump on the populist bandwagon and complain about the evil BCS system.  The easy argument is that it is absurd that college football is the only sport without a playoff–and the NCAA has one at every other level of football.  But be careful what you wish for sports fans.  While a playoff may seem like an overdue necessity, the current college football system is simply awesome.  The Confidential thinks that football fans need to appreciate the beauty of the system, rather than looking for the few ways that it is imperfect.

As an initial matter, the current system WORKS!  The BCS system is designed to ensure that the #1 team plays the #2 team.  Well, it has always done that, right?  If you are excluded, it is because your team is ranked #3.  Maybe it should have been #2… but it was not deemed to be.

Yeah, there is often debate about who is #1 and who is #2, but isn’t that always the case?  If there was a 4-team playoff, the fifth place team would be excluded as the greatest injustice in the history of injustices every year.  Just think about this year… who would the 4 teams be?  LSU, Alabama, Stanford, and Oklahoma State.  Stanford and Alabama did not even win their conference division, much less win their conference championship. And what about 2008, where there were FIVE undefeated teams.  Who are you leaving out?

What about an 8-team playoff.  If 4 is hard, try figuring out 8.  If you went by BCS standings, you would have LSU, Alabama, Okie State, Stanford, Oregon, Arkansas, Boise State, and Kansas State.  That’s right, no teams from the ACC or Big 10.  How do you leave out Wisconsin, the Big 10 champ at an impressive 11-2 record?   And so on.  Is it the major conference champions that qualify?  So a 7-5 Louisville or 7-6 UCLA would qualify just for winning their conference title, even though there are teams with much better records in their conference and, of course, outside their conference.  The deeper you go in a playoff pool, the smaller the difference is between candidates.  Is Michigan really worse than Kansas State?  Are you sure?  Really sure?  8 teams is just not enough.

Perhaps you think that they should have a 16-team playoff, just like the other divisions.  Now you are adding four weeks to the season.  The FCS playoffs have started and are already down to 8 teams.  Actually, the FCS uses 20 teams and started Thanksgiving weekend.  For a team like Albany, their 11-game regular season schedule ended on November 19th and they were eliminated before December.  They did not have a bye week.  There are no conference championship games.  Albany finished the regular season 8-3, but still qualified in a playoff for the right to go 8-4.  Is that what people want?  8-3 playoff teams?  Of course, in the round of 16, the top seeds all advanced to the next round anyway.  Despite giving the 8 teams the opportunity to pull an upset, none did.  This is not surprising, given that they just played a whole season to determine who the cream of the crop was.  All a 16-team playoff does is water down the regular season.  Having a bunch of 3-loss teams qualify does nothing more than render some regular season losses irrelevant.  You can still lose 1 or 2 more and make the playoffs, after all.

In contrast, the BCS system always pits #1 against #2.  Occasionally, the debate between #2 and #3 is such that a winning #3 might get some votes that belong to the winning #2.  But no matter who is crowned the champion, it is based on the performance of work from day 1 to the last day of the season. Even if you vehemently disagree as to who is #1 or #2, those are still great teams.

But, you say, the playoffs are the only way to settle a champion.  Says who?  Look at basketball.  3 weeks of games and you get a national champion.  However, look at last year!  The 9th place team in the Big East, UConn, won the national championship.  Quick… name UConn’s regular season losses.  I bet you cannot even name how many they had.  They lost 9.  Even though they lost 9 times, they were still deemed the best team–the National Champion. How can that be?  The Cinderella stories of North Carolina State and Villanova were great, but nobody REALLY thinks that those schools were the best in the land.

Perhaps you are of the mind that the National Champion simply refers to the team that wins the post-season tournament, not the “best team.”  Whoever wins it all deserves praise.  But college football does not stop there.  College football sets out to crown a National Champion AND determine who the best team is.  In basketball, you play for 4 months to whittle the field down from 300+ to 68.  Of those 68, roughly 20 of them are not truly among the top 68 teams.  Even so , that leaves 48 that likely are the best 48 (especially if ignore that coach of the 12-loss team on the radio show circuit the morning after the bracket is announced and his team was #49).  You do all that, only to discard it and play a tournament.

Is the regular season just a practice for the Big Dance?  Nobody EVER says that about college football.  Lose to Iowa State in week 10, and it could keep you out of the national championship.  Perhaps you think that it is not fair to penalize a team who loses.  Well, every March, we penalize 67 teams for losing.  It’s a single-elimination tournament where every loss ends the season.  #1 seed?  Better beat Northern Iowa.  #3 seed?  Better beat Belmont.  And so on.

In football, the loss in September or November may or may not end your season from a national championship perspective, but it likely will.  At the very least, you lose control over your own destiny.  In college football, every September game is basically just like a first-round game of the Big Dance.  You have to win to stay alive.  Every October game is like a Round of 32 game.  Every November game narrows down to Sweet 16, Elite 8, and Final Four.  And, by the time the BCS bids are announced, you are down to 2.

But the football system makes up for it with bowl games for many.  Ask Pitt and Syracuse whether their weekend matchup of 5-6 teams mattered.  The winner got a bowl game, the loser went home.  Ask West Virginia whether its game against USF–a win that got them into the Orange Bowl–mattered.  It did.  And we know that West Virginia was watching Cincinnati beat UConn with glee.  Three regular season games in the worst BCS conference and they all mattered greatly.  If there was a 16-team playoff, would those games have mattered at all?   How many college basketball games in February matter?  Sure, for seeding.  A few bubble teams clashing to see which 10-loss team qualifies to be a 12th seed.  But merely days before the bracket is announced, those games largely do not matter.  Even in the worst conference, the worst team in that conference can win its conference championship and get a ticket to the Big Dance.  And notice how exciting those conference championship games are?  That television is compelling.  Because the games matter.  Elimination games matter.

And that is why the current football system is simply awesome!  Every game is an elimination game, from September to December.  Lose once, you are no longer controlling your national championship destiny.  Lose twice, you are done.  Lose three times, and your conference championship hopes dim.  Lose four times, you are looking at a mid-level bowl.  Lose five times, now you are looking at a late December bowl.  Lose six times?  You’ll be playing in mid-December.  Lose  seven times?  There is no post-season (except for UCLA).  Every weeks costs something measurable.

The NFL has a playoff system.  Yes, the NFL allows 12 of its 32 teams to make the playoffs.  The NFL is, like college basketball, more of a marathon than a sprint.  You can lose an NFL game in September, another in October, another in November, and another in December, and yet still finish 12-4.  No 12-4 team has been excluded from the playoffs.  Quite the contrary, there have been late season NFL games that are so unimportant that teams rest their stars.  You don’t see that in college football under the current system.  You might if there was a playoff.  Is that desirable?  Meaningless games at the end of the season?  Of course, unlike many other sports, Football is always single elimination.  The better team does not always win.  The 2010 Super Bowl was won by a #6 seed.  A college football playoff would do nothing more than weaken the import of that September win over your best OOC opponent.  A college football playoff would render that November win over your rival secondary.   Those games are mere tuneups for the playoff.

The day that college football goes to a playoff is the day that your team no longer has to try to win every game.  If a 10-2 team can make the playoffs, that’s all that teams need to strive to obtain.  Sure, a team will always want to go undefeated, but the pressure to do so will no longer be there.   At that point, college football will cease to be what it has been for all these decades.  All the Confidential can say is be careful what you wish for–sometimes the cure is worse than the disease.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Uncategorized and tagged , , ,
05 Dec 2011

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 5, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 5, 2011:

1.  Syracuse–Win over top 10 Florida keeps the Orange rolling at 8-0.  Fab Melo and Dion Waiters are much improved sophomores.

2. North Carolina–At 6-2, the Tarheels have lost twice.  Both were on the road in tough games.  The loss to Kentucky carries no shame.  Nice win over Wisconsin.

3. Duke–At 7-1, Duke has also beaten some good teams.  The 20-point loss to Ohio State is hard to ignore though.

4. Virginia–At 7-1, the Cavaliers finally got that nice win (over Michigan).  In fact, the Cavs were one of just 4 ACC teams to win their matchup against a Big 10 foe.

5. Pittsburgh–At 7-1, the Panthers are circling the wagons.  Tennessee is not a great team, but a good road win though.

6.  Miami–At 5-2, the win over UMass helps offset the loss to a very good Purdue team on the road.

7. Virginia Tech–One of four 5-3 teams, the Hokies get the edge based on the quality of losses–Syracuse (8-0), Minnesota (8-1), and Kansas State (5-0).

8. Florida State– At 5-3, the Seminoles have also lost to three very good teams in Harvard (8-0), UConn (7-1), and Michigan State (6-2).  Narrowly behind the Hokies in this regard.

9.  North Carolina State–At 5-3, losing at home to Indiana was a bit of a surprise.  Indiana is off to a good start at 8-0, but the Wolfpack need to protect home court.  Stanford and Texas are decent losses too.

10. Wake Forest– At 5-3, the Demon Deacons started the week well by defeating Texas Tech and Nebraska, but closed poorly losing to Richmond.

11. Clemson–at 4-3, with a decent win over Iowa and tough loss to South Carolina.

12. Georgia Tech–at 4-4, Georgia Tech gets the edge over Maryland based on the quality of the losses this week Tulane (9-0) and Northwestern (7-1).

13. Maryland–at 4-3, Maryland showed some life by beating Notre Dame, who is still reeling from the loss of Tim Abromaitis.  A positive sign that a surge may be on the horizon though.

14. Boston College--at 2-6.  Ugh.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Dec 2011
1 Comment

Virginia Tech and Clemson BOTH Heading for BCS Bowls!

The bowl matchups are complete and BOTH Virginia Tech and Clemson are heading for BCS games this year.  The collective wisdom was that the ACC Championship was for the right to play in the Orange Bowl as the ACC’s sole BCS representative.  Nobody expected the loser, in this case Virginia Tech, to sneak in the backdoor and snare the at-large bid to the Sugar Bowl.  But that is exactly what happened–meaning a larger payout to the ACC.

Here are all the bowl matchups:

ORANGE BOWL, January 4, 2012

Clemson (10-3) vs. West Virginia (9-3) in a matchup of two excellent traveling fan bases who consider themselves overdue for a BCS appearance.

SUGAR BOWL, January 3, 2012

Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Michigan (10-2).  Only Clemson could beat the Hokies.  Can the Hokies stop Denard Robinson?

CHICK-FIL-A Bowl, December 31, 2011

Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5)

SUN BOWL, December 31, 2011

Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Utah (7-5)

MUSIC CITY BOWL, December 30, 2011

Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (6-6)

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL, December 29, 2011

Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

BELK BOWL, December 27, 2011

North Carolina St. (7-5) vs. Louisville (7-5)

INDEPENDENCE BOWL, December 26, 2011

North Carolina (7-5) vs. Missouri (7-5)

Notes:

  • With the Virginia Tech selection to the Sugar Bowl, the ACC was unable to fill all of its bowl slots.  The Military Bowl will now feature Toledo and Air Force.
  • Miami was bowl-eligible, but self-imposed a bowl ban due to possible NCAA rules violations.
  • Future members Syracuse and Pittsburgh battled for a bowl spot, with Pitt winning and earning the right to play in the BBVA Compass Bowl against SMU on January 7, 2012.
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Dec 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  With only bowl games remaining, here is how we view the ACC football schools as of December 5, 2011:

1.  Clemson–At 10-3, the Tigers lost more games than Va Tech, but beat the Hokies soundly.  Twice.  Without hosting them in either game.

2. Virginia Tech–at 11-2, Virginia Tech need not be ashamed of its season.  A Sugar Bowl bid as an at-large BCS team now awaits.

3. Virginia–of the three 8-4 teams, Virginia beat both of them.

4. Georgia Tech–at 8-4, the Yellow Jackets’ losses were to teams with a combined record of 35-13.

5. Florida State–at 8-4, the Seminoles losses were to teams with a combined record of 32-16.

6. North Carolina State–North Carolina State gets the edge here for beating North Carolina.

7. North Carolina–same 7-5 record as NC State, who shutout the Tar Heels.

8. Wake Forest–the same 6-6 record as Miami, but Wake Forest gets the edge here.  Wake Forest’s season was bookended by losses to Syracuse and Vanderbilt.

9. Miami–the same 6-6 record as Miami.  Too bad Miami’s season was sandwiched between losses to Maryland and Boston College.

10.  Pittsburgh–the win over Syracuse to get to 6-6 gives them the easy edge.

11.  Syracuse–second-half of season collapse drops them from 5-2 to 5-7 and outside the bowl picture.

12.  Boston College–rallied at the end.

13. Duke–made some strides

14. Maryland–the less said, the better.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
04 Dec 2011

Clemson Wins ACC Championship, BCS Bound

Although they struggled down the stretch, the Clemson Tigers were able to wallop the Virginia Tech Hokies in the ACC Conference Championship Game, 38-10, to win the league’s BCS spot.  With the win, Clemson improves to 10-3 and will likely play West Virginia (9-3) in the Orange Bowl.

The amazing thing about this game is that there was no reason to think that Clemson would win.  Virginia Tech came into the game rolling, while Clemson was reeling.  After 30 minutes, the game was tied at 10.  That was the tempo that favored Virginia Tech. But Clemson exploded in the second-half, outscoring Virginia Tech 28-0.

On the one hand, this result is disappointing for the ACC because its BCS representative could have been a 12-1, top 5, Virginia Tech.  On the other hand, it is decent for the ACC to get some new blood into the championship mix.  Clemson will be well-supported in Miami for the Orange Bowl.  Clemson and West Virginia should be similarly ranked going into the game.  These are two football programs that support their team well and deserve a chance at some January attention.  It should be a great game too.

For Virginia Tech, they were 11-0 when not playing Clemson and 0-2 when playing the Tigers.  They had two chances to beat them–once at home and once at a neutral location–and failed to do so.  Clemson played a much tougher schedule.  While the overall records suggest otherwise, Clemson appears to be the better team.

The future is certainly bright for the Hokies.  Quarterback Logan Thomas is only a sophomore.  While the Hokies may lose Junior RB David Wilson, the ACC Player of the Year, he was certainly bottled up by Clemson in what was easily his worst game of the season.   He was held to 32 yards rushing and a mere 2.9 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, the Clemson offensive trio of Tajh Boyd, Andre Ellington, and Sammy Watkins rose to the occasion.  Each scored a touchdown in the second-half.  Overall, Boyd passed for three touchdowns and ran for one.  Ellington and Watkins rushed for 180 yards, providing Clemson the offensive balance.  And Clemson’s defense was outstanding all game long.

If only Clemson had taken care of business against NC State.  The ACC’s best teams need to improve on “holding serve.”  LSU and Alabama will likely play for the National Championship because they did not lose to teams that they were not supposed to lose to.  The ACC needs a team to step up to the plate in like fashion.  Ideally, the ACC would have a top 10 team representing itself in a BCS bowl.

But, for 2011-2012, credit Clemson for doing what it needed to do to earn the ACC’s BCS spot.  There is no question that they deserve to be there.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Game Review and tagged , , , , ,
02 Dec 2011

ACC Football Predictions for December 3, 2011

Here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Virginia Tech (11-1) v Clemson (9-3)

There is no compelling reason to pick Clemson here.  After clinching the spot in this game, Clemson has gone on cruise control–only to be destroyed by a mediocre North Carolina State and handled by a decent, but not great, South Carolina team.  Granted, Clemson beat Virginia Tech on the road.  But that was a long time ago.  Since then, Virginia Tech has been rolling, while Clemson has been struggling.  Even Clemson’s wins down the stretch were of a questionable ilk.  In contrast, Virginia Tech dominated Virginia.  There are playmakers for both teams, but Virginia Tech’s just have that much more oomph, including ACC Player of the Year David Wilson.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 27- Clemson 20.

BONUS GAME: Future ACC Member Syracuse (5-6) at Future ACC Member Pittsburgh (5-6):

Major bowl implications here.  And, by major, I mean that the winner becomes bowl eligible and might get selected to a bowl game that is played next Wednesday or something.  For the Big East, it is just pleasing that this is not their Championship Game.  No 6-6 team will ever get a BCS bid out of the Big East.  7-5?  Possible.  Stay tuned for Louisville.  Anyway, both of these teams are limping right now… Syracuse more so than Pittsburgh.  Both teams have demonstrated anemic offenses, despite seasoned quarterbacks.  Smart money says to go with Pittsburgh in a low scoring affair.  Therefore, the prediction is Syracuse 33-Pittsburgh 30.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.   Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
29 Nov 2011

Updated ACC Bowl Projections

With the 2011 football season coming to a close, the time is ripe to predict where the various ACC teams are headed for bowl purposes.  Here are The Confidential’s projections as of November 29, 2011:

ACC #1 goes to the Orange Bowl (BCS)-Miami, Florida to face another BCS team on January 4, 2012.

Last Year’s Matchup: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia. 

Explanation: Clemson is reeling.  Meanwhile, the odds are that Cincy will beat UConn, WVU will beat USF, and the voters will like West Virginia. 


ACC #2 goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta, Georgia to face the SEC #5 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Clemson vs. Auburn.   

ACC #3 goes to the Champ Sports Bowl-Orlando, Florida to face Big East #2 on December 29, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Florida State v Notre Dame (eligible to take Big East spot here once every four years)

ACC #4 goes to the Sun Bowl- El Paso, Texas to face Pac-12 #4 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia v Utah.

ACC #5 goes to the Belk Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina to face Big East #3 on December 27, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: South Florida 31, Clemson 26

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Georgia Tech v Louisville.

ACC #6 goes to the Music City Bowl-Nashville, Tennessee to face SEC #7 on December 30, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina v Florida

ACC #7 goes to the Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana to face MWC #3 on December 26, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Wake Forest v San Diego State

ACC #8 goes to the Military Bowl-Washington, DC, to face Navy on December 28, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina State v Cincinnati (Navy fails to qualify)

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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