The Confidential

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29 Nov 2012
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The College Expansion Game… is it Risk or is it Monopoly?

Everyone talks about college football as if it was a game of Risk.  Delaney and the Big 10 have the blue armies and are moving 10 of them to Kamchatka.  Slive and the SEC have the red armies, and will respond by trying to take Egypt.  Empire creation at its best.  Of course, some of those folks then turn around and say that the Big 10 and SEC are not competing against each other.  Huh–what Risk game involves cooperation?  The goal is to be the last one standing.  In any event, it is sad that college sports is no longer like Monopoly.

Yes, in the old days, college sports was like Monopoly.  The NCAA had the Monopoly of all the properties.  The value to a conference was driven not by the properties (i.e. the individual schools), but what could be done by acquiring all the similarly colored properties (i.e. forming conferences).  The Big 10 was the Dark Blues, with Michigan and Ohio State.  The Pac-12 was the Green properties.  No matter who played in the Rose Bowl, it was special.  Some conferences benefited by location–the Oranges and Reds have a little extra value because you might get sent to St. Charles Place and have to run them.  This is the equivalent to the Big East having the major metropolitan areas in basketball.  Or the SEC having the advantage of the key Southern, football-crazy areas.  Notably the game of Monopoly made the colored properties adjacent.  Indeed, being nearby your neighbors is valuable to a cohesive conference (notwithstanding the development of serious rivalries, of course).  Other than Notre Dame-USC, is there any rivalry that does not involve geographic proximity?  No.

Now, it’s all about a brand.  You might be able to make more money combining Boardwalk and Park Place, but Boardwalk would know its valuable and not want to be dragged down by Park Place.  Conferences are trying to build houses on Boardwalk and Marvin Gardens.  It works because the people paying are only focusing on the relative worth of the properties they are landing on… i.e. Boardwalk is a better property than Marvin Gardens.  The people paying do not realize that pairing Boardwalk with Park Place is more profitable than just Boardwalk alone.  Fans of conferences want to break off pieces of other conferences.  Fans of the Big 10 are drooling over North Carolina, forgetting that part of what makes North Carolina great is its rivalries with Duke, North Carolina State, and Virginia.  Sure, it’s a great school–but you cannot fabricate sports rivalries.  And you cannot just create a trophy and make it a rivalry.

The Confidential hopes that someday, the powers-that-be recognize that the real value in conferences was when they were geographically appropriate.  Perhaps they can figure out how to allow the revenues to be apportioned as per the current conferences, but go back to allowing schools to primarily play their neighbors.  More Penn State-Pittsburgh, and less Penn State-Iowa or Pittsburgh-Georgia Tech.

About the only thing we know is that, as of today, the Big East has Baltic Avenue.  Oh, and Connecticut Avenue.  And they had to mortgage Vermont Ave. to pay rent.  The ACC seems like the railroads–nice to have & pretty well spread out, but not generating enough money to keep up.  The SEC is now the Dark Blues–making plenty of money, and winning football and basketball titles regularly.  Or maybe the Big 10 is the Dark Blues.  It sure seems like the Big Ten Network is the “Chance” card sending someone to Boardwalk to make them wealthier every time it comes up.  And Rutgers just landed on Free Parking–from rags to riches on one roll of the dice.

In your game of College Sports/Expansion Monopoly… who is who?  Feel free to share your opinion.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Conference News, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , ,
28 Nov 2012
3 Comments

Possible ACC Expansion Vote on Wednesday

David Glenn of the ACC Sports Journal is reporting that the ACC will hold an expansion vote tomorrow.  As most are aware, an expansion vote requires 75% approval.  According to the report, five schools have expressed an interest: Louisville, UConn, Cincinnati, Navy, and South Florida.  Of these, Louisville has the best chance of being accepted, according to Glenn.

This does not mean that Louisville will get voted in.  Mark Blaudschun has tweeted that Louisville is currently one vote short.  The speculation is that North Carolina, Virginia, Duke, and/or Wake Forest are opposed to the move.  This means, of course, that the schools that care about football–Virginia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, and Miami–are in favor of the move.  One would think Boston College would be in favor of the move too, as it would prevent neighboring UConn from immediately joining.

While the Confidential understands that Virginia and North Carolina may be apprehensive about allowing a school of Louisville’s academic pedigree to join, the Confidential thinks that the better course of action is to invest in Louisville to make the adjustments to improve academically.  Associating with the ACC will improve Louisville’s reputation far more than any school’s reputation will be hurt.  And Louisville is an extremely competitive basketball program–picture Duke-Louisville and North Carolina-Louisville conference matchups.  With the ability to take football to the next level, this is really a home run for the ACC.

Some may say that this will cause Virginia to leave.  But if Virginia leaves over this, Virginia was looking for a reason to leave.  This move will stabilize the ACC (as much as that is possible in the current landscape), which should be in the interests of all ACC institutions.  Making Florida State happy is, you know, probably a good idea.

So if the ACC adds Louisville, then this will be a happy day for everyone south of Storrs.  As the musical chairs continues, there is no reason to think that this would be the last move.  UConn will end up somewhere eventually, especially if there are further defections from the ACC.

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Conference Realignment, Football, Opinion and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
27 Nov 2012
3 Comments

College Fooball Head Coach Firings: Really?

Stepping aside from the ACC for a moment, the Confidential cannot help but wonder what the heck is going on with college football head coach firings?  Then again, as the Big Ten becomes the Pied Piper to the rest of college football’s money-obsessed rats, there is no reason to be shocked by two of the most surprising coaching firings in recent history.

First, the most offensive of all firings is the dismissal of Jon Embree at Colorado.  Look, the Confidential routinely noted that the Buffaloes were the worst BCS-level program.  Nothing that happened on the field gives the fans any reason for optimism–the team was outclassed week after week.  But you just cannot fire a coach after two seasons.  Indeed, as ESPN’s Ted Miller noted, the school really could not articulate a basis for firing him.  Frankly, firing a football coach after two years should be a terminable offense for whomever hired the coach.  If the athletic director hired a guy that could not last more than two years, the athletic director is even more incompetent than the head coach.  Short of a scandal of some sort, it just does not make long-term sense.  Can anyone name another head coach fired based on record after only two seasons?

Even worse, Colorado did this to an African-American man and a former Colorado player.  In light of the latter, he should have had a little more latitude.  As it relates to race, this is just yet another example of an NCAA head coach being given a shorter time to turn a program around than comparable white coaches.  Sure, Jon Embree was 4-21.  But Greg Schiano was 3-20 after two seasons.  Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz was 4-19 after two seasons.  It is statistically more likely, Embree would have been a Greg Robinson, who was only 5-18 at Syracuse after two seasons and ended up winning only 5 more games.   But Colorado will never know whether Embree was a Ferentz or a Robinson.  Colorado and the NCAA should be ashamed.  The Confidential is loathe to suggest racism, but to not give a head coach at least three years is simply absurd.  Really, the Confidential does not see why any African-American family would allow their son to go to Colorado after its treatment of Embree.  And good luck to the next coach explaining to kids and their families that they can be sure that he will be the Buffaloes’ head coach for the full four or five years that the kid is in Colorado.

Second, Auburn fired head coach Gene Chizik a mere two years after winning a National Championship.  Granted, many Auburn fans never liked the hire.  After all, Chizik was only 5-19 at Iowa State.  Notably, unlike Colorado with Embree, Iowa State was going to give Chizik more time to turn around the program.  Instead, he turned Auburn around.  This culminated with winning it all in 2010.  To be sure, that 2010 team was special.  It had to have significant talent beyond merely Cam Newton–a QB alone can only carry a team so far.  Chizik and his staff were able to go 14-0 against an SEC schedule.  Regardless of how much talent you have, to go 14-0 suggests some significant ability to coach the game of football.  After all, how many programs have gone undefeated?

In fairness to Auburn, however, the recruitment of Newton and other issues were becoming a bit of a scandal for Auburn.  This is perhaps more important than mere record.  Even if Chizik was bowl-bound this year, a program has to avoid sanctions.  So the firing is justifiable from that standpoint–certainly more so than with Embree.  Again, however, the issue might hurt Auburn in recruiting unless it can land a home run with its new coach.

Finally, the Confidential would be remiss in failing to observe that North Carolina State and Purdue fired head coaches after winning games and being bowl-eligible.  For Purdue, Danny Hope got Purdue to two straight bowl games for the first time in several years, according to ESPN, but was not allowed to even coach the team in the bowl game.  He took over a team that had gone 4-8 the prior year, never finished with a worse record, and did better than that in three seasons.  Not good enough?  For North Carolina State, it is frustrating to beat a great team every year, but also lose head-scratchers.  Still, you have to be really careful before firing a head coach that has taken you to three straight bowl games, like Tom O’Brien had done.   Fans and programs need to be careful before dispatching a coach because of “mediocrity.”

Indeed, fans of programs disappointed in the average records often complain that the new guy “cannot do any worse,” as if mediocrity is bottoming-out.  Syracuse fans thought that the .500ish records of Paul Pasqualoni were too much to swallow.  And then they hired the aforementioned Robinson, who showed that things can get worse.  Much worse.  Perhaps the best example is Southern Mississippi, who forced head coach Jeff Bower to resign after 14 straight winning seasons and six straight bowl appearances.  Fans and boosters were unhappy with the mediocrity.  The end result?  Southern Mississippi continued to go to bowl games under head coach Larry Fedora, but then watched him abandon the program for North Carolina before the 2012 season.  Unlike Bower, Fedora was not interested in being a lifer at Southern Mississippi.  In 2012, the team went 0-12.  Enjoy THAT fans and boosters.  Mediocrity can get worse.

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion and tagged , , , ,

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