The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

ACC to Relocate Championship Games from North Carolina

Brian Hamilton of Sports Illustrated has reported that the “ACC will relocate all neutral-site championships for 2016-17 from North Carolina, due to HB2 law,” including this statement:

Not really much to say here.  After several decades of television, movies, music videos, and atheists running educational institutions, what else can be expected?  On the one hand, you have fools that believe that a man should be able to dress like a woman and go into the womens bathroom.  On the other hand, you have fools who want to force that same man out of the womens bathroom where their daughters are and into the mens room where their sons are.  And here comes the ACC to pick a side of fools.

 

ACC Football Rankings: Week 2-3

Each week, the Confidential will rank the top 15 teams (includes Notre Dame) in the A.C.C. and provide a brief explanation for the decision.  Feel free to list your own below or otherwise comment.  Here it goes for the week between Weeks 2 and 3:

  1. Clemson.  The Tigers did not look impressive against Troy, barely winning 30-24.  Troy did win their first game, however, by 40+ points.  So maybe this is a better than expected Troy team.  Regardless, Clemson gets the nod here because of its win AT the Auburn Tigers, which is the best win of the top 3 teams.
  2. Florida State.  The Seminoles took care of its FCS opponent, Charleston Southern, 52-8.  Coupled with a win on a neutral site against Ole Miss, FSU is a clear #2.  Whether they keep it after this week is another story.
  3. Louisville.  As good as Louisville looked in beating Charlotte, they looked even better beating Syracuse.  But Syracuse is no Auburn or Ole Miss.  So Louisville will have to earn its surge up these standings on the field… which comes this week in a game against Florida State.  Lamar Jackson is the real deal.  The Louisville defense looks stout.  Not only is Louisville “capable” of winning, Louisville may actually take it to the Seminoles.  We’ll see.
  4. Miami.  Miami continued its parade of games against middling Florida opponents, beating Florida Atlantic, 38-10.  With Kaaya at QB, the Hurricanes get to keep their slot–even if the true tests do not come until later.
  5. Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets are 2-0, adding a win over Mercer to their resume.  Vanderbilt is up next–we shall see what happens.
  6. North Carolina. The Tar Heels went to Illinois and won–and, although Mac teams seem to do it every year–for a P5 team to win at a Big 10 school is always worthy of maintaining its spot in the standings.  So, we keep UNC here.
  7. Notre Dame.  Notre Dame beat Nevada, entitling it to also keep its place in the standings.  Next up for the Fighting Irish is Michigan State.  We’ll learn a lot about Notre Dame’s fortunes this week.
  8. Wake Forest.  Although most ACC power rankings had Wake Forest low, they had a win over Tulane, whereas other schools had wins over F.C.S. opponents.  Well, the Demon Deacons went to Duke and got another win.  At 2-0, with a win over Duke, Wake Forest deserves its #8 ranking all the more.  It stays ahead of Pitt by having a road win.  Not sure Penn State is any better than Duke.
  9. Pittsburgh.  5 teams were tied for #10 last week because they were 1-0 with a win against an FCS opponent.  only one pulled out a victory in Week 2, as the Panthers beat Penn State, albeit at home.  A win over Penn State has to be enough to put a 2-0 team ahead of a 1-1 team.
  10. Boston College.  Boston College is 1-1, with a loss to Georgia Tech and a win over UMass–an FBS opponent.  Despite the win, B.C. at 1-1 with a win over UMass simply cannot be atop Pitt with a win over Penn State.
  11. Virginia Tech.  There are 4 ACC teams at 1-1 with a win over an FCS foe only.  Of them, Virginia Tech lost on a neutral site to a top 15 team in Tennessee.  This is more impressive, or less unimpressive, than the other three teams combined loss/win characteristics.  Ergo, the Hokies get the nod.
  12. Syracuse.  The Orange “D” was atrocious against Louisville, but the Cardinals may make a lot of defenses look atrocious.  Compared to Duke losing at home to Wake Forest and NC State losing to East Carolina, Syracuse gets the #12 spot this week.
  13. NC State.  East Carolina may or may not be “better” than Wake Forest, but Duke lost at home, while NC State lost on the road.  Both teams were playing in-school opponents, but this loss just seems more understandable overall.  Edge to the Pack.
  14. Duke.  Look, losing to Wake Forest at home is not the end of the world, but it might just show that the Duke surge of recent years may be waning.
  15. Virginia.  The only 0-2 team–Virginia looked better against Oregon than Richmond.  Perhaps the Spiders are better than the Ducks?  Well, this happens from time-to-time.  At least there is some momentum for the Wahoos–who do have prior history to look at in terms of FCS losses and rebounds.

So, what do you think?  Should we have re-arranged Clemson, Florida State, and Louisville?  Are you finally ready to believe that Wake Forest is top 8?  

Monday Sermon: Cheerleading and Nakedness

This is a new series considering the sports world in light of Biblical morality.  It would be great if sports could be a Godly diversion without delving deeply into that which is ungodly.  To be sure, the Confidential is not a pastor.  But this is just Bible scripture being quoted and compared to modern life anyway.  If you have any ideas for topics, or would like to be a guest author for this or a similar subject, please feel free to send a direct message on Twitter (@acconfi). 

There are several instances where the Bible discusses nakednesss.  For example, in Exodus 28:42: “And thou shalt make them linen breeches to cover their nakedness; from the loins even unto the thighs they shall reach . . .”  Isaiah 47:2-3, adds “Take the millstones, and grind meal: uncover thy locks, make bare the leg, uncover the thigh, pass over the rivers.  Thy nakedness shall be uncovered, yea, thy shame shall be seen.”  Exodus and Isaiah certainly suggest that exposing the thighs is exposing one’s nakedness.  And up until a few decades ago, this seemed to be a concept that Christians and non-Christians alike shared as a general moral compass for our society.  Not any more.  But the Bible speaks for itself.  And, if God believes that exposing the thighs is being naked, what does this say about female cheerleading outfits?  It says that female cheerleaders today are naked.

In other words, if you are a female cheerleader today, you are a naked person in public, at least in God’s eyes.  If you are a parent of a cheerleader, you are a parent of a girl/woman who exposes her nakedness to all that are watching.   And, yes, this means that NBA players in the 1970’s were naked too.  This is a standard that applies to both genders–male and female–do not expose your nakedness by exposing your thighs.

Of course, are cheerleaders even necessary?  In a sports-world where NFL fans fight each other in the stands (occasionally killing each other), is there really any need for folks to be “led” into “cheering” for their team?  If anything, the sports idolatry and media hype make people over-cheered.  But even assuming that cheerleading is somehow necessary, why does it involve scantily-clad women being part of it?  Does an athlete really require scantily-clad women gyrating on the sidelines to perform his job?  If a doctor was accompanied by a “dance team” of bikini-clad women, would it inspire confidence or cause you to question the doctor’s sanity?  If a professor stopped a lecture to take a 3 minute break–and then some scantily-clad women and accompanied men came in to dance and gyrate–would it make any sense at all?  And if other professions and tasks do not require cheerleaders, why does sports?

But many self-proclaimed Christians seem to be OK with cheerleading.  “What is the harm?”  Well, would you find it harmful if they were wearing zero clothes?  If not, then perhaps this says more about whether you are truly Christian or even moral at all.  If so, what is the basis for drawing that distinction?  In God’s eyes, there is no discernible difference between wearing “no clothes” and wearing a bikini bottom or even exposing your thighs.  So why do YOU draw that distinction?  Is it only because you are bombarded with television, movies, music videos, Internet images, and such that desensitized you to reality?  Like the frog that does not sense when the water goes from cold to deathly boiling, the gradual increase in acceptable nakedness was not perceptible absent a discerning eye.  Wake up!

And people are watching–whether they want to or not.  And this is probably worse on television than in person.  From the nosebleed seats, it is hard to tell what is going on down on the sideline of the field.  But the television cameras do not hesitate to show cheerleaders.  In fact, they seem to love to zoom into a cheerleaders groin area while she is being lifted into the air by some male cheerleader.  Even as a non-Christian, isn’t that just a little creepy?  If you asked someone to take a picture of your family, and that person zoomed onto anyone’s groin area–would you not find that creepy?  So why are we zooming in on a cheerleader’s bikini area during television games?  Because you are being programmed to convert your moral compass away from the Biblical morality.  And if that fails, it will at least corrupt you and lead you into sin one way or another.

Whether on television or at the game, a mature, Christian man of faith will look away, and certainly not look twice and thrice (or lust) at these naked girls/women.  But boys and men of different spirituality or lesser maturity will not just look but lust.  In those instances, the nakedness leads males toward sin and destruction.  And what about the young girls?  Young girls will look at the naked cheerleaders and assume that this must be acceptable…after all… it is happening in front of tens to tens of thousands of people, including their parents and perhaps even the parents of these cheerleaders, and not be reproved or rebuked.  This teaches them to grow up assuming that their thighs are to be freely shown to all.  This, of course, is fine with worldly people.  But if you are a Christian, can you truly find it “fine” without also having to disagree with the letter and spirit of the Bible?

And why is it that cheerleaders must be naked anyway?  This is not inherent to the concept of cheerleading somehow.  Here is a photo of cheerleaders from several decades ago that were feminine, yet covered their nakedness:

Is there anything remotely wrong with the apparel of these cheerleaders?  It is appropriately modest.  The nakedness is covered up, without interfering with the dubiously-necessary cheerleading activities.

But do not try to find cheerleading photos of the past few decades that are similarly modest.  Even in looking for this old photo, the Internet first bombards one with images of cheerleaders wearing bikinis and having feet in the sky exposing the bikini area.  Even assuming you disagree with the Bible regarding thighs as nakedness, how do you defend the focus on the groin?  And how and why is this considered acceptable and normal?  It is shameful and absurd.  And this is all without even considering the abomination that is cheerleaders for professional athletes–which from the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders and in every direction otherwise–is really just tolerated-pornography in terms of clothing and actions.  But high school and college cheerleading alone is absurd.

If you disagree, ask yourself why?  Why is is worth fighting over the right for young girls/women to expose their nakedness?  Why is it worth fighting over your right to see young girls and women expose their nakedness?  Is your sinful mind not creative enough to find sources of nakedness without having it also show up in every aspect of life–be it a candy bar commercial or a sporting event?  More importantly–ask yourself who are you disagreeing with?  This is not the Confidential’s book that the Confidential is referencing for the source of nakedness–it is the Bible.  And, while you are certainly given the free will to disregard the Bible, understand that you are really just  disagreeing with God.  The Confidential merely passes this along for you to consider… hopefully wisely.

Indeed, the Confidential is certainly not able or capable of changing the world.  If you like seeing naked cheerleaders, fear not–the Confidential is not under any illusion or delusion that they will be going away any time soon.  The Confidential is just similarly not under any illusion or delusion with respect to what God and the Bible have to say on the subject: modern cheerleaders are naked.

Confidential Survivor Pool Update: Week 3

Unfortunately, two games into the double-elimination season, a few entrants have been eliminated.  This week’s carnage was caused by a single game–the Duke loss to Wake Forest.  That caused six entrants to receive strikes, two of whom suffered strikes in Week 1.  That means 34 entrants remain.

As we move on to Week 3, here is an interesting chart as to which teams have been used or not used:

Team Survivors Who Haven’t Picked This Team
1. Georgia Tech (2-0) 15
2. Syracuse (1-1) 20
3. Duke (1-1) 25
4. Wake Forest (2-0) 27
5. Boston College (1-1) 27
6. Louisville (2-0) 32
7. No Carolina St. (1-1) 32
8. Virginia (0-2) 32
9. Miami Fla (2-0) 32
10. North Carolina (1-1) 33
11. Virginia Tech (1-1) 33
12. Clemson (2-0) 33
13. Notre Dame (1-1) 33
14. Pittsburgh (2-0) 34
15. Florida St. (2-0) 34

Nobody has used Pitt or Florida State, while only one entrant over two weeks has used UNC, Va Tech, Clemson, and Notre Dame.  Louisville and Miami have only been used by two entrants.

As we move to Week 3, the strategy will become more apparent.  9 ACC teams face a P5 opponent, while Syracuse plays South Florida and Miami travels to App State.  If this was Week 6, you might be forced to pick a team playing a P5 opponent.  On the other hand, saving Florida State for Week 10 is great, but being eliminated in Week 4 is not going to help that cause.

In any event, good luck to everyone in Week 3!

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 1/2

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, some of the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 1) and the Week that will be (Week 2) for the ACC and their respective schools.

Q1: What stands out about your school’s performance last week?
Harrison Huntley (NC State): The emergence of Ryan Finley was the big story of Week 1. The biggest question mark State had was at QB. The coaching staff wouldn’t name a starter, and made it clear that the battle would be decided on the field. I don’t know if it’s been announced yet, but Finley has to get the nod after his performance last week. He went 17-21 with 174 yards and 2 TD’s. Contrast that with Jalen McClendon’s 6-9, 88 yd and an interception, Finley seems to have ended the debate.
Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): The fact that Syracuse was able to play so fast in their first game under Dino Babers.  Although he claimed it was slow, it was fast enough for Bobby Petrino to make comments that drew the ire of numerous Syracuse blogs.  See e.g. here.  Look, Syracuse offense has been an “issue” for most of the post-Pasqualoni era.  Under Greg Robinson, getting first downs was exciting.  The latter part of the Doug Marrone era was a pro-style offense that moved the ball decently, but there were other times when wins came by defense.  Scott Shafer’s offenses had some moments, but also had some not so great moments, but remained a defense-first program.  The idea of having an offensive-first philosophy has not been the case in a long, long time.  That it also happens to be fast paced and tailored to the Carrier Dome is exciting.  That it worked pretty well against Colgate stood out.
Q2: What are you looking to see out of your school this week?
Harrison Huntley (NC State): Wolfpack fans have made it clear that the team needs to leave Greenville with a win. There doesn’t seem to be any expectations in terms of stats, all that will matter is what is on the scoreboard. It’s the risk you take playing these kinds of games. A win over ECU won’t make many headlines, but a loss certainly would.
Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): Well, the offense looked good (not great) against Colgate.  How will it look against bigger, stronger, faster, smarter athletes?  A few Dungey passes were just missed by Colgate defenders.  Against Louisville, that will be a Pick Six.  A few other passes were caught because of superior athleticism.  That will not happen in any other game.  So… how good will Syracuse’s offense be against a very good opponent?  We’ll be looking at that very closely.
Q3: Did any other ACC team impress you this week?  If so, who and why?
Harrison Huntley (NC State): I was pleasantly surprised with how well Florida State played, especially after trailing by so much. They seem to have solved their QB problem as well with Francois, and the defense played on another level in the second half. I still think NC State will win that one in Raleigh, but they looked very impressive in that second half.
Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): Miami.  I do not  care who the opponent is, when you put up points like that, you are doing something right.  And, for Miami, it is all the more important that they get some swagger back.  If the conference is going to be FSU, Clemson, and a diminutive dozen, so be it.  But Miami being an elite program would be good for the ACC by both restoring balance to the divisions and making the conference look better to outsiders.  Miami has had good moments in the past, to be sure.  The issue is whether Richt will carry it through week after week.  We will see.
Q4: As of the season to date, who are you projecting in the college football playoff? 
Harrison Huntley (NC State): Alabama, Clemson/FSU, Michigan/Ohio State, Houston.
Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, and Oregon.  Florida State, Michigan, and Houston are all in the hunt obviously.  But Houston was upset by UConn last year–there is little room for error this year.  If it comes down to 1-loss teams from major conferences–unless Houston’s only loss is to a Louisville team that is also in the playoffs, it is hard to see Houston making it in.  Florida State and Michigan would be excluded based on head-to-head results.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

ACC Football Rankings: Week 1-2

Each week, the Confidential will rank the top 15 teams (includes Notre Dame) in the A.C.C. and provide a brief explanation for the decision.  Feel free to list your own below or otherwise comment.  Here it goes for the week between Weeks 1 and 2:

  1. Clemson.  The Tigers get the nod here because they did not fall way behind against Auburn.  That gives them a slight edge over Florida State.
  2. Florida State.  Again, Clemson looked slightly better in beating Auburn, but Florida State certainly dominated the second half.  Then again, the opposite happened in the first half.  These things will sort themselves out in due time.
  3. Louisville.  We are having some fun at Bobby Petrino’s expense, and others have REALLY taken him to task, but Louisville looked real, real good in beating Charlotte.  The Confidential may have under-valued Louisville by a win.  Still, need to take care of business against upstart Syracuse.
  4. Miami.  With a lot of teams beating FCS opponents, the nod has to go to a team beating an FBS opponent, even if a lesser opponent, but a substantial margin.
  5. Georgia Tech.  The Yellow Jackets beat Boston College, but it is possible that “hapless” may end up being a modifier for Boston College this year.  Then again, the Eagles have a pathetically easy schedule.  So we’ll slot Ga Tech behind Louisville and Miami, but ahead of the other winners.  Also skeptical that Georgia Tech can stay here, while the above teams have more perceived staying power.
  6. North Carolina. This came down to a battle between Notre Dame and North Carolina for the 6th spot, with the Tar Heels taking the edge this week.  Georgia was primed for a victory under its new coach and had a home field advantage (despite a technically neutral location).  If UNC cannot topple Illinois, could be a big step back for the Tar Heels this year.
  7. Notre Dame.  Losing to Texas usually is not shameful.  Losing to Charlie Strong usually is not shameful.  But the recent struggles suggest otherwise.  Plus, Texas played Notre Dame last year, so there should have been some familiarity.  Edge to the Tar Heels.
  8. Wake Forest.  On the one hand, Wake Forest beat Tulane–a well coached team in the American.  On the other hand, Tulane’s not a defensive team and the Demon Deacons mustered only 7 points.  On yet another hand, Wake Forest BEAT an FBS foe.  SO we give them #8.
  9. Boston College.  If losing to Texas and Georgia are enough to keep UNC and Notre Dame above Georgia Tech, what about losing to Georgia Tech?  Well, B.C. just did not look good enough to inspire confidence.  But fair is fair.
  10. Pittsburgh/Virginia Tech/Syracuse/Duke/NC State.  Rather than try to separate them this week, we can just lump them together into one slot–as they all did what they needed to against FCS opponents.
  11. Virginia.  If beating an FCS foe is unimpressive, losing to one is disastrous.  Being blown out is indescribable.  The easiest ranking of the week is Virginia in last.

So, what do you think?  Should we have dropped Wake Forest and BC behind the FCS beaters?  Swapped Clemson/FSU?  Let us know.

ACC Football Stockwatch: Buy, Sell, and Hold

After one week, all those local newspaper “puff pieces” are reduced to the compost bin.  Everyone has games to talk about now.  And the ACC football teams have each played one game each.  So who are you buying, selling, and holding?  Here are a few teams for each category.

BUY

Louisville.  The Confidential took some slack for using a 7.5 win over/under.  And the Confidential still does not think that Louisville will beat FSU, Clemson, or Houston.  So all it takes is one upset to get Louisville down to 8 wins. And maybe that upset will come this week against Syracuse.  But, make no mistake, Louisville has a very good team.  70 points against any FBS foe is worth taking not of.  And Lamar Jackson looks like the real deal.

Miami.  Like Louisville, Miami beat its week 1 opponent handily. The win is not as impressive as the way that the team won.  The Hurricanes need to get their swagger back… for the sake of the ACC as a whole.  The Coastal has been far too unimpressive.  Perhaps Miami can change that.

Syracuse.  Unlike Louisville and Miami, Syracuse only managed to score 33 points.  And that was against an FCS foe.  But Dino Babers is bringing a new offensive system that may help Syracuse improve on “holding serve” against peer opponents, and perhaps even sneak up on someone for an upset.  The theme was that this was a long-term investment, but maybe there will be some short-term dividends in the Carrier Dome in 2016.

SELL

Virginia.  Sorry Wahoos.  Brono might build something at UVa, but losing to Richmond convincingly was a horrible way to start and makes it likely that it is already “on to 2017.”   If Virginia was a stock, you would want to put it in the safe deposit box for a few years.  You definitely do not want to be checking the quotes on a daily basis.

Notre Dame.  Amazingly, the Fighting Irish are not out of the playoff picture.  But, unless Texas has a great season, Notre Dame will likely find itself on the outside looking in–even at 11-1.  So that makes it a tough way to start the season.  And now Notre Dame has no margin for error.

HOLD

Clemson and Florida State.  Both teams defeated SEC foes, albeit not in a way to inspire a substantial amount of confidence.  Florida State needed to rally, while Clemson was a Hail Mary away from losing.  Still, both played solid opponents and deserve credit for pulling out wins.  These teams will get better.  These two teams are stocks that were battered last week, giving the potential for a short-term quick profit when they round into form.  Both are in the hunt for a playoff spot until you hear otherwise.

Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech.  These two schools are in contention for a Coastal… look, everyone but Virginia can win the Coastal.  But Pitt had a great season last year and Virginia Tech has some new juice with its new coach.  That makes them sneaky picks to edge the field.  Both looked good, but not great, in their openers.  Both play tough OOC games this week.  If they can pull off wins this week, you have to slide both up into Coastal contenders.  If they lose, they will still be contenders, but you will have that much more doubt.  So, see how this week goes.

What do you think?  Who would you put in for each category?

 

Confidential Survivor Pool Update

Well, with a double-elimination format, nobody was eliminated in Week 1.  Of the 36 participants, all move on to Week 2.

Still, a few folks suffered their first loss.  Three entrants thought that Virginia was a safe bet against FCS neighbor Richmond (more on Virginia here), but suffered a first strike.  And one entrant took the risk of selecting Notre Dame in its opener against Texas.

As we move on to Week 2, here is an interesting chart as to which teams have been used or not used:

Team Survivors Who Haven’t Picked This Team
1. Syracuse (1-0) 22
2. Wake Forest (1-0) 29
3. Duke (1-0) 31
4. Virginia (0-1) 33
5. Georgia Tech (1-0) 34
6. No Carolina St. (1-0) 34
7. Virginia Tech (1-0) 35
8. Louisville (1-0) 35
9. Notre Dame (0-1) 35
10. Miami Fla (1-0) 36
11. Boston College (0-1) 36
12. Pittsburgh (1-0) 36
13. North Carolina (0-1) 36
14. Florida St. (1-0) 36
15. Clemson (1-0) 36

Nobody has used Miami, BC, Pitt, North Carolina, FSU, or Clemson yet.  UNC, Florida State, and Clemson are wise abstains, as they were playing SEC foes (going 2-1!!!).  And BC opened against Georgia Tech–a difficult first game.  Not sure why nobody opted for Miami or Pitt though.

As we move to Week 2, it will be interesting to see how many folks will strategically opt for non-elite schools Georgia Tech (Mercer) and Boston College (UMass) in games that obviously should be wins.  Recall that Georgia Tech has had some close calls in recent years–in the 2014 Orange Bowl victory season, the Yellow Jackets beat Wofford 38-19, beat Tulane 38-21, and then only eked by Georgia Southern 42-38.  In contrast, the Yellow Jackets opened up the 2015 season by beating up on Alcorn State and Tulane, only to finish the season 3-9 (also losing to Virginia along the way).  Boston College, meanwhile, thumped UMass 30-7 in their last matchup.

Anyway, the strategy is yours.  Saving Florida State for Week 10 is great, but being eliminated in Week 4 is not going to help that cause.

Good luck to everyone in Week 2!

Virginia Hits Rock Bottom Against Richmond

If you are a Virginia sports fan, you thought that the football team had hit rock bottom.  You fired a decent football coach in Mike London, who recruited well but failed to win games on the field.  You hired a well-known coach in Bronco Mendenhall away from Brigham Young.  You were ready to begin a new era.  And then you learned that there was a new level to “rock bottom,” with an embarrassing loss to FCS neighbor Richmond, 37-20.

Yes, the FCS-level Spiders beat Virginia by 17 points.  This was not a FG for the win situation.  And Virginia is not just an FBS team, it is an FBS team in a P5 conference.  How often does any of this happen?  Rarely.  But, take some comfort Virginia fans, you are not even the first ACC school to be embarrassed by an FCS opponent in the modern era.  Footballgeography.com lists a few recent examples:

  • In 1999, Furman beat North Carolina 28-3.  That is a larger margin, and a far more futile offensive showing by the Tar Heels.  This same UNC team was pretty bad, but also manager to finish the season by beating both NC State and Duke.
  • In 2006, Richmond shutout Duke, 13-0.  Sure, that Duke defense did a better job than Virginia yesterday.  But to be SHUTOUT by an FCS foe is beyond shameful.
  • In 2012, current ACC school Pittsburgh–then a Big East team–lost to Youngstown State 31-17.  Similar score, similar margin.

So, while it is rare, it does happen that an ACC school will get thumped by an FCS foe.

Outside of the ACC, it has also happened.  In 2011, North Dakota State beat Minnesota 37-24.  In 2006, New Hampshire beat Northwestern 34-17.  In 1996, Montana beat Oregon State 35-14.  And so on.  The past twenty years have seen a number of comfortable wins by FCS opponents over FBS P5 foes.  Outside of the P5, last year Portland State beat North Texas 66-7, resulting in the firing of North Texas’s head coach immediately after the game.  And, for whatever its worth, South Florida lost to McNeese State 53-21 in 2013 in Willie Taggert’s debut, only to stay within 15 points against a 13-1 Michigan State team the following week.  They say the most improvement is done between weeks 1 and 2, and apparently that was the case.  And it may be for the 2016 Virginia Cavaliers.

And the good news is that it usually means that “rock bottom” has been hit.  The 1999 UNC loss was dreadful, but UNC was 6-5 the next year and in the Peach Bowl in 2001.  Duke would lose to Richmond two more times (2009 and 2011), (and would be generally horrible from 2006 to 2008 at 5-31), but go bowling from 2012 to 2015.  Pitt actually went to bowl game in 2012, and has gone bowling every year since.  The great thing about “rock bottom” is that it usually cannot get worse.

So, while rock bottom is not a fun place to be, it is at the very least the “cannot get any worse” place.  For Virginia fans, that means the future is necessarily brighter than the present.

 

 

The Confidential’s ACC Football Roundtable: Week 1

Every week, some or all of the Confidential’s correspondents will “roundtable” issues regarding the ACC, as well as recapping the week that was and previewing the week to come.  As we are just hours away from the season starting, we are looking forward exclusively this week.

Q1: Which ACC team is the biggest risk for being an upset victim in Week 1?

Steve Callahan (Notre Dame):  Pittsburgh Panthers.  Many ACC teams play weak competition in week 1, with teams like Charlotte, Liberty, William & Mary, and Florida A&M lined up to face ACC teams. I’ll go with the Pittsburgh Panthers to possibly falling victim an upset to the Villanova Wildcats. Even though they are a FCS team, the Wildcats have talent on the offensive side of the ball and will looking to upset their in-state opponent to send a message in week one.

Harrison Huntley (NC State): Hard to say what is and isn’t an upset this early in the season, but we do know that Clemson is in a lot of playoff projections, and this isn’t a gimme with Auburn. This is an SEC team that runs the kind of offense that is tough to prepare for. Sure they had the whole offseason, but the Tigers probably have other things to worry about.

Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): Syracuse better be very, very ready for Colgate, an experienced team.  Not a gimme.  I disagree with Villanova only because I think Pitt under Narduzzi is the real deal.  They may not win the Coastal, but this is not the typical mediocre Pitt coaching hire.  So I will go with Tulane over Wake Forest.  Assuming the former Georgia Southern coaches can implement some semblance of what they did before at Tulane, Wake Forest may get itself into a shootout.  If so, could be trouble.

Q2: What are the three things your school’s team must do to win in Week 1?

Steve Callahan (Notre Dame): With Notre Dame kicking the season off at Texas, the Fighting Irish must take the excitement out of the crowd and score first. If they can build an early lead and have the Longhorns play catch up, they will be in better position to win. The second key to victory is to put pressure on true freshman quarterback Shane Buechele early and often. The third key is to get the ball in the hands of captain Torii Hunter Jr.’s hands, as he will set the stone for the otherwise young receiving corps the Irish have.

Harrison Huntley (NC State): 3 things? I hope it doesn’t take 3 things to beat William and Mary. They beat State in basketball, so I guess it isn’t out of the question, but there’s no reason this shouldn’t be a win. I’m a big FCS guy, and W&M isn’t North Dakota State. More than 3 things would have to go horribly wrong for this to be a loss.

Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): Syracuse is many years past where it could look past an FCS school.  This is just reality.  Villanova should have beaten Syracuse and Colgate may be more primed to pull an upset.  Syracuse will need to avoid turnovers–which give instant life to an opponent.  While most will be concerned about Syracuse looking past Colgate, what is even more important is that Syracuse use its superior athletes–bigger players should push around smaller players, faster players should play faster than slower players–and so on.  Up to the coaches to use the size and speed advantages.  And then, of course, fundamentals…block, tackle, hang on to the ball, avoid penalties…. amazing how often that matters.

Q3: What would have to happen for your school to lose in Week 1?

Steve Callahan (Notre Dame): The Fighting Irish would have to come out unfocused and nervous to lose in week one, as a defense with six starters should feast against a true freshman quarterback in his first start.

Harrison Huntley (NC State): There’s no QB1 or QB2 on the depth chart, so both would have to play terrible. Add on some injuries to the running game, and the defense would just have to implode.

Anthony Caffrey (Syracuse): It would not take much, sadly.  If Syracuse is turnover prone or allows a special teams touchdown, it could be game on.  If Syracuse starts slow, Colgate will stay in the game that much longer.  In the end, if you give an FCS team reason for hope, expect them to run with it.  We have seen it far too many times at Syracuse–from Coach P losing to Rutgers/Temple when they were miserably awful… to Doug Marrone allowing Maine to hang in there… to Scott Shafer nearly losing to Villanova.  And, of course, we see it every year during the Big Dance (looking at you, Middle Tennessee State).

Well, that is what these correspondents think.  What do you think?  Please feel free to share below.  And if you are interested in being a correspondent, see here.

Post Navigation