The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the category “Stockwatch”

ACC Football Stockwatch: Buy, Sell, and Hold

After six weeks, the ACC is down to one undefeated team (Clemson).  A bunch of teams are battling to be in the top half of the conference.  If these teams were stock, who are you buying, selling, and holding?  Here are a few teams for each category.

BUY

Notre Dame.  What?  At 1-3, things were worrisome.  Splitting NC State and Syracuse means 2-4.  But will Notre Dame finish 4-8?  Probably not.  With 5 home games left, there is plenty of time to right the ship.  A wounded and vulnerable Stanford team comes to town next, with Army and Navy looming.  A bowl might be tough, however, as the remaining schedule is Miami (H), Virginia Tech (H), and disappointing Southern Cal (A).  Still, things should get better, right?  A buy low opportunity.

Louisville.  At 4-1, Louisville has scored 290 points.  Can they get better?  Well, maybe not better… but they have gotten past the Florida State/Clemson part of the schedule.  The only highly ranked team left on the schedule is Houston, who just lost to Navy.  The remaining six teams certainly could pull an upset, as is the nature of the game.  But they would be major upsets: Duke, NC State, Boston College, Virginia, Wake Forest, Kentucky.  The college football scoring record is 723 points (Florida State in 14 games).  Louisville is on pace to score 754 if they play 13 games (which seems quite likely).

SELL

Syracuse.  Look, Dino Babers may have Syracuse on the right track.  But, like the rebuilds at other schools, the dividends will not be paying off this year.  Absent an upset, the only real winnable game left on the schedule is Boston College–a road game where B.C. will have 15 days to prepare.  2-10 or 3-9 is far from out of the question.

Boston College.  At 3-3, B.C. would need a 3-3 finish to go bowling. They host Syracuse and UConn, which is nice.  But where does that sixth win come from?  A trip to NC State–possible.  Louisville?  Um, no.  A trip to Florida State?  Unlikely.  A trip to Wake Forest?  See above regarding the Demon Deacons.  And if Syracuse is going to win ANY game this year, it is the B.C. game.  Meanwhile, UConn will be VERY interested and motivated to beat B.C.  A bowl is looking unlikely, even with one of the softest OOC schedules possible.

HOLD

Wake Forest.  At 5-1, Wake Forest is in the drivers seat for a bowl game, and possibly a very good bowl game.  The Demon Deacons still have games with Virginia, Army, and Boston College.  Even assuming losses to Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson, 8-4 is on the table.  Getting to six wins would have been impressive pre-season… but 8?  Wow.  Still, with the much tougher back end of the schedule, Wake Forest is not going to struggle to put up more than 3 more wins down the stretch.  Again, no knock on Wake, but they have peaked at 5-1.

Miami.  Like Louisville, Miami is 4-1.  Like Louisville, Miami has dominated its opponents–except for the one narrow loss to an elite team.  In Louisville’s case, Clemson; in Miami’s case, Florida State.  It is less clear, however, that Miami is going to run the table unscathed again.  Miami still has trips to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and North Carolina State.  Meanwhile, North Carolina, Pitt, and Duke will visit Miami.  10-2 is possible and 9-3 is certainly doable.  Either way, Miami seems to be on the right track.

What do you think?  Who would you put in for each category?

 

ACC Football Stockwatch: Buy, Sell, and Hold

After four weeks, coaches are already getting fired.  Teams are separating themselves.  If there was stock, who are you buying, selling, and holding?  Here are a few teams for each category.

BUY

Virginia Tech.  After a loss to Tennessee, the Hokies have dominated Boston College and East Carolina… two teams that rarely are dominated.  The smartest thing that a new coaching staff can do is retain that which is not broken.  In this case, the defense was not changed.  And now the offense and defense are both clicking.  With no Clemson, Florida State, or Louisville on the schedule, Virginia Tech could win the Coastal.

Boston College.  Huh?  Well, as 2-2, the Eagles have games against Buffalo, UConn, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and North Carolina state remaining.  Do you see four potential wins there?  Maybe.  If so, it will be a bowl.  That is an uptick over the present situation.

Wake Forest.  Like Boston College, Wake Forest does not have a horribly daunting remaining schedule.  Yeah, let’s give losses to Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville.  The Demon Deacons still have five more winnable games to get to bowl eligibility: @NC State, Syracuse, Army, Virginia, and Boston College.  Note that four of these games are at home too.  Wow.

SELL

Really, not much to sell here.  Virginia and Syracuse just had wins.  Florida State had some defensive woes, but is 3-1.  NC State and Georgia Tech have more wins than losses.  And so on.

But Notre Dame’s defensive woes are such that they fired their defensive coordinator.  So it might make some sense to sell Notre Dame until you see what a new coordinator can do.  At the same time, with three losses already, there is a path forward that has the Fighting Irish sitting home during bowl season.  They avoided Florida State, Clemson, and Louisville this year, but Miami and Virginia Tech look better than last year.  Meanwhile, Stanford is very good.  Lose those three games and there are six losses.  If so, Notre Dame has to hold serve against Syracuse, NC State, Army, Navy, and struggling U.S.C., just to get the six wins for bowl eligibility.  And if Syracuse upsets them this week?  Trouble.  Anything can happen, but it would make sense to “sell” for now.

Pittsburgh.  After a 2-0 start against in-state Penn State and Villanova, the Panthers dropped winnable games at Oklahoma State and North Carolina.  Marshall, Syracuse, and Virginia are “should wins.”  The Coastal is a mess, as usual. If Miami and Virginia Tech are for real, and Duke’s got the ship righted, Pitt may struggle to get to and beyond 6 wins.  Probably makes sense to “sell” and see where they are after the Georgia Tech game on October 8th.

HOLD

Clemson and Louisville.  Only one of these teams will come out of this week’s matchup 5-0 and in the drivers’ seat for the playoffs.  One of these teams will come out 4-1 and have obstacles.  Both teams still have to get by Florida State, who can play the spoiler and try to sneak back in.  All three still have games against SEC foes.  But you need to wait out this week to know who controls their own destiny.

Miami.  Four weeks in, Miami is 3-0.  The three easiest games on the schedule are gone, now it is Coastal competition, Florida State, Notre Dame, and North Carolina State.  Mark Richt should be familiar with Georgia Tech’s offense from his Georgia coaching days, and with two weeks to prepare, it would be inexcusable for the Hurricanes to not have a great game plan.  But if Georgia Tech can win this game, the schedule for Miami looks a lot tougher.

What do you think?  Who would you put in for each category?

 

ACC Football Stockwatch: Buy, Sell, and Hold

After one week, all those local newspaper “puff pieces” are reduced to the compost bin.  Everyone has games to talk about now.  And the ACC football teams have each played one game each.  So who are you buying, selling, and holding?  Here are a few teams for each category.

BUY

Louisville.  The Confidential took some slack for using a 7.5 win over/under.  And the Confidential still does not think that Louisville will beat FSU, Clemson, or Houston.  So all it takes is one upset to get Louisville down to 8 wins. And maybe that upset will come this week against Syracuse.  But, make no mistake, Louisville has a very good team.  70 points against any FBS foe is worth taking not of.  And Lamar Jackson looks like the real deal.

Miami.  Like Louisville, Miami beat its week 1 opponent handily. The win is not as impressive as the way that the team won.  The Hurricanes need to get their swagger back… for the sake of the ACC as a whole.  The Coastal has been far too unimpressive.  Perhaps Miami can change that.

Syracuse.  Unlike Louisville and Miami, Syracuse only managed to score 33 points.  And that was against an FCS foe.  But Dino Babers is bringing a new offensive system that may help Syracuse improve on “holding serve” against peer opponents, and perhaps even sneak up on someone for an upset.  The theme was that this was a long-term investment, but maybe there will be some short-term dividends in the Carrier Dome in 2016.

SELL

Virginia.  Sorry Wahoos.  Brono might build something at UVa, but losing to Richmond convincingly was a horrible way to start and makes it likely that it is already “on to 2017.”   If Virginia was a stock, you would want to put it in the safe deposit box for a few years.  You definitely do not want to be checking the quotes on a daily basis.

Notre Dame.  Amazingly, the Fighting Irish are not out of the playoff picture.  But, unless Texas has a great season, Notre Dame will likely find itself on the outside looking in–even at 11-1.  So that makes it a tough way to start the season.  And now Notre Dame has no margin for error.

HOLD

Clemson and Florida State.  Both teams defeated SEC foes, albeit not in a way to inspire a substantial amount of confidence.  Florida State needed to rally, while Clemson was a Hail Mary away from losing.  Still, both played solid opponents and deserve credit for pulling out wins.  These teams will get better.  These two teams are stocks that were battered last week, giving the potential for a short-term quick profit when they round into form.  Both are in the hunt for a playoff spot until you hear otherwise.

Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech.  These two schools are in contention for a Coastal… look, everyone but Virginia can win the Coastal.  But Pitt had a great season last year and Virginia Tech has some new juice with its new coach.  That makes them sneaky picks to edge the field.  Both looked good, but not great, in their openers.  Both play tough OOC games this week.  If they can pull off wins this week, you have to slide both up into Coastal contenders.  If they lose, they will still be contenders, but you will have that much more doubt.  So, see how this week goes.

What do you think?  Who would you put in for each category?

 

Post Navigation

%d bloggers like this: