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13 Oct 2016

ACC Football Stockwatch: Buy, Sell, and Hold

After six weeks, the ACC is down to one undefeated team (Clemson).  A bunch of teams are battling to be in the top half of the conference.  If these teams were stock, who are you buying, selling, and holding?  Here are a few teams for each category.

BUY

Notre Dame.  What?  At 1-3, things were worrisome.  Splitting NC State and Syracuse means 2-4.  But will Notre Dame finish 4-8?  Probably not.  With 5 home games left, there is plenty of time to right the ship.  A wounded and vulnerable Stanford team comes to town next, with Army and Navy looming.  A bowl might be tough, however, as the remaining schedule is Miami (H), Virginia Tech (H), and disappointing Southern Cal (A).  Still, things should get better, right?  A buy low opportunity.

Louisville.  At 4-1, Louisville has scored 290 points.  Can they get better?  Well, maybe not better… but they have gotten past the Florida State/Clemson part of the schedule.  The only highly ranked team left on the schedule is Houston, who just lost to Navy.  The remaining six teams certainly could pull an upset, as is the nature of the game.  But they would be major upsets: Duke, NC State, Boston College, Virginia, Wake Forest, Kentucky.  The college football scoring record is 723 points (Florida State in 14 games).  Louisville is on pace to score 754 if they play 13 games (which seems quite likely).

SELL

Syracuse.  Look, Dino Babers may have Syracuse on the right track.  But, like the rebuilds at other schools, the dividends will not be paying off this year.  Absent an upset, the only real winnable game left on the schedule is Boston College–a road game where B.C. will have 15 days to prepare.  2-10 or 3-9 is far from out of the question.

Boston College.  At 3-3, B.C. would need a 3-3 finish to go bowling. They host Syracuse and UConn, which is nice.  But where does that sixth win come from?  A trip to NC State–possible.  Louisville?  Um, no.  A trip to Florida State?  Unlikely.  A trip to Wake Forest?  See above regarding the Demon Deacons.  And if Syracuse is going to win ANY game this year, it is the B.C. game.  Meanwhile, UConn will be VERY interested and motivated to beat B.C.  A bowl is looking unlikely, even with one of the softest OOC schedules possible.

HOLD

Wake Forest.  At 5-1, Wake Forest is in the drivers seat for a bowl game, and possibly a very good bowl game.  The Demon Deacons still have games with Virginia, Army, and Boston College.  Even assuming losses to Florida State, Louisville, and Clemson, 8-4 is on the table.  Getting to six wins would have been impressive pre-season… but 8?  Wow.  Still, with the much tougher back end of the schedule, Wake Forest is not going to struggle to put up more than 3 more wins down the stretch.  Again, no knock on Wake, but they have peaked at 5-1.

Miami.  Like Louisville, Miami is 4-1.  Like Louisville, Miami has dominated its opponents–except for the one narrow loss to an elite team.  In Louisville’s case, Clemson; in Miami’s case, Florida State.  It is less clear, however, that Miami is going to run the table unscathed again.  Miami still has trips to Notre Dame, Virginia Tech, Virginia, and North Carolina State.  Meanwhile, North Carolina, Pitt, and Duke will visit Miami.  10-2 is possible and 9-3 is certainly doable.  Either way, Miami seems to be on the right track.

What do you think?  Who would you put in for each category?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Stockwatch and tagged , , ,
11 Oct 2016
1 Comment

ACC Football Rankings: Week 7

Each week, the Confidential will rank the top 15 teams (includes Notre Dame) in the A.C.C. and provide a brief explanation for the decision.  Feel free to list your own below or otherwise comment.  Here it goes for week 7:

  1. Clemson 6-0.  Boston College used to have a great defense.  After allowing over 100 points in its last two conference games, maybe not.  Either way, Clemson rolled over B.C. on the road to get to 6-0.  They are now halfway to the Conference Championship game.  They need to take care of NC State and not look forward to Florida State though.
  2. Louisville 4-1. The Cardinals got a week off to rest and prepare for Duke.
  3. Virginia Tech 4-1. With a 34-3 drubbing of the Tar Heels in the inclement weather, the Hokies may officially be “back.”  North Carolina was flying high entering the game, but left with its Coastal tag between its legs.  Virginia Tech travels to Syracuse to face the fading Orange.
  4. Florida State 4-2.  Sure, it was not beautiful, but it was the 7th straight win for the Seminoles over Miami.  The trajectory of these two rivals is getting closer, but Jimbo Fisher got the win to keep FSU in the running for a major bowl.  Wake Forest is next and will not be easy.
  5. Miami 4-1.  Miami has narrowed the gap considerably–but still fell short against FSU 20-19.  So close.  But there is no time to rest as a hungry North Carolina team will be coming to town next.  To stay in the Coastal hunt, Miami needs to take care of business.
  6. NC State 4-1.  NC State has a win over Wake Forest, who at 5-1 is taking major steps forward.  NC State also has a win over Notre Dame, who has talent all over the field and handled Syracuse easily.   Oh, but things get very challenging with a trip to Clemson this week.
  7. Wake Forest 5-1.  Wake Forest just keeps winning.  After losing to NC State, they made several major mistakes and still put Syracuse away.  At the halfway point, the Demon Deacons need just one more win to go bowling… and Army, Virginia, and Boston College are all on the schedule.  Next up, a trip to Florida State, who may have just found some confidence with a win over Miami.
  8. North Carolina 4-2. The Tar Heels could be higher, with losses only to Georgia and Va Tech.  This shows just how deep the ACC is now.  Unfortunately, UNC must now travel to Miami, who will be looking to rebound from its disappointing loss to rival FSU.
  9. Pittsburgh 4-2.  The Panthers were able to beat Georgia Tech by a field goal, moving to 4-2.  A trip to Virginia is next.  While Syracuse and Duke will come to town to end the season, the next three weeks involve games against Miami, Clemson, and Virginia Tech.  A Virginia win is essential.
  10. Georgia Tech 3-3.  After starting 3-0, the Yellow Jackets are now 3-3, with losses to Clemson, Miami, and Pitt.  They need to defeat Georgia Southern, who (fortunately for Ga Tech) is not quite the same under its new coach.  A good opportunity to right the ship.
  11. Duke 3-3.  A win is a win, and Duke beat Army 13-6 to get to .500.  All six remaining games are against teams above Duke in these standings, so there is a real risk of Duke missing out on a bowl this year.  Next up: Louisville, who will be looking to take out two weeks of post-Clemson frustration on the Blue Devils.  Yikes!
  12. Boston College 3-3.  Boston College used to be about defense, but they have been outscored 122-24 in conference play this year.  They have 15 days to prepare for Syracuse.
  13. Notre Dame 2-4.  The loss to NC State shows just how far the Fighting Irish have fallen.  Someone joked that it is a good thing that Notre Dame is not in the ACC because it would drag down the conference S.O.S.  And that joke was true.  To get to bowl eligibility, Notre Dame will have to win four of these games: Stanford, Miami, Army, Navy, Virginia Tech, and @ USC.  Yes, that is five straight home games in a schedule with only three true road games.  And no Clemson, FSU, or Louisville on the schedule.  Stanford and USC are both down, while Texas and Michigan State are fading.  To miss a bowl in a season with THIS schedule would be dreadful.
  14. Virginia 2-3.  Virginia got the week off and gets to move up to #14.  After all, they have a better record and a win over a P5 program (which Syracuse does not).  Next up is 4-2 Pitt.
  15. Syracuse 2-4.  The Orange are fading fast.  With six games left, bowl eligibility is mathematically alive.  But the loss to Wake Forest may have put that reality out of its misery.  With hot Va Tech coming to town, it could get that much more unlikely that much faster.  Perhaps worse Syracuse teams have pulled upsets, but it is what it is.  With wins over Colgate and UConn, Syracuse deserves the #15 spot until the results prove otherwise.

So, what do you think?  How would you change these rankings?

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Rankings and tagged , , ,
10 Oct 2016

Confidential Survivor Pool Update: Week 7

After five weeks, we are down to only 16 entrants without a single strike.  This week, North Carolina, Notre Dame, and Syracuse (?) tripped up some teams.  There are now only 25 overall entrants left.

As we move on to Week 7, here is the chart of who is left:

No Entry Name Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6
1 ACAFFREY (COMMANDER CAFFREY) SYR MIA UNC BC PITT DUKE
2 BCEAGLE74 WF GT NCST BC PITT CLEM
3 BENSTANDREW SYR ND MIA LOU BC VTC
4 CDWHIT09 DUKE BC NCST VTC PITT CLEM
5 HHUNTLEY17 DUKE GT UNC BC ND CLEM
6 HOOPULLEDMYWEAVE SYR GT WF BC ND DUKE
7 INTOTHEMEATGRINDER VTC MIA WF BC PITT DUKE
8 JFLIPPEN SYR GT NCST VTC BC DUKE
9 MADCADDIES6 WF GT NCST BC PITT CLEM
10 MIKEMAB2000 DUKE BC WF UNC MIA CLEM
11 MYKCITTY WF GT NCST BC PITT DUKE
12 PAGING_DR_HOO SYR GT WF BC PITT DUKE
13 RIGHT PROFILE SYR GT WF BC PITT DUKE
14 RIVES33 SYR GT WF VTC PITT DUKE
15 TWOHOOS SYR GT WF FSU BC PITT
16 UOFL223 WF GT NCST BC ND CLEM
17 4 TIME CHAMPS-FINGERS CROSSED NCST GT WF BC PITT UNC
18 CLEMSON82 WF GT NCST ND BC CLEM
19 DRANDYT WF DUKE NCST SYR BC PITT
20 HODOR WF BC NCST ND PITT CLEM
21 LD17 SYR BC WF VTC FSU PITT
22 LENVILLECARDS SYR BC WF ND PITT CLEM
23 MSU_DAWGS02 DUKE LOU WF BC PITT SYR
24 SUATO92 SYR GT BC LOU PITT CLEM
25 TANNYBOGUS – 3 NCST UNC CLEM BC DUKE PITT

Good luck in Week 7 everyone!

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Fantasy Football, Results and tagged , , ,
20 Oct 2015
1 Comment

ACC Fantasy Football: Week 7 Recap

Thanks to all those who continue to participate in our weekly fantasy football league!  It is a free game.  There is a prize on a season-long basis.  The rules are here.   Feel free to enter the season-long game.  These are the results from Week 7–individual team results are located here in the comments section.  Unfortunately, the Commander won the weekly prize.  So it is rendered moot, as he will allow it to escheat back to the Confidential.  We will do another weekly contest later.  In any event, here is the week 7 recap:

As always, this is done by hand so the potential for error is there.  It is final in 48 hours.

RESULTS

With 9 entries, 4 teams get wins (bold), 4 teams get losses, and 1 team gets a tie (italic):

Commander = 115.7 pts  (two in a row for the Commander)

LD = 114.9 pts

ACwolfpacker = 114.0 pts

Josh V = 114.0 pts

Lenville = 108.3 pts

MSU = 105.2 pts

Brian = 103.7 pts

HHuntley = 81.8 pts

Chrislords = 87.2 pts

 

STANDINGS AFTER WEEK 7 :

  1. Accwolfpacker  6-0-1 (13 pts–in a hypothetical 2 pts per win, 1 pt per tie format))
  2. Commander 5-2 (1o pts)
  3. LenvilleCards 4-2-1 (9 pts)
  4. LD   4-3 (8 pts)
  5. Brian 3-3-1 (7 pts)
  6. MSU Bulldog   3-4 (6 pts)
  7. HHuntley17   2-4-1 (5 pts)
  8. Josh V   1-4-2 (4 pts)
  9. Chrislords  1-6 (2 pts)

Kind of interesting that there are no ties in the standings.  Can anyone catch ACCwolfpacker?  It will take solid efforts from everyone to bring him back to the pack… no pun intended.

GREAT JOB BY EVERYONE!   On to Week 8….

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Fantasy Football, Results and tagged , , , ,
20 Oct 2015

Confidential Survivor League Update Week 7

The Confidential runs two fantasy football leagues each year… an individual player league (see here) and a double-elimination survivor league.  Two more teams were eliminated, leaving 28.  Of the 28 teams remaining, 14 now have one loss.  Nobody lost last week:

No User Name Wk4 Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6
1 4 TIME CHAMPS-FINGERS CROSSED GT DUKE NCST LOU FSU ND VIRG
2 ACAFFREY (COMMANDER CAFFREY) NCST BC VIRG LOU FSU DUKE UNC
3 BCEAGLE74 WF BC NCST ND FSU DUKE UNC
4 CDWHIT09 WF MIA NCST LOU FSU ND UNC
5 HHUNTLEY17 BC VTC VIRG UNC FSU DUKE CLEM
6 HOOPULLEDMYWEAVE MIA VTC VIRG UNC FSU ND CLEM
7 INTOTHEMEATGRINDER WF BC VIRG LOU FSU DUKE CLEM
8 JFLIPPEN BC NCST VIRG LOU FSU DUKE UNC
9 LD17 SYR BC VIRG LOU FSU DUKE UNC
10 MADCADDIES6 GT BC VIRG ND FSU PITT UNC
11 MSU_DAWGS02 WF PITT VIRG UNC FSU DUKE CLEM
12 RIGHT PROFILE WF BC UNC LOU FSU DUKE VIRG
13 SUATO92 SYR BC WF ND FSU DUKE UNC
14 UOFL223 GT SYR NCST LOU FSU DUKE UNC
15 ANDR00MAJ WF BC VIRG NCST DUKE SYR UNC
16 ANJAC FSU PITT CLEM ND DUKE BC UNC
17 CLEMSON82 SYR DUKE VIRG NCST FSU BC UNC
18 DREW_WMS SYR BC WF LOU FSU NCST UNC
19 DSHRIMPTONIV WF PITT VIRG NCST ND DUKE UNC
20 INFIELDIN WF SYR VIRG LOU FSU BC UNC
21 LENVILLECARDS WF DUKE VIRG UNC VTC ND CLEM
22 MCAFFREY ND BC NCST LOU FSU SYR MIA
23 MR. TAR HEEL WF BC SYR LOU VTC PITT VIRG
24 RIVES33 BC DUKE VIRG LOU VTC ND UNC
25 SNATCH ADAMS PITT NCST SYR VTC FSU ND CLEM
26 TANNYBOGUS CLEM GT MIA LOU FSU VIRG UNC
27 TWOHOOS WF BC VIRG LOU GT DUKE UNC
28 WAHOO 88 SYR BC VIRG UNC GT DUKE CLEM
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , ,
11 Oct 2015
22 Comments

Confidential Fantasy Football Game: Week 7 Entry Page

Even if you missed out on Weeks 1 through 6, the Confidential’s Fantasy Football Game is still joinable in Week 7.  Chances are, you cannot catch the leaders.  But you can certainly be a spoiler.  As those who entered know, the game is free and simple… just pick your team.  See rules.  Here is the recap of Week 6 and the standings.  Looks like everyone finally made some ground on ACCWolfpacker!

To enter, just comment with your entry for Week 7.

Week 7 Prize: The entry with the highest score wins $10.00 via PayPal! 

RETURNING ENTRANTS, PLEASE KINDLY POST BOTH LAST WEEK’S ROSTER AND YOUR ROSTER FOR THIS WEEK!  IT WILL BE GREATLY HELPFUL!

ENTRY DEADLINE 11:59 A.M. on SATURDAY OCT. 17, 2015!

Good luck to all!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC Fantasy Football, Preview and tagged , , , ,
12 Oct 2014

Confidential Survivor Pool Update: Week 7

After seven weeks, only 22 entrants remain in the running for the prize.  Georgia Tech tripped up one entrant this past week.

Here are the folks still in the running, as well as the picks that they have used to date:

No User Name Wk4 Wk1 Wk2 Wk3 Wk4 Wk5 Wk6
1 4 TIME CHAMPS-FINGERS CROSSED GT MIA PITT NCST VTC FSU ND
2 ACAFFREY (COMMANDER CAFFREY) GT VIRG MIA NCST VTC FSU ND
3 BCEAGLE74 BC NCST ND LOU VTC FSU MIA
4 BLUEHOOS NCST WF ND BC VIRG FSU MIA
5 CDWHIT09 BC DUKE PITT NCST VTC FSU ND
6 CLEMSON82 GT DUKE ND LOU VTC FSU MIA
7 DRANDYT DUKE MIA GT LOU VIRG CLEM FSU
8 DREW_WMS GT CLEM PITT NCST VIRG LOU ND
9 DSHRIMPTONIV DUKE GT PITT NCST VIRG FSU MIA
10 INFIELDIN UNC MIA DUKE NCST VTC CLEM ND
11 INTOTHEMEATGRINDER SYR DUKE PITT NCST VIRG FSU ND
12 JFLIPPEN NCST LOU MIA DUKE VIRG FSU ND
13 MADCADDIES6 BC NCST ND LOU VIRG FSU CLEM
14 MIKEMAB2000 ND FSU PITT NCST LOU GT CLEM
15 MR. TAR HEEL NCST WF GT BC VIRG LOU MIA
16 MSU_DAWGS02 SYR WF ND BC VIRG FSU MIA
17 RIVES33 NCST VIRG GT BC VTC CLEM MIA
18 SCHMHOO BC WF PITT NCST VIRG LOU ND
19 TJKAISER22 BC WF PITT DUKE LOU CLEM MIA
20 TWOHOOS SYR WF ND NCST VIRG LOU MIA
21 UOFL223 VTC MIA DUKE LOU VIRG FSU ND
22 WAHOO 88 SYR WF GT BC VIRG CLEM ND
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , ,
10 Oct 2014
2 Comments

Week 7 ACC Preview & Game Thread

Welcome to Week #7.  Check out our latest poll, and remember to get your week’s entry in for our fantasy football contest.  It is free… with prizes.   And you can join anytime.  Here are this week’s games:

Saturday

#1 Florida State (5-0) @ Syracuse (2-3).  If all was going well for Syracuse, we would think Florida State would win comfortably.  But all is NOT well for Syracuse, which is suffering from such poor offensive performance that it is making midseason coaching changes of questionable appropriateness (to some).  Meanwhile, Syracuse will be playing without its QB (Hunt), as well as its two biggest offensive threats (Broyld/Estime).  So…   this one will likely get ugly.  You probably do not want to let young children watch.

Cincinnati (2-2) @ Miami (3-3), 12:00 pm.  As much as the Confidential likes Al Golden, it is questionable whether he is losing the fan base.  Miami has had enough “average” seasons recently.  It has been mostly mediocriami of late.  They are looking for something more.  At the same time, Golden seems to be beating the beatable teams–which is a start.  If Cincinnati does not have Kiel at the QB position, the Hurricanes should get to 4-3.

Duke (4-1) @ #22 Georgia Tech (5-0), 12:30 pm.  The narrative is that the ACC Atlantic is way ahead of the ACC Coastal.  But Duke/Georgia Tech have the same number of losses as FSU/Louisville.  If Georgia Tech can somehow run the table, it would be HUGE for the ACC.  So far, the Yellow Jackets have beaten Virginia Tech and Miami, two huge foes.  Duke is the next biggest foe.  This is a game that the old Georgia Tech loses.  Meanwhile, Duke is just as likely to win the Coastal–making this a game that may decide who gets to play (likely) Florida State in Game #13.  HUGE game!

Boston College (3-2) @ North Carolina State (4-2), 3:30 pm.  It is hard to figure out BC, who has beaten USC and lost to Colorado State.  North Carolina State is easy to figure out–having beaten 4 weak teams and having lost to Florida State (narrowly) and Clemson (not so narrowly).  If NC State wins, it will say something about how the first 6 games prepared them for the more doable last six.  If NC State loses, one begins to question whether the team peaked during the Florida State game.  Either way, one of these teams will move closer to a realistic bowl game.

North Carolina (2-3) @ #6 Notre Dame (5-0) 3:30 pm.  This game is big for ACC fans.  If Notre Dame can get by UNC, this will have them travel to Florida State at 6-0–which is good for both teams.  If UNC beats Notre Dame somehow, this will prevent FSU from having an important scheduling boost.  North Carolina is reeling, especially on defense, which should bode well for the Fighting Irish.  Notre Dame having a good season helps the ACC.  It just does.

ACC GAME OF THE WEEK: Louisville (5-1) @ Clemson (3-2), 3:30 pm. Regardless of the Coastal, these may be the two best teams in the ACC not named Florida State.  If it is so, it is because both teams have stout defenses–even if not able to stop Florida State (Louisville will get its chance).  These two teams may also be battling for second to Florida State in terms of fan passion, which is why this game was elevated to Game of the Week over the Coastal showdown between Duke and Georgia Tech.  The Confidential is looking forward to seeing whether Bobby Petrino’s defensive staff can stop the Clemson offense.  An equal challenge is whether they can move the ball against a defense that is likely better than Virginia’s.  This is a game to watch.

What do you think?   Let us know your thoughts during the games on Saturday too…

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , , ,
07 Oct 2014
4 Comments

The Confidential’s ACC Standings Poll: Week 7

As we enter Week 7, the standings are starting to become clear.  This was, by far, the most consistent the Confidential correspondents have been this season.  With 5/6 of the correspondents voting, here are the poll standings as of today and a very very brief synopsis:

Read more…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Football and tagged , , ,

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