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26 Jan 2013
7 Comments

Friends with Benefits–the ACC and the Big XII?

The Confidential did not make this phrase up.

We can prove it.  Big XII Commissioner Bob Bowlsby recently said this:

“If anything, it’s the opposite,” Bowlsby said. “You can begin to get some advantages without taking on any of the disadvantages (of expansion). It’s one option that allows benefits. It’s kind of like friends with benefits.”

What was Bowlsby talking about?  Apparently, the Big XII is considering an alliance with 3 other conferences that would take expansion/realignment off the table, but allow conferences to use each other to maximize revenue.  The ACC is one of the conferences that the Big XII approached.  This issue involves scheduling, marketing, and perhaps even television contracts.

Look, while some folks are never going to think the ACC is at risk, the defection of Maryland is happening.  Of course, schools have left the ACC before.  Schools even left the SEC once upon a time.  But the money that the Big Ten is generating is simply too much for some institutions to turn their backs on.  So anything that can arguably add revenue to the ACC coffers is important.  If an alliance with the Big XII is part of it, so be it.

From a realignment standpoint, the idea of Florida State and others defecting to the Big XII is debatable.  It seems unlikely that the Seminoles would trade down academically, just to add a few million dollars.  But as long as that is on the table, there is just one more reason for ACC fans to be nervous.  At the same time, the Big XII has to worry about the Pac-12, which has few options for new members geographically.  So an alliance between the three conferences makes some sense.  If the Big XII is only considering adding teams to save itself from a future Pac-12 expansion, the fear of realignment is doing more harm than actual realignment.  As noted above, Bowlsby thinks that an alliance will reduce the pressure for expansion.

Really, the best case scenario would be an 8-10 year agreement between the 5 major conferences to let things play out for a while without more realignment.  The SEC and B1G can make more money by destroying other conferences, but nobody knows the cost of abandoning so many rivalries in the process.  Of course, it is hard to tell the predator to ignore the prey.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Conference News, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , ,
26 Jan 2013
1 Comment

The Last Weekend of January: ACC Hoops

As we draw ever closer to March madness, the weekends become more and more important for ACC basketball fans.

Saturday, January 26, 2013:

How will Duke respond to its 27-point loss to Miami this week?  We’ll find out when they take on 15-4 Maryland today.  Expect Coach K’s team to rebound at home–but if they lose???   Wow–what a tough week.

With apologies to others, today’s North Carolina-North Carolina State game is the best of the day.  NC State is 15-4 and ranked #18.  North Carolina is 13-5 and unranked.  Really, North Carolina is closer to the bottom of the ACC than the top right now–if you count the future members.  You know NC State wants to do to the Tar Heels what Miami did to Duke.

Louisville’s loss to Syracuse was understandable.  Louisville’s loss to Villanova was far less so.  No rest for the weary as the #5 Cardinals head to Georgetown today.  A win–and the ship is back on course.  A loss?  And now you’ve got a 3-game losing streak.  Can Rick Pitino get his team focused?  We’ll see.

#3 Syracuse travels to Villanova.  If Villanova can pull another upset, that would be quite a week for the Wildcats.  Syracuse has been treading water, but needs to take care of business today.

#24 Notre Dame leaves the snow to head to Florida to take on South Florida.  The Bulls are better than most think, but at 10-8 aren’t doing themselves any favors.

At 16-4, Pitt has hardly been awful this year.  They get to host DePaul today to get that 17th win.

Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are both hovering at .500 overall.  Georgia Tech is on a 5-game losing streak and needs a win badly.

At 13-5, Virginia is having a nice, but unspectacular season.  They cannot afford to lose to 9-9 Boston College, obviously.

Sunday, January 27, 2013:

If only these were football games.

11-7 Virginia Tech travels to 10-8 Clemson for a 1:00 p.m. matchup.  These teams are not likely to be dancing in March, but they need wins to keep NIT hopes alive.

At 14-3 overall and 5-0 in conference play, Miami looks to build off its utter destruction of #1 Duke this week.  A win over disappointing Florida State would be a nice rivalry win, as well as a reason to move Miami up substantially in the polls.  The ACC wisely chose to feature this game as its 6:00 p.m. Sunday game.  The Battle for Florida is on.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
22 Jan 2013
3 Comments

New Contributor: Syracuse

Hi Everyone!
My name is Tom and I will be contributing to the website on a regular basis. I am a huge college sports fan even though the Northeast is dominated by professional sports. As a Syracuse fan I have followed conference realignment with great interest since the first Big East departures to the ACC a decade ago. I had always hoped Syracuse would eventually wind up in the ACC . In addition to following college football and basketball, I have great interest in lacrosse and the Olympic Sports of the ACC. I think there is more on the conference realignment front coming and hope the ACC comes out stronger. I look forward to responses to my contributions and interaction with the other ACC correspondents!
Thanks,
Tom

Posted by tjcuseacc in ACC only, Conference News, Uncategorized and tagged , ,
22 Jan 2013

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 22, 2013

This is particularly complex with Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  This is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball teams as of January 22, 2013:

1.     Syracuse (18-1) – The Orange eked out two impressive wins over #1 ranked Louisville and plucky Cincinnati, all without their 6th starter, James Southerland. Syracuse may have the #1 spot in the conference right now, but the margin of error is very slim. Next up: @ Villanova.

2.     Duke (16-1) – Duke recovered from their loss against NC State with a win over Georgia Tech, all while missing Kelly from the line-up. Next up @#25 Miami, vs. Maryland.

3.     Louisville (16-2) – Louisville was about 15 seconds away from taking down the Orange and staying atop the rankings, instead their time on top ended prematurely. Next up: @ Villanova, @ Georgetown, @ Pitt.

4.     Miami (13-3) – Miami’s record has been flawless for the first half of January, notching recent wins against Maryland and Boston College and garnering a top-25 ranking. Things are going to get a lot tougher for the ‘Canes when Duke brings their talents to South Beach. Next up: vs. Duke, vs. Florida State, @ Virginia Tech.

5.     North Carolina State (15-3) – The Wolfpack follow-up their monumental win against Duke by losing a heartbreaker to Maryland, but righted the ship by getting the job done against Clemson. Next up: @Wake Forest, @UNC.

6.     Pittsburgh (15-4) – The Panthers were able to move-on from the OT loss to Marquette and picked-up two nice wins against Villanova and UConn and should pick up two more this week. Up Next: @Providence, vs. DePaul, @ Louisville.

7.     Notre Dame (15-4) – The Irish bounced back from tough back-to-back losses against UConn and St. John’s by barely beating a surprising Rutgers team. And then a loss to Georgetown.  Up next: @ USF, vs. Villanova.

8.     Virginia (12-5) –Did you see what Virginia did to Florida State?  Allowing 36 points in a game is just unreal.  Up Next: @ Virginia Tech, vs. Boston College.

9.     Maryland (14-4) – The Terps have been very mercurial since league play started in January, particularly struggling offensively; perhaps just getting ready for their future in the Big Ten. Next up: vs. Boston College, @ Duke, @ FSU.

10.  North Carolina (12-5) – It’s too early to tell if Roy’s Boys are back on track, or if the past two wins over Florida State and Maryland are just an aberration. Up Next: vs. Georgia Tech, @NC State, @ Boston College.

11.  Florida State (10-7) – It’s a good thing that the Seminoles haven’t played many games lately, because they have just been down-right bad. One expects the football team to score 36 points, not the basketball team. Sheesh. Next up: vs. Clemson, @ Miami, vs. Maryland.

12.  Clemson (10-7) – The Tigers needed a win against North Carolina State to help keep the positive momentum going. Next up:@ Florida State, vs. Virginia Tech, and vs. Georgia Tech.

13.  Boston College (9-8) –  Boston College looks to stem the losing streak and avoid slipping to the bottom of the ACC. Next up: @Maryland, @ Virginia, vs. UNC.

14.  Virginia Tech (11-6) – VPI beat Georgia Tech and Wake Forest, but lost to Boston College. Next up: vs. Virginia, @ Clemson, vs. Miami.

Right/wrong?  Disagree?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
21 Jan 2013
2 Comments

Conference Realignment–Always Murky

On Friday, the Confidential discussed the different ways to decipher the words trickling out of Big XII headquarters regarding expansion.  Unfortunately, we get to play the game again.  ESPN interviewed the new athletic director from Georgia Tech, Mike Bobinski.  His comments regarding realignment were encouraging or discouraging, depending on how you read them.

First, let’s start with the money quote:

Bobinski smiled when asked if Georgia Tech might be joining the realignment frenzy.

“That’s the ultimate loaded question,” he said, before quickly stressing he thinks the ACC is an “unbelievable home for Georgia Tech. It’s the right fit in today’s world for us.”

The Yellow Jackets’ goals — both athletically and academically — are aligned with conference rivals such as North Carolina, Duke and Virginia, he added.

“That’s the company Georgia Tech belongs in,” Bobinski said. “It’s the right alignment in a lot of ways. I don’t have any inclination at this point in time that there’s any different home in our future. Our goal right now — us and the rest of the members of the ACC — is be as good as we can be in football and strengthen the revenue base in and around the conference, so there’s no temptation for folks to start to be picked off. We’re all-in for the ACC.”

ESPN chooses to see these comments as a positive, treating the comments as a “commitment to the ACC.”  One can kind of see the point there.

But not the folks over at Frank the Tank’s expansion-heavy blog.  The commentariat over there reads heavily between the lines–in a way that is not at all encouraging for ACC fans.  Indeed, why not just say–“NO, as my predecessor noted, Georgia Tech is not going anywhere!”  Also, the latest fetish among the commentariat is an 18-team Big 10 with 4 more ACC teams added to the mix.  So, the comment regarding UNC, Duke, and UVa is perceived as stating Georgia Tech’s preference for brethren if it joins the Big 10.  The Confidential further notes that Mr. Bobiniski has a lot of conditional language in his statements too.  So, as usual, the Frank the Tank folks have a good point too.

But before ordering the ACC tombstone, there is one final positive thought.  At least Mr. Bobinski concluded with a statement that Georgia Tech is “all-in for the ACC.”  If all the schools really could go “all-in” for the ACC, the future would be bright…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
20 Jan 2013
1 Comment

The Confidential’s NCAA Basketball Top 10

The Confidential is going to switch to a new format for its national rankings of the best basketball teams.  Instead of a top 25, it will just be a top 10.  Here it goes:

10. Minnesota – So far this season, Minnesota’s three losses have all come at the hands of the team that was ranked #5 in the country that week.
9. Gonzaga – Gonzaga was an in-bounds pass away from defeating Butler and advancing further in the top-10 after a hard-fought, back-and-forth game that looked every bit like a March Madness game.
8. Indiana – There is no excuse to losing to Wisconsin at home; now Indiana has to take care of business at Northwestern.
7. Ohio State – OSU followed a big time win over Michigan with a tough loss against the always difficult Michigan State. You have to give the Buckeyes credit for having one of the most difficult schedules in the country, hopefully that will pay off dividends in April.
6. Arizona – With only 1-loss on their resume, it’s hard to not put Arizona into the top 5 and it’s not their fault that the Pac-12 is not as good of league as the Big East, ACC, or even the BigTen. But, they haven’t really had a big win since early December.
5. Michigan – It seems illogical to rank Michigan ahead of Ohio State, the only team that have beaten them all season, but unlike the Buckeyes, the Wolverines won their match-up this week against a tough opponent in Minnesota.
4. Louisville – Big win against UConn, tough loss at home against Syracuse. Louisville has the talent to be cutting down the nets in April.
3. Duke – Duke recovered from their loss against NCState and did what they had to do: soundly beat Georgia Tech. With Ryan Kelly back in the lineup, this team could be unstoppable.
2. Syracuse – Their huge comeback win against #1 Louisville on Saturday is certainly worthy of retaking the top position, unfortunately the edge just goes to…
1. Kansas – Kansas’ win over Texas wasn’t impressive, but they keep finding ways to win. We’ll know a lot more about this team after their next test against their in-state rival in Manhattan.

A lot more “future ACC” than current ACC… what is the deal?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , ,
19 Jan 2013

Big Weekend for ACC Hoops Today

This weekend promises to be an exciting one for ACC basketball fans.

Saturday, January 19, 2013:

The big game will be #1 Louisville v #6 Syracuse.  Syracuse will be playing without its top offensive threat, James Southerland.  Louisville is on quite a roll.  Can Louisville hang on to #1?

North Carolina has not been North Carolina this year.  Maryland is 14-3.  Can Maryland go into the Dean Dome and topple the Tar Heels?

Florida State and Virginia were two of the most surprising teams in basketball last year.  Both have somewhat disappointing records so far.  They play today–some has to win and get momentum.

In other games, Wake Forest and Virginia Tech square off.  14-4 Pitt hosts UConn.  And #20 Notre Dame hosts Rutgers.

Sunday, January 20, 2013:

Sunday’s lone game features North Carolina State, now ranked #14, hosting Clemson.  These are the games that the Wolfpack need to win going away to show that they are worthy of a top 4 seed in March.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
18 Jan 2013
1 Comment

New Atlantic Coast Confidential Member Added

Good afternoon ladies & gents!

My name is Jeff and I’ll be contributing to the Atlantic Coast Confidential website on a weekly basis moving forward.  I wanted to give you a brief introduction before I get started.  First of all I’m a huge sports fanatic & a big stat guy.  I prefer college over professional sports, but I like it all, especially the ACC.  I’m a South Carolinian and partial to the Clemson Tigers, however I find a way to pull for one team in nearly every match-up.  Some of my earliest childhood memories involve attending Clemson football games with my family, particularly my grandfather and cousin.  After years of dedication, I now bleed Clemson orange.  In my spare time I like to hit the gym, play golf, do anything involving good friends or the outdoors, all while giving you a new sports article to read each week.  I look forward to reading your comments and receiving your feedback in the near future.

Thanks,
Jeff

Posted by JBCoop in Uncategorized and tagged , , ,
17 Jan 2013
5 Comments

Don’t Think Expansion is Over Just Yet…

Look… this is just never going to end.  With the Big East dying a slow death, and with Maryland’s departure, it is clear that the ACC is everyone’s target for future expansion.  And now the Big XII commissioner, Bob Bowlsby, is going on record that it may not be d0ne expanding.  So, if you are an ACC fan, this is not the time to get over-confident.

To be sure, it may be that the Big XII will decide not to expand.  They have plenty of money per school and the good fortune of a true round-robin in conference play.  The only real drawback to 10 members is the absence of a conference title game.  And Bowlsby does have a problem with the NCAA stating that 12, rather than 10, is the magic number for a lucrative championship game.  And, frankly, he has a point.  Who really cares–if the Big XII wants to have a conference championship game, the NCAA might as well let them.  A pretty victim-less “crime.”

Returning to expansion, the usual names will always pop up–Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, Miami, etc.  It is hard to see other schools adding to the per-school payouts that the Big XII will be generating.  And it is even harder to see a Duke, North Carolina, or Virginia being amenable to the academic inferiority that the Big XII would bring.  Still, the ACC has to be a little nervous.

More positive from an ACC standpoint is this blurb from Bowlsby:

“That’s exactly one of the questions we’ll be asking ourselves,” Bowlsby said Wednesday. “Look at Maryland and Rutgers. They don’t bring programs that are of the ilk of the others in the Big Ten. The philosophy clearly is: ‘As members of the Big Ten we can grow them.’ “

Maybe the Big XII is wondering whether it can grow a program or two of its own.  If so, enter Cincinnati, BYU, and perhaps even UConn.  These have to be the best three overall schools that are not affiliated with the top 5 conferences.  And perhaps nobody should be sleeping on South Florida.  The Big XII could add some viewership with the Cincinnati and Tampa markets.  At the very least, it is possible for the Big XII to expand without trying to lure an ACC school.

In the meantime, all anyone can do is sit back and watch.  Unless, of course, the ACC wants to start discussing a Grant of Rights… but that is another topic for another day.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
16 Jan 2013
4 Comments

ACC Beats SEC in One Metric: Revenue?

UPDATE:  Here is a link to the actual Forbes article, which provides more detail.  The Big XII comes in 5th at $262,000,000. Wondering about the Big East?  Try $94,000,000.

According to Forbes, the ACC has more revenue than the SEC.  The article ACC beat out the SEC in terms of revenue by several percent, allowing the ACC to snag the #3 spot in the conference rankings.  The Big 10 was #1, with the Pac 12 finishing second.

That being said, file this article under “FWIW,” with the “worth” being “not so much.”  After all, the Big XII seemed to be omitted.

It is also difficult to understand how the Big 10’s revenue of $310,000,000, could be only slightly more than the ACC’s revenue of $293,000,000.  While the article mentions “estimates,” it is unclear what possible estimate could lead to this calculation.  The Pac-12 was listed as having $303,000,000 in revenue, while the SEC trailed all conferences at $270,000,000.  Of course, the SEC is due to renegotiate its television deal soon, which will result in an increase.

What do you think?  Are these numbers legit?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Opinion and tagged , ,

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