The Confidential

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Hide Dick Vitale’s Shoelaces–Duke Eliminated By Lehigh

The Big Dance came very close to a historic upset on Thursday with Syracuse’s decision to play terribly for 35 minutes against North Carolina Asheville, but Friday produced one of the bigger upsets in NCAA Tournament History as #2 seed Duke lost to Lehigh, 75-70.  It was only the sixth time that a 15 seed has beaten a #2 (the fifth time was earlier Friday when Norfolk State defeated Missouri).  The end result, however, is that Duke is out of the tournament.

Non-Duke ACC fans will savor this–but Lehigh actually had more free throw attempts than Duke.  Significantly more–37-23.  But the real reason for the Lehigh win was the play of C.J. McCollum.  The country’s fifth leading scorer contributed 30 points, 6 rebounds, and 6 assists.  Duke had no answer for him.  Plus, Duke was 6 for 26 from three-point range.  In losing, Duke squandered 19 point games by Mason Plumlee and Austin Rivers.  The upset should not come as a total surprise as this year’s edition of Duke simply lacked the magic of prior seasons.  Losing at home to Florida State and Miami is just not typical.  And, in atypical fashion, Duke was eliminated from the Big Dance in the opening round for only the second time in 16 years.

So with Duke gone, someone keep Dukie V Dick Vitale on suicide watch.

The Media Needs to Lay Off Syracuse

Look, the Confidential has been critical of Syracuse and Jim Boeheim this season.  See here.  But, after Syracuse’s 72-65 win over North Carolina Asheville, the media uproar over calls down the stretch suggests that the media has trouble being intellectually honest when dealing with issues related to Syracuse.

There is no doubt that there were some calls down the stretch in that game that were “controversial.”  However, being “controversial” does not make them inaccurate.  CBS.com itemizes the so called “controversial” calls.  The two calls that have the interwebs panties-bunched are a lane violation call and an out-of bounds call.

As it relates to the lane violation, CBS states as follows:

First, there was a lane-violation call on J.P. Primm that negated a missed free throw by Scoop Jardine, leading to two points from at the charity stripe.

According to the rule, it was indeed a lane violation, although it could have gone uncalled without much notice.

Could have gone uncalled without much notice?  So could a holding call in football.  That does not make it fair or right.  In any event, it would appear that CBS’s position is that the referees should not have enforced a clear lane violation rule.  The logic is apparently that none of the guys paid by CBS to call the game understood the rule.  Or the logic is that few players are dumb enough to commit the violation.  CBS does not explain why two different players for North Carolina Ashville violating a rule should go unpunished.  CBS should just be embarrassed that nobody on its television team knew the rule.

ESPN knows the rule.  The referees know the rule.  Official Ed Corbett had this to say: “It was a clear (lane) violation. The player released early, before the ball hit the rim. We’ve since watched the replay 20 times and it was the right call.”  The criticism of the referees on this issue is simply wrong.  Suggesting that Syracuse as the beneficiary of a bad call is also wrong.  If North Carolina Asheville does not want to follow the rules, that is their choice.

To be sure, the out-of-bounds call was impossible to understand.  What was impossible to understand is why a foul was not called on North Carolina Asheville.  While the ball went out of bounds off of Syracuse’s Brandon Triche, he was knocked to the ground after being hit in the midsection by a defender.  Not contact–knocked to the ground like a wide receiver being tackled by a defensive back.  There is no gray area here.  If Triche had just launched a three-pointer, he would be shooting free throws.  So, while the call was incorrect, the result was absolutely correct to the extent that North Carolina Asheville did not get the ball.  What they were deprived of is Syracuse’s best free throw shooter getting two shots from the charity stripe.

In fact, the only thing that CBS did get right is that the referees missed a goaltending call.  That did deprive North Carolina Asheville of a bucket.  But CBS just ignored the referees’ mishandling of the end of the first-half.  With two seconds on the shot clock, Triche caught a rebound.  With one second left, Triche was fouled while going up for a shot–before the clock read zero, the referee had made the call.  Instant replay suggested that the ball had not left Triche’s hand before the basket was scored.  So it was certainly appropriate for the basket to have been negated.  But what happened to the foul?  Triche–again, Syracuse’s best free throw shooter–should have had free throws.  Plus, a North Carolina Asheville player avoided a foul call.  In the end, both teams caught a break and that is just how games can go.

For the media to try to weaken this Syracuse win is indefensible.  It is also inexplicable because Syracuse played awful.  There are plenty of talking points as to why it seems unlikely that Syracuse will even see next week.  A few calls did not cause North Carolina Asheville to lose.  North Carolina Asheville did.  That may not mean that Syracuse deserved to win, but it does not mean that Syracuse did not deserve its win.  As Syracuse legendary coach Jim Boeheim accurately noted–the scoreboard tells the story.  It’s time for the media to move on to a real story.

The ACC and the Post-Season: Update

Well, it is College Basketball Tournament season.  The Big Dance commences in earnest today.

Before reaching the real March Madness… did you know that Pittsburgh is still playing basketball?  The Panthers defeated Wofford on Tuesday in something called the CBI, 81-63.  And Miami defeated Valparaiso in the NIT on Wednesday, 66-50.  Congratulations for those teams taking advantage of their post-season opportunities.

As for the Big Dance, all the current ACC teams begin play on Friday.  So here is what ACC fans should be watching for Thursday:

Syracuse.  The Orange are going to be playing without the Big East defensive player of the year, Fab Melo.  Will the Melo-less Orange be the first #1 seed to ever lose to a #16 seed?  North Carolina-Asheville is not your ordinary 16 seed.  The Bulldogs stayed with North Carolina State (lost by 9), battled North Carolina (lost by 16), gave UConn a run (lost by 10), and narrowly lost to Tennessee (lost by 4).  They also beat Utah by 16.  This is not a team that will shrink from Syracuse.  However, even without Melo, Syracuse would have been a 3 or 4 seed this year.  In fact, without the expectation of improvement by Melo, Syracuse was a top 5 team in the preseason.  The goal here is to win and develop the ability to play without Melo.  If so, Syracuse still has the tools to make a decent run.

 

 

 

Adjust Your Brackets–Fab Melo is Out for Syracuse

The 2011-2012 Syracuse basketball team has been a rollercoaster.  The latest development is Syracuse’s announcement that Center Fab Melo will miss the NCAA tournament for what is reportedly an academic eligibility issue.  While some had questioned whether this Syracuse team would get to the Final Four with Melo–at least the way it had played lately–there is little doubt that a Melo-less Orange team is not a national championship contender.

Of course, the first question is why Melo is ineligible?  Do not expect clarity on that issue, as ESPN reported the following: “‘Given University policy and federal student privacy laws, no further details can be provided at this time,’ the Syracuse website said.”  So do not expect a statement from Syracuse on the issue.

Also, initial ESPN reports that the NCAA had determined Melo to be ineligible are also not true, as ESPN later clarified as follows: “Melo was declared ineligible by Syracuse, not the NCAA, according to Bob Williams, the NCAA vice president of communications.”

The media is also inconsistent as to whether this announcement was related to Melo’s three-game suspension from earlier in the year.  ESPN’s Dana O’Neill reported that a source indicated that Melo was declared ineligible “for academic issues related to those that forced him to sit three games earlier in the season.”  In contrast, CBS’s Seth Davis is apparently reporting that the suspension is in regard to an entirely different issue.  See Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician for more on this conflict.

Regardless of the “why,” the impact of Melo’s absence huge.  He was the Big East Defensive Player of the Year.  And his screens were a valuable part of the Syracuse offense.  Meanwhile, he was the only Syracuse player that was even competent rebounding.  So, while Syracuse could still make a deep run–it is difficult to envision this team surviving such a major loss this late in the season.  It will take a great effort by the remaining players just to make it to the Final Four.

 

ACC Basketball Rankings: March 13, 2012

Here is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball schools as of March 13, 2012:

1. Syracuse (31-2)  Notwithstanding the loss to Cincinnati, Syracuse has been the best ACC team from start to finish.

2. North Carolina (29-5)  Sure, the Tar Heels were swept by Florida State.  But Florida State had four more losses overall.

3. Duke (27-6)  Like North Carolina, Duke lost to Florida State twice.  Again, however, the upsets of Duke were far more reasonable.

4. Florida State (24-9Give the Seminoles credit for the head-to-head victories over the teams above them here.  But to win it all, you’ve got to win the winnable games too.

5. Virginia (22-9)  Virginia has been struggling for weeks now.  Good, but not great.

6North Carolina State (22-12).  The Wolfpack rallied in the ACC tournament to get off the bubble and into the Big Dance.  Likely at Miami’s expense.

7. Miami (19-12)  A good first season for the new Miami coaching staff.  The NIT will be good for this team, as long as they take it seriously.

8. Clemson (16-15)  At 8-8 in conference play during the regular season, Clemson fell to Virginia Tech in the ACC tourney.  Season was a stepping stone though.

9. Maryland (17-15)  At 6-10 in conference play, Maryland actually made progress.  Consider that this team was 3-3 heading into December.

10. Pittsburgh (17-16)  After starting 13-2, the team finished 4-14.  12 of those 16 losses were to teams in the Big Dance field.

11.  Virginia Tech (16-17)  A disappointing record obviously.  At some point, you’ve got to win a lot more of the close, winnable games.

12. Wake Forest (13-18) Like all the teams down this far, the Demon Deacons were a significant disappointment all season long.

13. Georgia Tech (11-20).  The new coaching staff did not have much success.  Next year should be better.

14. Boston College (9-22)  The Eagles were so young this year that the future is actually quite bright.  These were freshmen struggling, not juniors.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

The Brackets Are Unveiled and the ACC is Well-Represented

Selection Sunday has come and gone, and the NCAA has revealed the 68 teams that will compete for the National Championship.  And the ACC is well-represented in this year’s Big Dance.

North Carolina was–as expected–given a #1 seed in the Midwest.  In fact, the Tar Heels received the #3 overall seed.  They will play the winner of a play-in game between Lamar and Vermont.  The looming 8-9 matchup for North Carolina is Creighton-Alabama.

In a move that was also expected, Duke was given a #2 seed.  The Blue Devils were assigned to the South region, where Kentucky is the #1 seed.  Duke will begin play against Lehigh.  The looming 7-10 matchup for Duke is a tough one–#7 Notre Dame vs. #10 Xavier.

On the strength of their run through the ACC tournament, Florida State was given a #3 seed in the East.  The #1 seed is Syracuse, while the #2 seed in the East is Ohio State.  The Seminoles will begin play against St. Bonaventure.  If they win that game, they will face the winner of the game between #6 Cincinnati and #11 Texas.

Virginia fell all the way to a #10 seed and was shipped out West.  They will play the #7 seed Florida, who may be a bit underseeded.  Even if Virginia wins, a very tough #2 seed in Missouri awaits.  Michigan State was the #1 seed in the West.

North Carolina State was given an 11 seed.  They will begin play against the #6 seed in the Midwest region, San Diego State.  If the Wolfpack wins, they will play the winner of #3 Georgetown and #14 Belmont.

As noted above, Syracuse was the #1 seed in the East.  They will begin play against #16 seed North Carolina-Ashville.  If they take care of business there, the #8-#9 matchup features Kansas State and Southern Mississippi.

Obviously, this means that Miami did not make the cut.  While the general consensus is that Iona was the only questionable addition to the field, the greater focus is on the exclusion of Drexel.  Like all bubble teams, Miami had its chances and fell short.  The NIT certainly awaits though.

ACC Basketball Recap: Third Round ACC Tournament Action

The third round of the ACC Conference Championship has concluded.  The Championship games is now set, with North Carolina facing Florida State.

Of the two semifinal games, the only one with NCAA tournament implications was the North Carolina-North Carolina State matchup.  After losing to North Carolina, 69-67, the Wolfpack are going to have to sweat it out today when the field of 68 is announced.  This was a golden opportunity for a win because the Tar Heels were forced to play without John Henson, who has a sprained wrist.  But North Carolina still had Tyler Zeller, who contributed 23 points and 9 rebounds.  Meanwhile, Harrison Barnes added 16 points and Kendall Marshall had 10 assists.  The Wolfpack were led by CJ Leslie’s 22 points and 7 rebounds, all the more impressive since he fouled out with 8 minutes to go.  The Wolfpack bench lost track of the foul totals.  North Carolina improved to 29-4, while North Carolina State fell to 22-12.

In the other semifinal matchup, Florida State defeated Duke, 62-59.  Florida State led by as many as 10 points in the second-half, but Duke had two chances to tie the game in the final seconds.  Michael Snaer led the Seminoles with 16 points.  Austin Rivers led the Blue Devils with 19 points.  With the loss, Duke drops to 27-6.  With the win, Florida State improves to 23-9.

The results of these games mean that Florida State with play North Carolina for the ACC Championship.  In their prior meeting, Florida State embarrassed North Carolina 90-57.  Naturally, the Tar Heels will be looking for revenge.

 

 

 

 

Latest Mock Brackets–North Carolina State and Miami Still Nervous

With only one game left involving ACC teams, and few games left overall, the mock brackets are increasingly relevant.  For Miami and North Carolina State, there will be no exhaling until they see good news when the brackets are announced.  In the meantime, all anyone can do is look at what the experts are predicting.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has North Carolina State in the field, but Miami on the outside.  This is unchanged.  Overall, Lunardi considers the bubble to be 17 teams fighting for 9 spots.  And, really, it is not clear that Seton Hall’s profile is that much better than Miami’s.  The tournament committee may very well conclude that 9 Big East teams are plenty and allow Miami to take that spot.

Also at ESPN, Bubble Watch had this to say about the ACC, North Carolina State, and Miami:

After NC State’s close loss to rival North Carolina on Saturday, the remaining ACC bubble teams have officially bowed out of the conference postseason. So where do they stand? Miami is in trouble after Friday’s loss to Florida State, but not totally out of the picture, depending on how much weight the committee gives to that marquee win at Duke. NC State, meanwhile, has to feel more confident about its bid. If the committee saw Saturday’s loss (preceded by a win over Virginia), they saw a team play one of the nation’s best close for all 40 minutes — the last eight of which came without its best player, C.J. Leslie, who fouled out on a massive mistake by the NCSU coaching staff — and one that received the worst end of a universally bad officiating performance by the ACC referees. (When Pack fans complain that Duke and UNC get all the calls, Kendall Marshall’s apparent game-winning charge is what they mean.) In any case, the committee was no doubt in front of the TV, and even without the win, NC State’s effort seems likely to be rewarded.

North Carolina State [22-12 (9-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 30] Mark Gottfried’s team entered the day as one of Joe Lunardi’s last four teams in the tournament, which is a pretty good spot to be in when your worst-case scenario is a loss to putative No. 1 seed North Carolina. An uncompetitive blowout loss might have changed this status for the worse, but what NC State did — playing UNC close to the final buzzer, and getting the wrong end of a couple of key calls (the refs were bad for both teams, but there’s little question that NC State felt the lion’s share of the pain) — certainly can’t hurt their chances, can it? The Pack is far from a lock, of course (there’s that pesky 1-8 record against the top 50), but they’re in much better shape than when they arrived in Atlanta. That much is for sure.

Miami (FL) [19-12 (9-7), RPI: 58, SOS: 51] Can the Hurricanes still get in the tournament? To do so, they’ll need some help, some confluence of bubble losses around them that pave the way, because after Friday night’s loss to Florida State, Jim Larranaga’s team finds itself most likely outside the bubble (as per Joe Lunardi) — and without another game to boost its credentials with less than 48 hours until the bracket is revealed. After Friday’s loss, Miami is 2-8 against the RPI top 50, with a good win over Florida State and a great win at Duke but only one other victory — and three more losses (or 3-11 overall) — in the top 100. The near-60 RPI isn’t necessarily prohibitive, but it ain’t pretty. Taken as a whole with the rest of this profile, there’s just not as much here as you’d like. Miami’s fate is in the committee’s hands, and if we had to guess, we’d say the Canes aren’t going to like what they hear Sunday. But hey, it’s March. You never know.

Not exactly painting the ACC referees with a positive picture.  In any event, the commentary regarding the resumes of both teams is accurate enough for both teams to expect to sweat it out tomorrow.

One other very interesting thing was the report that the tournament committee has already selected the at-large teams.  All that is left is seeding.  It makes some sense given the absence of bubble teams still playing.  But it is surprising that someone would go so far as to say it.  If you are a bubble team, you are hoping that due consideration was given to your resume.

ACC Basketball Recap: Second Round ACC Tournament Action

The second round of the ACC Conference Championship has concluded.  Four teams advanced on March 9, 2012: North Carolina State, Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State.

As noted yesterday, North Carolina State is a team that many consider to be on the wrong side of the bubble.  So it was huge for the Wolfpack to come up with a victory over Virginia in the ACC Tournament, 67-64.  The big hero for North Carolina State was CJ Leslie, who scored 19 points and added 14 rebounds.  With the win, North Carolina State will move on to play North Carolina.  Mike Scott led Virginia with 23 points and 10 rebounds.

The news was not as good for Miami.  Florida State defeated the Hurricanes, 82-71.  The Seminoles were led by Michael Snaer’s 20 points.   Shane Larkin led Miami with 16 points.  Joe Lunardi has Miami as the second team in the “Last Four Out.”  For more analysis on Miami’s chances, see here.

In the other quarterfinal games, Duke defeated Virginia Tech, 60-56.  North Carolina defeated Maryland, 85-69.  In New York City, Syracuse suffered only its second loss of the season, losing to Cincinnati, 71-68.  The biggest news of these three games, however, was the wrist injury suffered by John Henson.  Right now, it is being called a sprain.

Saturday’s games:

  • #1 North Carolina v #5 North Carolina State 1:00 pm
  • #2 Duke v #3 Florida State, 3:00 pm

The Championship game will, of course, be Sunday afternoon.

ACC Basketball Recap: First Round ACC Tournament Action

The first round of the ACC Conference Championship has concluded.  Four teams advanced on March 8, 2012: Maryland, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, and Miami.

North Carolina State is a team that many consider to be on the wrong side of the bubble.  Joe Lunardi has North Carolina State as the 4th team “out” of the Big Dance.  A loss to Boston College would have destroyed the Wolfpack’s chances.  Instead, North Carolina State improved to 21-11 with a 78-57 win over the Eagles. Scott Wood led North Carolina State with 22 points.  While North Carolina State will need to win at least one more game to have a chance at cracking the field of 68, they took care of business in beating Boston College.  The Eagles, whose season ends with a 9-22 record, were led by Ryan Anderson’s 22 points and 12 rebounds.

Joe Lunardi also considers Miami on the wrong side of the bubble.  So it was important for Miami to avoid that bubble bursting when it played struggling Georgia Tech.  The Hurricanes did exactly that, beating the Yellow Jackets, 54-36.  In other words, less offense than a typical MAC football game.  Shane Larkin led the Hurricanes, who improved to 19-11, with 12 points.  Mfon Udofia led Georgia Tech, whose season ends with an 11-20 record, with 13 points.

In other games: Virginia Tech improved to 16-16 by defeating Clemson, 68-63.  Point guard Erick Green led Virginia Tech with 24 points, while Tanner Smith led Clemson with 12 points.  Maryland defeated Wake Forest 82-60 to improve to 17-14.  Terrell Stoglin scored 25 points to lead Maryland, while Wake Forest–whose season ended at 13-18–was led by Travis McKie’s 22 points.  Also, Syracuse improved to 31-1 by defeating Connecticut 58-55.  Dion Waiters led Syracuse with 18 points.

Friday’s games:

  • #1 North Carolina v #8 Maryland, noon
  • #4 Virginia v #5 North Carolina State 2:00 pm
  • #2 Duke v #10 Virginia Tech, 7:00 pm
  • #1 Syracuse v #4 Cincinnati, 7:00 pm
  • #3 Florida State v #6 Miami, 9:00 pm

For North Carolina State and Miami, the only option is winning.

 

 

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