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11 Dec 2011

Hoops Recap: Sunday Improvement for the ACC

Yesterday, the ACC struggled to a 3-3 record among current conference teams.  Sunday got much better as the league went 4-0.

Florida State improved to 7-3 with a 75-60 over North Carolina-Greensboro.  The Seminoles’ defense did the job, allowing only a 35% shooting percentage.  However, the offense struggled to the tune of 26 turnovers.  Overall, Florida State has a balanced attack, with none of the 9 players to get action to exceed 30 minutes.  Michael Snaer led the way with 14 points.

Virginia Tech also improved to 7-3 with its 73-60 win over Norfolk State.  The score was a bit misleading, as CBS noted:

The Spartans (6-4), who have quality victories over Drexel and Texas Christian and lost to Marquette by just two points, kept the game close throughout and cut the lead to 65-59 on Chris McEachin’s 3-pointer with 2:58 left in the game. But Virginia Tech’s Dorenzo Hudson hit a free throw with 2:05 left to make it 66-59. After McEachin missed a 3-pointer for Norfolk State with 1:40 to go, Eddie put the game away, draining his final 3-pointer with 1:07 remaining to push the Hokies’ lead back to 10.

But the Hokies were able to fend off this surprisingly tough foe, led by Jarell Eddie’s 24 points.

In its final tune-up before hosting Syracuse on Saturday, North Carolina State defeated North Carolina Central, 65-60.  The Wolfpack held a 10-point lead at halftime, but were never able to put away the Eagles.  C.J. Williams led the way for North Carolina State with 21 points.  Credit the team board work too; although no individual put up gaudy rebounding totals, North Carolina State held a 41-30 advantage in that category.

Finally, the ACC’s day was so good that even Boston College nabbed a rare win.  The Eagles were able to defeat Stony Brook soundly, 66-51.   Patrick Heckmann came off the bench to lead Boston College with 18 points.  With the win, Boston College improves to 3-7.  A win is a win is a win.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
09 Dec 2011
1 Comment

Another Hoops Loss for Boston College

The Boston College Eagles dropped to 2-7 with a 64-57 loss to the Providence Friars on Thursday evening.  About the only good news is that Boston College were not blown out by the hosts.  After all, Providence is 8-2.

It is no secret that the Eagles were going to have a rebuilding season.  CBS noted as follows regarding the turnover between last year’s Eagles win and this year’s Eagles loss to Providence:

Only two players who scored against the Friars last season played for BC in this year’s matchup. After losing 10 letter winners from last year, the Eagles’ top four scorers Thursday were all freshmen.

That is a lot of turnover.  All in all, it is not surprising that Providence avenged last year’s loss.

The issue here is just how bad the start of the  season has been for Boston College.  The Confidential certainly gets that losing 10 players means starting over.  However, with the exception of this loss, just look at the teams that have beaten Boston College on the early season:

  • Holy Cross (3-6) by 18
  • UMass (7-3) by 16
  • St. Louis (8-1)  by 11
  • New Mexico (6-2) by 8
  • Penn State (6-4) by 8
  • Boston University (4-5) by 14
  • Providence (8-2) by 7

While not an embarrassing slate, this is far from the competition that other major conference school teams are facing in tournaments.  And yet only 9 teams in the 6 major-conferences (70 total teams) are under .500.  At 2-7, only Utah has a worse record among the major conference teams.  This is the time of year for these teams to feast on lesser opponents before failing victim to the brutal conference schedule.

But perhaps the REAL issue is that there is a reason to be hopeful.  The Confidential can think of several reasons why Eagles’ fans should keep the faith:

  1. Perhaps the Eagles are road warriors, as Providence was the first road game and the closest margin of loss!
  2. The loss margins are on the improve.  Setting aside the Boston University debacle, there has been consistent improvement in the margins of loss.  And, really, the margins of loss have not been that bad.  Better teams have been blown-out by much more this year.
  3. There may not be any final four teams on the schedule, but there are no patsies either.  A lot of midmajors that will be making some noise in March.
  4. The best thing about freshmen is that they become sophomores, Al McGuire once said.  When you have 10 freshmen, you have 10 future sophomores

So, while there are few reasons to cheer right now, there is no reason for utter despair.  In fact, Boston College fans need only look to their football season.  After starting 1-7, the Eagles rallied to finish 4-8.  If the basketball team can show that much growth in the final portion of the season, there will be much reason for optimism heading into 2012-2013.  That does not help today, but should not be forgotten.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , ,
05 Dec 2011

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 5, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 5, 2011:

1.  Syracuse–Win over top 10 Florida keeps the Orange rolling at 8-0.  Fab Melo and Dion Waiters are much improved sophomores.

2. North Carolina–At 6-2, the Tarheels have lost twice.  Both were on the road in tough games.  The loss to Kentucky carries no shame.  Nice win over Wisconsin.

3. Duke–At 7-1, Duke has also beaten some good teams.  The 20-point loss to Ohio State is hard to ignore though.

4. Virginia–At 7-1, the Cavaliers finally got that nice win (over Michigan).  In fact, the Cavs were one of just 4 ACC teams to win their matchup against a Big 10 foe.

5. Pittsburgh–At 7-1, the Panthers are circling the wagons.  Tennessee is not a great team, but a good road win though.

6.  Miami–At 5-2, the win over UMass helps offset the loss to a very good Purdue team on the road.

7. Virginia Tech–One of four 5-3 teams, the Hokies get the edge based on the quality of losses–Syracuse (8-0), Minnesota (8-1), and Kansas State (5-0).

8. Florida State– At 5-3, the Seminoles have also lost to three very good teams in Harvard (8-0), UConn (7-1), and Michigan State (6-2).  Narrowly behind the Hokies in this regard.

9.  North Carolina State–At 5-3, losing at home to Indiana was a bit of a surprise.  Indiana is off to a good start at 8-0, but the Wolfpack need to protect home court.  Stanford and Texas are decent losses too.

10. Wake Forest– At 5-3, the Demon Deacons started the week well by defeating Texas Tech and Nebraska, but closed poorly losing to Richmond.

11. Clemson–at 4-3, with a decent win over Iowa and tough loss to South Carolina.

12. Georgia Tech–at 4-4, Georgia Tech gets the edge over Maryland based on the quality of the losses this week Tulane (9-0) and Northwestern (7-1).

13. Maryland–at 4-3, Maryland showed some life by beating Notre Dame, who is still reeling from the loss of Tim Abromaitis.  A positive sign that a surge may be on the horizon though.

14. Boston College--at 2-6.  Ugh.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Dec 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  With only bowl games remaining, here is how we view the ACC football schools as of December 5, 2011:

1.  Clemson–At 10-3, the Tigers lost more games than Va Tech, but beat the Hokies soundly.  Twice.  Without hosting them in either game.

2. Virginia Tech–at 11-2, Virginia Tech need not be ashamed of its season.  A Sugar Bowl bid as an at-large BCS team now awaits.

3. Virginia–of the three 8-4 teams, Virginia beat both of them.

4. Georgia Tech–at 8-4, the Yellow Jackets’ losses were to teams with a combined record of 35-13.

5. Florida State–at 8-4, the Seminoles losses were to teams with a combined record of 32-16.

6. North Carolina State–North Carolina State gets the edge here for beating North Carolina.

7. North Carolina–same 7-5 record as NC State, who shutout the Tar Heels.

8. Wake Forest–the same 6-6 record as Miami, but Wake Forest gets the edge here.  Wake Forest’s season was bookended by losses to Syracuse and Vanderbilt.

9. Miami–the same 6-6 record as Miami.  Too bad Miami’s season was sandwiched between losses to Maryland and Boston College.

10.  Pittsburgh–the win over Syracuse to get to 6-6 gives them the easy edge.

11.  Syracuse–second-half of season collapse drops them from 5-2 to 5-7 and outside the bowl picture.

12.  Boston College–rallied at the end.

13. Duke–made some strides

14. Maryland–the less said, the better.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
03 Dec 2011

#1 Kentucky Defeats #5 North Carolina, 72-73

In what many consider to be a possible National Championship game matchup, the #1 Kentucky Wildcats defended their home court with a 73-72 victory over #5 North Carolina.  For North Carolina, the loss leave them with a split in a difficult week featuring games against two top 10 teams.  Earlier in the week, the Tar Heels defeated Wisconsin.

With the preseason #1 and the current #1 facing off, it is not surprising that many scouts were on hand to watch North Carolina’s trio of returning stars and Kentucky’s annual one-and-done class of super-freshmen:

Freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had 17 points and 11 rebounds as a spark Kentucky (8-0) needed early before Doron Lamb took control in the second half with 12 of his 14 points as more than two dozen NBA scouts and front office personnel watching one of the most heavily hyped matchups of the season.

After Ohio State’s thumping of Duke, Kentucky needed this win to hold onto its #1 ranking.

For North Carolina, it is somewhat surprising to see this veteran team sitting at only 6-2 right now.  The nation is on notice that the Tar Heels are beatable.

For the ACC, this is yet another tough hit to the reputation.  After starting out so well, the Big 10 proved to be a much superior conference in the ACC-Big 10 Matchup, winning 8 of 12 games.  And now North Carolina has lost 2 of its last 3 games, including what was essentially a road loss to UNLV last weekend.

Compounding today’s misery was Wake Forest being upset by Richmond and Boston College losing to Boston University. However, the good news is that Miami was able to soundly defeat a good UMass team, while Virginia continued to roll with an 86-53 win over Longwood to get to 7-1.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , ,
01 Dec 2011

De Ja Vu: ACC Fairs Poorly in Day Two of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge

The ACC started slow in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge and finished slow, allowing the Big 10 to win 8 out of the 12 games.  This is shaping up as one of those years where the Big 10 is quite strong and the ACC is subpar.

Of course, the ACC does get to claim a victory in the biggest matchup of the night–#9 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina.  In a 60-57 score more befitting of a MAC football game than an ACC basketball game, Wisconsin was able to control the tempo but not the final scoreboard.  But even this win was not overly impressive for the ACC, given the large margin by which Ohio State beat Duke.  At least North Carolina was able to rebound from its loss to UNLV over the weekend and improve to 6-1.

The other ACC win came from Wake Forest, who improved to 5-2 by beating Nebraska.  The 55-53 slugfest gives Wake Forest a nice road win.

The rest of the ACC lost.  In a bit of a surprise, Indiana showed that it is a legitimate 7-0 team by beating NC State on the road, 86-75.  Tom Crean may finally be turning things around in Hoosier-land.  The Wolfpack fell to 5-2 with the loss.

Virginia Tech also fell to 5-2, losing a road game to Minnesota, 58-55.  Minnesota is another team off to a great start at 7-1.  It seems like the entire Big Ten is off to a really good start.

Michigan State is one team that did not get off to a good start this year, losing to North Carolina and Duke.  However, the Spartans have responded with 5 straight wins, including a 65-49 victory against overmatched Florida State.  With the loss, the Seminoles drop to 5-3.

And, in a result that should surprise absolutely no one, hapless Boston College lost to Penn State, at home, 62-54.  Even the Nittany Lions are 6-2.  Boston College dropped to 2-5.

With all precincts reporting, the results are in.  The Big 10 walloped the ACC, 8-4.  Not to beat a dead horse, but the Big 10 is starting out much like the Big East did last year.  They have four undefeated teams (Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, and Northwestern).  In addition, they have two 7-1 teams in Minnesota and Purdue.  Meanwhile, three teams that expect to be in the Big Dance lag behind those schools, with Wisconsin at 6-1 and Michigan/Michigan State both at 6-2.  Only Iowa, at 4-3, is not 2 games above .500 in the Big 10.

In contrast, the ACC has no undefeated schools.  Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia have one loss apiece.  The ACC does have 6 more schools that are at least two games above .500.  Unfortunately, the head-to-head matchups with the major conferences are suggesting that this is going to be a down year for the ACC overall.  The good news is that Duke will likely rebound and North Carolina will be making news all season long.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Nov 2011

ACC Basketball Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of November 28, 2011:

1.  Syracuse–Not going to penalize Syracuse for beating everyone on its schedule.  6-0 is 6-0.  Va Tech and Stanford are good wins too.

Next big test: Florida on December 2.

2. Duke–At 7-0, and with more impressive wins that Syracuse, Duke could be #1.  But both teams are just holding North Carolina’s spot right now.   Duke did great in Maui though.

Next big test: Ohio State on November 29.

3. North Carolina–At 5-1, North Carolina gets a huge benefit of the doubt here after that loss to UNLV.  2 huge tests coming up–we’ll know a lot more soon enough.

Next big test: Wisconsin on November 30.

4. Virginia Tech–At 5-1, the Hokies looked very good in losing to Syracuse and beating Oklahoma State.

Next bit test:  Minnesota on November 30.

5. North Carolina State–At 5-1, North Carolina State is off to a real good start.  The win over Texas was nice.

Next big test: Indiana on November 30.

6. Pittsburgh–At 5-1, the Panthers are still reeling from the loss to Long Beach State.  Winning, but not entirely impressively.

Next big test: Tennessee on December 3.

7. Virginia–At 5-1, the Cavaliers still have no quality wins.  And that bad loss to TCU lingers.

Next big test: Michigan on November 30.

8.  Miami–At 4-1, the loss to Mississippi is not the worst loss ever.  A good team gets the win there.

Next big test: Purdue on November 29.

9.  Florida State– At 5-2, hit a rough spot with losses to Harvard and UConn.  Two very good teams, but two losses nevertheless.

Next big test: Michigan State on November 30.

10. Wake Forest– At 4-2, the Demon Deacons have two decent losses, but got a nice win over Texas Tech to give them the edge of Georgia Tech here.

Next big test: Nebraska on November 30.

11. Georgia Tech–at 4-2, Georgia Tech needs a good win soon.

12. Clemson–at 3-2, with closer losses, Clemson gets the nod here.

13. Maryland–at 3-2, same record as Clemson, but barely beat Florida Gulf Coast and some horrible losses.

14. Boston College--at 2-4.  Nowhere to go but up.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 28, 2011:

1.  Virginia Tech–at 11-1, Virginia Tech head into the ACC Championship Game on the highest of highs.

2. Clemson–after losing two straight, Clemson limps into the ACC Championship Game at 9-3.

3. Virginia–of the three 8-4 teams, Virginia beat both of them.  The loss to the Hokies was a major disappointment, but they get the nod here.

4. Georgia Tech–at 8-4, the Yellow Jackets’ losses were to teams with a combined record of 35-13.

5. Florida State–at 8-4, the Seminoles losses were to teams with a combined record of 32-16.

6. North Carolina State–the loss to Boston College remains disappointing, but North Carolina State gets the edge here for beating North Carolina.

7. North Carolina–same 7-5 record as NC State, who shutout the Tar Heels.

8. Wake Forest–the same 6-6 record as Miami, but Wake Forest gets the edge here.  Wake Forest’s season was bookended by losses to Syracuse and Vanderbilt.

9. Miami–the same 6-6 record as Miami.  Too bad Miami’s season was sandwiched between losses to Maryland and Boston College.

10.  Pittsburgh–second-half collapse against West Virginia leaves Pitt at 5-6, with a game against Syracuse to decide who gets bowl eligibility.

11.  Syracuse–second-half of season collapse continued with a drubbing by wounded Cincinnati.  Still can get to bowl eligibility with a win over Pitt.

12.  Boston College–the win over Miami gives the Eagles three conference wins.  That has to mean something.

13. Duke–the best 3-9 team in the country?  We’ll leave that for someone else to figure out.

14. Maryland–the Randy Edsall era is not exactly off to a great start.  Like Rich Rodriguez, one wonders if it is possible to fix.  If you are brought in to take your team to the next level, dropping down three levels is a poor way to start.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
27 Nov 2011

Review of ACC Football Predictions, November 27, 2011

After a 4-3 week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Miami (6-5) hosting Boston College (3-8)

Prediction: Miami 17-Boston College 10.

Result: Boston College 24, Miami 17.  The Confidential got the Miami score right, but missed entirely on whether Boston College would show up for this game.  The Eagles’ defense certainly did, forcing 4 turnovers and returning an interception for a touchdown.  0-1.

Georgia Tech (8-3) hosting Georgia (9-2)

Prediction: Georgia 33-Georgia Tech 24.

Result: Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17.  This Georgia team has only lost to South Carolina and Boise St.  While they avoided all the big boys of the SEC West, Georgia Tech was no match for the Bulldogs.  That being said, Georgia has its hands full against LSU.  Good luck with that.  1-1.

North Carolina (6-5) hosting Duke (3-8)

Prediction: North Carolina 21-Duke 14.

Result: North Carolina 37, Duke 21.  Pretty much according to plan here.  North Carolina’s scoring output was a bit of a surprise, but Duke is much better at home.  2-1.

North Carolina State (6-5) hosting Maryland (2-9)

Prediction: NC State 28-Maryland 13.

Result: NC State 56, Maryland 41.  Credit Maryland for jumping out to a 41-14 lead.  Credit NC State for scoring the last 42 points.  Maryland’s disappointing season ends in a most disappointing way.  NC State shows a lot of heart here.  The Wolfpack even saw to it that The Confidential’s prediction margin of victory hold true!   3-1.

Wake Forest (6-5) hosting Vanderbilt (5-6)

Wake Forest 28-Vandy 24.

Result: Vandy 41, Wake Forest 7.  Wow.  This was a surprise.  Chalk one up for the SEC.  3-2.

Florida (6-5) hosting Florida State (7-4)

Prediction: Florida State 27-Florida 23.  

Result: Florida State 21, Florida 7.  Nice work by Jimbo Fisher and crew to end the regular season on a high note.  At the same time, it is shocking how far the Gators have fallen.  All that talent and a 6-6 record?   4-2.

South Carolina (9-2) hosting Clemson (9-2)

Prediction: Clemson 26-South Carolina 20.

South Carolina 34, Clemson 13.  Well, so much for Clemson ending on a high note.  Being blown out in their last two games is a nice shiv in the side to the ACC.  Clemson drops to 9-3 and takes a lot of the luster out of the ACC Championship Game.  4-3.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Virginia (8-3) hosting Virginia Tech (10-1). 

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24-Virginia 14.

Result: Virginia Tech 38, Virginia 0.  Credit Mike London for getting Virginia to 8 wins.  But this is just a reminder of how far Virginia has to go to best its rival.  Virginia Tech is rolling now.  Hokies fans are certainly wondering how it is that Clemson is the reason why they are not undefeated.  But they get their opportunity for some revenge this week in the ACC Championship game.  5-3.

 


Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
26 Nov 2011

ACC Basketball Review: Harvard Upsets #20 Florida State

Friday was a good day for Massachusetts schools playing ACC schools from Florida.  Boston College traveled to Miami and upset the Hurricanes in football, 24-17.  But, in an even bigger upset, Harvard beat #20 Florida State in the semifinals of the Battle 4 Atlantis in the Bahamas, 46-41.

No, that score is not a misprint.  Harvard held Florida State to 41 points.  In fact, the halftime score was 14-14, which is far more befitting of a college football score.  In fact, according to CBS, the 28 points scored by both teams was historically inept:

The halftime score was 14-14, matching the lowest total for a half in a Division I game since 1986. Ole Miss (15) and South Carolina (13) also combined for 28 points in the first half of their game on Jan. 8, 2003. The Seminoles were 5 for 24 from the field in the first half, and Harvard went 3 for 23.

Those figures are just abysmal.  Between the two teams, they were 8 for 47 in the first half!  That is less than 20% shooting. In fact, while both teams improved in the second-half, Harvard won despite shooting 27.3% from the field for the game.  Interestingly, the teams were 8 for 27 from 3-point land: 29.6%.  Overall, they were 29 for 91 from the field: 31.9%.  Florida State actually shot better from behind the arc than overall!

With the win, Harvard advances to play Central Florida for the tournament championship.  UCF upset #4 Connecticut, who blew a 17 point lead in the second half.  Raise your hand if you guessed a Harvard-UCF title game!  Florida State gets to rebound from its awful performance by playing a motivated UConn team.

In other games:

  • In a result that surprised nobody, #1 North Carolina improved to 5-0 by defeating South Carolina 87-62.
  • Future ACC member Syracuse, currently ranked #5, rallied to defeat a tough Stanford team, 69-63, to win the NIT Preseason Tipoff Classic.  Syracuse improved to 6-0 in defeating the 5-1 Cardinal.
  • Wake Forest was obliterated by Arizona State, 84-56.  The Sun Devils were 1-3 heading into the game.  This does not bode well for the Demon Deacons.
  • Boston College showed some signs of life, fending off California Riverside, albeit in overtime.  A win is a win.
  • Clemson got to 3-2 by defeating Furman, 59-49.
  • Maryland also got to 3-2 by defeating Florida Gulf Coast, 73-67.
  • Future ACC member Pittsburgh justified its #17 ranking by taking care of business against Pennsylvania, 78-58, to improve to 5-1.
  • North Carolina State improved to 5-1 by defeating Elon, 82-67.
  • Virginia also improved to 5-1, defeating Wisconsin-Green Bay, 68-42.
  • Miami fell to Mississippi in overtime, 64-61.  With the loss, Miami falls to 4-1, while Mississippi improves to 5-1.  This loss may not look as bad in March if Mississippi ends up being on the right side of the bubble.

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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