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11 Jan 2012

First 2012 Football Rankings….

With the 2011 college football season ending about 24 hours ago, a few national writers decided to waste little time in making 2012 football rankings.  Here is a summary of how the ACC fared in those early rankings.

CBS’s Brett McMurphy provided his rankings.  The top 5 were LSU, USC, Georgia, Alabama, and Oregon.  In terms of ACC schools, here is McMurphy’s rankings and analysis:

13. Clemson: No, West Virginia did not just score again. Well, maybe they did. The Tigers were the laughingstocks of the bowl season after losing 70-33 in the Orange Bowl. This year, Clemson should be in good position to make a run as repeating as ACC champions. QB Tajh Boyd, big-play WR Sammy Watkins and RB Andre Ellington are among seven offensive returning starters. TE Dwayne Allen left early for the NFL Draft. Defensively, seven starters are back — which depending your view of the Orange Bowl performance — might or might not be a good thing. Clemson faces a pair of SEC teams (Auburn and South Carolina) in nonconference play, while the Tigers’ biggest potential pitfalls in ACC play are home against Virginia Tech and at Florida State.

15. Florida State: Based on returning talent, Florida State should probably be ranked much higher, but I’m hesitant to put the Seminoles higher after last season when FSU was arguably the nation’s most disappointing team. A top five preseason team, the Seminoles failed to even win the ACC Atlantic Division. Injuries played a part. This season the Seminoles have nine returning starters each on offense and defense. The key will be the effectiveness of QB EJ Manuel and playmakers Chris Thompson and Rashad Greene. The Seminoles’ defense, which led the ACC and ranked fourth nationally, could be even better, especially with DE Brandon Jenkins and CB Greg Reid opting to return for their senior seasons. Florida State’s toughest road trip will be to Virginia Tech, while the Seminoles get West Virginia, Florida and Clemson in Tallahassee.

19. Virginia Tech: Last year, Virginia Tech limited eight opponents to 17 points or less and the Hokies return virtually everyone from that unit, including DEs James Gayle and J.R. Collins, LBs Tariq Edwards and Jack Tyler and CB Kyle Fuller. The Hokies also get back LBs Bruce Taylor and Jeron Gouveia-Winslow and DT Antoine Hopkins, who missed all or part of last season because of injuries. RB David Wilson’s departure is a blow, but QB Logan Thomas continues to get better. The nonconference schedule is tougher than last season, featuring a pair of Big East teams (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati), while the Hokies toughest ACC tests will be home against Florida State and at Clemson.

He also “considered” Georgia Tech.

Not to be outdone, ESPN’s Mark Schlabach did a top 25 as well.  The top 5 were LSU, USC, Alabama, Oregon, and Oklahoma.  In terms of ACC schools, here is Schlabach’s rankings and analysis:

8. Florida State Seminoles:
We’re taking the bait on the Seminoles again, even after they failed to live up to very high aspirations with a 9-4 finish in 2011. But FSU’s lofty preseason billing might have been a year premature, and injuries plagued the Seminoles throughout the season. FSU’s defense is as good as advertised and it might be even better in 2012 with nine starters coming back. Defensive end Brandon Jenkins and cornerback Greg Reid both passed up entering the NFL draft to return to school. If FSU is going to become a legitimate BCS contender, though, its offense has to be better and more explosive. The Seminoles had young skill players in 2011 and they started four freshman offensive linemen against Notre Dame in the Champs Sports Bowl. Another concern will be replacing All-American punter Shawn Powell. FSU plays seven home games, but it will travel to Virginia Tech during ACC play.

18. Virginia Tech Hokies: If there’s one thing you can count on every season, it’s that Virginia Tech will win at least 10 games and be in contention in the ACC title race. With a new quarterback and revamped defense, the Hokies went 11-3 in 2011. Virginia Tech will have to rebuild its offense to do it again in 2012. Quarterback Logan Thomas will be back for his second season as a starter, but the Hokies won’t have record-setting tailback David Wilson, who is leaving for the NFL draft as a junior. They’re also losing four starting offensive linemen and top receivers Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale. The good news is that as many as nine starters might be back on defense — if junior cornerback Jayron Hosley comes back. The Hokies play nonconference games at Pittsburgh and against Cincinnati at FedEx Field in Landover, Md., and they play ACC road games at Miami, North Carolina and Clemson.

22. Clemson Tigers: Tigers coach Dabo Swinney can only hope his team uses its embarrassing loss in the Orange Bowl as motivation in the offseason. Clemson won an ACC title and started 8-0, but a 2-4 slump down the stretch left some serious concerns. Quarterback Tajh Boyd should be better in his second season running offensive coordinator Chad Morris’ high-octane attack. Tailback Andre Ellington is considering jumping to the NFL draft, and junior tight end Dwayne Allen has already decided to turn pro. The Tigers also must replace four starting offensive linemen, and there isn’t a lot of depth in the trenches. Five starters must be replaced on defense, including top linebacker Andre Branch. The Tigers will open the season against Auburn in one of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game matchups and will play ACC foes Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech at home.

24. NC State Wolfpack: After a 2-3 start, in which Wolfpack coach Tom O’Brien was criticized for turning quarterback Russell Wilson loose, NC State rallied to win six of its last eight games, including a 31-24 victory over Louisville in the Belk Bowl. Quarterback Mike Glennon ended up being a more-than-capable replacement for Wilson, throwing for 3,054 yards with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’ll be without three of his top four receivers in 2012, with wideouts T.J. Graham and Jay Smith and tight end George Bryan each departing. Seven defensive starters are expected back, but the Pack will have to rebuild the defensive line and linebacker corps. The secondary should return intact, including ball-hawking cornerback David Amerson. NC State opens the ’12 season against Tennessee in one of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game matchups and plays nonconference games against Connecticut (road) and FCS foes South Alabama (home) and The Citadel (home).

Yep, that’s 4 ACC schools in his top 25.  Not too shabby if it comes true.  After all, the ACC ended 2011 with only three ranked schools, none of them in the top 15.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
10 Jan 2012
1 Comment

ACC Divisional Breakdowns After Expansion

Much has been written or discussed regarding the anticipated divisional breakdowns in the ACC after Syracuse and Pittsburgh are added.  While the Confidential appreciates that the football-elite schools in the Southern portion of the ACC would want to avoid a geographic division, the Confidential believes that there are numerous reasons why a straight geographical breakdown is prudent.

When the Confidential discusses a geographically based breakdown, this is what the Confidential actually envisions:

  • ACC North: Boston College, Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Miami
  • ACC South: Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, North Carolina State, North Carolina, Clemson, and Florida State.

Inherent in that process is that, for football, the teams would have “locked-in” rivalries against the team directly above/below in the standings.  This would allow Miami to play Florida State every year and maintain the North Carolina-Virginia rivalry.  With a 9-game conference schedule, that would allow 2 other cross-divisional games.  With 8 games, perhaps there could be some rotation of the cross-over game to allow some variety.

The Confidential anticipates that some will argue that these divisions are not adequately balanced.  How so?  Regardless of the pedigree of Clemson and Florida State, it is Virginia Tech that has carried the ACC flag in BCS games.  Moreover, the ACC Championship game will settle it on the field.

Also, who can say what division in a conference is going to be better?  A few years ago, the SEC East was the powerhouse, with Florida, Tennessee, and Georgia.  Now?  It is the West with LSU, Alabama, and Auburn.  These things are cyclical.

More importantly, let’s say the ACC South is way better than the North.  That just means that the winner of the South will have that much better of a strength of schedule and be appropriately battle-tested for its bowl game.  With a 2-15 record in BCS games, the ACC needs to start caring about BCS bowl-performance.

The other good thing about this division is that it is logical.  Miami has terrible attendance anyway and, as a private school, lacks the graduate bank to fill-up road stadiums.  Plus, with its Big East history, games against its former Big East foes will be logical draws.  Plus, the northern schools have ample Florida retirees to contribute to the attendance at Miami games.  And it is a destination.  If you are living in Boston or New York, a road Miami game is a vacation (perhaps even from the snow).  If you live in Atlanta?  Not quite as much.

But above all else, such as division makes logical sense.  A fan in California or Idaho or Minnesota will be able to easily tell which team belongs in what division.  Quick–are Penn State and Michigan in the same Big 10 division?  You don’t know.  Because it is not geographically based.  While ACC fans may be able to remember who is Atlantic or Coastal, the rest of the country cannot and will not keep track of it.  No need to make it confusing.

Such a division also ensures that the neighboring rivalries are preserved.  Why prevent Maryland, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Boston College from playing each other every year?  Historically, these teams played each other quite a bit.  You do not need to create these rivalries–merely resurrect them.  And what is more likely–a Pittsburgh fan driving to Syracuse or Maryland… or a Pittsburgh fan driving to North Carolina State?

In any event, the Confidential challenges anyone to explain why this system would not be better than the proposal to just plop Syracuse and Pittsburgh into one of the Atlantic or Coastal divisions already in place.  Go for it.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
09 Jan 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 9, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of January 9, 2012:

1.  Syracuse (17-0)  Wins over Providence on the road and #20 Marquette at home have Syracuse at 17-0.  They travel to Villanova this week, before hosting Providence.

2. North Carolina (15-2)  The Tar Heels are starting to find their groove again.  This weeks foes, Miami and Florida State, have not gotten off to the starts that they wanted/needed.

3. Duke (13-2)  The loss to Temple was disappointing, but not terrible.  The win over Georgia Tech is not that informative.  The next game, Virginia, is for #3.

4. Virginia (14-1)  Virginia has now won 12 straight games.  If the Cavs can beat Duke, that will get everyone’s attention.

5. North Carolina State (12-4)  The win over much-improved Maryland was nice.  Gives the Wolfpack the edge over Virginia Tech, who lost to Wake Forest.

6. Virginia Tech (11-4)  Road loss to Wake Forest was a disappointment, but not the end of the world.  Virginia Tech still has a decent resume overall.

7. Maryland (10-4) Road loss to NC State was a disappointment.  The Terps host Wake Forest and can solidify the #7 spot with a win.

8. Wake Forest (10-4) Up a few notches after beating Virginia Tech.  Beating Maryland on the road would be even more impressive.

9. Miami (9-5)  Miami lost its conference opener in a tough road loss to Virginia.  And now they travel to North Carolina on Tuesday.  Tough start to the conference schedule.

10. Pittsburgh (11-5)  Not only have the wheels fallen off, they are rolling around somewhere nowhere near Pitt.  That’s what happens when you lose to DePaul.

11. Clemson (9-6)  Looked very good against Florida State.  Clemson gets Boston College this week for a chance to get that 10th win.

12. Florida State (9-6)  Beating Auburn was nice.  Losing to Clemson was tough.  Losing by 20 was inexcusable.  The Seminoles travel to Virginia Tech before hosting North Carolina this week.  Uh-oh.

13. Georgia Tech (7-8) After getting decimated by Alabama, the Yellow Jackets held their own against Duke.  At least for a while.

14. Boston College (5-10)  It is unfortunate when the worst team in the league has to open its conference schedule at North Carolina.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
08 Jan 2012

ACC Basketball Recap: January 7, 2012

The ACC opened conference play yesterday and there were a lot of good games.  And all the ranked teams held off their opponents.

In the closest game of the day, #21 Virginia improved its winning streak to 12 by defeating visiting Miami, 52-51.  The Cavaliers led by 11 at the half, but the Hurricanes made it a see-saw affair for most of the second half in this very low-scoring tilt.  Although maybe some criticism for the offenses is justified, the defenses can take credit for each team shooting under 40% for the entire game.   Miami big man Kenny Kadji led the team with 14 points and 10 rebounds.  Virginia forward Mike Scott led all scorers with 23 points, while also adding 8 rebounds of his own.  With the loss, Miami falls to 9-5 on the season.  Virginia moves to a very impressive 14-1.  All ACC eyes now turn to their upcoming visit to Duke on January 12.

Speaking of Duke, the #5 Blue Devils were the only ACC team to win on the road as Duke defeated struggling Georgia Tech, 81-74.  Georgia Tech was never able to grab a lead and ultimately suffered its fourth straight loss to fall to 7-8 on the season.  But it was not for the lack of effort by Glen Rice, Jr, who led all scorers with 28 points.  Instead, credit goes to Duke for rebounding from its loss to Temple with a good performance on the road.  Ryan Kelly led Duke with 21 points, while Seth Curry added 15 in a balanced Duke attack.  With the win, Duke improves to 13-2 on the season.

In a somewhat surprising result, Wake Forest was able to defeat Virginia Tech at home, 58-55.  After going 1-15 in conference play last year, Wake Forest has already matched its conference win total from last year.  As the score indicates, neither team shot very well, with both teams failing to surpass the 40% barrier.  And CBS provides the following play-by-play recap of the exciting finish:

The Hokies took their first lead of the game at 53-52 when Jarell Eddie knocked down a 3-pointer with 1:18 left. But [C.J.] Harris answered seconds later, faking a pass to the left corner to buy some space and then burying the 3 for the 55-53 lead with a minute left.

[Erick] Green answered with a jumper with 45.1 seconds left, but Harris came through again by rounding a screen from Carson Desrosiers and burying another 3 to make it 58-55. This time that lead held up, though not until after Robert Brown missed a hurried long 3 on the Hokies’ final possession. Travis McKie grabbed the rebound and was fouled with 0.2 seconds left, essentially sealing the victory.

Harris and McKie led Wake Forest with 13 and 12 points, respectfully. Green’s 19 points led Virginia Tech.  With the win, Wake Forest improves its overall record to 10-5.  With the loss, Virginia Tech falls to 11-4.

And, in a matchup between two ranked teams, #1 Syracuse held off #20 Marquette, 73-66.  Syracuse led by as many as 23 in the first half, only to see its 18-point halftime lead evaporate within minutes in the second half.  Marquette even got as close as 2 points down the stretch before Syracuse closed them out to improve to 17-0 on the season.  Darius Johnson-Odom led Marquette with 21 points, while Brandon Triche led Syracuse’s typically balanced scoring attack with 16 points.  Syracuse will keep its well-deserved #1 ranking for yet another week.

In other games, the visitors were not able to keep the games close at all. #3 North Carolina had no trouble in defeating cellar-dweller Boston College, 83-60.  With the win, North Carolina moves to 14-2.  Clemson upended visiting Florida State, 79-59.  Both teams are now 9-6.

In today’s action, Maryland (10-3) will travel to North Carolina State (10-4).

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , ,
07 Jan 2012

ACC Football: Early Entry Draft Update

With the ACC football season coming to a conclusion, ’tis the season for underclassmen to announce that they are foregoing the excitement of playing college football.  The dollars of the NFL, or perhaps the nickels of the CFL or AFL or any other initialed FL out there, are the lure.  For some players, they are ready and it is a smart decision.  For others, it is a head-scratcher. In any event, here is where things stand for some of the ACC’s top players.

  • ACC Player of the Year David Wilson, Virginia Tech running back, has announced that he will head to the NFL.
  • ACC Defensive Player of the Year Luke Kuechly, Boston College linebacker, has announced that he will head to the NFL. For more on his decision, check out BC Interruption.
  • Dwayne Allen, Clemson tight end
  • Lamar Miller, Miami running back.  For more on his decision, check out The 7th Floor.
  • Brandon Washington, Miami guard
  • Jayron Hosely, Virginia Tech cornerback
  • Chandler Jones, Syracuse defensive end.  For more on his decision, check out Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician.
  • Sylvester Williams, North Carolina defensive tackle
  • Chris Givens, Wake Forest wide receiver.  For more on his decision, check out Blogger So Dear.
  • Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech wide receiver.  For more on his decision, check out From the Rumble Seat.
  • Terrell Manning, North Carolina State linebacker.  For more on his decision, check out Backing the Pack.
  • Tommy Streeter, Miami wide receiver
  • Marcus Forston, Miami defensive tackle
  • Olivier Vernon, Miami defensive end
  • Donte Paige-Moss, North Carolina defensive end.  For more on his decision, check out Carolina March.

As the above list shows, Miami stands to lose a ton of players to the NFL.  Of course, once upon a time, Miami would lose a ton of players to the NFL and simply reload.

It is difficult to envision Boston College and Syracuse not suffering on defense with the loss of their best overall players.  Wake Forest and Georgia Tech will also suffer offensively without their standout wide receivers.  But the loss of all of these guys will hurt their respective teams.  They are potential NFL players because of their talent, after all.

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
06 Jan 2012

The ACC Bowl Disaster

Yesterday, the Confidential noted that the ACC needed Miami and Florida State to return to King status soon.  As the bowl season comes to a conclusion, it is clear that something is just not right with the conference from a football standpoint.

The bowl season began with the optimism of the ACC landing two teams in BCS bowls–Clemson and Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech was a surprise entrant into the Sugar Bowl and acquitted itself reasonably well in shutting down Michigan and only losing in overtime.  In many respects, Virginia Tech outplayed the Wolverines and deserved to win.  But they did not.  Another BCS loss for the ACC.

The hope on Wednesday night was that Clemson could do its part to carry the ACC by “taking care of” West Virginia in the Orange Bowl.  This is the same West Virginia team that beat 2-10 Maryland by 6 points.  The same West Virginia team that lost to Syracuse 49-23.  Clemson would have no trouble, right?

Wrong.

Instead, Clemson had one of the most embarrassing big stage performances in the history of the big stage, losing 70-33.  70 points.  35 in the second quarter.  A 99-yard fumble return.  589 yards of offense allowed.  The most points EVER scored by a team in a bowl game.  Conversely, Clemson allowed more points than any other team in bowl history has ever allowed.  And this was not to Oregon, Stanford, or Wisconsin.  This was not LSU or Alabama.  This was the West Virginia described above.  Utterly embarrassing.

According to CBS, the ACC has dropped to 1-5 in the last 6 Orange Bowl games:

ACC Champions in Orange Bowl
Year ACC Champ Result
2012 Clemson L, West Virginia 70-33
2011 Va. Tech L, Stanford 40-12
2010 Va. Tech W, Cincinnati 20-7
2009 Va. Tech L, Kansas 24-21
2008 Wake Forest L, Louisville 24-13
2007 Florida St. L, Penn State 26-23

4 different teams, the same dismal results.  In fact, according to ESPN, the ACC is now 2-13 in BCS bowl games.

In addition to the BCS games, Virginia, Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and North Carolina also lost their bowl games.  Fortunately, North Carolina State and Florida State won its bowl games.  That leaves the ACC at 2-6, with Pittsburgh yet to face SMU.

Wait, Florida State won its bowl game?  If you believe that the ACC needs Florida State to be leading the charge for the ACC, that is about the only good news to come out of this bowl season.  Two straight 9-win seasons.  If Florida State can take it up another level, maybe the ACC can deliver on its promise to be home to great football.  That’s the closest to good news that ACC football will have until kickoff next year.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Jan 2012
1 Comment

ACC Football: The Need for Florida State and Miami

The formula is pretty simple for the ACC.  It needs Miami and Florida State to play like kings.  It needs Virginia Tech and Clemson to be the next closes thing to a king.  And it needs a few other schools to rise up every few years and/or win impressive out-of-conference games, including bowl games.  But none of that works unless Miami and Florida State can return to something closer to the glory days.  They are the schools that need to carry the conference in football.

The Kings

Football is an elitist sport.  No matter how bad Ohio State and Florida might be, a win over those schools means a lot and a loss to these schools is respectable.  In contrast, losing to Iowa State is an unacceptable result.  Nevermind that Iowa State had the same regular season record as those schools in 2011, Oklahoma State was punished substantially for its loss to Iowa State.  Iowa State is simply not Ohio State or Florida, regardless of the record.

Once upon a time, Miami and Florida State were kings.  From 1987 to 2000, Florida State went 11-1, 11-1, 10-2, 10-2, 11-2, 11-1, 12-1, 10-1-1, 10-2, 11-1, 11-1, 11-2, 12-0, and 11-2.  From 1983 to 2003, Miami had more than a dozen 10 win seasons, including three undefeated seasons. That is how you become a king–you win 10 or more games more often than not (or consecutively) for so long that people do not even know what it is like for you to not be in the top 10, much less unranked.

But that all ended in 2004, when Miami joined the ACC.  Perhaps not because of the move to the ACC.  But the move has certainly coincided with the fall from the top.  Since then, Miami has not had a 10-win season.  Florida State had one–in 2010.  Instead of playing like kings, these schools have played like princes.  Or worse.  Boston College won 10 games in both 2006 and 2007.  Wake Forest won 11 in 2006.  Obviously, it is not impossible to win 10+ games in the ACC.  The Florida schools just have not been able to do so.

For 2011, it was more of the same.  Miami went a pedestrian 6-6.  Good enough for a bowl, but the looming scandal persuaded the administrators to prudently pass that up.  Florida State did better, going 9-4.  But that is still not king territory.

What Went Wrong

The easiest answer is to blame the coaching situation.  Bobby Bowden might have stayed a bit too long–past his prime.  And Miami fired Larry Coker for having the audacity to not win 10 games and did not replace him.  Unlike the pros, college sports is dominated by coaches.

But the Confidential thinks it goes deeper than that.  In recent years, many schools have taken to recruiting Florida heavily.  When Greg Schiano moved up to Rutgers, he kept his Florida ties and established a pipeline from Miami to New Jersey.  The Louisville coaching staffs have consistently focused on Florida, from John L. Smith to present.  Wherever Rich Rodriguez was during the 2000’s, he recruited top athletes from Florida.  Add in the usual suspects, such as all of the SEC and ACC, as well as Notre Dame, and Florida talent is not slipping by.

Meanwhile, South Florida and Central Florida have arrived on the scene.  These schools have the ability to siphon off some of the great talent, while also keeping some of the good talent at home.  South Florida has made great strides toward converting Florida into a Big Four.

Will it Change?

Well, this is two straight 9-4 seasons for Florida State.  And it is a young team that can legitimately be projected to get over the 10-win barrier next year.  They have continued to stockpile talent via recent recruiting classes.  If it can translate into on-field performance, then Florida State will be back.

Miami is a different story.  While the scandal from last summer has died down, the NCAA is likely to dole out some sort of punishment.  So it is going to get worse before it gets better.  But Al Golden seems like the right fit to get the job done.  He kept that team together for most of the season.  Take away the head-scratching losses to Maryland (suspension-filled) and BC (already announced it was not bowling), and Miami was only beaten by Virginia, Va Tech, Kansas State and Florida State.  Four games by a total of 18 points.  If the sanctions are not too significant, Miami can rebound in a few years.

The bottom line is that the ACC needs things to change.  Virginia Tech and Clemson may win a national title some day, but failing to do so when Miami and FSU were reeling suggests otherwise.  As the bowl losses and national-reputation hits mount, it is going to take one or both of the Florida schools to state the ACC’s case on the national picture.  The sooner, the better.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , ,
02 Jan 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: January 2, 2012

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of January 2, 2012:

1.  Syracuse (15-0)  Still rolling.  #1 in the country and just picked up a win in Chicago over DePaul.

2. North Carolina (13-2)  The Tar Heels are still winding their way through a weak part of the schedule.

3. Duke (12-1)  Temple and Georgia Tech this week.  The OOC is almost over.

4. Virginia (12-1)  Things are looking good for the Cavs.  12-1, with conference play on the horizon.

5. Virginia Tech (11-3)  Great win over Oklahoma State in Stillwater.  Wake Forest looms this weekend.

6. North Carolina State (10-4) 4-0 since losing to Syracuse.  One more OOC to plod through before the conference games start.

7. Maryland (9-3) 6 wins in a row, with Cornell up next.

8. Florida State (8-5)  Loss to Florida was disappointing.  Lost to Princeton is a serious blow.

9. Pittsburgh (11-4)  Another loss.  Wheels are starting to fall off here.

10. Wake Forest (9-4)  Record is nice, but the level of opponents is just not there.

11. Miami (8-4)  The Hurricanes need to do some damage in early conference play.

12. Georgia Tech (7-6) The wheels have fallen off.   This team is too good to be struggling at .500.

13. Clemson (8-6)  13th, but a lot of room to move up.  Clemson may be better than a few teams ahead of them.

14. Boston College (5-8)  Still in the cellar.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
31 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Final 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the final 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Clemson, Virginia Tech, and future member Pittsburgh.  So far, the Confidential is 3-1, correctly predicting the results on all but the Wake Forest game.

On January 3rd, the Sugar Bowl will feature Virginia Tech (11-2) and Michigan (10-2).  This game will be a battle between the explosive running attack of the Wolverines and the stingy rushing defense of Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech was able to bottle up Georgia Tech earlier in the year.  However, Michigan was able to move the ball against a good Nebraska defense.  Neither team had an extraordinarily difficult schedule.  The Hokies will be playing without their kicker, which might make a difference if this comes down to a low-scoring game.  Giving the Hokies defense this much time to prepare is the difference.   Prediction: Virginia Tech 21-Michigan 16.

On January 4th, the Orange Bowl will put ACC Champion Clemson (10-3) against Big East Champion West Virginia (9-3). Both of these teams had disappointing seasons for conference champions.  West Virginia certainly wishes it could redo a few of its games, especially the blowout loss to 5-7 Syracuse.  Clemson had that perplexing blowout loss to North Carolina State.  In losing to these teams, both foes showed that they can be shutdown completely.  At the same time, Clemson showed that it could beat tough teams, as demonstrated by wins over Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech.  West Virginia played LSU tough for a spell, but really lacks that quality win.  Prediction: Clemson 35 – West Virginia 27. 

Last, but certainly least, future ACC member Pittsburgh takes its 6-6 record into Birmingham to face 7-5 SMU in the BBVA Compass Bowl.  Pittsburgh has been in a state of coaching flux.  SMU was able to keep June Jones from wandering away.  Maybe Pitt can win this one to stick it to former coach Todd Graham, but the Confidential just does not see it.  Prediction: SMU 24- Pittsburgh 20.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
29 Dec 2011
1 Comment

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 29, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 29, 2011:

1.  Syracuse (14-0)  Still rolling.  Destroyed a decent Seton Hall team in the conference opener.

2. North Carolina (12-2)  The Tar Heels don’t play a ranked team until February 8th against Duke.

3. Duke (10-1)  If Duke wins the next five, including games against Temple and Virginia, they have to move ahead of North Carolina.

4. Virginia (11-1)  The Confidential moved the Cavs ahead of Pittsburgh in the last rankings… and Virginia is now ranked in the polls too.

5. Virginia Tech (10-3)  An upcoming game against Oklahoma State is a rare in-season rematch against an OOC foe.

6. Florida State (8-4)  Loss to Florida was disappointing.  But Florida is really, really good this year.

7. Pittsburgh (11-3)  No excuse for loss to Wagner.  Even the loss at Notre Dame is a head shaker.

8.  North Carolina State (8-4) 2-0 since losing to Syracuse.  All winnable games for a few more weeks.  Need to keep the momentum going.

9. Maryland (8-3) Maryland rises another spot–the Terps have won FIVE in a row now.

10. Wake Forest (8-4)  A few wins in a row now against middling competition.

11. Miami (7-4) Played some tough opponents, but Miami needs to start stringing together wins.

12. Georgia Tech (7-5) Lost to Mercer was unacceptable.

13. Clemson (7-6)  Just not winning enough.  Got to win early in the season to have a chance.

14. Boston College (5-7)  Three in a row going into game against ranked Harvard.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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