The Confidential

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14 Nov 2011

The Confidential College Basketball Top 25: November 14, 2011

With college basketball heating up, here is The Confidential’s Top 25  as of November 14, 2011

1.  North Carolina–best quartet of players in the country.

2. Ohio State–the best PLAYER in the country.

3. Kentucky–another absurd recruiting class.

4. Syracuse–as deep as any team Jim Boeheim has ever had.

5. UConn–Lamb is great, but growing paints in the post-Walker era.

6. Duke–Unimpressive against Belmont, better against Presbyterian.

7. Florida–solid returning cast.

8. Pittsburgh–always tough, literally and figuratively.

9. Memphis–best year post-Calipari?  Undoubtedly.

10. Louisville–already an injury.

11. Wisconsin

12. Kansas

13. Baylor

14. Xavier

15. Arizona

16. Michigan

17. Vanderbilt

18. Alabama

19. Cincinnati

20. Marquette

21.  Texas A&M

22. California

23. Florida State.

24. Gonzaga

25. Michigan State

If we are nuts, feel free to tell us.  Sadly, the Internet will store this for future mocking down the road.  But that’s how we see it, as of today.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
14 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 14, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 14, 2011:

1.  Clemson–At 9-1 with a victory over Wake Forest, Clemson guaranteed itself a spot in the conference championship game.  From here, Clemson needs to win out to show that it deserves the top 10 ranking.  The conference NEEDS Clemson at 11-1.

2. Virginia Tech–In beating Georgia Tech, Va Tech has solidified itself of #2.  With games remaining against talented North Carolina and rival/rolling Virginia, it will not be easy for the Hokies to finish 11-1.  The dream matchup of 11-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 Va Tech is still alive though.  While a rematch, this would capture attention.

3. Georgia Tech–Of the three 7-3 teams, The Confidential will give Georgia Tech the nod here.  It beat Clemson… giving it the best win of the bunch.  While Virginia has the head-to-head advantage, Virginia also has the head scratching losses to NC State and Southern Mississippi.

4. Florida State–This young team is rolling now.  With the 3-game losing streak a mere blip in the rear-view mirror, these kids appear to be coming together at the right time.  Head-to-head matchup with Virginia will tell us a lot.

5. Virginia–At 7-3, Virginia could fairly be ranked #3 or #4 here.  But The Confidential will require Virginia to prove it on the field first.  As noted above, the win over Georgia Tech is offset by some poor losses.  A win over Florida State would vault them to #3.

6. Miami–held their own against a hot Florida State team.  On the road.  While an argument could be made for North Carolina here, Miami showed that it belonged here by beating North Carolina on the road.

7. North Carolina– At 6-4, North Carolina gets a huge test against Virginia Tech this week.  Winning at the Hokies is rarely expected, but the Tarheels need to show that they can compete to maintain this slot.

8.  Wake Forest– So many close games for Wake Forest.  Playing Clemson to the wire is just another example of same.

9.  Syracuse–after three losses in a row, it is tempting to drop Syracuse to double-digits.  However, they still have wins over West Virginia and Wake Forest.  The latter is something that North Carolina State could not do.  A week off before taking on Cincinnati.

10.  North Carolina State– Losing to Boston College pretty much sums up this enigma of a team.  With Maryland coming up after the Clemson game, NC State can still get bowl eligible.

11. Pittsburgh— Beating Louisville to get to 5-5 made it tempting to slide Pittsburgh up a few notches.  With games @ West Virginia and hosting Syracuse to finish the regular season, this will be resolved on the field.

12.  Duke—Played Virginia tough before fading.  The Blue Devils get the edge over Boston College based on the head-to-head.

13. Boston College–the win over NC State provided some good news for the fan base.  Upcoming games against Notre Dame and Miami may not make continued good news a safe bet.

14. Maryland- as if it couldn’t get worse, the drubbing by Notre Dame also featured a season-ending injury to Danny O’Brien.  At 2-8, it is difficult to see this team winning either of its two remaining games–both of which are on the road.

What do you think?  Do we have it right?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
13 Nov 2011

ACC HOOPS: November 13, 2011

After only two days, the ACC remains perfect.  Current ACC teams are now 10-0.  Future ACC teams are 2-0.  12-0!  Send them to a BCS bowl!

In a strange scheduling twist, Duke played Presbyterian the day after narrowly defeating Belmont.  The result was much better for the Blue Devils, as they rolled over Presbyterian, 96-55.  As you may have seen scrolling across your TV yesterday, this win gives Coach K his 902 win–tying him with Bobby Knight for most wins.  Pretty darn amazing.  Fact that you DID NOT know: the Presbyterian nickname is Blue Hose.  Here comes the Blue Hose.  I am thinking Blue Sox might have been a better way to go.  In any event, Duke is 2-0.

Staying within the top 10, Syracuse also won its opener, defeating Fordham 78-53.  Jim Boeheim has a long way to go to catch Coach K, but did you know that if he can win 24 games this year, he will pass Dean Smith?  With this team, winning less than 24 games will be a disappointment.  More depth than he has ever had.  Ask him, he’ll tell you.

Finally, Virginia Tech got the season off to a good start, defeating East Tennessee State 64-53.  Perhaps this is the year that Seth Greenberg gets the Hokies off the bubble.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , , ,
13 Nov 2011
1 Comment

ACC Football Predictions (Post-Games Review)

ANYONE can make predictions… few are willing to face the music afterwards.  The Confidential turns directly towards the orchestra…

Florida St. (6-3) hosting Miami (5-4)

With all the history, it is hard to believe that this is an afterthought game this week.   In any event, who has any idea what Miami is?  They lost to terrible Maryland, but their others losses are to 3 teams with a combined record of 21-6.  Meanwhile, the wins over Ohio State and Georgia Tech are certainly decent.  Florida State is a bit easier to figure out, with losses to Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest.  However, Florida State’s wins are over a sorry lot of teams.  While Florida State is at home, The Confidential meekly predicts a Miami upset.   Miami 27-Florida St. 20.

Actual score… Florida State 23-Miami 19.  Kudos to Florida State for keeping the momentum going.  With the youth on the Seminoles, it is not difficult to envision them returning to the top 10 next season.  Great recruiting classes will not hurt either.  Meanwhile, a nice comeback by Miami, but too little too late.  Had they converted the 2-point conversion after the second touchdown, who knows what happens?   Confidential Record: 0-1.

Clemson (8-1) hosting Wake Forest (5-4)

Clemson’s home victories include Auburn, Florida State, and North Carolina.  Wake Forest’s road wins were against Duke and Boston College.  We like what Wake has done this year, but just do not see Clemson losing two in a row.  Clemson 35-Wake Forest 21.

Actual score… Clemson 31-Wake Forest 28.  Clemson put up over 500 yards of offense, but it was only barely enough as they won by a field goal.  With the win, Clemson clinches the division title and will play in the conference championship game.  Poor Wake Forest.  This team played well enough to win, but just fell short.  Confidential Record: 1-1.

Georgia Tech (7-2)  hosting Virginia Tech (8-1)

Fresh off a win over Clemson, hosting Virginia Tech is Georgia Tech’s opportunity to start chasing Clemson in the standings.  Before Clemson, Georgia Tech did not have a very impressive win.  The most impressive was likely North Carolina.  Virginia Tech took care of Wake Forest on the road and Miami at home.  In this instance, there is something about giving Frank Beamer all this time to prepare for Georgia Tech.  The unique offenses are vulnerable with extra time to prepare.  Virginia Tech 24- Georgia Tech 21.

Actual score: Virginia Tech 37-Georgia Tech 26.   Things are setting up quite nicely for a rematch between Clemson and Virginia Tech.  Va Tech has rallied quite well since losing to Clemson.  It would be ideal for both teams to keep the momentum and be 11-1 heading into the conference championship game.  The ACC could use the PR boost by having two top-10 teams square off.  Georgia Tech continues to be a tough team to figure out.  Confidential Record: 2-1.

Maryland (2-7) “hosting” Notre Dame (6-3)

Notre Dame has lost to Tulsa in recent years.  Nothing is off the table.  But Maryland has shown absolutely no sign of life recently.  The team peaked in Week 1 against Miami.  Not a good sign.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame has caused itself to lose in each of its three losses.  If they can protect the football, they win going away.  They likely will.  Notre Dame 35-Maryland 16.

Actual Score: Notre Dame 45-Maryland 21.  Hey, let’s hope that this is a conference game someday.   Let me clarify… an ACC conference game.  In any event, Maryland’s disaster season continues.  Notre Dame, in turn, is setting itself up for a nice bowl.  Confidential Record: 3-1.

Virginia (6-3) hosting Duke (3-6)

Duke has some mojo.  They have looked very good at times this year.  Of course, they also lost to Richmond.  Virginia’s head coach Mike London knows all about Richmond, going 24-5 there in two seasons.  If he can win this game, he will have his FBS record up to .500.  Virginia is looking good and at home.  They should win.  Virginia 33-Duke 21.

Actual Score: Virginia 31-Duke 21.  The Confidential NAILED this one.  Yeah, it was not the work of Nostradamus to pick Virginia over Duke here.  But how about that score?  Trying to figure out how Virginia did not pick up a safety.  Ah well.  Confidential Record: 4-1.

Boston College (2-7) hosting North Carolina St. (5-4)

The Tom O’Brien Bowl.  This one has the feel of an upset.  Boston College cannot be THIS bad.  North Carolina State is coming off a huge win over its rival.  If we have seen one thing this year, it is that momentum is fleeting.  The Eagles get the upset.  Boston College 21-North Carolina State 20.

Actual Score: Boston College 14–NC State 10.  The Confidential does not like to say “We told you so.”  No, the Confidential LOVES to say it.  People underestimate how hard it is to win on the road.  With the vultures circling the Eagles, they pulled the upset.  Don’t look now, but BC has more conference wins that 13 of its AQ conference brethren.  Meanwhile, NC State falls back to 5-5.  As is the case with a lot of programs, making the leap requires a team to win the games that it is “supposed to win.”  Confidential Record: 5-1.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
12 Nov 2011

And here comes HOOPS!

The 2011-2012 basketball season is officially underway and the ACC is off to a good start.

North Carolina shook of a slow start against Michigan State and took step one towards what everyone expects to be a Final Four appearance.  In the (sorta) inaugural Carrier Classic, the Tarheels defeated the game Michigan State Spartans, 67-55.  With the national spotlight, including a Super Bowl-esque pregame show featuring President Barack Obama, North Carolina did what it was supposed to do.  And you can never take a Tom Izzo coached team lightly.  As usual, the Spartans worked hard on the boards and defensive end.  All in all, a huge win for North Carolina.  They look like they are prepared to live up to the hype.

At the other end of the spectrum, Duke barely defeated Belmont at home, winning 76-77.  Belmont is always one of those teams that you are tempted to pick in March to pull an upset.  Looks like we’ll be seeing them in that spot again this year.  If you watched the game, you know that the dagger was a long three pointer by Andre Dawkins to give Duke a 75-71 edge.  With the shot clock winding down, to make it a 2-possession game with 20 seconds to go is huge.  While it makes you wonder whether Duke is top 10 material at this point, the bottom line is that they won.

And the rest of the ACC held serve as Florida State, North Carolina State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Miami, and Georgia Tech all won.  Even future Big East member Pittsburgh won.

You cannot ask for anything more than 9-0.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
11 Nov 2011

More ACC Basketball Predictions…

ESPN has now released more predictions for the 2011-2012.  Their 15 experts have predicted the major conference champions, the players of the year, the final four teams, and the final game result.

Here is what is noteworthy for the ACC:

  • All 15 experts prediction North Carolina to win the ACC
  • 6 experts predict Syracuse to win the Big East, while 2 pick Pitt to win.  Go future ACC schools!
  • 3 experts predict Harrison Barnes to be the POY.
  • All 15 experts predict that North Carolina will in the final four.
  • No expert predicts Duke or any other current ACC team in the final four.
  • 3  experts pick Syracuse to be in the final four, while 2 experts (different) predict Pitt.
  • Only two experts envision a Championship game without North Carolina.
  • Three more predict that North Carolina will lose the Championship game.
  • The remaining 10 predict that North Carolina will be cutting down the nets.

The pressure is on UNC this year.  Gotta figure that anything short of a title will be seen as a failure with THIS much love.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
10 Nov 2011

ACC Football Predictions: November 12, 2011

Here are The Confidential’s football predictions for games featuring current ACC teams:

Florida St. (6-3) hosting Miami (5-4)

With all the history, it is hard to believe that this is an afterthought game this week.   In any event, who has any idea what Miami is?  They lost to terrible Maryland, but their others losses are to 3 teams with a combined record of 21-6.  Meanwhile, the wins over Ohio State and Georgia Tech are certainly decent.  Florida State is a bit easier to figure out, with losses to Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest.  However, Florida State’s wins are over a sorry lot of teams.  While Florida State is at home, The Confidential meekly predicts a Miami upset.   Miami 27-Florida St. 20.

Clemson (8-1) hosting Wake Forest (5-4)

Clemson’s home victories include Auburn, Florida State, and North Carolina.  Wake Forest’s road wins were against Duke and Boston College.  We like what Wake has done this year, but just do not see Clemson losing two in a row.  Clemson 35-Wake Forest 21.

Georgia Tech (7-2)  hosting Virginia Tech (8-1)

Fresh off a win over Clemson, hosting Virginia Tech is Georgia Tech’s opportunity to start chasing Clemson in the standings.  Before Clemson, Georgia Tech did not have a very impressive win.  The most impressive was likely North Carolina.  Virginia Tech took care of Wake Forest on the road and Miami at home.  In this instance, there is something about giving Frank Beamer all this time to prepare for Georgia Tech.  The unique offenses are vulnerable with extra time to prepare.  Virginia Tech 24- Georgia Tech 21.

Maryland (2-7) “hosting” Notre Dame (6-3)

Notre Dame has lost to Tulsa in recent years.  Nothing is off the table.  But Maryland has shown absolutely no sign of life recently.  The team peaked in Week 1 against Miami.  Not a good sign.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame has caused itself to lose in each of its three losses.  If they can protect the football, they win going away.  They likely will.  Notre Dame 35-Maryland 16.

Virginia (6-3) hosting Duke (3-6)

Duke has some mojo.  They have looked very good at times this year.  Of course, they also lost to Richmond.  Virginia’s head coach Mike London knows all about Richmond, going 24-5 there in two seasons.  If he can win this game, he will have his FBS record up to .500.  Virginia is looking good and at home.  They should win.  Virginia 33-Duke 21.

Boston College (2-7) hosting North Carolina St. (5-4)

The Tom O’Brien Bowl.  This one has the feel of an upset.  Boston College cannot be THIS bad.  North Carolina State is coming off a huge win over its rival.  If we have seen one thing this year, it is that momentum is fleeting.  The Eagles get the upset.  Boston College 21-North Carolina State 20.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
07 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 7, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 7, 2011:

1.  Clemson–With the week off, no reason to demote.  Need to be focused against Wake Forest this week.

2. Virginia Tech–The fact that Miami handled Duke easily makes that narrow victory look a bit worse… but not enough to drop in the standings.

3. Georgia Tech–Florida State appears back on track.  Going to need to play well to hold them out of the #3 spot.  But with a game against the Hokies coming up, the focus is on rising to #2.

4. Florida State–Another dominant win, this time over hapless Boston College.  These are important wins for re-establishing the brand though.  A win over Miami would be huge.

5. Miami–A dismantling of Duke is nice, but let’s see how they do against Florida State.

6. Virginia–At 6-3, the Cavs are now bowl-eligible and looking good.

7. North Carolina State– Everyone else lost.  Not sure anyone deserved to be the #7 team. 

8.  Wake Forest– Played Notre Dame tough, but still a winnable game.   Needs just one win for bowl eligibility.

9.  Syracuse–two road losses in a row have Syracuse still a win away from bowl eligibility.

10.  North Carolina–no excuse for getting shutout.  This team has more talent than that.

11. Pittsburgh— Played Cincinnati tough, but in the end the loss of Ray Graham was too much to overcome.

12.  Duke—After taking the Hokies to the final minutes, Duke did not show up against Miami.  At 3-6, the bowl dreams are down to a flicker.

13. Boston College–they caught Florida State at a bad time, as the Seminoles are on a roll right now.

14. Maryland- dark days in College Park.  

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
04 Nov 2011

ACC Football Predictions: Games for November 5,2011

Here are The Confidential’s football predictions for games featuring two ACC teams (so as to not jinx any conference members):

Miami v Duke.

Miami has been a very difficult team to figure out.  Some losses make sense, others do not.  Duke is also hard to figure out.  While we saw Duke performing well this year at times, who saw a close game against Virginia Tech?  Upon further review, it probably says more about Virginia Tech than Duke.

Miami 24-Duke 13.

Florida St. v Boston College

Fresh off a win over equally hapless Maryland, it would be nice to predict an upset over the Seminoles.  No chance.  Florida State will roll.

Florida St. 38-Boston College 7*

North Carolina v North Carolina St.

I get that North Carolina State is at home.  I really do.  I also get that the Wolfpack are going to be emotionally charged up for this game.  I just think that North Carolina is a better team.  The dismantling of Wake Forest was impressive.  It is this year anyway.

North Carolina 35-NC State 27

Virginia v Maryland

Maryland is just awful.  I mean how bad is it when you lose to Boston College at home?  Boston College was a disaster itself.  This week will be a test of whether the Terps have quit on Randy Edsall.  It doesn’t look good.
Virginia 24-Maryland 16
* Due to a glitch, The Confidential simply neglected to make a timely prediction of the game.  There is no clairvoyance here.  We cheated.  All in good fun…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
03 Nov 2011
3 Comments

ACC Pre-Season Basketball Rankings

As is the case with football, it is a bit difficult to rank Syracuse and Pitt along with the ACC schools.  However, at this stage of the season, a lot of the difficulty is avoided.  After all, nobody has played anyone.  There are no wins or losses to compare/contrast.  So, without further delay, here it goes.

The Confidential’s 2011-2012 Preseason Basketball Rankings:

Tier 1: These fan bases will be disappointed if the dream ends before the Final Four.

#1.  North Carolina.  Maybe it was the risk of an NBA lockout, but when you have three guys of a caliber of Zeller, Barnes, and Henson return, you are going to be #1 in the ACC.  In fact, many have them #1 in the land.

#2.  Syracuse.  All but Rick Jackson return from a team that did quite well last year.  Plus, with Fab Melo down several pounds and much more mobile, there might not be a drop off in the middle.

#3.  Pitt.  More experience returning than Duke, so we’ll give Pitt the edge here.  This may look like a poor selection early on if Nasir Robinson is more seriously injured that it seems.

#4.  Duke.  Too much talent to rank any lower.  Sure, one can worry about the players that left this team, such as Kyrie Irving.  But this team just rotates in elite talent every year.

Tier 2: Big Dance or Bust

#5.  Virginia.  This was a team that won 7 conference games without Mike Scott.  Add him back into the mix and The Confidential sees good things happening.

#6.  Florida St.  Leonard Hamilton has this team on a bit of a roll.  After going 11-5 last year, there is little reason to doubt that the Seminoles will do well this year.

#7.  Virginia Tech.   Poor Virginia Tech.  It seems like every year they are on the bubble.  If they can finish in the top 5 of this year’s ACC, perhaps that will get them over the hump.

#8.  Miami.  I like Jim Larranaga.  After what he did at George Mason, it is hard not to root for him.  I do question how he will do with someone else’s players.

#9.  Georgia Tech.  Glen Rice has been a dominant player for what seems like 25 years now.  What?  That’s his son?

#10.  North Carolina State.  With Lorenzo Brown, North Carolina State may be a bit underrated here.

Tier 3: NIT would be acceptable

#11.  Clemson.  Too much lost talent to be confident that this team will make a run.

#12.  Maryland.  Hopefully, this Maryland coaching transition will go smoother than the football transition.  At #12, this isn’t much smoother.

#13.  Boston College.  No real reason to put them #13.  However, it just feels bad for Boston College to be so down in both football and hoops.

#14.  Wake Forest.  Not persuaded that they are truly #14, but if the debate between #13 and #14 gets the blogosphere riled up…. that would be a strange combination of impressive and pathetic.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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