The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the tag “Football”

01 Nov 2011
6 Comments

Proposal to “Cure” the BCS

The BCS annoys many people, but it was designed to ensure that the #1 team and the team #2 team face each other whenever possible.  Before the BCS, the bowl tie-ins created a situation where the #1 team and the #2 team might not play.  In recent years, there has usually been an ability to match the #1 and #2 teams.  The debate has turned to how to decide the #1 and #2 teams, particularly where a Cincinnati, TCU, or Boise St. was left out.  But, for the most part, the BCS has worked.

The problem for the BCS is that it awards money to conferences based on the matchups NOT featuring team #1 and team #2.  The six major conferences get paid no matter what.  This has been unfair to the major conferences when an 8-4 UConn team has gotten to represent the Big East.  This was unfair to the conferences that had 10 win teams placed in inferior bowls or matched up against an inferior foe.  This is also unfair to the lesser conferences, that have watched 10 or 11 win teams miss out while a worse team gets in.

The Confidential has a solution:

  1. The SEC, Big 10, ACC, Big XII, and Pac-12 get AQ bids with a full share payout.
  2. The Big East and MWC-CUSA are “semi-qualified conferences” get AQ bids with a full share payout, except 3, 4, and 5 below.
  3. The BCS representative of the Big East and MWC-CUSA merger must have 2 or fewer losses to participate.
  4. If either or both conferences cannot produce a champion that qualifies, the BCS is free to take a different team.
  5. Where a different team is taken, the conference of that school and the conference that lost its AQ status for that year (and only that year) split a share.
  6. If either of the semi-qualified conferences place a team in a BCS bowl for 5 straight years, the standard will be relaxed to 3 or fewer losses.
  7. If either of the semi-qualified conferences fail to place a team in a BCS bowl for 3 out of any 5 consecutive years, the BCS conferences can–by majority vote–exclude them from semi-qualification.
  8. There is no prohibition against any conference having 3 teams in BCS games in any given year.

This would allow the Big East to stay regional by taking Temple, Navy, East Carolina, UCF, Memphis, SMU, and Houston.  The Big East can decide which ones get full membership vs. football only.

The other conference can have 10-20 teams, led by Boise St., that would anchor the West and Midwest (except SMU/Houston).

The merits of BCS membership would be decided by the teams and conferences and provide for long-term stability.

The 5 BCS conferences will not be stuck with an 8 or 9 win team from the semi-qualified conferences, and will instead get to have its own superior teams placed that year.  Plus, in those circumstances, more money than under current system.

Posted by acaffrey in Football and tagged , , ,
31 Oct 2011

ACC Football Rankings

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of October 31, 2011:

1.  Clemson–The Confidential is sticking with Clemson here.  Losing to Georgia Tech was disappointing, but not disastrous.

2. Virginia Tech–hard to move the Hokies after they only barely beat Duke.

3. Georgia Tech–the win over Clemson gets things back on track.

4. Florida State–dominant win over North Carolina State suggests that better times are ahead.

5. Miami–the loss to Virginia is a step backward.

6. North Carolina– Almost moved the Tarheels ahead of Miami.  Impressive win over Wake Forest.

7.  Syracuse– Hugely disappointing loss to Louisville.  They get the edge with the win over Wake Forest.

8.  Wake Forest–Needed that North Carolina win to get to the next level.

9.  Virginia– With wins over Miami and Georgia Tech, this is the one team that may be significantly underrated at this point.  The Confidential is feeling a bit guilty here.

10. Pittsburgh— A win over UConn without their best player gets them the nod here, but it may be a short-lived stay this high.

11.  Duke—Playing the Hokies close is better than getting shellacked by the Seminoles.  We still expect NC State and Duke to flip.

12. North Carolina State–hard to not penalize a team that did not score.  I am sure the Wolfpack will rise up a few slots soon enough.

13. Boston College– the head-to-head matters, but the fact that Maryland just seems to have quit on Edsall carries the day.

14. Maryland- Beating Boston College to go to 3-5 was imperative.  This team is reeling.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
30 Oct 2011

No ACC Teams in New AP Top 10

The October 30, 2011, AP poll has now been released:

AP Top 25 Ranking

Rank Team Record Pts Last Week
1. LSU (47) 8-0 1439 1
2. Alabama (10) 8-0 1401 2
3. Oklahoma St. 8-0 1305 3
4. Stanford 8-0 1278 4
5. Boise St. (1) 7-0 1241 5
6. Oregon 7-1 1148 7
7. Oklahoma 7-1 1096 11
8. Arkansas 7-1 1035 8
9. Nebraska 7-1 976 13
10. South Carolina 7-1 861 14
11. Clemson 8-1 851 6
12. Virginia Tech 8-1 755 15
13. Michigan 7-1 718 17
14. Houston 8-0 611 18
15. Michigan St. 6-2 586 9
16. Penn St. 8-1 553 21
17. Kansas St. 7-1 536 10
18. Georgia 6-2 446 22
19. Wisconsin 6-2 420 12
20. Arizona St. 6-2 384 23
21. USC 6-2 323 20
22. Georgia Tech 7-2 230 NR
23. Cincinnati 6-1 128 24
24. West Virginia 6-2 111 25
25. Auburn 6-3 107 NR
Others Receiving Votes:

  • Texas 99,
  • Southern Miss 67,
  • Washington 52,
  • Ohio St. 37,
  • TCU 26,
  • Texas A&M 25,
  • Florida St. 4,
  • Notre Dame 1
ACC observations:
  • It is not at all surprising that Clemson dropped in the polls, given the loss to Georgia Tech.
  • And it is perfectly reasonable for Georgia Tech to move back into the standings at #22.
  • Despite narrowly beating Duke, Virginia Tech moved up a few spots in the standings as well.
  • And Florida State’s big win over North Carolina State has them back receiving a few votes.
  • As such, the ACC has 4 of the top 32 teams right now.  Decent, but not outstanding.
General observations:
  • Hard to disagree with the top 5 right now.
  • Boise St. is a BIG Georgia fan, needless to say.
  • Kind of surprising to see Michigan State drop below Michigan.  The Spartans just got done with a four-game stretch involving Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska.  Going 3-1 is fairly impressive.  That Notre Dame loss certainly hurts.
  • The new Big 12 has 5 of the top 30 teams.  The new SEC has 7 of the top 31 teams, including 4 in the top 10.
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , ,
30 Oct 2011

And then there were none… Clemson loses to Georgia Tech

They say that college football is great because every week is a playoff game.  The Confidential tends to agree.  With a few exceptional situations or seasons, only undefeated teams have a chance of being one of the top two teams and, therefore, eligible to play for the national championship.  The season starts with all undefeated teams and gradually whittles its way down to just a few.  Going into Week #9, the ACC was fortunate enough to still have an undefeated team: Clemson.  After Week 9, however, the ACC has been eliminated from the national title picture because Clemson lost to Georgia Tech, 31-17.

At 7-2, the Georgia Tech win over now 8-1 Clemson should not be seen as a total surprise.  And the story should be about Georgia Tech.  Unfortunately, college football is a sport of tiers, with Clemson vying to join the top tier for 2011.  So, with all due respect to Georgia Tech, the lead on this story is Clemson losing, rather than Georgia Tech winning.

But The Confidential will give Georgia Tech its due praise.  After losing at Virginia and Miami, it looked as if the Yellow Jackets 6-0 start was a bit of a mirage.  Neither Virginia nor Miami is in the conference title picture.  With Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia remaining on the schedule, there was certainly a chance of finishing with a very mediocre season result.  In defeating Clemson, Georgia Tech took the first step towards avoiding a second-half collapse.

Amazingly, Georgia Tech was able to beat Clemson with virtually no passing game.  Although Georgia Tech does not put up significant passing numbers in most games, averaging about 120 yards per game, they only passed for 60 yards against Clemson.  That’s not a misprint.  60 yards.  Instead, this win was a product of 300 rushing yards, with more than half coming from quarterback Tevin Washington.  Although he has averaged about 60 yards per game rushing, Washington ran for 174 yards against Clemson.

Another story was turnovers.  As it often the case with a football game at any level, Clemson’s four turnovers told much of the story. In the first quarter, Clemson recovered a punt at its own 36 yard line.  On the second play, it fumbled, allowing Georgia Tech to start a drive at the 19 yard line.   This led to a touchdown.  After intercepting a Georgia Tech pass in the fourth quarter in a two-possession game, Clemson had the ball at the Georgia Tech 9-yard line.  On the very next play, Clemson threw an interception.  Give Georgia Tech credit though.  After getting that 4th quarter interception, they marched the ball down the field in a drive consuming nearly 9 minutes of fourth-quarter time.  Even though that drive did not result in a score, it gave Clemson too little time to mount a comeback.

And just like that, the ACC’s hopes of having a team in the national title game evaporated.  Clemson remains in the hunt for a BCS bowl appearance.  The November 10 matchup between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech will go a long way towards determining who plays in the ACC championship game.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , ,
29 Oct 2011

Boston College Gets First 2011 ACC Win

This has been a tough season for Boston College.  No doubt about it. After going bowling last year, Boston College traveled to College Park to take on a Maryland team that has been only slightly better this year.  This made-for-radio battle between two struggling teams was Boston College’s best remaining chance for a win over an FBS school and a conference win.  To its credit, Boston College rose to the occasion and beat Maryland, 28-17.

In fairness, Boston College has been playing without standout running back, Montel Harris.  Harris had nearly 3,600 rushing yards coming into this season.  Today’s win was fueled by 243 yards of rushing from sophomore Rolandan Finch.  Finch nearly doubled his season rushing output in this one game.

With the weather inclement, Boston College was unable to mount any type of passing game.  Boston College attempted 12 passes for only 32 yards.  That is not a misprint–32 yards of passing!  This Boston College run was all about the running game.  With Finch and Andre Williams combining for more than 300 yards of rushing.

For Maryland, the season just gets worse.  Maryland drops to 2-6 overall, with wins against a suspension-depleted Miami team opening week and FCS Towson.  This was the fourth straight conference loss for the Terrapins.  Of course, the first three losses were against unbeaten Clemson, highly ranked Georgia Tech, and Florida St.  But today’s loss got the much-easier final stretch of games off to a poor start.

In fact, it will be interesting to see what the fan reaction to Randy Edsall will be.  Working in Edsall’s favor is the fact that Maryland was 2-10 in 2009.  However, sandwiched around that season were bowl games.  This is not a historically bad season, as was the case with Rich Rodriguez in Michigan, who never could recover the confidence of the fan base after a very poor first year.  But Maryland was 9-4 last year and went bowling.  The fan base has a basis to argue that the cupboard could not have been THAT bare.  Should be interesting times in College Park as the season winds down.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , ,
27 Oct 2011

Big Tests This Saturday

There are a number of interesting games this Saturday.

College football is about having elite teams.  Having a 9-3 conference champion may show that your league has parity, but the nation only cares about the undefeated teams.  Clemson has a chance of reaching that elite status this year, which would be huge for the ACC.  This week, Clemson will be tested by Georgia Tech.  While the Yellow Jackets are reeling right now, they are a formidable foe.  The league would benefit from having Clemson win this game.  And win out until the conference championship game.

In the 1990’s, Florida State could be counted on for 10 and 11 win seasons.  Now?  Not so much.  A game against North Carolina State is the type of game that the old Florida State would handle. The ACC needs Florida State to return to elite status.  Losing a game like this is another step in the wrong direction.

Wake Forest has been a surprise team this year.  After narrowly losing to Syracuse in the opener, Wake Forest has acquitted itself well this year.  North Carolina did well out-of-conference, but has struggled within the conference.  This should be a great matchup.

Boston College v Maryland is not a good game because of the prowess of the two schools.  But it may represent Boston College’s best chance of winning a conference game this year.  Recall that Maryland lost to Temple.  And it was not even close.

Virginia Tech gets Duke.  Duke is improved this year, so Virginia Tech has to be careful.  The Hokies’ can occasionally be vulnerable in games that the rest of the country considers “easy wins.”

After losing to Maryland in the opener, Miami has done reasonably well this year.  The ACC needs Miami to step up and win the winnable games.  While Virginia is on the upswing, the ACC needs its elite programs to return to prominence.

For the new members, Syracuse heads to Louisville this week.  For ACC fans, the rooting interest is easy.  A return to national respectability for Syracuse will help the conference.

And congrats to Pitt for beating UConn in a rare Wednesday night game.  I am sure Pitt will not miss having to play midweek games.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
26 Oct 2011
2 Comments

ACC Football Rankings

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of October 26, 2011:

1.  Clemson–hard to argue with 8-0.

2. Virginia Tech—  again, hard to argue with 7-1.

3. Miami–the Kansas St. loss looks more impressive with every week.  The win over Georgia Tech makes this an easy selection for #3.

4.  Georgia Tech— this starts to get more difficult.  The losses to Virginia and, to a lesser extent, Miami cause some concern.  But with games against #1 and #2 coming up, we’ll find out real soon whether this team was a mirage.

5.  Syracuse– Fresh off the win over previously ranked West Virginia, and coupled with an early season win over Wake Forest, I’ll give the Orange the nod here.

6.  Wake Forest– That season opening loss to Syracuse looks better now, but the win over Florida State is key here.

7.  Florida State–  The most impressive wins are Duke and Virginia.  This is not your father’s Florida State team.

8.  North Carolina State– The loss to Cincinnati is looking more justifiable now.  At some point, this team needs an upset though.

9.  North Carolina– With a win over Rutgers and a win over Virginia, we’ll discount the three losses to teams at the top of these standings.

10. Virginia– The win over Georgia Tech may say more about Georgia Tech fizzling, but it is the best win among the remaining teams.

11. Maryland– This gets REALLY tough down here.  Maryland did beat a rattled Miami team Week 1.  They also rallied against West Virginia.  Grasping at straws at this point.

12. Pittsburgh— Pitt has played a tough-ish schedule, so we’ll give them the nod here.  The win over South Florida is now looking less impressive though.

13. Duke— Overcoming a loss to Richmond is progress.  The win over Boston College certainly helps.  The schedule doesn’t get any easier for the Blue Devils though.  Hard to see them leapfrogging anyone.

14. Boston College– The anti-Clemson.  No wins over a FBS school yet.  Ugh.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
25 Oct 2011

West Virginia to the Big XII?

Nobody can call this a surprise.  I have never quite understood why the Big XII would select Louisville–a relative newcomer to competitive football–over a school with the history of West Virginia. West Virginia has equivalent academics, an entire state fanbase with no real competition, good basketball, and football on a level to compete with anyone (except Syracuse, apparently).

The disappointing thing is that I am sure that Syracuse and Pitt would have loved to see West Virginia join Notre Dame in moving the ACC to 16 teams someday.  While West Virginia’s academics are subpar, Notre Dame would make up for that.  Plus, it is not hard to salivate over a conference division like this:

  • North: BC, Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, ND, Virginia, Va Tech, and Maryland
  • South: Duke, NC, Wake Forest, NC State, Clemson, Ga Tech, FSU, and Miami.

That surely would have made FSU and Clemson happy.  A strong commitment to football. The single greatest threat to the ACC is either (a) the Big Ten wooing Maryland or Va Tech; or (b) the SEC wooing Florida State or Va Tech.  Anything that can keep the football powers (historically, if not recently) happy is good for the entire conference.  While Rutgers may have superior academics and UConn has superior basketball, it is West Virginia that is best suited to placate the football schools.

Of course, Notre Dame has not let out any suggestion that it is ready to give up treasured football independence.  If they are even a few steps away from considering a conference affiliation for football, it is being done entirely behind the scenes. It sure does not seem imminent.

And… it would be naive to think that West Virginia to the Big XII would be permanent.  As long as Texas and Oklahoma have wandering eyes, that conference will always be the least stable conference not named the Big East.  So the ND/WVU dream scenario can always resume in 2018 or 2025 or whenever.

Posted by acaffrey in Conference Realignment and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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