The Confidential

Review of ACC Football Predictions, November 27, 2011

After a 4-3 week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Miami (6-5) hosting Boston College (3-8)

Prediction: Miami 17-Boston College 10.

Result: Boston College 24, Miami 17.  The Confidential got the Miami score right, but missed entirely on whether Boston College would show up for this game.  The Eagles’ defense certainly did, forcing 4 turnovers and returning an interception for a touchdown.  0-1.

Georgia Tech (8-3) hosting Georgia (9-2)

Prediction: Georgia 33-Georgia Tech 24.

Result: Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17.  This Georgia team has only lost to South Carolina and Boise St.  While they avoided all the big boys of the SEC West, Georgia Tech was no match for the Bulldogs.  That being said, Georgia has its hands full against LSU.  Good luck with that.  1-1.

North Carolina (6-5) hosting Duke (3-8)

Prediction: North Carolina 21-Duke 14.

Result: North Carolina 37, Duke 21.  Pretty much according to plan here.  North Carolina’s scoring output was a bit of a surprise, but Duke is much better at home.  2-1.

North Carolina State (6-5) hosting Maryland (2-9)

Prediction: NC State 28-Maryland 13.

Result: NC State 56, Maryland 41.  Credit Maryland for jumping out to a 41-14 lead.  Credit NC State for scoring the last 42 points.  Maryland’s disappointing season ends in a most disappointing way.  NC State shows a lot of heart here.  The Wolfpack even saw to it that The Confidential’s prediction margin of victory hold true!   3-1.

Wake Forest (6-5) hosting Vanderbilt (5-6)

Wake Forest 28-Vandy 24.

Result: Vandy 41, Wake Forest 7.  Wow.  This was a surprise.  Chalk one up for the SEC.  3-2.

Florida (6-5) hosting Florida State (7-4)

Prediction: Florida State 27-Florida 23.  

Result: Florida State 21, Florida 7.  Nice work by Jimbo Fisher and crew to end the regular season on a high note.  At the same time, it is shocking how far the Gators have fallen.  All that talent and a 6-6 record?   4-2.

South Carolina (9-2) hosting Clemson (9-2)

Prediction: Clemson 26-South Carolina 20.

South Carolina 34, Clemson 13.  Well, so much for Clemson ending on a high note.  Being blown out in their last two games is a nice shiv in the side to the ACC.  Clemson drops to 9-3 and takes a lot of the luster out of the ACC Championship Game.  4-3.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Virginia (8-3) hosting Virginia Tech (10-1). 

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24-Virginia 14.

Result: Virginia Tech 38, Virginia 0.  Credit Mike London for getting Virginia to 8 wins.  But this is just a reminder of how far Virginia has to go to best its rival.  Virginia Tech is rolling now.  Hokies fans are certainly wondering how it is that Clemson is the reason why they are not undefeated.  But they get their opportunity for some revenge this week in the ACC Championship game.  5-3.

ACC Football Predictions for November 25-26, 2011

After a 4-3 week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Miami (6-5) hosting Boston College (3-8)

Give it up for Boston College.  They have shown some reason for optimism.  The team did not quit on its coach.  While we are at it, give it up for Miami too.  The self-imposed bowl ban was an absolutely wise decision.  Better to take that now than have it imposed during a great season.  As it is, this game becomes the “bowl game” for both teams.  BC gets to go to Miami.  Miami gets to go to, uh, Miami.  So that’s nice.  Prediction: Miami 17-Boston College 10.

Georgia Tech (8-3) hosting Georgia (9-2)

Two heavyweights in the ACC and SEC battle it out in a rivalry game.  And, by heavyweights, The Confidential means “fourth best teams.”  Georgia has come a long way since 0 and 2.  Along the way, its best win was a 45-7 drubbing of Auburn.  Well, Georgia Tech beat Clemson who beat Auburn.  Applying never-wrong transitive property logic, this would make Georgia Tech way better than Georgia.  The transitive property fails more often than not.  Prediction: Georgia 33-Georgia Tech 24.

North Carolina (6-5) hosting Duke (3-8)

Dick Vitale would love this game, baby!  But, for the rest of us, this is a game featuring an underwhelming North Carolina team and a surprisingly good in losing Duke team.  You know what they say about rivalry games–throw the records away.  Well, that’s going a bit far for this game.  Prediction: North Carolina 21-Duke 14.

North Carolina State (6-5) hosting Maryland (2-9)

Maryland’s season is spiraling out of control.  There is no ACC opponent that would not get a prediction of a win against them. Prediction: NC State 28-Maryland 13.

Wake Forest (6-5) hosting Vanderbilt (5-6)

Both of these teams are on the upswing.  Wake Forest could easily be 8-3.  Vandy is showing signs of being ready for primetime under its new coach.  This is a tough game to predict as Vandy really needs a win.  Still, this is a Wake Forest team that is due for a break or two.  Wake Forest 28-Vandy 24.

Florida (6-5) hosting Florida State (7-4)

This game should be the Game of the Week every year.  What is going on down in Florida?  This never would have happened in the 1990s.  Frankly, it is not clear that this game will have any interest outside the region.  These two teams have given us every reason to suspect that they will lose.  But we have to pick a winner.  So…. Prediction: Florida State 27-Florida 23.  

South Carolina (9-2) hosting Clemson (9-2)

This game should be the Game of the Week this week.  But Clemson had to go and lose.  And South Carolina is really not playing for anything either.  All they have left to play for is supremacy in the state.  That’s all.  A bitter, rivalry game between two foes that hate each other.  Prediction: Clemson 26-South Carolina 20.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Virginia (8-3) hosting Virginia Tech (10-1).  This one is for all the marbles.  At least the Virginia marbles.  Oh, and the winner gets to play Clemson for the right to go to a BCS game.  Virginia is a few years ahead of schedule in the rebuilding process.  Virginia Tech has been a bit underwhelming for a 10-1 team, as crazy as that feels to write.  Virginia is at home and coming together as a team.  Tempting to go with Virginia, but the gut says that Virginia Tech puts it together for this game:  Prediction: Virginia Tech 24-Virginia 14.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Post-Games Review of the ACC Football Predictions for this Past Week

ANYONE can make predictions… few are willing to face the music afterwards.  The Confidential turns directly towards the orchestra… and faces the fact that picking chalk in November is a dangerous game.  A woeful performance.

Prediction: Virginia Tech 20, North Carolina 10.

The Confidential started the week strong.  Sure, the margin was off significantly as Va Tech’s 24-7 lead was narrowed to a final of 24-21.  But the Hokies took care of business, as they were supposed to.  The Hokies control their own destiny now–they are two wins away from a BCS game.

Prediction: Clemson 35, North Carolina State 13.

The Hokies took care of business, but Clemson did not show up.  The score was actually close, but it was a Wolfpack blowout instead, as NC State defeated Clemson 37-13.  Any lingering shred of Clemson making it to the title game against LSU evaporated in less than 24 hours.  Losing narrowly, as several top 10 teams did, would have been bad enough. 

Prediction: Georgia Tech 27, Duke 17

Georgia Tech also took care of business.  More surprising, however, is that Duke’s offense was able to put up 31 points on Georgia Tech.  But, again, at one point the score was 31-17.  Ultimately, the Blue Devils rallied but came up short in a 38-31 loss.  With the win, Georgia Tech moved to 8-3.

Prediction: Wake Forest 30, Maryland 12.

When The Confidential is on, the Confidential is on.  Prediction the win over collapsing Maryland was not hard.  But Wake Forest beat Maryland 31-10, making this an almost perfect prediction.

Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Boston College 14.

While Maryland is busy collapsing, Boston College is busy showing that it has life.  The Eagles’ defense came to play against Notre Dame, holding them to 16 points.  Unfortunately, the offense did about what was expected–only putting up 14 points.  In the end, that makes this a Notre Dame win, 16-14.

Prediction: South Florida 27, Miami 13.  

The Confidential had expected these teams to play football.  Instead, they played international football–what we know as soccer.  How else to explain a 6-3 final score in a 60 minute college football game?  Kudos to Miami for being the Florida team to win and become bowl eligible.  Al Golden is doing good things in Miami.

Prediction: Florida State 24, Virginia 14.

Wow.  One of the most amazing finishes to a football game that anyone will ever see.  And not because of good things.  First, Florida State throws an ill-advised pass to the sideline–but not out-of-bounds–that allows time to run out before a FG can be attempted.  Second, after review determines that the pass was incomplete (a correct ruling, by the way), Florida State gets to try that field goal.  Third, as they are lining up for the field goal, the offensive line moves.  Fourth, the referees rule that the Virginia defensive line caused them to move–meaning the kick moves five yards closer.  At that point, it was as if both teams were trying to lose.  Fifth, and finally, Florida State “won” the battle of the quest to lose by missing the field goal.  Final score–Virginia 14, Florida State 13.

Final tally: The Confidential missed 3 games (NC State, Virginia, Miami).  That’s a 4-3 result.  Not nearly good enough.

ACC Football Predictions for November 19, 2011

After a 5-1  week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Virginia Tech (9-1) hosting North Carolina (6-4)

The easy pick here is Virginia Tech.  Look at where the game is being played.  Look at the records.  Look at the general directions the teams are headed.  Ignore the fact that North Carolina beat Virginia Tech the last time the teams met in Blacksburg.  That last one is bit scary.  But this is game that Virginia Tech needs to control its destiny.  And the Confidential does not see this North Carolina team pulling off the upset.  Virginia Tech 20, North Carolina 10.

North Carolina State (5-5) hosting Clemson (9-1)

Clemson has been making it interesting lately.  And they are surely riding high with their berth in the ACC Championship game now assured.  There is certainly a risk of Clemson looking past the team that just lost to Boston College.  And then there is “any given Saturday.”  But the visitors just have too much talent.  Clemson 35, North Carolina State 13.

Duke (3-7) hosting Georgia Tech (7-3)

Georgia Tech is a hard team to figure out.  They have lost 3 of 4 games.  But that is sandwiched around giving Clemson its only loss.  Georgia Tech is only 2-2 on the road.  Meanwhile, in Duke’s last two home games, they lost to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech by a combined 5 points.  Of course, Florida State and Stanford had their way in that same location.  This is a game where nobody should be shocked if Duke pulls the upset, but The Confidential does not see it.  Georgia Tech 27, Duke 17.

Wake Forest (5-5) hosting Maryland (2-8)

Wake Forest is a team that is two bounces away from being 7-3.  And they have struggled at home against superior foes, such as Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.  Maryland, of course, is not a superior foe.  In fact, Maryland’s season seems to be spiraling out of control.  While nothing is impossible, a Maryland win here would be simply shocking.  Wake Forest 30, Maryland 12.

Notre Dame (7-3) hosting Boston College (3-7)

The Notre Dame ACC tour continues.  So far, Notre Dame has beaten Wake Forest and Maryland in ACC country.  For this one, Notre Dame gets to host it.  While Boston College has won 2 out of 3, this one still looks like a game that Notre Dame will have to lose for itself.  While it has certainly shown the ability to lose games by untimely turnovers in great quantity, it seems unlikely here.  Notre Dame 38, Boston College 14.

South Florida (5-4) hosting Miami (5-5)

This is a battle for bowl eligibility.  Miami does have the benefit of hosting Boston College next week, while South Florida has two conference games remaining.  Miami is likely to be down after a tough loss on the road at Florida State.  Meanwhile, South Florida has some momentum back after righting the ship at Syracuse.  BJ Daniels has not been the problem this year.  This is bigger than a bowl game for the Bulls.   South Florida 27, Miami 13.  

GAME OF THE WEEK

Florida State (7-3) hosting Virginia (7-3).  Virginia has already won at Miami.  But if you look a little deeper, you’ll see that Virginia’s wins are not overly impressive.  Sure, the win over Georgia Tech was impressive.  But this game is, by far, Virginia’s toughest challenge.  At least until next week.  Meanwhile, Florida State seems to have righted the ship.  These are the games that will dictate whether Florida State returns to being football elite or will continue to be mired in mediocrity.  The old Florida State would see 10-3 as the only possible way to salvage the season and prepare for a 14-0 run next year.  Florida State 24, Virginia 14.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong.