The Confidential

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05 Dec 2011

ACC Basketball Rankings: December 5, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of December 5, 2011:

1.  Syracuse–Win over top 10 Florida keeps the Orange rolling at 8-0.  Fab Melo and Dion Waiters are much improved sophomores.

2. North Carolina–At 6-2, the Tarheels have lost twice.  Both were on the road in tough games.  The loss to Kentucky carries no shame.  Nice win over Wisconsin.

3. Duke–At 7-1, Duke has also beaten some good teams.  The 20-point loss to Ohio State is hard to ignore though.

4. Virginia–At 7-1, the Cavaliers finally got that nice win (over Michigan).  In fact, the Cavs were one of just 4 ACC teams to win their matchup against a Big 10 foe.

5. Pittsburgh–At 7-1, the Panthers are circling the wagons.  Tennessee is not a great team, but a good road win though.

6.  Miami–At 5-2, the win over UMass helps offset the loss to a very good Purdue team on the road.

7. Virginia Tech–One of four 5-3 teams, the Hokies get the edge based on the quality of losses–Syracuse (8-0), Minnesota (8-1), and Kansas State (5-0).

8. Florida State– At 5-3, the Seminoles have also lost to three very good teams in Harvard (8-0), UConn (7-1), and Michigan State (6-2).  Narrowly behind the Hokies in this regard.

9.  North Carolina State–At 5-3, losing at home to Indiana was a bit of a surprise.  Indiana is off to a good start at 8-0, but the Wolfpack need to protect home court.  Stanford and Texas are decent losses too.

10. Wake Forest– At 5-3, the Demon Deacons started the week well by defeating Texas Tech and Nebraska, but closed poorly losing to Richmond.

11. Clemson–at 4-3, with a decent win over Iowa and tough loss to South Carolina.

12. Georgia Tech–at 4-4, Georgia Tech gets the edge over Maryland based on the quality of the losses this week Tulane (9-0) and Northwestern (7-1).

13. Maryland–at 4-3, Maryland showed some life by beating Notre Dame, who is still reeling from the loss of Tim Abromaitis.  A positive sign that a surge may be on the horizon though.

14. Boston College--at 2-6.  Ugh.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Dec 2011
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Virginia Tech and Clemson BOTH Heading for BCS Bowls!

The bowl matchups are complete and BOTH Virginia Tech and Clemson are heading for BCS games this year.  The collective wisdom was that the ACC Championship was for the right to play in the Orange Bowl as the ACC’s sole BCS representative.  Nobody expected the loser, in this case Virginia Tech, to sneak in the backdoor and snare the at-large bid to the Sugar Bowl.  But that is exactly what happened–meaning a larger payout to the ACC.

Here are all the bowl matchups:

ORANGE BOWL, January 4, 2012

Clemson (10-3) vs. West Virginia (9-3) in a matchup of two excellent traveling fan bases who consider themselves overdue for a BCS appearance.

SUGAR BOWL, January 3, 2012

Virginia Tech (11-2) vs. Michigan (10-2).  Only Clemson could beat the Hokies.  Can the Hokies stop Denard Robinson?

CHICK-FIL-A Bowl, December 31, 2011

Virginia (8-4) vs. Auburn (7-5)

SUN BOWL, December 31, 2011

Georgia Tech (8-4) vs. Utah (7-5)

MUSIC CITY BOWL, December 30, 2011

Wake Forest (6-6) vs. Mississippi State (6-6)

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL, December 29, 2011

Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

BELK BOWL, December 27, 2011

North Carolina St. (7-5) vs. Louisville (7-5)

INDEPENDENCE BOWL, December 26, 2011

North Carolina (7-5) vs. Missouri (7-5)

Notes:

  • With the Virginia Tech selection to the Sugar Bowl, the ACC was unable to fill all of its bowl slots.  The Military Bowl will now feature Toledo and Air Force.
  • Miami was bowl-eligible, but self-imposed a bowl ban due to possible NCAA rules violations.
  • Future members Syracuse and Pittsburgh battled for a bowl spot, with Pitt winning and earning the right to play in the BBVA Compass Bowl against SMU on January 7, 2012.
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
05 Dec 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  With only bowl games remaining, here is how we view the ACC football schools as of December 5, 2011:

1.  Clemson–At 10-3, the Tigers lost more games than Va Tech, but beat the Hokies soundly.  Twice.  Without hosting them in either game.

2. Virginia Tech–at 11-2, Virginia Tech need not be ashamed of its season.  A Sugar Bowl bid as an at-large BCS team now awaits.

3. Virginia–of the three 8-4 teams, Virginia beat both of them.

4. Georgia Tech–at 8-4, the Yellow Jackets’ losses were to teams with a combined record of 35-13.

5. Florida State–at 8-4, the Seminoles losses were to teams with a combined record of 32-16.

6. North Carolina State–North Carolina State gets the edge here for beating North Carolina.

7. North Carolina–same 7-5 record as NC State, who shutout the Tar Heels.

8. Wake Forest–the same 6-6 record as Miami, but Wake Forest gets the edge here.  Wake Forest’s season was bookended by losses to Syracuse and Vanderbilt.

9. Miami–the same 6-6 record as Miami.  Too bad Miami’s season was sandwiched between losses to Maryland and Boston College.

10.  Pittsburgh–the win over Syracuse to get to 6-6 gives them the easy edge.

11.  Syracuse–second-half of season collapse drops them from 5-2 to 5-7 and outside the bowl picture.

12.  Boston College–rallied at the end.

13. Duke–made some strides

14. Maryland–the less said, the better.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
03 Dec 2011

#1 Kentucky Defeats #5 North Carolina, 72-73

In what many consider to be a possible National Championship game matchup, the #1 Kentucky Wildcats defended their home court with a 73-72 victory over #5 North Carolina.  For North Carolina, the loss leave them with a split in a difficult week featuring games against two top 10 teams.  Earlier in the week, the Tar Heels defeated Wisconsin.

With the preseason #1 and the current #1 facing off, it is not surprising that many scouts were on hand to watch North Carolina’s trio of returning stars and Kentucky’s annual one-and-done class of super-freshmen:

Freshman Michael Kidd-Gilchrist had 17 points and 11 rebounds as a spark Kentucky (8-0) needed early before Doron Lamb took control in the second half with 12 of his 14 points as more than two dozen NBA scouts and front office personnel watching one of the most heavily hyped matchups of the season.

After Ohio State’s thumping of Duke, Kentucky needed this win to hold onto its #1 ranking.

For North Carolina, it is somewhat surprising to see this veteran team sitting at only 6-2 right now.  The nation is on notice that the Tar Heels are beatable.

For the ACC, this is yet another tough hit to the reputation.  After starting out so well, the Big 10 proved to be a much superior conference in the ACC-Big 10 Matchup, winning 8 of 12 games.  And now North Carolina has lost 2 of its last 3 games, including what was essentially a road loss to UNLV last weekend.

Compounding today’s misery was Wake Forest being upset by Richmond and Boston College losing to Boston University. However, the good news is that Miami was able to soundly defeat a good UMass team, while Virginia continued to roll with an 86-53 win over Longwood to get to 7-1.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , ,
01 Dec 2011

De Ja Vu: ACC Fairs Poorly in Day Two of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge

The ACC started slow in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge and finished slow, allowing the Big 10 to win 8 out of the 12 games.  This is shaping up as one of those years where the Big 10 is quite strong and the ACC is subpar.

Of course, the ACC does get to claim a victory in the biggest matchup of the night–#9 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina.  In a 60-57 score more befitting of a MAC football game than an ACC basketball game, Wisconsin was able to control the tempo but not the final scoreboard.  But even this win was not overly impressive for the ACC, given the large margin by which Ohio State beat Duke.  At least North Carolina was able to rebound from its loss to UNLV over the weekend and improve to 6-1.

The other ACC win came from Wake Forest, who improved to 5-2 by beating Nebraska.  The 55-53 slugfest gives Wake Forest a nice road win.

The rest of the ACC lost.  In a bit of a surprise, Indiana showed that it is a legitimate 7-0 team by beating NC State on the road, 86-75.  Tom Crean may finally be turning things around in Hoosier-land.  The Wolfpack fell to 5-2 with the loss.

Virginia Tech also fell to 5-2, losing a road game to Minnesota, 58-55.  Minnesota is another team off to a great start at 7-1.  It seems like the entire Big Ten is off to a really good start.

Michigan State is one team that did not get off to a good start this year, losing to North Carolina and Duke.  However, the Spartans have responded with 5 straight wins, including a 65-49 victory against overmatched Florida State.  With the loss, the Seminoles drop to 5-3.

And, in a result that should surprise absolutely no one, hapless Boston College lost to Penn State, at home, 62-54.  Even the Nittany Lions are 6-2.  Boston College dropped to 2-5.

With all precincts reporting, the results are in.  The Big 10 walloped the ACC, 8-4.  Not to beat a dead horse, but the Big 10 is starting out much like the Big East did last year.  They have four undefeated teams (Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, and Northwestern).  In addition, they have two 7-1 teams in Minnesota and Purdue.  Meanwhile, three teams that expect to be in the Big Dance lag behind those schools, with Wisconsin at 6-1 and Michigan/Michigan State both at 6-2.  Only Iowa, at 4-3, is not 2 games above .500 in the Big 10.

In contrast, the ACC has no undefeated schools.  Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia have one loss apiece.  The ACC does have 6 more schools that are at least two games above .500.  Unfortunately, the head-to-head matchups with the major conferences are suggesting that this is going to be a down year for the ACC overall.  The good news is that Duke will likely rebound and North Carolina will be making news all season long.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
30 Nov 2011

ACC Fairs Poorly in Day One of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge

Six games into the 2011-2012 ACC/Big 10 Challenge, the ACC has gotten off to a very poor start.  In fact, only two of the six games were won by ACC teams.

The most important game of the night was between #2 Ohio State and #3 Duke.  Ohio State jumped out to a 9-0 lead, and widened the score to 47-28 at the half.  The final result was a romp over the visiting Blue Devils, 85-63.  Four Ohio State players combined for 76 of those points, led by Jared Sullinger’s 21 points.  For Duke, this loss takes away the momentum from the great run in Maui.  In its first true road game of the year, Duke was utterly outplayed.

Virginia did salvage some respect for the ACC by defeating #14 Michigan at home, 70-58.  This legitimizes Virginia’s 6-1 start by adding that first quality win to the resume.  Things are looking up in Charlottesville.

Miami hoped to add a similar notch in its belt by traveling to Purdue.  However, the Boilermakers were just too much for the Hurricanes, winning 76-65. Miami fell to 4-2 on the season.

But not all home teams fared well.  Northwestern improved to 6-0 by defeating host Georgia Tech.  In fact, Northwestern dominated to the tune of a 76-60 score.  This may be the year for Northwestern to finally make it to the Big Dance.  For Georgia Tech, they drop to 4-3.

Illinois also notched a win over Maryland in College Park.  The Illini improved to 7-0 in the 71-62 victory.  Maryland is now a disappointing 3-3 as the post-Gary Williams era is off to a slow start.

Thankfully, Clemson was able to topple Iowa in the ACC’s sole road victory.  In fact, Clemson jumped to a 34-20 halftime lead and then coasted to a 71-55 record.  With the win, Clemson is now 4-2.  This was a much-needed win to help offset the two disappointing losses to College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina.

The day belonged to the Big 10 though.  Tomorrow’s big matchup, of course, is #9 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina.  The Tar Heels look to rebound from their upset loss to UNLV.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin is one of five Big 10 teams that is still unbeaten.  Florida State and Michigan State is another matchup to keep an eye on, even though both teams have started a bit slow due to tough schedules.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
29 Nov 2011

Updated ACC Bowl Projections

With the 2011 football season coming to a close, the time is ripe to predict where the various ACC teams are headed for bowl purposes.  Here are The Confidential’s projections as of November 29, 2011:

ACC #1 goes to the Orange Bowl (BCS)-Miami, Florida to face another BCS team on January 4, 2012.

Last Year’s Matchup: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia. 

Explanation: Clemson is reeling.  Meanwhile, the odds are that Cincy will beat UConn, WVU will beat USF, and the voters will like West Virginia. 


ACC #2 goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta, Georgia to face the SEC #5 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Clemson vs. Auburn.   

ACC #3 goes to the Champ Sports Bowl-Orlando, Florida to face Big East #2 on December 29, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Florida State v Notre Dame (eligible to take Big East spot here once every four years)

ACC #4 goes to the Sun Bowl- El Paso, Texas to face Pac-12 #4 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia v Utah.

ACC #5 goes to the Belk Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina to face Big East #3 on December 27, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: South Florida 31, Clemson 26

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Georgia Tech v Louisville.

ACC #6 goes to the Music City Bowl-Nashville, Tennessee to face SEC #7 on December 30, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina v Florida

ACC #7 goes to the Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana to face MWC #3 on December 26, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Wake Forest v San Diego State

ACC #8 goes to the Military Bowl-Washington, DC, to face Navy on December 28, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina State v Cincinnati (Navy fails to qualify)

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Nov 2011

ACC Basketball Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of November 28, 2011:

1.  Syracuse–Not going to penalize Syracuse for beating everyone on its schedule.  6-0 is 6-0.  Va Tech and Stanford are good wins too.

Next big test: Florida on December 2.

2. Duke–At 7-0, and with more impressive wins that Syracuse, Duke could be #1.  But both teams are just holding North Carolina’s spot right now.   Duke did great in Maui though.

Next big test: Ohio State on November 29.

3. North Carolina–At 5-1, North Carolina gets a huge benefit of the doubt here after that loss to UNLV.  2 huge tests coming up–we’ll know a lot more soon enough.

Next big test: Wisconsin on November 30.

4. Virginia Tech–At 5-1, the Hokies looked very good in losing to Syracuse and beating Oklahoma State.

Next bit test:  Minnesota on November 30.

5. North Carolina State–At 5-1, North Carolina State is off to a real good start.  The win over Texas was nice.

Next big test: Indiana on November 30.

6. Pittsburgh–At 5-1, the Panthers are still reeling from the loss to Long Beach State.  Winning, but not entirely impressively.

Next big test: Tennessee on December 3.

7. Virginia–At 5-1, the Cavaliers still have no quality wins.  And that bad loss to TCU lingers.

Next big test: Michigan on November 30.

8.  Miami–At 4-1, the loss to Mississippi is not the worst loss ever.  A good team gets the win there.

Next big test: Purdue on November 29.

9.  Florida State– At 5-2, hit a rough spot with losses to Harvard and UConn.  Two very good teams, but two losses nevertheless.

Next big test: Michigan State on November 30.

10. Wake Forest– At 4-2, the Demon Deacons have two decent losses, but got a nice win over Texas Tech to give them the edge of Georgia Tech here.

Next big test: Nebraska on November 30.

11. Georgia Tech–at 4-2, Georgia Tech needs a good win soon.

12. Clemson–at 3-2, with closer losses, Clemson gets the nod here.

13. Maryland–at 3-2, same record as Clemson, but barely beat Florida Gulf Coast and some horrible losses.

14. Boston College--at 2-4.  Nowhere to go but up.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 28, 2011:

1.  Virginia Tech–at 11-1, Virginia Tech head into the ACC Championship Game on the highest of highs.

2. Clemson–after losing two straight, Clemson limps into the ACC Championship Game at 9-3.

3. Virginia–of the three 8-4 teams, Virginia beat both of them.  The loss to the Hokies was a major disappointment, but they get the nod here.

4. Georgia Tech–at 8-4, the Yellow Jackets’ losses were to teams with a combined record of 35-13.

5. Florida State–at 8-4, the Seminoles losses were to teams with a combined record of 32-16.

6. North Carolina State–the loss to Boston College remains disappointing, but North Carolina State gets the edge here for beating North Carolina.

7. North Carolina–same 7-5 record as NC State, who shutout the Tar Heels.

8. Wake Forest–the same 6-6 record as Miami, but Wake Forest gets the edge here.  Wake Forest’s season was bookended by losses to Syracuse and Vanderbilt.

9. Miami–the same 6-6 record as Miami.  Too bad Miami’s season was sandwiched between losses to Maryland and Boston College.

10.  Pittsburgh–second-half collapse against West Virginia leaves Pitt at 5-6, with a game against Syracuse to decide who gets bowl eligibility.

11.  Syracuse–second-half of season collapse continued with a drubbing by wounded Cincinnati.  Still can get to bowl eligibility with a win over Pitt.

12.  Boston College–the win over Miami gives the Eagles three conference wins.  That has to mean something.

13. Duke–the best 3-9 team in the country?  We’ll leave that for someone else to figure out.

14. Maryland–the Randy Edsall era is not exactly off to a great start.  Like Rich Rodriguez, one wonders if it is possible to fix.  If you are brought in to take your team to the next level, dropping down three levels is a poor way to start.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
27 Nov 2011

Review of ACC Football Predictions, November 27, 2011

After a 4-3 week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Miami (6-5) hosting Boston College (3-8)

Prediction: Miami 17-Boston College 10.

Result: Boston College 24, Miami 17.  The Confidential got the Miami score right, but missed entirely on whether Boston College would show up for this game.  The Eagles’ defense certainly did, forcing 4 turnovers and returning an interception for a touchdown.  0-1.

Georgia Tech (8-3) hosting Georgia (9-2)

Prediction: Georgia 33-Georgia Tech 24.

Result: Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17.  This Georgia team has only lost to South Carolina and Boise St.  While they avoided all the big boys of the SEC West, Georgia Tech was no match for the Bulldogs.  That being said, Georgia has its hands full against LSU.  Good luck with that.  1-1.

North Carolina (6-5) hosting Duke (3-8)

Prediction: North Carolina 21-Duke 14.

Result: North Carolina 37, Duke 21.  Pretty much according to plan here.  North Carolina’s scoring output was a bit of a surprise, but Duke is much better at home.  2-1.

North Carolina State (6-5) hosting Maryland (2-9)

Prediction: NC State 28-Maryland 13.

Result: NC State 56, Maryland 41.  Credit Maryland for jumping out to a 41-14 lead.  Credit NC State for scoring the last 42 points.  Maryland’s disappointing season ends in a most disappointing way.  NC State shows a lot of heart here.  The Wolfpack even saw to it that The Confidential’s prediction margin of victory hold true!   3-1.

Wake Forest (6-5) hosting Vanderbilt (5-6)

Wake Forest 28-Vandy 24.

Result: Vandy 41, Wake Forest 7.  Wow.  This was a surprise.  Chalk one up for the SEC.  3-2.

Florida (6-5) hosting Florida State (7-4)

Prediction: Florida State 27-Florida 23.  

Result: Florida State 21, Florida 7.  Nice work by Jimbo Fisher and crew to end the regular season on a high note.  At the same time, it is shocking how far the Gators have fallen.  All that talent and a 6-6 record?   4-2.

South Carolina (9-2) hosting Clemson (9-2)

Prediction: Clemson 26-South Carolina 20.

South Carolina 34, Clemson 13.  Well, so much for Clemson ending on a high note.  Being blown out in their last two games is a nice shiv in the side to the ACC.  Clemson drops to 9-3 and takes a lot of the luster out of the ACC Championship Game.  4-3.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Virginia (8-3) hosting Virginia Tech (10-1). 

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24-Virginia 14.

Result: Virginia Tech 38, Virginia 0.  Credit Mike London for getting Virginia to 8 wins.  But this is just a reminder of how far Virginia has to go to best its rival.  Virginia Tech is rolling now.  Hokies fans are certainly wondering how it is that Clemson is the reason why they are not undefeated.  But they get their opportunity for some revenge this week in the ACC Championship game.  5-3.

 


Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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