The Confidential

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15 Nov 2011
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ACC Bowl Projections

With the 2011 football season coming to a close, the time is ripe to predict where the various ACC teams are headed for bowl purposes.  Here are The Confidential’s projections as of November 15, 2011:

ACC #1 goes to the Orange Bowl (BCS)-Miami, Florida to face another BCS team on January 4, 2012.

Last Year’s Matchup: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Clemson vs. West Virginia. 

Explanation: Clemson has already defeated Virginia Tech once.  At Virginia Tech.  While the knee-jerk reaction is to think that Virginia Tech gets the better of Clemson a second-time around, The Confidential does not believe that Virginia Tech has the offense to keep up with Clemson.  As for the Big East Champion, Cincinnati without Zach Collaros is a lot different than Cincinnati with him.  They may not lose out, but they will lose one or two.  West Virginia is primed to step in–and they have the head-to-head edge over Rutgers.

 

ACC #2 goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta, Georgia to face the SEC #5 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia.   

 

ACC #3 goes to the Champ Sports Bowl-Orlando, Florida to face Big East #2 on December 29, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Florida State v Notre Dame (eligible to take Big East spot here once every four years)

 

ACC #4 goes to the Sun Bowl- El Paso, Texas to face Pac-12 #4 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Georgia Tech v Arizona State.

ACC #5 goes to the Belk Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina to face Big East #3 on December 27, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: South Florida 31, Clemson 26

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia v Louisville.

 

ACC #6 goes to the Music City Bowl-Nashville, Tennessee to face SEC #7 on December 30, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Wake Forest v Vanderbilt

 

ACC #7 goes to the Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana to face MWC #3 on December 26, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina v San Diego State

 

ACC #8 goes to the Military Bowl-Washington, DC, to face Navy on December 28, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Miami v Cincinnati (Navy fails to qualify)

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
14 Nov 2011

The Confidential College Basketball Top 25: November 14, 2011

With college basketball heating up, here is The Confidential’s Top 25  as of November 14, 2011

1.  North Carolina–best quartet of players in the country.

2. Ohio State–the best PLAYER in the country.

3. Kentucky–another absurd recruiting class.

4. Syracuse–as deep as any team Jim Boeheim has ever had.

5. UConn–Lamb is great, but growing paints in the post-Walker era.

6. Duke–Unimpressive against Belmont, better against Presbyterian.

7. Florida–solid returning cast.

8. Pittsburgh–always tough, literally and figuratively.

9. Memphis–best year post-Calipari?  Undoubtedly.

10. Louisville–already an injury.

11. Wisconsin

12. Kansas

13. Baylor

14. Xavier

15. Arizona

16. Michigan

17. Vanderbilt

18. Alabama

19. Cincinnati

20. Marquette

21.  Texas A&M

22. California

23. Florida State.

24. Gonzaga

25. Michigan State

If we are nuts, feel free to tell us.  Sadly, the Internet will store this for future mocking down the road.  But that’s how we see it, as of today.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
14 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 14, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 14, 2011:

1.  Clemson–At 9-1 with a victory over Wake Forest, Clemson guaranteed itself a spot in the conference championship game.  From here, Clemson needs to win out to show that it deserves the top 10 ranking.  The conference NEEDS Clemson at 11-1.

2. Virginia Tech–In beating Georgia Tech, Va Tech has solidified itself of #2.  With games remaining against talented North Carolina and rival/rolling Virginia, it will not be easy for the Hokies to finish 11-1.  The dream matchup of 11-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 Va Tech is still alive though.  While a rematch, this would capture attention.

3. Georgia Tech–Of the three 7-3 teams, The Confidential will give Georgia Tech the nod here.  It beat Clemson… giving it the best win of the bunch.  While Virginia has the head-to-head advantage, Virginia also has the head scratching losses to NC State and Southern Mississippi.

4. Florida State–This young team is rolling now.  With the 3-game losing streak a mere blip in the rear-view mirror, these kids appear to be coming together at the right time.  Head-to-head matchup with Virginia will tell us a lot.

5. Virginia–At 7-3, Virginia could fairly be ranked #3 or #4 here.  But The Confidential will require Virginia to prove it on the field first.  As noted above, the win over Georgia Tech is offset by some poor losses.  A win over Florida State would vault them to #3.

6. Miami–held their own against a hot Florida State team.  On the road.  While an argument could be made for North Carolina here, Miami showed that it belonged here by beating North Carolina on the road.

7. North Carolina– At 6-4, North Carolina gets a huge test against Virginia Tech this week.  Winning at the Hokies is rarely expected, but the Tarheels need to show that they can compete to maintain this slot.

8.  Wake Forest– So many close games for Wake Forest.  Playing Clemson to the wire is just another example of same.

9.  Syracuse–after three losses in a row, it is tempting to drop Syracuse to double-digits.  However, they still have wins over West Virginia and Wake Forest.  The latter is something that North Carolina State could not do.  A week off before taking on Cincinnati.

10.  North Carolina State– Losing to Boston College pretty much sums up this enigma of a team.  With Maryland coming up after the Clemson game, NC State can still get bowl eligible.

11. Pittsburgh— Beating Louisville to get to 5-5 made it tempting to slide Pittsburgh up a few notches.  With games @ West Virginia and hosting Syracuse to finish the regular season, this will be resolved on the field.

12.  Duke—Played Virginia tough before fading.  The Blue Devils get the edge over Boston College based on the head-to-head.

13. Boston College–the win over NC State provided some good news for the fan base.  Upcoming games against Notre Dame and Miami may not make continued good news a safe bet.

14. Maryland- as if it couldn’t get worse, the drubbing by Notre Dame also featured a season-ending injury to Danny O’Brien.  At 2-8, it is difficult to see this team winning either of its two remaining games–both of which are on the road.

What do you think?  Do we have it right?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
13 Nov 2011
1 Comment

North Carolina Goes to 2-0

Perhaps you were wondering whether the 2011-2012 North Carolina Tarheels could win an indoor game?   The answer to this silly question is “yes.”  Admittedly, today’s win over North Carolina-Asheville tells the country absolutely nothing.  At least nothing it did not already know.  Frankly, even if they had lost, that would not have caused anyone to move them out of their Final Four projections.

But just look what they overcame.  Less than 48 hours after playing a first-of-its-kind game on an aircraft carrier… outdoors… in the twilight… with no student section… with the President making a pregame speech and watching… against physical Michigan State… they hopped a plane and played a road game against North Carolina-Asheville.  Had the Tarheels lost, there would have been a built excuses.  But they won.

The easy post-game review is to credit Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, and John Henson for scoring 64 of the 91 points.  But take a look at what Kendall Marshall did.  15 assists!  All too often, talented teams suffocate under the pressure of keeping everyone happy.  If Marshall is willing to keep the big 3 happy by dishing the ball, that will only add to the dangerousness of this team.

If someone wants to nitpick, they can point out that Marshall had all but one of the team assists.  Or that the team had 17 turnovers against an overmatched foe.  But most elite teams don’t even play road games against this type of foe, so The Confidential is more inclined to simply give credit where it is due.

What do you think–is there ANY reason for North Carolina to not be #1 in the country right now?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , ,
13 Nov 2011
1 Comment

ACC Football Predictions (Post-Games Review)

ANYONE can make predictions… few are willing to face the music afterwards.  The Confidential turns directly towards the orchestra…

Florida St. (6-3) hosting Miami (5-4)

With all the history, it is hard to believe that this is an afterthought game this week.   In any event, who has any idea what Miami is?  They lost to terrible Maryland, but their others losses are to 3 teams with a combined record of 21-6.  Meanwhile, the wins over Ohio State and Georgia Tech are certainly decent.  Florida State is a bit easier to figure out, with losses to Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest.  However, Florida State’s wins are over a sorry lot of teams.  While Florida State is at home, The Confidential meekly predicts a Miami upset.   Miami 27-Florida St. 20.

Actual score… Florida State 23-Miami 19.  Kudos to Florida State for keeping the momentum going.  With the youth on the Seminoles, it is not difficult to envision them returning to the top 10 next season.  Great recruiting classes will not hurt either.  Meanwhile, a nice comeback by Miami, but too little too late.  Had they converted the 2-point conversion after the second touchdown, who knows what happens?   Confidential Record: 0-1.

Clemson (8-1) hosting Wake Forest (5-4)

Clemson’s home victories include Auburn, Florida State, and North Carolina.  Wake Forest’s road wins were against Duke and Boston College.  We like what Wake has done this year, but just do not see Clemson losing two in a row.  Clemson 35-Wake Forest 21.

Actual score… Clemson 31-Wake Forest 28.  Clemson put up over 500 yards of offense, but it was only barely enough as they won by a field goal.  With the win, Clemson clinches the division title and will play in the conference championship game.  Poor Wake Forest.  This team played well enough to win, but just fell short.  Confidential Record: 1-1.

Georgia Tech (7-2)  hosting Virginia Tech (8-1)

Fresh off a win over Clemson, hosting Virginia Tech is Georgia Tech’s opportunity to start chasing Clemson in the standings.  Before Clemson, Georgia Tech did not have a very impressive win.  The most impressive was likely North Carolina.  Virginia Tech took care of Wake Forest on the road and Miami at home.  In this instance, there is something about giving Frank Beamer all this time to prepare for Georgia Tech.  The unique offenses are vulnerable with extra time to prepare.  Virginia Tech 24- Georgia Tech 21.

Actual score: Virginia Tech 37-Georgia Tech 26.   Things are setting up quite nicely for a rematch between Clemson and Virginia Tech.  Va Tech has rallied quite well since losing to Clemson.  It would be ideal for both teams to keep the momentum and be 11-1 heading into the conference championship game.  The ACC could use the PR boost by having two top-10 teams square off.  Georgia Tech continues to be a tough team to figure out.  Confidential Record: 2-1.

Maryland (2-7) “hosting” Notre Dame (6-3)

Notre Dame has lost to Tulsa in recent years.  Nothing is off the table.  But Maryland has shown absolutely no sign of life recently.  The team peaked in Week 1 against Miami.  Not a good sign.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame has caused itself to lose in each of its three losses.  If they can protect the football, they win going away.  They likely will.  Notre Dame 35-Maryland 16.

Actual Score: Notre Dame 45-Maryland 21.  Hey, let’s hope that this is a conference game someday.   Let me clarify… an ACC conference game.  In any event, Maryland’s disaster season continues.  Notre Dame, in turn, is setting itself up for a nice bowl.  Confidential Record: 3-1.

Virginia (6-3) hosting Duke (3-6)

Duke has some mojo.  They have looked very good at times this year.  Of course, they also lost to Richmond.  Virginia’s head coach Mike London knows all about Richmond, going 24-5 there in two seasons.  If he can win this game, he will have his FBS record up to .500.  Virginia is looking good and at home.  They should win.  Virginia 33-Duke 21.

Actual Score: Virginia 31-Duke 21.  The Confidential NAILED this one.  Yeah, it was not the work of Nostradamus to pick Virginia over Duke here.  But how about that score?  Trying to figure out how Virginia did not pick up a safety.  Ah well.  Confidential Record: 4-1.

Boston College (2-7) hosting North Carolina St. (5-4)

The Tom O’Brien Bowl.  This one has the feel of an upset.  Boston College cannot be THIS bad.  North Carolina State is coming off a huge win over its rival.  If we have seen one thing this year, it is that momentum is fleeting.  The Eagles get the upset.  Boston College 21-North Carolina State 20.

Actual Score: Boston College 14–NC State 10.  The Confidential does not like to say “We told you so.”  No, the Confidential LOVES to say it.  People underestimate how hard it is to win on the road.  With the vultures circling the Eagles, they pulled the upset.  Don’t look now, but BC has more conference wins that 13 of its AQ conference brethren.  Meanwhile, NC State falls back to 5-5.  As is the case with a lot of programs, making the leap requires a team to win the games that it is “supposed to win.”  Confidential Record: 5-1.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
12 Nov 2011

And here comes HOOPS!

The 2011-2012 basketball season is officially underway and the ACC is off to a good start.

North Carolina shook of a slow start against Michigan State and took step one towards what everyone expects to be a Final Four appearance.  In the (sorta) inaugural Carrier Classic, the Tarheels defeated the game Michigan State Spartans, 67-55.  With the national spotlight, including a Super Bowl-esque pregame show featuring President Barack Obama, North Carolina did what it was supposed to do.  And you can never take a Tom Izzo coached team lightly.  As usual, the Spartans worked hard on the boards and defensive end.  All in all, a huge win for North Carolina.  They look like they are prepared to live up to the hype.

At the other end of the spectrum, Duke barely defeated Belmont at home, winning 76-77.  Belmont is always one of those teams that you are tempted to pick in March to pull an upset.  Looks like we’ll be seeing them in that spot again this year.  If you watched the game, you know that the dagger was a long three pointer by Andre Dawkins to give Duke a 75-71 edge.  With the shot clock winding down, to make it a 2-possession game with 20 seconds to go is huge.  While it makes you wonder whether Duke is top 10 material at this point, the bottom line is that they won.

And the rest of the ACC held serve as Florida State, North Carolina State, Clemson, Wake Forest, Miami, and Georgia Tech all won.  Even future Big East member Pittsburgh won.

You cannot ask for anything more than 9-0.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
11 Nov 2011

More ACC Basketball Predictions…

ESPN has now released more predictions for the 2011-2012.  Their 15 experts have predicted the major conference champions, the players of the year, the final four teams, and the final game result.

Here is what is noteworthy for the ACC:

  • All 15 experts prediction North Carolina to win the ACC
  • 6 experts predict Syracuse to win the Big East, while 2 pick Pitt to win.  Go future ACC schools!
  • 3 experts predict Harrison Barnes to be the POY.
  • All 15 experts predict that North Carolina will in the final four.
  • No expert predicts Duke or any other current ACC team in the final four.
  • 3  experts pick Syracuse to be in the final four, while 2 experts (different) predict Pitt.
  • Only two experts envision a Championship game without North Carolina.
  • Three more predict that North Carolina will lose the Championship game.
  • The remaining 10 predict that North Carolina will be cutting down the nets.

The pressure is on UNC this year.  Gotta figure that anything short of a title will be seen as a failure with THIS much love.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
10 Nov 2011

ACC Football Predictions: November 12, 2011

Here are The Confidential’s football predictions for games featuring current ACC teams:

Florida St. (6-3) hosting Miami (5-4)

With all the history, it is hard to believe that this is an afterthought game this week.   In any event, who has any idea what Miami is?  They lost to terrible Maryland, but their others losses are to 3 teams with a combined record of 21-6.  Meanwhile, the wins over Ohio State and Georgia Tech are certainly decent.  Florida State is a bit easier to figure out, with losses to Oklahoma, Clemson, and Wake Forest.  However, Florida State’s wins are over a sorry lot of teams.  While Florida State is at home, The Confidential meekly predicts a Miami upset.   Miami 27-Florida St. 20.

Clemson (8-1) hosting Wake Forest (5-4)

Clemson’s home victories include Auburn, Florida State, and North Carolina.  Wake Forest’s road wins were against Duke and Boston College.  We like what Wake has done this year, but just do not see Clemson losing two in a row.  Clemson 35-Wake Forest 21.

Georgia Tech (7-2)  hosting Virginia Tech (8-1)

Fresh off a win over Clemson, hosting Virginia Tech is Georgia Tech’s opportunity to start chasing Clemson in the standings.  Before Clemson, Georgia Tech did not have a very impressive win.  The most impressive was likely North Carolina.  Virginia Tech took care of Wake Forest on the road and Miami at home.  In this instance, there is something about giving Frank Beamer all this time to prepare for Georgia Tech.  The unique offenses are vulnerable with extra time to prepare.  Virginia Tech 24- Georgia Tech 21.

Maryland (2-7) “hosting” Notre Dame (6-3)

Notre Dame has lost to Tulsa in recent years.  Nothing is off the table.  But Maryland has shown absolutely no sign of life recently.  The team peaked in Week 1 against Miami.  Not a good sign.  Meanwhile, Notre Dame has caused itself to lose in each of its three losses.  If they can protect the football, they win going away.  They likely will.  Notre Dame 35-Maryland 16.

Virginia (6-3) hosting Duke (3-6)

Duke has some mojo.  They have looked very good at times this year.  Of course, they also lost to Richmond.  Virginia’s head coach Mike London knows all about Richmond, going 24-5 there in two seasons.  If he can win this game, he will have his FBS record up to .500.  Virginia is looking good and at home.  They should win.  Virginia 33-Duke 21.

Boston College (2-7) hosting North Carolina St. (5-4)

The Tom O’Brien Bowl.  This one has the feel of an upset.  Boston College cannot be THIS bad.  North Carolina State is coming off a huge win over its rival.  If we have seen one thing this year, it is that momentum is fleeting.  The Eagles get the upset.  Boston College 21-North Carolina State 20.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
09 Nov 2011

Harrison Barnes, Consensus Pre-Season All-American

The basketball elite at ESPN have made their votes and Harrison Barnes of North Carolina was deemed a consensus Preseason All-American.  All fifteen voters agreed that Barnes should be a first-team All-American.  Three of the fifteen even voted him as the Preseason Player of the Year.

It should also be noted that a few other ACC players received some recognition too.  Barnes’ teammate, Tyler Zeller, was named to the second-team on several ballots.  Two more Tarheels, Kendall Marshall and John Henson, appeared on a second-team ballots as well.  It is easy to see why North Carolina is a consensus preseason #1.

No other current ACC team placed any players on the list.  Instead, it was the North Carolina show.

But in terms of future ACC members, Syracuse and Pitt were represented.  Kris Joseph (Syracuse) and Ashton Gibbs (Pitt) each appeared in several ballots.  Joe Lunardi even placed Gibbs on his preseason first-team.

Congrats to all of these players.  Let’s hope that they all stay healthy and have the opportunity to prove the voters right in providing these accolades.  The pressure is on to live up to the hype.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
08 Nov 2011
1 Comment

The (New) Carrier Classic!

Syracuse fans will recall that they used to host a Carrier Classic in the–yep, you guessed it–Carrier Dome.  But, alas, that Carrier Classic withered away.  Not sure what is going on with the intellectual property rights, but there is going to be a Carrier Classic this Friday and it has nothing to do with the Orange.

This new Carrier Classic will be a tribute to Veterans Day and take place on an actual aircraft carrier, the USS Carl Vinson.  The game will feature North Carolina and Michigan State, two perennially elite teams.  This game will be attended by many military personnel, up to and including the Commander-in-Chief President Barack Obama.  This, of course, rarely happens.

Also, only a limited number of fans from each school will be present. We will not see many rowdy college students with painted faces.  We will not see the Izzone.  This will not be the Dean Dome.  This will be a very odd basketball game in the sense that few fans will be watching live as these two teams play.

Of course, that is not the most of it.  The game will be outdoors!  This never happens.  Name the last outdoor college basketball game.  See what I mean?  And if you can even find one, I bet it was not on a boat.   So this is historical.

There is even a contingency in case of rain in San Diego.  This carrier is equipped to allow the game to be moved downstairs.  And, amazingly, the contingency plan is looking like a good idea given the forecast.

It gets better… North Carolina is, of course, the preseason #1 team.  While Michigan State is not ranked, you rarely see Tom Izzo get outcoached.  His teams are rarely out hustled.  A win by the Spartans would be a great way to start out the season, so you can guarantee that they will be amped up.

Of course, North Carolina has a few NBA players loitering on campus because there is no point in going “pro” if the “pros” are not even playing.  Tarheel fans can thank the NBA greed for the surplus of talent on campus this year.  The road to the Final Four begins on Friday for these returning players.

If you like college basketball, you’ll want to watch the (New) Carrier Classic.

 

Posted by acaffrey in Baseball and tagged , , ,

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