The Confidential

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Archive for the tag “preview”

28 Jan 2012

Weekend Preview: January 28-29

As is often the case this time of year, there are a number of ACC games this weekend in college basketball.

Saturday

In a rather late out-of-conference game, #8 Duke hosts St. John’s at noon. This is not the St. John’s team from last year that made the Big Dance.  At 9-11, the only March dancing the Red Storm will be doing is if they get a WII and Dance Dance Revolution.  But let’s hope Coach Lavin’s recovery continues unabated.  He did a great job with that team last year.

In another noon game, Wake Forest travels to Clemson in the “Battle to Avoid 10th Loss” Bowl.   Wake Forest is 11-9, while Clemson is 10-9.

#3 Syracuse takes the Carrier Dome floor at 1pm to play West Virginia.  The Orange will likely have to play against without Center Fab Melo.  So far, they are 1-1 without the super-Sophomore.  West Virginia usually shoots well in the Dome.

At 2:30 pm,  Maryland hosts Virginia Tech.  The 12-8 Hokies are desperate for a win just to get back on the bubble.  Meanwhile, at 12-7, Maryland has to be careful.  After a nice December stretch, January has been less successful with a 2-3 conference record.  Both teams desperately need a win.

Pittsburgh looks to make it two straight wins when it hosts #9 Georgetown at 4pm.  Despite losing 8 straight games, the Panthers are still sitting at 12-9 overall.

At 8:00 pm, North Carolina State hosts #19 Virginia.  At 16-3, the Wahoos are looking to get a quality conference road win.  North Carolina State, however, needs to rebound from its ugly loss to the Tar Heels.  And the Wolfpack need to defend home court.

 

Sunday

At 1pm, Boston College hosts Miami.  At 11-7, the Hurricanes need to start stringing some wins together.  A road win over 7-13 Boston College is a necessity.

The 6pm game on Sunday features Georgia Tech visiting #7 North Carolina.  The Tar Heels are looking to make it two comfortable home wins in a row.  In fact, they have yet to lose at home all year.  And, while the Florida State loss still lingers, North Carolina has won 11 of their last 12 games.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , ,
20 Jan 2012

Weekend Preview: January 21-22

As is often the case this time of year, there are a number of ACC games this weekend in college basketball.

Saturday

In an unusual 11:00 a.m. start, Maryland will ride its relative hot streak into Temple for an out-of-conference game.  Both teams are 12-5.  As Maryland seeks to overcome its 3-3 start by getting itself onto the bubble, a road victory over a decent Temple team would do the trick.

At noon, Wake Forest will look to rebound from its loss to Duke when it travels to Boston College.  Wake Forest is 10-8 and Boston College is 7-11.  However, Wake has lost 4 of its last 5 games.  Boston College is a surprising 2-2 in ACC play after a 5-9 start to the season.

In the battle for 10th place in the conference standings, Georgia Tech heads to Clemson for a 2:30 pm matchup.  Clemson is looking to stay above .500 with a win, while Georgie Tech is looking to get within striking distance of .500.

In the premier matchup of the day, Florida State will try to work its Saturday magic for a second week in a row–this week at #4 Duke.  Last week, Florida State demolished North Carolina at home.  As impressive as last week was, if Florida State can upset Duke, this week will be even more impressive.  Tipoff is at 4:00 pm.

#1 Syracuse will take its 20-0 record into Notre Dame on Saturday at 6:00 pm.  Notre Dame always plays Syracuse tough at home, as they usually have the outside shooters to give the 2-3 zone fits.

At 9:00 pm, Pittsburgh tries to stop the bleeding when it hosts #23 Louisville.  After starting 11-1, the Panthers have lost seven in a row.  Louisville has its own bleeding problems.  After starting 12-0, Louisville has lost 5 of 7 games.  One of these teams will get back on track in a big way tomorrow.

 

Sunday

North Carolina State looks to make it three wins in a row as they take on Miami.  The host Hurricanes are a disappointing 10-6 so far, but they have the talent to beat the Wolfpack.  Both teams need momentum, as North Carolina State would like to crack the top 25 and Miami would like to make a run for the Big Dance.  Game time is noon.

At 6:00 pm, Virginia Tech heads to #15 Virginia in a matchup of bitter rivals.  Before the season, one would have thought that the Hokies would have been the ranked team, if any.  At this point, they are just looking for the first conference win.  The Cavs are 2-1 in conference so far.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , ,
11 Jan 2012

First 2012 Football Rankings….

With the 2011 college football season ending about 24 hours ago, a few national writers decided to waste little time in making 2012 football rankings.  Here is a summary of how the ACC fared in those early rankings.

CBS’s Brett McMurphy provided his rankings.  The top 5 were LSU, USC, Georgia, Alabama, and Oregon.  In terms of ACC schools, here is McMurphy’s rankings and analysis:

13. Clemson: No, West Virginia did not just score again. Well, maybe they did. The Tigers were the laughingstocks of the bowl season after losing 70-33 in the Orange Bowl. This year, Clemson should be in good position to make a run as repeating as ACC champions. QB Tajh Boyd, big-play WR Sammy Watkins and RB Andre Ellington are among seven offensive returning starters. TE Dwayne Allen left early for the NFL Draft. Defensively, seven starters are back — which depending your view of the Orange Bowl performance — might or might not be a good thing. Clemson faces a pair of SEC teams (Auburn and South Carolina) in nonconference play, while the Tigers’ biggest potential pitfalls in ACC play are home against Virginia Tech and at Florida State.

15. Florida State: Based on returning talent, Florida State should probably be ranked much higher, but I’m hesitant to put the Seminoles higher after last season when FSU was arguably the nation’s most disappointing team. A top five preseason team, the Seminoles failed to even win the ACC Atlantic Division. Injuries played a part. This season the Seminoles have nine returning starters each on offense and defense. The key will be the effectiveness of QB EJ Manuel and playmakers Chris Thompson and Rashad Greene. The Seminoles’ defense, which led the ACC and ranked fourth nationally, could be even better, especially with DE Brandon Jenkins and CB Greg Reid opting to return for their senior seasons. Florida State’s toughest road trip will be to Virginia Tech, while the Seminoles get West Virginia, Florida and Clemson in Tallahassee.

19. Virginia Tech: Last year, Virginia Tech limited eight opponents to 17 points or less and the Hokies return virtually everyone from that unit, including DEs James Gayle and J.R. Collins, LBs Tariq Edwards and Jack Tyler and CB Kyle Fuller. The Hokies also get back LBs Bruce Taylor and Jeron Gouveia-Winslow and DT Antoine Hopkins, who missed all or part of last season because of injuries. RB David Wilson’s departure is a blow, but QB Logan Thomas continues to get better. The nonconference schedule is tougher than last season, featuring a pair of Big East teams (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati), while the Hokies toughest ACC tests will be home against Florida State and at Clemson.

He also “considered” Georgia Tech.

Not to be outdone, ESPN’s Mark Schlabach did a top 25 as well.  The top 5 were LSU, USC, Alabama, Oregon, and Oklahoma.  In terms of ACC schools, here is Schlabach’s rankings and analysis:

8. Florida State Seminoles:
We’re taking the bait on the Seminoles again, even after they failed to live up to very high aspirations with a 9-4 finish in 2011. But FSU’s lofty preseason billing might have been a year premature, and injuries plagued the Seminoles throughout the season. FSU’s defense is as good as advertised and it might be even better in 2012 with nine starters coming back. Defensive end Brandon Jenkins and cornerback Greg Reid both passed up entering the NFL draft to return to school. If FSU is going to become a legitimate BCS contender, though, its offense has to be better and more explosive. The Seminoles had young skill players in 2011 and they started four freshman offensive linemen against Notre Dame in the Champs Sports Bowl. Another concern will be replacing All-American punter Shawn Powell. FSU plays seven home games, but it will travel to Virginia Tech during ACC play.

18. Virginia Tech Hokies: If there’s one thing you can count on every season, it’s that Virginia Tech will win at least 10 games and be in contention in the ACC title race. With a new quarterback and revamped defense, the Hokies went 11-3 in 2011. Virginia Tech will have to rebuild its offense to do it again in 2012. Quarterback Logan Thomas will be back for his second season as a starter, but the Hokies won’t have record-setting tailback David Wilson, who is leaving for the NFL draft as a junior. They’re also losing four starting offensive linemen and top receivers Jarrett Boykin and Danny Coale. The good news is that as many as nine starters might be back on defense — if junior cornerback Jayron Hosley comes back. The Hokies play nonconference games at Pittsburgh and against Cincinnati at FedEx Field in Landover, Md., and they play ACC road games at Miami, North Carolina and Clemson.

22. Clemson Tigers: Tigers coach Dabo Swinney can only hope his team uses its embarrassing loss in the Orange Bowl as motivation in the offseason. Clemson won an ACC title and started 8-0, but a 2-4 slump down the stretch left some serious concerns. Quarterback Tajh Boyd should be better in his second season running offensive coordinator Chad Morris’ high-octane attack. Tailback Andre Ellington is considering jumping to the NFL draft, and junior tight end Dwayne Allen has already decided to turn pro. The Tigers also must replace four starting offensive linemen, and there isn’t a lot of depth in the trenches. Five starters must be replaced on defense, including top linebacker Andre Branch. The Tigers will open the season against Auburn in one of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game matchups and will play ACC foes Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech at home.

24. NC State Wolfpack: After a 2-3 start, in which Wolfpack coach Tom O’Brien was criticized for turning quarterback Russell Wilson loose, NC State rallied to win six of its last eight games, including a 31-24 victory over Louisville in the Belk Bowl. Quarterback Mike Glennon ended up being a more-than-capable replacement for Wilson, throwing for 3,054 yards with 31 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. He’ll be without three of his top four receivers in 2012, with wideouts T.J. Graham and Jay Smith and tight end George Bryan each departing. Seven defensive starters are expected back, but the Pack will have to rebuild the defensive line and linebacker corps. The secondary should return intact, including ball-hawking cornerback David Amerson. NC State opens the ’12 season against Tennessee in one of the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game matchups and plays nonconference games against Connecticut (road) and FCS foes South Alabama (home) and The Citadel (home).

Yep, that’s 4 ACC schools in his top 25.  Not too shabby if it comes true.  After all, the ACC ended 2011 with only three ranked schools, none of them in the top 15.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
31 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Final 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the final 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Clemson, Virginia Tech, and future member Pittsburgh.  So far, the Confidential is 3-1, correctly predicting the results on all but the Wake Forest game.

On January 3rd, the Sugar Bowl will feature Virginia Tech (11-2) and Michigan (10-2).  This game will be a battle between the explosive running attack of the Wolverines and the stingy rushing defense of Virginia Tech.  Virginia Tech was able to bottle up Georgia Tech earlier in the year.  However, Michigan was able to move the ball against a good Nebraska defense.  Neither team had an extraordinarily difficult schedule.  The Hokies will be playing without their kicker, which might make a difference if this comes down to a low-scoring game.  Giving the Hokies defense this much time to prepare is the difference.   Prediction: Virginia Tech 21-Michigan 16.

On January 4th, the Orange Bowl will put ACC Champion Clemson (10-3) against Big East Champion West Virginia (9-3). Both of these teams had disappointing seasons for conference champions.  West Virginia certainly wishes it could redo a few of its games, especially the blowout loss to 5-7 Syracuse.  Clemson had that perplexing blowout loss to North Carolina State.  In losing to these teams, both foes showed that they can be shutdown completely.  At the same time, Clemson showed that it could beat tough teams, as demonstrated by wins over Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech.  West Virginia played LSU tough for a spell, but really lacks that quality win.  Prediction: Clemson 35 – West Virginia 27. 

Last, but certainly least, future ACC member Pittsburgh takes its 6-6 record into Birmingham to face 7-5 SMU in the BBVA Compass Bowl.  Pittsburgh has been in a state of coaching flux.  SMU was able to keep June Jones from wandering away.  Maybe Pitt can win this one to stick it to former coach Todd Graham, but the Confidential just does not see it.  Prediction: SMU 24- Pittsburgh 20.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
29 Dec 2011

Bowl Predictions: Middle 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the middle 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, and Virginia.  Not to get cocky, but the Confidential is 2 for 2 so far, having predicted Missouri to defeat North Carolina by 11 (actual margin 17) and North Carolina State to defeat Louisville by 4 (actual margin 7).  While tonight will feature the final game of the first three, it is time to move onto the next three–the games of December 30 and 31.

On December 30, the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (6-6) will travel to Nashville to take on Mississippi State Bulldogs (6-6) in the Music City Bowl.  As the .500 records suggest, neither team does a particularly outstanding job at anything.  Mississippi State is currently favored by 6.5 points, as perhaps the SEC pedigree is dictating Vegas.  After all, their losses were to stud teams LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, South Carolina, and Auburn.  The problem is that their best win was against Louisiana Tech.  In contrast, Wake Forest stumbled to a season-opening loss at Syracuse in overtime (who was 5-2 at one point this year), but otherwise lost only to bowl teams.  And Wake Forest did beat Florida State and North Carolina State.  Edge to Wake Forest.  Prediction: Wake Forest 23-Mississippi State 21.

On December 31, Georgia Tech (8-4) faces off against Utah (7-5) in the Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas.  You know what you are going to get from the Yellow Jackets.  About 300 yards of rushing and maybe 150 yards of passing.  Meanwhile, Utah has been outstanding against the run–giving up only 98 yards per game on the ground.  That is 8th in the nation.  Plus, the Utes will have several weeks to prepare for the Georgia Tech attack–something most teams do not get week-to-week.  But the bigger question is whether Utah can move the ball against Georgia Tech.  If Utah’s defense does what it can do, it will not need to score much to win.  Prediction: Utah 20 – Georgia Tech 14. 

On December 31, the final ACC game during the calendar year 2011 will involve Virginia (8-4) playing Auburn (7-5) in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl in Atlanta, Georgia.  Auburn has had its offensive woes this year as it transitions out of the Cam Newton era.  To be sure, they have to do that in the ever-difficult SEC.  Meanwhile, Virginia was only able to score 14 points in its final two games of the season against Florida State and Virginia Tech.  This has all the makings of a defensive struggle.  Maybe The Confidential is just a little too fond of Mike London.  This may be a case of having the ACC-Goggles on.  Prediction: Virginia 24-Auburn 14.

Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , ,
16 Dec 2011
1 Comment

Bowl Predictions: First 3 ACC bowl games

It’s time for bowl predictions for the first 3 ACC bowl games, which will feature North Carolina, North Carolina State, and Florida State.  Although it will still be a while before the ACC bowl season kicks off, it is still bowl season eve, as a few mid-majors will get things started on Saturday.  Without further adieu, here are the first thee predictions.

On December 26, the North Carolina Tar Heels (7-5) will travel to Shreveport, Louisiana to take on Missouri (7-5).  This will be an interesting game as Missouri will bring the #11 rushing game in FBS into a game against the #14 rushing defense in North Carolina.  Something will have to give there.  If you look deeper at Missouri, you see a team that lost at Arizona State… and then to tough Big XII foes Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, Baylor, and Kansas State.  Not a bad loss there.  Of course, no great wins either.  Similarly, the Tar Heels really did not upset any team all year.  At the same time, all of their losses were to bowl teams.  There is not a lot jumping off the page in terms of distinguishing these teams.  The overall toughness of the Big XII suggests that Missouri will be more battle tested.  Prediction: Missouri 28-North Carolina 17.

On December 27, North Carolina State ambles into Charlotte for its Belk Bowl matchup against Louisville.  Both teams finished 7-5 on the season.  However, Louisville started the season 2-4, only to finish strong with a 5-1 second-half.  This also occurred right around the time that Louisville switched offensive coordinators and Freshman QB Teddy Bridgewater stepped up his game.  Louisville’s defense was very tough all year.  The teams had two common opponents.  Cincinnati beat North Carolina State 44-14, but only beat Louisville 25-16.  On the other hand, North Carolina beat Louisville 14-7, but lost to North Carolina State 13-0.  Charlie Strong has put together an outstanding coaching staff at Louisville and will have several weeks to prepare.  Still, the Confidential thinks that North Carolina State will end up with a de facto home field advantage.  And they were 6-1 at home this year, losing only to Georgia Tech.  Prediction: North Carolina State 24-Louisville 20. 

On December 29, Florida State and Notre Dame will square off in a rematch of some great battles of the 1990’s.  However, these aren’t your older brother’s Notre Dame and Florida State teams.  Both teams head to Orlando with 8-4 records.  Nevertheless, these are two of the so-called “Kings” of college football.  Florida State will present Notre Dame with a very stingy defense that is 6th in the country.  Where Florida State struggles is offense, slotting in the bottom half.  Notre Dame is just outside the top quartile in both of those categories.  This is a very tough game to predict, but Notre Dame’s propensity for turnover implosions seems like the deciding factor here.  Prediction: Florida State 21–Notre Dame 13.

These are three very tough games.  (Already got the excuses ready).  Feel free to share your agreement or disagreement.  Just do so before the game ends…

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , , , , , ,
25 Nov 2011

A Lot of ACC Hoops Today…

If you are an ACC fan, you are likely a basketball fan, which makes today a GREAT day for you.  There are games all day, from 2:30 pm to 10:00 p.m.

The early games:

  • Virginia Tech plays Oklahoma State in the consolation game of the NIT Preseason Tipoff.  Oklahoma State did not show up in its matchup against Stanford; however, Virginia Tech played quite well against Syracuse before ultimately falling.  This would be a huge statement game for Virginia Tech.  2:30 p.m.
  • Miami at Mississippi.  Miami is 4-0 on the year.  A win at Mississippi would add a good road loss to the resume.  4:00 p.m.
  • Harvard at Florida State.  Both teams are undefeated.  Tommy Amaker has some great recruiting classes coming in, but they are not there yet.  Still, this is a game that Harvard will really need if it is on the bubble again this year.  Florida State will need to bring its A game to hold them off.   4:30 p.m.
  • Cal-Riverside at Boston College.  Boston College has been terrible this year.  One of these 1-3 teams will get to 2-3.  If it’s not Boston College…who will this team ever be able to beat?  5:00 p.m.
  • FEATURED GAME:  Future ACC member Syracuse puts its 5-0 record on the line against Stanford, who is also 5-0.  This game is for the championship of the NIT Preseason Tipoff.  For Syracuse, playing in Madison Square Garden is nothing new.  For Stanford, they destroyed Oklahoma State there on Wednesday and certainly would love a long plane ride home with the trophy.  Tipoff is at 5:00 p.m.

The 7:00 p.m. games:

  • Future ACC member Pittsburgh travels to Philadelphia to play Penn at the Palestra.  Pitt was a preseason top 10 team and cannot afford to lose another OOC game.  Penn always comes to play against big time opponents.
  • Elon at North Carolina State.  Fresh off a nice win over Texas, North Carolina State needs to take care of business here and get to 5-1.
  • Furman at Clemson.  Furman has the better record right now.  Think about that for a moment.  All games of this ilk are must-wins for the home team.  This one certainly qualifies for a disappointing Clemson team.
  • Florida Gulf Coast at Maryland.  Maryland has been awful this year.  They need to rebound from their 26-point loss to Iona by beating an overmatched, 2-3 team.  If not?  Shudder.
  • Green Bay at Virginia.  The Packers look outstanding in beating the Lions yesterday.  Wait, what?  At 4-1, Virginia needs to keep beating the beatable opponents.  Wisconsin-Green Bay certainly qualifies.
  • FEATURED GAME:  Wake Forest vs. Arizona State in the Old Spice Invitational.  Although Arizona State is only 1-3, this is the sole evening matchup between two major schools.  These two teams play in the consolidation game, while Dayton-Fairfield play for the Championship.  Who saw that coming?  Yes… this is a featured game by default.

The late game:

  • North Carolina vs. South Carolina in the Las Vegas Invitational.  Some decent names in this tournament, including USC and UNLV.  But nothing that this North Carolina team is expected to lose to.  The expectations are THAT high for this team.  Anything short of a 20-point win and there will be whispers.  This is the negative part about being #1, of course.  Game starts at 10:00 p.m. EST, give or take.

What a day… all these basketball games, with ample football sprinkled in too.  Enjoy!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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