The Confidential

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05 Dec 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  With only bowl games remaining, here is how we view the ACC football schools as of December 5, 2011:

1.  Clemson–At 10-3, the Tigers lost more games than Va Tech, but beat the Hokies soundly.  Twice.  Without hosting them in either game.

2. Virginia Tech–at 11-2, Virginia Tech need not be ashamed of its season.  A Sugar Bowl bid as an at-large BCS team now awaits.

3. Virginia–of the three 8-4 teams, Virginia beat both of them.

4. Georgia Tech–at 8-4, the Yellow Jackets’ losses were to teams with a combined record of 35-13.

5. Florida State–at 8-4, the Seminoles losses were to teams with a combined record of 32-16.

6. North Carolina State–North Carolina State gets the edge here for beating North Carolina.

7. North Carolina–same 7-5 record as NC State, who shutout the Tar Heels.

8. Wake Forest–the same 6-6 record as Miami, but Wake Forest gets the edge here.  Wake Forest’s season was bookended by losses to Syracuse and Vanderbilt.

9. Miami–the same 6-6 record as Miami.  Too bad Miami’s season was sandwiched between losses to Maryland and Boston College.

10.  Pittsburgh–the win over Syracuse to get to 6-6 gives them the easy edge.

11.  Syracuse–second-half of season collapse drops them from 5-2 to 5-7 and outside the bowl picture.

12.  Boston College–rallied at the end.

13. Duke–made some strides

14. Maryland–the less said, the better.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
04 Dec 2011

Clemson Wins ACC Championship, BCS Bound

Although they struggled down the stretch, the Clemson Tigers were able to wallop the Virginia Tech Hokies in the ACC Conference Championship Game, 38-10, to win the league’s BCS spot.  With the win, Clemson improves to 10-3 and will likely play West Virginia (9-3) in the Orange Bowl.

The amazing thing about this game is that there was no reason to think that Clemson would win.  Virginia Tech came into the game rolling, while Clemson was reeling.  After 30 minutes, the game was tied at 10.  That was the tempo that favored Virginia Tech. But Clemson exploded in the second-half, outscoring Virginia Tech 28-0.

On the one hand, this result is disappointing for the ACC because its BCS representative could have been a 12-1, top 5, Virginia Tech.  On the other hand, it is decent for the ACC to get some new blood into the championship mix.  Clemson will be well-supported in Miami for the Orange Bowl.  Clemson and West Virginia should be similarly ranked going into the game.  These are two football programs that support their team well and deserve a chance at some January attention.  It should be a great game too.

For Virginia Tech, they were 11-0 when not playing Clemson and 0-2 when playing the Tigers.  They had two chances to beat them–once at home and once at a neutral location–and failed to do so.  Clemson played a much tougher schedule.  While the overall records suggest otherwise, Clemson appears to be the better team.

The future is certainly bright for the Hokies.  Quarterback Logan Thomas is only a sophomore.  While the Hokies may lose Junior RB David Wilson, the ACC Player of the Year, he was certainly bottled up by Clemson in what was easily his worst game of the season.   He was held to 32 yards rushing and a mere 2.9 yards per carry.

Meanwhile, the Clemson offensive trio of Tajh Boyd, Andre Ellington, and Sammy Watkins rose to the occasion.  Each scored a touchdown in the second-half.  Overall, Boyd passed for three touchdowns and ran for one.  Ellington and Watkins rushed for 180 yards, providing Clemson the offensive balance.  And Clemson’s defense was outstanding all game long.

If only Clemson had taken care of business against NC State.  The ACC’s best teams need to improve on “holding serve.”  LSU and Alabama will likely play for the National Championship because they did not lose to teams that they were not supposed to lose to.  The ACC needs a team to step up to the plate in like fashion.  Ideally, the ACC would have a top 10 team representing itself in a BCS bowl.

But, for 2011-2012, credit Clemson for doing what it needed to do to earn the ACC’s BCS spot.  There is no question that they deserve to be there.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Game Review and tagged , , , , ,
02 Dec 2011

ACC Football Predictions for December 3, 2011

Here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

ACC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME: Virginia Tech (11-1) v Clemson (9-3)

There is no compelling reason to pick Clemson here.  After clinching the spot in this game, Clemson has gone on cruise control–only to be destroyed by a mediocre North Carolina State and handled by a decent, but not great, South Carolina team.  Granted, Clemson beat Virginia Tech on the road.  But that was a long time ago.  Since then, Virginia Tech has been rolling, while Clemson has been struggling.  Even Clemson’s wins down the stretch were of a questionable ilk.  In contrast, Virginia Tech dominated Virginia.  There are playmakers for both teams, but Virginia Tech’s just have that much more oomph, including ACC Player of the Year David Wilson.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 27- Clemson 20.

BONUS GAME: Future ACC Member Syracuse (5-6) at Future ACC Member Pittsburgh (5-6):

Major bowl implications here.  And, by major, I mean that the winner becomes bowl eligible and might get selected to a bowl game that is played next Wednesday or something.  For the Big East, it is just pleasing that this is not their Championship Game.  No 6-6 team will ever get a BCS bid out of the Big East.  7-5?  Possible.  Stay tuned for Louisville.  Anyway, both of these teams are limping right now… Syracuse more so than Pittsburgh.  Both teams have demonstrated anemic offenses, despite seasoned quarterbacks.  Smart money says to go with Pittsburgh in a low scoring affair.  Therefore, the prediction is Syracuse 33-Pittsburgh 30.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.   Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
01 Dec 2011

De Ja Vu: ACC Fairs Poorly in Day Two of the ACC/Big 10 Challenge

The ACC started slow in the ACC/Big 10 Challenge and finished slow, allowing the Big 10 to win 8 out of the 12 games.  This is shaping up as one of those years where the Big 10 is quite strong and the ACC is subpar.

Of course, the ACC does get to claim a victory in the biggest matchup of the night–#9 Wisconsin at #5 North Carolina.  In a 60-57 score more befitting of a MAC football game than an ACC basketball game, Wisconsin was able to control the tempo but not the final scoreboard.  But even this win was not overly impressive for the ACC, given the large margin by which Ohio State beat Duke.  At least North Carolina was able to rebound from its loss to UNLV over the weekend and improve to 6-1.

The other ACC win came from Wake Forest, who improved to 5-2 by beating Nebraska.  The 55-53 slugfest gives Wake Forest a nice road win.

The rest of the ACC lost.  In a bit of a surprise, Indiana showed that it is a legitimate 7-0 team by beating NC State on the road, 86-75.  Tom Crean may finally be turning things around in Hoosier-land.  The Wolfpack fell to 5-2 with the loss.

Virginia Tech also fell to 5-2, losing a road game to Minnesota, 58-55.  Minnesota is another team off to a great start at 7-1.  It seems like the entire Big Ten is off to a really good start.

Michigan State is one team that did not get off to a good start this year, losing to North Carolina and Duke.  However, the Spartans have responded with 5 straight wins, including a 65-49 victory against overmatched Florida State.  With the loss, the Seminoles drop to 5-3.

And, in a result that should surprise absolutely no one, hapless Boston College lost to Penn State, at home, 62-54.  Even the Nittany Lions are 6-2.  Boston College dropped to 2-5.

With all precincts reporting, the results are in.  The Big 10 walloped the ACC, 8-4.  Not to beat a dead horse, but the Big 10 is starting out much like the Big East did last year.  They have four undefeated teams (Ohio State, Indiana, Illinois, and Northwestern).  In addition, they have two 7-1 teams in Minnesota and Purdue.  Meanwhile, three teams that expect to be in the Big Dance lag behind those schools, with Wisconsin at 6-1 and Michigan/Michigan State both at 6-2.  Only Iowa, at 4-3, is not 2 games above .500 in the Big 10.

In contrast, the ACC has no undefeated schools.  Duke, North Carolina, and Virginia have one loss apiece.  The ACC does have 6 more schools that are at least two games above .500.  Unfortunately, the head-to-head matchups with the major conferences are suggesting that this is going to be a down year for the ACC overall.  The good news is that Duke will likely rebound and North Carolina will be making news all season long.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , , , , ,
29 Nov 2011

Updated ACC Bowl Projections

With the 2011 football season coming to a close, the time is ripe to predict where the various ACC teams are headed for bowl purposes.  Here are The Confidential’s projections as of November 29, 2011:

ACC #1 goes to the Orange Bowl (BCS)-Miami, Florida to face another BCS team on January 4, 2012.

Last Year’s Matchup: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. West Virginia. 

Explanation: Clemson is reeling.  Meanwhile, the odds are that Cincy will beat UConn, WVU will beat USF, and the voters will like West Virginia. 


ACC #2 goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta, Georgia to face the SEC #5 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Clemson vs. Auburn.   

ACC #3 goes to the Champ Sports Bowl-Orlando, Florida to face Big East #2 on December 29, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Florida State v Notre Dame (eligible to take Big East spot here once every four years)

ACC #4 goes to the Sun Bowl- El Paso, Texas to face Pac-12 #4 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia v Utah.

ACC #5 goes to the Belk Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina to face Big East #3 on December 27, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: South Florida 31, Clemson 26

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Georgia Tech v Louisville.

ACC #6 goes to the Music City Bowl-Nashville, Tennessee to face SEC #7 on December 30, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina v Florida

ACC #7 goes to the Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana to face MWC #3 on December 26, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Wake Forest v San Diego State

ACC #8 goes to the Military Bowl-Washington, DC, to face Navy on December 28, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina State v Cincinnati (Navy fails to qualify)

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Nov 2011

ACC Basketball Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC basketball schools as of November 28, 2011:

1.  Syracuse–Not going to penalize Syracuse for beating everyone on its schedule.  6-0 is 6-0.  Va Tech and Stanford are good wins too.

Next big test: Florida on December 2.

2. Duke–At 7-0, and with more impressive wins that Syracuse, Duke could be #1.  But both teams are just holding North Carolina’s spot right now.   Duke did great in Maui though.

Next big test: Ohio State on November 29.

3. North Carolina–At 5-1, North Carolina gets a huge benefit of the doubt here after that loss to UNLV.  2 huge tests coming up–we’ll know a lot more soon enough.

Next big test: Wisconsin on November 30.

4. Virginia Tech–At 5-1, the Hokies looked very good in losing to Syracuse and beating Oklahoma State.

Next bit test:  Minnesota on November 30.

5. North Carolina State–At 5-1, North Carolina State is off to a real good start.  The win over Texas was nice.

Next big test: Indiana on November 30.

6. Pittsburgh–At 5-1, the Panthers are still reeling from the loss to Long Beach State.  Winning, but not entirely impressively.

Next big test: Tennessee on December 3.

7. Virginia–At 5-1, the Cavaliers still have no quality wins.  And that bad loss to TCU lingers.

Next big test: Michigan on November 30.

8.  Miami–At 4-1, the loss to Mississippi is not the worst loss ever.  A good team gets the win there.

Next big test: Purdue on November 29.

9.  Florida State– At 5-2, hit a rough spot with losses to Harvard and UConn.  Two very good teams, but two losses nevertheless.

Next big test: Michigan State on November 30.

10. Wake Forest– At 4-2, the Demon Deacons have two decent losses, but got a nice win over Texas Tech to give them the edge of Georgia Tech here.

Next big test: Nebraska on November 30.

11. Georgia Tech–at 4-2, Georgia Tech needs a good win soon.

12. Clemson–at 3-2, with closer losses, Clemson gets the nod here.

13. Maryland–at 3-2, same record as Clemson, but barely beat Florida Gulf Coast and some horrible losses.

14. Boston College--at 2-4.  Nowhere to go but up.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
28 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 28, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 28, 2011:

1.  Virginia Tech–at 11-1, Virginia Tech head into the ACC Championship Game on the highest of highs.

2. Clemson–after losing two straight, Clemson limps into the ACC Championship Game at 9-3.

3. Virginia–of the three 8-4 teams, Virginia beat both of them.  The loss to the Hokies was a major disappointment, but they get the nod here.

4. Georgia Tech–at 8-4, the Yellow Jackets’ losses were to teams with a combined record of 35-13.

5. Florida State–at 8-4, the Seminoles losses were to teams with a combined record of 32-16.

6. North Carolina State–the loss to Boston College remains disappointing, but North Carolina State gets the edge here for beating North Carolina.

7. North Carolina–same 7-5 record as NC State, who shutout the Tar Heels.

8. Wake Forest–the same 6-6 record as Miami, but Wake Forest gets the edge here.  Wake Forest’s season was bookended by losses to Syracuse and Vanderbilt.

9. Miami–the same 6-6 record as Miami.  Too bad Miami’s season was sandwiched between losses to Maryland and Boston College.

10.  Pittsburgh–second-half collapse against West Virginia leaves Pitt at 5-6, with a game against Syracuse to decide who gets bowl eligibility.

11.  Syracuse–second-half of season collapse continued with a drubbing by wounded Cincinnati.  Still can get to bowl eligibility with a win over Pitt.

12.  Boston College–the win over Miami gives the Eagles three conference wins.  That has to mean something.

13. Duke–the best 3-9 team in the country?  We’ll leave that for someone else to figure out.

14. Maryland–the Randy Edsall era is not exactly off to a great start.  Like Rich Rodriguez, one wonders if it is possible to fix.  If you are brought in to take your team to the next level, dropping down three levels is a poor way to start.

Do you agree with these rankings?  If not, let us know.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
27 Nov 2011

Review of ACC Football Predictions, November 27, 2011

After a 4-3 week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Miami (6-5) hosting Boston College (3-8)

Prediction: Miami 17-Boston College 10.

Result: Boston College 24, Miami 17.  The Confidential got the Miami score right, but missed entirely on whether Boston College would show up for this game.  The Eagles’ defense certainly did, forcing 4 turnovers and returning an interception for a touchdown.  0-1.

Georgia Tech (8-3) hosting Georgia (9-2)

Prediction: Georgia 33-Georgia Tech 24.

Result: Georgia 31, Georgia Tech 17.  This Georgia team has only lost to South Carolina and Boise St.  While they avoided all the big boys of the SEC West, Georgia Tech was no match for the Bulldogs.  That being said, Georgia has its hands full against LSU.  Good luck with that.  1-1.

North Carolina (6-5) hosting Duke (3-8)

Prediction: North Carolina 21-Duke 14.

Result: North Carolina 37, Duke 21.  Pretty much according to plan here.  North Carolina’s scoring output was a bit of a surprise, but Duke is much better at home.  2-1.

North Carolina State (6-5) hosting Maryland (2-9)

Prediction: NC State 28-Maryland 13.

Result: NC State 56, Maryland 41.  Credit Maryland for jumping out to a 41-14 lead.  Credit NC State for scoring the last 42 points.  Maryland’s disappointing season ends in a most disappointing way.  NC State shows a lot of heart here.  The Wolfpack even saw to it that The Confidential’s prediction margin of victory hold true!   3-1.

Wake Forest (6-5) hosting Vanderbilt (5-6)

Wake Forest 28-Vandy 24.

Result: Vandy 41, Wake Forest 7.  Wow.  This was a surprise.  Chalk one up for the SEC.  3-2.

Florida (6-5) hosting Florida State (7-4)

Prediction: Florida State 27-Florida 23.  

Result: Florida State 21, Florida 7.  Nice work by Jimbo Fisher and crew to end the regular season on a high note.  At the same time, it is shocking how far the Gators have fallen.  All that talent and a 6-6 record?   4-2.

South Carolina (9-2) hosting Clemson (9-2)

Prediction: Clemson 26-South Carolina 20.

South Carolina 34, Clemson 13.  Well, so much for Clemson ending on a high note.  Being blown out in their last two games is a nice shiv in the side to the ACC.  Clemson drops to 9-3 and takes a lot of the luster out of the ACC Championship Game.  4-3.

GAME OF THE WEEK

Virginia (8-3) hosting Virginia Tech (10-1). 

Prediction: Virginia Tech 24-Virginia 14.

Result: Virginia Tech 38, Virginia 0.  Credit Mike London for getting Virginia to 8 wins.  But this is just a reminder of how far Virginia has to go to best its rival.  Virginia Tech is rolling now.  Hokies fans are certainly wondering how it is that Clemson is the reason why they are not undefeated.  But they get their opportunity for some revenge this week in the ACC Championship game.  5-3.

 


Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
25 Nov 2011

A Lot of ACC Hoops Today…

If you are an ACC fan, you are likely a basketball fan, which makes today a GREAT day for you.  There are games all day, from 2:30 pm to 10:00 p.m.

The early games:

  • Virginia Tech plays Oklahoma State in the consolation game of the NIT Preseason Tipoff.  Oklahoma State did not show up in its matchup against Stanford; however, Virginia Tech played quite well against Syracuse before ultimately falling.  This would be a huge statement game for Virginia Tech.  2:30 p.m.
  • Miami at Mississippi.  Miami is 4-0 on the year.  A win at Mississippi would add a good road loss to the resume.  4:00 p.m.
  • Harvard at Florida State.  Both teams are undefeated.  Tommy Amaker has some great recruiting classes coming in, but they are not there yet.  Still, this is a game that Harvard will really need if it is on the bubble again this year.  Florida State will need to bring its A game to hold them off.   4:30 p.m.
  • Cal-Riverside at Boston College.  Boston College has been terrible this year.  One of these 1-3 teams will get to 2-3.  If it’s not Boston College…who will this team ever be able to beat?  5:00 p.m.
  • FEATURED GAME:  Future ACC member Syracuse puts its 5-0 record on the line against Stanford, who is also 5-0.  This game is for the championship of the NIT Preseason Tipoff.  For Syracuse, playing in Madison Square Garden is nothing new.  For Stanford, they destroyed Oklahoma State there on Wednesday and certainly would love a long plane ride home with the trophy.  Tipoff is at 5:00 p.m.

The 7:00 p.m. games:

  • Future ACC member Pittsburgh travels to Philadelphia to play Penn at the Palestra.  Pitt was a preseason top 10 team and cannot afford to lose another OOC game.  Penn always comes to play against big time opponents.
  • Elon at North Carolina State.  Fresh off a nice win over Texas, North Carolina State needs to take care of business here and get to 5-1.
  • Furman at Clemson.  Furman has the better record right now.  Think about that for a moment.  All games of this ilk are must-wins for the home team.  This one certainly qualifies for a disappointing Clemson team.
  • Florida Gulf Coast at Maryland.  Maryland has been awful this year.  They need to rebound from their 26-point loss to Iona by beating an overmatched, 2-3 team.  If not?  Shudder.
  • Green Bay at Virginia.  The Packers look outstanding in beating the Lions yesterday.  Wait, what?  At 4-1, Virginia needs to keep beating the beatable opponents.  Wisconsin-Green Bay certainly qualifies.
  • FEATURED GAME:  Wake Forest vs. Arizona State in the Old Spice Invitational.  Although Arizona State is only 1-3, this is the sole evening matchup between two major schools.  These two teams play in the consolidation game, while Dayton-Fairfield play for the Championship.  Who saw that coming?  Yes… this is a featured game by default.

The late game:

  • North Carolina vs. South Carolina in the Las Vegas Invitational.  Some decent names in this tournament, including USC and UNLV.  But nothing that this North Carolina team is expected to lose to.  The expectations are THAT high for this team.  Anything short of a 20-point win and there will be whispers.  This is the negative part about being #1, of course.  Game starts at 10:00 p.m. EST, give or take.

What a day… all these basketball games, with ample football sprinkled in too.  Enjoy!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
24 Nov 2011

First ACC Game of the Year–Syracuse 69, Virginia Tech 58

OK, not really.  But in a few years this will be an ACC game!  In any event, while it is admirable that Syracuse won (again), it is also impressive that Virginia Tech hung with Syracuse so well.  In fact, Virginia Tech was leading at the half 29-27.  Not many teams are going to hold this Syracuse team to 27 points in any half.  Although Syracuse ultimately pulled out the win 69-58, both teams can take good things from this game.

For Syracuse, the Orange showed that they can win a game where they do not dictate tempo.  Virginia Tech fully intended to slow the game down and, for the most part, succeeded.  Syracuse was averaging 90 points per game, but scored only 69 points overall.  Syracuse showed that they can play tough defense, get the key rebounds, and score without transition baskets.

For Virginia Tech, the Hokies showed that they will be no pushover in the ACC.  They were able to dictate tempo against the more athletic and deeper Syracuse team.  They were only outrebounded by 5.  Syracuse did not get to the free throw line much–as Virginia Tech was able to play tough without fouling.

Ultimately, it was the combination of Syracuse’s defense and Virginia Tech’s turnovers that led to the Syracuse win.  Virginia Tech had 15 turnovers to go along with 15 assists.  Syracuse had an outstanding 17-8 assist to turnover ratio.  Part of what took down Syracuse was self-inflicted mistakes.  So far, 2011-2012 has shown great improvement.

On an individual basis, Virginia Tech has to be pleased that Dorenzo Hudson, Erick Green, and Jerell Eddie rose to the occasion, scoring 44 of the team’s 58 points.  However, the rest of the team contributed little.  Notably, freshman Dorian Finney-Smith never really got on track, scoring only 2 points.  He did lead the team with 7 rebounds.

For Syracuse, the starters contributed a great percentage of points than they had all year.  Kris Joseph and Brandon Triche scored 20 and 18 points, respectively.  Supersubs CJ Fair and Dion Waiters chipped in another 23.  Also impressive was Fab Melo, who looks to be ready to live up to the hype this year.  He had 5 blocked shots.

The Hokies will face Oklahoma State on Friday afternoon in the consolation game.  Syracuse will face Stanford for the Championship of the NIT Season Tipoff.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , ,

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