Maryland is Leaving–What it Means
Unless you were living under a rock today, you heard the news that Maryland is leaving the ACC for the Big 10. Here is the Confidential’s latest take:
1. Congratulations to the Big 10.
The Big 10 now has 14 teams (assuming the Rutgers rumors are accurate). Without a doubt, the Big 10 will use these geographical additions to make its universities the wealthiest in the NCAA on a TV revenue basis. To read Frank the Tank’s commentariat, however, one would think that THIS is the goal of all University athletic programs. So what if Notre Dame or Alabama win the national title in football, the Big 10 schools get $30M/year? Revenue has become a statistic not too unlike home runs in baseball or touchdowns in football. It is a new way of keeping score. And in this new way of keeping score, the Big 10 will dominate.
However, this new way of keeping score is misdirected. Nobody cares that Minnesota brings in more money than Florida. People care that Florida had two national championships in basketball and one in football during the past decade. The counter-argument, of course, is that lacking money prevents a school from being competitive. It is not lack of money that keeps Indiana out of the Rose Bowl and Northwestern out of March Madness. It is not poverty that keeps Ole Miss from going to Sugar Bowls and Auburn from Final Fours. At the very least, it is not a lack of TV revenue. A terrible TV contract did not keep UConn from winning national titles. A terrible TV contract did not keep Boise State from being relevant in football. Having less money than Illinois is not why Florida State has fallen off the map (and is also irrelevant to how they got back on). Money only goes so far in making your program interesting on the field. So, while Maryland will now be able to spend spend spend, it will not alone make the Terps on-court, on-field product any better.
And the correlation is not as direct as one thinks. After all, the TV revenue is nice, but Ohio State will always have more money. Michigan will always have more money. The football elite is elite for a reason. Having more money than Memphis and Temple is nice, but that does not get you to a nice bowl when you go 2-7 in conference play.
2. Maryland and Rutgers, Part II
Maryland and Rutgers just made decisions that allow them to leapfrog their neighbors in revenue. And, notwithstanding the caveats above, these schools certainly could use the influx of cash to become better. More likely, however, is that a kid in New Jersey considering Rutgers now has an even better reason to consider Michigan. Rutgers and Maryland will receive checks, but a part of those checks is the reality that the elite teams in the Big 10 now have a better chance to take kids from the mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, those same kids in that region could still go to Virginia to play a much greater percentage of games within driving distance. And so on.
3. The ACC’s Future.
As the Big East is proving, it is hard to kill a conference. But the ACC’s future as a legitimate conference depends on making sound moves in the near future. The Confidential remains adamant that it be the football schools, rather than the basketball schools, that “get to decide” this next entrant. The basketball schools are not losing much with Maryland. This is an opportunity to add the Louisville football program, Charlie Strong, and a nice Southern compliment to Georgia Tech, Clemson, etc. But, as also noted previously, if Florida State wants Wofford, Swofford needs to go for it. The basketball schools will be far more relevant if they can maintain the ACC, rather than push the football schools out the door.
As for the football schools, they need to give serious pause before jumping ship. The Big 10 just took two middling football programs with the confidence that their markets and the injection of revenue will make them stronger football programs. The same thing is just as likely with Pitt, Syracuse, and whoever team 14 becomes. The revenue jump for Maryland will not be that much different than the revenue jump from the Big East to the ACC. If money is so important, then it is just as important for the new additions to the ACC. Meanwhile, Pitt just landed a top 25 recruit. Syracuse just beat Missouri on the road to become bowl eligible. And if the football schools demand Louisville and get it, now you are looking at another top 25 team with a great coach joining the mix. Not so sure that losing Maryland matters at all. And football may be on the upswing with these additions.
Oh, and Louisville’s basketball is not too shabby either. Win/win.
4. Maryland Leaving Does Not Move the SB Nation Needle Too Much Over the Weekend
As of Sunday, the Confidential could not help but note the lack of discussion on the ACC’s SB Nation representatives until today. This news was very hot as of Saturday, but only Cardiac Hill (Pitt), TNIIAM (Syracuse), and BC Interruption (Boston College) were really discussing it. Pretty shocking really.
5. One More Thing
If Maryland’s donors, such as Mr. Under Armour, are willing to pay towards the exit fee (whatever it is), where were they when Maryland was allegedly in financial dire straits?
The Confidential 
Here’s what the ACC should do: hold firm on the $50M buyout from Maryland (which I fully expect the number to be in the end), even if means allowing MD to leave earlier than normal in order to get the maximum amount from them. Then use that money to buy the Grant of Rights for Penn State.
The ACC adds another Football King, (which will make FSU happy), plus in the “Conference Expansion as the game RISK”, you’ve geographically cut off the B1G from Rutgers and Maryland.
In this respect, Pennsylvania is literally the Keystone to eastern expansion. Without it, the B1G has the football equivalents to Depaul and Marquette. They’re far away, give you access to Pro-sports markets, and will never give you a championship.
The primary argument will be “Why would PSU leave the B1G and upwards of $35M per year?”
First, PSU isn’t getting any post season money for the next few years, so they’re really looking at about $25M annually. Not too far from the $17M that ACC schools will get.
Secondly, the ACC + ND + PSU – MD can negotiate a better tv contract for the ACC, likely upwards of $20-25M.
Thirdly, the ACC could allow PSU to resume collecting money from the post season and I doubt that anyone would notice or care. So, add another $10M to that.
Lastly, when PSU finally does become eligible for the postseason, they will probably have a better shot at winning the conference.
And last time I checked, the research schools in the ACC seem to do pretty well with respect to corporate research dollars and there is exceptionally company academically.
PItt isn’t going to like it, and it will probably hurt Syracuse as well from a recruiting standpoint, but it will shore-up the football ranks and sends a clear message to the rest of the conference: every time someone tries to poach the ACC, we poach right back.
You can always add Louisville and UConn to the ACC later.
Hmmm… I never thought about using the money that way. Good thinking.
HOWEVER, the Penn State Grant of Rights would never be settled for $50M, given that the ACC is setting the bar for $50M for all ACC schools. Penn State is necessarily bigger. A legal expert in damages would be able to blackboard a lot more in damages for Penn State leaving, giving the Big Ten no reason to negotiate to that amount.
I like where you are going with the idea though.
How is the GofR pricing determined? Doesn’t there have to be some intrinsic value that everyone knows going into the deal, or can it be completely open ended like that?
Is it based on the existing contract, or does it extend beyond the 2017 renewal?
So many questions…
Anyway, I say the ACC needs to GO BIG on this one. Do whatever it takes to land Penn State. Throw as much cash as is needed, the ROI will be HUGE!
The money from the ACC may be a step down, or at best lateral…but I imagine that from an academics/research perspective there is a lot of clout to being among the top schools such as: Duke, ND, UVA, WF, UNC, BC, GT, UM, SU, etc… Much better than Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, etc…
How about this. Screw Maryland and Just go with UL ASAP. It’s an upgrade all around and geographically, Maryland is still in the footprint so, no matter.
Agreed. This is the BEST move
It’s not the best move; it’s the better of the two choices that are the easiest to pull off.
Yes, when compared with adding UConn, L’Ville makes the most sense.
Compared with trying to keep up with the SEC, PAC-12, B1G, or Big XII then it’s Marinatto-esque.
I understand and agree that trying to get PSU to the ACC is highly improbable, but adding Louisville or UConn only prevents the invitable: the ACC will become a slightly improved version of the Big East.
Adding MD and Rutgers to the B1G is a huge gamble; since it’s entirely based on tv markets and not on-the-field production…but its a ballsy move.
Agree with all your points, but the first one especially. I’ve seen very little written noting the fact that schools in both the Big Ten and SEC who have been getting all the coveted money still field mediocre football and basketball teams. For example — Miss., Miss. St., Vandy, Indiana, Iowa, Illinois, Northwestern, and it can be expanded to the PAC 12 and the Big 12 — Iowa St., Washington, Washington St, Colorado. Money does not equal success. Are any of the schools I’ve just listed generally considered to be head and shoulders better than any ACC? On a neutral field/court in either football or basketball is there any one of them that you can say will consistently beat Wake Forest or Duke (since they are generally considered the worst two football teams). How about N.C. State or Miami (recently middling programs in football & basketball)? I know you get the point, since you made it. Any suggestion that the future will bring a different result is simply speculation.
The devil is in the details, but I think the more you look at this deal, especially for Maryland, the more you have to wonder if it was really worth it:
“All of the deals are a little bit different,” he said. “What will happen is, in six years, everyone who comes in — whether it was Nebraska, Rutgers or Maryland — six years hence will be in the same place. But in the transition they’re all a little bit different. They will be made whole at a certain time. Everybody’s different because everybody is coming from a different place.”
http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/index.ssf/2012/11/rutgers_joins_big_ten_marking.html
So….the B1G can beat up on Maryland and Rutgers annually, maximize exposure for Mid-west teams in two of the biggest east coast markets, pilfer their recruiting grounds, AND pay them LESS than everyone else for 6 years?
Even if Maryland can negotiate down the $50M exit fee, to say $30M, they’re going to have to repay. If it’s over a 6-year period, that’s $5M per year. If they make a dollar less than $19M/year in the B1G during that span, they are losing money.
Post deleted for being abusive, rather than informative.