The Confidential

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Archive for the month “March, 2013”

31 Mar 2013
4 Comments

Orange Crush!

What a great run the past few days for the Orange.  Boeheim always seems to do better when they are not supposed to win.  Both wins were done in such impressive fashion the OrangeNation can truly celebrate this season.  For all the Boeheim flaws, people have to respect how understated he is.  When he said a week or so ago that this was his best defensive team he meant it. 

As Lenville hinted to me in an earlier post it could be Louisville – Syracuse Game # 4 this season!  I think this is Louisville’s tournament to lose as I thought going in Louisville was probably the best team and they certainly have done nothing to make me think otherwise.   I hope MCW and company can lead them to at least the championship game.  I attended the 1987 and 1996 Final Fours when Syracuse lost in the finals.  I did not attend the 2003 Final Four when they won.  As much as I would like to go to Atlanta, I will stay away to see if the 2003 history can repeat itself.

Three straight Final Fours without an ACC team but at least two newcomers help out.  How hard do you think the Big East office in Providence was rooting for Marquette? 

Trey Burke of Michigan vs Michael Carter-Williams on Saturday night – a great point guard matchup that should determine the winner. 

What do you think – does a Syracuse championship get Boeheim to change his mind and retire?  As much as he said he’s not done, its reasonable to think he would reconsider if the Orange wins the whole thing.

Posted by tjcuseacc in Uncategorized
31 Mar 2013
4 Comments

Confidential Bracket: Update 3/31/13

The Final Four is set.  Congratulations to Syracuse, Wichita State, Michigan, and Louisville for reaching the pinnacle of college hoops.  Again, the stakes are higher at this stage–losing hurts all the more.  The Confidential noted it recently.

It kind of works like that with the brackets.  If you are in the top 5, you are THIS close to earning $25.  To come this close and fall short would be awful.

Going to be an interesting finish.  Here is the top 20 (including today’s games):

1
WinnersBracket
 48 39 25 8 – Louisville 30 150
2
Florida State
 50 30 20 16 – Kansas 29 145
3
Cuse Stormin the ACC
 48 30 25 16 – Syracuse 21 140
4
TheEssentialsOfCool.com
 48 30 15 16 – Louisville 23 132
5
Da Cuseman Cometh
 42 30 25 16 – Syracuse 17 130
6
Boeheimian Rhapsody
 50 27 20 8 – Syracuse 23 128
7
Boeheims possible farewell
 44 30 20 16 – Syracuse 17 127
8
LenVILLE
 48 30 15 8 – Louisville 18 119
9
Cards 80 86 13?
 44 21 15 16 – Louisville 17 113
9
KC’s Bracket
 46 33 10 8 – Louisville 16 113
11
Will Bonn’s Bracket
 42 27 25 0 – Indiana 18 112
12
Maverick
 44 30 20 8 – Louisville 8 110
12
win prizes
 40 30 20 0 – Gonzaga 20 110
14
Allen’s Bracket
 40 27 15 16 – Louisville 11 109
15
Bye Bye Big East
 46 33 15 0 – Georgetown 12 106
15
KAOS
 36 30 20 8 – Georgetown 12 106
17
Rebecca’s Dandy Bracket
 40 30 15 0 – Duke 18 103
17
Goop’s Bracket
 40 33 10 0 – Miami (FL) 20 103
19
BracketBuster.
 46 24 15 0 – Kansas 16 101
20
My Legit Bracket
 42 33 15 8 – Louisville 0 98
20
Otto the Great and Powerful
 42 33 15 8 – Louisville 0 98
Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Bracket Contest and tagged , ,
31 Mar 2013
4 Comments

The ACC Has At Least Two Final Four Teams to Root For

As the march to Georgia Tech’s hometown of Atlanta continues, fans of the ACC can be certain that they will have at least two teams to root for.  By beating Marquette handily in yesterday’s Elite 8 game, Syracuse ensured that there will be someone from on that side of the bracket to root for.  Meanwhile, there is no doubt that one of Duke or Louisville will be heading to Atlanta too.  So ACC fans can be certain that they will have a rooting interest for two of the teams next weekend.  But that just leads to two more questions.

#1.  Who are you rooting for in today’s game between the Blue Devils and the Cardinals?

For Duke fans, that is easy.  For Louisville fans, that is easy.  But if you are a fan of one of the other thirteen schools, who are you going to be cheering for?  Is the Duke hatred so strong that you are leaning Louisville?  As a future ACC member, it would be fine to root for Louisville anyway.  Then again, they currently represent the Big East (or the leftovers, or whatever they are being called right now)?  And then there is the coaches–some people have strong feelings about Coach K and Rick Pitino.  The one thing that is clear is that both are excellent coaches.  Should be a great game today.

#2. A similar question arises out of the Michigan-Florida matchup.

The Big 10 is becoming the New York Yankees of college sports–throwing their money around without any regard for making sound decisions or the “Butterfly Effect” impact on the rest of college sports.  If that is not bad enough, how can anyone root for the Michigan Wolverines?  The cockiest of all the Big 10 fanbases, the program brought us the Fab 5, and then sanctions for apparently having bought the Fab 5.  And the football team is full of self-worth and entitlement, despite once thinking that hiring Greg Robinson was a step in the right direction for a defense.  But the other option is Florida–rival to Florida State and Miami.  Not exactly the most modest of fan bases either.  And Billy Donovan had his own core of players that, much like the Fab 5, provided two years of outstanding play.  At the very least, it is difficult to dislike Billy Donovan and his Michigan counterpart, John Beilein.

So, you tell us, who are you rooting for in today’s Elite 8 matchups?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, March Madness and tagged , , , , , , , , , ,
30 Mar 2013

Confidential Bracket: Update 3/30/13

At the midpoint of the Elite Eight stage, half the participants are not picked to win by anyone (Florida, Michigan, Marquette, and Wichita State).  Meanwhile, the entrants that picked Kansas, Indiana, Gonzaga, Georgetown, Miami, and St. Louis are in trouble.

Going to be an interesting finish.  Here is the top 25 (excluding today’s games):

1
WinnersBracket
 48 39 25 – – Louisville 30 142
2
Florida State
 50 30 20 – – Kansas 28 128
3
Cuse Stormin the ACC
 48 30 25 – – Syracuse 20 123
4
Boeheimian Rhapsody
 50 27 20 – – Syracuse 22 119
5
TheEssentialsOfCool.com
 48 30 15 – – Louisville 22 115
6
Da Cuseman Cometh
 42 30 25 – – Syracuse 16 113
7
Will Bonn’s Bracket
 42 27 25 – – Indiana 18 112
8
LenVILLE
 48 30 15 – – Louisville 18 111
9
win prizes
 40 30 20 – – Gonzaga 20 110
9
Boeheims possible farewell
 44 30 20 – – Syracuse 16 110
11
Bye Bye Big East
 46 33 15 – – Georgetown 12 106
12
KC’s Bracket
 46 33 10 – – Louisville 16 105
13
Goop’s Bracket
 40 33 10 – – Miami (FL) 20 103
13
Rebecca’s Dandy Bracket
 40 30 15 – – Duke 18 103
15
Maverick
 44 30 20 – – Louisville 8 102
16
BracketBuster.
 46 24 15 – – Kansas 16 101
17
KAOS
 36 30 20 – – Georgetown 12 98
18
Cards 80 86 13?
 44 21 15 – – Louisville 16 96
19
mikemab wolf
 42 27 20 – – Ohio St. 6 95
20
Allen’s Bracket
 40 27 15 – – Louisville 10 92
21
My Legit Bracket
 42 33 15 – – Louisville 0 90
21
BeerThirty
 40 27 15 – – Miami (FL) 8 90
21
Otto the Great and Powerful
 42 33 15 – – Louisville 0 90
24
Mr. Tar Heel
 36 24 15 – – Saint Louis 8 83
24
*Commander Caffrey
 38 27 10 – – Indiana 8 83
Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, Bracket Contest and tagged , ,
30 Mar 2013

NCAA Tournament- Elite Eight Conference Breakdown

Eight teams remain. Just like that, the field has been cut in half again. After an up-and-down second round filled with blowouts and surprises, the Sweet Sixteen proved to be just as exciting, producing the Tournament’s first overtime game. Are these the best eight teams in the country? Maybe, maybe not. But they’re the best eight in this tournament.

ACC

Tournament Teams (4)- Duke, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina State

Remaining Tournament Teams (1)- Duke

Verdict- Miami just couldn’t take care of business. Forget that Reggie Johnson couldn’t play due to injury, this is a team that scored only 16-points in the first half of Thursday’s loss against Marquette. That’s a not a winning formula. Now they must seek to replace departing seniors Julian Gamble,  Kenny Kadji, Garrius Adams, Trey McKinney-Jones, Durand Scott and Johnson, while dealing with the real possibility that star sophomore point guard Shane Larkin still has time to enter the NBA Draft. Looking at the team’s roster, that’s just about every single player who got significant minutes this season. They just didn’t capitalize on the rare experience that they had, and the opportunity to do so has passed. Duke, on the hand, is leaning hard on its veterans to great success, as five out the seven players in Duke’s tight rotation are upperclassmen. Led by senior wingman Seth Curry, the Blue Devils looked confident in their first win against Power-Six competition this tournament.  Say what you will about Duke always receiving favorable seeding (and they do, just look at the 2010 Championship cakewalk), but they don’t often lose to teams that they shouldn’t, and they have the ability to overachieve when they need to. Next up is a strong Louisville team, which will be a preview of future ACC matchups when the Cardinals officially join the conference in 2014. With powerful scorers on both sides, look for this to be the most exciting game of Sunday’s lineup.

Big 12

Tournament Teams (5)- Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Kansas

Remaining Tournament Teams (0)-

Verdict- With just three minutes left in the Jayhawks’ game against Michigan, it looked like the boys from Lawrence were going to walk their way into the next round of the Big Dance. A healthy lead, and a favorable clock, were only two of the factors working in their favor. But then they worked against themselves. They got lazy. They got content. That’s when Trey Burke took over. After a scoreless first half, he exploded in the second half, and made a capped off Michigan’s unlikely run when he made a three-pointer to tie the game with 4.3 seconds left. The Big 12 has now been eliminated from the NCAA Tournament. It’s easy to think that the ceiling for this Kansas team was higher, but they lost focus when it counted the most. And it cost them their season.

Big East

Tournament Teams (8)- Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, Syracuse, Marquette

Remaining Tournament Teams (3)- Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette

Verdict- Suddenly, the Big East has gone from an afterthought, to a real threat in this tournament (if you ignore the fact that Louisville and Syracuse are now ACC teams). Marquette didn’t just hang on in this round, as they had against Davidson and Butler, they destroyed a hapless Miami team that fell to the inconsistency that has plagued them all season. Louisville and Syracuse looked strong in wins over tough competition, with the Orange taking out the second number one seed, the Indian Hoosiers. In the Elite Eight, the Big East will face a problem that it often encounters this time of year- Syracuse and Marquette are playing each other, which means that only two Big East teams can advance to the Final Four.  With a tough matchup against a veteran Duke team, the Louisville Cardinals must stay focused if they want to make it to Atlanta too.

 Big Ten

Tournament Teams (7)- Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois

Remaining Tournament Teams (2)-  Ohio State, Michigan

 Verdict- For the first time since the Fab Five, Michigan will be in the Elite Eight. Think about that for a minute. That’s twenty years. Where have they been? It’s hard not to be impressed with the program that John Beilein is building in Ann Arbor though, especially after an unlikely comeback against a dominant Kansas team. A once proud program, the Wolverines now carry the banner for the conference with their longtime rivals, the Ohio State Buckeyes. While Big Ten fans will still point to their league’s dominance this year, their tournament success has now been eclipsed by the resurgent Big East, which has three teams still dancing. In order to defend the title of “best conference” bestowed on them this season, the Big Ten must come out strong in the Elite Eight. A favorable matchup against a well-coached Wichita State team could have Ohio State looking ahead at the wrong time, while Michigan needs to stay focused in order to not fall prey to their own success.

 Pac-12

Tournament Teams (5)- Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, California, Colorado

Remaining Tournament Teams (0)-

Verdict- Much like the Big 12, the Pac-12 is now without a representative in the Big Dance. Neither loss was surprising, as both schools lost to higher-seeded teams. Yet, while Oregon can hang their heads high after a surprising run in the Tournament, Arizona probably can’t help but think that the opportunity to advance got away from them. Long before LaQuinton Ross’ last-second shot, an early 11-point lead quickly became only a four-point lead at halftime. The killer instinct seen in the first few minutes of the game, was replaced by a frantic effort to keep up, and the Wildcats just couldn’t hang on. While the conference might have had a better-than-expected tournament, it has to be disappointing nevertheless.

 SEC

Tournament Teams (3) – Missouri, Ole Miss, Florida, Kentucky

Remaining Tournament Teams (1)- Florida

Verdict- Florida is now the bad guy. After taking out Tournament-darling, and pseudo in-state rival Florida Gulf Coast, the Gators now have a target on their back. Everyone loves a Cinderella. No one likes the team that beats them. In order to advance to the Final Four, Florida must embrace this role and run with it. They face a Michigan team that just completed a surprising run of its own; the unexpected Cinderella of the third round. If they can use their position as a strength, it would not be surprising to see the Gators in Atlanta next weekend.

It’s hard to believe that it took this long to get an overtime game in the Tournament. While there have been numerous buzzer-beaters, an all-out, grind-fest hasn’t been seen until now. Here’s to hoping that the Elite Eight can reach the bar that has just been set.

Posted by Mr. Tar Heel in Basketball, March Madness, UNC Correspondent, Uncategorized
30 Mar 2013
2 Comments

March Madness? More Like March Sadness

Well, we are down to 8 teams left for the NCAA Championship.  There are 347 teams that compete in Division 1 basketball.  Aside from the other post-season tournaments, there are 8 teams left.  What an amazing accomplishment for those teams.  March Madness can be the greatest of times.  But it really is also the worst of times.   A March Sadness, if you will.

Each year, there are 16 teams given 1 through 4 seeds.  If a #1 seed wins it all, that means that 15 of those 16 seeded teams will end the season with a loss.  In fact, 67 of the 68 teams in the Big Dance end the season with a loss.  All but one.

Of course, that happens in the NFL too.  And the other major sports have playoff series that end.  The difference with the pros is that those teams can, in theory, remain fully intact for the following year.  There is always “next year.”

There is no next year for college Seniors.  And if you are a very good college underclassman, there is no next year either.  It just makes it so…. “final.”  As a fan, it’s tough enough to know that this is the last time you will see that superstar.  But it is even harder to say goodbye to that 4-year Senior who went from a clueless Freshman to a capable Senior.  The guy who went from a boy to a man right in front of your eyes.  And then he loses, sheds tears on TV, and is gone.  Forever.  At least in that jersey.

And it is never easy.  Think being Georgetown is tough?  Losing to a 15-seed is embarrassing and difficult-to-stomach.  But what about Indiana–a #1 seed losing to ANYONE is tough.  They were, in theory, “supposed to beat” Syracuse.  And now it’s over.  It is not limited to being a high seed.  Pittsburgh and North Carolina State had low expectations and exited without much fanfare.  It’s still ending the season with a loss.

Of course, some team will lose in the National Championship and consider THAT to be the worst-type of defeat.  Syracuse fans still mourn the Keith Smart shot–even though they were the last team to taste the bitter pill of defeat in 1987.  They may have lost on a shot with a few seconds left, but everyone else was at home.  Syracuse had it better than all but one team.  And yet there is only painful memories.  So there is nothing great about losing late.  Or early.  Or in the middle.  It’s all about losses.  And yet the late losses sting the most.  So as the teams continue to win, the emotions increase.  The desire to win is as much to taste victory as it is to stave off the inevitable sadness that all but one fanbase will be forced to suffer through.  What a paradox!

March Madness may be the greatest event in sports, but one cannot help but notice just how much sadness permeates the whole process.  For this year’s crop of Elite 8, losing this weekend means no Final Four.  It means walking off the court as the net-cutting ladder is coming on.  The only consolation is that you did not have to endure the same thing on the final night of the season.  Maybe the bowl season is not so bad after all?

 

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, March Madness, Opinion and tagged , , , , ,
29 Mar 2013
4 Comments

Sweet Sixteen: The Best Cinderellas in the Modern Era

The Cleveland Fan has put together a list of the top 40 Cinderellas since 1979.  40?  Must be an homage to the Rock-n-Roll Hall of Fame.  Regardless, the Confidential does not like the list very much.

First–take Kansas, Villanova, and North Carolina State off.   Those teams did not overachieve in the post-season.  They underachieved during the regular season.  That Villanova team was stacked with talent, including experienced players that were ideal for their positions.  Besides, Cinderella cannot come from a major conference.

Second, here is the remaining list:

 

Sweet 16 of All-Time Cinderella teams:

  1. George Mason (2006) – Seed #11 / Finish: Final Four–including an epic defeat of #1 UConn along the way.
  2. VCU (2011) – Seed: #11 / Finish: Final Four–an outstanding run, especially from the play-in game.
  3. Butler (2010): Seed #5 / Finish Finals Runner-Up–the seed is a bit high for a Cinderella, but look at the great teams they beat along the way.
  4. Davidson (2008) – Seed: #9 / Finish: Elite Eight
  5. Gonzaga (1999) – Seed: #10 / Finish: Elite Eight
  6. Louisiana State (1986) – Seed: #11 / Finish: Final Four
  7. Florida Gulf Coast (2013)–Seed #15/ Finish: TBD
  8. Loyola Marymount (1990) – Seed #11 / Finish: Elite Eight
  9. Kent State (2002) – Seed: #10 / Finish: Elite Eight
  10. Xavier (2004) – Seed: #7 / Finish: Elite Eight
  11. LaSalle (2013): Seed #14 / Finish: TBD
  12. Northern Iowa (2010) – Seed: #9 / Finish: Sweet Sixteen
  13. Butler (2011) – Seed: #8 / Finish: Finals Runner-Up
  14. Tennessee-Chattanooga(1997) – Seed: #14 / Finish: Sweet Sixteen
  15. Cleveland State (1986) – Seed: #14 / Finish: Sweet Sixteen
  16. Valparaiso (1998) – Seed: #13 / Finish: Sweet Sixteen

How did we do? Did we miss anyone?  Disagree?

Posted by acaffrey in Basketball, March Madness, Opinion and tagged , ,
28 Mar 2013
2 Comments

State of the Pack: The Pursuit of Gottfried

Yesterday it was reported by several outlets that Wolfpack Coach Mark Gottfried was THE choice among UCLA alumni for their head coaching vacancy.  Some also said he would take the job if offered.

IMHO the UCLA job is a step down.  Not to demean them, historically they have us beat, but the John Wooden era is long over.  Heck, moving from any ACC school to another conference is probably a step in the wrong direction, at least when it comes to basketball.

This correspondent was outraged that he might consider such a move. I was going to write a scathing post, but real life intervened and I didn’t have time yesterday.

By this afternoon, the news had changed somewhat.  Coach G tweeted last night that he is committed to State, and UCLA is apparently moving in a different direction, wooing Butler’s Brad Stevens.  So I took a deep breath and wadded up my mental notebook paper, missing the trash can as usual, even in my mind.  For now, this looks like a non-issue.

More basketball news:  Lorenzo Brown announced today his intent to skip his senior season and enter the NBA draft.  He and Gottfried feel that he will be a first-round pick; I think second round is more realistic.  While we will of course miss him, we thank him for his time at State and wish him the best.  He can probably learn more about the NBA and what it will take to succeed there by making the jump, even if it means riding the pine for a while.

That’s it for now.  Enjoy the tournament and I hope your team makes the Final Four, especially if it is one of the two remaining ACC or one of the “future” teams.  And have a great Easter weekend.

Posted by mikemab2000 in ACC only, Basketball, March Madness, NC State Correspondent, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
28 Mar 2013

Sweet Sixteen: Oregon vs. Louisville, LukeRuss Oil Stadium

(Credits: Disney/University of Louisville)

(Credits: Disney/University of Louisville)

When the University of Louisville takes the court to face the Oregon Ducks in the Sweet Sixteen in Indianapolis on Friday, there will be much speculation as to whether the Cardinals can extend their tournament domination by beating up on the Ducks like they did the Aggies and Rams.

Of course, the team Rick Pitino & Co. will face is unlike the previous foes in rounds two and three; Oregon hails from a power conference whereas NC A&T and Colorado State hail from conferences which are not at the top of the college basketball food chain.

The Cardinals have made their way to the Sweet Sixteen by beating their opponents by an average of 28.5 points and shooting over 56 percent from the field.  The Cardinals shot better from the charity stripe against Colorado State and scored 24 points off 20 Ram turnovers.

Enter the Ducks of Eugene.  After defeating ranked UCLA in the PAC-12 conference title game, Oregon beat its first two opponents by 13 points (Oklahoma State) and 14 points (Saint Louis) by shooting over 45 percent from the field.  One disparity jumps out when studying the statistics from the Ducks’ victories thus far – they shot 38 percent from behind the arc versus OK State and 72 percent against Saint Louis.  This inconsistency from three-point range could murk the waters in the Round of 32.

However, when the casual observer looks further into both teams’ overall shooting percentages this season, the teams appear comparable.  Louisville is shooting 44.5 percent from field goal range and Oregon is averaging 44.7 percent.  Louisville is averaging 33.17 percent from behind the arc and Oregon is shooting 33.27 percent.

In a game where offensive statistics can tell a story of two similar teams, one must dig deeper to find a true winner on paper.

Horses and Hoops prediction: this game will come down to turnovers.  Louisville committed 456 turnovers (12.6 per game) on the whole while Oregon turned the ball over 543 times (15 per game).

Guard play and defensive pressure will play pivotal roles in this matchup.  With Louisville’s tendency to force more turnovers and to score lots of points off those errors, I expect the Cardinals to keep up the intensity and stifle the Oregon offense.  Besides, the Big East was strides better than the PAC-12 in the 2012-13 season and these figures must be viewed in light of conference competition and defense.

My analysis hinges upon there being no hiccups or surprise injuries (knock on wood) in Friday’s matchup at 7:15 p.m. at Lucas Oil Stadium.  Hopefully, Russ Arena’s furor and Luke Hancock’s consistency will travel with the Cardinals to Indianapolis and descend with the same intensity to create a LukeRuss Oil Stadium all clad in red.

Posted by MBenjAdams in ACC only, Basketball, Louisville Correspondent, March Madness, Predictions, Schedule and tagged , , , , ,
28 Mar 2013
1 Comment

Sorry Duke Fans, Collins to Northwestern

Northwestern has issued a press release confirming the hiring of Duke’s Chris Collins.  Sorry Blue Devils, fans.  Although I am sure you can easily reload with other former alums.  Greg Paulus, anyone?

http://www.nusports.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/032713aac.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=449343&hq_l=14&hq_v=b663d3491d

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , ,

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