Confidential Bracketology: March 10, 2014
Let’s have some fun projecting the NCAA’s top 4 seeds for the Big Dance. This is based on what the Confidential thinks will happen… not going by “if the season ended today.” Projecting out how the regular season tournaments will finish and what the committee will actually do. We limit it to the seeded teams.
The New York City Bracket:
#1. Villanova (Buffalo pod)
#2. Michigan (Milwaukee pod)
#3. Syracuse (Buffalo pod)
#4. Louisville (Orlando pod)
Villanova has won 11 of 12, with losses to only Syracuse and Creighton (twice). They are getting the nod for the MSG bracket for now. Michigan is a bit better right now than Syracuse, but let’s see what happens in Indianapolis and Greensboro this week. Louisville takes Michigan State’s spot on the board in a seeded bracket with 3 Big East teams from 2012-2013.
The Memphis Bracket:
#1. Florida (Orlando pod)
#2. Duke (Raleigh pod)
#3. Creighton (St. Louis pod)
#4. Oklahoma (San Antonio pod)
Florida keeps on winning, earning them the right for the #1 seed overall and Memphis. Duke was given a #2, but can win the ACC title and edge up into the #1 spot perhaps. Creighton and Oklahoma round out the bracket.
The Indianapolis Bracket:
#1. Wichita State (St. Louis pod)
#2. Kansas (San Antonio pod)
#3. Wisconsin (Milwaukee pod)
#4. Cincinnati (San Diego pod)
At 34-0, Wichita State is a certain #1. Kansas has an 8th loss. They cannot get a #1 seed. At some point, 8 losses is too much for a #1 seed. Wisconsin slides back to the Midwest, with Cincinnati also sliding into this regional.
The Anaheim Bracket:
#1. Arizona (San Diego pod)
#2. Virginia (Raleigh pod)
#3. Iowa State (Spokane pod)
#4. San Diego State (Spokane pod)
Arizona vs San Diego State would be a great rematch in Anaheim. Virginia’s loss to Maryland emboldens the shipment out West. A lot can happen in the ACC Tourney though, including a potential #1 seed? Iowa State is flying under everyone’s radar, but has a ton of talent that will make it interesting.
The Confidential 
So, you’ve got North Carolina as an at best 5 seed? Why?
8 overall losses.
3 losses to teams with 100+ RPI
The current streak has a win over Duke, but the next best win is over bubble-resident Pitt at home. Everyone else is on the wrong side of the bubble.
RPI of 20. Ranking in the teens.
Much to be decided yet though.
I still think if the early season losses are so important than the wins over Michigan State, Kentucky and Louisville have to be considered in the same light. The Tar Heels have such an unbelievably young team and have really embodied the “more with less” theme this season. Marcus Paige is the clear leader, but they’ve found a way to win when he hasn’t played his best. Duke has almost as many losses and has lost to pretty much all the good teams they played (Kansas, Arizona, Syracuse, UNC- yes, they also beat Cuse and UNC but UNC also beat Duke). Sadly, there’s always a double standard when it comes to the Blue Devils. If Parker and/or Hood has an off night that team is done.
If UNC wins the ACC tournament, they could still end up a #3. The committee tends to place WAY too much emphasis on the conference tourneys. I recall Syracuse going from the bubble to a #5 seed based on winning the Big East tourney, as one example.
Also, the committee can bump seeds by 1 in either direction to assist with matchups. So it is plausible that UNC could end up in Raleigh even as a #5. Frankly, it is probably LIKELY that this happens.
Bring on Nova, I think their over rated. I would worry more about Mich & Syracuse. Good work on the seedings.
No matter what we’re seeded, there will be a match-up with Kansas in the first few rounds guaranteed….