The Confidential

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17 Nov 2011

ACC Basketball Recap: Games of November 16, 2011

The ACC was undefeated on the season heading into the games of November 16, 2011.  The Confidential analyzed same at length.  Now it is debatable whether the ACC remains undefeated.

To be sure, the 12 teams currently in the ACC are undefeated at 26-0.  However, we have waffled as to whether to include the future teams, Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  With all the conference realignment, schools and conferences should be looking out for long-term interests, not the present.

And then Pitt had to go and lose to Long Beach State last night, 86-76.  In fact, CBS reports as follows regarding Pitt’s dominance at home in recent years:

Casper Ware scored a career-high 28 points, James Ennis added 19, and Larry Anderson had 12 points and seven assists for the 49ers (2-0), who emphatically ended Pitt’s 58-game nonconference home winning streak.

* * *

Pitt drew within six points on a few occasions but each time the 49ers answered to become the first non-Big East team to beat the Panthers at home since Bucknell in 2005.

* * *

Pitt came in unbeaten in 80 home nonconference games in November and December at “the Pete.”

In fact, the article did not even bother to analyze just how dominant Pitt has been at the Petersen Events Center in conference games.  Few Big East schools have been successful in that venue.  All in all, a very impressive win for Long Beach State.  Conversely, Pitt’s top 10 ranking is now seriously in jeopardy.

As noted above, the current ACC teams “held serve” though:

  • North Carolina State moved to 3-0 by holding off always-pesky Princeton, 60-58.  NC State held Princeton to under 40% from the field and outrebounded the Tigers 40-24.  And yet they trailed at the half and won by 2 points.  Still, a win is a win.
  • Florida State also moved to 3-0, defeating visiting Stetson, 79-66.  The Confidential predicted good things from Florida State this year.  Taking care of business in November is a great way to start.
  • In other games, Wake Forest moved to 2-0 by beating Georgia Southern, 81-72.  And Clemson defeated The Citadel by a comfortable 73-50 margin.

With these four wins, the ACC remains the only conference whose current teams are undefeated.  With Pitt’s loss, the Big East drops to 33-3.  The Big XII and the Big 10 still have only two conference losses.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , ,
16 Nov 2011
2 Comments

ACC Still Undefeated in Basketball!

After five full days of college basketball, the Atlantic Coast Conference remains undefeated.  2011-2012 is off to an outstanding start.

The Confidential readily acknowledges that this trend is not going to continue.  In fact, no single team has gone undefeated in nearly 35 years.  So the idea of multiple teams going undefeated is unlikely, much less anyone from the same conference. In fact, it is impossible for two teams in the same conference to go undefeated–they all play each other at least once.  At least until the Big East expands to 90 teams.

However worthless this trend might be, it nevertheless gives ACC some early bragging rights over the rest of the basketball landscape.  Consider that the ACC is currently 22-0.  If you include Pittsburgh and Syracuse, that surges to 27-0.

How do the other conferences compare to the ACC this year?  Nobody else is undefeated.  Nobody else even has one loss.  Check it out:

  • The Big East claims to have the best basketball in the land.  Off to a 31-2 start (including Syracuse and Pitt).  Sure, they can blame one of those losses on West Virginia, who is more interested in suing the Big East than representing it.  But Rutgers lost to Miami.  Game.  Set.  Match.
  • The Big XII?  With Kansas, some claim that this is the best basketball in the land.  17-2.  Kansas lost to Kentucky.  And Iowa State lost to someone.  Feel free to look up who.  Doesn’t matter to The Confidential.
  • The Mountain West was sitting pretty heading into yesterday undefeated, but has now dropped to 14-2.  A fade back into irrelevance is now in order.  Also, keep an eye on the back door, the Big East is hunting in your backyard.
  • The Big 10?  20-2.  No, that’s not the halftime score of a Wisconsin game.  That’s the Big 10’s overall record.  And Michigan State’s losses both came to ACC schools.
  • Pac-12?  Not sure why the Pac-12 is credited with having elite anything.  Every year they fail to place enough teams in bowl games.  Every March, the bracketologists wonder whether they will get 4 teams in.  18-6 to start the season.  Ugh.  Stupid West Coast bias.
  • The SEC?  Stick to football.  19-5.

So, there it is.  After five days, the ACC is rather plainly dominating college basketball.

As it should be.  Right?

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , ,
16 Nov 2011
2 Comments

ACC Football Predictions for November 19, 2011

After a 5-1  week last week, here are The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams:

Virginia Tech (9-1) hosting North Carolina (6-4)

The easy pick here is Virginia Tech.  Look at where the game is being played.  Look at the records.  Look at the general directions the teams are headed.  Ignore the fact that North Carolina beat Virginia Tech the last time the teams met in Blacksburg.  That last one is bit scary.  But this is game that Virginia Tech needs to control its destiny.  And the Confidential does not see this North Carolina team pulling off the upset.  Virginia Tech 20, North Carolina 10.

North Carolina State (5-5) hosting Clemson (9-1)

Clemson has been making it interesting lately.  And they are surely riding high with their berth in the ACC Championship game now assured.  There is certainly a risk of Clemson looking past the team that just lost to Boston College.  And then there is “any given Saturday.”  But the visitors just have too much talent.  Clemson 35, North Carolina State 13.

Duke (3-7) hosting Georgia Tech (7-3)

Georgia Tech is a hard team to figure out.  They have lost 3 of 4 games.  But that is sandwiched around giving Clemson its only loss.  Georgia Tech is only 2-2 on the road.  Meanwhile, in Duke’s last two home games, they lost to Wake Forest and Virginia Tech by a combined 5 points.  Of course, Florida State and Stanford had their way in that same location.  This is a game where nobody should be shocked if Duke pulls the upset, but The Confidential does not see it.  Georgia Tech 27, Duke 17.

Wake Forest (5-5) hosting Maryland (2-8)

Wake Forest is a team that is two bounces away from being 7-3.  And they have struggled at home against superior foes, such as Virginia Tech and Notre Dame.  Maryland, of course, is not a superior foe.  In fact, Maryland’s season seems to be spiraling out of control.  While nothing is impossible, a Maryland win here would be simply shocking.  Wake Forest 30, Maryland 12.

Notre Dame (7-3) hosting Boston College (3-7)

The Notre Dame ACC tour continues.  So far, Notre Dame has beaten Wake Forest and Maryland in ACC country.  For this one, Notre Dame gets to host it.  While Boston College has won 2 out of 3, this one still looks like a game that Notre Dame will have to lose for itself.  While it has certainly shown the ability to lose games by untimely turnovers in great quantity, it seems unlikely here.  Notre Dame 38, Boston College 14.

South Florida (5-4) hosting Miami (5-5)

This is a battle for bowl eligibility.  Miami does have the benefit of hosting Boston College next week, while South Florida has two conference games remaining.  Miami is likely to be down after a tough loss on the road at Florida State.  Meanwhile, South Florida has some momentum back after righting the ship at Syracuse.  BJ Daniels has not been the problem this year.  This is bigger than a bowl game for the Bulls.   South Florida 27, Miami 13.  

GAME OF THE WEEK

Florida State (7-3) hosting Virginia (7-3).  Virginia has already won at Miami.  But if you look a little deeper, you’ll see that Virginia’s wins are not overly impressive.  Sure, the win over Georgia Tech was impressive.  But this game is, by far, Virginia’s toughest challenge.  At least until next week.  Meanwhile, Florida State seems to have righted the ship.  These are the games that will dictate whether Florida State returns to being football elite or will continue to be mired in mediocrity.  The old Florida State would see 10-3 as the only possible way to salvage the season and prepare for a 14-0 run next year.  Florida State 24, Virginia 14.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  There is also a lot of chalk here.  However, predictions are made to be accurate, not controversial.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
15 Nov 2011
1 Comment

Coach K Gets #903!

The Confidential is very proud to recognize the Duke’s Mike Krzyzewski as the all-time leader in coaching wins at the Division I level.  Tonight, he and the Blue Devils were able to beat a game Michigan State Spartans squad 74-69.  In the process, Coach K moved out of a tie with his former coach, Bob Knight, and into sole possession of first on the all-time wins list.

While there will be no shortage of stories on this feat, sometimes it is the numbers that are most overwhelming.  Consider the top 25 in all-time coaching wins at the Division I level:

  1. Coach K, 903 (and counting)
  2. Knight, 902
  3. Dean Smith, 879
  4. Adolph Rupp, 876
  5. Jim Boeheim, 856 (and counting)
  6. Jim Calhoun, 855 (and counting)
  7. Jim Phelan, 830
  8. Eddie Sutton, 804
  9. Lefty Driesell, 786
  10. Lute Olson, 780
  11. Lou Henson, 779
  12. Henry Iba, 764
  13. Edgar Diddle, 759
  14. Phog Allen, 746
  15. Jerry Tarkanian, 729
  16. Norm Stewart, 728
  17. Ray Meyer, 724
  18. Don Haskins, 719
  19. Bob Huggins, 691 (and counting)
  20. Denny Crum, 675
  21. Gary Williams, 668
  22. John Wooden, 664
  23. Roy Williams, 643 (and counting)
  24. Billy Tubbs, 641
  25. Hugh Durham, 633

Just look at those names.  And yet the most amazing thing about this list is the number of coaches who have arenas named after them.  These are coaching icons.  And all of them are looking up to Coach K tonight.

Well, all but one of them were looking up to Coach K last week too.  But tonight, even Bob Knight must look up.

It is also interesting how many of those names Coach K had to battle with, such as the legendary games against Dean Smith (#3) and Roy Williams (#23) of North Carolina.  The games against Lefty Driesell (#9) and Gary Williams (#21) in Duke-Maryland matchups.  The March games against Jerry Tarkanian (#15) and the Runnin’ Rebels of UNLV.  A lot of those 903 wins were big wins.

But The Confidential is still most impressed by a different statistic.  As the head coach of Army, Coach K was 73-59, including a 9-17 season in 1979-1980.  Duke still hired him for the 1980-1981 season.  And, after three seasons at Duke, Coach K’s record was still a disappointing 38-47.  That means that after his eight first seasons as a coach, his overall record was 111-106.  That’s a career-ending record in today’s game.  With a fully functioning blogosphere, Coach K might not have survived at Army, much less Duke.

As we know, Duke stuck with him.  802 more wins later, it can be called a “good” decision.  Which is an understatement along the lines of calling the Pacific Ocean “moist.”  It was a great decision!

Today’s win is an amazing accomplishment.  Congratulations to Coach K, his family, and Duke nation!

UPDATE: Here is a great link for more information on the early years at Duke for Coach K: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/16131537/coach-ks-path-to-greatness-cleared-by-patient-ad-butters

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , ,
15 Nov 2011
1 Comment

Future ACC Member Syracuse Off to HOT Basketball Start

Syracuse basketball is off to a sizzling hot start in 2011-2012.  Although it is unknown when Syracuse will formally join the ACC, it is clear that it is good for most of the ACC that it is not this year.  While North Carolina has gotten an abundance of attention, including here, this Syracuse team is looking to be quite special in its own regard.  While North Carolina has an outstanding quartet of players, Syracuse is as deep as it has ever been.  Game three for Syracuse was more of the same, as the Orange rolled over Albany 98-74.

Here is the most impressive stat about the win over Albany.  Syracuse’s starting five scored 49 points.  Syracuse’s first five of the bench scored 49 points.

The preseason expectations were that veterans Kris Joseph, Brandon Triche, and Scoop Jardine would be the key to the season.  Against Albany, Joseph did by scoring 19 points in 25 minutes.  But Syracuse got a combined 13 points in 35 minutes from its starting backcourt and still ran away with this game. This is not a fluke either.  Although there is no serious debate about who should be starting for Syracuse right now, the bottom line is that James Southerland, CJ Fair, and Dion Waiters would be starting for many teams across college basketball.  In fact, going into the Albany game, these were three of Syracuse’s five best scorers on the season.  These three may not be starting games, but they are going to be finishing a lot of them.

Of course, what should really excite Syracuse fans is that this kind of depth is conducive to the team playing smarter basketball than the past several seasons.  When you go 6 or 7 deep, there is no room to take out a key player for a “teaching moment.”  In past seasons, careless play would get a stare from Jim Boeheim.  Not a fun thing to endure, but something that can be avoided by playing focused defense and hoping that he would forget about it by the next timeout.  This year, a careless play will land anyone on the bench.  There is no room for mental mistakes anymore.

And what must really have Syracuse fans ecstatic is that this kind of depth will allow Syracuse to play some full court press defense.  Against Albany, Syracuse did this for a large chunk of the first half.  This both dictated tempo and tired down Albany. If Syracuse can use that against some of the more methodical teams on its schedule, this will be a great weapon for Boeheim.  The season is still very young, but it is apparent that this Syracuse team is for real.

The question for ACC fans is this.  How great would it have been to have Syracuse, Pitt, Duke, and North Carolina all mixing it up this year?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , ,
15 Nov 2011
1 Comment

ACC is One of Three Conferences Without a Loss in 2011-2012

So far during this early basketball season, the Atlantic Coast Conference is undefeated!  While it obviously is just a matter of time before this streak ends, it is notable and pride evoking that the current ACC schools are an impressive 18-0.  Add in the undefeated starts by Syracuse and Pittsburgh, and the league record swells to 22-0!

With more than 30 basketball conferences, you might think that a lot of conferences are in the ACC’s position this early in the season.  You would be wrong. With the first few days of the season completed, the ACC is one of just three conferences whose teams have yet to lose.

The Big 12 is undefeated at 14-0.  However, new member West Virginia has suffered a loss.  So, if we are looking at future membership, the Big 12 would be eliminated.  #2 Kentucky plays #12 Kansas tonight, so this is a streak that may end very soon.  The Midwestern Conference is the only other conference that is undefeated.  It’s 8 teams are a combined 13-0. San Diego State plays #11 today, so this is another streak that may be over very soon.

To be fair, if we are not counting West Virginia as a Big East school, that means the Big East would be undefeated at 23-0 (excluding West Virginia, Syracuse, and Pitt).  Given that most observers believe that the Big East and the ACC volley back and forth as the best basketball conference, none of this is surprising.

As for keeping that streak going, there are several important games today:

  • Duke hosts Michigan State.  As you already know, Mike Krzyzewski is searching for win #903 tonight.  As is always the case, Michigan State’s Tom Izzo likes to beat up his team in November.  Following the Carrier Classic with a game at Duke is certainly a great way to do that.  Unlike most seasons, however, Michigan State follows this game up with a series of games against directional schools.  In any event, the big picture is Coach K and his pursuit of the all-time record for wins.  Should be an outstanding environment and a great game.
  • Miami hosts Rutgers in a game between 1-0 schools.  With Jim Larranaga looking to put Miami on the map, and Rutgers’ Mike Rice looking to do for basketball what Greg Schiano has done for football, do not overlook this game.  These two teams could be March participants soon, even if not this year.
  • Virginia Tech’s annual effort to be a bubble team can take a step in the right direction by holding off Isaiah Thomas and Florida International.
  • Syracuse hosts Albany as Jim Boeheim tries to keep within 50 of Coach K on the win front.

While it is of no lasting consequence, it would be a nice feather in the cap for the ACC to be that last undefeated conference.

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , ,
15 Nov 2011
2 Comments

ACC Bowl Projections

With the 2011 football season coming to a close, the time is ripe to predict where the various ACC teams are headed for bowl purposes.  Here are The Confidential’s projections as of November 15, 2011:

ACC #1 goes to the Orange Bowl (BCS)-Miami, Florida to face another BCS team on January 4, 2012.

Last Year’s Matchup: Stanford 40, Virginia Tech 12

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Clemson vs. West Virginia. 

Explanation: Clemson has already defeated Virginia Tech once.  At Virginia Tech.  While the knee-jerk reaction is to think that Virginia Tech gets the better of Clemson a second-time around, The Confidential does not believe that Virginia Tech has the offense to keep up with Clemson.  As for the Big East Champion, Cincinnati without Zach Collaros is a lot different than Cincinnati with him.  They may not lose out, but they will lose one or two.  West Virginia is primed to step in–and they have the head-to-head edge over Rutgers.

 

ACC #2 goes to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl-Atlanta, Georgia to face the SEC #5 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Florida State 26, South Carolina 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia Tech vs. Georgia.   

 

ACC #3 goes to the Champ Sports Bowl-Orlando, Florida to face Big East #2 on December 29, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina State 23, West Virginia 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Florida State v Notre Dame (eligible to take Big East spot here once every four years)

 

ACC #4 goes to the Sun Bowl- El Paso, Texas to face Pac-12 #4 on December 31, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Notre Dame 33, Miami 17

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Georgia Tech v Arizona State.

ACC #5 goes to the Belk Bowl-Charlotte, North Carolina to face Big East #3 on December 27, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: South Florida 31, Clemson 26

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Virginia v Louisville.

 

ACC #6 goes to the Music City Bowl-Nashville, Tennessee to face SEC #7 on December 30, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: North Carolina 30, Tennessee 27

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Wake Forest v Vanderbilt

 

ACC #7 goes to the Independence Bowl-Shreveport, Louisiana to face MWC #3 on December 26, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Air Force 14, Georgia Tech 7

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: North Carolina v San Diego State

 

ACC #8 goes to the Military Bowl-Washington, DC, to face Navy on December 28, 2011.

Last Year’s Matchup: Maryland 51, East Carolina 20

Projected 2011-2012 Matchup: Miami v Cincinnati (Navy fails to qualify)

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
14 Nov 2011

The Confidential College Basketball Top 25: November 14, 2011

With college basketball heating up, here is The Confidential’s Top 25  as of November 14, 2011

1.  North Carolina–best quartet of players in the country.

2. Ohio State–the best PLAYER in the country.

3. Kentucky–another absurd recruiting class.

4. Syracuse–as deep as any team Jim Boeheim has ever had.

5. UConn–Lamb is great, but growing paints in the post-Walker era.

6. Duke–Unimpressive against Belmont, better against Presbyterian.

7. Florida–solid returning cast.

8. Pittsburgh–always tough, literally and figuratively.

9. Memphis–best year post-Calipari?  Undoubtedly.

10. Louisville–already an injury.

11. Wisconsin

12. Kansas

13. Baylor

14. Xavier

15. Arizona

16. Michigan

17. Vanderbilt

18. Alabama

19. Cincinnati

20. Marquette

21.  Texas A&M

22. California

23. Florida State.

24. Gonzaga

25. Michigan State

If we are nuts, feel free to tell us.  Sadly, the Internet will store this for future mocking down the road.  But that’s how we see it, as of today.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , ,
14 Nov 2011

ACC Football Rankings: November 14, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 14, 2011:

1.  Clemson–At 9-1 with a victory over Wake Forest, Clemson guaranteed itself a spot in the conference championship game.  From here, Clemson needs to win out to show that it deserves the top 10 ranking.  The conference NEEDS Clemson at 11-1.

2. Virginia Tech–In beating Georgia Tech, Va Tech has solidified itself of #2.  With games remaining against talented North Carolina and rival/rolling Virginia, it will not be easy for the Hokies to finish 11-1.  The dream matchup of 11-1 Clemson vs. 11-1 Va Tech is still alive though.  While a rematch, this would capture attention.

3. Georgia Tech–Of the three 7-3 teams, The Confidential will give Georgia Tech the nod here.  It beat Clemson… giving it the best win of the bunch.  While Virginia has the head-to-head advantage, Virginia also has the head scratching losses to NC State and Southern Mississippi.

4. Florida State–This young team is rolling now.  With the 3-game losing streak a mere blip in the rear-view mirror, these kids appear to be coming together at the right time.  Head-to-head matchup with Virginia will tell us a lot.

5. Virginia–At 7-3, Virginia could fairly be ranked #3 or #4 here.  But The Confidential will require Virginia to prove it on the field first.  As noted above, the win over Georgia Tech is offset by some poor losses.  A win over Florida State would vault them to #3.

6. Miami–held their own against a hot Florida State team.  On the road.  While an argument could be made for North Carolina here, Miami showed that it belonged here by beating North Carolina on the road.

7. North Carolina– At 6-4, North Carolina gets a huge test against Virginia Tech this week.  Winning at the Hokies is rarely expected, but the Tarheels need to show that they can compete to maintain this slot.

8.  Wake Forest– So many close games for Wake Forest.  Playing Clemson to the wire is just another example of same.

9.  Syracuse–after three losses in a row, it is tempting to drop Syracuse to double-digits.  However, they still have wins over West Virginia and Wake Forest.  The latter is something that North Carolina State could not do.  A week off before taking on Cincinnati.

10.  North Carolina State– Losing to Boston College pretty much sums up this enigma of a team.  With Maryland coming up after the Clemson game, NC State can still get bowl eligible.

11. Pittsburgh— Beating Louisville to get to 5-5 made it tempting to slide Pittsburgh up a few notches.  With games @ West Virginia and hosting Syracuse to finish the regular season, this will be resolved on the field.

12.  Duke—Played Virginia tough before fading.  The Blue Devils get the edge over Boston College based on the head-to-head.

13. Boston College–the win over NC State provided some good news for the fan base.  Upcoming games against Notre Dame and Miami may not make continued good news a safe bet.

14. Maryland- as if it couldn’t get worse, the drubbing by Notre Dame also featured a season-ending injury to Danny O’Brien.  At 2-8, it is difficult to see this team winning either of its two remaining games–both of which are on the road.

What do you think?  Do we have it right?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
13 Nov 2011
1 Comment

North Carolina Goes to 2-0

Perhaps you were wondering whether the 2011-2012 North Carolina Tarheels could win an indoor game?   The answer to this silly question is “yes.”  Admittedly, today’s win over North Carolina-Asheville tells the country absolutely nothing.  At least nothing it did not already know.  Frankly, even if they had lost, that would not have caused anyone to move them out of their Final Four projections.

But just look what they overcame.  Less than 48 hours after playing a first-of-its-kind game on an aircraft carrier… outdoors… in the twilight… with no student section… with the President making a pregame speech and watching… against physical Michigan State… they hopped a plane and played a road game against North Carolina-Asheville.  Had the Tarheels lost, there would have been a built excuses.  But they won.

The easy post-game review is to credit Harrison Barnes, Tyler Zeller, and John Henson for scoring 64 of the 91 points.  But take a look at what Kendall Marshall did.  15 assists!  All too often, talented teams suffocate under the pressure of keeping everyone happy.  If Marshall is willing to keep the big 3 happy by dishing the ball, that will only add to the dangerousness of this team.

If someone wants to nitpick, they can point out that Marshall had all but one of the team assists.  Or that the team had 17 turnovers against an overmatched foe.  But most elite teams don’t even play road games against this type of foe, so The Confidential is more inclined to simply give credit where it is due.

What do you think–is there ANY reason for North Carolina to not be #1 in the country right now?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , ,

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