The Confidential

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Sweet Sixteen: Oregon vs. Louisville, LukeRuss Oil Stadium

(Credits: Disney/University of Louisville)

(Credits: Disney/University of Louisville)

When the University of Louisville takes the court to face the Oregon Ducks in the Sweet Sixteen in Indianapolis on Friday, there will be much speculation as to whether the Cardinals can extend their tournament domination by beating up on the Ducks like they did the Aggies and Rams.

Of course, the team Rick Pitino & Co. will face is unlike the previous foes in rounds two and three; Oregon hails from a power conference whereas NC A&T and Colorado State hail from conferences which are not at the top of the college basketball food chain.

The Cardinals have made their way to the Sweet Sixteen by beating their opponents by an average of 28.5 points and shooting over 56 percent from the field.  The Cardinals shot better from the charity stripe against Colorado State and scored 24 points off 20 Ram turnovers.

Enter the Ducks of Eugene.  After defeating ranked UCLA in the PAC-12 conference title game, Oregon beat its first two opponents by 13 points (Oklahoma State) and 14 points (Saint Louis) by shooting over 45 percent from the field.  One disparity jumps out when studying the statistics from the Ducks’ victories thus far – they shot 38 percent from behind the arc versus OK State and 72 percent against Saint Louis.  This inconsistency from three-point range could murk the waters in the Round of 32.

However, when the casual observer looks further into both teams’ overall shooting percentages this season, the teams appear comparable.  Louisville is shooting 44.5 percent from field goal range and Oregon is averaging 44.7 percent.  Louisville is averaging 33.17 percent from behind the arc and Oregon is shooting 33.27 percent.

In a game where offensive statistics can tell a story of two similar teams, one must dig deeper to find a true winner on paper.

Horses and Hoops prediction: this game will come down to turnovers.  Louisville committed 456 turnovers (12.6 per game) on the whole while Oregon turned the ball over 543 times (15 per game).

Guard play and defensive pressure will play pivotal roles in this matchup.  With Louisville’s tendency to force more turnovers and to score lots of points off those errors, I expect the Cardinals to keep up the intensity and stifle the Oregon offense.  Besides, the Big East was strides better than the PAC-12 in the 2012-13 season and these figures must be viewed in light of conference competition and defense.

My analysis hinges upon there being no hiccups or surprise injuries (knock on wood) in Friday’s matchup at 7:15 p.m. at Lucas Oil Stadium.  Hopefully, Russ Arena’s furor and Luke Hancock’s consistency will travel with the Cardinals to Indianapolis and descend with the same intensity to create a LukeRuss Oil Stadium all clad in red.

Sorry Duke Fans, Collins to Northwestern

Northwestern has issued a press release confirming the hiring of Duke’s Chris Collins.  Sorry Blue Devils, fans.  Although I am sure you can easily reload with other former alums.  Greg Paulus, anyone?

http://www.nusports.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/032713aac.html?hq_e=el&hq_m=449343&hq_l=14&hq_v=b663d3491d

 

NCAA Tournament- Sweet Sixteen Conference Breakdown

It’s been a couple days  since the Round of 32. The dust has settled, and a little under a quarter of the field of 68 still remain. Teams have gone home.  Careers have ended. And yet, 16 teams are still alive. Let’s check back in on the six power conferences and see how they stack up.

ACC

Tournament Teams (4)- Duke, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina State

Remaining Tournament Teams (2)- Duke, Miami

Verdict- A lot of question marks remain for the conference after a second round that didn’t go exactly as planned. North Carolina blew an 11-point lead against rival Kansas in what amounted to a home game for the Jayhawks. The Lawrence, Kansas campus lies just minutes from Kansas City and the very vocal, and very partisan crowd, let the overmatched and undersized UNC team know it. North Carolina simply didn’t have the strength inside to maintain their lead once Kansas got back on track. Yet, despite an early exit, the most painful part of the season for Tar Heel fans begins now- who stays and who goes? The decisions of sophomores James Michael McAdoo, PJ Hairston, and junior Reggie Bullock, could very well determine whether the team takes a step forward, or backward next year. Since none of the players are seen as first-round locks, most experts, Coach Roy Williams included, see a much stronger and more veteran Tar Heel team taking the court next year.

But what North Carolina has to gain, Duke and Miami have to lose. How far can these veteran teams go before their seasons end and they lose the leadership of players like Mason Plumlee, Ryan Kelly and Kenny Kadji? Both senior-laden teams put together solid, yet unimpressive wins over inferior opponents. They face tougher competition in the Sweet Sixteen in a strong Michigan State team (Duke), and a Marquette team that keeps on winning even when it shouldn’t. News of out Coral Gables today is not encouraging for the Hurricanes, who will be missing floor-swallowing big-man Reggie Johnson, who had a procedure done and did not travel with the team. How they can adjust without him will say a lot about their chances to move on.

Big 12

Tournament Teams (5)- Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Kansas

Remaining Tournament Teams (1)- Kansas

Verdict- As usual, Kansas continues to carry the banner for the Big 12 Conference. After an impressive comeback win over North Carolina, the Jayhawks move on to face the best team that Michigan has had since the Fab Five of the early nineties. A team, that ironically, none of the current players would remember. Needless to say, Kansas has their work cut out for them to match the energy of Michigan’s Trey Burke. But don’t count out Bill Self’s team just yet. It isn’t easy to win a national championship, or 300 games at one school, but as of Sunday, Self has done both. The x-factor will be how the Jayhawks can handle being away from the home environment that the early rounds in Kansas City gave them.

Big East

Tournament Teams (8)- Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, Syracuse, Marquette

Remaining Tournament Teams (3)- Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette

Verdict- Marquette survived again and future ACC members Louisville and Syracuse moved on. That seems to be the story of the 2013 NCAA Tournament for the Big East. But how many times can the Golden Eagles escape elimination? To put things in perspective, Marquette, a seminal tournament team, and the collegiate home of Dwyane  Wade, has won both of their tournament games by a total of 3 points. The (regular) Eagles of Florida Gulf Coast have won their first two round games by a total of 20 points in their first NCAA Tournament appearance. If the Miami Hurricanes are able to play to their full potential this weekend, except to see the Golden Eagles packing their bags when the final buzzer sounds. As for Louisville, a favorable matchup with a surprising Oregon team should leave them on-guard, but confident for another appearance in the Elite Eight. Syracuse must contain Cody Zeller, the “Big Handsome,” and Victor Oladipo if they want to move past the Hoosiers.

 Big Ten

Tournament Teams (7)- Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois

Remaining Tournament Teams (4)- Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Indiana

 Verdict- The Big Ten currently leads all BCS conferences with 57% of its eligible teams still alive in the Big Dance (compared to 50% for the ACC, 20% for the Big 12, 37.5% for the Big East, 40% for the Pac-12 and 33% for the SEC). Yet, slowly, but surely, their dominance has chipped away. Difficult matchups with top teams Duke (#2 seed), Kansas (#1 seed) and Syracuse (#4 seed- should have been seeded above Marquette) make the performance of the conference in the Sweet Sixteen a crucial part in determining whether the  league is a contender, or over-hyped pretender. Ohio State also can’t look past an Arizona team that will come out strong after rolling-over inferior opposition. The most interesting development to come out of the Midwest? The firing of Minnesota Coach Tubby Smith. While, Smith never got the job done like he did during his championship-winning tenure at Kentucky, it’s certainly curious to wonder whether the Golden Gophers think they can bring someone better to the great white north. The firing of Seth Greenberg at Virginia Tech, a perennial bubble coach, led to numerous transfers, and a plummet in the standings at the worst possible time. Will Minnesota bounce back, or fall down?

 Pac-12

Tournament Teams (5)- Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, California, Colorado

Remaining Tournament Teams (2)- Oregon,  Arizona

Verdict- The Confidential’s prediction of the firing of Ben Howland became prophetic when his departure from UCLA was announced earlier this week. While the change wasn’t surprising (there have been strange rumblings surrounding the program for years), the rejections by VCU’s Shaka Smart and Butler’s Brad Stephens for the head coaching position, may have come as a shock to Bruins fans. As Oregon continues to overachieve, and Arizona faces its first truly tough matchup of the tournament, the news  out of Westwood remains the most compelling. Will current NC State coach Mark Gottfried, who has numerous UCLA ties, make his way across the country next season? Only he knows. But if current juniors CJ Leslie and Lorenzo Brown follow through with rumored plans to enter the NBA Draft, and UCLA offers Gottfried the job, you can bet that he won’t be wearing red again anytime soon.

 SEC

Tournament Teams (3) – Missouri, Ole Miss, Florida, Kentucky

Remaining Tournament Teams (1)- Florida

Verdict- In the end, Ole Miss’ surprising season came to an end at the hand of another unexpected tournament team, First Four survivor La Salle.  Marshall Henderson did his best to keep the Rebels alive, but it wasn’t enough, as Florida became the only SEC team remaining at the end of the Round of 32. The Gators face an interesting in-state matchup with tournament darling, Florida Gulf Coast, who has cruised through the first two rounds after making the field for the first time. While they have the firepower to move on to the Elite Eight, the Gators have to remember that this Eagles team beat another in-state rival, fellow Sweet Sixteen team, Miami, earlier this season. Can Florida save the reputation of the conference, in a way that a floundering Kentucky team could not? Or will it just be another stop in a surprising run by everyone’s new favorite Cinderella.

While the excitement of the first four days has ended, and games cannot be found on TV all-day everyday anymore, intriguing third round matchups create an exciting and potentially unpredictable Sweet Sixteen. It is almost impossible to predict who will be left standing after this weekend, and after all, who would want to? With this year, it’s just more fun to go along for the ride.

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Ranking College Basketball Programs in Florida

OK, unless you have been living under a particularly large rock, you know that Florida Gulf Coast beat Georgetown (i.e. the team picked by this author to win a bracket or two) and then beat San Diego State to make it to the Sweet 16.  You also know that the FGCU’s coach’s wife was a supermodel.  Or is.  Not sure if that is like being President, where you always get to call yourself a supermodel.  So, yeah, quite a story!  But, with FGCU beating Miami and playing Florida this week in the Sweet 16, how do YOU rank the Florida college basketball programs?

First, let’s identify all the schools by conference:

  • ACC: Florida State, Miami
  • Atlantic Sun: FGC, Stetson, Jacksonville, North Florida
  • Big East (old): South Florida
  • Conference USA: Central Florida
  • MEAC: Bethune-Cookman, Florida A&M
  • SEC: Florida
  • Sun Belt: Florida Atlantic, Florida International

Second, let’s cull the list to eliminate those who have never made the big dance: Bethune Cookman, Stetson, and North Florida.  That reduces things to 10 teams.

Third, let’s rank the remaining 10 teams:

  1. Florida.  4 Final Fours.  2 National Championships.  A 70% winning percentage in NCAA tournament games.  Conference championships!  Very easy selection.
  2. Florida State.  The Seminoles have been invited to 10 Big Dances.  The 10-10 record means an average of at least one win per invite.  Not too shabby.  Had a nice ACC run last year too.
  3. Miami.  In the last 33 years, Miami has been invited to 5 NCAA tournaments, with a record of 4-5 (and counting).
  4. South Florida.  The USF Bulls have only been invited to 3 NCAA tournaments, and are 2-3 overall.  Struggling to get anywhere in the loaded Big East.
  5. Florida Gulf Coast.  The Eagles have never lost in the NCAA tournament!  Who can top that?  Have to put these guys at #5 already.
  6. Florida A&M.  With a 1-3 record in their 3 appearances, Florida A&M nestles right in behind FGC.
  7. Central Florida has had four one-and-dones in the NCAA tournament.  Still looking for that first win in March Madness though.  Gotta put them below the Eagles.
  8. Florida Atlantic.  One tournament appearance, about a dozen years ago.  Yawn.
  9. Florida International.  Coached by Richard Pitino, the last and only NCAA tournament appearance was in 1995.
  10. Jacksonville State.  Like the two schools above them, they had a one and done, albeit in 1986.

As you can see, Florida Gulf Coast is already #5 on the list of NCAA tournament wins.  An argument could be made that they are now the #4 program in the state.  Only a matter of time before conference realignment turns its eye towards these guys.  Conference USA?

What do you think?  Is too much credit being given for this one year?  Too little?

Confidential Bracket: Update 3/25/13

Who is in the running for the prize?  At the Sweet Sixteen, here is the top 25:

Round
Rank
Bracket
1
2
3
4
Semis
Finals
Bonus Pts
Total Pts
1
WinnersBracket
48 39 Louisville 28 115
2
Florida State
50 30 Kansas 24 104
3
TheEssentialsOfCool.com
48 30 Louisville 20 98
4
Boeheimian Rhapsody
50 27 Syracuse 20 97
5
KC’s Bracket
46 33 Louisville 16 95
6
LenVILLE
48 30 Louisville 16 94
6
Cuse Stormin the ACC
48 30 Syracuse 16 94
8
Goop’s Bracket
40 33 Miami (FL) 20 93
9
Bye Bye Big East
46 33 Georgetown 12 91
10
Rebecca’s Dandy Bracket
40 30 Duke 16 86
10
win prizes
40 30 Gonzaga 16 86
10
BracketBuster.
46 24 Kansas 16 86
10
Boeheims possible farewell
44 30 Syracuse 12 86
14
Will Bonn’s Bracket
42 27 Indiana 16 85
15
Da Cuseman Cometh
42 30 Syracuse 12 84
16
Maverick
44 30 Louisville 8 82
17
Cards 80 86 13?
44 21 Louisville 12 77
18
My Legit Bracket
42 33 Louisville 0 75
18
BeerThirty
40 27 Miami (FL) 8 75
18
Allen’s Bracket
40 27 Louisville 8 75
18
Otto the Great and Powerful
42 33 Louisville 0 75
22
KAOS
36 30 Georgetown 8 74
23
mikemab wolf
42 27 Ohio St. 4 73
23
*Commander Caffrey
38 27 Indiana 8 73
25
Mr. Tar Heel
36 24 Saint Louis 8 68

Confidential Bracket: Update 3/24/13

Who is in the running for the prize?  With a long way to go (the now-desperate rationalization of a team at the bottom).

Here is the top 25:

1
WinnersBracket
48 21 Louisville 28 97
2
Florida State
50 18 Kansas 24 92
3
TheEssentialsOfCool.com
48 15 Louisville 20 83
4
LenVILLE
48 18 Louisville 16 82
5
KC’s Bracket
46 18 Louisville 16 80
6
Boeheimian Rhapsody
50 9 Syracuse 20 79
7
Cuse Stormin the ACC
48 12 Syracuse 16 76
8
Goop’s Bracket
40 15 Miami (FL) 20 75
9
Bye Bye Big East
46 15 Georgetown 12 73
10
Cards 80 86 13?
44 15 Louisville 12 71
10
Rebecca’s Dandy Bracket
40 15 Duke 16 71
10
BracketBuster.
46 9 Kansas 16 71
13
Will Bonn’s Bracket
42 12 Indiana 16 70
14
Da Cuseman Cometh
42 15 Syracuse 12 69
15
win prizes
40 12 Gonzaga 16 68
15
Boeheims possible farewell
44 12 Syracuse 12 68
17
Maverick
44 15 Louisville 8 67
18
Allen’s Bracket
40 12 Louisville 8 60
19
mikemab wolf
42 12 Ohio St. 4 58
20
My Legit Bracket
42 15 Louisville 0 57
20
BeerThirty
40 9 Miami (FL) 8 57
20
Otto the Great and Powerful
42 15 Louisville 0 57
23
KAOS
36 12 Georgetown 8 56
24
*Commander Caffrey
38 9 Indiana 8 55
25
Mr. Tar Heel
36 9 Saint Louis 8 53

Confidential Bracket: Update 3/23/13

Who is in the running for the prize?  With a long way to go (the rationalization of a team at the bottom), here is the top 25:

1
Florida State
50 Kansas 24 74
2
Boeheimian Rhapsody
50 Syracuse 20 70
3
WinnersBracket
48 Louisville 20 68
4
TheEssentialsOfCool.com
48 Louisville 16 64
4
Cuse Stormin the ACC
48 Syracuse 16 64
6
BracketBuster.
46 Kansas 16 62
7
LenVILLE
48 Louisville 12 60
8
KC’s Bracket
46 Louisville 12 58
8
Will Bonn’s Bracket
42 Indiana 16 58
8
Bye Bye Big East
46 Georgetown 12 58
11
Cards 80 86 13?
44 Louisville 12 56
11
Goop’s Bracket
40 Miami (FL) 16 56
11
Rebecca’s Dandy Bracket
40 Duke 16 56
11
win prizes
40 Gonzaga 16 56
11
Boeheims possible farewell
44 Syracuse 12 56
16
Da Cuseman Cometh
42 Syracuse 12 54
17
Maverick
44 Louisville 8 52
18
BeerThirty
40 Miami (FL) 8 48
18
Allen’s Bracket
40 Louisville 8 48
20
mikemab wolf
42 Ohio St. 4 46
20
*Commander Caffrey
38 Indiana 8 46
22
KAOS
36 Georgetown 8 44
22
Mr. Tar Heel
36 Saint Louis 8 44
24
My Legit Bracket
42 Louisville 0 42
24
Otto the Great and Powerful
42 Louisville 0 42

NCAA Tournament- Round of 32 Conference Breakdown

Now that the real first round of the tournament is done (we won’t count the First Four), it’s time to see how each power conference is doing. While we all love the Cinderellas of the A-10, we’re going to focus on the big guys for now. As usual, the Big East has had a tough first two days.

ACC

Tournament Teams (4)- Duke, Miami, North Carolina, North Carolina State

Remaining Tournament Teams (3)- Duke, Miami, North Carolina

Verdict- NC State didn’t live up to the hype this year. With so much talent returning, and a highly heralded recruiting class in tow, the Wolfpack were expected to challenge for the ACC title this season. Instead, they stumbled to the finish and played on Thursday in the conference tournament. Fittingly, they lost in the first round of the NCAAs too. Duke and Miami looked strong in convincing first-round wins, while North Carolina can only hope to become more consistent after it gave up a 20-point lead against Villanova. Next up, its tournament nemesis, Kansas.

Big 12

Tournament Teams (5)- Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma, Kansas

Remaining Tournament Teams (3)- Iowa State, Kansas

Verdict- The first round wasn’t awful, but it wasn’t as good as it should have been for the Big 12. Marcus Smart and the Oklahoma State Cowboys looked lost against an Oregon Ducks team that, despite its decent 26-8 record, wasn’t expected to be much of a force in the tournament. Kansas State suffered a disappointing loss to La Salle, while Oklahoma was outmatched by San Diego State from the stronger Mountain West. All eyes will be on Kansas City as the Jayhawks look to continue their hot streak against former coach Roy Williams and the Tar Heels.

Big East

Tournament Teams (8)- Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, Villanova, Georgetown, Syracuse, Marquette

Remaining Tournament Teams (3)- Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette

Verdict- It’s been another bad tournament for the Big East, which has had very little success in the first round the past few years. Marquette barely squeaked by Davidson, Georgetown lost to tournament first-timer Florida Gulf Coast, Cincinnati couldn’t hold on against Creighton and Villanova’s comeback just wasn’t enough against North Carolina. In the last year of its current configuration, the old Big East went out in typical fashion. The lone bright spots were wins by future ACC members Louisville and Syracuse.

Big Ten

Tournament Teams (7)- Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois

Remaining Tournament Teams (6)- Michigan State, Ohio State, Michigan, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois

Verdict- The Big Ten has lived up to the hype so far, having virtually no trouble with its first slate of games. Wisconsin’s early exit came at the hands of Marshall Henderson and a hot Ole Miss team who was one three #12 seeds to beat a #5 seed this year.

Pac-12

Tournament Teams (5)- Oregon, Arizona, UCLA, California, Colorado

Remaining Tournament Teams (3)- Oregon, Arizona, California

Verdict- If you had told me at the start of the season that UCLA would lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, I would have said you were crazy. Not with Shabazz. Not when they’re starting to turn things around. But the University of Carolina at Los Angeles (See Larry Drew, David Wear, Travis Wear) has just been too inconsistent, despite a late season surge. Coach Ben Howland’s place on the hot seat doesn’t look like it’s going to change anytime soon…unless he’s fired.

SEC

Tournament Teams (3) – Missouri, Ole Miss, Florida, Kentucky

Remaining Tournament Teams (2)- Ole Miss, Florida

Verdict- Where’s Kentucky? The year’s worst (major) basketball conference finished the first round almost exactly as predicted. Missouri lost early and Florida, predictably, blew out their opponent. But Ole Miss’s stunning upset of Wisconsin has the Big Ten on the clock.

So far, the 2013 NCAA Tournament has been one of the most exciting in recent years. From stunning upsets by tournament first-timers, to old-fashioned brawlers, it’s been a perfect way to end an unpredictable season. With five current, or future, ACC teams still in the mix, the conference is in a prime position to bring home another title to college basketball’s greatest conference.

State of the Pack: Tournament Postmortem

One and done.  The saddest words in NCAA Basketball fandom.

This year, they apply to the Wolfpack.  Yes, I am going to once more whine about What Went Wrong, but first the all-important Disclaimer:

No disrespect intended to the Temple Owls.  They are a very good team and played an excellent game.  Hey, they were a Nine seed; can we really be surprised that they upset an Eight?  Not me, folks; I had them to win this one in my bracket.  It’s one of the few things that are going right there, and the one thing I wanted to be wrong about.

As usual, the Pack came out with an air of entitlement, as if they could just walk out there and would be awarded victory.  They didn’t realize until they were down 18 that this was a bad plan.  When they did, they went to the usual Plan B:  Scott Wood.

Unfortunately, Temple remembered to guard Wood, and he was stifled until late in the 2nd.  Meanwhile, the Owls had a three-point threat of their own in Jake O’Brien, and he dropped 4 of 6 from behind the arc for 12 of his 18 pts.  State rarely got a hand up against him.  Frankly, it seems the Pack had one player who played defense with any consistency all year, that being Richard Howell.

Just when all seemed lost, State started to rally.  Wood began to hit, starting with a couple of free throws followed by threes on two successive possesions. But it was late in the second half by then.  Still, Pack nation had new hope.

Things really got interesting when the lead was cut to two on a Lorenzo Brown three-changed-to-two with two seconds left (no gripe though, his foot was clearly on the line per the replay).  But Temple guard Khalif Wyatt would have none of it.  When he was fouled on the next possession, he calmly sank two free throws to bury the Pack.  Wyatt finished with 31 points to lead all scorers, while Lorenzo Brown led State with 22.

In addition to the forementioned problems, State could not buy a free throw of their own.  This had been a season-long problem as well, and is inexcusable.  Only Wood gets a pass on this one; the rest of the team should spend the entire summer shooting free throws.

So goes another season, and it is not likely anyone will be picking State to win the conference next year.  That won’t be a bad thing, as we seem to fare better when we can sneak up on people.  Except for 1974, and David Thompson isn’t coming back.

So what now?  I suggest the usual:  watch and root for (or against, if you are one of those nobody-but-us fans)  Carolina, Miami and yes, even Duke.  Enjoy the upsets.  Writhe in pain as your bracket inevitably crumbles (or maybe that’s just me).

Football is coming.  And the expectations will be close to zero.

Just the way we like it.

ESPN’s Big Monday (UPDATE)

UPDATE:  Our guest writer just pointed out that the Miami Herald reported the following:

The ACC says it likely will take the Big East’s 7 p.m. slot on ESPN’s Big Monday next season. The new Big East – including seven Big East defectors, Xavier, Creighton and Butler – is shifting to the new Fox Sports 1, a 24-hour-network that debuts in August, replacing Speed.

So it looks good for the ACC to get the Big Monday slot.  Good news there. 

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