The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

Archive for the category “Conference Realignment”

28 Aug 2012
2 Comments

Realignment News: SEC Looking at Clemson (+ NC State?) & Florida State Willing to Do Anything to Leave ACC

After a quiet several weeks on the conference realignment front, and despite the football season being 2 days away, here come some more rumors.  Specifically, there is scuttlebutt that the SEC will be looking to add Clemson as its 15th team and then invest some time deciding on which team would be the best fit for team #16.  Naturally, with the ever-wandering eye, Florida State is shaving its legs and hiking up its skirt to attract attention from any conference willing to look its way.

First, the SEC motivation appears based on the desire remove the geographical split and create an All-Tigers pod.  Although the conventional wisdom is that Florida State or Virginia Tech would be the logical 16th team due to prowess, the SEC has long coveted entry into the North Carolina market.  So North Carolina State is actually in the lead for the last spot.  Plus, again, it helps make fun pods.  After all, consider these pods, which are so much smoother with North Carolina State:

  • The Tigers pod: LSU, Auburn, Missouri, Clemson
  • The Dogs & Cats pod: Georgia, Mississippi State, Kentucky, North Carolina State
  • The People pod: Texas A&M, Tennessee, Mississippi, Vanderbilt
  • The Potpourri pod: Florida, Alabama, Arkansas, South Carolina

With all the trouble that the SEC has had trying to figure out a balanced schedule with an East-West split without losing so many important traditional rivalries, it looks like the conference is ready to just throw its hands up in the air and use the nicknames to “randomize” the distribution.

Second, Florida State remains eager to find any conference that will take it away from the Inner Circle of Hell Atlantic Coast Conference.  At this point, the Seminoles are willing to do whatever it takes to convince a conference to allow them to spare them the agony of overreacting to things handed down by the conference.  And we mean anything.  These are the only things that can be printed in this blog:

  • Changing its team nickname to the Tigers to try to get in on the Tigers thing that the SEC obviously has going on;
  • Changing its name to East Texas State to get the Longhorns to cease opposing Big XII expansion;
  • Committing major violations to land on probation so that the B1G will feel more comfortable adding them to the mix of its all-sanctioned kings: Nebraska, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan; and
  • Stressing to the “soon-t0-be 65% as rich as the ACC, but also 0% ACC (which is all that matters)” Big East that its basketball team having more success than its football team is a trend that will continue.

To its credit, Florida State is not trying to join the Pac-12.  Although the Florida collegiate system deems its Tampa-university to be “South Florida,” apparently there is SOMEONE in the state who pays a little attention to the map.

Never a dull moment when it comes to real or pretend expansion news.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Non-Serious, Sarcasm and tagged , , , , ,
16 Aug 2012
5 Comments

Big East Contract Negotiations and the ACC

Last week, someone on the Internet reported that the Big East is looking to get $14 to $17 million per team per year in television revenue.  Granted, the Big East is in the catbird seat as the next conference up to market itself.  But to think that the current collection of Big East schools could approach what the ACC is getting is shocking, especially after losing Pitt, Syracuse, West Virginia, and TCU.  If the Big East could land that–and that is a huge IF–what would that mean for the ACC?

First, before we get carried away on what the Big East will get, we should heed the words of Frank the Tank, the Internet’s best blog for discussing conference issues (realignment and business):

Regardless, if there’s any semblance of reason out there, then the truth will likely be somewhere in the middle.  NBC Sports Network effectively needs any type of halfway decent live sports content, so it has a larger incentive to pay a premium to the Big East.  Comcast is NOT a charity, though, as evidenced by the aforementioned Animal Practice interlude to the Closing Ceremonies of the Olympics.  This can’t be emphasized enough: Comcast is going to pay the least amount that they can possibly get away with in order to win the Big East rights.  As a result, that floor is going to be determined by how much interest ESPN and, to a lesser extent, Fox have in the Big East.  If the conference wants to obtain maximum value, then it particularly needs to have ESPN legitimately involved in the bidding process or else Comcast isn’t just going to hand over large rights fees for the hell of it and negotiate against themselves.  In my humble opinion, ESPN isn’t going to want to let NBC Sports Network get the Big East for free, but the guys in Bristol aren’t going to go balls out to retain the Big East, either (and Comcast, who has gone toe-to-toe with ESPN in tough negotiations on many fronts, definitely knows that).  That points to a potential Big East contract that’s in the middle of the high and low figures that have been reported out there – let’s say about $10 million per all-sports school per year and $4 million per non-football school per year.

Plus, the Confidential has always believed that ESPN is genuinely irate that the Big East rejected its offer last year.  It remains to be seen whether ESPN will even allow itself to get into a bidding war with other networks over the Big East.  While Georgetown, Villanova, St. Johns, DePaul and Marquette are situated in nice markets, the lack of a football team renders them somewhat indistinguishable from Atlantic 10 schools.  So it falls on the schools like Louisville, UConn, Cincinnati, Memphis, Temple, and Rutgers to carry the all-sports side of things.  That is not an awful collection of teams, but is it really going to top what the ACC and Big XII can offer in hoops, much less what all conferences can offer in football.  Just not sold on the ratings being there to justify mega-millions.

But if the Big East does land a deal approaching the ACC’s deal, then it is obvious that the ACC is in trouble.  By being locked-in at well below market value, and with conferences like the B1G and Big XII having the ability to negotiate soon, the disparity will be massive.  Seriously, if the Big East is worth $15M per team, the other conferences have to be worth $30M per team.  It will be hard for FSU and other schools to justify being compensated like a Big East team just because the ACC improvidently locked itself in.

And once the first school leaves the ACC, it is not difficult to envision scenarios where there is a greater pillaging of ACC schools by the Big Four conferences (except the Pac-12).  There are no shortage of Internet posts analyzing just how the major conferences would carve up the ACC.  Unfortunately for Syracuse and Pitt, they may have been on the wrong side of this move.  The Big East having the good fortune to market itself at the perfect time might, ironically, be the ACC’s undoing.

Of course, if you are ESPN, you do not want the ACC imploding.  So, again, expect ESPN to make a “take it or leave it” offer to the Big East that will give it a raise, but also keep the Big East from going on the market.  And if the Big East refuses, ESPN will have to just walk away entirely and put its billion dollars elsewhere.  Frankly, that’s a good move.  ESPN does not need to overpay for content.

Maybe the NHL could use that billion dollars?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
11 Jul 2012

Notre Dame, the Orange Bowl, and the ACC

Previously, the Confidential noted that the ACC signed a new deal with the Orange Bowl securing its status within the power structure of college football.  Of course, the most important aspect was that the ACC gets to keep the TV revenue.  The latest word is that Notre Dame is in discussions with the Orange Bowl to make regular appearances.  There is also Internet talk as to whether Notre Dame is considering a relationship with the ACC that would allow several games a year between ACC teams and the Fighting Irish.  This is, again, all good news for the ACC.

First, the decision to pair up Notre Dame with the Orange Bowl makes complete sense.  For the Orange Bowl, a 10-2 Notre Dame team trumps any other ten-win team in the country and most 11 win teams.  Even if Notre Dame is unfairly selected, the buzz alone will be worth the trouble.  People will care, even if it is simply to root against Notre Dame.  For the ACC, having Notre Dame as an opponent makes great sense too.  Notre Dame is located in Indiana, but the heart of its fan base is nationwide and certainly heavy along the Eastern seaboard–locations where the ACC has a presence.  Given that the ACC controls the TV revenue, having a 10-2 Notre Dame in the game is much more lucrative than just about any other conceivable opponent.  For Notre Dame, it once again shows that it can remain fully relevant without the shackles of a full-time conference affiliation.  All it has to do is win 10 games and it is in a lucrative bowl.  And if it does better, it will not be in the Orange Bowl, but playing for a national title.  A classic win-win, albeit a win-win-win.

Second, the ClemsonInsider (www.clemsoninsider.com) has the following interesting snippet posted:

For several months TheClemsonInsider.com has been telling its members that the chances of Notre Dame joining the ACC were much higher than Clemson leaving for the Big 12.  The ACC has been courting the Irish for a long time but those discussions picked up over the past few months as we’ve reported.

TheClemsonInsider.com has now confirmed with sources close to the situation that the discussions have progressed to the point where Presidents from a number of ACC schools are having discussions with Notre Dame to try to finalize a deal.  The ACC Presidents would love for the Irish to join the ACC as a full member, but they are also interested in other alternatives that could help the league.

Having Notre Dame play four games a year against ACC opponents is yet another win-win.  For ACC teams, having Notre Dame visit is always going to be lucrative at the gate and on television.  It is also helpful for scheduling strength.  Further, it prevents the Big 12 landing Notre Dame in a similar relationship.  For Notre Dame, scheduling is going to get more complex in the future–having an agreement with the ACC will allow more flexibility in that regard.  And, given that Notre Dame often plays at least a few ACC teams per year, there is really not that much of a change.

Of course, it remains to be seen how these two discussions work together.  The potential for a rematch in the Orange Bowl could pose some problems.

But, overall, it looks like Notre Dame is warming up to the ACC as a partner in multiple ways.  While Notre Dame as a full-time member would go a long way towards fixing all that ails the ACC, the ACC is going to have to slow dance with Notre Dame for a while.  Hopefully, it works out better for the ACC than it did for the Big East.  Fortunately, the monetary benefit is far greater for the ACC to do so.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Football and tagged , , , , ,
21 Jun 2012

Huge Win for the ACC–Four Team Playoff In College Football on the Horizon?

For most folks who have been fretting over the future of the Atlantic Coast Conference, the monetary situation is scary enough.  But when the SEC and Big XII announced their new bowl, there was legitimate concern that the national championship might arise out of a winner of that game versus the winner of the Rose Bowl.  If so, there would be a mad scramble for teams to get into one of the big four conferences.  The latest news is that the 11 conference commissioners, as well as the Notre Dame athletic director, have agreed to a four-team proposal that will select the best four teams, regardless of conference affiliation.   As always, Frank the Tank has a great update.

To be sure, the university presidents will need to make the final decision.  But it is doubtful that the presidents will decide to reject the commissioners’ suggestion and trigger conference realignment Armageddon.  As previously noted on this blog, it is not even clear that adding teams to the top 4 conferences is financially viable.  A school pretty much needs to be worth $40M-$5OM per year to allow each of the existing conference teams to get a $2M raise through the addition.  And even if some schools are worth that, it is not clear that it is worth diluting the tight-knit, slow-growing conferences that are stable.  This playoff structure gives the presidents an “out” for delaying realignment.

For the ACC, this should eliminate any real concern by the ever-whining Florida State fan base that they cannot be nationally competitive.  It probably will not shut them up, but it should.  If they can just learn how to win, they’ll be fine.  The money is there.

And for the rest of the ACC teams, they remain in the national title picture.  A 13-0 ACC team WILL be in a playoff.  Heck, even a 13-0 Big East team will probably qualify.  Like Florida State, it is just up to the ACC teams to go out and win games.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
13 Jun 2012
2 Comments

Reports of ACC’s Death “Greatly Exagerrated”

Look, nobody can predict the future.  But for the very short term, at least, it looks like the Atlantic Coast Conference will be surviving intact.  In response to an inaccurate report of his death, Mark Twain once stated that the report of his death was “exaggerated.”  Similarly, it looks like the death of the ACC may have been prematurely pronounced too.

Florida State’s President Eric Barron addressed the trustees regarding realignment: http://floridastate.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=1373740.  Naturally, this will only cause the Florida State babies fans to simply seek to get him fired.  After all, why would anyone want its leader to be one to reject knee-jerk reactions.  In any event, nothing in what Barron had to say suggests that Florida State has one foot out the door.  Barron even became the 1,000,000th person to question why the ACC does not move to geographically logical divisions.  Not much to see here.

Dabo Swinney had all kinds of negative things to say about the Big XII rumors.  Most notable is that the rumors are hurting recruiting.  It certainly makes you wonder.  Do Clemson and Florida State fans REALLY think that kids in their locality are going to be thrilled about having games a time zone away?  Let the Presidents worry about the money.  Fans can just focus on being fans.

Again, neither of these individuals have the final say.  But both are being awfully bold in their statements.  It seems likely that a lot of the college football world is going to sit tight and see what happens with playoffs before making a move.  Makes sense, really.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,
22 May 2012
1 Comment

Conference Realignment: A Hearsay Battle

There is a bitter twitter battle between the factions with an interest in the conference realignment issue.  You decide which to believe:

On the one hand, this triple hearsay was posted on Frank the Tank:

Stevesays:

Virginia AD says ACC has plan for Orange Bowl with Notre Dame and FSU not leaving.
(Very long, but worth it.) I copied this from a free Pitt message board.

UVA AD Littlepaige & BB Bennett met tonight at Marriot in Arlington, Virginia on the 14th Floor overlooking DC with UVA Top Alumni Contributors.

1. The UVA AD said these rumors were started by the Former Big-12 Commissioner that brought in Bowlsly and ONE FSU BOT Member that was totally ignorant on the ACC TV Deal. The Big-12 Third Tier TV Rights are meager for all schools except Texas, which will have $15 million that they will share just a few points with the conference schools. WVU, KU, KSU, ISU, Baylor, TT, TCU, and OKSU will be lucky to earn $500,000 from local TV & Radio. WV has just 174 High Schools and there not much more in Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa. The only school that matters in Texas is UT, Baylor, TCU, and Texas Tech will not earn much either with the Longhorn Network dominating.

On the other hand, the ACC ESPN Third Tier TV Rights will be on ESPN Channels that everyone can find right away and expose them to Recruits that turn to those ESPN channels. The ACC will be paid far more than anything for those Third Tier Rights Nationally and can be sold to other Networks in other ACC Sports. They will be all shared and it is expected that those Rights sold to advertisers that way will bring in another $5 to $7 Million per schools based on how the schools are winning and being ranked. About the only school that will earn more is UT but not the entire BIG-12. ND is earning just $6 million right now from CBS. The Big Ten Per School gets about $8 Million from Fox Big Ten Network. So, the ACC Contract is far more national in scope and depth by having ESPN handling them and sharing all income with all schools, unlike the Big-12 or SEC or PAC-12. The amount cannot be disclosed right now until PITT & CUSE join and see the ratings that come in as National Advertisers bid higher for commercials on ESPN, well WVU, Kansas, or Iowa State have to advertisers selling manure or lower paying advertisers selling local products.

2. The reason why the Former Big-12 Commissioner is bragging so much is really out knowing the Big-12 almost collapsed last year. It is like a wounded Bear crying to keep predators away. The Big-12 TV Contract is not equal for all schools and that is the dirty little secret no one in the Big-12 wants out.

3. All the ACC Schools and AD’s are very happy with the ACC TV Deal and many aspects the ACC does not want to reveal for current and future Athletic planning for each school in the ACC. FSU is going nowhere and nothing the Big-12 can offer can make that happen.

4. The big talk now and although not a done deal is that the ACC is reaching out to Notre Dame for Two Plans:

PLAN A:
The ACC Conference Winner that does not qualify for a Playoff spot will play ND at the Orange Bowl every year as means to counter the Rose Bowl & BIG-12-SEC Bowl. Notre Dame sell outs every Bowl they play in and the Orange Bowl is delighted about this aspect.

SPORTS TV Executives feel that will be bigger and better than anything SEC-BIG-12 offers since mostly their Conference Winner with be #2 pick in most years and God Forbid KU or KSU or ISU or Baylor. Just like the Rose Bowl has often not sold out when the Big Ten or PAC-12 #2 Schools plays in it. However, Notre Dame faithful fans come out at most all ND Games played anywhere. This also keep ND from joining another Conference.

PLAN B:
The ACC also feels by having this Bowl Association with Notre Dame, they will play more ACC Teams every year, and eventually this mutual beneficial sharing of Bowl Money and goodwill result in ND coming to the ACC when it decides it is joining a conference if ever. The ACC although they want to have ND join is very happy at 14 right now and if ND wants to stay Independent and still be part of BEC BB and All Sports, fine. But the bottom line this is the best plan for a Big Post-Season Bowl than having to play the BEC or Mid-Major!

5. The ACC is very happy that PITT is coming to the ACC and said PITT will be there in 2013. The ACC is feels it has re-entered and won back the Pennsylvania-Ohio and New York-New Jersey Markets they lost when BC, Miami & VT left the Big east and few to none ACC Games were shown here. The WV Market is too small to even consider since the TV Stations are in Pennsylvania that carryover to OH and WV, as well as Philly and New York City that smothers New Jersey. ESPN is delighted about this aspect of the ACC TV Contract and so is the ACC. In addition, heavy consideration for ACC to locate ACC BB Tournament to New York City although some push back from UNC, DUKE, NCS, WAKE, and GT who want at least the Tournament to switch between NYC, Atlanta, and Greensboro!

6. Told personally to one key big alumnus that do not listen to the rumors put out by the Sports Reporters, Big-12 Bloggers, and uninformed posters due to being worried that the Big-12 is really a Big Two League that Texas demands to run as they want, and UT can decide anytime to leave and they can do nothing about it. Many in the Big-12 are very happy at 10 Schools anyway to date.

Closing:
Now this is coming from another ACC AD, and we heard from GT, FSU, PITT, UVA, VT, and CLEMSON AD’S on the solidarity of the ACC and playing Notre Dame every year will be just as exciting as anybody as their CF Program starts to recover.
This post was edited on 5/21 10:29 PM by CaptainSidneyReilly

5/21 10:01 PM | IP: Logged

On the other hand, this commentary appeared on twitter:

Greg Swaim ‏@GSwaim

@jbresette Not officially…but unofficially, it’s quite possible.

The #BigEast is virtually dead, and the #ACC is quickly dying…at least as far as the football world is conidered.

The #ND deal apparently was a catalyst for getting #FSU aboard all along. This thing is happening fast now for the #Big12…

I’m told that #ND will jump in #Big12 very soon with Olympic sports, and then football joins after TV contract expires. #BlowsMyMind

With #FSU & #ND quite possibly to the #Big12, and their precedent setting deal with the #SEC, the #B1G won’t want to sit around long either.

The agresssive #Big12 is forcing the #SEC to go for two more before Nienas grabs them. Best bets #VT and #NCState, but subject to change.

#ND to #Big12 has more teeth today than I ever thought it could just a few weeks ago. The Irish are already going through proper channels.

So there you have it.
The ACC is thriving and dying.  At least we sorted that out.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , ,
20 May 2012

Expansion Talk Continues

Look, if you are an ACC fan, you better be nervous.  While the new bowl announced on Friday is bad news for the ACC, the Florida State fans–already a delusional group–are jumping on this as the latest indication that the ACC sky is falling.

In truth, it does give FSU a reason other than money to want to jump.  I mean, it would be great for them to take their 8-4 record to the Big XII and wonder who is going to play in the new bowl game that they will not qualify for.  After all, a few million dollars does not buy wins.  Unless you are cheating.  Hmmm… I guess that does sound like Free Sneaker U. might be making a comeback.  Maybe relevance will return for the Seminoles?  Long live the 1990s.

So… what happens if the FSU fans get their way and head off to the Dust Bowl conference?  Well, for one, none of us will have to listen to Florida State complain about their wookies being bent about every little thing that has ever not gone their way or might not go their way.  Seriously, they are crying about having to play in a Thursday game?   Good lord, grow a pair.

Still, gotta figure Clemson takes its delusional fanbase off to the midwest also.  That leaves two ACC openings.  Maybe even four.

My astute brother gets credit for this… but wouldn’t ESPN just love to find a new conference for UConn (near Bristol) and Central Florida (near Disney)?  Throw in Louisville and South Florida.   Now you are at 16 teams.  Miami has not one, but two partners in Florida.  Go to pods:

Way Up North: BC, UConn, Syracuse, Pitt

Deep South: Miami, USF, UCF, and Ga Tech

Southish: UNC, Duke, NC State, Wake Forest

Mideast: Virginia, Va Tech, Maryland, Louisville

Sure, the academics are non-starters for a few of these schools.  But we are talking two very good basketball programs (UConn and Louisville) and two football programs with a ton of potential (USF and UCF).  From Florida to Boston, the ACC would cover the map (except South Carolina, sigh).

Frankly, the Confidential is not sure that this is a worse football conference.  I think most teams can hold West Virginia under 70 points.  And UConn has been to a BCS bowl more recently than Florida State.

Perfect?  No.

Doable?  Yes.

Especially if that is what ESPN wants…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , ,
19 May 2012
2 Comments

Big XII-SEC New Bowl Game: Relax, ACC Fans

Apparently, ACC fans are all tearing their garments over the new Big XII-SEC game.  This is a HUGE over-reaction.  As will be explained below, if the ACC does not panic, it will come out in an acceptable position.

First, there is the Rose Bowl featuring the Big XII and Pac-12 champion.  Now, the Big XII-SEC champions will meet in a bowl game.  The common perception is that this means that those champions can simply meet to decide the national championship once and for all.  If so, the ACC and Big East schools are left out of the mix–forcing the ACC teams to scramble looking for one of the four superconferences to join.  Right?

Wrong.

Well, partially wrong.  If the ACC schools start scrambling… like a bank announcing it is almost out of money… the scramble will lead to an implosion of the ACC.  The fear is worse than the reality.  If everyone stays calm, however, the end result will be acceptable.

Think logically here.  Each of the four so-called superconferences is already on record as saying that they support using the bowl system to resolve the national championship issue.  Even the SEC/Big XII bowl will involve the best teams that are not part of the playoff.  If Alabama is #1, then Alabama will go into the proposed playoff bowl… not this new bowl.  Instead, the SEC runner-up will go to the new bowl.  Unless the runner-up is also part of the playoff.  And so on.

The bottom line is that an ACC champion with 0 or 1 losses is ALWAYS going to be part of the playoff picture.  Conversely, a 9-3 or 10-2 champion out of the Pac-12, B1G, SEC, or Big 12 might lead to those conferences being excluded from the playoff.

The response to that is this… well, what if those conferences to decide to just have their champions play for the title?  First, it will not garner national interest because a large segment of the country is not represented–i.e. the Northeast.  And, as it is situated now, the teams in ACC country are not represented either.  Is there going to be a plan that ignores the northeast?  That is unwise.

Second, the goal of the playoffs is to crown a national champion.  Suppose you have this scenario after the conference championships are resolved.  LSU: 13-0.  Florida: 12-1 (lost to LSU in the SEC CCG).  Texas: 12-1.  Ohio State: 13-0.  Oregon: 11-2.  If only champions go to the playoffs–this means that 12-1 Florida is excluded at the expense of 11-2 Oregon.  Automatically, this means that there is continued debate about the four included teams.  The second best team from a conference may very well be the second best team in the country–neutering the playoff.  This defeats the purpose of having a playoff altogether.  And we have seen conferences have the two best teams a number of times (think back to Ohio State/Michigan).  Not a rarity, at least.

Instead, the more logical solution is to take the 4 best teams for the playoff, using a seeded playoff structure.  More often than not, the Rose Bowl and this new bowl will feature the #2 and/or #3 teams from the SEC and Big XII.  Instead of those schools playing the last BCS qualifier in the Fiesta Bowl, they will just play each other.  This is essentially deciding how the #3 or #4 BCS bowl will be filled each year.

In a seeded 4-team playoff with the the above scenario, Oregon gets excluded.  Oregon ends up in the Rose Bowl against the #2 Big 10 team.  This is a result we have seen quite a bit in the past too.  LSU would play Texas and Ohio State would play Florida.  The winners would meet.  Or perhaps Florida State or Notre Dame is undefeated and bumps out Texas or Florida.  The public will accept an undefeated team playing a reasonably tough schedule taking the place of a 1-loss team.  As long as the ACC stays intact, its champion will have the cache to do so.  This is especially so if Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Miami, or Virginia Tech is the ACC champion and undefeated.  As long as those schools have a tough OOC game on the schedule, all is well.

Now… is it possible that the four superconferences might divide up the ACC?  Sure.  Of course.  But that is only if the ACC schools panic and let it happen.  The only real negative to come out of this announcement is that the BCS system might be dead.  Might be.  Even in the worst case scenario, the Orange Bowl will still end up with a very good team to play an ACC champion with 2 losses.  Could be a Notre Dame… the #3 B1G team (Penn State, Nebraska, Wisconsin?)… etc.  The payout may not increase as much over time, but there will still be a nice payout.

The real challenge will be for the ACC to stay strong.  If the ACC stays together, it can weather this storm.  Because it is not really a storm in anyone’s eyes other than panicky ACC fans on the Internet.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , ,
16 May 2012
1 Comment

A Question for ACC Leadership

While Florida State–primarily the Internet commentariat–is acting like a bunch of spoiled brats, the ACC office has some answering to do as well.  In particular, the math is a bit fuzzy as to why the individual ACC schools are worth so much more money separately than together.  Perhaps Florida State is right that the most recent television contract was not negotiated sufficiently.

Consider this fuzzy math.  The Big XII is reported to get $20 million per year.  It is known that the Big 10 and SEC are already in that range (or above it or will be above it).  The Pac-12 is too, but that is irrelevant to this discussion.

In order for any of these four conferences to justify adding teams, the added teams would have to be worth at least enough to allow themselves to be paid what the current conference schools are making–say $20 million.  But, in that case, the conferences would only be breaking even by adding a new team.  For example, if the Big XII is getting $20 million per school, with 10 schools that is $200 million.  If Florida State and Clemson joined, this would be 12 teams.  In order to break even, the Big XII would have to renegotiate its contract to allow payment of $240 million.  In order for each of the schools to get $22 million apiece (10% more), the contract would have to be for $264 million ($22M x 12).  If so, this means that Florida State and Clemson are worth $64 million to the networks–$32 million apiece.

There is talk that some conference would be interested in taking Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, North Carolina, Duke, Maryland, Virginia, and Virginia Tech.  Even North Carolina State is thought to be on the SEC’s radar.  That is everyone except Pitt, Wake Forest, Boston College, and Syracuse.  Assume that only six schools of those ten schools are worth adding to a current conference.  In order for those conferences to grow by 10%, then those six schools must be worth at least $192 million to the networks.

And then assume the other eight schools are worth a total of $80 million–approximately 1/3 value of the six schools worthy of being poached.  That seems fair.  With four of those schools arguably being worth added to an existing conference, that is probably quite low.  In any event, even this low number works out to $272 million for 14 teams.  This is nearly $19 million per team.  That is more than the reported value of the ACC package from ESPN.

This suggests a few things.

First, and obviously, the above math is simply wrong.  And there is no formal indication that any conference wants anyone from the ACC. If Florida State is the only valuable commodity, then maybe the ACC is–ironically–safe from being poached.

Second, conferences might be willing to expand even if they do not increase the revenue to existing schools.  But why expand if there is nothing to be gained?  If you are Texas, why add a potential obstacle to the playoffs in exchange for no additional money?  Illogical.   Same for the B1G and SEC.  Why expand for the sake of expanding when you already have great brands?

Third, the ACC negotiated poorly.  The Confidential is not saying that the ACC was not in a tough situation by having its rights locked-in and the inability to start a bidding war.  But, at the same time, the thought of schools leaving should have been a key focus.  Even without the Big XII rumors, the SEC is sitting right there with the potential to add schools.  And ESPN just saved the Big XII.  Would the threat of ACC dissolution be enough to get ESPN to save it?  We may find out.  It might have been better to negotiate this up front to keep Florida State happy.  Somehow the ACC had to get some leverage over ESPN.  If it failed to do so, some blame has to fall on leadership.

The last option seems most likely.  If so, Florida State has a legitimate gripe that the ACC did not maximize the TV revenue.  If that is the case, ACC leadership has some explaining to do.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , ,
15 May 2012
1 Comment

Actually, Does the Big XII Really Want Florida State?

It has been said that these conference arrangements are like marriages.  They are 100-year decisions, not 10-year decisions.  The Confidential does not have a source handy, but will credit Frank the Tank for the observation.  Regardless of the source of that statement, it is true.  While it is apparent that Florida State is unhappy with its marriage to the ACC, the question is why the Big XII would want to be Florida State’s new spouse?

Picture this.  You go on a date with someone.  All they do is talk about how their ex-spouse was so awful.  At first, you are sympathetic.  But after a while it occurs to you that the problem is not the ex, it is the person across the dinner table from you.  These complaints are minor.  The ex had room to improve, but this person you are dating is way too spoiled, delusional, unrealistic, and unwilling to accept responsibility.  What do you do?  You run.  Sure, this may be an attractive person–which is valuable–but the long-term prognosis is awful.  This person will take away much more than they give in the long-run and be a pain-in-the-butt along the way.

As it relates to conference realignment, if FSU doesn’t like Tobacco Road, how are they going to like dealing with Texas?  If FSU is willing to bitch about Thursday games, officiating, and vague paranoia regarding pro-basketball sentiments, they are going to bitch in the Big XII.  If FSU does not like Wake Forest getting the same money (even though Wake has won 4 of 6 from FSU), how is it going to like Iowa State getting the same money?  If FSU fans are riled up over misinformation regarding third-tier rights from basketball–by teams that do not threaten their football team–how are they going to like Texas making $10 million more in third-tier rights AND using that to field a football  team that may very well keep FSU out of a 4-team playoff.  If FSU is willing to jump ship for $5 million, what is going to happen if the SEC is able to offer FSU $5 million more in 15 years?  It’s all about the money for FSU. The Big XII may not always have the best ability to pay FSU enough to be happy.

The bottom line is that FSU is a divorced, emotionally unbalanced, very attractive female with entitlement issues–jealous that her friends all drive Porsches, while she is “stuck” with the BMW that she picked out.  A school like Louisville would be a loyal, girl-next-door type, thrilled to trade in the Taurus for a BMW, much less a Porsche.  Who is the one that YOU marry?

And when you are not even sold on marriage at all, like Texas apparently is, all the more reason to ignore Florida State’s overtures.  Someone else can marry that problem.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment and tagged , , , ,

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