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26 Nov 2014
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ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 13/14

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 13) and the Week that will be (Week 14) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Special thanks to the Confidential contributors for their comments and opinions.  Tell us what you think below.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE FOR THE ACC IN WEEK 13?

Len (Louisville): I was expecting North Carolina to beat Duke but not in that fashion. I know BC is good but I was expecting Florida State to handle them better. It’s hard to rank them number 1 in the country when they haven’t dominated anyone.

Mike (NC State): It was a wild week in the ACC.  Florida State struggled mightily against Boston College, but that has been the norm this year for the Noles.  Then there was that weird 0-0 tie and double overtime win for Wake Forest over Virginia Tech, the Deacs first conference win of the season.  But Duke failed to show up against UNC, and while I thought the Heels might win, by rights it should have been a bit closer than the 45-20 blowout it was, or as we call it down here, the whuppin’ it was.

John (UNC): Last week, the talk was about Notre Dame’s freefall (which continued with a loss against Louisville). This week it’s all about the Hokies. What happened to this team? Seriously. Even with an uncommon number of season ending injuries (it’s in the double digits), this isn’t how a Frank Beamer team plays. Fighting for bowl eligibility on the last game of the season? Something has got to give.

Brian (FSU): Duke completely getting destroyed by UNC.  Duke has completely fallen on its face.  It went from one moment showing it is a regular power in the ACC to possibly being a flash in the pan. To let your rival ruin your season in that manner might be as soul crushing as it gets in college football.  Duke has to win this weekend or risk an 8-4 regular season, with no shot at double digit victories on the year.

Anthony (Syracuse): I have to go with Duke getting blown out by UNC.  Virginia Tech losing to Wake Forest after defeating Duke–well, the Duke win looks a bit less impressive now.  And Wake has been trending up since bottoming out against Syracuse.  And UNC winning is not the same level of surprise that UNC dominating was.  Coastal is just a mess.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE/DISAPPOINTMENT FOR YOUR SCHOOL IN WEEK 13?

Len (Louisville): My biggest disappointment would have to be that Louisville didn’t force more turnovers. I was surprised by Notre Dame tenacity on defense with all their injuries. ND came out on senior day & were fired up to play & pretty much sustained that throughout the whole game. I was really surprised that ND missed the field goal to send it to overtime.

Mike (NC State): It was a bye week for State, so now might be a good time to drop in a line about an intriguing 2015 recruit: Darian Roseboro, Def. Tackle.  Roseboro played for Lincolnton High School, not far from where I live, and he is rated 4 stars by Scout.com. He’s 6’3″ and 293 lbs and should be making plenty of tackles for the Pack next season.  Looking forward to that.

John (UNC): I legitimately thought that North Carolina had a chance against Duke, especially given the Blue Devils’ performance the week before in their loss against Virginia Tech. Never in my wildest dreams, however, did I think it would be a blow out in the Tar Heels’ favor. What a game! So yes, I wasn’t surprised at the outcome, just how it went down. And unfortunately, I also wasn’t surprised when I heard that the team destroyed Duke’s locker room and field. North Carolina football is the gift that keeps on giving…at least if you’re a reporter.

Brian (FSU):    I was both surprised and disappointed that Winston found a way to spark off the field type controversy ON THE FIELD! He is very lucky the referee did not flag him for touching the referee.  I was also very surprised that the kicker missed his 3rd kick of the season.

Anthony (Syracuse): Scott Shafer’s punt on 4th and 1 from his own 47 with a minute or so remaining was just the latest example of him not being nearly as hardnosed as he claims.  So that is more of a disappointment than a surprise.  The real disappointment is that the defense could not stop Pitt without RB James Connor.  But for a few shanked FGs and an opportune red zone interception, the score could have been a lot worse.  Simply stated, a Syracuse team that purports to be hard-nosed is anything but that right now.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 14 FOR YOUR SCHOOL?

Len (Louisville): Pitino (Editor’s Note: Petrino?  Why does Jurich have to confuse us like this!) is undefeated vs Kentucky & I look forward to that remaining true this Saturday. The cats are struggling as of late while the Cards are playing at their best right now. Bonnafon is developing consistency at the quarterback position & Pitino doesn’t take a knee against the cats so I am looking forward to a huge victory.

Mike (NC State): Everything.  It’s the rivalry game Pack fans look forward to all season, and here’s hoping for a good showing against the Tar Heels. Realistically, Carolina is peaking and playing at home, so it could be a long day.  But if State does win, it would give us a more bowl-attractive 7-5 record, so go Pack!!!

John (UNC):  I can’t overstate the importance of a win this week. Sure, the Tar Heels are bowl eligible now, but a victory against the Wolfpack would give North Carolina a much needed boost in the public eye. Frankly, the University just needs something positive to talk about, and a sweep of their main conference rivals would be a good start.

Brian (FSU): Hopefully, FSU knocking off the Gators putting Fisher’s record against the big 3 rivals for FSU at 13-2.  I still think FSU is due for a loss though, so I will watch the game with one eye closed.

Anthony (Syracuse): Syracuse showing up with great effort and a game plan.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 14 FOR THE ACC?

Len (Louisville): All the rivalry games! Should be a fun weekend. Clemson v South Carolina and if Georgia Tech can upset Georgia. How the ACC fares against the SEC. Could be a statement weekend.

Mike (NC State): Florida State faces its last hurdle before the ACC title game, and it’s a doozy.  Sure, Florida isn’t as tough this year as they would have liked, but this game is for my money the best rivalry in college football.  And if the Noles, who have been building their undefeated record on the edge of a sharp razor all season, can’t win this one there will likely be no playoff spot waiting no matter what happens against Tech in Charlotte.

John (UNC):  As a Tar Heel in a Hokie family, I’m really hoping for a Virginia Tech win. But that’s not the only important game going on. This week, the ACC has an opportunity to make a statement against its bitter rival to the South. If the conference can hold its own against the SEC (and we’re not talking just Louisville-Kentucky), then it will gain a whole lot more respect in the college football world, and with the selection committee.

Brian (FSU): The ACC is favored to win 3 of its 4 SEC match-ups, Louisville vs. KY/FSU vs. UF/Clemson vs. S Car, and GT has a realistic shot to beat UGA.  I would like to see the ACC at least go 2-2 in those games… please no losing record.

 Anthony (Syracuse): A whole slew of rivalry games.  But more specifically… the ACC/SEC matchups.  The ACC needs Florida State to win and expects Louisville to win.  But can Georgia Tech rise up and beat Georgia?  Can Clemson end its streak of losing to South Carolina.  And keep an eye on Virginia–if Mike London wins, does he save his job?

WHO ARE YOUR FOUR PLAYOFF TEAMS IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY?

Len (Louisville): 1 FSU 2 Oregon 3 Alabama 4 Baylor.

Mike (NC State):Florida State, Oregon, Mississippi State and Alabama, in that order.

John (UNC): Despite the fact that TCU was almost upset by a lowly Kansas team, they’re staying in the top 4…for now- Florida State, Alabama, Oregon, TCU.

Brian (FSU): Right now: 1) FSU, 2) Oregon, 3) Bama, 4) Ms St.  End of Year: 1) Bama, 2) Oregon, 3) Ms St, 4) OSU.

Anthony (Syracuse): (1) Florida State; (2) Alabama; and (3) Oregon.  For number 4, you look at Mississippi State, Ohio State, Baylor, and TCU, obviously.  Ohio State has the worst loss.  But they are also looking fairly strong right now (save for a lackluster performance against Indiana).  Baylor beat TCU, but lost to West Virginia.  Mississippi State may have the best resume–the best loss at the very least.  But I think the committee will want four conferences represented if possible.  So if Ohio State can run the table, they will be number 4.  And if you look at Ohio State–they beat the same team, Minnesota, than TCU beat.  So (4) Ohio State.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
24 Nov 2014

The Confidential’s ACC Standings Poll: Week 14

It is now the end of November.  The regular season is down to its final week.  The Conference Championship Game is set–all that is left is for some rivalry games.  Here is how the correspondents view the top 10 in the ACC:

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Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Football and tagged , , ,
21 Nov 2014
1 Comment

Proposed Changes in Sports #3: The Perfect College Football Playoff

Everyone has some opinions on what they would like to see change–both in the sports world and outside of it.  For whatever its worth (and it probably is not worth much), there are plenty of changes throughout sports that this author would like to see.  Before we touched on the College Football Playoff reporting issues and ranking issues.  But how about the playoff system as a whole?  Consider…the Confidential’s Perfect College Football Playoff:

Read more…

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion and tagged , , ,
19 Nov 2014
6 Comments

Proposed Changes in Sports #2: Why FSU Should Be #1 By Rule

Everyone has some opinions on what they would like to see change–both in the sports world and outside of it.  For whatever its worth (and it probably is not worth much), there are plenty of changes throughout sports that this author would like to see.  Before we touched on the College Football Playoff reporting issues.  But the rankings needs work also…as Florida State should be #1.  As should ANY team that is the sole undefeated team from a Power 5 conference after 10 games.

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF RANKINGS

OK, with the College Football Playoff Committee’s decision to have Alabama leap over FSU and Oregon based on beating Mississippi State, the Confidential cannot take it any longer.  The goal in football has always been to win 100% of your games.  Always.  Unless you are outside a major conference (see Brigham Young), going undefeated and being the SOLE undefeated team was usually the best way to win a title.  Indeed, if this season were to end under the BCS regime or its predecessors, an undefeated Florida State would be the national champion.

But, by the same token, if Tennessee or Wisconsin or Kansas State or Arizona State did the same thing, they too would be the national champion.  That is and has always been the way it is done.

In light of same, there is absolutely no reason why any one-loss team from a power conference–a dozen weeks into the season–should ever be behind a one-loss team.  None.  The system should reward perfection BEFORE it starts analyzing warts for size, shape, and color.

The rankings as of today should be: (1) Florida State; (2) Alabama; (3) Oregon; and (4) Mississippi State.  It is perplexing that the committee has undefeated Florida State #3.

The excuse is that Florida State has not played anyone.  But Florida State scheduled and beat Oklahoma State and Notre Dame out-of-conference.  What else can the Seminoles do?  They have also beaten Louisville, Clemson, and Miami within conference.  And Florida looms.  Again, what else can the Seminoles do?

In fairness, Alabama tested itself with West Virginia opening week.  The Mountaineers are 6-4 and Oklahoma State is 5-5, with WVU also having won the head-to-head matchup.  Oregon, too, tested itself… beating Michigan State.

The problem is that Oregon lost to Arizona at home.  This is the same Arizona team that lost to Southern Cal, which lost to Boston College.  Oregon walked onto a football field and walked off the loser.  That is something that Florida State has yet to do.

Similarly, Alabama walked off the field at Ole Miss a loser.  Not an embarrassing loss by any stretch.  But not so significant that a team with a perfect record should bow to it.

At this late juncture of the season, the sole undefeated team from a Power 5 conference should be the #1 team.  And this is a change that the Confidential would like to see.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion and tagged , , , ,
19 Nov 2014

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 12/13

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 12) and the Week that will be (Week 13) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Special thanks to the Confidential contributors for their comments and opinions.  Tell us what you think below.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE FOR THE ACC IN WEEK 12?

David (FSU): Duke, what are you doing? I really didn’t see them losing to Va Tech going into the week, and you’ve got to feel for both Clemson (Watson’s knee) and Miami (I seriously don’t know how FSU won).

Len (Louisville): Clemson, Duke and Notre Dame all losing. Duke’s hold on the Coastal loosened and Georgia Tech is ready to take it from them. North Carolina can knock their rivals from the division lead this weekend.

Mike (NC State): While Virginia Tech’s upset of Duke was an eye-opener, the Georgia Tech domination of Clemson is the surprise of the week in the conference.  Jackets fans will now be watching the UNC-Duke Thursday night game with renewed interest, as this is the best chance for another Duke loss.    

John (UNC): Wow, Notre Dame’s freefall continues. Losing to a 3-6 Northwestern team just shows how far the mighty have fallen. Injuries aside, there’s no excuse for the Fighting Irish to lose to the Wildcats, especially in South Bend. Not that Notre Dame would have a chance for a big bowl with three losses anyway, but they may need to re-think their football conference affiliation status at this point. Welcome to the ACC…for real this time.

Brian (FSU): ND losing to Northwestern… what the heck happened? There went my pool.  NW has one of the worst offenses in college football and puts crazy points on ND on the road.  Brian Kelly has gone from top tier college football coach to a mistake waiting to happen in just two weeks.

Anthony (Syracuse): Tough call.  I really did not see Duke losing to Va Tech, Clemson losing to Georgia Tech, or Notre Dame losing to Northwestern.  The latter was the biggest upset though.  But I will go with Florida State yet again starting slow and having to come back.  The Seminoles are playing with fire.  If you cannot come out strong against a rival like Miami–that is not a good sign.  Credit FSU for the win, but it is high time that FSU play a full 60-minute game.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE/DISAPPOINTMENT FOR YOUR SCHOOL IN WEEK 12?

David (FSU): I could go on for days about everything that surprised me in this game. How lost the D was for the first 25 minutes of the game, how the Defense turned it on and shut down Miami for the next 35. How moving Cam Erving to Center & starting a True Freshman in Rod Johnson at LT actually worked, and worked very well. Helped open up running lanes for another True Freshman who is emerging as a the team’s homerun threat in Dalvin Cook.

Len (Louisville): Notre Dame losing. It would have been nice to face a ranked opponent on their turf. The Cards are playing for a good bowl game and we can knock the Golden Domers down a few more notches for the ACC.

Mike (NC State): Hey! The Pack can run the ball!  Ok, it was only Wake, but NC State’s 362-yard rushing performance, including 100+ yards by both Matt Dayes and Shadrach Thornton was a high point in a season of struggles.  And they are now bowl-eligible. But hey, Wolfpack, don’t settle for sneaking in at 6-6.  Beat Carolina!!

John (UNC): I was so impressed with how the Tar Heels came back against Pitt, despite being down almost the whole game. One thing the team has shown this year is resiliency. Even though the defense is among the worst in the country, they always show up when they’re needed most. With a young team all-around, hopefully, it’s the sign of good things to come.

Brian (FSU):   I am surprised FSU did not lose to UM by a field goal, and in reality UM is the team that got burned by a shanked field goal in reality.  I am also surprised ESPN is beginning to cover the fact it may have jumped the gun on the Winston got paid for autographs scandal.  Reports from OTL are coming out that the signatures in question were questioned so much by the original authenticator brought in to verify the signatures that said authenticator refused to authenticate the items in question (a different entity had to be brought in).  In fact, when you read the story at ESPN it seems very shady.  The guy claiming he got Winston to sign the items would not let the authenticator observe Winston actually sign the items.  Also, it seems now that OTL has had handwriting experts look over the signatures and let us just say the experts seem to think they do not seem to be Mr. Winston’s John Hancock.  Of course with my Noles’ luck this will all change tomorrow, and new information will blow up to make FSU look bad a little more.  I was disappointed that all of FSU’s key opponents decided to get worse.  Clemson and ND both choked winnable games away, and likely ACC Ch. Game Opponent Duke fell on its face again.

Anthony (Syracuse): As far as we know, no more starters were lost during the bye week.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 13 FOR YOUR SCHOOL?

David (FSU): The Noles are almost 3 touchdown favorites heading into a home match up vs. BC, and all I’m looking for is seeing them escape with a comfortable win. Can we get one week where it isn’t down to the wire? Please? Honestly, look to see the same OL lineup and that they continue to gel. The run game for FSU has quietly been improving and I expect that to continue to flourish.

Len (Louisville): I should have mentioned this last week as probably the biggest surprise from the BC game was that the Cards won the game with their second string QB, true freshman Bonnafon. Gardner is at least done for the season with another knee injury and Bonnafon will start the rest of the season. He has had a tough season so far having been thrust into action a week after his father passed earlier in the season but performed well at Boston College. The bye week should help him prepare for the trip to South Bend. The Domers are playing poorly right now and Cards S Holliman only needs 1 more INT to tie the NCAA record. Only 15 FBS teams have more INT’s than his 13. He has 2 games to set the record (vs Kentucky).

Mike (NC State): The Pack is on a bye, so get prepared for the season-ending showdown.  I say again, beat Carolina!!

John (UNC):  This week is huge for North Carolina. With a win Thursday, they could deny Duke a chance at the ACC championship, and become bowl eligible at the same time. A Tar Heel dream. With a loss, well…that would put a whole lot more pressure on the season finale against NC State. The Wolfpack are a much better team than their record suggests, so North Carolina really needs to take care of business against the Blue Devils. Game. Set. Match?

Brian (FSU): Hopefully, and finally a strong win.  Of course, BC is no pushover… in fact I tend to think they can win.   I love my Noles, but they cause my blood pressure to rise a little too much.

Anthony (Syracuse): Syracuse really needs to win one of its final two games to get to 4 wins.  4 wins is a bad season, without question, but it would be great to avoid the valleys experienced only during the G-Rob era (his BEST season was 4 wins).  Winning at Pitt has been elusive, but you have to wonder whether Syracuse fan force turnovers.  Pitt has had problems in that regard and Syracuse’s defense is healthy.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 13 FOR THE ACC?

David (FSU): I’m going to take the Louisville v ND game here, and think ND gets back on track after two weeks I’m sure any Fighting Irish fans have already tried to erase from their memory.

Len (Louisville): Can the Heels knock the Dookies from the Coastal lead. FSU may get more help by playing Georgia Tech in the CCG. Tech is looking stronger than Duke and should be higher ranked if they can beat Georgia. Bonnafon didnt fare well in the Cards trip to Death Valley, how will he handle the trip to South Bend? I have been waiting for this game for a long time and with it being played on my father’s birthday makes it all the sweeter. I just wish he was here to see it.

Mike (NC State): Louisville/Notre Dame should be interesting, though it has lost some of its luster.  Then there’s Boston College/FSU, which will likely be closer than expected.  But the game of the week is that Thursday nighter between Carolina and Duke.  Both teams need it badly; UNC to get bowl-eligible and Duke to hold off charging Georgia Tech.  Should be a good one.

John (UNC):  I would love to see two more teams become bowl eligible. Sure, I’m biased, because one of the teams in position is North Carolina, but it would be great for the conference, there’s no denying that. I also think a Louisville win against Notre Dame is extremely possible, and that would be fun to see as well. Until the Fighting Irish join the conference full-time, I’ll root for the REAL ACC over them any day.

Brian (FSU): How about Louisville, FSU, ND, GT, and Clemson all trending up for their out of conference play.  I want GT to get rested and ready to upset UGA.  I want Louisville and ND to not kill each other before they face Kentucky and USC the following week.  FSU and Clemson need to somehow get ready for their big rivals the following week, without choking and looking ahead (yeah it is doubtful CU will stumble… FSU however, different story).  Long story short, I want the ACC to look as good as possible going into rivalry week to take some OOC schools down!

 Anthony (Syracuse): Duke/UNC is a huge showdown as it will determine who plays in the ACCCG.  Louisville traveling to ND will be very interesting… the new kid on the college football block vs. the old establishment.  ND is reeling, so it will be interesting to see how they respond to adversity.

WHO ARE YOUR FOUR PLAYOFF TEAMS IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY?

David (FSU): 1)FSU 2)Bama 3) Oregon 4) TCU with Miss St. and Baylor lurking.

Len (Louisville): 1) FSU, 2) Alabama, 3) Oregon, 4) Miss St. Miss St played better than I expected but they and Alabama still have a tough road ahead and I don’t expect them both to make it. I look for Baylor to sneak in at #4. The worst case scenario for the SEC would be to have Missouri as champion since they lost to Indiana.. In that scenario it would be possible for the SEC to be left out.

Mike (NC State):1) Florida State 2) Alabama 3) Oregon 4) Ohio State.

John (UNC): None of the teams from my top four lost last week, so no changes here. It’s Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and TCU until further notice.

Brian (FSU): 1) FSU, 2) Bama, 3) Oregon, 4) Miss St.  In 3 weeks: 1) Bama (wins out), 2) Oregon (wins out), 3) Baylor (wins out), 4) OSU (wins out)…. Miss St likely loses to Ole Miss, and until I am proven wrong I am assuming FSU playing with fire will burn it soon… also that pre-ACC title game student conduct hearing could have a major impact on FSU’s standing.  Even if FSU runs the table, winning the ACC title without Winston, if the hearing causes Winston to be removed from the team how will the committee react?  The safe money is to exclude FSU on the same grounds 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament have been lost by teams who have a star played injured just before the tourney.

Anthony (Syracuse): (1) Florida State; (2) Alabama; (3) Oregon; and (4) Ohio State.  I am not a big fan of the Big 10, but you have to think that there is going to be a strong push by the Committee to get the Big 10 into the finale somehow.  If Ohio State wins out, they will be in.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
18 Nov 2014

The Confidential’s ACC Standings Poll: Week 13

It is now mid-November.  The season is down to its final weeks.  The Atlantic is clear, the Coastal is essentially down to two teams.  Here is how the correspondents view the top 10 in the ACC:

Read more…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Football and tagged , , ,
13 Nov 2014
1 Comment

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 11/12

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 11) and the Week that will be (Week 12) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Special thanks to the Confidential contributors for their comments and opinions.  Tell us what you think below.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE FOR THE ACC IN WEEK 11?

David (FSU): The week went pretty much as planned, though Clemson did struggle a bit more than I expected early, the week was pretty much the status quo.

Len (Louisville): All the blowout victories. Not surprised by the wins but by the margins. The way Arizona State dominated Notre Dame.

Mike (NC State): The way Wake Forest hung with Clemson, trailing only 20-17 going into the fourth quarter.  This does not bode well for NC State; of their remaining two opponents, Wake looks to be the most winnable game.  Or is it?

John (UNC): Nothing too surprising this week, honestly. All the teams that won were expected to win, even though the margins may not have been exactly the same. At times, Clemson struggled against Wake Forest, and Florida State looked sloppy against Virginia, but no one will remember that years from now when they look back at each team’s win-loss record. Pretty standard. Oh wait, Notre Dame got destroyed by Arizona State, completely ending the Fighting Irish’s chance at the College Football Playoff. Not entirely surprising given the way they’ve played against their questionable schedule, but fantastic for the ACC’s chances at having them join all-in at some point in the future.

Brian (FSU):  Wake Forest putting up 20 points on Clemson’s defense.  I could not believe Wake’s anemic offense was able to score on Clemson.  On a side note I am surprised that OSU blew out Michigan State… you know the same OSU team that lost to the team currently in last place in the Coastal.  Of course if you watch ESPN the OSU hype machine is spinning that OSU is improving while asking us to ignore the VT loss.  Here is the thing, if you praise OSU you cannot do so without praising the ACC.  If one of the worst ACC teams can handily beat the best Big 10 team at their house, what does that say about the ACC?  You cannot brush off that loss for OSU when all they have played since the loss are other Big 10 teams and High School level competition, and the best Big 10 team should be able to handle the worst of any conference, even with a new QB.  Everyone has called JT Barrett one of the bright spots for OSU this year… well you cannot ignore what one of the worst ACC teams did to that QB in September. Sorry all BIG 10 homers, fact is the Hokies beat your best team.

Anthony (Syracuse): By far… it was Clemson allowing 20 points to Wake Forest. A close second was Notre Dame laying an egg against Arizona State.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE/DISAPPOINTMENT FOR YOUR SCHOOL IN WEEK 11?

David (FSU): I was surprised at not seeing Mario Pender & some others play either at all or very sparingly in the second half. FSU seemed to pack it in once they had a 2 score lead, appearing to just desire escaping with a W and as much rest as possible for key players still hampered by injury. 

Len (Louisville): I was surprised by how bad Boston College special teams were. I was disappointed in Dyers performance, I was expecting him to continue his high level of play. I was pleased that they weren’t caught looking ahead to Notre Dame. The 38-19 final score was surprising as well, it’s a solid road victory.

Mike (NC State): Zero momentum carried over from the Syracuse game and the Pack was pummeled.  Not that the Tech game looked too promising, but 56-23?  Really?

John (UNC):  North Carolina was off last week, so thankfully, we didn’t lose. The Tar Heels continued to be in the news though, as former player Michael McAdoo (no relation to former basketball player James Michael McAdoo) sued the school, claiming that the University ‘failed to provide him with a quality education.’ While that may be true on some level due to his involvement in the African American Studies Department’s paper classes, this is a guy who got kicked out of school for plagiarism and academic fraud that he committed, not someone else. While I agree that it’s the University’s responsibility to provide a quality education, I am a firm believer in personal responsibility. The blame falls solely on McAdoo for going along with the paper class system instead of waiting to speak out when it was more convenient for him. Much like fellow whistle blower Rashad McCants, McAdoo’s professional career has been a complete bust, in part because of his bad attitude.

Brian (FSU):   I was surprised and disappointed that the UM game is currently sitting at -1.5 FSU.  Yes, UM is a rival…. Yes, statistically they have better numbers… Yes, they have played better offenses, and their D is top 11… Yes, FSU has not looked like last year… I do not care!  Fact is FSU should be more of favorite than they are, and certainly not an underdog (trending that way).   FSU has actually faced far better run defenses and defenses that are far more aggressive than UM.  UM has actually played some of the worst run defenses, have Duke Johnson, and they are still not a top 30 team in rushing.  In two of the games they lost this year they played good run defenses (the only 2 all year ), and could not break a 100 yards rushing.  Fact is, if you stop UM’s ground attack they are in trouble.  Would you believe me if I told you with all the injuries and all the criticism that FSU has the third best run defense UM will have faced all year, sitting at 35? Well they are, and are coming in healthier in the front line than they have been all year.  Remember, FSU had 2 total linebackers going up against Louisville… that will not be the case against UM.  That being said… UM will likely shock FSU… I always assume the worst.

Anthony (Syracuse): Syracuse keeps losing players and keeps performing at the same level.  For all the criticism lofted at Scott Shafer (e.g. here), he has kept this team together despite the losses.  Syracuse may not have talent, but it certainly has heart.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 12 FOR YOUR SCHOOL?

David (FSU): I’m most looking forward to seeing how the run game works itself out on both sides of the ball. Getting Pender back should help FSU, and supposedly Cook will be able to play as well. Can the team finally have a dominate rushing game that we expected to see at the start of the year? As for MIA, they’ve already proven they can run the ball as well as anyone in the ACC not named GT. Will the FSU DL have gap composure and integrity? Exactly how healthy are Mario Edwards & Eddie Goldman, their play will be vital to FSU’s chances for success.

Len (Louisville): The Cards are on a bye week so I’m looking forward to them getting healthy again. Lorenzo Mauldin missed the game against BC due to a shoulder injury, that injury has been nagging him all season. Golson is struggling with turnovers and Holliman added 3 ints to his season total, giving him 13 to lead the nation, so I am looking forward to our trip to South Bend in two weeks. The Cards defense should be able to pressure Golson much like Arizona St did which should give the Cards the advantage.

Mike (NC State): The Wolfpack must focus and beat Wake to ensure bowl eligibility.  I have no confidence that they can go into Chapel Hill and beat the Heels in Week 14, especially if the bowl issue isn’t yet nailed down.

John (UNC):  It’s Homecoming, so I’m looking for a win against Pittsburgh. If we can’t pull it off against the Panthers, our shot at bowl eligibility decreases significantly since a win at Duke can’t be guaranteed, or even remotely expected, at this point. The Tar Heels need to take care of business against the Panthers in order to set up a crucial home game against rival NC State the final week of the season. Something to watch- If NC State loses at home against Wake Forest this Saturday (highly unlikely, but possible), the stakes of the Tar Heels’ end of the month meeting with the Wolfpack become even higher. NC State is only 5-5 with two games remaining.

Brian (FSU):  Not much, since I somehow expect to lose. I would say, with our great kicker it would not be due to a wide right field goal… but then he shanked one against Louisville.

Anthony (Syracuse): Rest and healing.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 12 FOR THE ACC?

David (FSU):I’m actually going to take the Clemson v GT game here, the GT offense vs Clemson D should be a great matchup to watch, and both teams still have plenty on the line this year.

Len (Louisville): If FSU can remain unbeaten after traveling to Miami. Also the Clemson and GT game. You have two Coastal teams, Miami and GT, playing at their best right now hosting the two top dogs from the Atlantic. Pop open a cold one, grab your favorite snack and enjoy the games.

Mike (NC State): Florida State vs Miami.  One of the two rivalry games the Noles face as the season draws to a close.  The Hurricanes are peaking at the right time, and the Seminoles have looked vulnerable over most of this season.  Will this be the game that ruins the chance of getting an ACC team into the first College Football Playoffs?

John (UNC):  The spotlight is on the Florida State-Miami game, but the other four games have bigger implications. Will North Carolina get one step closer to bowl eligibility against the Panthers? Will NC State get to six wins with a victory over the lowly Demon Deacons? What will another (expected) loss for the Hokies do to Frank Beamer’s tenure at Virginia Tech? And how will fierce rivals Clemson and Georgia Tech fare coming into a game with only four losses between them? There’s a lot at stake on Saturday, and it’s more than just pride.

Brian (FSU): I could say the only time ranked teams from the ACC are playing each other this weekend, and it is a rivalry game in GT vs. CU… but the Duke game is also important.  Right now it is a 3 way race for the Atlantic, in reality.  GT needs a lot of help. Duke controls its destiny.  UM is in a good tie-breaker position against Duke head to head.

 Anthony (Syracuse):Well, there are two top notch games between FSU/Miami and Georgia Tech/Clemson.  What else could anyone want?

WHO ARE YOUR FOUR PLAYOFF TEAMS IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY?

David (FSU): 1) Miss State 2) FSU 3) Oregon 4) Alabama (obviously this changes after this weekend).

Len (Louisville): 1 Miss State, 2) FSU, 3) Oregon. I was expecting a bigger margin of victory from FSU so I put them at #2. The top 3 are.solid but #4 isn’t getting any easier. My top candidates for the 4 spot are Alabama, TCU & Baylor. I would give this spot to the Big 12 champ but for now I will put Baylor there.

Mike (NC State):1 Florida State, 2 Oregon, 3 Mississippi State, 4 Alabama

John (UNC):  Oregon, Mississippi State and Florida State were victors on Saturday, but Michigan State fell out of the race entirely when they lost to rival Ohio State. I’m not ready to put the Buckeyes in the rankings though, because Alabama has made a great case to be team #4 this week. Actually, make that team #3. With a loss against the Crimson Tide this weekend, Mississippi State falls out of the rankings too, and TCU moves in. Get ready for the Horned Frogs!

Brian (FSU): Right now: 1) Miss St, 2) FSU, 3) Oregon, 4) TCU… of course I think Baylor having the tie-breaker over TCU should count for something.  At year end: 1) Bama, 2) Oregon, 3) Baylor (I think TCU will choke at UT… calling it now), 4) Miss St (With 1 loss, they beat a battered Ole Miss squad but by losing to Bama they avoid the SEC Title game, but resume trumps a 1 loss OSU BIG winner…  the BIG then literally flips a… cannot finish that sentence.) 

Anthony (Syracuse): I am going with Florida State, Mississippi State, Oregon, and TCU. I have zero issues with the way the playoff committee has things right now.  Except… why is Florida State #3?  They beat Notre Dame… who was good enough to propel Arizona State UP three spots.  Meanwhile, Oregon has a MUCH worse loss and just had their Michigan State win downgraded.  I think that they were just trolling #FSUTwitter

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , , ,
12 Nov 2014
4 Comments

Proposed Changes in Sports #1

Everyone has some opinions on what they would like to see change–both in the sports world and outside of it.  For whatever its worth (and it probably is not worth much), there are plenty of changes throughout sports that this author would like to see.  Here is the first:

THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF

Why are there ranked standings for this in November?  As we speak #FSUTWITTER is afire as to how Florida State has dropped from #2 to #3, just by winning its 25th straight game.  Admittedly, the drop makes NO sense.  The team jumping FSU is Oregon, whose signature win was Michigan State, who just lost to Ohio State, who lost to Virginia Tech–the worst team in the ACC Coastal that Florida State currently leads.  The transitive game is risky, but it has to mean something.

My proposed change is that the committee stop releasing actual rankings, and instead just release a top 4, next 6, middle 5, next 5, and last 5 for the first three weeks. To strike a balance between no disclosure and full disclosure, the tiered disclosures would (a) allow some transparency; (b) keep everyone interested, (c) stimulate discussion, (d) encourage speculation as to where teams fit within a tier, and (e) allow the committee to defer having to make actual ranking decisions until teams have played at least 10 games.  Thus, for this week, the committee would issue this alphabetical ranking:

Top 4: Alabama, Florida State, Mississippi State, Oregon

Next 6: Arizona State, Auburn, Baylor, Ohio State, Ole Miss, TCU

Middle 5: Arizona, Georgia, Kansas State, MSU, UCLA

Next 5: Clemson, LSU, Nebraska, Notre Dame, Wisconsin

Last 5: Duke, Georgia Tech, Minnesota, Texas A&M, Utah

This way, the committee would only be indicating a general rank–giving teams a preliminary idea of where they stand.  The top tier would have an idea that the committee seems to like what they have done so far, but no certainty.  And the lack of certainty also adds hope for all teams and fan bases.  And does it really matter right now who is #1?  If #1 or #4 loses, they are in jeopardy.

These rankings mean very little right now because there are so many important games left to play.  In a 12-game season, where the first 4-5 weeks are primarily OOC games, there is little to go by.  Moreover, many top conferences games that fall short of being rivalries (i.e. the slate of games this past Saturday) are played towards the end of the season.

Also, what is the point of having a team at #7, if #7 can leapfrog #4 with a win even if #4 also wins.  And so on.  Why did Arizona State move up to #6  for beating Notre Dame, but Florida State moved down despite beating the same team?  Either beating Notre Dame is impressive or it is not.  That is the problem with rankings.  Each new standings only reveals the weakness in the prior rankings–as the committee seemed to miss the boat.  Only we all know that the committee can only work with what it has at the time.

In March, the committee makes its final decisions in the hours up until the bracket is announced.  The fact that there is any transparency is great.  And, at some point, the committee can and should show its full hand.  The Confidential proposes the third Tuesday of November.  At that point, every team would have at least 10 games played.  That is a fair time to finally put numbers on things.  But in these early weeks of providing guidance, the need for transparency is reduced and the need to know that the committee is only temporarily ranking teams is justified.

Not the most dramatic change ever, but one that this author thinks is appropriate.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in Football, Opinion and tagged , , ,
11 Nov 2014
1 Comment

The Confidential’s ACC Standings Poll: Week 12

It is now November.  The season is down to its final month of regular season games.  The ACC has identified a few teams that are weak (Wake Forest and Syracuse), and several that are mediocre (Virginia, Virginia Tech, Pitt, North Carolina, BC, and perhaps North Carolina State).  Still, that leaves eight teams that are something more than mediocre and let’s see how they stand in the correspondents poll.

Read more…

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Correspondent Poll, Football and tagged , , ,
05 Nov 2014
3 Comments

ACC Roundtable of the Confidential Correspondents: Week 10/11

Welcome to the ACC Roundtable of the ACC Correspondents!  As is and will be the plan for the remainder of the football season, the Confidential correspondents will discuss the Week that was (week 10) and the Week that will be (Week 11) for the ACC and their respective schools.  Special thanks to the Confidential contributors for their comments and opinions.  Tell us what you think below.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE FOR THE ACC IN WEEK 10?

Len (Louisville): The way Miami beat North Carolina. The Canes are finishing strong as Duke Johnson is playing up to his potential & as their freshman QB settles into the starting role. They.are an improved team over the one that played the Cards in the first game of the season.

Mike (NC State): The relative ease with which Miami handled UNC.  I thought Fedora’s team had turned a corner, but now they need to win two of their last three to get into a bowl. If the Canes get to Charlotte to face FSU, that could actually be interesting…they beat Duke but lost to Tech…hmm…

John (UNC):  Louisville really blew it. They had a huge lead over the #2 team in the nation and couldn’t finish. Honestly, I wasn’t surprised the Cardinals led 21-7 at one point. I was more surprised that they didn’t win. The Seminoles, while talented, haven’t seemed as unstoppable as they were last year. They looked extremely vulnerable against a motivated Louisville team playing in front of a home crowd. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if the Noles lose one of their next four games. The remaining schools (Virginia, Miami, Boston College, Florida) have either beaten, or narrowly lost, to some of the hottest programs this year (just ask Georgia).

Brian (FSU):   I was surprised how good UM looked against UNC.  I was already concerned about the UVA game and UM, but now UM is looking like a very dangerous game for the Noles.

Anthony (Syracuse): I really thought that Florida State would play a 60-minute game against Louisville.  Instead, it was a 35 minute game, with a lot of good fortune along the way.  Florida State fans may not want to hear it, but the thing about luck is that it eventually runs out.  Florida State needs to play much better if it is going to repeat as national champions.  Jameis Winston impressed the heck out of me though.  If he can mature off-the-field, he could be an all-time great on-the-field.

WHAT WAS THE BIGGEST SURPRISE/DISAPPOINTMENT FOR YOUR SCHOOL IN WEEK 10?

Len (Louisville): That Parker didn’t score on the first play of the game. When he is up to full speed that would normally be a TD. I was surprised by all the holes in the Cards defense in the second half leaving the Noles wide open for big plays. The game drew a 3.5 TV rating so that bolds will for the ACC & gave the Cards national exposure. It was a big recruiting weekend & the Cards got 4 quality commitments.

Mike (NC State): I was really surprised that Pharoah McKever would be the guy who made the play that snapped the Pack’s ACC drought.  Here’s hoping that the Wolfpack uses this win as a springboard.  It feels really good to stop thinking about the losing streak and realize State is just one win from bowl eligibility. 

John (UNC): I really thought North Carolina would put up a better fight against Miami. I really did. With a two game winning streak and a chance to take the lead in the Coastal Division race, there was so much at stake this past Saturday. Instead of rising to the occasion, the Tar Heels put up an anemic 258 yards and looked lost on both sides of the ball for the first time this year. At least in losses to East Carolina (who saw their Peach Bowl dreams go up in flames with a loss to Temple), Notre Dame and Clemson, the North Carolina offense was dynamic, giving the team a chance to win (unlike the defense). This week it wasn’t. Awful. Just awful.

Brian (FSU): I was surprised that FSU was able to develop a run game against one of the best D’s in the country.  I was disappointed by FSU’s kicker missing a kick finally.

Anthony (Syracuse): After facing a very tough Clemson team, Syracuse quarterback AJ Long continued to look like a true freshman against NC State.  Granted, they had two weeks to prepare for Syracuse.  Even worse, he was not running the ball until the 2nd half.  There is little point in having a mobile QB and taking his feet out of the game.  Not one of Tim Lester’s best offensive coordinator performances.  Then again, he has only had 4, none of them with Syracuse’s two best weapons or a healthy offensive line.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 11 FOR YOUR SCHOOL?

Len (Louisville): If the offense continues to improve & if the Cards can contain BC QB Murphy. The D has been solid against the run so it will be interesting to see how well they handle the best scrambling QB that they will face this seaon. With Dyer turning in back to back strong performances it would be nice to see the WR’s step up their game & score some TD’s against BC with Notre Dame lurking ahead on the schedule. This could be a trap game, if the Cards are caught looking ahead, BC is good enough to get the victory.

Mike (NC State): Curious to see two things: will the momentum carry on? And how well can the Pack deal with that Ga. Tech option?  They stopped the Syracuse rushing attack but this is a whole different wrinkle.  One that they face but once a year.

John (UNC):  I’m excited that it’s a bye week for the Heels. Whatever is going on with the team needs to be addressed. With three games left, and two wins needed for bowl eligibility, it’s not too late to save the season, even though it will be probably be disappointing either way because of the preseason expectations. Matchups against Pittsburgh (4-5) and NC State (5-4) at home are very winnable, and despite the fact that Duke is a much better team than the Tar Heels this year, games between the two schools are almost always close.

Brian (FSU): I would like to say hopefully FSU finally showing up at full strength in a game (last week 7 linebackers were our plus FSU’s safety who led the ACC with tackles), or as close to it as possible, but then word hits that Winston is banged up.  He should still play, but hopefully FSU will find a way to end this game early so Winston can get some rest along with other key players… of course hope is the key word… I am not expecting a big win by FSU.

Anthony (Syracuse): The offense must get better.  The defense has played well for the past several games now.  The offense needs to have one of those “it all comes together against a good opponent” games.  If they don’t have it this week, then the result will be sitting at home for December/January.

WHAT ARE YOU LOOKING FORWARD TO IN WEEK 11 FOR THE ACC?

Len (Louisville): The Cards have already lost at Virginia & in Death Valley, can they get a quality road win in Boston? Can ND win at Arizona State? GT going into NC State should be an interesting game but Duke is in control of the coastal so the meaning isn’t as great. However a three way tie is still possible if Duke losses again.

Mike (NC State): Three ACC teams are clinging by a thread to the top 25: Clemson (21), Duke (24) and Louisville (25).  The one that might fall off:  the Cards, if they are not on their game at Boston College.  And an angry Syracuse could give Duke more than they are bargaining for.

 John (UNC): I’m really interested in the NC State-Georgia Tech and Boston College-Louisville games. Can the Wolfpack seize the momentum from their first ACC win under second year coach, Dave Doeren, or will the Yellow Jackets prove that they belong back in the Top 25? And which team, the Eagles, or the Cardinals, win the Battle of the Birds and take that next step, proving that they belong in the upper echelon of the Atlantic? It will be a fun weekend to watch for sure.

Brian (FSU): I want to see if Louisville will implode or will it stand up and beat a very good BC team.  If BC wins, they are very much still in the Atlantic race.

Anthony (Syracuse): My eyes remain squarely on Florida State and Notre Dame.  If these two want to be in the playoff, they need to start working on style points.  ND has several spots to leapfrog.  Florida State eking by opponents will lead to a first-round playoff elimination.

WHO ARE YOUR FOUR PLAYOFF TEAMS IF THE SEASON ENDED TODAY?

Len (Louisville):1) FSU 2) Miss State 3) Auburn 4) Oregon. The odds are good that the SEC will get two in but which two is still up in the air. The SEC East has been correctly called a dumpster fire with Missouri leading the way with their loss to Indiana. Should they win the CCG how would that effect the way the committee perceives the SEC? Florida thumping Georgia enhances the game between the Noles & Gators so I’m not buying the weak argument that FSU wouldn’t make it in with 1 loss, their schedule isn’t weak. They dont have a win against a top 5 team but you can also make a strong case as to why some of the SEC wins were againat over rated teams.

Mike (NC State):This part is getting a bit easier.  1) Mississippi State, 2) Florida State, 3) Oregon, 4) Auburn.  Although I am dead set against the SEC getting two in, this is where I think we are at this moment.

John (UNC): Ole Miss lost, so in comes Oregon, as predicted and right on schedule. They are joined by Mississippi State (who already beat Auburn, but has tough matchups against Alabama and Ole Miss ahead of them), Florida State (who is only in for now after their shaky play against Louisville) and Michigan State. Again, while another SEC West team may deserve a bid, and certainly the final few games could show this, I still think the committee will go for balance in the Playoff’s first year.

Brian (FSU): If the playoffs started today it would be: 1) Miss St, 2) FSU, 3) Auburn, 4) Bama; but I think at yearend FSU will lose somewhere (they are playing with fire too much this year with how they win, and I am still not sold they will finish unbeaten… UM is the best bet right now, but UF looks dangerous and so does UVA or BC and of course the Coastal Winner).  Also, I think Miss St will lose twice more (Bama and Ole Miss… although I am less certain about this outcome due to the Treadwell injury).  I think Auburn will lose to Bama. I think LSU could shock Bama, but I think Bama pulls it out.  All that said the Final 4 will be in my view: 1) Bama, 2) Oregon, 3) ND, 4) Mich St.

Anthony (Syracuse):My preseason was FSU, Alabama, Oregon, Michigan State.  I may have under-appreciated the Big XII, which has TCU and Kansas State primed to have someone enter the mix.  If the season ended today, then I think the committee nailed it with Miss St., FSU, Auburn, and Oregon.  All I know is that this system is working great.  Every game matters, yet we’ll decide the champion on the field.  #5 through #8 will have some reason to complain, but they had a chance to control their own destiny and tripped up.  No undefeated team (save Marshall) will be left out.

What do you think?  How would you answer these questions?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, ACC Roundtable, Football, FSU Correspondent, Louisville Correspondent, Opinion, Syracuse correspondent, UNC Correspondent and tagged , , ,

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