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More On Paterno

The latest news in the Penn State scandal is that Joe Paterno is not going to resign and that it is likely the Board of Trustees for Penn State will investigate (i.e. allow him to finish the season) before taking action.  And students in Penn State are out on his lawn supporting him.  Unreal.  A colossal mistake.

Imagine if Paterno said this on Monday evening:

Regardless of what I did or did not do in the past, and regardless of whether it was right or wrong, it is in the best interests of everyone for the focus to shift away from issues about Joe Paterno coaching.  Instead, the focus should be on #1 helping identify and counsel the victims; #2 ensuring justice is done; and #3 restoring the good name of Penn State.  In that order.  Joe Paterno simply is not on that list.

If my conduct is currently judged by anyone to have fallen short, I apologize for that now.  While my natural inclination is to try to fight to convince you of my side of the story, I cannot let myself be a distraction or obstacle to the most important goals being reached.  For those worried about my legacy, the legacy of Joe Paterno is not more important than the victims, justice, and Penn State.  And, if my legacy is going to be tarnished, it is going to be because of what I did or did not do several years ago and NOT because of what I did or did not do this week.  

For those talking about football right now, stop.  Realize that football is not the most important thing in life.  I certainly have never said it was.  And nothing that I have done in the past was based on putting Penn State football ahead of any other interests.  And, regardless of what you might think, Penn State can win football games without Joe Paterno.  So you need to stop worrying about football and re-focus on the three priorities here.  You can and should support the team on Saturday and in the future–those players have never been accused of doing anything wrong.  And although football games are low on the list of priorities, I am not going to allow controversy regarding me to interfere with them.

This is certainly not how I wanted my career to end.  But I have to acknowledge that I need to move on to a greater calling right now.  And that is using whatever is left of my good name to help the victims.  Even that might not be good enough in the end, but as a fighter I have to do what I can to win that battle.  Because that fight needs to start immediately, I hereby resign from my position with Penn State.

The reaction?  Of course, many would not be satisfied with that.  There are some who think Paterno should go to jail.

Most people, however, are in the middle and would feel that a self-imposed punishment at this juncture would be appropriate.  There would also be many people enraged that Paterno fell on the sword–even if it is a sword that he created unnecessarily many years ago.  And those people would not waver in their support for a quasi-martyr.

And if he truly did devote his efforts to helping these victims and other victims, his legacy would be restored over time.  America is always willing to forgive those that sincerely ask for it.  Eventually.

But that did not happen.

Instead, Joe Paterno is digging in–forcing the Board of Trustees to do something.  It is clear that Joe Paterno’s integrity is really just a myth.  Looking back, Joe Paterno was always looking out for Joe Paterno.  From there, it is not hard to extrapolate that he did not report this crime because it would have reflected poorly on him–hiring a pedophile and employing him for all those years.  Moving to less important matters, it becomes apparent that his continued  coaching is entirely about ensuring his place in the hierarchy of football coaches.  Even if it means being a detached coach in the press box without a headset.  As long as the win total grows.  The library donation was to immortalize his name, not to further education.  And so on.

Anything that happens to Joe Paterno’s legacy at this point is well deserved.   Needless to say, that legacy has peaked.  It is just a matter of how far he is going to let it fall before (finally) doing the right thing.

 



 


 


 

Joe Paterno Must Resign

By now, most everyone has read the news about the scandal at Penn State.  If you want to know more details, find a copy of the grand jury report.  No link here.  It is disturbing.  In any event, The Confidential has reached the conclusion that Paterno should resign immediately.

Paterno was probably not under a legal obligation to report the abuse that he did not witness.  His status as a non-supervisor seems to prevent same.  And it is apparent that there is at least some debate as to whether Paterno was morally obligated to call the police.  While the overwhelming majority of the comments are zealously advocating that he was morally obligated to do so, there is a reason why these incidents are under-reported to the point that states must pass laws to compel reporting.  For whatever reason, human beings are able to talk themselves out of reporting crimes that they should.  If Paterno deviated from his moral responsibility, his deviation is not unique.

What is unique is that Paterno is entrusted to run a major football program.  Running such a program requires him to police the interactions between his players and boosters.  It requires him to look out for the best interests of the 18- to 22-year-old men that parents entrust to him.  Most of all, it requires him to be engaged with the program. What this scandal demonstrates is that Paterno has not been engaged with the program for some time now.

It is unfathomable that Paterno allowed Sandusky to come anywhere near Paterno’s program.  There were reports of an incident of some nature occurring in 1998.  Even if Sandusky was cleared, one would think that Paterno would not want him anywhere near the program.

Regardless, even if Paterno’s first knowledge was truly 2002, that should have been enough.  Paterno should have wanted that guy to be 1,000,000 yards away from his campus, much less the weight room and football facilities.  The fact that Sandusky was able to continue to use these facilities at any point after 2002 suggests that Paterno either did not care that he was using the facilities or did not know.  If he did not care, then this means that abuse of a child is a non-issue for Paterno.  That’s bad.  If he did not know, then this means that Paterno is simply not capable of running the program.  How can he NOT know?

If Sandusky was paying Penn State players, would Paterno know?  He has to.  If Sandusky was convincing Penn State players to use steroids, would Paterno know?  He has to.  And if Paterno does not know that the guy he reported to his supervisor as abusing a child was not in his locker room, that’s a failure.  A football coach in today’s game has to know a lot more about his players than how fast they are and how well they block/catch/tackle.

Even worse, Paterno is routinely entrusted with youth.  While his players are not as young as Sandusky’s victims, they are still the young sons of parents.  Can parents rely on Paterno to make sound decisions about their kids’ well being?  If something happens with one of their kids, will Paterno take action or will he refer it upstream and forget.  As a parent, there is an easier solution than wondering, you tell your kid to go elsewhere.  This will hurt recruiting.

But this is not about recruiting.  This current issue is not about recruiting and wins.  It is about young men that will be permanently scarred by what happened in Paterno’s locker room.  It is about whether Paterno can be entrusted to run the program anymore.  Even if there is an argument to be made that Paterno did not have a duty to call the police, are we really to believe that he did not have a duty or obligation to follow-up to see what happened?  If not a duty, perhaps an innate curiosity to see “whatever happened to that investigation”?   But… nothing.  As noted above, either he did not know or he did not care.  Only two choices here.  Neither are acceptable.

That’s not the Paterno that is morally superior to anyone.  That’s a Paterno that is running a program from the press box, only without the headphones to connect him in.  And if he is not connected to the program, then he should not be running it.  The sad thing is that we are not talking about the future, but about the past.  His resignation is not due, it is overdue.

This does not mean that others do not deserve blame.  The perpetrator of these crimes naturally comes first.  And there may be facts that show others are more or less responsible than Paterno.  But long before the full story comes out (if ever), Paterno needs to step down and let someone else do the job.  The new coach may win fewer games and be less of a legend.  But, for now, Penn State will have to settle for a head coach who is engaged with the program on a daily basis.

ACC Football Rankings: November 7, 2011

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of November 7, 2011:

1.  Clemson–With the week off, no reason to demote.  Need to be focused against Wake Forest this week.

2. Virginia Tech–The fact that Miami handled Duke easily makes that narrow victory look a bit worse… but not enough to drop in the standings.

3. Georgia Tech–Florida State appears back on track.  Going to need to play well to hold them out of the #3 spot.  But with a game against the Hokies coming up, the focus is on rising to #2.

4. Florida State–Another dominant win, this time over hapless Boston College.  These are important wins for re-establishing the brand though.  A win over Miami would be huge.

5. Miami–A dismantling of Duke is nice, but let’s see how they do against Florida State.

6. Virginia–At 6-3, the Cavs are now bowl-eligible and looking good.

7. North Carolina State– Everyone else lost.  Not sure anyone deserved to be the #7 team. 

8.  Wake Forest– Played Notre Dame tough, but still a winnable game.   Needs just one win for bowl eligibility.

9.  Syracuse–two road losses in a row have Syracuse still a win away from bowl eligibility.

10.  North Carolina–no excuse for getting shutout.  This team has more talent than that.

11. Pittsburgh— Played Cincinnati tough, but in the end the loss of Ray Graham was too much to overcome.

12.  DukeAfter taking the Hokies to the final minutes, Duke did not show up against Miami.  At 3-6, the bowl dreams are down to a flicker.

13. Boston College–they caught Florida State at a bad time, as the Seminoles are on a roll right now.

14. Maryland- dark days in College Park.  

ACC Football Predictions: Games for November 5,2011

Here are The Confidential’s football predictions for games featuring two ACC teams (so as to not jinx any conference members):

Miami v Duke.

Miami has been a very difficult team to figure out.  Some losses make sense, others do not.  Duke is also hard to figure out.  While we saw Duke performing well this year at times, who saw a close game against Virginia Tech?  Upon further review, it probably says more about Virginia Tech than Duke.

Miami 24-Duke 13.

Florida St. v Boston College

Fresh off a win over equally hapless Maryland, it would be nice to predict an upset over the Seminoles.  No chance.  Florida State will roll.

Florida St. 38-Boston College 7*

North Carolina v North Carolina St.

I get that North Carolina State is at home.  I really do.  I also get that the Wolfpack are going to be emotionally charged up for this game.  I just think that North Carolina is a better team.  The dismantling of Wake Forest was impressive.  It is this year anyway.

North Carolina 35-NC State 27

Virginia v Maryland

Maryland is just awful.  I mean how bad is it when you lose to Boston College at home?  Boston College was a disaster itself.  This week will be a test of whether the Terps have quit on Randy Edsall.  It doesn’t look good.
Virginia 24-Maryland 16
* Due to a glitch, The Confidential simply neglected to make a timely prediction of the game.  There is no clairvoyance here.  We cheated.  All in good fun…

Future Big East vs. Future ACC

The recent addition of Syracuse and Pittsburgh to the ACC is great news for the future.  It is hoped that this move will rejuvenate football, strengthen basketball, add new lucrative markets, solidify the northern core of the conference, and perhaps lead to Notre Dame joining to really add juice to football.  That’s the easy part.

The fact of the matter is that it also weakens the Big East.  While the Big East was likely to lose a team or two anyway, the ACC’s move means that the Big East lost four total teams.  In addition, three of those teams–all but TCU–are great basketball schools too.  The Big East’s loss is the ACC’s gain.  But, forget basketball for a moment, this is all about football.

As of yesterday, the Big East has apparently sent out 6 invitations.  It is expected that these are football only invitations to Boise St., Air Force, and Navy.  It is also expected that these are all-sports invitations to UCF, Houston, and SMU.  While many have characterized this as a move of desperation, how will the future Big East stack up against the future ACC in football moving forward?

Actually, let’s take a step back.  From a prestige standpoint, the new ACC will absolutely crush the Big East.  Even the middle of the pack of the ACC will be name schools, such as Virginia, Maryland, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Syracuse, etc.  These are schools that have had football success in the past 15 to 20 years.  BCS appearances.  Bowl games.  National titles even.

Also, this is not about marketing and money.  The new Big East will have new markets, but not domination in markets.  Nobody carries NYC, home of Rutgers.  Louisville splits Kentucky with, well, Kentucky.  Cincy is second chair to Ohio State.  Houston and SMU are behind Texas, Texas A&M, and sometimes Oklahoma in the major Texas markets.  Boise St. is a small market.  Navy and Air Force are national, but nobody is turning in to watch Navy play anyone other than Army or Notre Dame.  USF and UCF still have to get over the big three in Miami, FSU, and Florida.  Needless to say, this is not about $$$ yet.  The ACC wins hands down.

But let’s just look at it from an on-field football performance scenario.  According to the CBS, the new Big East will have the current #5, #14, and #23 teams in the AP poll.  The new ACC will have #11, #12, and #22.  That’s pretty close.  Perhaps even an edge to the Big East?

To go beyond the top 25, one needs to look at the CBS Rankings.  While The Confidential does not pretend that these have any real merit, it is one (albeit very subjective and debatable) measuring stick.

The new Big East has #4 (Boise St.), #8 (Houston), #26 (Cincy), #42 (SMU), #47 (Rutgers), #53 (USF),  #67 (Louisville), #78 (Air Force), #81 (UCF), #92 (UConn), and #93 (Navy)

The new ACC has #10 (Clemson), #12 (Virginia Tech), #24 (Georgia Tech), #32 (UNC), #41 (FSU), #45 (Miami), #46 (Wake Forest), #51 (Syracuse), #58 (Virginia), #75 (NC State), #77 (Pitt), #87 (Duke), #101 (Maryland), and #104 (BC).

Top 25: ACC 3, Big East 2 (could easily be 3)

Top 50: ACC 7 (could be 8 with Syracuse), Big East 5.

Edge for the ACC.  Although it should be noted that the ACC does have more teams.  And the Big East does not have teams in the bottom 25.

The bigger question, of course, is whether Boise St., Houston, and SMU can sustain their current rankings.  The ACC knows that it will have 2 or 3 ranked teams every year.  By moving to 12 teams, the Big East makes it far more likely that they will avoid the embarrassment of finishing a season shut out of the top 25.

Finally, let’s not ignore schedule here.  If all teams played a schedule at the same level, there is little doubt that these rankings would get shaken up considerably.  Boise St. has played Georgia.  Cincinnati lost to NC State, despite the 50 placement gap in these CBS rankings.  Cincy destroyed NC State, but lost to struggling Tennessee.  FSU lost to Oklahoma.  Miami lost to Kansas State.  UNC beat Rutgers.  However, given that the Big East teams will not have the elite opponents on the schedule, they are going to benefit by having a better, but emptier, record.  This is something that the ACC will just have to overcome. But, all-in-all, it sure looks like the Big East is not going to fall off the map here.

What do you think?

Proposal to “Cure” the BCS

The BCS annoys many people, but it was designed to ensure that the #1 team and the team #2 team face each other whenever possible.  Before the BCS, the bowl tie-ins created a situation where the #1 team and the #2 team might not play.  In recent years, there has usually been an ability to match the #1 and #2 teams.  The debate has turned to how to decide the #1 and #2 teams, particularly where a Cincinnati, TCU, or Boise St. was left out.  But, for the most part, the BCS has worked.

The problem for the BCS is that it awards money to conferences based on the matchups NOT featuring team #1 and team #2.  The six major conferences get paid no matter what.  This has been unfair to the major conferences when an 8-4 UConn team has gotten to represent the Big East.  This was unfair to the conferences that had 10 win teams placed in inferior bowls or matched up against an inferior foe.  This is also unfair to the lesser conferences, that have watched 10 or 11 win teams miss out while a worse team gets in.

The Confidential has a solution:

  1. The SEC, Big 10, ACC, Big XII, and Pac-12 get AQ bids with a full share payout.
  2. The Big East and MWC-CUSA are “semi-qualified conferences” get AQ bids with a full share payout, except 3, 4, and 5 below.
  3. The BCS representative of the Big East and MWC-CUSA merger must have 2 or fewer losses to participate.
  4. If either or both conferences cannot produce a champion that qualifies, the BCS is free to take a different team.
  5. Where a different team is taken, the conference of that school and the conference that lost its AQ status for that year (and only that year) split a share.
  6. If either of the semi-qualified conferences place a team in a BCS bowl for 5 straight years, the standard will be relaxed to 3 or fewer losses.
  7. If either of the semi-qualified conferences fail to place a team in a BCS bowl for 3 out of any 5 consecutive years, the BCS conferences can–by majority vote–exclude them from semi-qualification.
  8. There is no prohibition against any conference having 3 teams in BCS games in any given year.

This would allow the Big East to stay regional by taking Temple, Navy, East Carolina, UCF, Memphis, SMU, and Houston.  The Big East can decide which ones get full membership vs. football only.

The other conference can have 10-20 teams, led by Boise St., that would anchor the West and Midwest (except SMU/Houston).

The merits of BCS membership would be decided by the teams and conferences and provide for long-term stability.

The 5 BCS conferences will not be stuck with an 8 or 9 win team from the semi-qualified conferences, and will instead get to have its own superior teams placed that year.  Plus, in those circumstances, more money than under current system.

ACC Football Rankings

This is particularly complex with Pitt and Syracuse not yet in the ACC, but it can still be done.  Here is how we view the ACC football schools as of October 31, 2011:

1.  Clemson–The Confidential is sticking with Clemson here.  Losing to Georgia Tech was disappointing, but not disastrous.

2. Virginia Tech–hard to move the Hokies after they only barely beat Duke.

3. Georgia Tech–the win over Clemson gets things back on track.

4. Florida State–dominant win over North Carolina State suggests that better times are ahead.

5. Miami–the loss to Virginia is a step backward.

6. North Carolina– Almost moved the Tarheels ahead of Miami.  Impressive win over Wake Forest.

7.  Syracuse– Hugely disappointing loss to Louisville.  They get the edge with the win over Wake Forest.

8.  Wake Forest–Needed that North Carolina win to get to the next level.

9.  Virginia– With wins over Miami and Georgia Tech, this is the one team that may be significantly underrated at this point.  The Confidential is feeling a bit guilty here.

10. Pittsburgh— A win over UConn without their best player gets them the nod here, but it may be a short-lived stay this high.

11.  DukePlaying the Hokies close is better than getting shellacked by the Seminoles.  We still expect NC State and Duke to flip.

12. North Carolina State–hard to not penalize a team that did not score.  I am sure the Wolfpack will rise up a few slots soon enough.

13. Boston College– the head-to-head matters, but the fact that Maryland just seems to have quit on Edsall carries the day.

14. Maryland- Beating Boston College to go to 3-5 was imperative.  This team is reeling.

No ACC Teams in New AP Top 10

The October 30, 2011, AP poll has now been released:

AP Top 25 Ranking

Rank Team Record Pts Last Week
1. LSU (47) 8-0 1439 1
2. Alabama (10) 8-0 1401 2
3. Oklahoma St. 8-0 1305 3
4. Stanford 8-0 1278 4
5. Boise St. (1) 7-0 1241 5
6. Oregon 7-1 1148 7
7. Oklahoma 7-1 1096 11
8. Arkansas 7-1 1035 8
9. Nebraska 7-1 976 13
10. South Carolina 7-1 861 14
11. Clemson 8-1 851 6
12. Virginia Tech 8-1 755 15
13. Michigan 7-1 718 17
14. Houston 8-0 611 18
15. Michigan St. 6-2 586 9
16. Penn St. 8-1 553 21
17. Kansas St. 7-1 536 10
18. Georgia 6-2 446 22
19. Wisconsin 6-2 420 12
20. Arizona St. 6-2 384 23
21. USC 6-2 323 20
22. Georgia Tech 7-2 230 NR
23. Cincinnati 6-1 128 24
24. West Virginia 6-2 111 25
25. Auburn 6-3 107 NR
Others Receiving Votes:

  • Texas 99,
  • Southern Miss 67,
  • Washington 52,
  • Ohio St. 37,
  • TCU 26,
  • Texas A&M 25,
  • Florida St. 4,
  • Notre Dame 1
ACC observations:
  • It is not at all surprising that Clemson dropped in the polls, given the loss to Georgia Tech.
  • And it is perfectly reasonable for Georgia Tech to move back into the standings at #22.
  • Despite narrowly beating Duke, Virginia Tech moved up a few spots in the standings as well.
  • And Florida State’s big win over North Carolina State has them back receiving a few votes.
  • As such, the ACC has 4 of the top 32 teams right now.  Decent, but not outstanding.
General observations:
  • Hard to disagree with the top 5 right now.
  • Boise St. is a BIG Georgia fan, needless to say.
  • Kind of surprising to see Michigan State drop below Michigan.  The Spartans just got done with a four-game stretch involving Ohio State, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nebraska.  Going 3-1 is fairly impressive.  That Notre Dame loss certainly hurts.
  • The new Big 12 has 5 of the top 30 teams.  The new SEC has 7 of the top 31 teams, including 4 in the top 10.

And then there were none… Clemson loses to Georgia Tech

They say that college football is great because every week is a playoff game.  The Confidential tends to agree.  With a few exceptional situations or seasons, only undefeated teams have a chance of being one of the top two teams and, therefore, eligible to play for the national championship.  The season starts with all undefeated teams and gradually whittles its way down to just a few.  Going into Week #9, the ACC was fortunate enough to still have an undefeated team: Clemson.  After Week 9, however, the ACC has been eliminated from the national title picture because Clemson lost to Georgia Tech, 31-17.

At 7-2, the Georgia Tech win over now 8-1 Clemson should not be seen as a total surprise.  And the story should be about Georgia Tech.  Unfortunately, college football is a sport of tiers, with Clemson vying to join the top tier for 2011.  So, with all due respect to Georgia Tech, the lead on this story is Clemson losing, rather than Georgia Tech winning.

But The Confidential will give Georgia Tech its due praise.  After losing at Virginia and Miami, it looked as if the Yellow Jackets 6-0 start was a bit of a mirage.  Neither Virginia nor Miami is in the conference title picture.  With Clemson, Virginia Tech, and Georgia remaining on the schedule, there was certainly a chance of finishing with a very mediocre season result.  In defeating Clemson, Georgia Tech took the first step towards avoiding a second-half collapse.

Amazingly, Georgia Tech was able to beat Clemson with virtually no passing game.  Although Georgia Tech does not put up significant passing numbers in most games, averaging about 120 yards per game, they only passed for 60 yards against Clemson.  That’s not a misprint.  60 yards.  Instead, this win was a product of 300 rushing yards, with more than half coming from quarterback Tevin Washington.  Although he has averaged about 60 yards per game rushing, Washington ran for 174 yards against Clemson.

Another story was turnovers.  As it often the case with a football game at any level, Clemson’s four turnovers told much of the story. In the first quarter, Clemson recovered a punt at its own 36 yard line.  On the second play, it fumbled, allowing Georgia Tech to start a drive at the 19 yard line.   This led to a touchdown.  After intercepting a Georgia Tech pass in the fourth quarter in a two-possession game, Clemson had the ball at the Georgia Tech 9-yard line.  On the very next play, Clemson threw an interception.  Give Georgia Tech credit though.  After getting that 4th quarter interception, they marched the ball down the field in a drive consuming nearly 9 minutes of fourth-quarter time.  Even though that drive did not result in a score, it gave Clemson too little time to mount a comeback.

And just like that, the ACC’s hopes of having a team in the national title game evaporated.  Clemson remains in the hunt for a BCS bowl appearance.  The November 10 matchup between Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech will go a long way towards determining who plays in the ACC championship game.

 

Boston College Gets First 2011 ACC Win

This has been a tough season for Boston College.  No doubt about it. After going bowling last year, Boston College traveled to College Park to take on a Maryland team that has been only slightly better this year.  This made-for-radio battle between two struggling teams was Boston College’s best remaining chance for a win over an FBS school and a conference win.  To its credit, Boston College rose to the occasion and beat Maryland, 28-17.

In fairness, Boston College has been playing without standout running back, Montel Harris.  Harris had nearly 3,600 rushing yards coming into this season.  Today’s win was fueled by 243 yards of rushing from sophomore Rolandan Finch.  Finch nearly doubled his season rushing output in this one game.

With the weather inclement, Boston College was unable to mount any type of passing game.  Boston College attempted 12 passes for only 32 yards.  That is not a misprint–32 yards of passing!  This Boston College run was all about the running game.  With Finch and Andre Williams combining for more than 300 yards of rushing.

For Maryland, the season just gets worse.  Maryland drops to 2-6 overall, with wins against a suspension-depleted Miami team opening week and FCS Towson.  This was the fourth straight conference loss for the Terrapins.  Of course, the first three losses were against unbeaten Clemson, highly ranked Georgia Tech, and Florida St.  But today’s loss got the much-easier final stretch of games off to a poor start.

In fact, it will be interesting to see what the fan reaction to Randy Edsall will be.  Working in Edsall’s favor is the fact that Maryland was 2-10 in 2009.  However, sandwiched around that season were bowl games.  This is not a historically bad season, as was the case with Rich Rodriguez in Michigan, who never could recover the confidence of the fan base after a very poor first year.  But Maryland was 9-4 last year and went bowling.  The fan base has a basis to argue that the cupboard could not have been THAT bare.  Should be interesting times in College Park as the season winds down.

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