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Archive for the category “Predictions”

16 Dec 2012

ACC Goes Bowling: Duke vs. Cincinnati in the Belk Bowl

The bowl season began yesterday with a few battles flying well below the radar.  Moving beyond that mixed metaphor, however, it is time to begin analyzing the various bowl matchups featuring present and future members of the ACC.  Today’s featured matchup is the Belk Bowl, which will feature Duke and Cincinnati.  The game will be played at 6:30 p.m. on Thursday, December 27.

How they got here (courtesy of http://www.jhowell.net/cf/scores/Sked2012.htm) :

Duke (ACC)
9/1 Sat vs. Florida International W 46 26
9/8 Sat @ Stanford L 13 50
9/15 Sat vs. North Carolina Central W 54 17
9/22 Sat vs. Memphis W 38 14
9/29 Sat @ *Wake Forest W 34 27
10/6 Sat vs. *Virginia W 42 17
10/13 Sat @ *Virginia Tech L 20 41
10/20 Sat vs. *North Carolina W 33 30
10/27 Sat @ *Florida State L 7 48
11/3 Sat vs. *Clemson L 20 56
11/17 Sat @ *Georgia Tech L 24 42
11/24 Sat vs. *Miami (Florida) L 45 52
12/27 Thu vs. Cincinnati @ Charlotte, NC Belk Bowl

6-6

 376 420

Cincinnati (Big East)
9/6 Thu vs. *Pittsburgh W 34 10
9/15 Sat vs. Delaware State W 23 7
9/29 Sat vs. Virginia Tech W 27 24 @ Landover, MD
10/6 Sat vs. Miami (Ohio) W 52 14
10/13 Sat vs. Fordham W 49 17
10/20 Sat @ Toledo L 23 29
10/26 Fri @ *Louisville L 31 34
11/3 Sat vs. *Syracuse W 35 24
11/10 Sat @ *Temple W 34 10
11/17 Sat vs. *Rutgers L 3 10
11/23 Fri vs. *South Florida W 27 10
12/1 Sat @ *Connecticut W 34 17
12/27 Thu vs. Duke @ Charlotte, NC Belk Bowl

9-3

 372 206

Key Stats:

PASSING YARDS

Cincinnati:  231.0 pg, 63rd Overall
Duke: 277.6 pg, 32nd Overall

RUSHING YARDS

Cincinnati: 199.8 pg, 32nd Overall
Duke: 119.0 pg, 107th Overall

POINTS FOR

Cincinnati: 31.0 pg, 48th Overall
Duke: 31.3 pg, 45th Overall

POINTS AGAINST

Cincinnati: 17.2 pg, 12th Overall

Duke: 35.0, 104th Overall
Analysis:
While the Confidential always likes to be a “homer” if possible.  So perhaps the analysis here is slanted by that.
Duke has played a much tougher schedule, but they lost many of the games against good opponents.  Often, by a lot.  Duke beat one bowl team, North Carolina.  Cincinnati beat three, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech.
But one factor favoring Duke in this game is that Cincy has lost its coach, Butch Jones.  We have seen Cincinnati (and many other teams) come out flat when playing a bowl game under such circumstances.  On the other hand, West Virginia rode Bill Stewart to a Fiesta Bowl victory and the removal of his interim head coach tag.  So even that one negative aspect is more of a question mark than certainty.
Another factor favoring Duke is the proximity to the location.  Duke fans should be relishing this opportunity to see the Blue Devils in this game.  They will have home field advantage.  Too much emotion on Duke’s side for this one.
Prediction:  Duke 28, Cincinnati 27.
Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
07 Dec 2012
3 Comments

Exit Fees and Liquidated Damages

Many people are confident that the ACC will be able to enforce its exit fee against Maryland.  Many people are confident that the ACC will not be able to enforce its exit fee against Maryland.  Regardless of which side is correct, it is important to understand the issue.

Most helpful to a non-lawyer is this recent article from the businessofcollegesports.com.  The article provides a great layman’s understanding of something called liquidated damages:

In legal terms, conference exit fees are known as liquidated damages.  Liquidated damages provisions are commonly added to contracts.  They set the amount a party to the contract must pay in the event it breaches the contract.  Liquidated damages provisions are useful because they theoretically save the parties the time and expense of litigating the amount of damages caused by the breach.

But, the amount of liquidated damages specified in a contract cannot be randomly selected.  Courts will generally only enforce liquidated damages provisions if (1) the anticipated damages in the event of a breach are difficult to ascertain at the time of contracting, and (2) the amount of liquidated damages is a reasonable estimate of the actual damages that would likely be caused by a breach.  If a liquidated damages provision does not meet this test it is deemed a penalty and is unenforceable.

The ACC’s current exit fee is not $50,000,000.  Instead, as the article notes, the ACC’s exit fee is “three times the conference’s total operating budget at the time of withdrawal.”  As for Maryland, this means the amount is roughly $52M.

Where the Confidential differs is the analysis of whether the exit fees satisfy (1) and (2).  The author does not seem to question (1).  Indeed, how exactly does one quantify the damages where a founding member of a conference leaves?  With all the conference realignment discussion, people talk about TV revenue.  But what about the unquantifiable damage to a conference when it is perceived to be unstable?  When there are daily rumors regarding this or that member leaving?  When there are discussions about whether the conference will cease to exist.  When schools like Wake Forest have, really, no other option at all in the conference realignment scenario.  Where it is questionable whether Pitt, BC, Syracuse, and other schools are certain to have a landing spot.  Does ESPN want to renegotiate now, when it might have to renegotiate in two weeks if two schools leave?  Do kids want to play for a school that may go from “ACC,” as it is currently thought of,” to its current weakened position in comparison to other conferences?  If UVA and Georgia Tech leave the ACC, what does that do for Florida State’s academic reputation?  How can you quantify these things?

You cannot.  Which is where exit fees come from.  Instead of trying to figure that all out, you agree on a number ahead of time.

As for (2), the article states “that [t]he requirement to pay three times the conference’s operating budget does not appear to be related in any way to the actual amount of damages the ACC would suffer if a member withdraws.”  Liquidated damages clauses often just state a sum certain.  The ACC provision is actually tethered to something that relates to the size and wealth of the ACC at the time a member departs.  If the ACC grows and becomes even more successful, it has more to lose.  If the ACC contracts, it has less to lose and the liquidated damages (exit fees) decrease.  Moreover, the schools have a say in the conference’s operating budget.  If the schools want the conference to scale back operations, they can do so.

Perhaps the ACC could have tied its exit fees to TV revenue.  But this excludes the damage to the ACC’s name.  Is there any question that swapping Louisville for Maryland is a loss with respect to academics, cohesion, and the appearance of the ACC?  The ACC has been damaged beyond anything that can be measured in TV revenue.  The ACC is perceived to be on life support, forcing Presidents to make statements regarding rumors, etc.  Maybe a more reasonable number would be 1 or 2 or 1.5 times the operating budget, but the operating budget is a conservative measure to calculate damages.

Moreover, people analyzing this situation speak in terms of “black and white.”  Lawyers, at least good ones, know that life (and the law) are not black and white.  As the litigation moves forward, the parties will likely have a sense as to where the judge is leaning on legal issues.  Will the judge allow the jury to resolve the question of whether the exit fee is reasonable?  Will the judge decide it as a matter of law? On an issue like this, the judge is likely to defer a definitive ruling and give the parties a chance to settle based on an expectation of what these rulings would be.  In the meantime, nobody should presume that a certain result is inevitable.  It is doubtful that there will even be a result.  Someone will blink.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Conference Realignment, Opinion, Predictions and tagged , , , , ,
29 Nov 2012

ACC Football Predictions for December 1, 2012

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  Anyway, last week the Confidential went 8-2, improvidently trusting Clemson and Florida State, improving the overall record to a respectable 86-32.  Pretty interesting game tonight, as the ACC’s Louisville battles the Big Ten’s Rutgers in a battle for the Big East Championship.  On to the week 14 predictions:

Pittsburgh (5-6) @ South Florida (3-9), 7:00 p.m.  The Panthers are desperate for a win to get bowl eligible.  The Bulls are over-matched, but playing on Senior Night for an embattled head coach.  This probably should go one of two ways, with the emotion for South Florida either being very high or very low.  So the Confidential with out-think itself by predicting the emotion to be merely medium.  If so, Pitt wins.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 31, South Florida 13.

ACC Championship Game

#13 Florida State (10-2) v Georgia Tech (6-6), 8:00 p.m.  The ACC having a 7-6 Georgia Tech in the BCS is only good to the extent that it means a bigger payout.  In all other respects, it would be an embarrassment.  Of course, if Georgia Tech loses, they would seek a waiver to play in a bowl game, despite being 6-7.  In the end, they could end up 6-8.  And that’s your ACC Championship Game entrant for the Coastal Division everyone!  Florida State, however, lost disappointingly to Florida.  A few coaches are either leaving or interviewing for head coach positions elsewhere.  Promotions are nice, but distracting.  Closer than expected here.  Prediction: Florida State 35, Georgia Tech 24.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , ,
22 Nov 2012
2 Comments

ACC Football Predictions for Thanksgiving Weekend 2012

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  Not sure whether there should be analysis of Louisville or UConn…. ha ha ha.  Anyway, last week the Confidential went 6-2, improving the overall record to a respectable 78-30.  On to the week 13 predictions:

Friday, November 23, 2012

Syracuse (6-5) @ Temple (4-6), 11:00 a.m.   You’ll have to stop your Black Friday shopping a bit early to catch this one.  Syracuse showed that its football is definitely on the upswing with a win on the road against Missouri, who was itself desperate for a win.  The Orange are banged up and this is Temple’s final game of the season.  An upset would not be shocking, but the Confidential will lean toward the ‘Cuse keeping the momentum going.  Prediction: Syracuse 33, Temple 21.

Saturday November 24, 2012

Georgia Tech (6-5) @ #3 Georgia (10-1), 12:00 p.m.  Maybe rivalry week allows teams to throw out the records.  But it is hard to really feel like Georgia Tech can win this game.  They have been playing a bit better lately.  Still, this one has a chance to get ugly.  Prediction: Georgia 30, Georgia Tech 17.

Virginia (4-7) @ Virginia Tech (5-6), 12:00 p.m.  As much as the Hokies have struggled all year, they are one win away from a bowl.  Virginia is an enigma still–no idea which version of the team will show up from week-to-week.  The Hokies have home field advantage, which has to be worth something.  Prediction: Virginia Tech 21, Virginia 17.

#21 Rutgers (9-1) @ Pittsburgh (4-6), 12:00 p.m.  This has been a great week for Rutgers and a 10th win would just be the icing on the cake.  Pitt must win to have a chance at a bowl.  No matter what happens, Rutgers gets to play Louisville for the BCS bowl berth next week, so perhaps the Scarlet Knights will come out flat.  Upset special here.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 24, Rutgers 20.

Miami (6-5) @ Duke (6-5), 12:30 p.m.  The Blue Devils have been coasting.  Miami has been another hard team to figure out.  With the Hurricanes pulling the plug on the post-season, it will be interesting to see whether they show up.  If Al Golden can get them motivated, Miami should win.  For Duke, this game presents the opportunity to regain some much needed momentum.  Prediction: Miami 31 , Duke 28.

Maryland (4-7) @ North Carolina (7-4), 3:00 p.m.  The only thing more surprising than Maryland leaving the ACC is the lack of anyone really caring.  Somewhat odd, really.  The Terps should have rivalries after all these years, but seemingly do not.  For Randy Edsall, a win here would be a great way to celebrate the offseason.  For the Tar Heels, bowl ineligibility means that this is their last chance to play football for several months.  Prediction: North Carolina 30, Maryland 10.

Boston College (2-9) @ North Carolina State (6-5), 3:00 p.m.  Well, another version of the Tom O’Brien Bowl.  Give credit to Boston College, they have played tough two weeks in a row.  A coaching change is inevitable, but the team has not quit at all.  An upset to send the coaching staff off would be a great way to finish the season.  The Wolfpack could really use another win though.  If they can’t beat BC…. well, do you really deserve a bowl?  Prediction: North Carolina State 24, Boston College 20.

Vanderbilt (7-4) @ Wake Forest (5-6), 3:30 p.m.  The Demon Deacons are desperate for a win to get bowl eligible.  Vanderbilt has its bowl game locked up.  Another reason for Vandy to be comfortable is that they are coming off the high of beating Tennessee.  Badly.  At the same time, Wake Forest has been as unimpressive as possible in getting to 5 wins.  It’s just hard to envision Wake pulling this one out.  Prediction: Vanderbilt 24, Wake Forest 17.

#6 Florida (10-1) @ #10 Florida State (10-1), 3:30 p.m.  The game of the week–two top 10 teams battling to see who gets to 10-1.  Florida has now been impressive in his recent cupcake wins.  Florida State has been only slightly better.  Neither team is peaking right now.  If the Seminoles want to be considered “back,” this is a game that they have to win.  In a pure homerism pick, the Confidential thinks it will happen.  Prediction: Florida State 28, Florida 21.

#13 South Carolina (9-2) @ #12 Clemson (10-1), 7:00 p.m.  The ACC regular season finale ends with a bang, as Clemson looks to avenge its disappointing loss to the Gamecocks last year.  This Clemson team has been scoring at will of late.  Unfortunately, last week the Tigers allowed North Carolina State to pretty much do the same thing.  South Carolina has to be licking its chops.  Homerism prevails again here.  Prediction: Clemson 35, South Carolina 24.

Idle: None

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
15 Nov 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 12

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential struggled to a 4-4 record, making the overall record to a less-respectable 72-28.  On to the week 12 predictions:

Thursday November 15, 2012

North Carolina (6-4) @ Virginia (4-6), 7:30 p.m.  Don’t look now, but Virginia is surging toward a possible bowl game.  After beating bowl-eligible North Carolina State and potentially bowl-eligible Miami, it remains a possibility.  North Carolina just gave up 68 points to Georgia Tech.  Football, not basketball.  Unreal.  The defense will be better this week.  Still, the home team has more to play for.  Prediction: Virginia 31, North Carolina 28.

Saturday November 3, 2012

#10 Florida State (9-1) at Maryland (4-6), 12:00 p.m.  Maryland is a feel-good story this year.  But they are playing with a 5th string QB.  Florida State simply cannot lose this game and be taken seriously as “back.”  Sure, the temptation will be to look ahead to the huge rivalry game with equally impressive Florida.  But these are the games that elite teams win in the first half.  Prediction: Florida State 38, Maryland 6.

Virginia Tech (4-6) @ Boston College (2-8), 12:30 p.m.  As much as Virginia Tech has struggled this year, they still have a chance at a bowl game.  It would be cool if Virginia Tech and Virginia are both 5-6 heading into the rivalry game.  It’s hard to see Boston College stopping the Hokies from being in that position. Prediction: Virginia Tech 27, Boston College 10.

South Florida (3-6) @ Miami (5-5), 3:00 p.m.  The Bulls have struggled with BJ Daniels.  It is hard to see them getting better now that he is lost for the season.  Meanwhile, Miami remains a complete enigma.  A win would be expected here, a loss would not be the least bit surprising either.  But the absence of Daniels and the Hurricanes being at home justify the prediction here.  Prediction: Miami 31 , South Florida 24.

North Carolina State (6-4) @ #11 Clemson (9-1), 3:30 p.m.  The Wolfpack have already ruined Florida State’s national title aspirations; why not ruin Clemson’s BCS bowl hopes too?  Clemson cannot be looking ahead to its rivalry game against South Carolina either.  Much like the Seminoles, the Tigers have to prove that they are elite by avoiding upsets–like last year.  Clemson is rolling and at home.  Prediction: Clemson 35, North Carolina State 20.

Duke (6-4) @ Georgia Tech (5-5), 3:30 p.m.  Who would have thought that this game would have Championship Game implications?  If Duke wins, they will go to the ACC Championship Game.  If Georgia Tech wins, they are still in the hunt for the same opportunity.  Duke has not been a very good road team this year.  Georgia Tech seems to be turning things around.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 42, Duke 31.

Wake Forest (5-5) @ #3 Notre Dame (10-0), 3:30 p.m.  The Fighting Irish have been coasting to their game with USC.  Frankly, if they do not start playing better, they will lose that game.  Brian Kelly will have to get his team motivated for this home game against the Demon Deacons.  Nothing about Wake Forest’s season suggest that they can win this game.  However, teams seem to rise to the occasion when they travel to South Bend.  Prediction: Notre Dame 24, Wake Forest 16.

Syracuse (5-5) @ Missouri (5-5), 7:30 p.m.  The Orange scheduling is just absurd.  Three of the four OOC games were against bowl-eligible FBS teams.  The fourth was against an FCS team, Stony Brook, that is 9-2.  And now they play at Missouri, who is desperate for the win to get to bowl-eligibility.  The Tigers are healthy now too.  Syracuse has struggled on the road and has a more-winnable game looming against Temple next week.  The Confidential is pulling for the Orange, but skeptical.  Prediction: Missouri 28, Syracuse 24.

Idle: Pittsburgh.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
08 Nov 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 11

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential rebounded with a 6-1 record, improving the overall record to a respectable 68-24.  On to the week 11 predictions:

Thursday November 8, 2012

#10 Florida State (8-1) @ Virginia Tech (4-5), 7:30 p.m.  Last week, the Confidential held out hope that Virginia Tech would put it together.  Now?  The Hokies are under .500, with just three games left in the season.  Even if they lose this game, though, winnable games against Boston College and Virginia might allow Va Tech to back into a bowl.  If Florida State loses THIS game, not sure what else can be said about failing to live up to expectations.  The Kings of college football beat 4-5 teams.  Prediction: Florida State 37, Virginia Tech 17.

Friday November 9, 2012

Pittsburgh (4-5) @ UConn (3-6), 8:00 p.m.  Pitt has rallied nicely from that terrible 0-2 start to have a chance at a bowl game.  The schedule is favorable, with road games against the two worst teams in the Big East, UConn and USF.  Gotta get this win.  For UConn, it is unclear whether they will win again under Coach Paul Pasqualoni.  Teams have dominated UConn’s offense in the second half of games.  Pitt’s defense can do the same.  Prediction: Pitt 24, UConn 10.

Saturday November 3, 2012

#9 Louisville (9-0) at Syracuse (4-5), 12:00 p.m.  Want to know the last time Syracuse won a noon game?  1987 maybe.  The Orange simply cannot play well at the noon hour for some reason.  Meanwhile, Louisville presents a matchup that Syracuse will have trouble stopping–a mobile QB and good running backs.  Not that Syracuse cannot win.  It is just not likely enough to be worthy of a prediction.  Prediction: Louisville 34, Syracuse 15.

Miami (5-4) @ Virginia (3-6), 12:00 p.m.  Miami is a tough team to predict.  Just when you give up, they win.  When you buy in, they lose.  Meanwhile, Virginia was left for dead and destroyed North Carolina State.  Virginia has to win out to go to a bowl game. A very tough one to predict.  Prediction: Miami 22, Virginia 14.

Georgia Tech (4-5) @ North Carolina (6-3), 12:30 p.m.  To qualify for a bowl, Georgia will have to beat two of Duke, North Carolina, and Georgia.  Given that Georgia is a top 8 team, this week’s game is a must win.  Meanwhile, North Carolina has nothing to play for except pride.  The Confidential trusts the home team in this game.  Prediction: North Carolina 28, Georgia Tech 24.

Wake Forest (5-4) @ North Carolina State (5-4), 3:00 p.m.  This game is a North Carolina battle for a bowl.  With Notre Dame and Vanderbilt looming, the Demon Deacons need this one.  North Carolina State still has a game against Boston College.  A little less desperate.  The Wolfpack rebound this week.  Prediction: North Carolina State 28, Wake Forest 20.

Maryland (4-5) @ #13 Clemson (8-1), 3:30 p.m.  The Confidential is proud of the job that Maryland has done this year.  And the QB situation is surreal.  But Maryland just does not look capable of playing with Clemson.  If this is close, shame on the Tigers. Prediction:  Clemson 45, Maryland 10.

#4 Notre Dame (9-0) @ Boston College (2-7), 8:00 p.m.  Once upon a time, a terrible Syracuse team coached by Greg Robinson. who was fired earlier in the week and allowed to coach out the season, walked into Notre Dame and upset the Fighting Irish.  Boston College has not put its coaching staff in the same position.  Most importantly, it is Brian Kelly coaching Notre Dame, not Charlie Weis.  It should be ugly. Not close.  Best case scenario is looking ahead too much to Southern Cal.  Prediction: Notre Dame 28, Boston College 9.

Idle: Duke.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
06 Nov 2012

Preseason ACC Basketball Rankings!

While there is plenty of football left to be played, basketball is ready to get started.  With that, here are the Confidential’s preseason ACC basketball rankings:

  1. Syracuse.  With apologies to North Carolina State, Duke, and North Carolina, Jim Boeheim has another great team.  And his best coaching jobs are when he has a young team that will listen to his advice.
  2. North Carolina State.  The Confidential is buying the hype.  If Florida State can win the ACC, why not the Wolfpack?  Looking forward to that early season tilt against Michigan too.
  3. Duke.  With the football team headed to a bowl game, fans have a reason to not pay full attention to the hoop squad.  But Dick Vitale will be smiling… Duke is loaded again.
  4. North Carolina.  Not many teams in college hoops have more talent than the Tar Heels.  #4 could be #1 if it all goes well.
  5. Florida State.  The Seminoles are looking to build off last season’s great finish.  These are good times to be a Florida State fan.
  6. Notre Dame.  If we are including Syracuse and Pitt, no reason not to include the Fighting Irish.  Mr. Brey has himself a decent squad again this year too.
  7. Miami.  Like Florida State, Miami is starting to take advantage of its ACC membership on the hardcourt.  Recruiting to Miami cannot be that hard, can it?
  8. Pittsburgh.  Last year has to be an anomaly, right?  Jamie Dixon is too good a coach to have two straight seasons without the Big Dance.
  9. Virginia.  Virginia’s unusual defensive schemes give offenses fits.  As the talent ramps up, this team will give many teams fits.
  10. Maryland.  The Terps have some talent and they certainly have a talented coaching staff.  Time to start winning more games.
  11. Virginia Tech.  The Hokies have a new coach, which could mean that they take a step back or a step forward from this projection.
  12. Georgia Tech. Things have to be better for the Yellow Jackets this year.  A new home arena should help juice the program up a bit.
  13. Clemson.  The Tigers are young.  But they have the depth to make some games very interesting this year.
  14. Boston College.  This team had to deal with youth last year.  This year will be a stepping stone to good things in 2013-2014.
  15. Wake Forest.  The Demon Deacons are very very young.  Going to be a long season, most likely.

So there it is.  Soon enough we’ll all find out whether the Confidential was on target.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Predictions, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
01 Nov 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 10

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential limped to a 4-3 record, making the overall record a respectable 62-23.  On to the week 10 predictions:

Thursday November 1, 2012

Virginia Tech (4-4) @ Miami (4-4), 7:30 p.m.  Well, who the heck knows?  Will it be the Virginia Tech team that took care of business against Duke or the one that lost to Pittsburgh and Cincinnati?  Will it be the Miami team that has won 3 conference games or the one that has been blown out by Notre Dame and Kansas State.  Actually, those two teams are pretty good, as are North Carolina and Florida State.  Miami has lost to the better slate of opponents.  Been a long long time since Frank Beamer was below .500 this late in the season.  In fact, it was 1992, the last time the Hokies did not win 7 or more games.  Again, this one could go either way.  Edge to home team.  Prediction: Miami 27, Virginia Tech 24.

Saturday November 3, 2012

Syracuse (4-4) @ Cincinnati (5-2), 12:00 p.m.  Want to know the last time Syracuse won 3 conference games in a row?  2001.  That was Syracuse’s last 10-win season.  In fact, Syracuse has only one 3 games in a row three times since that season.  In 2002, Syracuse beat Rutgers, Central Florida, and Virginia Tech.  In 2006, Syracuse beat Illinois, Miami (OH), and Wyoming.  In 2010, Syracuse beat Maine (FCS), Colgate (FCS), and South Florida.  Cincinnati’s schedule is the reason they are 5-2, but the Confidential cannot help but note that it is not 2014 yet.  There will not be a 3-game winning streak for the ‘Cuse.  Prediction: Cincinnati 24, Syracuse 17.

Georgia Tech (3-5) @ Maryland (4-4), 12:30 p.m.  Before the season, the Confidential would have predicted a 30-point win for the Yellow Jackets.  If Maryland had a QB, the Confidential would predict a win for Maryland.  Using a linebacker–even a struggling Georgia Tech team HAS to be able to win this game.  If not…. wow.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 24, Maryland 10.

Virginia (2-6) @ North Carolina State (5-3), 12:30 p.m.  Well, it is safe to say that Virginia has not lived up to expectations.  North Carolina State is right where it always seems to be–too good to look past, too bad to assume a win.  The Wolfpack have to be able to take care of a struggling Virginia team though.  That 6th win is sitting there hoping to be achieved.  Prediction: North Carolina State 28, Virginia 15.

Boston College (2-6) @ Wake Forest (4-4), 3:00 p.m.  Boston College got a win!  Boston College got a win!  Remember, this team closed strong last year.  But winning on the road, even against a vulnerable Wake Forest team, seems unlikely.  It’s games like these that may get the Demon Deacons a bowl.  And if they lose this one, they do not deserve a bowl.  Prediction: Wake Forest 20, Boston College 13.

Pittsburgh (4-4) @ #3 Notre Dame (8-0), 3:30 p.m.  On paper, Notre Dame has one big game left–its tilt against rival Southern Cal.  On paper, Pitt, Wake Forest, and Boston College do not pose a threat.  On paper, the favorite always wins.  In real life, the favorite occasionally gets upset.  But there is something about a Notre Dame coach named Kelly proving that the Fighting Irish are “back.”  They might not go undefeated, but this one seems to easy to predict an upset for Notre Dame to be looking past the Panthers.  Prediction:  Notre Dame 27, Pitt 17.

#13 Clemson (7-1) @ Duke (6-3), 7:00 p.m.  The ACC game of the week.  This is two weeks in a row for the Blue Devils.  Last week was terrible.  This week may be terrible again.  Clemson is not that much inferior to Florida State.  However, Duke is at home for this one–unlike its losses to Stanford, Va Tech, and FSU.  So Dick Vitale will not have to close his eyes during this game–it will be closer.   Not close.  Closer.  Prediction: Clemson 38, Duke 21.

Idle: North Carolina & Florida State

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
25 Oct 2012
1 Comment

ACC Football Predictions for Week 9

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential surged to a 6-2 record, elevating the overall record to a respectable 58-20.  On to the week 9 predictions:

Thursday October 25, 2012

#14 Clemson (6-1) @ Wake Forest (4-3), 7:30 p.m.  Clemson needs to avoid a late season slump.  This is exactly the type of game that could easily lead to a loss and subsequent November swoon.  With the whole nation watching, Clemson needs to rise to the occasion.  Meanwhile, the Demon Deacons are still looking for a signature win this year.  It aint coming this week.  Prediction: Clemson 27, Wake Forest 17.

Saturday October 27, 2012

Temple (3-3) @ Pittsburgh (3-4), noon.  Temple has 2 Big East wins, while Pittsburgh has zero.  In the battle for Pennsylvania, Pittsburgh has the home field advantage though.  We’ll see how much pride the Panthers can display.  One has to figure that Pittsburgh will rise to the occasion.  Prediction: Pittsburgh 21, Temple 10.

North Carolina State (5-2) @ North Carolina (5-3), 12:30 p.m.  This is sort of the battle for North Carolina–at least with respect to the public Universities.  Both teams have been decent and the winner will get to 6 wins.  While there is no bowl eligibility for the Tar Heels, N.C. State has eyes on a bowl.  This is a tough one to call.  Prediction: North Carolina 28, North Carolina State 20.

Maryland (4-3) @ Boston College (1-6), 1:00 p.m.  At the beginning of the year, this would have seemed like a key game for Boston College to get a conference win.  Now, it is hard to envision Boston College defeating the surprising Terrapins.  With Maryland starting to smell a bowl game, and Boston College floundering, look for the visiting team to pull out a win.  Prediction: Maryland 21, Boston College 14.

Brigham Young (4-4) @ Georgia Tech (3-4), 3:00 p.m.  Brigham Young has had trouble scoring, which is usually not a problem for Georgia Tech.  But BYU looked great against Notre Dame.  Still, the Yellow Jackets have too much pride to let a team come into Atlanta and steal a win.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 28, Brigham Young 9.

Duke (6-2) @ #11 Florida State (7-1), 3:30 p.m.  The ACC game of the week.  Duke is bowl eligible, which may mean that they will have a let down.  And Florida State is at home.  This game will be the true test of just how far the Blue Devils have come.  After losing to Virginia Tech and Stanford on the road, the Confidential has to go with the Seminoles.   Prediction: Florida State 44, Duke 9.

Syracuse (3-4) @ South Florida (2-5), 7:00 p.m.  Florida State struggled to beat South Florida on the road.  Syracuse is a 3-4 team with no wins on the road.  If Syracuse wants to get to a bowl game, they will need to win this game.  If South Florida wants to go to a bowl, losing here would be catastrophic.  Syracuse wants to win, but the Bulls must win.  Prediction: South Florida 28, Syracuse 20.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,
19 Oct 2012

ACC Football Predictions for Week 8

The Confidential’s football predictions for this week’s games featuring ACC teams.  The Confidential struggled to a 3-3 record–the worst week of the season.   Still, the Confidential is at a respectable 52-18 so far.  On to the week 8 predictions:

Friday October 19, 2012

Connecticut (3-3) @ Syracuse (2-4), 8:00 p.m.  The Orange simply cannot lose this game.  If the Doug Marrone era is not going to fall completely off the tracks, Syracuse needs to win this much of a winnable game.  UConn is struggling and coached by the guy Syracuse fired.  Just a must win.  Prediction: Syracuse 24, UConn 17.

Saturday October 20, 2012

Virginia Tech (4-3) @ #14 Clemson (5-1), noon.  This is a rematch of last year’s conference title game, but the teams are headed in different directions right now.  Virginia Tech had to rally to beat Duke, while Clemson has only lost to Florida State.  Given that Clemson is at home, as well as Virginia Tech’s defensive mortality, it is difficult to pick Virginia Tech to pull the upset.  Prediction: Clemson 35-Virginia Tech 24.

Wake Forest (3-3) @ Virginia (2-5), 12:30 p.m.  The Demon Deacons have been absolutely, positively mediocre.  Virginia is jealous of that right now.  Again, however, Virginia is the home team, which has to count for something.  The Confidential just does not see Wake Forest taking the win here.  Prediction: Virginia 21, Wake Forest 20.

Boston College (1-5) @ Georgia Tech (2-4), 3:00 p.m.  Boston College has been downright awful this year, with no wins over FBS teams.  Georgia Tech has been equally bad lately.  This two teams are at and/or near the basement in the ACC right now.  Like Syracuse, Georgia Tech simply MUST win this game.  Prediction: Georgia Tech 38-Boston College 13.

Pittsburgh (2-4) @ Buffalo (1-5), 3:30 p.m.  The Steelers and Bills face off in a clash of old industrial towns.  Wait, what?  Pittsburgh lost its momentum after the Virginia Tech win.  Buffalo has never really had any momentum yet.  One has to think the Bulls will be fired up for this rare visit from a BCS-level team.  Still, Pitt has to win this one, right?  Prediction: Pittsburgh 36, Buffalo 10.

North Carolina State (4-2) @ Maryland (4-2), 3:30 p.m.  While North Carolina State is not too much of a surprise, Maryland certainly is.  Good thing that Terrapins fans did not run Randy Edsall out of town.  Most likely.  Maryland does have to play a bunch of good teams down the stretch.  Reality sets in this week.  Prediction: North Carolina State 27, Maryland 14.

North Carolina (5-2) @ Duke (5-2), 7:00 p.m.  Obviously, a great basketball matchup, this is a pretty darn good football game this year.  For Duke, the season-ending slate is simply brutal.  This may be their last, best chance to get to bowl-eligibility.  Who better than the Tar Heels to stop them?  Prediction: North Carolina 24, Duke 20.

#12 Florida State (6-1) @ Miami (4-3), 8:00 p.m.  Miami has been tough to figure out.  There is really nothing in their performance to suggest that they can win this game.  Then again, there is everything out there to suggest that Florida State could simply lose it.  Typically, however, Florida State stumbles most egregiously in North Carolina.  Prediction: Florida State 45-Miami 20.

The Confidential apologizes in advance for not picking your team.  A lot of close games here.  Feel free to share why we are wrong. 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football, Predictions and tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

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