The Confidential

The ACC Sports Blog

14 Mar 2012
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Adjust Your Brackets–Fab Melo is Out for Syracuse

The 2011-2012 Syracuse basketball team has been a rollercoaster.  The latest development is Syracuse’s announcement that Center Fab Melo will miss the NCAA tournament for what is reportedly an academic eligibility issue.  While some had questioned whether this Syracuse team would get to the Final Four with Melo–at least the way it had played lately–there is little doubt that a Melo-less Orange team is not a national championship contender.

Of course, the first question is why Melo is ineligible?  Do not expect clarity on that issue, as ESPN reported the following: “‘Given University policy and federal student privacy laws, no further details can be provided at this time,’ the Syracuse website said.”  So do not expect a statement from Syracuse on the issue.

Also, initial ESPN reports that the NCAA had determined Melo to be ineligible are also not true, as ESPN later clarified as follows: “Melo was declared ineligible by Syracuse, not the NCAA, according to Bob Williams, the NCAA vice president of communications.”

The media is also inconsistent as to whether this announcement was related to Melo’s three-game suspension from earlier in the year.  ESPN’s Dana O’Neill reported that a source indicated that Melo was declared ineligible “for academic issues related to those that forced him to sit three games earlier in the season.”  In contrast, CBS’s Seth Davis is apparently reporting that the suspension is in regard to an entirely different issue.  See Troy Nunes is an Absolute Magician for more on this conflict.

Regardless of the “why,” the impact of Melo’s absence huge.  He was the Big East Defensive Player of the Year.  And his screens were a valuable part of the Syracuse offense.  Meanwhile, he was the only Syracuse player that was even competent rebounding.  So, while Syracuse could still make a deep run–it is difficult to envision this team surviving such a major loss this late in the season.  It will take a great effort by the remaining players just to make it to the Final Four.

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , ,
13 Mar 2012

ACC Basketball Rankings: March 13, 2012

Here is how the Confidential ranks the ACC basketball schools as of March 13, 2012:

1. Syracuse (31-2)  Notwithstanding the loss to Cincinnati, Syracuse has been the best ACC team from start to finish.

2. North Carolina (29-5)  Sure, the Tar Heels were swept by Florida State.  But Florida State had four more losses overall.

3. Duke (27-6)  Like North Carolina, Duke lost to Florida State twice.  Again, however, the upsets of Duke were far more reasonable.

4. Florida State (24-9)  Give the Seminoles credit for the head-to-head victories over the teams above them here.  But to win it all, you’ve got to win the winnable games too.

5. Virginia (22-9)  Virginia has been struggling for weeks now.  Good, but not great.

6. North Carolina State (22-12).  The Wolfpack rallied in the ACC tournament to get off the bubble and into the Big Dance.  Likely at Miami’s expense.

7. Miami (19-12)  A good first season for the new Miami coaching staff.  The NIT will be good for this team, as long as they take it seriously.

8. Clemson (16-15)  At 8-8 in conference play during the regular season, Clemson fell to Virginia Tech in the ACC tourney.  Season was a stepping stone though.

9. Maryland (17-15)  At 6-10 in conference play, Maryland actually made progress.  Consider that this team was 3-3 heading into December.

10. Pittsburgh (17-16)  After starting 13-2, the team finished 4-14.  12 of those 16 losses were to teams in the Big Dance field.

11.  Virginia Tech (16-17)  A disappointing record obviously.  At some point, you’ve got to win a lot more of the close, winnable games.

12. Wake Forest (13-18) Like all the teams down this far, the Demon Deacons were a significant disappointment all season long.

13. Georgia Tech (11-20).  The new coaching staff did not have much success.  Next year should be better.

14. Boston College (9-22)  The Eagles were so young this year that the future is actually quite bright.  These were freshmen struggling, not juniors.

Agree?  Disagree?  Let us know!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , , ,
12 Mar 2012

No 2012 Bowl for the North Carolina Tar Heels

No matter how well the 2012 North Carolina Tar Heels’ football team performs next year, a bowl game is out of the question.  The NCAA announced a series of sanctions against North Carolina that will include a 2012 bowl ban.

The sanctions arise out of accusations that former assistant coach John Blake had business and financial ties to a sports agency Pro Tect Management and agent Gary Wichard, which conferred improper benefits on various players including former star defensive tackle Marvin Austin. The NCAA infraction committee further determined as follows:

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill is responsible for multiple violations, including academic fraud, impermissible agent benefits, ineligible participation and a failure to monitor its football program.

Over the course of three seasons, six football student-athletes competed while ineligible as a result of these violations, and multiple student-athletes received impermissible benefits totaling more than $31,000.

While employed by the university, a former assistant football coach [John Blake] was compensated by a sports agent [Gary Wichard] for the access he provided to student-athletes and failed to disclose the income to the university. The former assistant coach and a former tutor [Wiley] both committed unethical conduct and failed to cooperate with the investigation.

North Carolina attempted to avoid sanctions by self-imposing various penalties, such as suspending players for games or the season, firing head coach Butch Davis, forcing Blake to resign, reducing scholarships, and vacating wins.  While the NCAA was apparently impressed by the scope of the sanctions enough to take it into consideration, it still concluded that additional sanctions were required.

So North Carolina’s total sanctions amounts to a daunting list:

  • Loss of bowl eligibility for 2012
  • Forfeiture of 15 scholarships over the next three seasons
  • Three years probation
  • A $50,000 fine
  • Vacating all football victories from the 2008 and 2009 seasons.
  • Certain individuals also must be disassociated from the program for a varying period, including former tutor Jennifer Wiley and former Tar Heels wideout Hakeem Nicks.

In addition, Blake received a three-year “show cause,” effectively preventing him from NCAA employment for the near future.

All in all, these are pretty stiff penalties for North Carolina.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Football and tagged , , , ,
12 Mar 2012

The Brackets Are Unveiled and the ACC is Well-Represented

Selection Sunday has come and gone, and the NCAA has revealed the 68 teams that will compete for the National Championship.  And the ACC is well-represented in this year’s Big Dance.

North Carolina was–as expected–given a #1 seed in the Midwest.  In fact, the Tar Heels received the #3 overall seed.  They will play the winner of a play-in game between Lamar and Vermont.  The looming 8-9 matchup for North Carolina is Creighton-Alabama.

In a move that was also expected, Duke was given a #2 seed.  The Blue Devils were assigned to the South region, where Kentucky is the #1 seed.  Duke will begin play against Lehigh.  The looming 7-10 matchup for Duke is a tough one–#7 Notre Dame vs. #10 Xavier.

On the strength of their run through the ACC tournament, Florida State was given a #3 seed in the East.  The #1 seed is Syracuse, while the #2 seed in the East is Ohio State.  The Seminoles will begin play against St. Bonaventure.  If they win that game, they will face the winner of the game between #6 Cincinnati and #11 Texas.

Virginia fell all the way to a #10 seed and was shipped out West.  They will play the #7 seed Florida, who may be a bit underseeded.  Even if Virginia wins, a very tough #2 seed in Missouri awaits.  Michigan State was the #1 seed in the West.

North Carolina State was given an 11 seed.  They will begin play against the #6 seed in the Midwest region, San Diego State.  If the Wolfpack wins, they will play the winner of #3 Georgetown and #14 Belmont.

As noted above, Syracuse was the #1 seed in the East.  They will begin play against #16 seed North Carolina-Ashville.  If they take care of business there, the #8-#9 matchup features Kansas State and Southern Mississippi.

Obviously, this means that Miami did not make the cut.  While the general consensus is that Iona was the only questionable addition to the field, the greater focus is on the exclusion of Drexel.  Like all bubble teams, Miami had its chances and fell short.  The NIT certainly awaits though.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , , , , , , ,
11 Mar 2012

ACC Basketball Recap: Third Round ACC Tournament Action

The third round of the ACC Conference Championship has concluded.  The Championship games is now set, with North Carolina facing Florida State.

Of the two semifinal games, the only one with NCAA tournament implications was the North Carolina-North Carolina State matchup.  After losing to North Carolina, 69-67, the Wolfpack are going to have to sweat it out today when the field of 68 is announced.  This was a golden opportunity for a win because the Tar Heels were forced to play without John Henson, who has a sprained wrist.  But North Carolina still had Tyler Zeller, who contributed 23 points and 9 rebounds.  Meanwhile, Harrison Barnes added 16 points and Kendall Marshall had 10 assists.  The Wolfpack were led by CJ Leslie’s 22 points and 7 rebounds, all the more impressive since he fouled out with 8 minutes to go.  The Wolfpack bench lost track of the foul totals.  North Carolina improved to 29-4, while North Carolina State fell to 22-12.

In the other semifinal matchup, Florida State defeated Duke, 62-59.  Florida State led by as many as 10 points in the second-half, but Duke had two chances to tie the game in the final seconds.  Michael Snaer led the Seminoles with 16 points.  Austin Rivers led the Blue Devils with 19 points.  With the loss, Duke drops to 27-6.  With the win, Florida State improves to 23-9.

The results of these games mean that Florida State with play North Carolina for the ACC Championship.  In their prior meeting, Florida State embarrassed North Carolina 90-57.  Naturally, the Tar Heels will be looking for revenge.

 

 

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , ,
10 Mar 2012
1 Comment

Latest Mock Brackets–North Carolina State and Miami Still Nervous

With only one game left involving ACC teams, and few games left overall, the mock brackets are increasingly relevant.  For Miami and North Carolina State, there will be no exhaling until they see good news when the brackets are announced.  In the meantime, all anyone can do is look at what the experts are predicting.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi has North Carolina State in the field, but Miami on the outside.  This is unchanged.  Overall, Lunardi considers the bubble to be 17 teams fighting for 9 spots.  And, really, it is not clear that Seton Hall’s profile is that much better than Miami’s.  The tournament committee may very well conclude that 9 Big East teams are plenty and allow Miami to take that spot.

Also at ESPN, Bubble Watch had this to say about the ACC, North Carolina State, and Miami:

After NC State’s close loss to rival North Carolina on Saturday, the remaining ACC bubble teams have officially bowed out of the conference postseason. So where do they stand? Miami is in trouble after Friday’s loss to Florida State, but not totally out of the picture, depending on how much weight the committee gives to that marquee win at Duke. NC State, meanwhile, has to feel more confident about its bid. If the committee saw Saturday’s loss (preceded by a win over Virginia), they saw a team play one of the nation’s best close for all 40 minutes — the last eight of which came without its best player, C.J. Leslie, who fouled out on a massive mistake by the NCSU coaching staff — and one that received the worst end of a universally bad officiating performance by the ACC referees. (When Pack fans complain that Duke and UNC get all the calls, Kendall Marshall’s apparent game-winning charge is what they mean.) In any case, the committee was no doubt in front of the TV, and even without the win, NC State’s effort seems likely to be rewarded.

North Carolina State [22-12 (9-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 30] Mark Gottfried’s team entered the day as one of Joe Lunardi’s last four teams in the tournament, which is a pretty good spot to be in when your worst-case scenario is a loss to putative No. 1 seed North Carolina. An uncompetitive blowout loss might have changed this status for the worse, but what NC State did — playing UNC close to the final buzzer, and getting the wrong end of a couple of key calls (the refs were bad for both teams, but there’s little question that NC State felt the lion’s share of the pain) — certainly can’t hurt their chances, can it? The Pack is far from a lock, of course (there’s that pesky 1-8 record against the top 50), but they’re in much better shape than when they arrived in Atlanta. That much is for sure.

Miami (FL) [19-12 (9-7), RPI: 58, SOS: 51] Can the Hurricanes still get in the tournament? To do so, they’ll need some help, some confluence of bubble losses around them that pave the way, because after Friday night’s loss to Florida State, Jim Larranaga’s team finds itself most likely outside the bubble (as per Joe Lunardi) — and without another game to boost its credentials with less than 48 hours until the bracket is revealed. After Friday’s loss, Miami is 2-8 against the RPI top 50, with a good win over Florida State and a great win at Duke but only one other victory — and three more losses (or 3-11 overall) — in the top 100. The near-60 RPI isn’t necessarily prohibitive, but it ain’t pretty. Taken as a whole with the rest of this profile, there’s just not as much here as you’d like. Miami’s fate is in the committee’s hands, and if we had to guess, we’d say the Canes aren’t going to like what they hear Sunday. But hey, it’s March. You never know.

Not exactly painting the ACC referees with a positive picture.  In any event, the commentary regarding the resumes of both teams is accurate enough for both teams to expect to sweat it out tomorrow.

One other very interesting thing was the report that the tournament committee has already selected the at-large teams.  All that is left is seeding.  It makes some sense given the absence of bubble teams still playing.  But it is surprising that someone would go so far as to say it.  If you are a bubble team, you are hoping that due consideration was given to your resume.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball and tagged , , , ,
10 Mar 2012

ACC Basketball Recap: Second Round ACC Tournament Action

The second round of the ACC Conference Championship has concluded.  Four teams advanced on March 9, 2012: North Carolina State, Duke, North Carolina, and Florida State.

As noted yesterday, North Carolina State is a team that many consider to be on the wrong side of the bubble.  So it was huge for the Wolfpack to come up with a victory over Virginia in the ACC Tournament, 67-64.  The big hero for North Carolina State was CJ Leslie, who scored 19 points and added 14 rebounds.  With the win, North Carolina State will move on to play North Carolina.  Mike Scott led Virginia with 23 points and 10 rebounds.

The news was not as good for Miami.  Florida State defeated the Hurricanes, 82-71.  The Seminoles were led by Michael Snaer’s 20 points.   Shane Larkin led Miami with 16 points.  Joe Lunardi has Miami as the second team in the “Last Four Out.”  For more analysis on Miami’s chances, see here.

In the other quarterfinal games, Duke defeated Virginia Tech, 60-56.  North Carolina defeated Maryland, 85-69.  In New York City, Syracuse suffered only its second loss of the season, losing to Cincinnati, 71-68.  The biggest news of these three games, however, was the wrist injury suffered by John Henson.  Right now, it is being called a sprain.

Saturday’s games:

  • #1 North Carolina v #5 North Carolina State 1:00 pm
  • #2 Duke v #3 Florida State, 3:00 pm

The Championship game will, of course, be Sunday afternoon.

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , ,
09 Mar 2012

ACC Basketball Recap: First Round ACC Tournament Action

The first round of the ACC Conference Championship has concluded.  Four teams advanced on March 8, 2012: Maryland, Virginia Tech, North Carolina State, and Miami.

North Carolina State is a team that many consider to be on the wrong side of the bubble.  Joe Lunardi has North Carolina State as the 4th team “out” of the Big Dance.  A loss to Boston College would have destroyed the Wolfpack’s chances.  Instead, North Carolina State improved to 21-11 with a 78-57 win over the Eagles. Scott Wood led North Carolina State with 22 points.  While North Carolina State will need to win at least one more game to have a chance at cracking the field of 68, they took care of business in beating Boston College.  The Eagles, whose season ends with a 9-22 record, were led by Ryan Anderson’s 22 points and 12 rebounds.

Joe Lunardi also considers Miami on the wrong side of the bubble.  So it was important for Miami to avoid that bubble bursting when it played struggling Georgia Tech.  The Hurricanes did exactly that, beating the Yellow Jackets, 54-36.  In other words, less offense than a typical MAC football game.  Shane Larkin led the Hurricanes, who improved to 19-11, with 12 points.  Mfon Udofia led Georgia Tech, whose season ends with an 11-20 record, with 13 points.

In other games: Virginia Tech improved to 16-16 by defeating Clemson, 68-63.  Point guard Erick Green led Virginia Tech with 24 points, while Tanner Smith led Clemson with 12 points.  Maryland defeated Wake Forest 82-60 to improve to 17-14.  Terrell Stoglin scored 25 points to lead Maryland, while Wake Forest–whose season ended at 13-18–was led by Travis McKie’s 22 points.  Also, Syracuse improved to 31-1 by defeating Connecticut 58-55.  Dion Waiters led Syracuse with 18 points.

Friday’s games:

  • #1 North Carolina v #8 Maryland, noon
  • #4 Virginia v #5 North Carolina State 2:00 pm
  • #2 Duke v #10 Virginia Tech, 7:00 pm
  • #1 Syracuse v #4 Cincinnati, 7:00 pm
  • #3 Florida State v #6 Miami, 9:00 pm

For North Carolina State and Miami, the only option is winning.

 

 

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Game Review and tagged , , , , , , , ,
08 Mar 2012

ACC Lacrosse Weekly Report 4, March 8, 2012

Amazingly, the ACC lacrosse season is already a few weeks old.

News:

The Inside Lacrosse poll has Virginia #1, receiving 19 of the 20 first place votes.  Maryland is #4, Syracuse is #6, North Carolina is #8, and Duke is #9.  The USILA Coaches Poll is the same, except that Virginia has all 9 first place votes and Duke is ranked #11.

Recap of Last Week:

Saturday, March 3, 2012

Maryland 10, Duke 7.  “Senior Drew Snider had a hat trick to lead the No. 5 Maryland men’s lacrosse team to at 10-7 victory over No. 8 Duke in front of 4,137 at Capital One Field at Byrd Stadium Saturday afternoon.”

Lehigh 9, North Carolina 8.  “Lehigh outscored North Carolina 5-0 over a span of 25:11 from the second through fourth quarters and went on to beat the fourth-ranked Tar Heels 9-8 at Fetzer Field Saturday night. The loss was the first for the Tar Heels against an unranked team at Fetzer Field since March 5, 2004 when Navy downed Carolina 9-8 in overtime.”

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Virginia 14, Syracuse 10.  “Colin Briggs scored three goals and assisted another to help the No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (5-0) top the No. 3 Syracuse Orange (2-1) on Sunday evening, 14-10, in front of 5,855 fans inside Klöckner Stadium.”

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

UMBC 8, Maryland 7.

Penn 10, North Carolina 6.

Virginia 16, Vermont 10.

Upcoming Games:

Saturday, March 10, 2012:

North Carolina v Princeton.

Duke @ Loyala.

Marist @ Maryland.

Virginia v Cornell

Syracuse @ St. John’s.

Monday, March 12, 2012:

Harvard @ Duke.

Records:

Virginia 6-0 (0-0 in conference).

Maryland 3-1 (1-0 in conference)

North Carolina 4-2 (0-0 in conference)

Duke 3-2 (0-1 in conference)

Syracuse 2-1

The Confidential’s ACC Lacrosse Rankings:

1.  Virginia (6-0).  Virginia has been simply dominant this year.

2.  Syracuse (2-1).  Syracuse tested Virginia for a significant time, before ultimately falling.

3.  Maryland (3-1).  Despite the loss to UMBC, Maryland did beat Duke in a conference matchup.

4.  North Carolina (4-2).  North Carolina’s losses to Lehigh and Penn were disappointments.

5.  Duke (3-2).  No shame in losing to Maryland.  But that’s two losses now for Duke. 

If you have any comments on the ACC Lacrosse season or this entry, please feel free to share!

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Lacrosse and tagged , , , , , , , ,
07 Mar 2012

The Confidential’s Basketball Top 30 for March 7, 2012

With over 300 teams in college basketball, the top 25 is just not enough anymore.  Here is the Confidential’s Top 30 for March 7, 2012:

  1. Syracuse (30-1).  Syracuse looked very good in its home finale against Louisville, a team that has historically solved the 2-3 zone.
  2. Kentucky (30-1).  Kentucky is a team on a mission.  Is this the year for Coach Calipari?
  3. North Carolina (27-4).  The preseason favorites are rounding into form at the right time.  Nobody will want to play the Tar Heels.
  4. Kansas (26-5).  There has been a lot of rotation between the teams ranked 3rd through 8th… this week Kansas moves up to #4.
  5. Missouri (27-4).  Missouri looked very good defeating Iowa State and Texas Tech.  Recovered from a tough week the week before.
  6. Duke (26-5).  Lost big to North Carolina, leaving the Blue Devils with 2nd place in the ACC.  Tiebreaker in the ACC tournament perhaps?
  7. Ohio State (25-6).  Wins over motivated teams like Northwestern and Michigan State suggest that Ohio State is also peaking at the right time.
  8. Marquette (25-6).  Loss at Cincinnati was disappointing, but Marquette handled a very good Georgetown team to end the regular season.
  9. Michigan State (24-7).  No real shame in losing to Indiana and Ohio State.  Being handled by Indiana, even on the road, was surprising.
  10. Georgetown (22-7).  The Hoyas split a tough week–beating Notre Dame and losing to Marquette.  The slight edge over Baylor due to foe quality.
  11. Baylor (25-6).  Iowa State really needed to beat Baylor.  And did.  The Bears are still primed to make some noise in March Madness.
  12. Michigan (23-8).  Michigan got important wins to keep its hopes for a #3 seed alive, even if Illinois and Penn State are not great teams.
  13. Wisconsin (23-8).  The Badgers got two more wins, over Minnesota and Illinois, keep pace with the Big 10 leaders.
  14. Indiana (24-7).  Wins over Michigan State and Purdue–a great way to end the surprise turnaround season.  Especially in a deep year for the Big 10.
  15. Murray State (30-1).  Murray State struggled in the conference tournament championship game, but pulled out the victory late.  Teams on the bubble everywhere exhaled.
  16. Florida State (21-9).  The Seminoles finished strong, beating Virginia and suddenly challenging Clemson during the final week.  A lot of good wins for this Seminole team.
  17. Creighton (28-5).  With so many teams ahead of them losing, Creighton takes advantage with its three-win sweep of the Missouri Valley Conference tournament.
  18. San Diego State (24-6).  Like Creighton, San Diego State was able to avoid losing this past week.  Even if the wins were not overly impressive, they did not lose.
  19. UNLV (25-7).  UNLV lost to Colorado State, but rallied to defeat a good Wyoming team to end the regular season.  Up next?  Wyoming again.
  20. Wichita State (27-5).  The Shockers were shocked in the MWC tournament by Illinois State.  Still, this team is looking solid for an at-large bid.
  21. Notre Dame (21-10).  Notre Dame got back in the winning way with a victory over Providence.  Now it is on to the Big Apple to make some noise in the Big East tournament.
  22. Virginia (22-8).  Virginia lost to Florida State at home, which hurt.  But they got a key overtime win over Maryland to stop the losing streak.
  23. Louisville (22-9).  The Cardinals are really struggling offensively right now.  Also playing and losing to very good teams.
  24. Florida (22-9).  No shame in losing at Vanderbilt and to Kentucky.  But the Gators are really tacking on the losses right now.
  25. Temple (24-6).  A couple of nice wins over Massachusetts and Fordham to end the season on a high note.  A very good profile for the Owls.
  26. Virginia Commonwealth (28-6).  Three more wins for Virginia Commonwealth.  Big win to qualify for the Big Dance.
  27. Iowa State (22-9).  In a week with games against Missouri and Baylor, winning the home game and losing the road game is a fine result.  A tourney lock at this point.
  28. St. Mary’s (27-5).  St. Mary’s gets the edge over Gonzaga by defeating them in the West Coast Conference tournament championship game.
  29. Gonzaga (25-6).  See above.
  30. Vanderbilt (21-10).  Vandy responded to the nice win against Florida by losing to in-state rival Tennessee to conclude the season.

Tell us what you think.  Is anyone unfairly missing?  Anyone too high or too low?

Posted by acaffrey in ACC only, Basketball, Rankings and tagged , , , , , ,

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